2021 - Haslam College of Business

AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR

OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

THE STATE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJANUARY2021

Lawrence M. Kessler, Research Associate Professor and Project DirectorBoyd Center for Business and Economic Research

PREPARED BY THE

Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchHaslam College of BusinessThe University of Tennessee

Knoxville, Tennessee

IN COOPERATION WITH THE

Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationTennessee Department of Economic and Community Development

Tennessee Department of Revenueand

Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR

OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

THE STATE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJANUARY2021

ii | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

AUTHORS

UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchLawrence M. Kessler, Research Associate Professor and Project DirectorDonald J. Bruce, Professor of EconomicsCeleste K. Carruthers, Associate Professor of EconomicsWilliam F. Fox, DirectorEnda P. Hargaden, Assistant Professor of EconomicsVickie C. Cunningham, Research AssociateAlex S. Norwood, Research AssociateRichard H. Beem, Jr., Graduate Research Assistant

The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group Kimberly L. Jensen, Professor and UTIA Faculty FellowBurton C. English, Professor and UTIA Institute ProfessorR. Jamey Menard, Research Leader

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee Institute of AgricultureAndrew Griffith, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsDavid Hughes, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Greever Chair of ExcellenceAndrew Muhammad, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Blasingame Chair of ExcellenceAlicia Rihn, Assistant Professor of Agricultural EconomicsAaron Smith, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsEdward Yu, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsJackie Yenerall, Assistant Professor of Agricultural EconomicsEthan Loveday, Undergraduate Researcher

PROJECT SUPPORT STAFF

UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchErin Hatfield, Communications CoordinatorBrittany Permaul, Business Manager

The preparation of this report was financed in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with the customary crediting of the source.

AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

CONTRIBUTORS

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | iii

Lawrence M. KesslerResearch Associate Professor and Project DirectorBoyd Center for Business and Economic Research

PREFACE

This 2021 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report.

The quarterly state forecast through the first quarter of 2023 and annual forecast through 2030 represent the collective judgment of the staff of the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research in conjunction with the Quarterly and Annual Tennessee Econometric Models. The national forecasts were prepared by IHS Markit. Tennessee forecasts, current as of December 2020, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture section provided by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four provides a retrospective as to how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the Tennessee economy beyond what has already been discussed at great length in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. We expand on some topics discussed earlier in the Report, including a large focus on how the labor market has fared so far as well as state tax revenue collections. We also provide brief discussions on social assistance programs in Tennessee, early-stage business formation patterns, and implications for education and learning during the pandemic.

The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development—is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors.

CONTENTS

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................... 1

1.1. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review .................................................................................................................1

Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................1

Consumption .................................................................................................................................................2

Effects of Lockdown Orders ...........................................................................................................................5

Effects of Economic Impact Payments ...........................................................................................................6

The Labor Market ...........................................................................................................................................6

A Point on Percentages and Annualized Rates..............................................................................................8

Time-Use ......................................................................................................................................................10

Investment and Interest Rates......................................................................................................................11

Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts ............................................................................................................12

International Trade ......................................................................................................................................14

Productivity & Wages ..................................................................................................................................14

1.2. The U.S. Forecast ..........................................................................................................................................15

Consumption ................................................................................................................................................15

The Labor Market .........................................................................................................................................16

Investment and Interest Rates......................................................................................................................16

International Trade .......................................................................................................................................16

Government Budget .....................................................................................................................................16

Inf lation & Prices ..........................................................................................................................................17

The Housing Market .....................................................................................................................................18

1.3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ..........................................................................................................................18

1.4. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................19

CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ......................................................... 20

2.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................20

2.2. The Current Economic Environment.............................................................................................................23

The Labor Market .........................................................................................................................................23

Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic .......................................................................................28

Income, Earnings and Taxable Sales ..........................................................................................................29

International Trade and Tennessee..............................................................................................................31

2.3. Short-Term Outlook .......................................................................................................................................34

2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance ...................................................................................................................38

2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy ..........................................................39

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................39

Agriculture and Primary Forestry ..................................................................................................................39

Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee...............................................................................49

Rural Economies and Well-Being .................................................................................................................51

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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | v

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate.........................................................................51

Summary ......................................................................................................................................................53

References ...................................................................................................................................................55

CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK .......................................................... 58

3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 58

3.2. Nonfarm Employment ...................................................................................................................................59

3.3. Unemployment ..............................................................................................................................................64

3.4. Population and Labor Force .........................................................................................................................66

3.5. Income, Earnings and Output .......................................................................................................................74

3.6 Forecast at a Glance ......................................................................................................................................77

CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY ............................................................................ 78

4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................78

4.2. COVID-19 and the Labor Market ..................................................................................................................80

4.3. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Public Assistance Program Participation ...................................................93

4.4. Taxes During the Pandemic ..........................................................................................................................95

Sales Taxes .................................................................................................................................................95

Corporate Taxes .........................................................................................................................................100

Motor Vehicle Taxes ..................................................................................................................................100

Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes ........................................................................................................100

4.5. COVID-19 and Education ............................................................................................................................101

4.6. COVID-19 and Early-Stage Business Formation .......................................................................................103

4.7. Federal Stimulus during the Pandemic ......................................................................................................105

4.8. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................108

4.9. References ...................................................................................................................................................109

APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA ......................................................................................................................... 1

Quarterly History Tables .........................................................................................................................................2

Annual Forecast Tables ........................................................................................................................................26

APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA ..................................................................................................................... 39

Quarterly History Tables .......................................................................................................................................40

Annual Forecast Tables ........................................................................................................................................64

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FIGURES AND TABLES

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................... 1Figure 1.1: USA Experienced a Moderate Recession by International Comparison...........................................1Figure 1.2: Mid-Year Swings in 2020 Real GDP Growth Eclipse Anything in Recent History .............................2Figure 1.3: Different Experiences in Percent Change in Spending by Sector .....................................................3Figure 1.4: Consumer Sentiment Index Registered a Record-Breaking Drop .....................................................3Figure 1.5: Twelve-Month Percent Change in Domestic Auto Sales ...................................................................5Figure 1.6 Unemployment Surged in 2020 ............................................................................................................7Table 1.1: Unemployment at the Monthly Level ....................................................................................................8Figure 1.7: Small Business Employment in the Hospitality Sector was Particularly Affected ............................9Figure 1.8: Google Search Trends Indicate Shift to Household Production (Jan 2020 = 100) ..........................10Figure 1.9: COVID-era Volatility in Historical Perspective ..................................................................................12Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD) ..........................................................................................17

CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ......................................................... 20Table 2.1: Spring Job Losses Across the Southeast ..........................................................................................23Figure 2.1: In April, Job Losses were Seen Across All Broad Sectors of the Tennessee Economy, but Leisure

and Hospitality was Hit the Hardest .............................................................................................................24Figure 2.2: Employment Gains in Most Tennessee Sectors Have Yet to Make up for the Spring Losses .......24Figure 2.3: Unemployment Rates Spiked in April, but Have Drifted Downward Since .....................................25Figure 2.4: Employment Among High and Middle Wage Workers in Tennessee are Nearly Back to Pre-Pandemic

(January 2020) Levels, While Employment Among Low Wage Workers is Still Severely Depressed ..............26Figure 2.5: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, September 2020 ...........................................................27Figure 2.6: Growth in Weekly Business Applications .........................................................................................28Figure 2.7: Average Hourly Earnings in Tennessee Have Risen in Recent Years ..............................................29Figure 2.8: Per Capita Income Grew Across the Southeast Region in the Second Quarter of 2020 ..............30Figure 2.9: Tennessee Employment in Foreign Owned Companies...................................................................32Figure 2.10: Tennessee’s Top-5 Exports in 2019 .................................................................................................33Figure 2.11: Tennessee Exports Tumbled Through First Nine Months of 2020 .................................................33Figure 2.12: Tennessee Exports were Hit Hardest in its Two Largest Markets: Canada and Mexico ..............34Table 2.2: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ......................................35Figure 2.13: Job Growth Stabilizes After a Tumultuous 2020 ............................................................................36Table 2.3: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ..................36Table 2.4. Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production, and Yield for Corn, Cotton,

Soybeans, and Wheat, 2015-2020* ..............................................................................................................40Table 2.5. Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2015-2020* ..............................................................41Table 2.6. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020:

Total and by Major Product Category ..........................................................................................................45Figure 2.14. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in 2018 and 2019:

Top 10 Product Categories ...........................................................................................................................45Table 2.7. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020

by Top 10 Partner Countries (Destinations) .................................................................................................46

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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | vii

Figure 2.15. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports (monthly): 2017-2020 ................................47 Table 2.8. Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2015-2019 ...............................48Table 2.9. Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2017 ..............................................................49Table 2.10. Direct and Multiplier Effects for Economic Activity, Employment,

and Total Value-Added for Selected Agriculture and Forest Industries in Tennessee, 2018 .....................50Table 2.11. Population, Household Income, Education Level, Unemployment,

and Poverty Across Rural County Status, Tennessee .................................................................................51Table 2.12. Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry PPP Loans, Loan Dollars, and Jobs Retained ..............52Table 2.13. Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Loan Amounts, and Jobs Retained

for Tennessee’s Nursery, Greenhouse, and Landscape Service Industries ...............................................52

CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK .......................................................... 58Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment in TN by Broad Sector (thousands of jobs) ...............................60Figure 3.1: Tennessee Will See Slow but Positive Manufacturing Employment Growth Over the Long Term

While the U.S. Manufacturing Sector Will See Labor Force Contractions .................................................61Figure 3.2: Nonfarm Job Growth Will See a Strong Post Pandemic Recovery Before Reverting Back to its

Slower Long Term Trend ...............................................................................................................................61Figure 3.3: Total Covered Employment Growth: March 2010 to March 2020 ....................................................63Figure 3.4: Total Private Manufacturing Employment Growth: March 2010 to March 2020 .............................63Figure 3.5: Following a Massive Spike in 2020, the Unemployment Rate will Trend Downward through the

Rest of the Long-Term Forecast Horizon .....................................................................................................64Figure 3.6: Unemployment Rates in August 2010 and August 2020 ..................................................................65Table 3.2: Birthrates in Tennessee Have Fallen For Women in Most Age Groups ............................................66Figure 3.7: Net Migration into Tennessee, a Crucial Component of Population Growth,

has Risen in Recent Years ............................................................................................................................67Figure 3.8: Educational Attainment Rates in Tennessee are Lower than the National Average ......................68Figure 3.9: Educational Attainment: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher .....................................................................69Figure 3.10: Median Earnings are Higher Among those with Higher Educational Attainment ........................70Figure 3.11: Unemployment Rates are Lower Among those with Higher Educational Attainment .................70Figure 3.12: In April, Unemployment Rates Rose Nationwide,

but the Spike was Much More Pronounced for Those with Lower Educational Attainment Levels .........71Figure 3.13: Obesity Rates Have Risen Faster in Tennessee ............................................................................72Figure 3.14: Smoking Rates in Tennessee Are Well Above the National Average,

But Have Fallen in Recent Years ..................................................................................................................72Figure 3.15: Fewer Tennesseans Have Health Care Coverage .........................................................................73Figure 3.16: More Tennesseans Are Living with Serious Health Conditions ....................................................73Figure 3.17: Per Capita Personal Income: 2010 to 2018 ....................................................................................75Figure 3.18: A Persistent Loss in Potential GDP for the State ..........................................................................76Table 3.3: Total and Manufacturing Business Establishments, 2010 and 2018................................................76

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CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY .......................................................................... 78Figure 4.1: The Bulk of Initial Job Losses Came From the Leisure and Hospitality Sector ..............................80Figure 4.2: Despite Positive Job Growth in Recent Months, Nonfarm Job Levels are Still Well Below their

