third international SYmPoSium on cataStroPhe riSk management 2012

Black Swan eventS

21 - 22 FeBruarY 2012SingaPore

Academic Partner: Acknowledgements:

OverthelastDecade,therehavebeenmanyextremecatastrophesthatwerenotontheradarscreensofplanners,policymakers,riskanalysts,orresearchers.ExamplesaretheGreatAsianTsunamiof2004,HurricaneKatrinaof2005,thePakistanfloodsof2010,the2011TohokuearthquakeandtsunamiandtheresultingFukushimaNuclearPowerPlantmeltdownarebutjustafewexamplesofsuchevents.Theglobalfinancialcrisisof2008,triggeredbythehousingbubble in USA is still reverberating around the world. In 2008unprecedented foodscarcitydictated the rulesofanewpoliticalorderwhereindividualcountrieswerescramblingtosecuretheirownfoodsupplieswithlittleconcernfortherestoftheworld.Theevolving nature of climate also may pose serious challenges tonationsandsocieties.

TherehasbeenmuchwrittenabouthowoftensuchBlackSwanEvents occur. There are even suggestions that such events takeplacemoreoften thanmostexpertshave indicated. It isobviousthattheinter-connectedworldisenteringanewphaseofevolvingchallenges.TheICRMSymposium2012,with itsthemeonBlackSwan Events is timely and aims to bring together researchers,policy makers, governments and risk management gurus tocontemplate and create an understanding of such events andpossiblemitigationstrategies.

ItistheaimoftheSymposiumtoraiseawarenessandunderstandingof Black Swan Events particularly for ASEAN countries. Thiswill contribute towards the development of novel and innovativeapproachesinpossiblymitigatingandmanagingsuchrisks.

ThisSymposiumwillhavethefollowingsub-themes:

1.ThoughtsonBlackSwanEvents2.Asia’sRecentBlackSwanEvents3.FutureBlackSwanEvents-ChallengesandPlans forASEANCountries4.BlackSwanEventsandInsurance5.BlackSwanEvents–PerspectivesfromASEAN

The world’s leading scientists, engineers, researchers, and representatives from the finance, insurance, public and private sectors.

icrm SYmPoSium 2012 - Black Swan eventS21 – 22 FeBruarY 2012 | grand Ballroom i, level 4,

grand coPthorne waterFront hotel, SingaPore

SYmPoSium SYnoPSiS

who will attend

Prof Haresh ShahFoundingChairman,AdvisoryBoard,ICRM;MemberoftheBoardofTrustees,NTU;EmeritusProfessor,StanfordUniversity;Chairman,AsiaRiskCentreInc.,SingaporeFounder&SeniorAdvisor,RMSInc.,USA

WearedelightedtowelcomeyoutoourthirdInternationalSymposiumonCatastropheRiskManagement.ParticularwelcomegoestoourGuest-of-HonourMrS.R.Nathan,SixthPresidentoftheRepublicofSingaporeandH.E.Dato’MisranKarmain, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN , ASEANSocio-Cultural Community. ICRM has made impressiveprogress in developing its research agenda, funding forresearchsupportfromthegovernment,industryandNTUresources,andinestablishingcollaborativeprogrammeswith academic and industrial institutions. This year, ourSymposium theme is on Black Swan Events, a themethathasrepeatedlystuckallofusinrecentyears.Wearecertainthatwithyourparticipation,theSymposiumwouldhelpeveryonegainabetterunderstandingofthepressingissues and to develop mitigation strategies through theconcerted efforts of the government, private and publicsectors,andthesocietyatlarge.

Professor Tso-Chien PANFoundingExecutiveDirector,ICRM,NTU,Singapore

On behalf of NTU’s Institute of Catastrophe RiskManagement(ICRM),Iwouldliketoextendourwarmestgreetings toourGuest-of-HonourMrS.R.Nathan,SixthPresidentoftheRepublicofSingapore,H.E.Dato’MisranKarmain, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN , ASEANSocio-CulturalCommunity,andSpeakersandDelegatestotheThirdSymposium.ICRMwaslaunchedinJanuary2010 and over the past two years, we have receivedvery encouraging support from the government and theindustryfortwokeystart-upprojectsonfloodandseismicriskassessments.Wearehonoured thatAonBenfied isfundingPhDScholarshipswhileWillisReisfundingPost-doctoral Fellowships at ICRM. Several of our industrypartnersarealsocontributingtowardsthecostofrunningthisannualSymposium.ThisApril,ICRMandRMSIncwillco-organizetheSixthMicroinsuranceRoundTableForumwhereour focuswillbeoncatastrophemicro-insurancepilotprojectsinASEANregion.

