2.11 CHBA Pulse Survey: Renovator Highlights Peter Norman Chief Economist, Altus Group CHBA...
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Transcript of 2.11 CHBA Pulse Survey: Renovator Highlights Peter Norman Chief Economist, Altus Group CHBA...
2.11 CHBA Pulse Survey: Renovator Highlights
Peter Norman Chief Economist, Altus Group
CHBA Renovators’ Council February 23, 2011
Pulse: what it is and how we do itPulse: what it is and how we do it
Mail survey
Typically 6-8 page questionnaire
Tracking questions, as well as new issues each survey
Sent to all CHBA builder members (new home builders, renovators)
External sponsors – CMHC and Natural Resources Canada
Analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting
A valuable source of informationabout the homebuilding industryA valuable source of informationabout the homebuilding industry
Up-to-date monitoring - takes the “pulse” of the homebuilding industry
Gets the views of both new home builders and renovators
Trending – tracks how key aspects of the homebuilding industry are changing over time
Regional results - can look at variation across the country
Benchmarking - lets individual homebuilders gauge their performance against other builders
Fills the gaps – allows exploration of issues not covered by other sources that are important to the homebuilding industry
Recent Pulse HighlightsRecent Pulse Highlights
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Higher Lower
Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011
% of Renovators% of Renovators
Renovators in all regions except Ontario reported higher activity on average in past year…
Change in renovation activity in last 12 monthsChange in renovation activity in last 12 months
37
70
83
32
16
24
36
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011
% of Renovators% of Renovators
… and in general were relatively optimistic about increased work for the next year
Expected change in renovation activity in next 12 monthsExpected change in renovation activity in next 12 months
36
25
6 7 7
18
35
26
7 6
11
15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Zero 1-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-99% 100%
2010 2011
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
% of Builders% of Builders
Almost two-thirds of CHBA builder members involved in renovation work to some degree
% of Total Revenues Generated by Renovation Work% of Total Revenues Generated by Renovation Work
24
17 16
4449
353230
18
26
4044
2832
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec* Atlantic Canada
2010 2011
Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2011
About 1 in 4 builder members generate at least half of revenues from renovation work
% of Pulse Respondents Reporting at Least 50% of Revenues% of Pulse Respondents Reporting at Least 50% of RevenuesIn Past Year Generated from Renovation WorkIn Past Year Generated from Renovation Work
17
1
5
4
9
6
3
15
42
10
9
7
6
6
6
4
54
1
10
5
9
6
3
8
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Underground economy
Mold
Increasing Builder Liability
Insurance Rates/Premiums
Consumer Confidence
Builder profitability
Insurance Coverage
Shortages of trades/labourWinter 2011
Winter 2010
Winter 2009
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
% of Renovators% of Renovators
This year’s top critical problems for renovators
18
13
20
27
14
9
1513
26
19
14
11
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
$10,000 orless
$10,001-$25,000
$25,001-$50,000
$50,001-$100,000
$100,001-$200,000
$200,001+
Winter 2010
Winter 2011
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
% of Renovators% of RenovatorsAverage size: Average duration:Average size: Average duration:
$50,000$50,000 8 weeks8 weeks
$50,000$50,000 8 weeks8 weeks
Almost half of renovation projects by CHBA/APCHQ members valued at more than $50,000
Altus Group’s Outlook for Renovation Spending
Altus Group’s Outlook for Renovation Spending
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Q11993
Q11994
Q11995
Q11996
Q11997
Q11998
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Source: Altus Group based on Statistics Canada dataSource: Altus Group based on Statistics Canada data
2002=100 (constant dollars)2002=100 (constant dollars)
After more than doubling in previous 10 years, real renovation spending stallsAfter more than doubling in previous 10 years, real renovation spending stalls
Source: Altus Group, The FIRM Residential Mortgage SurveySource: Altus Group, The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey
% of Homeowners Agreeing Completely Planning Renovations over $5,000% of Homeowners Agreeing Completely Planning Renovations over $5,000
Homeowner renovation intentions Wane
1211
1011
1011
14
12 1211
10
1312
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Source: Altus Group, The FIRM Residential Mortgage SurveySource: Altus Group, The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey
% of % of HomeownersHomeowners Agreeing Completely That They Plan to Undertake Renovations Agreeing Completely That They Plan to Undertake Renovations of At Least $5,000 in the Next Yearof At Least $5,000 in the Next Year
Renovation intentions by region
1011
17
1312
17
13
7
13 13
10
12
7
10
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
B.C. Alberta Man./Sask. Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Sept.09 & Dec.09 Sept.10 & Dec.10
Source: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada dataSource: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada data
Total Residential Renovation Spending, Canada, $Billions, CurrentTotal Residential Renovation Spending, Canada, $Billions, Current
Home renovations, an estimated $59 billion industry
30.333.3
37.441.5
45.950.6
53.1 54.458.6 57.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011f
HLOCHLOC
27
16
13
7
6
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
13
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Renovations
Purchase a vehicle
Debt consolidation
Daily spending
Non-RRSP investment
Travel/vacation
RRSP
Finance home
Education
Vacation property
Auto repairs
Small business
Other
2000
2010
Main Purpose of New Borrowingwith HELOCsMain Purpose of New Borrowingwith HELOCs
% of Borrowers in Past Year
Source: Altus Group/Ipsos-Reid, The FIRM Household Borrowing Survey
Methods of Borrowing to Finance RenovationsMethods of Borrowing to Finance Renovations
31
1
27
24
19
10
9
3
6
28
1
20
16
19
5
5
3
4
0 10 20 30 40 50
HELOC
LOC secured by other assets
Unsecured line of credit
Financial institution credit card
Refinanced mortgage
Retail/home improvement centre card
Personal loan
Private loan
Other
% ofborrowers*
% of dollarsborrowed
% of Homeowners, 2009
* Respondents could choose more than 1 method
Source: Altus Group/Ipsos-Reid, The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey, December 2009
Main Reason for Refinancing a Mortgageto a Larger AmountMain Reason for Refinancing a Mortgageto a Larger Amount
24
22
29
12
4
2
1
1
1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
To directly finance renovations
To consolidate debt originally incurred on renovations
To consolidate other debt
To purchase another home
To purchase a vehicle
To finance a small business
To purchase a vacation property
To purchase an investment property
For other investments
To finance children's education
2000
2010
As % of Mortgage Holders Who Refinanced toa Larger Amount in Previous 2 Years
Source: Altus Group/Ipsos-Reid, The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey
Questions?Questions?