Pre-Pandemic Peak ......................................................................................................................................81Figure 4.3: Monthly Job Gains Have Slowed Since June ...................................................................................81Figure 4.4: Employment in Most Tennessee Sectors has yet to Claw Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels .............82Figure 4.5: Unemployment Rates Spiked in the Spring, but have Largely Trended Downward Since.............83Figure 4.6: Despite a Declining Unemployment Rate, Long Term Unemployment is Rising Rapidly...............84Table 4.1: The Percentage of Permanent Job Losses Continues to Rise..........................................................84Figure 4.7: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, March, April, and October 2020 ...................................85Figure 4.8: National Unemployment Rate by Gender – 16 Years and Older ......................................................87Figure 4.9: National Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity – 16 Years and Older ..........................................87Figure 4.10: National Unemployment Rate by Age Bracket ...............................................................................88Figure 4.11: Unemployment was More Widespread Among Those with Lower Educational Attainment ........89Figure 4.12: Job Losses in Tennessee were More Severe and More Persistent Among Low Wage Workers 89Figure 4.13: Initial Claims Skyrocketed in the Spring but have Trended Downwards Since ............................90Figure 4.14: At the Onset of the Pandemic Nearly Half of All Initial UI Claims Came from the Leisure and Hos-

pitality Sector ................................................................................................................................................91Figure 4.15 Nine Months into the Pandemic Recession, Total Initial UI Claims are More Evenly Distributed

Across Sectors ..............................................................................................................................................91Figure 4.16: Continued UI Claims in Tennessee Have Come Down Considerably in Recent Weeks, But Still

Remain Well Above Historic Levels ..............................................................................................................92Figure 4.17: Continued UI Claims Still Heavily Lean Towards the Service Sectors ..........................................92Figure 4.18: While UI Claims Skyrocketed, Participation of Other Public Assistance Programs Saw Only

Modest Growth or went Unchanged During the Pandemic ........................................................................94Figure 4.19: Real and Nominal Tax Revenue Growth is Volatile, 1999 - 2020 ...................................................96Figure 4.20: Sales Tax Collections Fell in Many Categories but Rose in Many Others.....................................97Figure 4.21: Consumers have Shifted their Spending to Goods and away from Services ...............................97Figure 4.22: Tennessee Tax on New Remote Sellers has Risen Dramatically Since Economic Nexus went into

Effect ..............................................................................................................................................................98Figure 4.23: Local Sales Tax Revenue Growth Rates have Been Very Strong ..................................................99Figure 4.24: Housing’s Strength Apparent in Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes ........................................100Figure 4.25. Community and Technical College Enrollment is Normally Countercyclical, Rising During Eco-

nomic Downturns ........................................................................................................................................102Figure 4.26: Indexed Business Applications in Tennessee and the Nation During 2020 ................................104Figure 4.27: Business Applications Across Industries at the National Level ..................................................104Figure 4.28: Fiscal Aid through the CARES Act Provided Relief through Six Broad Channels ......................105Figure 4.29: Federal Funds Rate is Back Near Zero .........................................................................................106Figure 4.30: Fed Asset Holdings Skyrocketed in 2020 .....................................................................................107

FIGURES AND TABLES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | ix

THE U.S. ECONOMY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The impact of COVID-19 is the key economic takeaway from 2020, and the detrimental effects will be remembered for a long time. The combination of reduced aggregate demand and government lockdowns resulted in record-breaking declines in our economy.

Real GDP is projected to fall by 3.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole. This 3.5 percent reduction obscures the real ups-and-downs that households and businesses experienced throughout the year. The volatility was unprecedented on an historical scale. For twenty consecutive quarters prior to 2020, the annualized growth rate of GDP ranged between 0 and 5 percent. In contrast, it declined by 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020. The recovery was strong in third quarter, with growth of 33.1 percent, another record-breaking figure. If U.S. GDP fell off a cliff in the early part of 2020, it had largely climbed back up by year-end. Using this analogy, it would be wrong to conclude that the economy simply stood still. Close inspection of the numbers is needed to understand the full picture.

The President declared the spread of COVID-19 as a national emergency on March 13. State governors followed with lockdown orders throughout March and April, effectively shutting down large parts of the economy. Businesses closed and unemployment soared. The unemployment rate started the year below 4 percent. By April it had reached 14 percent. The labor market participation rate sank to its lowest level since 1973. Unemployment will end the year with an average rate of about 8 percent.

Just as the full-year GDP results hide the realities of the within-year changes, the overall employment numbers obscure the fact that the recession did not affect everyone equally. Some workers suffered more than others. The COVID-19 upheaval fell disproportionately on relatively low-earners. Employment for workers who earn less than $27,000 a year is still down over 20 percent compared to January. For higher wage workers – people earning at least $60,000 – employment had more than fully recovered from its dip by the end of November.

After years of steady wage growth, the arrival of COVID-19 devastated consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index registered a 22 point drop. That is the largest decline on record. When coupled with widespread lockdown orders, consumption plummeted. On an annualized basis, Personal Consumption Expenditures declined by 33.2 percent in Quarter 2. The declines were more severe in sectors like Hospitality and Entertainment, both of which contracted by more than 50 percent.

These declines were largely temporary. The improved public health conditions, the arrival of stimulus checks, and the gradual relaxation of the lockdown orders all served to bolster demand in Quarter 3. Per capita consumption grew by 40 percent. As growth in the latter part of the year came in the aftermath of historically unprecedented declines, it is not surprising that the two effects largely cancel out. Overall, consumption will fall by 3.9 percent in 2020. Compared to the within-year changes, this is a relatively modest decline.

Not all the economic news in 2020 was of destruction. Some sectors, notably those associated with working-from-home, benefited from the shifting nature of the economy. Information Processing Equipment such as computers grew by 37.7 and 60.8 percent in Quarters 2 and 3 respectively. Software sales will finish the year 27 percent higher than 2019.

Government stimulus efforts succeeded in averting a significantly worse crisis. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and related measures injected $2 trillion into the economy. Households received Economic Impact Payments, which provided a married couple with two children up to $3,400 in direct cash assistance. The duration for unemployment benefits was extended, and supplemented by $600 per week for part of the year. Emergency loans were made available to businesses, and more than $600 billion was deployed to support the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Hospitals and local governments received $250 billion in coronavirus-related aid.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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THE U.S. ECONOMY, CONTINUED

The Short-Term Economic Outlook

Tennessee, the nation, and the world are currently in the grips of a health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread sickness and death and has upended the way we live, the way people work, businesses operate, students learn, and consumers spend. In the spring of 2020, the spread of COVID-19, coupled with efforts to slow its trajectory, resulted in a rapid onslaught of economic damage. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was enjoying the longest continuous economic expansion (10 years and 8 months) since the 1850s. The economic expansion ended in February, and the nation entered into its 33rd recession in March 2020.

The current recession, triggered by the pandemic, is unique in its breadth, depth, and rapidity. From March to April, nearly 400 thousands Tennesseans lost their jobs and the unemployment rate went from a record low 3.3 percent to a record high 15.5 percent in a one-month period. The economic impact would have likely been even

worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed), which provided enhanced UI benefits, loans, and stimulus checks to help keep (some) households afloat and struggling businesses from failing.

The short-term outlook calls for positive economic growth in the near-term as we dig out of the current recession, however, the recovery may be one of fits and starts as we continue to grapple with the virus. In the short-term, economic activity will largely depend on the trajectory of the virus, accompanying government responses (to control the virus or provide fiscal support), the development and deployment of a vaccine or vaccines, as well as the behavior of individuals across the state, nation, and world. The Tennessee forecast assumes that a vaccine will be made widely available in the U.S. by the middle of 2021, which will provide a boost to the economic recovery. New rounds of fiscal stimulus are also possible but the timing and size are so uncertain that it would

THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY

In total, government spending increased from 22 percent to 32 percent of GDP.

Stock markets had a very respectable year. Buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates toward zero, the S&P 500 increased by 13 percent. This came after a year of substantial volatility in stock market valuations, with the extent of share price movements in the same ballpark as Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Crash of 1929.

The U.S. economy will see a continuation of recovery in 2021. The total value of goods and services bought and sold will reach $22 trillion. Overall, real GDP growth will average 3.1 percent for the year. The unemployment rate will continue to fall, dipping towards 5.0 percent in December. This economic growth will continue longer-term, modestly, with GDP growth of 2.5 percent predicted in 2022 and 2023. As a result, real GDP is projected to recover to its pre-pandemic peak by 2022.

As vaccinations eliminate public health risks and boost economic growth, increased spending will be the main driver of recovery. Consumers’ renewed confidence will see a shift in expenditure towards durable goods. After years of declines, sales of new cars will increase by 4.8 percent. Recovery of the food service and hospitality sectors will see services’ share of spending increase. Nonresidential Fixed Investment will grow by 3.4 percent. Ground will break on over 1 million new single-family homes, and house prices will increase by 5.4 percent.

The stimulus measures enacted in 2020 increased spending without accompanying tax increases. These increases will persist as national debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio currently exceeds 100 percent, and will continue to grow without substantial legislative attention. Stimulus measures should be targeted rather than broad-based, and aimed at boosting spending and increasing labor market participation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | xi

be impossible to incorporate their effects into the short-term forecast.

Economic activity in Tennessee, as measured by inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP), is projected to fall by 3.5 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic and pandemic-related responses. A comparable decline in economic activity is projected for the nation as a whole. Expectations are that the trough of the recession occurred in April of 2020 and that the state economy will see positive growth going forward as we dig out from the spring low point. As a result, Tennessee real GDP will increase by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Tennessee real GDP is projected to surpass its pre-pandemic peak level by the end of 2022.

Tennessee nonfarm jobs will fall by 3.7 percent in 2020, representing a loss of 116 thousand jobs compared to the year prior. Tennessee’s labor market will fare better than the nation as a whole, where nonfarm jobs are projected to contract by 5.7 percent in 2020, representing a loss of 8.5 million jobs for the year as a whole. For both the state and the nation, the bulk of these losses occurred in the second quarter, when nonfarm jobs fell by 32.4 percent in Tennessee and 40.0 percent for the nation. Job growth has since turned positive. In Tennessee, nonfarm jobs grew by 18.8 percent in the third quarter and are projected to increase by 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee will continue to recover in 2021, with moderate growth in the first half of the year as the virus continues to shape the recovery, followed by stronger growth in the third and fourth quarter as vaccines are made widely available throughout the state and the nation. As a result, nonfarm jobs will increase by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022, but will not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2023. However, some segments of the state economy will show scarring well past 2023. Employment in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector, one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, will not fully recover until 2024, and employment in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout the decade, due to rising levels of uncertainty, and a

continued reliance on automation and advanced manufacturing. Even within the manufacturing sector, the recovery has been uneven, as factories that provide popular consumer goods have seen a surge in demand, while those relying on business-to-business sales continue to struggle.

As the labor market recovers, the state unemployment rate will trend downwards as well. Tennessee’s unemployment rate is expected to average 7.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole, before quickly falling to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. The national unemployment rate is projected to follow a similar trajectory.

Nominal taxable sales will grow by a weakened 1.7 percent in 2020, as sales at eating and drinking places, and hotels and motels cratered in the spring. Depressed sales of in-person services were offset by strong sales growth among taxable goods, especially at food and liquor stores as well as home improvement and sporting goods stores. The collection of sales tax on online transactions also helped to keep taxable sales growth from turning negative in 2020. Taxable sales will grow at a much stronger rate of 4.7 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022.

