21ST CENTURY WAVES: FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY BOOMS AND HUMAN

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services have leveled the t be given credit for raisshy~an any previous innovashyhe knowledge differential rrow will be full of surshyacts marketed within the i1hing yet

lsearch Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006

21ST CENTURY WAVES FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY BOOMS

AND HUMAN EXPANSION INTO THE COSMOS

by

Bruce Cordell

INTRODUCTION

On the following pagesmay be one of the most important scientific symposiums ever published by a national magazine It is the story of the inevitability of mans conquest of space (It) is not science fiction It is serious factthe US must immediately embark on a long-range development proshygram

These stunning words appeared in 1952 in the famous March 22nd issue of Colliers Magazine I The headline asked What Are We Waiting For while the preceding page insisted that Man Will Conquer Space Soon and featured an image of some of the Space Ages key heroes inc~uding the great rocket scientist Wernher von Braun Harvard astronomer Fred Whipple famous space writer Willy Ley and the unparalleled space artist Chesley Bonestell

They were right Only 17 years after the Colliers article Apollo astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed on the Moon in 1969 But it is important to realize that although we are well into the first decade of the 21st century our economic teclmoshylogical and strategic position today-viewed in the context of longshyterm trends-is highly analogous to that of von Braun in 1952 In fact it is forecast here that in less than 20 years we will experience the next wave of extraordinary events in space including probably the first humans on Mars and major tourist and industrial operations in space and on the Moon The purpose of this article is to briefly sketch answers to the following questions 1) How can we scientificshycally make a forecast like this with high confidence 2) What are

Bruce Cordell is formerly a program manager with General Dynamics Space Division in San Diego and currently is with Fullerton College in Orange County CA His email iscordelluclalumninet

Futures Rese~rch Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006 21 I I l

LPOLICY ~ses both an evolving philosophy llry objective is to assist decisionshylltential consequences of present images of alternative futures It iins in sociology more recently in Jcial sciences It has independent lltional planning in strategic and icant contemporary roots in govshyecurity Successful practice of fushy~s both from established academic lciplinary fields as technology asshy

Futures Research Quarterly

nns research issues management Volume 22 Number 3 Fall 2006

lly is a refereed journal A prestishy~w Board has been established to ]es submitted for publication Fushy~ncourage and facilitate communishytitioners in all related fields and Ill and economic sectors It is also anding and education in the methshy[he concern of the editors is thus md planning tools we wish also to lllfes research in the larger context

articles Futures Research Quarshyne responsible reactions to articles short notes from Editorial Board

f pertinent classic papers and reshyports Because it is not possible alshyhin the confines of a single Futures y upon our readers to provide the responses to controversial or one-

Ilt this journal shall provide a forum Illved with the theory methodology Ih Iitor ny Mack

hed by lure Society Avenue Suite 450 IaryIand 20814 ISA

CONTENTS

The Future of Collecting and Auctions by James L Halperin 5

21 st Century Waves Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos

by Bruce Cordell 21

The Mechanization of Mind A Deconstruction of Two Contemporary Intelligence Theorists

by Marcus Anthony 43

SPECIAL FEATURE

Best Recent Books and Reports Selections from Future Survey for Leaders and Readers (Part I)

by Michael Marien 63

-------------- ---- -

I

21 0t Century Waves 8 Cordell

we waiting for this time 3) What are some of the near-term ecoshynomic technological and political events we can expect that will culminate near 2025 in the greatest technology and space spectacular ever seen

A decade ago I wrote in Space PoUci that long-term trends in science technology and human history strongly suggested that the decade from 2015 to 2025 would be the economic technological and political analog of the 1960s We should expect unprecedented activities in technology engineering and human exploration the focus will be on large-scale human operations in space This foreshycast was reasonable if one views 1960s-style space exploration within the context of other science technology and exploration acshytivities of the last 200 years Indeed it became clear that major epishysodes of human exploration (eg Lewis and Clark) huge state-ofshythe-art engineering projects (eg Panama Canal) and exceptionally destructive wars (eg Civil War) cluster together roughly every 56 years near the times of economic booms I hypothesized that a Hushyman Exploration (HE) wave-driven mostly by intangible psychoshylogical and spiritual needs-exists with a period of approximately 56 years and could be documented over at least the last 200 years The exploration wave is in phase with surges in macro-engineering proshyjects (MEPs) and major wars apparently because they are driven dishyrectly by the same thing an economic boom about every 56 years

This empirical historical approach enables useful predictions for the 21 st century to be made solely by analogy with waves and events of the last 200 years However without a theoretical basis for these long-term trends a full understanding was not possible Two exshytraordinary things occurred within the last 10 years that have reinshyvigorated this field 1) Professor Martin E P Seligman3 (University of Pennsylvania) and his colleagues established the academic field of Positive Psychology in 1998 and 2) the NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Portugal on Kondratieff Waves Warfare and World Security4 brought together in 2005 the worlds key experts to exshyplore the latest data and models for long waves in the economy technology and politics

In particular Seligman and the Positive Psychology Network have for the first time provided a firm scientific basis for the value of personal optimism in human life theyve shown statistically through numerous studies that optimists do better in school work and life and they even live longer Positive Psychology provides the

21 at Century Waves

basis for understanding the crucii nary decade-long intervals every which always exists-is [mally lU

nomic conditions producing a bril tions (such as the 1960s when ApoJ lient decades as Maslow Windo~

Kondratieff Symposium based analysis in 1991 by Professor Brii Dallas) and others showed that (I

more strongly than ever before the 60-year periods) can be seen in t1] ment and major wars This recen supports my earlier tentative concll omy were somehow modulating 1m major explorations In essence Cl

the missing link that explains wll of the human future in space did II plorations and settlement of the M[ major explorations (including butt limited only to decade-long Masl([ 56 years

Major economic booms can btl These are brief intervals when tm mankinds 200000-year-old psycH leased from bondage When the PJ constraints that typically hold sOl Maslow14 believed that people am plore and self-actualize The last II when the US spent $120 billion tt next will be between 2015 and 20~

In addition to major HE everu are typically inhabited by MEPs15i the last 200 years there is only one did not include all three entities was no bona fide MEp2

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In summary the two major the tific evidence for the psychosocia gests it is capable of providing a r zation in the near future and despi vision will not fully materialize u

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B Cordell

What are some of the near-term ecoshyilitical events we can expect that will =atest technology and space spectacular

Space PoUc that long-term trends in l1an history strongly suggested that the IV auld be the economic technological 160s We should expect unprecedented iineering and human exploration the ltuman operations in space This fore-views 1960s-style space exploration

iience technology and exploration acshyrfndeed it became clear that major epishyieg Lewis and Clark) huge state-ofshyg Panama Canal) and exceptionally Iar) cluster together roughly every 56 lmic booms I hypothesized that a Hushy-driven mostly by intangible psychoshyrdsts with a period of approximately 56 ~d over at least the last 200 years The Iwith surges in macro-engineering proshyiapparently because they are driven dishytonomic boom about every 56 years approach enables useful predictions for Uely by analogy with waves and events r without a theoretical basis for these rstanding was not possible Two exshyithin the last 10 years that have reinshyor Martin E P Seligman3 (University agues established the academic field of iand 2) the NATO Advanced Research mdratieff Waves Warfare and World n 2005 the worlds key experts to exshyriels for long waves in the economy

md the Positive Psychology Network d a firm scientific basis for the value man life theyve shown statistically [t optimists do better in school work nger Positive Psychology provides the

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21 Century Waves B Cordell

basis for understanding the crucial importance of these extraordishynary decade-long intervals every 56 years when human curiosityshywhich always exists-is fmally unleashed by unusually good ecoshynomic conditions producing a brief flurry of major human explorashytions (such as the 1960s when Apollo occurred) I refer to these ebulshylient decades as Maslow Windows On the other hand the NATO Kondratieff Symposium based on highly significant long-wave analysis in 1991 by Professor Brian BerryS (University of Texas at Dallas) and others showed that current data and analyses support more strongly than ever before the idea that long waves (with 50- to 60-year periods) can be seen in the economy technology developshyment and major wars This recent quantum leap in understanding supports my earlier tentative conclusion that long waves in the econshyomy were somehow modulating the space program as well as earlier major explorations In essence current long-wave theory provides the missing link that explains why the unparalleled positive vision of the human future in space did not result in continuous human exshyplorations and settlement of the Moon and Mars since 1969 Instead major explorations (including but not limited to space) have been limited only to decade-long Maslow Windows approximately every 56 years