This Symposium, with a timely theme on Black SwanEvents,willnotonlyhelptoaddressthepertinentglobalconcernsbutalsoinvestigatepolicyimplicationsleadingtoPublic-PrivatePartnershipsinmanagingcatastropheriskwithlowprobabilityofoccurancebutextremelyhighconsequences.Internationalandlocaldelegatescanlookforwardtoengagingpresentationsandpaneldiscussionsfrom the world’s leading experts in catastrophe riskspanning academia, industry and government. We arepositivethatyourpresencewillmakeadifferencetotheSymposium.Lastly,butnottheleast,IwishallofyouamostwonderfultimeinSingapore.

welcome meSSageS

SeSSion 1 – oPening SeSSion

0800 Registration and Arrival

0840 Introductory Remarks Prof Tso-Chien Pan,ExecutiveDirector,ICRM,NTU,Singapore

0850 Welcome Address Prof Freddy Boey,Provost,NTU,Singapore

0900 Address H.E. Dato’ Misran Karmain,DeputySecretary-GeneralofASEAN, ASEANSocio-CulturalCommunity(ASCC)

0910 Address Guest-of-Honor:Mr S.R. Nathan,SixthPresidentofRepublic ofSingapore

0930 Presentation 1: 10 Great Risks Prof Haresh Shah,FoundingChairman,AdvisoryBoard,ICRM; MemberoftheBoardofTrustees,NTU;EmeritusProfessor,Stanford University;Chairman,AsiaRiskCentreInc.,Singapore Founder&SeniorAdvisor,RMSInc.,USA

0950 MorningRefreshment

SeSSion 2 – thoughtS on Black Swan eventS

1020 Presentation 2: In Search of Black Swans Prof Danny Ralph,AcademicDirector,CambridgeCentreforRisk Studies,JudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridge,UK

1040 Presentation 3: Black and Red Swans Dr Gordon Woo,AdjunctProfessor,InstituteofCatastropheRisk Management,NTU,Singapore;CatastropheRiskConsultant,RMS,Inc.,UK

1100 Presentation 4: Mediterranean Volcano Risk – Black Swan Does Not Exist Prof Domenico Giardini,Professor,SeismologyandGeodynamics, ETHZurich;Director,SwissEarthquakeResearchCenter,Switzerland; President,NationalInstituteofGeophysicsandVolcanology,Italy

1120 Presentation 5: Impacts of Climate-Related Black Swan Events on Food Security in South East Asia Dr Roman Hohl,HeadAgricultureAsiaPacific,SwissReinsurance Company,Singapore

1140 Panel Discussion 1 SessionChairman:Prof Su Guaning,PresidentEmeritus,NTU,Singapore

Panelists:1. Prof Haresh Shah,FoundingChairman,AdvisoryBoard,ICRM; MemberoftheBoardofTrustees,NTU;EmeritusProfessor, StanfordUniversity;Chairman,AsiaRiskCentreInc.,Singapore Founder&SeniorAdvisor,RMSInc.,USA2. Prof Danny Ralph,AcademicDirector,CambridgeCentreforRisk Studies,JudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridge,UK3. Dr Gordon Woo,AdjunctProfessor,InstituteofCatastropheRisk Management,NTU,Singapore;CatastropheRiskConsultant, RMS,Inc.,UK4. Prof Domenico Giardini,Professor,SeismologyandGeodynamics, ETHZurich;Director,SwissEarthquakeResearchCenter, Switzerland;President,NationalInstituteofGeophysicsand Volcanology,Italy5. Dr Roman Hohl,HeadAgricultureAsiaPacific,SwissReinsurance Company,Singapore

1210 Lunch

SeSSion 3 – aSia’S recent Black Swan eventS

1310 Presentation 6: Overview of the 1991 Eruption of Pinatubo Volcano and its Aftermath Ms Perla J. Delos Reyes,SupervisingScienceResearchSpecialist GeologyandGeophysicsResearchandDevelopmentDivision PhilippineInstituteofVolcanologyandSeismology(PHIVOLCS),Philippines