Finally, nominal personal income is projected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2020, due solely to a boom in federal transfer payments (i.e. enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus checks), which expanded by an annual rate of 463.0 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter of 2020 (as compared to the previous quarter). State personal income growth will slow to 1.1 percent in 2021 as transfer payments normalize, but will still outpace national income growth, which is projected to fall by 1.4 percent in 2021. The national economy saw a much stronger uptick in federal transfer payments during the second quarter of 2020 (up 853.9 percent compared to the previous quarter), and therefore the subsequent decline in transfer payments will be much more severe, and will pull national income growth into the negative territory in 2021. Nominal personal income in Tennessee will grow at a more stable rate of 4.6 percent in 2022. On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal income in Tennessee will advance by 1.8 percent in FY20/21 and 3.3 percent in FY21/22.

THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Tennessee’s Agricultural & Forest Industries & Rural Industries

The agri-forestry industrial complex (farming/landowner through manufacturing) directly contributed (without multiplier effects) $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs in 2018. The agri-forestry industrial complex contributed $14.9 billion in value-added. When accounting for multiplier effects, the agri-forestry industrial complex added $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Agriculture, with multiplier effects, accounted for 8.1 percent of the state’s economy and generated $58.9 billion in output, adding close to 255,000 jobs, with over 95,000 employed (both full- and part-time) directly in agricultural production.

Farming operations occupy about 10.8 million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area. Average farm size is around 155 acres. In 2019, pre-pandemic, the value of farm production rose slightly from $4.20 in 2018 to $4.28 billion (USDA/ERS 2020e). Net farm income, however, rose markedly from $297 million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019, averaging $12,626 per operation.

Just under half Tennessee’s farmland is operated as cropland, with Tennessee’s four largest row crops being corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Based on 2019 national cash receipts by commodity, Tennessee ranks 17th in corn production ($498.1 million; 1.0 percent of U.S); 9th in cotton production ($291.6 million; 4.1 percent of U.S.); 16th in soybean production ($602.9 million; 1.8 percent of U.S.); and 18th in wheat production ($81.6 million; 0.9 percent of U.S.). In Tennessee, 2020 growing conditions varied across the state with improved spring planting conditions compared to 2019 but greater moisture variability after planting. Increased market uncertainty with COVID-19 and a low price environment favored increased planted acres of low input cost commodities, such as soybeans, over higher input cost commodities, such as corn or cotton. Looking

towards 2021, prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain. Prices for 2020/21 will depend on export sales, domestic weather and planting conditions, South American crop progress, global weather, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth.

Animals and animal products accounted for 37.0 percent ($1.28 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts in 2019. Based on 2019 cash receipts, cattle and calves was the third largest agricultural sector in Tennessee with cash receipts totaling $487.7 million, which accounted for 14.1 percent of total agricultural cash receipts. The key issues impacting the 2020 animal and animal products markets have been associated with COVID-19, slaughter plant closures, and trade agreements. The pork sector has strong exports and will likely expand further if China continues to demand U.S. pork. However, the beef sector has little reason to expand in 2021, given the supply disruptions that COVID-19 caused throughout the industry. The poultry sector will likely be flat moving into 2021 and the dairy industry is unlikely to expand production nationally.

In 2020, direct payments were issued to producers that had been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) authorized direct payments to producers in two stages. CFAP1 sign-up ended September 11, 2020. Total CFAP1 payments across all categories were over $132.6 million, with 21,223 applications (19,175 of these coming from livestock). Total CFAP2 payments were $124.2 million, with 19,792 applications. For CFAP2, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($39.6 million); corn ($24.1 million); soybeans ($19.9 million); sales commodities ($13.9 million); and cotton ($9.0 million).

Export markets are important to the financial health of Tennessee’s agricultural sector and trade has been impacted by both trade tensions with China and the EU and the COVID-19 pandemic. Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $1.9 billion in FY 2020, down $143 million or 7 percent when compared to the previous fiscal


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | xiii


year. Exports of bulk agricultural commodities, which includes cotton, tobacco, and soybeans, were down $54 million or 7 percent; related product exports, which includes forest products and distilled spirits, were down 8 percent; consumer-oriented exports, which includes meat and dairy products as well as processed food products, were down 6 percent; and exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds were down 6 percent. U.S. agricultural trade outlook, in part, depends on China being able to satisfy its commitments under the Phase One Trade Agreement. According to the agreement, China will import $36.5 billion in U.S. agriculture in calendar year 2020.

Food and beverage industries in Tennessee beyond the farmgate have also been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. A national survey of small businesses showed that many food and fiber-related businesses experienced large negative impacts from the pandemic. In order to offset some of the pandemic’s impacts upon small businesses, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed and signed into law, and included the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which is administered by the Small Business Administration through local lending institutions. The PPP is designed to assist small business owners with maintaining payrolls and other business operating expenses during the pandemic. From April 3 through the first week in August, a total of 8,175 food and beverage firms in Tennessee had approved loans to help cover payroll through the PPP. Reflecting the marked impacts of the pandemic upon these types of businesses, overall half of Tennessee’s food and beverage firms had PPP loans approved. Restaurants, bars, and specialty food services, which have been particularly impacted by the pandemic, represented 5,977 of these 8,175 food and beverage industry firms approved for PPP loans.

An additional concern is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a household’s current ability to obtain enough food, their food sufficiency, and households’ concerns regarding their ability to afford food in the near future.

Approximately 1 in 10 Tennessee households indicated they were food insufficient during the late April to early October time period. In late April, about one in seven food-insufficient households received free meals or groceries in the past week; by mid-July that had increased to one in three households and declined to approximately 13 percent of households in later weeks. School lunches and food pantries or banks were consistently two of the most-used sources of free foods. Compared to food-sufficient households, Tennessee’s food-insufficient households are more likely to have children, have an income below $35,000, and be unemployed. In late April, nearly 57 percent of food-insufficient households were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. Although this percentage declined over the summer, it increased to half of food insufficient households by early October.

The Long-Term Economic Outlook

Tennessee’s long-term outlook, which extends out to 2030, is based on a trend forecast which relies on key underlying economic forces such as population changes and labor force growth. For comparative purposes, Chapter 3 takes a retrospective look at economic growth between 2010 and the present.

Between 2010 and 2019, Tennessee advanced at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 per year and slightly outpaced national output growth of 2.3 percent per year. Over the next ten years, state GDP is projected to increase by 2.3 percent per year, versus a projected 2.6 percent per year for the nation as a whole. Economic growth over the first few years of the new decade will be volatile due to the pandemic and eventual economic recovery, with a sharp contraction in real GDP in 2020 and then relatively strong positive growth in 2021 and 2022. After which, the state will settle into a more stable growth pattern, with compound annual growth of 2.1 percent per year from 2023 to 2030.

Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee are expected to increase by 1.3 percent per year between 2020 and 2030, versus 1.2 percent for the nation as a whole.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

xiv | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


The year 2020 has been heavily defined by the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related disruptions. As a result, the economic effects of COVID-19 have been previously discussed in Chapter 1, from a national perspective, and Chapter 2 from the state’s perspective. This chapter provides additional context for some of those topics, including a large focus on

how the labor market and state tax collections have been affected. In addition, we provide brief discussions on social assistance programs in Tennessee, trends in early-stage business formations, implications for education and learning during the pandemic, and temporary state policy changes enacted to provide greater flexibility to businesses and taxpayers during a

COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY

A relatively strong rate of employment growth is projected for 2021 and 2022 as jobs lost during the pandemic are added back to payrolls, while a more moderate pace of job growth is projected for the second half of the decade. Manufacturing employment in the state will be relatively flat over the ensuing decade, advancing by just 0.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030. That number could be worse. By comparison, nationwide manufacturing employment will shrink by 0.2 percent per year (CAGR) as manufacturers continue to retool and rely more heavily on advanced manufacturing and automation. A strong outlook for Tennessee’s transportation equipment manufacturing sector will help keep manufacturing employment growth in positive territory for the state over the ensuing decade.

The unemployment rate, which has spiked during the pandemic, will quickly trend downwards over the next few years, as the economy continues to recover. The state’s annual average unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent in 2020 (a 4.1 percentage point increase compared to the 2019 annual average), but is projected to fall to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. As the job market continues to recover, the unemployment rate will fall at a slower rate, reaching 4.0 percent in 2025 before resting at 3.9 percent for the remainder of the decade.

In addition to providing a long-term economic outlook, this chapter pays particular attention to measures of workforce quality, such as education and health status. On average, more educated workers are more likely to

engage in the labor force, earn higher wages, and have the ability to purchase more goods and services, while healthier workers can work more intensely and generally miss fewer days of work. In general, however, Tennesseans have lower educational attainment rates and poorer health status than their national counterparts. The importance of health and education has become all the more apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic, as both have provided buffers to some of the pandemic’s adverse effects. For the population as a whole, pandemic-related job losses were less widespread among those with higher education levels, and better health status has been linked to a lower likelihood of severe COVID-19 symptoms. These issues highlight areas where improvements could have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. On the education-front, the state has been very proactive with ambitious initiatives such as the Drive to 55 and the Tennessee Promise. These initiatives are significant steps in the right direction for improving educational attainment in the state, and if sustained could have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. Regarding health status, the state has consistently lagged the nation and has not shown much improvement. Despite poor health metrics, Tennessee has still been a strong economic force over the last decade. However, these metrics reveal areas where the state can improve. And gains in both healthcare and health outcomes could lead to a stronger, healthier, and more productive workforce in Tennessee.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | xv

COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED

time of heightened uncertainty. We also turn to the national economy to discuss key aspects of the aggressive stimulus actions taken by the federal government, including through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).

Tennessee’s labor market was hit hard by the pandemic, as the state economy lost nearly 400 thousand jobs in a one-month period between March and April. Weekly data on unemployment insurance (UI) claims paint a similarly bleak picture, as new claims rose more than 14-fold between the second and third week of March, from 2,702 to an astounding 38,077. This was nearly 25 percent higher than the Great Recession peak, and it was only the beginning. The following week, new UI claims in Tennessee grew to 92,500, and then peaked at 112,186 during the first week of April. For perspective, between mid-March and mid-November, a span of 36 weeks, more than 915 thousand initial UI claims were filed in Tennessee. By comparison, there were roughly 790 thousand new UI claims filed during the entirety of the Great Recession, which lasted 81 weeks.

New UI claims have come down over the ensuing months, as the economy recovers from the initial spring shock, but new claims remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, nationwide long-term unemployment (unemployed for 27 weeks or more) continues to rise, suggesting that a large portion of the unemployed population has likely already exhausted all of their UI benefits.

Since April, the state economy has seen positive month-over-month job growth but there were still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were in February. Furthermore, job gains have slowed considerably since the early parts of the summer, and the recovery thus far, has not been evenly distributed. Economic activity in the state’s service sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, which took the brunt of the initial job losses, is still weak, and while employment levels among higher wage workers, especially

those who can work from home, has nearly recovered, employment levels among lower wage workers is still severely depressed. Using national data, we also show that some subpopulations faced a far harsher labor market shock than others; in particular, females, Black and Hispanic workers, and younger workers.

The chapter also provides an in-depth review of state tax collections during the pandemic. Unlike in previous recessions, state sales tax revenues remained relatively strong during the pandemic, as consumers dramatically shifted their spending patterns in completely different ways than in previous economic downturns. Most notably, consumers have spent far less on in-person services, many of which are not sales-taxable in the state, and have diverted much of their spending to the purchase of goods, which are taxable. In addition, two recent Tennessee legislative changes surrounding the collection of sales taxes on online transactions have provided a boost to state sales tax growth. First, Tennessee enacted economic nexus legislation to require larger remote vendors to begin collecting and remitting sales tax. Second, Tennessee enacted legislation requiring marketplace facilitators, such as Amazon and eBay, to collect taxes on all sales into Tennessee. These legislative changes have been particularly important for tax revenues as trends towards online purchasing accelerated during the pandemic. This section also provides a brief overview of how state-level corporate taxes, motor vehicle taxes, and realty mortgage and transfer tax collections have fared through the pandemic thus far.