Major economic booms can be thought of as Maslow Windows These are brief intervals when the 247 obsessive nature of hushymankinds 200000-year-old psycho-cultural drive to explore is reshyleased from bondage When the physiological fmancial and safety constraints that typically hold societies in bondage are loosened Maslow14 believed that people and societies feel freer to play exshyplore and self-actualize The last Maslow Window was in the 1960s when the US spent $120 billion to send 12 men to the Moon The next will be between 205 and 2025

In addition to major HE events like Apollo Maslow Windows are typically inhabited by MEPs IS as well as tragic large wars l

64 In the last 200 years there is only one instance when a Maslow Window did not include all three entities and that was in 1801 when there was no bona fide MEp2

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In summary the two major themes of this article are new scienshytific evidence for the psychosocial power of the space vision sugshygests it is capable of providing a revitalizing force for human civilishyzation in the near future and despite its compelling nature the space vision will not fully materialize until around 2025 when long-term

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24

21amp Century Waves 8 Cordell

trends in economics teclmology and society are favorable again The newly appreciated global power of the space vision plus

the discovery of its modulation by well-documented long waves make the timing of this next chapter in human expansion seem alshymost inevitable

THE SPACE VISION

Today NASAs space program has regained everyones attenshytion but this is often because of concerns for the safety of shuttle astronauts and not as a result of the extraordinary prospect of human expansion into the cosmos as envisioned by President Kennedy more than 40 years ago However humans should have another opportushynity to colonize space within 20 years One key reason is that when we combine ancient human obsessions about exploring far away places with alluring new high-tech capabilities we create a powerful cocktail known as the space vision

For example by 1997 entrepreneurs plan to offer the public subshyorbital flights for only about four times what a luxury suite cost on the Titanic And Earth-orbiting zero-gravity hotels cant be far beshyhind A little further downstream imagine visiting Neil Armstrongs still-pristine footprints made in 1969 at the Apollo Tranquility Mushyseum celebrating humanitys fIrst landing on another world while on your honeymoon on the Moon

For people who are serious about colonizing space as opposed to just visiting it imagine the settlements and later the major cities that will grow on Mars to support a new way of human life as we search for alien Martian life6

NEW SCIENCE AND VISION

Human society is a complex system subject to chaos theory where accurate information is usually scarce the future is hard to predict and unexpected catastrophes occur Physicists have e~tabshylished that large interactive systems eventually organize themselves into a critical state (ie self-organized criticality) in which a minor event starts a catastrophe Examples include falling snowflakes pilshying up on a mountainside until a little jiggle triggers an avalanche or economic stresses building up until a butterfly effect produces a Great Depression Because it is not possible to forecast solely by

Futures Research Quarterly amp Fall 2006

21 at Century Waves

analysis (eg with mathematical models plex system since the whole is greater tl

positive view of the future-such as the s avoid negative trends and events

The hints of a scientifIc revolution h long time For example one successful b ented skier and tennis player was instant riplegic by an auto accident Instead of gii successful Internet-based company that with speakers bureaus His attitude wa angry it wouldnt change things So I chtl

piness as a choice we can make everydlI was puzzled His doctor wrote that he hatl

piness and recommended that he be iSle and other patients so he could get ovel] gravity of his situation The quadriplegic spectacular impact on his personal and II reminiscent of a famous mindlbody effec placebo In this case a persons beli(1 medical treatment may have a major bie of the pharmaceutical potential of the drn necticut researcher says The critical whats going to happen to us You dontmiddot profound transformation He is convine Prozac and similar drugs is almost entireU ie the expectation of the patient

Evidence suggests that negative visit as effectively as positive vision (OptimiSli is linked with heart disease One Califii Treating depression even in cases withltc be important in both the prevention and disease

For the fIrst time scientists have pro tistical basis plus the key insights that f tween our vision of the future and our pI gevity and expansion Many revealing Il

Seligman3 and the Positive Psychology 11 (ie people with a positive vision of th school and college and are more success are also usually healthier and typically Iimiddot


6 Cordell

favorable again space vision plus lented long waves expansion seem al-

d everyones attenshyhe safety of shuttle r prospect of human dent Kennedy more ve another opportushyeason is that when exploring far away re create a powerful

)ffer the public subshyuxury suite cost on els cant be far beshyg Neil Armstrongs 110 Tranquility Mushyher world while on

~ space as opposed lter the major cities f human life as we

ct to chaos theory le future is hard to rsicists have e~tabshyrganize themselves ) in which a minor ing snowflakes pilshyrs an avalanche or effect produces a forecast solely by

h Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006

21 at Century Waves 6 Cordell

analysis (eg with mathematical models and computers) in a comshyplex system since the whole is greater than the sum of its parts a positive view of the futur~such as the space vision--is essential to avoid negative trends and events

The hints of a scientific revolution have swirled around us for a long time For example one successful businessman who was a talshyented skier and tennis player was instantly transformed into a quadshyriplegic by an auto accident Instead of giving up he founded a nowshysuccessful Internet-based company that links professional speakers with speakers bureaus His attitude was simple If I chose to be angry it wouldnt change things So I chose to be happy I saw hapshypiness as a choice we can make everyday Even the hospital staff was puzzled His doctor wrote that he had exhibited excessive hapshypiness and recommended that he be isolated from family friends and other patients so he could get over his denial and accept the gravity of his situation The quadriplegics intense optimism and its spectacular impact on his personal and professional performance is reminiscent of a famous mindlbody effect known for decades as the placebo In this case a persons beliefs and expectations about medical treatment may have a major biochemical effect regardless of the pharmaceutical potential of the drug One University of Conshynecticut researcher says The critical factor is our belief about whats going to happen to us You dont have to rely on drugs to see profound transformation He is convinced that the effectiveness of Prozac and similar drugs is almost entirely due to the placebo effect ie the expectation of the patient

Evidence suggests that negative vision (eg depression) works as effectively as positive vision (optimism) For example depression is linked with heart disease One California health official stated Treating depression even in cases without severe impairment may be important in both the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease

For the first time scientists have provided the empirical and stashytistical basis plus the key insights that firmly establish the link beshytween our vision of the future and our prospects for prosperity lonshygevity and expansion Many revealing studies by Professor Martin Seligman3 and the Positive Psychology Network show that optimists (ie people with a positive vision of the future) perform better in school and college and are more successful at work and home They are also usually healthier and typically live longer Their work con-

Futures Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006 25

210 Century Waves 8 Cordell

firms that individuals will naturally benefit from a societal vision that is highly positive and easily communicated and one that adshydresses aspirations and values of fundamental human interest

Because personal optimism is now scientifically linked with health performance and success national visions significantly guide the future by influencing individual attitudes and beliefs In the abshysence of a positive societal vision many people will not be routinely reminded of their moral and ethical foundations nor will they be encouraged to act intuitively in socially positive and supportive ways Most importantly many people may not become fully inteshygrated with their highest goals in life

Adding urgency to this story is commentary by one of the 20 th

centurys greatest sociobiologists Rene Dubos The most distressshying thing about the modem world is not the gravity of its probshylems it is the dampening of the human spirit Our very survival as a species depends on hope Von Brauns concern was thatshyanalogous to the 15 th century Chinese who inexplicably pulled back from their new frontier (eg North America)---the dampening of our spirit and the lowering of our hope might be the troubling signs of a sputtering civilization that has hesitated too long at the portals of its new frontier ie the one that we opened in 1969 when men first stepped onto the Moon 10

In addition Seligman-father of the Positive Psychology Moveshyment-states we are in an epidemic of depression one that through suicide takes as many lives as the AIDS epidemic and is more wideshyspread A popular notion among some political commentators is that one US institution after another is losing its legitimacy among the people Some view whats going on today as a kind of social disintegration that will lead to a huge social upheaval in the US and abroad

This is not good news for individuals trying to cultivate personal optimism or a vulnerable generation of young people whose vision of the future is dominated by drugs MTV and global terrorism

WHY NOT NOW

In 1989 at a meeting of scientists administrators and corporate leaders in Aspen Colorado NASA chose to ask the big questions What about sending humans to Mars What is it about the space vishysion