Program overviewdaY 1 - 21 FeBruarY 2012, tueSdaY

1330 Presentation 7: Monsoon Flood of 2010 in Pakistan: Climate, Population, Land-Use, and Hazard Prof Charng Ning Chen,EmeritusProfessor,SchoolofCivil& EnvironmentalEngineering,NTU,Singapore

1350 Presentation 8: The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake – What I have been learning from the latest Black Swan event in Japan Mr Takashi Kanemori,DirectorandSeniorExecutiveOfficer, OYOCorporation,Japan

1410 Presentation 9: The Great Thailand Flood 2011: Looking Back and Looking Forward Dr Seree Supratid,Director,CentreonClimateChangeandDisaster RangsitUniversity,Thailand

1430 Panel Discussion 2 SessionChairman:Prof Kusnowidjaja Megawati,Principal Investigator,EarthObservatoryofSingapore(EOS),NTU;Schoolof Civil&EnvironmentalEngineering,NTU,Singapore

Panelists:1. Ms Perla J. Delos Reyes,SupervisingScienceResearchSpecialist, GeologyandGeophysicsResearchandDevelopmentDivision, PhilippineInstituteofVolcanologyandSeismology(PHIVOLCS), Philippines2. Mr Takashi Kanemori,DirectorandSeniorExecutiveOfficer, OYOCorporation,Japan3. Prof Charng Ning Chen,EmeritusProfessor,SchoolofCivil& EnvironmentalEngineering,NTU,Singapore4. Dr Seree Supratid,Director,CentreonClimateChangeand Disaster,RangsitUniversity,Thailand

1500 AfternoonRefreshment

SeSSion 4 – Future Black Swan eventS - challengeS and PlanS For aSean countrieS i

1530 Presentation 10: Health Pandemics – From Black Swans To …? Dr Pane Stojanovski,AdjunctProfessor,InstituteofCatastropheRisk Management,NTU,Singapore;ExecutiveDirector,AsiaRiskCentre, Inc.Singapore

1550 Presentation 11: Food Pandemic: The Coming Shortfall Dr Auguste Boissonnade,ChiefTechnologyOfficer,AsiaRiskCentre,Inc., Singapore

1610 Presentation 12: Potential Threat of Magnitude 8.7 Earthquake at South of Sunda Strait, Indonesia Dr P. J. Prih Harjadi,DeputyDirectorGeneralforGeophysics, MeteorologicalClimatologicalandGeophysicalAgencyofIndonesia, Indonesia

1640 Panel Discussion 3SessionChairman:Prof Edmond Lo,DeputyDirector,MaritimeInstitute@NTU;SchoolofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,NTU,Singapore

Panelists:1. Dr Pane Stojanovski,AdjunctProfessor,InstituteofCatastropheRisk Management,NTU,Singapore;ExecutiveDirector,AsiaRiskCentre, Inc,Singapore2. Dr Auguste Boissonnade,ChiefTechnologyOfficer,AsiaRiskCentre, Inc.,Singapore3. Dr P. J. Prih Harjadi,DeputyDirectorGeneralforGeophysics, MeteorologicalClimatologicalandGeophysicalAgencyofIndonesia, Indonesia

1710 End of Day 1 Symposium

1830 Symposium Dinner @ Singapore Flyer

SeSSion 5 – Black Swan eventS & inSurance

0900 Presentation 13: Black Swan Events and the Reinsurance Industry of Asia Dr Suzanne Corona,Head,NaturalPerils,AsiaCapitalReinsurance Group,Singapore

0920 Presentation 14: Black Swan - a Reinsurance Intermediary’s Perspective Mr Vinod Krishnan,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,AonBenfieldAsiaPteLtd, Singapore

0940 Presentation 15: Actually Grey Swans Mr Scott Ryrie,FormerChiefExecutiveOfficerofAllianzSEReinsurance BranchAsia-Pacific,Singapore

1000 MorningRefreshment

1030 Presentation 16: Insurance, Systemic Risk and Black Swan Ms Priya Nandita Pooran,VisitingFellow,TheLauterpachtCentrefor InternationalLaw,UniversityofCambridge,UK;Barrister-at-law(UK); Attorney-at-law(NY),USA

1050 Presentation 17: Systemic Risk and the Global Financial Crisis Mr Andrew Wong,Co-ChiefInvestmentOfficer,ConvexStrategiesGroup atFortressInvestment,Singapore