The chapter concludes by noting that the state economy has proven to be incredibly resilient, as jobs and economic activity have rebounded relatively quickly from their April lows. However, both are still below pre-pandemic peak levels, and a surging virus puts the economic recovery on shaky ground. We also reemphasize that while aggregate economic indicators point to a recovery, there are still a number of sectors, businesses, individuals, and families that are still facing dire economic conditions.

xvi | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1

2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 1

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY

1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW

In this Chapter —

1.1. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review Introduction Consumption Effects of Lockdown Orders Effects of Economic Impact Payments The Labor Market A Point on Percentages and Annualized

Rates Time-Use Investment and Interest Rates Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts International Trade Productivity & Wages

1.2. The U.S. Forecast Consumption The Labor Market Investment and Interest Rates International Trade Government Budget Inflation&Prices The Housing Market

1.3. Alternative Scenarios

1.4. References

Introduction

History will record 2020 as a year of massive economic upheaval. The 330 million people living in the United States will remember COVID-19 as a source of unprecedented disruption to their lives. While this Report focuses on economic impacts, Americans will not forget the many people who sadly passed during the pandemic.

The economic consequences of COVID-19 were felt worldwide. After multiple years

of consistently positive growth, all major economies fell into recession in 2020. Right across the globe, from the U.S. to Europe to Japan, and exacerbated by the fact that the global economy is so deeply interconnected, developed countries saw growth rates in negative territory. The United States fared relatively well in comparison, with inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) expected to decline about 3.5 percent in the year. Consider Figure 1.1, comparing real GDP growth across

Figure 1.1: USA Experienced a Moderate Recession by International Comparison

Source: OECD

-10

-5

0

5

GDP

Gro

wth

(%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USA Euroarea JapanSource: OECD

Figure 1.1: USA experienced a moderate recession by international comparison

CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy

2 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW

large economies. Europe, for example, saw a drop in output closer to 8 percent.

However, aggregate measures do not capture the enormity of within-year volatility. To understand the full extent of disruption, one needs to look at the data in a granular fashion. Economic activity largely paused from mid-March, with widespread re-openings following in the latter half of the year. The recovery, boosted by the fiscal stimulus provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), was large enough to cancel out many of the temporary losses. The magnitude of these changes is captured in Figure 1.2. Note that the vertical axis is out of proportion with dominant long-run values, showing the historic nature of the reset.

The real GDP growth figures from Quarter 1 through Quarter 3, namely -5.0 percent, -31.4 percent, 33.1 percent, are by far the most volatile in the United States’ history. The stop-start nature of the year is unprecedented compared to other large economic events. For example, the largest quarterly real GDP drop during the Great Recession was -8.4 percent, less than one-third of the change seen in this year’s figures. Further, the volatility was not isolated to a single sector or industry. Almost all

subcomponents of real GDP experienced this see-saw pattern in Quarters 2 and 3. We provide more on how to interpret annualized changes in Section 1.1, A point on percentages and annualized rates.

Consumption

Personal consumption expenditures, such as regular purchases by people at the store, are the largest component of GDP. When added together, and including services, spending on goods and services comprise more than two-thirds of U.S. economy. This has been true for over twenty years.

After adjusting for inflation, overall spending will end the year 3.9 percent lower than the prior year. Overall, per capita consumption declined by 4.3 percent in 2020. However, it is an understatement to say that these consumption patterns had a bumpy ride in 2020. Personal Consumption Expenditure fell 6.9 percent in quarter 1, plummeted to a record-breaking 33.2 percent decline during the worst of the recession in quarter 2, recovered strongly in the third quarter (40.7 percent) to largely correct for that dramatic decline, and are projected to make moderate gains

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS.

-40

-20

0

20

40

%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS

Figure 1.2: Mid-year swings in 2020 real GDP growth eclipse anything in recent historyFigure 1.2: Mid-Year Swings in 2020 Real GDP Growth Eclipse Anything in Recent History



1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED

Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker.

-100

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0

50

100

Feb 1 Apr 1 Jun 1 Aug 1 Oct 1

Grocery Restaurants and Hotels Entertainment & Rec.Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker

Figure 1.3: Different experiences in percent change in spending by sectorFigure 1.3: Different Experiences in Percent Change in Spending by Sector

Source: IHS.

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020Source: IHS

Figure 1.4: Consumer sen�ment index registered a record-breaking dropFigure 1.4: Consumer Sentiment Index Registered a Record-Breaking Drop




(3.4 percent) in the final months of the year.As the economy is so tightly connected

to consumer spending, a year of tumultuous economic activity will be largely driven by changes in consumption patterns. The second quarter reduction in consumption was responsible for more than half of the projected 3.5 percent overall decline in real GDP for the 2020 year as a whole.

These changes were unevenly distributed throughout the economy. With widespread stay-at-home orders and increased concern about community transmission of the virus, certain sectors were more adversely affected than others.

We have already mentioned that consumption includes both goods (like food, or cars) and services (like trips to the movie theater). As a statistical matter, the Census Bureau further distinguishes between durable and non-durable goods. The distinction may seem quite obvious – non-durable goods cannot be stored – but the experience of 2020 encourages a further note on this. Food purchased at the grocery store is storable and thus registers as a durable good. Food purchased at a restaurant and intended for immediate consumption is counted as a Service. In contrast, meals purchased from a restaurant but ordered “to go” are considered non-durable goods. As COVID-era shutdowns shifted eating habits away from restaurants and towards remote dining, these distinctions are important in understanding the 2020 figures.

As with much of the economy, consumer sentiment fell dramatically in the second quarter of the year. The onset of the pandemic saw the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which uses sentiment in 1996 as a baseline of 100, drop over 22 points. This is the largest drop on record, bringing sentiment to levels not seen since the aftermath of the Financial Crisis. Although sentiment recovered slightly in Quarter 4, it remains at a substantially lower level than at any point in the past five years.

As working from home became a prominent feature of the world economy, durable goods saw an increase in importance in 2020. According to the Survey of Business Uncertainty fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 27 percent of full-time employees will continue to at least

partially work from home after the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, then, purchases of Furnishings and other durable household equipment grew by 5.3 percent in 2020, beating even the prior year’s growth of 3.4 percent.

The home-working phenomenon was also reflected in a surge in sales of Information Processing Equipment such as computers, growing by 37.7 percent and 60.8 percent in Quarters 2 and 3 respectively. Sales of Consumer Software will end the year up by over 27 percent. The remarkable performance of these subcomponents will see the sales of Durable Goods increase in value by 6.3 percent over the year.

Nondurable goods were more insulated from the change in spending habits. The share of expenditure classified as Nondurable grew from 20.5 percent to 21.4 percent. This 0.9 percent growth exactly matches the performance of off-premises Food & Beverages, growing from 7.1 percent of personal expenditure to 8.0 percent.

Indeed, some components like food intended for preparation and consumption at home, benefitted. As shown in Figure 1.3, grocery stores have had a good year.

However, the excellent performance in sectors boosted by working from home came at the expense of others. This was particularly true for transport-related sectors, most notably the auto industry. Figure 1.5 shows the sales of new, domestically produced cars relative to the prior month in 2019. We see car dealerships had an extremely challenging year, with monthly sales down by more than 40 percent in March, April, May, and June. Although there will be some recovery next year – a growth rate of 4.8 percent is forecast for 2021 – new automobiles will close out 2020 with sales projected to be down by over 18 percent. This had a knock-on effect in the secondary market, with purchases of used automobiles also down (by 9.7 percent).

The clearest decline in spending was experienced not in goods but in Services, the largest single component of consumption. Just as consumption is a little over two-thirds of the economy, Services comprises 67.2 percent of consumption. In 2020, spending on Services are




projected to fall by 1.8 percentage points, driven by declines in Healthcare expenditure (down 8.1 percent), Transport services (down 22 percent), Food services (down 16.5 percent), and Hotels and Accommodation (down 44.5 percent). Almost all of the decline can be attributed to COVID-related fears.

The extent to which reductions in consumption were caused by rational avoidance behavior versus lockdown orders will be wrestled with in the years to come. While it may be natural to blame government lockdowns for declines in spending, it is not clear how much of the decline would have happened by consumers simply responding themselves.

One paper published in the Review of Asset Pricing Studies by economist Scott Baker and co-authors provides some of the first evidence on immediate consumptions responses to COVID-19. The researchers had access to transaction-level data for all users of a financial services app. These data were used to measure how spending habits changed as evidence of COVID-19 emerged. Consistent with stock-piling behavior, spending was 40 percent higher in late February and early March relative to the weeks prior. Stock-piling

essentially shifts consumption forward in time: as the virus spread, spending fell by 25 percent. However, the authors find that the overall drop in spending was twice as large in states which issued shelf-in-place orders, and that the increase in grocery spending is three times as large for states with these orders.

However, this finding alone is not enough to conclude that the shelter-in-place orders caused the reduction in spending. In particular, the states that issued these orders were also worse hit by the virus in the spring. Thus we cannot disentangle policy-generated declines from fear-induced declines unless we look at a finer geographic unit. As a hypothetical example, suppose Knoxville and Knox County implemented different shut-down orders. We could then contrast the fortunes of businesses either side of the city-county line to investigate the effects of the different orders.

Effects of Lockdown Orders

Drilling down consumption patterns to a fine geographic unit is addressed in a paper by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, both at the University of Chicago. Analyzing cell

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0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 1.5: Twelve-month percent change in domes�c auto salesFigure 1.5: Twelve-Month Percent Change in Domestic Auto Sales

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.




phone data on customer visits to over 2 million businesses, they use a clever strategy to disentangle the effects of lockdowns versus the effects of consumer avoidance behavior. The idea is to look at consumer behavior in the same metropolitan area but across boundaries with different policy responses to the pandemic.

The overall decline in consumer traffic during the height of the pandemic was very large. Visits to businesses fell by 60 percentage points overall. Comparing jurisdictions that implement different pandemic restrictions, the economists found that lockdown orders did indeed make the drop in traffic worse. However, the relative decline is quite small. The authors report that legal restrictions can only explain 7 percentage points of the 60 percentage point drop.

Effects of Economic Impact Payments

In part to counteract the negative effects of shutdown orders, the Federal government passed a large fiscal stimulus in March to boost consumption. One of the primary strategies to kick-start the economy were the Economic Impact Payments, checks and direct deposits of up to $1,200 made to most adults in the country with an additional $500 for every child under 17 years old. The amounts provided were substantial, for example a married couple with two children would receive up to $3,400. The first stimulus payments were made on April 9 via direct deposit. For individuals opting for paper checks rather than direct deposit, the payments came some weeks later.

The effects of these stimulus payments have been studied by economists. Scott Baker of Northwestern University and co-authors – the same team whose research we discussed above – also released a paper examining the effects of receiving the Federal cash payments. The results are very intuitive. There is a sharp increase in the immediate arrival of the stimulus payment. From a baseline of under $100 per day, average spending per day increases to $150 the day of receipt and over $200 for the two days after receipt. Within ten days of receiving the stimulus

check, consumers had spent 30 cents of every dollar they received.

There are important differences in how people spent this money. Research on the 2008 stimulus checks has shown households responding by increasing spending on durable goods. In contrast, the largest spending categories for the 2020 stimulus checks included food and rental payments. Spending on durable goods was modest in comparison.

There are also important differences in how rich versus poorer households spent the stimulus checks. The amount of liquid wealth a consumer has affected how quickly they spent the stimulus check. For individuals with less than $500 in their account, they spend over one-third (36 percent) of the stimulus payments within ten days. For individuals with at least $3,000 in their account, there are almost no immediate changes in spending.

If stimulus packages are intended to kick-start the economy through increased spending, the results in this paper imply that payments should be targeted towards relatively poorer households.

