21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE...

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21st Century Energy Transition Peter de Menocal Columbia University pdemenocal Chesapecten jeffersonius

Transcript of 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE...

Page 1: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

21st Century Energy Transition

Peter de MenocalColumbia University

pdemenocal

Chesapecten jeffersonius

Page 2: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

The ethical case for fossil fuels

Page 3: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Emissions are decoupling from wealth

FORECAST

GDP

Emissions

Page 4: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

US (sort of) on target for Paris

Page 5: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Wind and solar are cheap - getting cheaper

cost

cost

capacity

capacity

Page 6: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Why? Technology “learning rates”

Page 7: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Grid Parity

Page 8: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998
Page 9: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Solar area needed to supply US electricity

US NREL

Page 10: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Batteries getting cheaper, too

Page 11: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Something we agree on

Page 12: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Clean energy investment is growing

BNEF, 2018

$300 billion/year

https://about.bnef.com/clean-energy-investment/
Page 13: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Jobs!

Clean energy jobs outpace fossil fuel: 3:1

3.3 million US jobs (2019)

Page 14: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Electrifying transport

Page 15: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Our deep carbon diet

Page 16: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

U.S. Clean Energy Example

1.15 overbuild Solar + WindPlus 12 hours storage

100% U.S. electricity demand

Shaner et al. (E&ES, 2018)

Page 17: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

• Time is not our friend • Radically increase renewables + storage

• Radically increase efficiency• Electrify everything• Negative emissions

Staying below +2.0°C

Page 18: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

storage

Page 19: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Science, engineering, business, finance

Solutions for Sustainability

Page 20: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

“Negative emissions” may be needed

Direct air CO2 capture … …used to grow fruit & veggiesClimeworks

http://www.climeworks.com
Page 21: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Carbon Storage: Turn CO2 to mineral

Page 22: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

Plan D: Geoengineering

Page 23: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

• Time is not our friend • Radically increase renewables + storage

• Radically increase efficiency• Electrify everything• Negative emissions

Staying below +2°C

Page 24: 21st Century Energy Transition · Bloomberg "NANCE m=24.30/0 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 100 976 Crystalline Si PV module 1998

climateandlife.columbia.edu


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