21 01 Century Waves

It was clear in that Aspen n highly positive adventure-san Indeed the space visions Po) human values (especially teanu mega-technology) its versatill other visions of the future (eg] agy) and its impressive paralll as identified by Polak8 suggeSl civilizations most culturally It liberating vision were ever t(l would trigger a reinvigoratioll would ultimately penetrate to laquo

So if Space is really this happening now And why dt 1970s when the last three Ap even after the monumental Sat

One problem is lack of COl

Space opportunities that are fl values and needs will be perce I published a detailed concepti which the US Japan the E would share power equally AI ous opportunities to contribute

Space colonization requirrl

people and resources and rna usually precluded except at prosperity Thats the fundarn base and manned Mars plans I

went unfulfilled in 1969 and 11 Over the last 200 years j

about 56 years and are part of nomenon first recognized by the 1920s His K-Waves puIs on pricing and other economii cluding the 56-year energy us 1989 the total energy consum with an amplitude of about mented back almost 200 yea world seems to be pulsating to

In effect each of us-wh

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middotmiddotmiddotmiddot 8 Cordell

lly benefit from a societal vision communicated and one that adshymdamental human interest s now scientifically linked with lational visions significantly guide al attitudes and beliefs In the abshymany people will not be routinely ~al foundations nor will they be socially positive and supportive ople may not become fully inteshyfe ls commentary by one of the 20th

Rene Dubos The most distressshyd is not the gravity of its probshymuan spirit Our very survival as on Brauns concern was thatshyese who inexplicably pulled back h America)-the dampening of IT hope might be the troubling hat has hesitated too long at the one that we opened in 1969 when

of the Positive Psychology Moveshytic of depression one that through lIDS epidemic and is more wideshy some political commentators is ler is losing its legitimacy among ling on today as a kind of social huge social upheaval in the US

riduals trying to cultivate personal m of young people whose vision MTV and global terrorism

IstS administrators and corporate ~ chose to ask the big questions rs What is it about the space vishy

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21 st Century Waves 8 Cordel

It was clear in that Aspen meetingII that space is a highly visible highly positive adventure-saturated symbol of human exploration Indeed the space visions powerful connections with fundamenta human values (especially teamwork exploration and search for truth mega-technology) its versatility in terms of potentially includin other visions of the future (eg globalization nano- and biotechnolmiddot ogy) and its impressive parallels with historically successful visioru as identified by PolakS suggest strongly that the space vision may bl civilizations most culturally powerful vision of the future If such liberating vision were ever to be embraced by our civilization i would trigger a reinvigoration of modem institutions and life tha would ultimately penetrate to our core

So if Space is really this stimulating why isnt its colonizatiOI happening now And why did it die so ingloriously in the earl~

1970s when the last three Apollo missions were abruptly canceled even after the monumental Saturn V launch vehicles had been built

One problem is lack of commitment and questionable marketing Space opportunities that are framed in terms of fundamental hurnal values and needs will be perceived as positive For example in 199 I published a detailed concept for an international space agency12 il which the US Japan the European Space Agency and Russia would share power equally All other countries would have continu ous opportunities to contribute and to share governance

Space colonization requires a large initial investment of money people and resources and major exploratory thrusts (like space) ar usually precluded except at times of societal peace and unUSU2 prosperity Thats the fundamental reason that the post-Apollo luna base and manned Mars plans of NASA Administrator Thomas Pain went unfulfilled in 1969 and the reason they dont exist even today

Over the last 200 years Maslow Windows are separated b about 56 years and are part of whats known as the long-wave phI nomenon first recognized by the Russian economist Kondratieft i the 1920s His K-Waves pulsate every 50 to 60 years and are base on pricing and other economic data Other long waves also exist if cluding the 56-year energy use wave17 discussed here Discovered i 1989 the total energy consumption cycle is approximately sinusoid with an amplitude of about 20 and a 56-year period it is docl mented back almost 200 years According to Modis17 the who world seems to be pulsating to this rhythm

In effect each of us-whether we know it or not-spends eac

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28


moment of our lives surfmg the long waves until we reach a Maslow Window and have our own 1960s-style experience Many of us get to surf through two Windows but very few ever see three

EXPLORATIONIMEP WAVES-THE LAST 200 YEARS

Table 1 summarizes the major events2-Human Exploration Macro-Engineering Projects and major wars-that cluster together along with economic booms approximately at the peaks of the 56shyyear energy cycle over at least the last 200 years Energy cycle peaks are in 1801 1857 1913 1969 and (in the future) 2025 Secshyondary events are shown indented after their primary counterparts

Major HE events are recognized by 1) the exploratlon of sigshynificantly new geographical sites 2) their ability to capture the attenshytion of a large audience usually of an international or global scale for a variety of reasons including competition nationalism andor danger and 3) expeditions that are often aided andor enabled by state-of-the-art technology

Jeffersons purchase of the Louisiana Territory in 1803 from Napoleon was one of the pivotal events in world history because it triggered an expansive era (until 1870) when the United States was the fastest growing nation in the world in both geographical area and population Lewis and Clark opened the floodgates to colonists and resulted in the USA becoming a bi-coastal entity The Lewis and Clark expedition is a superb example of an epochal pulse of human exploration coinciding with a peak in the energy cycle (Maslow Window 1)

The fact that Henry Stanleys phrase-Dr Livingstone I preshysume18-is famous even 150+ years after the event clearly sugshygests the intensity of interest in this major HE which coincided with the 1857 energy peakmiddot(Maslow Window 2) David Livingstone was a missionary doctor scientist and anti-slavery activist He spent 30 years in Africa exploring almost a third of the continent from its southern tip to the equator He returned to Britain in 1856 and reshyceived a gold medal from the London Royal Geographical Society for being the first to cross the entire African continent from west to east Although he was from Scotland concern about Livingstone was so high in the US and around the world that a New York newspaper sent Stanley to locate him 18 However despite his honors and world fame in the late 1860s Livingstone had difficulty raising funds to

Futures Research Quarterly Fall 2006

21 Century Waves

continue his African expeditions Living~ that of his spiritual brothers in exploratic tially triumphant Apollo astronauts-will were canceled to save money shortly aften 1969

TABLE 1 - MASLOW WIND

ENERGY PEAKS 1801 1857 (D = Initial Event date - Ener

Major Human Explor

Lewis and ClarkiAmerican NW (1804-1806) LivingstoneAfrica (1852-1856 1858-1864)

KingAmerican West (1863-1866) PearylNorth Pole (1909)

AmundsenSouth Pole (1911) Apol1olMoon (1960-1972)

Gargarinll to Orbit (1961)

Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)

Great Eastern Ship (1854-1858) Trans-Atlantic Cable (1866)

Panama Canal (1904-1914) The Titanic (1907-1912)

Apol1o (1960-1972) Gargarin1 5t to Orbit (1961)

Major Wars

Napoleonic WarslEurope (1803-1815) War of I812INorth America (1812-1815)

Civil WariUS (1861-1865) WWI (1914-1918) [WWlI (1939-1945) Trough] Vietnam (1965-1973)

The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985


middotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot BCordell

Ig waves until we reach a Is-style experience Many of very few ever see three

LAST 200 YEARS

ents2-Human Exploration wars-that cluster together Itely at the peaks of the 56shyst 200 years Energy cycle Id (in the future) 2025 Secshy

21 Century Waves ts oraell

continue his African expeditions Livingstones fate was similar to that of his spiritual brothers in exploration a century later-the inishytially triumphant Apollo astronauts-whose last three Moon trips were canceled to save money shortly after their energy cycle peak in 1969

TABLE I-MASLOWWlNDOWEVENTS

ENERGY PEAKS 1801185719131969 (2025) (D = Initial Event date - Energy Peak date)

heir primary counterparts 1) the exploration of sigshylr ability to capture the attenshylntemational or global scale petition nationalism andor en aided andor enabled by

ana Territory in 1803 from ~ in world history because it when the United States was

1 in both geographical area d the floodgates to colonists ~oastal entity The Lewis and f an epochal pulse of human the energy cycle (Maslow

Ise-Dr Livingstone I preshyafter the event clearly sugshyor HE which coincided with 2) David Livingstone was

slavery activist He spent 30 d of the continent from its I to Britain in 1856 and reshyRoyal Geographical Society lCan continent from west to lcern about Livingstone was that a New York newspaper espite his honors and world I difficulty raising funds to