The Labor Market

The magnitude of change people in the labor market experienced in 2020 was unprecedented on an historical scale. It is difficult to overstate the level of volatility seen in unemployment.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Monthly Employment Situation release for April 2020 summarizes the extent of the harm. The unemployment rate increased by more than ten percentage points in April alone. The increase from 4.4 percent to 14.7 percent is all the more stark considering the several years of stability, as demonstrated in Figure 1.6. One year prior, in April 2019, 5.85 million people in the United States were unemployed. The initial effects of COVID-19 were detectable in March 2020, when the number of unemployed people rose to 7.14 million. The surge to 14.7 percent unemployment in just one month was the largest increase on record. It represents job losses for almost 16 million people.




The 16 million people who lost their jobs were distributed throughout the economy. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 47 percent. In the bar and restaurant sector, 5.5 million people lost their jobs. Employment in the retail sector fell by 2 million, manufacturing by 1.3 million, and construction by 0.98 million. Even employment in dental offices, a relatively niche part of the economy, fell by 0.5 million.

The loss of jobs in April perhaps understates the effects of the recession on employment because there was a simultaneous drop in labor force participation. The labor force participation rate measures people working and people seeking work. In addition to the 16 million job losses, the number of people reported as `Not in the labor force’ fell by 6.5 million people. The labor force participation rate, at 60.2 percent, fell to its lowest level since 1973.

Paradoxically, average wages increased in April 2020. This is because lower-paid workers were disproportionately affected by the recession. As a simple mathematical fact, twenty percent of workers have wages in the bottom twenty percentiles of the earnings distribution. For the sectors most affected by COVID-19

recession (e.g. Restaurants and Bars, Travel and Transportation, Entertainment), 54 percent of workers had wages in the bottom twenty percentiles. In other words, the sectors most affected by COVID-19 were more than twice as likely to be relatively low-paying sectors. The workers in these sectors are also the least likely to have substantial rainy-day savings.

As indicated by Figure 1.6 depicting the unemployment rate, the economy started to recover in the aftermath of the April results. Expected to average out at 8.1 percent for the year, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.9 percent at the time of writing. This remains stubbornly high, particularly for some groups: the unemployment rate remains 9.8 percent for those with less than a high school diploma, more than double the 4.2 percent for those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Although it has recovered from April, the number of people not in the labor force remains nearly 5 million higher than twelve months previously.

While the analysis of the April figures highlights the magnitude of the recession, Table 1.1 shows how the labor market has been improving. The picture is mixed. The number

Unemployment rate (%)

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020Source: Bureau of Labor Sta�s�cs

Figure 1.6 Unemployment surged in 2020Figure 1.6 Unemployment Surged in 2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.




Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Unemployment Level 5,892 5,787 7,140 23,078 20,985 17,750 16,338 13,550 12,580 11,061

Total Job Losers 2,665 2,723 3,946 20,626 18,291 14,272 12,924 10,307 9,135 7,712

On temporary layoff 742 801 1,848 18,063 15,343 10,565 9,225 6,160 4,637 3,205

Permanent 1,289 1,279 1,456 2,000 2,295 2,883 2,877 3,411 3,756 3,684

Temporary job completed 634 644 643 563 653 824 823 736 742 823

As Percentage of Total Unemployed

On temporary layoff 12.6% 13.8% 25.9% 78.3% 73.1% 59.5% 56.5% 45.5% 36.9% 29.0%

Permanent 21.9% 22.1% 20.4% 8.7% 10.9% 16.2% 17.6% 25.2% 29.9% 33.3%

Table 1.1: Unemployment at the Monthly Level

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Levels data are in thousands

A point on percentages and annualized rates

As the economic statistics for 2020 are so unusual, it is important to understand exactly what these

figures mean. This section of the Report is designed to avoid confusion about percentages, percentage

points, and annualized growth rates.

Firstly, let us consider the difference between ten percent and ten percentage points. Imagine

you are advising a Congressional candidate, and the candidate received 45 percent of the votes in the

previous election. A ten percent increase from 45 percent will add 4.5 points, leaving the candidate with

49.5 percent of the vote. That is just short of a majority. In contrast a ten percentage point increase will

see the candidate return 55 percent of the vote, comfortably being elected. These differences can be

more stark depending on the baseline. A 20 percent increase for a candidate who previously received 5

percent of the vote will still only have 6 percent of the vote. It is important to understand the difference

between percent and percentage points.

A related phenomenon occurs when annualizing quarterly growth rates. Imagine a citizen starts the

year with a bank balance of $100, and after three months it has risen to about $102. As the time passed

has only been three months, that $2 increase needs to be adjusted to be interpreted as an annualized

rate. Loosely speaking, if a bank account increases by $2 every three months it will increase by $8

over one year. In other words, when spread over the full twelve months of the year, the 2 percent gain

extrapolates to an annual interest rate of about 8 percent.

Extrapolation assumes that the change is representative of the rest of the year. For interest on a

bank account, this is a reasonable assumption. The interest rate might change slightly from month to

month, but it is unlikely to be a large change.

Extrapolating growth rates is more controversial, and perhaps unrepresentative, in the context of a

shock event like the COVID-19 recession. The total amount of economic activity recorded in Q2 of 2020

was approximately 8.5 percent lower than the same quarter in 2019. Extrapolating that to a full year

concludes the annualized growth rate for that quarter of about -33 percent. This annualized growth rate

indicates how bad the recession would be had it lasted four quarters, not that the economy actually

contracted by 33 percent.




of people unable to find a job in October (11.1 million) is still about twice as high as in January. However, it is also less than half as many as in April. A worrying trend that will be of concern to policymakers is the extent of permanent unemployment. As recently as January, a little over one-in-five (21.9 percent) people on unemployment were listed as long-term or permanently unemployed. That implies unemployment was a short-term issue for the other four-in-five. These numbers have deteriorated. The number of people unemployed has increased, and the share of those listed as permanently unemployed has grown to one-in-three (33.3 percent). Ensuring these people do not fall through the cracks of the system, and that they ultimately successfully re-enter gainful employment, should be a policy priority.

The Opportunity Insights think-tank, a research organization led by economists at

Harvard and Brown University, has made real-time employment indicators available on their Economic Tracker website. While the Federal government typically releases official statistics at a monthly or quarterly frequency, real-time private sector data can provide insight into employment dynamics in the interim.

At the time of writing, real-time employment reports are providing signs of further deterioration. Figure 1.7 plots small business employment, with a particular focus on the Leisure and Hospitality sector. We see that employment within these firms fell by almost one-half in April, but made substantial gains before June. Unfortunately the latest employment outlook, albeit provisional, indicates another reduction in the sector. These are initial indications of further economic contractions, and reinforce the importance of improved consumer sentiment.

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Figure 1.7: Small business employment in the hospitality sector was par�cularly affectedFigure 1.7: Small Business Employment in the Hospitality Sector was Particularly Affected

Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker.




Time-Use

Households change their behavior in response to economic shocks. For example, people reduce

their spending and seek part-time work if they become unemployed. These responses can help insulate

households from the full consequences of a recession.

One feature of Gross Domestic Product is that it measures the value of goods and services sold in

an economy. In other words, it does not measure non-market transactions. For example, a home-cooked

meal certainly delivers benefits to the family that consumes it. However, the time devoted to preparing

and cooking the food is not captured in any measure of GDP. In this respect, GDP can understate the

economic well-being of a country.

As a consequence of the double-whammy of business closures and reduced hours in employment,

people had more free time to spend at home in 2020. Households’ decisions in response to COVID-19

had to include how to spend this additional free time. There are formal measures of how people spend

their day, such as the American Time Use Survey. These surveys are typically released the year after

collection, and will in due course provide greater understanding into how the average American day

evolved over the pandemic.

In the interim, researchers have used less formal methods to gain insight into how people have

spent their time. One popular metric is Google searches. The reasoning behind this measure is that many

households will perform Google searches to learn about new activities. Figure 1.8 below provides one

such figure.

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Figure 1.8: Google search trends indicate shi� to household produc�on (Jan 2020 = 100)Figure 1.8: Google Search Trends Indicate Shift to Household Production (Jan 2020 = 100)

Source: Google Trends.

Continued on Page 11




Investment and Interest Rates

Investment is the second largest component of GDP. Of the projected $20.9 trillion generated by the U.S. economy in 2020, $3.6 trillion (17 percent) will be investment. This is down $185 billion on the prior year.

As with consumption, the relatively modest annual change hides enormous within-year variation. Nonresidential Fixed Investment, which is principally the investment done by businesses rather than consumers, declined by 6.7 percent and 27.2 percent in the first two quarters of the year, before recovering by 20.3 in the third quarter and a projected 3.1 percent in the fourth. The volatility of Residential Investment was even more severe: an immediate rebound of 59.3 percent followed a decline of 35.6 percent in Quarter 2. In total,

Nonresidential Fixed Investment will fall by 4.8 percent for the year as a whole, matched by a 4.8 percent rise in the Residential component. However as Nonresidential Fixed Investment ($2.8 trillion) is more than three times as large as Residential ($874 billion), overall investment will decline.

The investment figures were not uniformly bad. Given the work-from-home phenomenon, investment in Computers increased by 16 percent through 2020. This is reflected in the increase in the market value of Microsoft, currently trading at about $215 per share, up from $150 in December 2019. The largest headline figure in investment decline was in Aircraft. Boeing’s continued regulatory difficulties with the 737 MAX, coupled with the decreased demand for air travel in general, saw aviation investment decline by 48 percent. This should be temporary. Improved conditions

The COVID-19 crisis saw a huge increase in searches for what economists call “home production”,

activities done at home that could be provided in the marketplace. Figure 1.8 plots the trends for three

Google searches related to home production. The base level of 100 is set to the start of the year, so

a level of 200 indicates twice as many searches as compared to January 2020. Searches for “Bread”

more than doubled during March. This supports the anecdotal reports of shortages of flour and yeast in

grocery stores as people switched to home-baking. “Gardening”, too, became much more popular, with

more than four times as many searches in April than in January. Households shifted from consuming food

in restaurants to making their own meals; and spent spare time in the garden. These activities do bring

benefits to households that could be purchased in an open market, but are not generally measured by

GDP if produced by the household themselves.

For parents whose children attend schools that closed, the shift to home-production was acute.

Approximately 55 million K-12 students experienced some form of closure to their school year. In

addition to providing regular childcare, many households were effectively forced into home-schooling.

This is reflecting in the increase in searches for “Online classes”, which more than doubled in late March

compared to earlier in year.

Academics have studied this switch to online learning and found fascinating results. Economists at

Boston University and the RAND Corporation looked at Google Trends data for a variety of home-school

related searches like “online learning”, “math worksheet”, and “Khan Academy”. In addition to noting the

nationwide increase in homeschool-related searches, they look at the differences across richer versus

poorer areas. They note the somewhat unfortunate result that homeschool-related searches increased

twice as much in areas with above-average income and educational attainment areas compared to

below-average income and educational attainments areas. This may widen socioeconomic performance

gaps in education, and be a lasting impact of COVID.

Continued from Page 10




in the travel industry next year, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s November approval of the return of the 737 MAX to service, means aviation investment will sky-rocket by a projected 74 percent next year.

An underappreciated element of investment is inventory management. Historically this is the margin that many firms, which cannot expand production by hiring new works and purchasing new premises overnight, use to respond to a changing economic environment. Nonfarm inventories will decline by $78 billion this year, following growth of $65 billion and $64 billion in the two prior years, and the first decline recorded since 2009. This will provide a 0.6 percentage point drag on real GDP growth.

In total, household finances largely improved in 2020. The savings rate (as a percent of disposable income) will sharply increase, from 7.6 percent to 15.7 percent. The saving rate is not just the highest in recent memory it is more than twice the average over the past decade. Mortgage Debt as a fraction of disposable income declined from 68.2 to 66.4 percent, and Real net worth increased by 7 percent, which is above-average for the past decade. On the less fortunate side of things, 640 thousand people filed for bankruptcy, but that is the lowest figure in over a decade.