1110 Panel Discussion 4SessionChairman:Mr George Attard,ManagingDirector,HeadofAonBenfieldAnalytics,AonBenfieldAsia,Singapore

Panelists:1. Dr Suzanne Corona,Head,NaturalPerils,AsiaCapitalReinsurance Group,Singapore2. Mr Vinod Krishnan,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,AonBenfieldAsia PteLtd,Singapore3. Mr Scott Ryrie,FormerChiefExecutiveOfficerofAllianzSE ReinsuranceBranchAsia-Pacific,Singapore4. Ms Priya Nandita Pooran,VisitingFellow,TheLauterpachtCentrefor InternationalLaw,UniversityofCambridge,UK;Barrister-at-law (UK);Attorney-at-law(NY),USA5. Mr Andrew Wong,Co-ChiefInvestmentOfficer,ConvexStrategies GroupatFortressInvestment,Singapore

1145 Lunch

SeSSion 6 – Future Black Swan eventS - challengeS and PlanS For aSean countrieS ii

1300 Presentation 18: Terrorism Risk in ASEAN: Preparing for Black Swan Events

Prof Rohan Gunaratna,ProfessorofSecurityStudies;Head,InternationalCentreforPoliticalViolenceandTerrorismResearch,S.RajaratnamSchoolofInternationalStudies(RSIS),NTU,Singapore

1320 Presentation 19: Is the Frequency of Intense Typhoons Increasing under Global Warming? Prof Johnny C.L. Chan,ChairProfessorofAtmosphericScience; Dean,SchoolofEnergyandEnvironment;Director,GuyCarpenter Asia-PacificClimateImpactCentre,HongKongSAR

1340 Presentation 20: Black Swan Threats: The Cambridge- NTU System Shock Project Dr Gary Bowman,ResearchAssociate,CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,

JudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridge,UK

1400 Presentation 21: Damages and Rehabilitation of Disaster Caused by the 2009 Typhoon Morakot Prof Benson Hsiung,NationalKaohsiungUniversityofAppliedSciences,

Taiwan;SectionChief,CECIEngineeringConsultingInc.,Taiwan

1420 Panel Discussion 5 SessionChairman:Prof Tso-Chien Pan,ExecutiveDirector,ICRM,

NTU,Singapore

Panelists:

1. Prof Rohan Gunaratna,ProfessorofSecurityStudies;Head,

InternationalCentreforPoliticalViolenceandTerrorismResearch,

S.RajaratnamSchoolofInternationalStudies(RSIS),NTU,Singapore

2. Prof Johnny C.L. Chan,ChairProfessorofAtmosphericScience;

Dean,SchoolofEnergyandEnvironment;Director,GuyCarpenter

Asia-PacificClimateImpactCentre,HongKongSAR

3. Dr Gary Bowman,ResearchAssociate,CambridgeCentreforRisk

Studies,JudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridge,UK

4. Prof Benson Hsiung,NationalKaohsiungUniversityofApplied

Sciences,Taiwan;SectionChief,CECIEngineeringConsulting

Inc.,Taiwan

1450 AfternoonRefreshment

SeSSion 7 – Black Swan eventS – PerSPectiveS From aSean

1520 Presentation 22: Impact of Tropical Storm “Sendong” (Washi) in Southern Philippines: Lessons and Strategies for Disaster Risk Reduction Mr Edgardo J. Ollet,ChiefofOperations,NationalDisasterRisk

ReductionandManagementCouncil-OfficeofCivilDefenseOperations

Center,Philippines

1540 Presentation 23: Regional Cooperation during Black Swan Events: Thailand Prospective Ms Pannapa Na Nan,PolicyandPlanAnalyst,Researchand

InternationalCooperationBureau,DepartmentofDisasterPrevention

andMitigation,Thailand

1600 Panel Discussion 6SessionChairman:Prof Haresh Shah,FoundingChairman,Advisory

Board,ICRM;MemberoftheBoardofTrustees,NTU;Emeritus

Professor,StanfordUniversity;Chairman,AsiaRiskCentreInc.,

Singapore;Founder&SeniorAdvisor,RMSInc.,USA

Panelists:

Representatives from ASEAN Committee on Disaster

Management (ACDM)

1700 Close of Symposium Prof Tso-Chien Pan,ExecutiveDirector,ICRM,NTU,Singapore

Program overviewdaY 2 – 22 FeBruarY 2012, wedneSdaY