IS Research Quarterly Fall 2006

Major Human Exploration

Lewis and ClarkAmerican NW (1804-1806) LivingstoneAfrica (1852-1856 1858-1864)


AmundseniSouth Pole (1911) ApoIlolMoon (1960-1972)

Gargarinl Isl to Orbit (1961)

D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr

Macro-Engineering Project

None (I80l) Suez Canal (1859-1869)



Apollo (1960-1972) Gargarinl Isl to Orbit (1961 )

Major Wars

Napoleonic WarslEurope (1803-1815) War of I 8121N0rth America (1812-1815)

Civii WarlUS (1861-1865) WWI (1914-1918) [WWII (1939-1945) Trough] Vietnam (1965-1973)

The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30


Although significant breakthroughs in science and technology can occur at any time MEPs are recognized by the criteria of Eugene Ferguson15 1) they are at the state-of-the-art of technology for their time 2) they are extremely expensive and usually large and 3) alshythough sometimes practical in purpose they are often aimed at satisshyfying intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature and are highly inspiring Notice that this is a demanding definition that exshycludes many extraordinary projects like trans-continental railroads or large highway systems because while expensive and significant they do not usually stretch technology

The MEPs of Table 1 are clearly the most extraordinary major engineering projects of their times over the last 200 years For exshyample the Suez Canal was the technological jewel of the 19th censhytuel l

Although a small canal at the Suez site was created and temshyporarily operated as early as the 13 th century the 19th century canal was the brainchild of French engineer and diplomat Ferdinand de Lesseps and the Egyptian government Initially costing nearly $1 billion (and about 100 miles long (without Panama-style locks) the Canal was originally owned by Egyptian and French interests until the British purchased Egypts shares in 1875

Although wars of all sizes occur almost continuously throughout history only the largest wars cluster around energy cycle peaks (Tashyble 1) The Napoleonic Wars the Civil War World Wars I and II and Vietnam were clearly the worst wars of their times

Maslow Window 2 was terminated by the Civil War (1861shy1865) which was extremely destructive for America The ratio of those in the military relative to the whole population was over 11 a value only (slightly) exceeded by WWII Civil War deaths exshyceeded 550000 and estimated dollar costs dwarfed all other 19 th censhytury conflicts

World War I also known as The Great War brought the ebulshylience of Maslow Window 3 to a destructive end and was clearly the worst war of its time Many historians believe that it led directly to WWII In trying to understand WWIIs relation to the long-w~ve pattern one thing is immediately apparent it doesnt fit WWII was a major war that occurred at an energy cycle trough Go1dsteinl6 exshyplains that major wars usually occur at energy cycle peaks because thats when countries are economically able to fight them Probably the best explanation for its timing is from historians who explain WWII as unfinished business from WWI

Futures Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006

21 Century Waves

Unfortunately the transition from ebr catastrophe can be abrupt For example ill livan24 comment on the social mindset jus tor from Mars it must have appeared that was on the brink of Utopia

Economic collapse was experienced ing to historian Eric Hobsbawm25

In the pansion and liberalism seemed irresistible they were no longer Indeed the descentt was precipitous and deep According to Victorian equivalent of the Wall Street laquo( unprecedented disturbance and depressim industry Although Hobsbawm (writing ence to long waves it is eye-catching that

sion of 1873 and the Great Depression of their respective 56-year energy cycle peak

21ST CENTURY FORECASTS

Does the documented existence of 1 last 200 years empower us to predict evel] suming that long waves will continue inl

swer is yes and no It is important to kelt have free will and are capable of making sistent with natural laws and their own bJ However Maslow Windows mark the thIn certain key things almost always occurshyploring new regions large engineering pC(( and so they can be viewed as a frameworll not inform us of exactly what will occur

There is every reason to believe that and the allied 56-year energy cycle) will century The most obvious reason is the fl pulsated for at least the last 200 years b world system theorists claim to be able to back to Sung China about one millenniun

Joseph Schumpeter (Harvard econ( shown as have many subsequent econor triggered by the bunching of basic iunO logical revolutions which ripple througl


middotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot middotmiddot BCordell

IS in science and technology ized by the criteria of Eugene lle-art of technology for their and usually large and 3) alshythey are often aimed at satisshypsychological nature and are lemanding defInition that exshytrans-continental railroads or e expensive and significant

he most extraordinary major r the last 200 years For exshylogical jewel of the 19th censhylez site was created and temshyentury the 19th century canal and diplomat Ferdinand de t Initially costing nearly $1 lout Panama-style locks) the an and French interests until 1875 nost continuously throughout mnd energy cycle peaks (Tashyl War World Wars I and II S of their times ed by the Civil War (1861shye for America The ratio of )le population was over 11 WWII Civil War deaths exshysts dwarfed all other 19th censhy

reat War brought the ebulshyitructive end and was clearly ms believe that it led directly ITs relation to the long-w~ve ent it doesnt fIt WWII was cycle trough Goldstein16 ex-energy cycle peaks because able to fIght them Probably from historians who explain WI

res Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006


Unfortunately the transition from ebullient Maslow zeitgeist to catastrophe can be abrupt For example historians Harrison and Sulshylivan24 comment on the social mindset just prior to WWI To a visishytor from Mars it must have appeared that the Western world in 1914 was on the brink ofUtopia

Economic collapse was experienced after Window 2 Accordshying to historian Eric Hobsbawm25

In the early 1870s economic exshypansion and liberalism seemed irresistible By the end of the decade they were no longer Indeed the descent from Maslow Window 2 was precipitous and deep According to Hobsbawm 1873 the Victorian equivalent of the Wall Street Crash of 1929 began an unprecedented disturbance and depression of trade commerce and industry Although Hobsbawm (writing in 1975) makes no refershyence to long waves it is eye-catching that both the Victorian Depresshysion of 1873 and the Great Depression of 1929 started 16 years after their respective 56-year energy cycle peaks


Does the documented existence of Maslow Windows over the last 200 years empower us to predict events in the 21 51 century Asshysuming that long waves will continue into the 21 51 century the anshyswer is yes and no It is important to keep in mind that individuals have free will and are capable of making independent decisions conshysistent with natural laws and their own beliefs interests and goals However Maslow Windows mark the times during long waves when certain key things almost always occur--eg economic booms exshyploring new regions large engineering projects a descent into warshyand so they can be viewed as a framework for the future but they do not inform us of exactly what will occur

There is every reason to believe that long waves (ie K-Waves and the allied 56-year energy cycle) will continue well into the 21 51

century The most obvious reason is the fact that they have faithfully pulsated for at least the last 200 years Indeed some historians and world system theorists claim to be able to trace economic long waves back to Sung China about one millennium ago4

Joseph Schumpeter (Harvard economist of the 1930s) has shown as have many subsequent economists that each K-Wave is triggered by the bunching of basic innovations that launch technoshylogical revolutions which ripple through the global economy and


32

21 st Century Waves B Cordell

create new leading industrial or commercial sectors The new techshynologies that could propel us into the next wave are already visible and include supersonic airplanes maglev trains and the convergence of the nanolbioinfotechnologies New environment-friendly energy sources that could power the economic drive to Maslow 5 might initially include LEO satellites that collect solar energy and microshywave it to Earth for use as electricity26 In the absence of a global environmental catastrophe or something else that would disturb the development of new technologies and the economic forces which drive them we can expect the K-Wave and 56-year energy cycle to continue indefinitely

Several interesting trends allow specific inferences about events near 2025 during the first 21 51 century Maslow Window (Le Winshydow 5) The forecasts include

bull There will be at least one major human exploration event it will feature space activities on an unprecedented scale near 2025

bull There will be at least one macro-engineering project it will be integrated with the human exploration space activities (like Apollo) and will culminate near 2025

bull There will be a major war near 2025

WWII is unique in the last two centuries because it occurred durshying the energy cycle trough immediately preceding the 1969 peak (the Apollo Window) The lack of a global war in the 1990s energy trough suggests the circumstances of the upcoming Maslow Window (2015-2025) may have more in common with the Polar Expedition Window 3 (1904-1913) than the 1960s For example immediately following WWII and the Marshall Plan the Western world was more unified than it has been since the end of the Cold War and especially since the onset of the War on Terror