The stock market had a positive year overall. Expectations that the COVID-19 recession was a temporary blip meant share prices rose overall. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up over 13

percent on its year-opening level. However, stocks too, had a tumultuous year. Share prices dropped dramatically in February and again in March, before eventually making up lost ground by August. The extent of this volatility rivals famous historical events. Figure 1.9 shows that the stock market volatility associated with the COVID-19 exceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis. While not quite reaching the same extremes, the COVID-19 volatility is in the same ballpark as Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Crash of 1929.

Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts

The Federal deficit measures how much more the United States’ government spends relative to what it collects in taxes and other sources of revenue. Previous Economic Reports to the Governor expressed concern that deficits were large and growing, such as the increased deficit from $587 billion in 2016 to $984 billion last year, even at a time of low unemployment and high growth. As a result of declining revenues and increased spending from stimulus measures, the Federal deficit will more than triple, and exceed $3.1 trillion, in 2020. Although revenues did decline slightly, the increase in deficit is almost exclusively from the expansion in government spending: in just one year, government expenditure will increase from 22 percent to 32 percent of GDP.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, better known as the CARES Act,

Figure 1.9: COVID-era Volatility in Historical Perspective

Source: Baker et al (2020).

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Volatility Lasts Two Weeks (1900-2020)

Great Crash 10-11/1929

Great Depression 3/1933

Black Monday10/1987

Global Financial Crisis 12/2008

Coronavirus Pandemic 3/2020




was enacted on March 27. It was a large stimulus package, with the Congressional Budget Office anticipating it will increase federal deficits by $1.7 trillion, comprising $1 trillion in mandatory outlays; $326 billion in discretionary outlays; and $400 billion in decreases in revenues like tax cuts. The necessity for government intervention to support the economy was widely accepted. The Act passed the Senate unanimously.

Although the Act provides financial assistance that totaled more than $2 trillion, the projected cost was somewhat diminished because not all of the loan guarantees are anticipated to be a cost to the budget. Hospitals and local governments were allocated $250 billion; aid to households amounted to $750 billion, and ultimately more than $1 trillion was allocated to businesses.

The aid to businesses under Title IV of the Act contained two elements. The first was a $500 billion appropriation to the Department of Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). The ESF was initially established in the aftermath of the Great Depression and thus has a long history of assisting stabilization policy. Almost $50 billion of this money was earmarked to assist three specific industries. Chief among them was aviation, with $25 billion to passenger air travel companies like Delta and United, and $4 billion to air cargo companies. Treasury was permitted to make loans and loan guarantees up to a further $17 billion to businesses considered critical to national security. The remaining $454 billion was available to fund emergency lending facilities established by the Federal Reserve.

More prominent than the Title IV provisions were the business supports enacted by Title I. An initial $349 billion was made available for loans to small corporations through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The PPP required businesses certify that the money would be used “to retain workers and maintain payroll or make mortgage payments, lease payments, and utility payments.” As long as companies did not reduce the number of workers, the loan would be forgiven. In this sense, the PPP had elements more resembling a grant rather than a loan.

JP Morgan Chase (JPMC) reported receiving

60,000 applications within the first five minutes of the program opening. The initial money ran out two weeks later, at which stage JPMC had ultimately approved 27,000 applications. The first round of funding ran dry on April 16. This precipitated an eleven-day waiting period, until April 27, when Congress added another $300 billion to the PPP.

A paper by economists at Harvard and the University of Illinois investigated the effects of the PPP. They find limited employment effects but that loans did lead to an increase in a business’ expected survival. The estimates are imprecise, noting a PPP loan increased survival probability by between 14 and 30 percentage points, but still substantial even under the lower part of that estimate.

Given that the PPP ultimately deployed more than $600 billion within four months, it is worth asking how effective the program was at protecting paychecks. A paper by economists at Chicago and MIT found the short- and medium-term employment effects were small compared to the size of the program. Further, the authors “find no evidence that funds flowed to areas that were more adversely affected by the economic effects of the pandemic.” We note that poor targeting was somewhat inevitable given the rushed nature of the policy response. It would therefore be prudent for policymakers to have considerable pre-recession plans in place prior to an economic fallout.

Rather than go to supporting additional hours for workers during the shut-down, a reasonable question is where the money went. The researchers find the PPP allowed firms to ensure liquidity and meet non-payroll spending commitments. Although this implies the immediate effects were not to expand payrolls, it may have prevented companies from shutting down completely. If true, this means firms are more likely to employ workers in the long run.

One silver lining of the recession has been the unexpected boost to sales tax revenue of smaller local governments. Consumers’ shift towards online retail has reduced high-street sales (and therefore sales tax revenues) in major cities, but some of this has been redirected to the smaller rural and suburban counties.




Local sales taxes paid at the register typically become revenue for the county the store is physically located in. An exception to this rule is online commerce. In general, retailers like Amazon or Wayfair remit sales tax revenue to the county the consumer is located in, i.e. the county the good is delivered to, rather than where the website has its headquarters or warehouses, i.e. where the good is purchased from.

The current pandemic has increased online business. Many people who used to travel from neighboring counties to a local downtown hub are now purchasing online. This redirects the sales tax from the downtown city government, to the government the consumer lives in.

Although this is a national phenomenon, it can be well illustrated with examples close to home. Knox County collected $16.9 million in sales taxes in May of 2019. Twelve months later, at the height of the pandemic, this had dropped to $16.1 million. This reflects a decline of about 5 percent. The nearby Anderson County saw revenues grow from $2.7 million to $2.9 million, an increase of nearly 10 percent. Some of this reflects the changes in shopping habits of Anderson County residents. Rather than shopping in downtown Knoxville, local consumers had goods delivered to their door, increasing the revenues of the local government. More dramatic changes are seen in major tourist hubs like Nashville. Davidson County collected $37 milliion in sales taxes in May 2019. Twelve months later, this had dropped to $28.8 million, a decline of 22 percent. Although much of this is a decline from out-of-state visitors, some surely reflects the spending habits of commuters. For example, nearby Maury County saw its sales tax revenue grow from $2.5 million to $2.7 million.

International Trade

The voluntary trade by individuals with buyers and sellers located in other countries is a source of enormous economic benefit to the United States.

It creates expansion opportunities for domestic industry, enhances competition, increases efficiency, and provides greater choice to consumers. In total, the United States imports

$3.1 trillion worth of goods and services from overseas. In turn, businesses and consumers in other countries purchase $2.2 trillion worth of products from U.S. exporters.

The unsteady economic experience was not restricted to the domestic economy. International trade, itself the source of skirmishes and tariff disputes in recent years, saw increased volatility in 2020. The dollar value of goods Americans imported will fall by 7.5 percent in 2020. More dramatically, services imports will fall by 22.6 percent in the year. Combined, this aggregated to total imports reducing by 10.4 percent. As with overall consumption patterns, much of the response was in Quarters 2 and 3. Imports fell by 54 percent as lockdowns started in the early part of the year, only to rebound with a staggering 91 percent increase in the third quarter.

The dollar declined in value relative to other key currencies, making imports of foreign goods relatively more expensive. At the start of the year, $100 could buy 90 euro, rising to a peak of 94 euro just before the initial COVID-19 waves in March. The combination of lockdowns, fiscal stimulus, and expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve served to devalued the local currency. On December 1, approaching year-end, $100 would only purchase consumers about 83 euro, down over 11 percent on its year-high.

The reduction in purchasing power of the dollar, which make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, was not enough to arrest the trade deficit. Other countries who may have purchased American products also experienced recessions and a reduction in demand. Thus while imports will fall by 10.4 percent in 2020, exports will fall even further, by 13.4 percent.

Productivity & Wages

Business’ costs of wages and salaries will grow by 2.8 percent in 2020. Inflation in health insurance markets was more modest, at 1.8 percent, meaning the total costs of employment will grow by 2.6 percent in 2020, below the 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent increases recorded in 2019 and 2018.




The difficult labor market meant large cutbacks in hours and overtime opportunities. The average work week declined to 32.1 hours, the lowest level in a decade, and down from 32.3 hours in 2019. More substantial was the decline in the Manufacturing Workweek, down 0.9 hours (to 40.7 hours) on average. The decline in manufacturing hours is compounded by the decline in manufacturing output per hour, which was down 0.2 percent. However the Capital Stock, which measures the value of machines, raw material, computers and other items that increase the output of workers, increased by 2.2 percent. Chief among these increases was a 10.2 percent boost in physical Computer equipment and a 6.3 percent increase in Software. Industries with

traditionally heavy raw materials like Coal (25.3 percent decrease), Logging (9.3 percent decrease), Oil and Gas (11 percent decrease) declined in output. The only Durable Manufacturing industry to register an increase in numbers employed was Computers and Electronics.

Increased unemployment (up to 8.1 percent) and the average workweek down (by 5.8 percent) means fewer people were working and those who remained employed worked fewer hours. Nonetheless, the total cost of wages and salaries grew by 2.8 percent. This is because the average Hourly Compensation of employees increased, from under $44 to over $46. This is up substantially, from under $40 in 2016 and under $35 at the start of the decade.

We forecast the U.S. economy will see a continued trend of recovery in 2021. Real GDP growth will be strong, with quarterly growth of 2.7 percent in Quarter 1 relative to three months prior, though still lower than the equivalent level recorded in 2020. The strong results will be supplemented by more modest growth rates (of 1.0, 1.9, and 1.9 percent) in the following three quarters. This will generate an average growth rate of 3.1 percent, recovering most of the 3.6 percent lost in 2020. This will generate an average growth rate of 3.1 percent, recovering most of the 3.6 percent lost in 2020. Growth will continue in subsequent years, albeit modestly, with a central forecast of 2.5 percent growth in both 2022 and 2023. As a result, real GDP is projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by early-2022.

Consumption

Personal Consumption will rebound strongly in 2021. Consumption in the United States will exceed $14.9 trillion next year, recording growth of 3.6 percent. Growth will continue (up 2.2 percent) in 2022.

Durable goods will continue their increase in popularity in 2021, growing by 5.2 percent, driven in part by the renewed importance consumers place on activities in the home. The growth in durables will not be restricted to home activities, however. New Automobiles will see growth of 4.8 percent, the first year of growth since 2012, but only after double-digit declines for two years in a row.

Nondurable goods consumption will also grow in 2021, but by a modest 1.0 percent. Following a large 9.3 percent decline in 2020, a 7.3 percent increase in Clothing and Footwear will have consumers looking fashionable as the economy reopens. Off-Premises food, that is, food intended for take-out, will decline in value by 2.5 percent. This reflects a replenished willingness for indoor dining.

Indeed, the largest shift in spending patterns will be away from goods and towards services. Services’ share of consumption expenditure will grow to 68.0 percent in 2021, up from the depressed 67.2 percent in 2020, but still behind the 69.0 percent in 2019. Unsurprisingly this growth will be concentrated in the Food and Recreation sectors. Food services will grow by 12 percent, with Recreation recording even stronger growth of 23 percent.

1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST


1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED

The Labor Market

Unemployment will ease as economic conditions improve. Starting the year above 6.0 percent, the unemployment rate will fall to 5.4 percent by the end of the year. While still quite high by historical comparison, this is a marked improvement on the 14 percent unemployment rate during the peak of the pandemic (2020 Quarter 2). In addition to the reduction in unemployment, people with jobs will see better opportunities for regular and overtime hours. The number of hours in Nonfarm Establishments will increase by 4.0 percent.

A key factor in future economic growth will be the ability to transition people back into the labor force in the post-COVID environment. The pre-recession 2019 population aged 16 and over – which is close to measuring potential workers – was 264 million people. By the end of 2021, the working age population will be 4.1 million higher. However, the increase in people willing and able to work will be much less, with just 200,000 more people in the labor force. Accelerating the Participation Rate from the record-low 61.8 percent of 2020 beyond the forecasted 62.4 percent in 2021 may require an additional policy response.

