21 February 2011 Tony Weber eWater Tools in Action – The Tamar and Esk Rivers Sediment Modelling...
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Transcript of 21 February 2011 Tony Weber eWater Tools in Action – The Tamar and Esk Rivers Sediment Modelling...
21 February 2011
Tony Weber
eWater Tools in Action – The Tamar and Esk Rivers Sediment Modelling usingSource Catchments
eWater Road Show 21 Feb – Part 2 of 5
Background
Sediment in the Tamar Estuary – Some Questions
•How much?
•Where is it coming from?
•Who might be contributing?
•What might the causes be?
•Will it get worse?
•How do we fix it?
Background
How to model using Source Catchments
•Collect Data
•Understand the catchment
•Build a model
•Check it is OK
•Extract results
•Check it is OK
•Produce final results
Mapping the Catchment
• Major Catchments
Mapping the Catchment
• Land Use
Mapping the Catchment
• Point Sources
Building the Model
• Subcatchment Definition
Building the Model
• Node Link Network
Building the Model
Water Flow•Gauging stations•Real data
Building the Model
• Water Quality
Model Analysis and Uncertainty
Needed to examine how “good” the model was
•It’s possible that random numbers can be just as good
•So ran 1000’s of parameter sets through the model
•Compared to the “calibrated” results
•Gave us an understanding of the uncertainty
•Allowed us to refine the parameters significantly to reduce uncertainty
•Also identified which parameters could be reliably derived from the data
Model Analysis and Uncertainty
Model Results
Basin Loads – TSS
% Distribution
Model Results
Broad Land Use Loads – TSS
Model Results
Spatial Distribution – TSS
•Mean Annual Loads
0 t/yr
3300 t/yr
Model Results
Examining Scenarios
Predevelopment Current Expanded Irrigation0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
TSS (t/yr)
TSS (t/yr)
Scenario
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Lo
ad
What does this all mean?
Sediment Sources
Learnings
TEER Catchment Modelling
• Some of the most detailed modelling in Australia
• High degree of certainty in results
• Indicated areas to focus future management
• These are simply tools and should be used as such
• Partnering with industry – a two way street!
NEXT – Australia’s next gen modelling platform
Dr Peter Wallbrink