From the Lewis and Clark Window 1 in 180 I-when there was no Ferguson-style MEP-to the most recent Window featuring Apollo the growth in MEPs has been consistent and phenomenal The last three Windows have included multiple MEPs with one beshying dominant For example during the Polar Expedition Window the Panama Canal was dominant while the Titanic was secondary All MEPs were physically distinct from their corresponding HE events until the 1960s Apollo reversed this trend and thorougWy


21 st Century Waves

integrated both human exploration and man project up to its time This trend will tury

It is highly likely that human explor~

focus on space because of the fact that unexplored place left to go and because the space vision in general The arenas erations on the Moon and human bases 0)

preneurs will serve human desires to pel to eventually take vacations on the Moo) front expense and risks govermnents wii frontiers (eg Mars) during Window 5

The National Advisory Committee 01

created in 1915 partly as a reaction tu Europe to advise the US govermnent on tial uses of aeronautical technology In by the new National Aeronautics and Sll scope included human space exploration sponse to the Soviets launch of Sputnik tensions during the International Geoprn Window 5 will feature major internatiOl scale development and colonization of s NASA will be absorbed into a larger II

l2authors concept Interspace Energy birth date allow us to forecast that the II

ganization will take shape by 2014 c16 Maslow Window 5

During the last 200 years all Mash major wars near their energy cycle peal anticipate that our next major global 2025 Although currently unknown the pothesized war may negatively impact much like Vietnam distracted popular 1960s The War on Terror may contim similarities to the Cold War including This global security wildcard is the gre technology and space activities ofMas101

Shortly after WWII the United Stat Western Europe with an eye toward iJ stimulating economic growth and evenh


8 Cordell

I sectors The new techshywave are already visible ins and the convergence ronrnent-friendly energy ve to Maslow 5 might solar energy and microshythe absence of a global

e that would disturb the economic forces which 56-year energy cycle to

inferences about events low Window (ie Win-

nan exploration event it mprecedented scale near

gineering project it will loration space activities r 2025

because it occurred durshyreceding the 1969 peak war in the 1990s energy orning Maslow Window ith the Polar Expedition Jr example immediately Western world was more old War and especially

11 180I-when there was cent Window featuring sistent and phenomenal iple MEPs with one beshyar Expedition Window Titanic was secondary

heir corresponding HE lS trend and thoroughly

search Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006


integrated both human exploration and MEPs into the greatest hushyman proj ect up to its time This trend will continue into the 21 sl censhytury

It is highly likely that human exploration in the 21 st century will focus on space because of the fact that space is the only exciting unexplored place left to go and because of the impressive power of the space vision in general The arenas will include large-scale opshyerations on the Moon and human bases on Mars Private space entreshypreneurs will serve human desires to personally visit Earth orbit and 10 eventually take vacations on the Moon Because of the large upshyfront expense and risks governments will still dominate deep space frontiers (eg Mars) during Window 5

The National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics (NACA) was created in 1915 partly as a reaction to the outbreak of WWI in Europe to advise the US government on the development and potenshytial uses of aeronautical technology In 1958 NACA was absorbed by the new National Aeronautics and Space Administration whose scope included human space exploration NASA was formed in reshysponse to the Soviets launch of Sputnik in the context of Cold War tensions during the International Geophysical Year Since Maslow Window 5 will feature major international efforts toward the largeshyscale development and colonization of space it is forecast here that NASA will be absorbed into a larger global organization like the authors concept Interspace12

Energy cycle timing and NASAs birth date allow us to forecast that the new international space orshyganization will take shape by 2014 clearly signaling the onset of Maslow Window 5

During the last 200 years all Maslow Windows have featured major wars near their energy cycle peaks Some political scientists anticipate that our next major global conflict may occur around 2025 Although currently unknown the detailed timing of this hyshypothesized war may negatively impact Maslow space enterprises much like Vietnam distracted popular support for Apollo in the 1960s The War on Terror may continue into the 2020s and have similarities to the Cold War including hot asymmetric flare-ups This global security wildcard is the greatest threat to the projected technology and space activities of Maslow Window 5

Shortly after WWII the United States rebuilt the economies of Western Europe with an eye toward increasing political stability stimulating economic growth and eventually producing good trading


-___ _--~

33

34

21 0 Century Waves 21 at Century Waves B Cordell

partners History has shown that the Marshall Plan was a good inshyvestment for everyone As we move into the 21 sl century it is likely that we will develop a Global Plan for Space (GPS)--basically an international Marshall Plan-as an integral part of the successor to NASA As an outgrowth of Barnett-style globalization27

wealthy countries will provide security infrastructure and [mandaI investshyments for a variety of GPS programs from Earth orbit to the Moon and beyond These initial investments will be returned many times over as less developed countries expand and prosper--economically and psychologically-from their involvement with space technoloshygies and resources and settlements on other worlds

The energy cycle indicates that our next Maslow Window after 2025 will culminate around 2081 Unless we achieve independent bases on the Moon or Mars by 2025 humans will be largely conshyfined to Earth (much like now) until our next opportunity for expanshysion in 2081

FORECASTING THE SIZES OF FUTURE MEPs

If we take seriously the model of this article that economic long waves are modulating human explorations and MEPs its possible to forecast the sizes of future space-related MEPs assuming they will occur near an energy cycle peak (the pattern for the last 200 years) and based on real growth in the economy extrapolated from the last 200 years (Dollar conversions and historical GDP data are from Note 28)

Table 2 lists the fraction of GDP expended on the last three MEPs Suez was 0003 Panama was 0001 and Apollo was 0002 Fraction of GDP is basically a level of societal commitment to a proshyject its a spending priority requiring political support Multiplying this number by the GDP in 2025 gives an estimate of the potential dollar cost ofthe next Maslow Windows spaceMEP projects

Table 2 shows real data for three MEPs Suez Panama and Apollo and three columns of projected data for 2025 all datais in US 2005 dollars and in millions of dollars (unless otherwise stated) The US GDP for 2025 is estimated using three models 1) extrapolatshying historical GDPs for the four energy cycle peaks 2) using the mean ratio of GDPs for energy peak years versus GDPs for years 20 years prior to their respective peak and 3) simply using the GDP for 2005 (the most conservative and most unrealistic method)


TABLE2-MEP

-MEl

YshyMIISS Cod Y AooaoI Cod

IboODP(USJ) IlaI cor (1t05 tIS S)--AooaoI_ t200S lIS S)

So- AooaoIIld Cod ZQllS _lldo200S ~ Ild CodZOOS

cor

T CootJ Tolol Coot (2OOS) $M T (2lSB

rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115

44 10 OBR1shy10 GBIl 1169

n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170

1110 un oQQlI6shy1107 un

bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US

Figure 1 is a plot of GDPs for the 1I ergy peak years back to 1801 all dolh Since the logarithmic plot is linear its ~ the GDP for 2025 (ie 371 T) The m ratio--eg GDP (l857)GDP(l837-i this ratio by the GDP for 2005 will eraquo (ie 268 T) The GDP for 2025 (l25i parison Its clear that the 2025 GDP 2005 or long waves will have been susit and economic benefits of the econOIlli Maslow Window

FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve


middotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot middot middotmiddot B Cordell 21M Century Waves B Cordell

-e Marshall Plan was a good inshybullinto the 21 51 century it is likely for Space (GPS--basically an

integral part of the successor to tt-style globalization27

wealthy astructure and fmancial investshyIS from Earth orbit to the Moon Its will be returned many times land and prosper--economically volvement with space technoloshyill other worlds our next Maslow Window after Unless we achieve independent ~5 humans will be largely conshyour next opportunity for expan-

FUTUREMEPs

f this article that economic long ltions and MEPs its possible to lated MEPs assuming they will e pattern for the last 200 years) nomyextrapolated from the last historical GDP data are from

DP expended on the last three s 0001 and Apollo was 0002 )f societal commitment to a proshyg political support Multiplying yes an estimate of the potential )WS spaceMEP projects ree MEPs Suez Panama and ted data for 2025 all dat~ is in ollars (unless otherwise stated) ling three models 1) extrapolatshyergy cycle peaks 2) using the years versus GDPs for years 20 nd 3) simply using the GDP for unrealistic method)