Investment and Interest Rates

Buoyed by the COVID-19 vaccines and higher consumption expenditures, investment will be much healthier in 2021. Nonresidential Fixed Investment will grow 1.9 percent in the year, arresting the 4.8 percent decline in 2020. Investment in Equipment will increase by 6.4 percent through the year, adding 0.35 percent points to real GDP growth. The recertification of the Boeing 737 MAX will see a record year for investment in transport, with Aircraft investment increasing by 74.4 percent. A decline in investment in Structures (by 5.6 percent) will be offset by a 2.9 percent gain in Residential Investment.

After running nonfarm inventories down by $78 billion in 2020, an improved economic outlook will see businesses add $66 billon to the value of inventories in 2021. Much of this will be in the Retail sector, which will increase back-order

supplies by $40 billion.With unemployment rates discouragingly high

and consumer confidence at depressed levels, the Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates near zero. Expectations are that the Federal Funds Rate will remain at or below 0.1 percent for the next two years.

International Trade

The excess growth of imports (91.1 percent) relative to exports (59.7 percent) in the third quarter expanded the trade deficit, and shaded 3.1 percentage points from real GDP growth. We expect the trade deficit to grow further in 2021.

Exports of goods will increase by 7.5 percent. Particularly strong performers in this category include Aircraft (38.2 percent growth), Computers (19.1 percent growth), and Automobiles (up 24.2 percent). There will be weaker export growth in Industrial Materials (3.1 percent growth) and Foods (6.5 percent decline). Service exports will increase by 3.0 percent in 2021, and 11.2 percent in 2022.

Import growth (8.3 percent) will exceed that for exports in 2021. Much of this will be driven by a 16.3 percent increase in Petroleum, overcoming the 13.8 percent decrease in 2020. While exports of Aircraft and Vehicles are likely to grow, increased consumer demand will ensure that so too will imports of the same. After a 17.1 percent reduction in overseas vehicles imports in 2020, a rebound of 34.6 percent will mean we can expect many foreign automobiles on our roads.

An increase in exports will provide one avenue for stronger economic growth in the coming years. We expect imports to increase by 23.1 percent between 2023 and 2020; but exports to increase by 31.5 percent over the same period. The United States has an opportunity to capitalize on recovering global markets by easing trade restrictions and fostering closer economic ties with traditional allies in Europe and elsewhere.

Government Budget

The baseline forecast assumes that any new stimulus measures will be moderate in scope. This



implies that the fiscal measures passed by Congress in 2020 will largely expire. The CARES Act pumped over $2.0 trillion into the economy, adding 0.28 percentage points to real GDP growth. We will see a resumption of normality in 2021.

The Federal government is projected to collect $3.54 trillion in receipts in 2021, up from $3.42 trillion in this prior year. Outlays will fall dramatically, from $6.55 trillion down to $5.00 trillion, in large part because of a large reduction in Transfer Payments from $4.4 trillion to $3.5 trillion. Nonetheless spending will exceed revenues, as it has every year in recent memory.

As outlays will exceed receipts, the Federal Debt will increase in 2021. Despite the growth in the economy, federal debt is projected to expand from 103.7 percent to 106.9 percent of GDP. Without a consolidated push to rein in the deficit, the debt to GDP ratio will continue to grow through 2023. Expansion of the economy will see it fall slightly beginning in 2024.

Inflation & Prices

The cost of a basket of goods will increase slightly in 2021, averaging 2.3 percent for the year. While there is no substantial difference between core inflation (which excludes Food and

Energy) and the overall basket, the 2.3 percent average masks an acceleration throughout the year. With the after-effects of COVID-19 providing headwinds to aggregate demand, 2021 will see inflation start low in Quarter 1 (1.6 percent) before accelerating to 3.0 percent by Quarter 4.

On the producer side, we can expect similar increases in costs. However, the source of these increases will be different than for consumers. Oil prices are currently at historically low levels. Brent Crude, a benchmark oil price, opened 2020 at a per barrel price above $65. At its low point in April, Brent Crude had dropped below $20. Other oil prices fell further that month. Figure 1.10 plots the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil. The dramatic price drop in early 2020, with the 30-day moving average falling below $20, does not capture the full extent of market decline: for a brief period, the price of a barrel fell into negative territory! The historically low prices are unlikely to continue indefinitely, and the price of domestic crude oil is projected to increase by 16 percent over the year. Although imported oil will provide some cover for producer costs, expectations are that producer prices (commodities) will increase by 5 percent in 2021.


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Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD)Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD)

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The Housing Market

The improvement in the overall economy will passthrough to a healthier housing market. Housing starts will see 1.0 million new single-family homes started, and sales of 5.9 million existing homes. The average prices of these homes will increase. Expenditure on Residential Construction will increase by 2.8 percent in the year. With increased concerns about contagion and reduced need to be downtown, emphasis will be on relatively isolated sites rather than multi-family

structures like apartment buildings: expenditure on Single-Family construction will increase by 5.0 percent, in contrast to a 5.7 contraction in Multi-Family construction.

The price of new houses will likely surpass $423,000, an increase of 7 percent, with the older stock of existing houses selling for $344,000, up 5.4 percent. These gains will be accelerated by the low-cost financing available to consumers: the interest rate on a conventional 30-Year fixed rate mortgages will hover around 3.0 percent, down substantially from the 4.5 percent seen in 2018.


1.3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

The baseline forecast for the year is far from a certainty. While we see it as the most-likely set of outcomes for 2021, we present here two alternative views, both of which are assigned a probability of 25 percent. The first scenario is pessimistic, and represents a forecast where recovery is weak and slow. The second scenario is optimistic, where vaccine rollout is fast and effective and the new Congress passes further fiscal stimulus.

In the pessimistic scenario, continued spread of COVID-19 leads to surging number of cases, hospitals approaching the limits of their capacity, and thousands of additional deaths. This causes a drop in consumer sentiment and a reluctance to support indoor dining and other non-essential sectors of the economy. With weaker aggregate demand, the benefits to reopening and loosening restrictions on businesses are dampened.

In this scenario growth at the end of 2020 is smaller, and the economy risks slipping into a minor recession in January. Weak consumption and investment figures means real GDP growth is a lethargic 1.6 percent in 2021, recovering less than half of the losses in 2020. Businesses continue to run down inventories rather than investing, and productivity declines.

The ability of the Federal Reserve to react to the deteriorating economic conditions is limited,

as interest rates already hover near zero. Continued political polarization is assumed in the pessimistic scenario, and state and local governments are forced into further cut-backs. Unemployment stays stubbornly high, at 6.4 percent, and does not fall below 5.0 percent until 2024.

In the optimistic scenario, the FDA facilitates immediate rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Widespread uptake arrests the number of cases, which declines in early 2021, improving consumer sentiment and willingness to support re-opening. Further, Congress boosts demand with an additional $400 billion to $500 billion in stimulus.

In this scenario, strong growth occurs immediately, with a 5.7 percent boost in real GDP in Quarter 1, and 5.2 percent growth for the 2021 year as a whole. Buoyant consumer sentiment increases the velocity of spending, with consumption increasing 5.3 percent in Quarter 1, and 5.2 percent over the whole year.

Improved economic conditions encourages business leaders, as firms expand investment by 4.8 percent and the S&P500 rises by 14.1 percent. Faster inflation, at 2.1 percent in 2021 and 2.3 percent in 2022, means that the Federal Reserve will begin increasing interest rates in late 2023 or early 2024. Unemployment drops to 4.9 percent in 2021, and below 4.0 percent in 2023.



1.4. REFERENCES

Bacher-Hicks, A., Goodman, J. and Mulhern, C., (2020). Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time (No. w27555). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Baker, S.R., Farrokhnia, R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. & Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Volume 10, Number 4, Pages 834—862.

Baker, S.R., Farrokhnia, R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments (No. w27097). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Bartik, A.W., Cullen, Z.B., Glaeser, E.L., Luca, M., Stanton, C.T. & Sunderam, A., (2020). The targeting and impact of Paycheck Protection Program loans to small businesses (No. w27623). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Chetty R., Friedman, J., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & the Opportunity Insights Team (2020). The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data. Available at www.opportunityinsights.org and www.tracktherecovery.org.

Goolsbee, A. & Syverson, C. (2020). Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020 (No. w27432) National Bureau of Economic Research.

Granja, J., Makridis, C., Yannelis, C. & Zwick, E. (2020). Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target? (No. w27095). National Bureau of Economic Research.

NBC News, (2020). Small-business loan program ran out of money within minutes, some banks say. Available from https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/small-business-loan-program-ran-out-money-within-minutes-some-n1187051. Accessed on 1 December 2020.

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook


CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

2.1. INTRODUCTION

In this Chapter —2.1. Introduction2.2. The Current Economic

Environment The Labor Market Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic Income, Earnings, and Taxable Sales International Trade and Tennessee

2.3. Short-Term Outlook2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and

forest Industries and Rural Economy

Agriculture and Primary Forestry - Introduction - Agricultural Land Use and Farm Size - Tennessee’s Crops and Livestock - Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries - U.S. and Tennessee Agricultural Trade Outlook - Financial Indicators for Tennessee Farming Industries - Rural Infrastructure - Primary Forestry in Tennessee

Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee - Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and Employees - Economic Impacts From the Agri-forestry Industrial

Complex

Rural Economies and Well-Being

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate

- Food and Fiber Industry Impacts - The Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry and the

Paycheck Protection Program - The Tennessee Green Industry and the Paycheck

Protection Program - Tennessee Household Food Sufficiency During the

Pandemic

Summary

References

The year 2020 has been filled with defining moments and historic events. Mass civil rights protests swept the nation in early-summer, and a presidential election with the largest voter turnout in U.S. history occurred over the fall. However, on a macro level, the year 2020 will largely be defined by the outbreak of COVID-19. The pandemic has led to mass sickness and death across the state, nation and world, and has altered the way we live, the way businesses operate, the way students learn and workers work, and the way consumers spend their money.

At the onset of the pandemic, many states, including Tennessee, issued stay-at-home orders and social distancing mandates, shutting down

all non-essential activities in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. As a result, school years were cancelled or shifted to online instruction, office workers began working remotely, businesses closed, and large public events were cancelled. Lockdowns coupled with fear of contracting the virus resulted in a rapid decline in economic activity. As a result, the nation’s longest economic expansion on record ended in February 2020, and the economy entered into its 33rd recession since the 1850s. The current recession, triggered by the pandemic, is unique in its breadth, depth, and rapidity, as the state’s labor market turned sideways in a matter of weeks. From March to April, nearly 400 thousand Tennesseans lost their

The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2


2.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED

jobs and the unemployment rate went from a record low 3.3 percent to a record high of 15.5 percent in a one-month period. The economic fallout would have likely been worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which provided enhanced unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, loans, and stimulus checks to help keep (some) households afloat and struggling businesses from failing. More information on federal stimulus is provided in Section 4.7 of Chapter 4.

Following large economic contractions in the spring, economic data started to shore up in May as states reopened. In May and June combined, 208.1 thousand jobs were added back to Tennessee payrolls and the unemployment rate fell to 9.6 percent in June. April seems to have been the trough of the recession, as the state has seen positive economic growth in each month since. Federal assistance coupled with the limited ability for consumers to spend on travel or in-person services has also led to a large increase in consumer purchases of taxable goods, which has helped support state tax revenues and the economic recovery. However, COVID-19 caseloads have surged in recent months and the remaining provisions of the CARES Act are set to expire (as of this writing), leaving the recovery on rocky footing.