Jtures Research Quarterly Fall 2006

TABLE 2 - MEP DATA

CoaaOt Y Mtm Cool Y _Coot

IbDODP(lJS1) GDr(2005VSI)_shy

II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)

Sa- _1toI Coot 200S r_ Ammo Rei Coot 200S lop- AmmoItoI Cool200S_CD

110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141

TeshyT Coot (2005) $M Told e (2415) sa _ T Coot 200S

ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO

Figure 1 is a plot of GDPs for the US economy for the four enshyergy peak years back to 1801 all dollar values are in 2005 US $ Since the logarithmic plot is linear its straightforward to extrapolate the GDP for 2025 (ie 371 T) The mean 20-year difference GDP ratio--eg GDP (1857)GDP(l837-is 215 (+1- 029) multiplying this ratio by the GDP for 2005 will extrapolate the GDP for 2025 (ie 268 T) The GDP for 2025 (125 T) is used simply for comshyparison Its clear that the 2025 GDP will be much higher than for 2005 or long waves will have been suspended and the psychological and economic benefits of the economic boom will not produce a Maslow Window

FIGURE 1 - US GDP vs YEAR

50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36

ll- lenturyWaves B Cordell

Assuming a Panama-like GDP fraction of 000 I gives us potenshytial MEP costs of 381 276 and 128 billion (2005 $) and costs relashytive to Apollo of 35 25 and 12 for 2025 GDP models based on peak extrapolations 20-year ratios and the 2005 GDP respectively A Panama-like GDP fraction of only 0001 is a pretty half-hearted societal commitment by Apollo standards If we assume an Apollo fraction of 0002 all the numbers above double and it becomes clear that the US will have the capability-due to ongoing real growth in its economy especially during the next Maslow Window-to create space MEPs that will dwarf Apollo

The Maslow 4 analog of this year (2006) is 1950 and we are now entering the economic technological and societal analog of the 1950s complete with a 1950s-style zeitgeist If you are around 60 years old or older you should have personal recollections of this time Some things have changed-this is an analog not a duplishycate-such as the Cold War being replaced by the War on Terror and there was no WWII analog five years ago and the level of techshynology is greatly advanced versus the 1950s However the last 200 years of economic history indicate that the GDP between now and the next energy cycle peak in 2025 will experience spectacular real growth of a factor of at least 22 This economic boom will be unlike any since the 1960s and will dramatically change attitudes activities and goals momentarily unleashing societys powerful Maslow exshyploration drives

A CHRONOLOGY FOR MASLOW WINnOW 5

Figure 2 shows a possible chronology for Maslow Window 5 from 2006 to about 2030 assuming that the long-wave model of this article has predictability for the early 21 sl century I have shown a nominal chronology with 1 1 correspondence between Maslow 4 and 5 but the dates can be expected to vary by amounts comparable to the D values in Table 1

Notice that in the early 1950s people got excited about technolshyogy and space by reading about them in Colliers Fifty-six years later they will be thrilled by personally experiencing suborbital flights by private companies The price will rapidly drop so that tens of thousands will have personally entered space by 2012 Dator29 has suggested that since the Millennials-the Strauss and Howe30 genshyeration born since 1982-are Civics they will be especially sup-


21 at Century Waves

portive of Maslow 5 activities becau progress economic prosperity and pub Civics have been responsible for the ] Apollo Moon landings two Civics p (Apollo) and Ronald Reagan (Space Sta

In 1957 the US was shocked into nik by the Soviets A similar shock c when China Japan Europe or some COl

announce their intentions to send hum create a space-based civilization (In fi space program has already publicly iden for Chinas first Moonwalk) This plus ences in space will trigger formation oj terspace analog) and the election of the heshe wasnt already elected in 2012 was elected in 1960 and we can expec ismatic figure like this who will lead highly international technology and spa NASA already has official plans tOI and the first human landing on Mars wi ference this time will be the acknowl( achievement of self-sufficiency in all 1 will be understood that economic and

pansion into space will rapidly erode a cycle peak in 2025 and the next oppo adventures will be 2071 to 2081 Also looms in the 2020s If the war is early be precluded If it is late all the hum actually occur The timing of a major w ture of all Maslow Windows of the 1 unpredictable

WHATS NEXT

The greatest modern proponent of 11 was Princeton physicist Gerard ONeil tier in 1977 four years later he wrote a

31 Hopeful View of the Human Future course that 2081 is the date of the last century It is challenging to imagine wh


middotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot 8 Cordell

tion of 000 1 gives us potenshyIlion (2005 $) and costs relashy 2025 GDP models based on 1the 2005 GDP respectively 0001 is a pretty half-hearted rrds If we assume an Apollo e double and it becomes clear lue to ongoing real growth in Maslow Window-to create

r (2006) is 1950 and we are cal and societal analog of the ~itgeist If you are around 60 personal recollections of this Lis is an analog not a duplishyllaced by the War on Terror ars ago and the level of techshy1950s However the last 200 It the GDP between now and 11 experience spectacular real conornic boom will be unlike ly change attitudes activities cietys powerful Maslow ex-

WINDOW 5

ogy for Maslow Window 5 t the long-wave model of this 21

51 century I have shown a

mdence between Maslow 4 vary by amounts comparable

lIe got excited about techno1shyin Colliers Fifty-six years

ally experiencing suborbital will rapidly drop so that tens d space by 2012 Dator9 has he Strauss and Howe30 genshythey will be especially supshy

es Research Quarterly Fall 2006

21 01 Century Waves 8 Cordell

portive of Maslow 5 activities because Civics love technological progress economic prosperity and public optimism For example Civics have been responsible for the Louisiana Purchase and the Apollo Moon landings two Civics presidents are John KeIUledy (Apollo) and Ronald Reagan (Space Station)

In 1957 the US was shocked into action by the launch of Sputshynik by the Soviets A similar shock can be expected around 2013 when China Japan Europe or some combination of these officially aIUlounce their intentions to send humans to the Moon and Mars and create a space-based civilization (In fact a top official in Chinas space program has already publicly identified 2024 as the target year for Chinas fIrst Moonwalk) This plus Americans personal experishyences in space will trigger formation of the new NASA (ie an Inshyterspace analog) and the election of the Space President in 2016 if heshe wasnt already elected in 2012 President John F KeIUledy was elected in 1960 and we can expect another extraordinary charshyismatic figure like this who will lead us into the unprecedented highly international technology and space adventures of Maslow 5 NASA already has official plans to return to the Moon by 2020 and the fIrst human landing on Mars will be near 2025 The big difshyference this time will be the acknowledged requirement for rapid achievement of self-suffIciency in all lunar and Mars settlements It will be understood that economic and social support for human exshypansion into space will rapidly erode away shortly after the energy cycle peak in 2025 and the next opportunity for expansive human adventures will be 2071 to 2081 Also the specter of a major war looms in the 2020s If the war is early the Mars landing itself may be precluded If it is late all the human aspirations in Figure 2 may actually occur The timing of a major war in the 2020s-a tragic feashyture of all Maslow Windows of the last 200 years-is completely unpredictable

WHATS NEXT

The greatest modem proponent of large-scale space colonization was Princeton physicist Gerard ONeil who wrote The High Fronshytier in 1977 four years later he wrote another book entitled 2081-A Hopeful View of the Human Future 3l The ironic coincidence is of course that 2081 is the date of the last Mas10w Window of the 21 51

century It is challenging to imagine what life might be like then


21St century Waves t (ordell

imposed by a system (eg the Earth) with FIGURE 2 - MASLOW WINDOWS 4 AND 5 eventually result in severe SOCial controls aJ(Maslow 4 + 56 Yr = Maslow 5) humans are diffused into the Galaxy anrnlu

Maslow 4 (HistOry) Maslow 5 (Forecasts) 1987 Stock Market Crash

1973 Oil Crisis

1972 Vietnam War ends Last Apollo Moon flight

1971

1969 Energy Cycle peak lst Apollo Moon landing

1968 Apollo 8-1 humans to Moon orbit last X-IS Flight

1966

1965 Vietnam War Begins Gemini Program

1963 1962 John Glenn I American to

orbit Earth 1961 Gagarin I st to orbit

Shepard 1st American in space President Kennedy Moon by end of decade speech

1960 Apollo Program Begins 1st X-IS Flight President Kennedy elected

1959 Maslow 4 Decade Begins 1958 NASA Fonned

Ist US satellite in orbit 1957 Sputnik launched

1956 1955 North American selected to develop

X-IS 1954 More Colliers space issues 1952 Colliers space issues

1951

195056 years ago today 1948

2043 2041 Stock Market Crash 2029 War Window closes

Economic slowdown begins Humans continuously on Mars

2028

2027 Self-sufficient Mars bases estabshylished

2025 Energy Cycle Peakshylst Human landing on Mars

2024

2022 Humans to Mars moons Robotic probes mine water on Mars for Propellants

2021 War Window opens Water and oxygen mined on Moon

2020 Ist Lunar Bases 2018 NASA plans return to Moon

2017 Space President announces MoonMars program goals

2016 Space President elected

2015 Maslow 5 Decade Begins 2014 Interspace formed

2013 China Japan Europe announce human space programs

2012 Space President Elected 20 II Earth orbital hotel vacations

routine and affordable 2010 Public hotels in Earth orbit 2008 Space Adventures plans public

flights to Moon 2007 Virgin Glalactic plans public subshy

orbital space flights 2006 Today 2004 SpaceShipOne captures X prize

or internal forces32 will always be a real pOl long-term security and prosperity for human guaranteed by our expansion into space

The next Maslow Window IS potentlall human expansion and prosperity as we tim endlessly trained for during the last 200OOC

Trek generation

NOTES 1 The Editors Man Will Conquer Space

221952pp22-23 2 Cordell Bruce Forecasting the Next MI

Space Policy February 1996 Vol 121 1

3 Seligman MEP Authentic Happiness 2002) See also Learned Optimism (Ne

1990) 4 Devezas Te Ed Kondratieff Waves

curity NATO Science Series (AmsterdaJ 5 Berry BJL Long-Wave Rhythm~ in

and political Behavior Johns Hopkins H 6 Cordell Bruce The First Martians Al

See also The Challenge of Mars Au Society May 1990 Vol 2 5 pp 8-14 Mission Overview 25

th AlAAlASlVIEI~

sian Conference 32 pp July 1989 Mon 7 Bak P How Nature Works (New

1996) 8 Polak F The Image of the Future Vol

den Netherlands 1961 See also Huber ture In Handbook of Futures Researc Greenwood Press Westport cr See a Up in Social Transition In Se~rch of (Finland University of Turku Fllliand

9 Menzies G 1421 - The Year China D

ONeil envisioned only three possible outcomes for human civishy York HarperCollins 2003) lization stagnation annihilation or expansion The limits to growth 10Von Braun W SA Bedini and PL

Greatest Adventure (New York Abran Futures Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006 38 Futures Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006

~------------- -----~ shy

middotmiddotbullmiddotbullmiddotmiddotmiddotbullmiddotmiddotmiddotbullmiddotbullbullbullmiddotmiddot middot middotmiddotbullmiddot ts lorOell

DOWS 4 AND 5 ~aslow5)

Waslow 5

ock Market Crash ar Window closes Olnic slowdown begins iIDS continuously on Mars

If-sufficient Mars bases estabshyshed lergy Cycle Peakshyuman landing on Mars

mans to Mars moons ic probes mine water on Mars JpelJants If Window opens and oxygen mined on Moon Lunar Bases SA plans retum to Moon

tace President announces Mars program goals

ace President elected

dow 5 Decade Begins rspace fonned

18 Japan Europe announce space programs ICe President Elected I orbital hotel vacations and affordable ic hotels in Earth orbit e Adventures plans public JMoon n Glalactic plans public subshypace flights -y SbipOne captures X prize

utcomes for human civishyon The limits to growth

esearch Quarterly Fall 2006

21 Century Waves ts oraen

imposed by a system (eg the Earth) with limited resources would eventually result in severe social controls and stagnation And until humans are diffused into the Galaxy annihilation by extraterrestrial or internal forces32 will always be a real possibility ONeil felt that long-term security and prosperity for human civilization can only be guaranteed by our expansion into space

The next Maslow Window is potentially the portal to ultimate human expansion and prosperity as we fmally become what weve endlessly trained for during the last 200000 years the first real Star Trek generation

NOTES

1 The Editors Man Will Conquer Space Soon Colliers March 22 1952pp 22-23

2 Cordell Bruce Forecasting the Next Major Thrust into Space Space Policy February 1996 Vol 121 pp 45-57

3 Seligman MEP Authentic Happiness (New York Free Press 2002) See also Learned Optimism (New York Pocket Books 1990)

4 Devezas Te Ed Kondratieff Waves Warfare and World Seshycurity NATO Science Series (Amsterdam ISO Press 2006)

5 Berry BJL Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior Johns Hopkins Baltimore 1991

6 Cordell Bruce The First Martians Astronomy March 1983 See also The Challenge of Mars Ad Astra National Space Society May 1990 Vol 2 5 pp 8-14 See also Manned Mars Mission Overview 25 th AIAAlASMESAEASEE Joint Propulshysion Conference 32 pp July 1989 Monterey CA

7 Bak P How Nature Works (New York Springer-Verlag 1996)

8 Polak F The Image of the Future Vol I and II Sythhoff Leyshyden Netherlands 1961 See also Huber BJ Images of the Fushyture In Handbook of Futures Research J Fowles Ed 1978 Greenwood Press Westport CT See also Rubin A Growing Up in Social Transition In Search of a Late-Modem Identity (Finland University of Turku Finland 2000)

9 Menzies G 1421 - The Year China Discovered America (New York HarperCollins 2003)

lOVon Braun W SA Bedini and FL Whipple Moon - Mans Greatest Adventure (New York Abrams 1973)


40

I lury vvaves 8 Cordell

11NASA Exploration Task Force An Interim Statement Noshyvember 1989 Aspen Colorado

12Cordell Bruce Interspace - Design for an International Space Agency Space Policy November 1992 Vol 84 pp 287-294

13Finney BR and EM Jones The Exploring Animal In Intershystellar Migration and Human Experience (Berkeley University of California Press 1985)

14Maslow AH Motivation and Personality (New York Harper 1970)

15Ferguson ES Historical Perspectives on Macro-Engineering Projects In Macro-Engineering and the Infrastructure of Toshymorrow F P Davidson Ed (Boulder Westview Press Boulshyder Colorado ) Also see Davidson FP Macro (New York William Morrow 1983)

16 Goldstein JS A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave In Business Cycles Theories Evidence and Analysis N Thygesen et al Ed Macmillan 1991 See also Long Cycles Prosperity and War in the Modern Age (Yale New Haven 1988)

17Stewart HB Recollecting the Future Dow Jones-Irwin Homewood Illinois 1989 See also Modis T Predictions (New York Simon amp Schuster 1992)

18 Stanley HM How I Found Livingstone Sampson London 1895 See also Dugard M Into Africa Broadway Books New York 2003 See also Snyder L Great Turning Points in Hisshytory Barnes amp Noble New York 1971

195tuster J Bold Endeavors Naval Institute Press Annapolis MD 1996See also Nisenson S and DeWitt W Historys Greatest 100 Events Grosset amp Dunlap New York 1954

20Chaikin A A Man on the Moon Penguin New York 1994 21Karabell Z Parting the Desert Vintage New York 2003 22McCullough D The Path Between the Seas Simon amp Schusshy

ter New York 1977 23 Hoffman EC All You Need is Love Harvard Cambridge MA

1998See also Schulman B The Seventies Da Capo Press Cambridge MA 2001

24 Harrison lB and RE Sullivan A Short History of Western Civilization Alfred A Knopf New York 1966

25Hobsbawm E The Age of Capital 1848-1875 Barnes amp Noshyble New York 1975See also The Age of Extremes 1914shy

Futures Research Quarterly Faff 2006

21 st Century Waves

1991 (Vintage New York Vintage 19) 26Hoffert M1 et aI Advanced Techllli

mate Stability Energy for a GreenhOl vember 12002 Vol 298 pp 981-9811 Return to the Moon Exploration E the Human Settlement of Space (i

27 Barnett TPM The Pentagons Nell nams 2004)

28 Williamson SH What is the Relati tory Services June 2006 URL httpI also Johnston LD and Williamson S Nominal GDP for the United States sources April 2006 URL httpehm fleer LH The Annual Real and NO Kingdom Economic History Service~

httpehnethmit ukgdp 29Dator J University of Hawaii Persoll

2006 30Strauss W and N Howe Generation~

See also McCurdy HE Inside NASA kins 1993)

310Neill GK 2081- A Hopeful View a York Simon amp Schuster 1981) S~ (NewYork William Morrow 1977)

32Rees M Our Final Hour (New York


middotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot B Cordell

ltn Interim Statement Noshy

~n for an International Space 1992 Vol 84 pp 287-294 Exploring Animal In Intershyrience (Berkeley University

sonality (New York Harper

tives on Macro-Engineering nd the Infrastructure of ToshyIlder Westview Press BoulshyIll FP Macro (New York

heory of the Long Wave In e and Analysis N Thygesen llso Long Cycles Prosperity New Haven 1988) Future Dow Jones-Irwin

I Modis T Predictions (New

ingstone Sampson London rica Broadway Books New Great Turning Points in Hisshy971 II Institute Press Annapolis and DeWitt W Historys nlap New York 1954 enguin New York 1994 ntage New York 2003 n the Seas Simon amp Schusshy

e Harvard Cambridge MA ~ Seventies Da Capo Press

A Short History of Western York1966

1 1848-1875 Bames amp NoshyThe Age of Extremes 1914shy

es Research Quarterlymiddot Fall 2006


1991 (Vintage New York Vintage 1991) 26Hoffert MI et aI Advanced Technology Paths to Global Clishy

mate Stability Energy for a Greenhouse Planet Science Noshyvember 1 2002 Vol 298 pp 981-987See also Schmitt HH Return to the Moon Exploration Enterprise and Energy in the Human Settlement of Space (New York Praxis 2006)

27 Barnett TPM The Pentagons New Map (New York Putshynams 2004)

28Williamson SH What is the Relative Value Economic Hisshytory Services June 2006 URL httpehnetlhmitlcompare See also Johnston LD and Williamson SH The Annual Real and Nominal GDP for the United States Economic History Reshysources April 2006 URL httpehnetlhmitlgdp See also Ofshyficer LR The Annual Real and Nominal GDP for the United Kingdom Economic History Services September 2005 URL httpehnetlhmitl ukgdp

29Dator J University of Hawaii Personal Communication June 2006

30Strauss W and N Howe Generations Quill New York 1991 See also McCurdy HE Inside NASA (Baltimore Johns Hopshykins 1993)

310Neill GK 2081- A Hopeful View of the Human Future New York Simon amp Schuster 1981) See also The High Frontier (NewYork William Morrow 1977)

32Rees M Our Final Hour (New York Basic Books 2003)


Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA

MEP Suez Panama Apollo Mars+ Mars+ Mars+

Country GSR USA USA USA USA USA

Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs

Nom GOP (US $) 6898 36500 984600 Peaks Ratios 2005

Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

LPOLICY ~ses both an evolving philosophy llry objective is to assist decisionshylltential consequences of present images of alternative futures It iins in sociology more recently in Jcial sciences It has independent lltional planning in strategic and icant contemporary roots in govshyecurity Successful practice of fushy~s both from established academic lciplinary fields as technology asshy

Futures Research Quarterly

nns research issues management Volume 22 Number 3 Fall 2006

lly is a refereed journal A prestishy~w Board has been established to ]es submitted for publication Fushy~ncourage and facilitate communishytitioners in all related fields and Ill and economic sectors It is also anding and education in the methshy[he concern of the editors is thus md planning tools we wish also to lllfes research in the larger context

articles Futures Research Quarshyne responsible reactions to articles short notes from Editorial Board

f pertinent classic papers and reshyports Because it is not possible alshyhin the confines of a single Futures y upon our readers to provide the responses to controversial or one-

Ilt this journal shall provide a forum Illved with the theory methodology Ih Iitor ny Mack

hed by lure Society Avenue Suite 450 IaryIand 20814 ISA

CONTENTS

The Future of Collecting and Auctions by James L Halperin 5

21 st Century Waves Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos

by Bruce Cordell 21

The Mechanization of Mind A Deconstruction of Two Contemporary Intelligence Theorists

by Marcus Anthony 43

SPECIAL FEATURE

Best Recent Books and Reports Selections from Future Survey for Leaders and Readers (Part I)

by Michael Marien 63

-------------- ---- -

I






21 at Century Waves








bull



B Cordell











bull



24




THE SPACE VISION







21 at Century Waves










6 Cordell




















WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

-------------- ---- -

I






21 at Century Waves








bull



B Cordell











bull



24




THE SPACE VISION







21 at Century Waves










6 Cordell




















WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

B Cordell











bull



24




THE SPACE VISION







21 at Century Waves










6 Cordell




















WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

24




THE SPACE VISION







21 at Century Waves










6 Cordell




















WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

6 Cordell




















WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2








WHY NOT NOW


21 01 Century Waves

















~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2







~ ~ L_










28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

28









21 Century Waves




Major Human Explor





Macro-Engineering P

None (1801) Suez Canal (1859-1869)




Major Wars



The Cold War 1953-1962 1979-1985




LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2



LAST 200 YEARS

















D =+3 yr D = -5 yr

D = -4 yr

D =-9 yr






Major Wars



The Cold War (1953-1962 1979-1985)

D= +2 yr

D =-9 yr

D=-9yr

D=+2yr

D =+4 yr D=+ yr

D = -4 yr


30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

30









21 Century Waves


























32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2
















32










21 st Century Waves












8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

8 Cordell


















-___ _--~

33

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

34










TABLE2-MEP

-MEl




cor


rIldToloICod2tlOS

A T JOOS

PlIr 1115


n36 10 UI

6191 IIII~

170


bull

USA 191

m 10 5750-S~IIIO

m U9 100 0-3

1bull

sm I 1110

US


FIGURE 1 - US GDE

l50000

A 40000

sect 30000

20000=m oS ~OOOO

00000 ~750 ~800 1850 ~9(

Ve






FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2





FUTUREMEPs




TABLE 2 - MEP DATA



II1S

_ OBR

1 shy

110 GBR 1169

tt36 10 SOI

~

ml40

r USA 1914

175 10 J15ll

~ 5SOIIIO

AjNII USA 1969

S 12 211667

914600 ltWIIOO

Mangt USA 2Q2S

10

hob J7~n

Mangt USA 102S

10

Ilodoo umooo

w USA 202S

10

200S 111

_ (2005 lIS I)


110

1110 USl tl_

oMn4

S13

U1 1011 0063

0

9012

1009 IS1110

1111

1$

US 6657 2

11010

276lS

1I142 419 104

12133

751 2240 141


ANtoIT_c2tOS

110 U7

tlm

111

5730 57

IlllO

US

I 1_

1902

LII

)11 US

6U

)5lI

276154 21415

412

2l3

128)12 UIJJ

22

UO



50000

40000 Q Cl 30000 Co

20000 C

gtoJ 10000

00000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

011

V bullbullr


36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

36








21 at Century Waves





WHATS NEXT







WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2




WINDOW 5










WHATS NEXT







1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2




1973 Oil Crisis


1971



1966










1951




2028



2024














Trek generation









th AlAAlASlVIEI~







~------------- -----~ shy



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2



Waslow 5













NOTES












40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

40

















21 st Century Waves

































Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2























Cordell21 st

Table 2 MEP DATA



Year Pur 1875 1869 1914 1969 2025 2025 2025

MUS$

Cost 44 to GSR 2236 375 25400

Years 10 10 12 10 10 10

Ann Cost 100 508 3750 211667

Projected GOPs


Real GOP (2005 US $) 118140 550100 4224000 37127900 26879000 12491000

Annual Costs

Ann Cost (2005 US $) 870 573 9082 38145 27615 12833

Su-Ann Rei Cos05 100 659 10439 43845 31742 14751

Pan-AnnRei Cost05 0152 100 1585 6657 4819 2240

Ap-AnnRel Cost05 00096 0063 100 420 304 141

Frac GOP 000324 00010 00021 00010 00010 00010

Total Costs

Tot Cost (2005) $M 870 5730 108984 381451 276154 128332

Tot Cost (2005) $8 087 573 10898 38145 27615 12833

Pan-RelTot Cost05 0152 100 1902 666 482 224

Ap-ReiTot CostOS 001 005 100 350 253 118

2

21ST CENTURY WAVES: FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY BOOMS AND HUMAN

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