High frequency data on restaurant visits from Open Table show that in late-May, open restaurants in Tennessee were only seating about a third of the number of diners as compared to the year prior, but by late-October, this number reached as high as 85 percent.1 However, with the massive surge in recent caseloads, restaurant visits have begun to fall again, and were roughly 50 percent lower than the same time last year as of mid-November. Tennessee’s pace of job growth has also slowed in recent months, as the state has averaged roughly 20 thousand jobs added per month from August to October (compared to over 100 thousand in both May and June), and there are still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were prior to the pandemic.

1 https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry2 http://core19.utk.edu/tn-pulse-wave-6

Beginning in May, the University of Tennessee’s Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy has conducted bi-weekly statewide surveys in order to track public opinion on the pandemic and the state’s reopening plans. In the September wave, 17.0 percent of survey participants said that they would not feel comfortable eating at a dine-in restaurant until a vaccine was available and 21.0 percent would not partake until new caseloads steadily declined. Similarly, 24.0 percent would not attend a large public event, and 20.0 percent would not go to a movie theater, bowling alley, or attend other similar recreational activities until a vaccine were available.2 These responses suggest that a sizeable portion of the state population will not resume pre-pandemic spending patterns until a vaccine is available. It is therefore likely that we will see muted economic growth in the near term.

With that in mind, the short-term outlook calls for positive economic growth in the near term as we dig out of the current recession, but the recovery may be one of fits and starts as we continue to grapple with the virus. In the short term, economic activity will largely depend on the trajectory of the virus, accompanying government responses (to control the virus or provide fiscal support), the development and deployment of effective treatments and/or vaccines, as well as the behavior of individuals across the state, nation, and world. The Tennessee forecast assumes that there will not be new rounds of fiscal stimulus but that a vaccine will be made widely available in the U.S. by the middle of 2021, which will provide a boost to the economic recovery. Additional fiscal stimulus is certainly possible but the timing and size are so uncertain that it would be difficult to incorporate their effects into the short-term forecast.

The outlook calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) to contract by 3.5 percent in 2020 followed by stronger positive growth of 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022 as the economy recovers from the pandemic’s negative shocks. Expectations




are that real GDP in Tennessee will reach pre-pandemic peak levels (from 2019) by the end of 2022. Nonfarm jobs will also continue to recover in 2021, with moderate growth in the first half of the year as the virus continues to shape the recovery, followed by stronger growth in the third and fourth quarter as (hopefully) successful vaccines are distributed throughout the country. As a result, nonfarm jobs will grow by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022, but will not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2023. While total nonfarm payrolls will fully recover by 2023, some sub sectors will show scarring well past then, as the recovery is not evenly distributed. Employment in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector, one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, will not fully recover until 2024 as restaurants and smaller entertainment venues struggle to stay in business, and restrictions on large events keep revenues down. Employment in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout the decade, due to depressed global demand, rising levels of uncertainty, and a continued reliance on automation. Even within the manufacturing sector, the recovery has been uneven, as factories that provide popular consumer goods have seen a surge in demand, while those relying on business-to-business sales continue to struggle. The recovery has also been unequal across the wage distribution. Among high wage workers, especially those with the ability to telework, the labor market has largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels, whereas employment among lower and middle wage workers are still depressed (see Section 2.2).

The state unemployment rate is expected to average 7.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole, before quickly trending down to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022 as the labor market recovers. The national unemployment rate will follow a similar trajectory. Nominal personal income is projected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2020, due to a boom in federal transfer payments (e.g. unemployment insurance and stimulus checks) but will slow to 1.1 percent in 2021 as transfer payments normalize before growing at a more stable rate of 4.6 percent in 2022. For the fiscal year, nominal personal income

is expected to rise by 1.8 percent in FY 2020/21 and 3.3 percent in FY 2021/22.

Nominal taxable sales will grow by a subdued 1.7 percent in 2020, but will then see much stronger rates of growth in 2021 and 2022, as sales will advance by 4.7 percent and 4.4 percent respectively. Relatively strong growth in 2021 will be driven by a recovery in sales at eating and drinking places, and hotels and motels, which were severely depressed in 2020, as well as the collection of sales and use taxes on online purchases. Tennessee began taxing online retailers in July 2019 if their sales to Tennessee consumers exceeded $500,000 in the previous year. This helped to keep taxable sales growth out of negative territory in 2020. As of October 2020, this sales threshold was reduced from $500,000 to $100,000, which should broaden the base of online sales tax collections, and provide a boost to taxable sales in 2021. For the fiscal year, nominal taxable sales will grow by 5.3 percent in FY 2020/21 (as compared to the weakened sales of FY 2019/20), and 3.1 percent in FY 2021/22.

There are certainly a number of downside risks, which could lead to slower economic growth in the near term. The most looming of course is the pandemic. As virus caseloads are surging, some states have started to re-impose restrictions and consumers may grow even more cautious and reduce spending. Enhanced UI benefits through the CARES Act and a temporary eviction moratorium for renters (through a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order) are also set to expire, and with no additional fiscal stimulus to fall back on (as of this writing), a second economic contraction, or “double-dip recession,” is certainly possible. However, we are better equipped now than we were in the spring. Consumers have learned how to better navigate the pandemic and any restrictions (or are ignoring safety protocols), and many businesses have already adopted new practices to account for this new reality (e.g. shifting to curbside pickup, expanding outdoor seating at restaurants, and creating or improving online ordering systems) which could provide a



2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

buffer to a second economic shock. The Labor Market

In 2019, labor markets in both the state and nation continued to tighten. In Tennessee, nonfarm employment grew by 1.9 percent, representing a net addition of over 59 thousand jobs between 2018 and 2019. Job growth in Tennessee outpaced national job growth of 1.4 percent in 2019. Tennessee’s unemployment rate sat at 3.5 percent or less for the 2019 year as a whole, and consistently rested below the national unemployment rate. Things of course took a turn for the worse in the spring of 2020 with the onset and rapid spread of COVID-19, which led to the temporary closing of many businesses and schools and drastically altered the way we live, work, and spend. As a result, many businesses laid off or furloughed workers, and the state’s unemployment rate shot up to 15.5 percent in April, representing an unprecedented 12.2 percentage point increase from the month prior. This was by far the largest one-month change in unemployment, and is one of the many examples of the scale, scope, and swiftness of the economic destruction caused by the pandemic.

Between March and April, more than 392 thousand Tennesseans had lost their jobs, representing a 12.5 percent reduction in nonfarm employment over that one-month span. This was only slightly better than the 13.8 percent drop in employment felt nationwide. For perspective, Table 2.1 shows job losses for all southeastern states between March and April. Among the 12 southeastern states, 10 saw employment losses of 10 percent or more, including Florida which lost more than 1.0 million jobs (down 12.1 percent) and North Carolina, where employment levels fell by 571.5 thousand (down 12.5 percent).

At the onset of the pandemic, job losses were felt in every Tennessee sector, but leisure and hospitality was hit the hardest, by a wide margin (see Figure 2.1). Nearly half of the initial job losses came from the leisure and hospitality sector, which shed 159.6 thousand workers as restaurants and arts venues closed their doors, the demand for travel halted, and large entertainment events were cancelled. The manufacturing sector was also

hit particularly hard, due to supply chain issues and weak global demand, and manufacturing employment fell by 17.7 percent between March and April, representing a loss of more than 60 thousand jobs. Professional business services was the only other sector to see a double digit contraction in employment growth, as its labor force shrunk by 10.5 percent, representing a reduction of 44.7 thousand workers. In contrast, fewer jobs were lost in the financial activities, construction, government, and information sectors during that first month.

Since April, most sectors of the state economy have seen some job growth, but the financial activities sector is the only to have fully recovered to the pre-pandemic peak levels seen in February. Figure 2.2 shows the net change in Tennessee jobs by sector during the height of the pandemic recession (February through April) as well as the ensuing months (April through October). The figure shows that the three largest service sectors (professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality) all saw significant job losses in the spring. All three of these sectors have seen job growth since April, but none are back to their pre-pandemic peak levels. Similarly, the manufacturing sector saw a reduction of 65.8 thousand jobs in the spring and has only added 40.8 thousand back since then,

Table 2.1: Spring Job Losses Across the Southeast


Employment (in thousands)

Mar-20 Apr-20 Job losses Growth

West Virginia 709.5 617.5 -92.0 -13.0%

Arkansas 1,272.0 1,162.8 -109.2 -8.6%

Mississippi 1,154.7 1,040.8 -113.9 -9.9%

Alabama 2,076.6 1,865.8 -210.8 -10.2%

Louisiana 1,960.7 1,722.4 -238.3 -12.2%

South Carolina 2,197.7 1,921.8 -275.9 -12.6%

Kentucky 1,926.9 1,620.7 -306.2 -15.9%

Tennessee 3,147.8 2,755.0 -392.8 -12.5%

Virginia 4,067.4 3,661.8 -405.6 -10.0%

Georgia 4,618.6 4,120.5 -498.1 -10.8%

North Carolina 4,567.7 3,996.2 -571.5 -12.5%

Florida 8,976.3 7,893.5 -1,082.8 -12.1%

United States 151,090.0 130,303.0 -20,787.0 -13.8%



2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.1: In April, Job Losses were Seen Across All Broad Sectors of the Tennessee Economy, but Leisure and Hospitality was Hit the Hardest


Figure 2.2: Employment Gains in Most Tennessee Sectors Have Yet to Make up for the Spring Losses


February to April April to October




while employment levels in trade, transportation, and utilities fell by 44.9 thousand in the spring, and only 30.2 thousand workers have been added since.

Unemployment rates in Tennessee and across the nation haven been on a downward trend for much of the decade, with the Tennessee rate consistently resting below 4.0 percent since mid-2017 and the U.S. rate falling below the 4 percent mark in mid-2018. However, the onset of the pandemic led to a rapid spike in unemployment rates across the country. Figure 2.3 presents unemployment rate trends for the state, the nation, and the southeast region. Tennessee’s unemployment rate shot up by an unprecedented 12.2 percentage points in a one month span, as the state went from matching its lowest unemployment rate in the history of the data (dating back to 1976), at 3.3 percent in March, to its highest ever on record, 15.5 percent in April. A similar pattern was seen for the nation as a whole, as the U.S. rate jumped up to 14.7 percent in April. These April unemployment rates were roughly 50 percent higher than their peak rates during the Great Recession. Since April, unemployment rates have largely drifted downwards as state economies have reopened. As of October,

Tennessee’s unemployment rate sits at 7.4 percent and the national rate is 6.9 percent. Tennessee’s 7.4 percent rate represents a 0.9 percentage point uptick compared to the 6.5 percent rate from a month prior. This increase was largely due to growth in the state’s labor force (i.e. the number of people employed plus the number of people unemployed but actively looking for work), as more people are now searching for work than in the month prior. However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases could hamper the current economic momentum.

While Tennessee’s labor market has made up ground since the lows of April, the recovery, thus far, has not been uniformly distributed. Data from Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker show that at the end of September employment rates among those in Tennessee’s top wage quartile (greater than $60,000 per year) were only 1.1 percent below their January 2020 levels, and employment among middle wage workers ($27,000 to $60,000 per year) was 3.9 percent lower. But among low wage workers (less than $27,000 per year) employment levels were still a worryingly 17 percent lower than in January 2020 (see Figure 2.4). Thus, while

Figure 2.3: Unemployment Rates Spiked in April, but Have Drifted Downward Since.

Southeast: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.




the job market for high wage workers has nearly recovered, employment levels among low wage workers is still severely depressed.

Furthermore, while the state’s unemployment rate has trended downward since April, county-level data show that unemployment rates remain stubbornly high in parts of the state. Figure 2.5 reports the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for all Tennessee counties for the month of September. Since these data are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable with the state or national unemployment rates, but still provide useful information as to how each Tennessee county has fared during pandemic. In September, Shelby County had the highest unemployment rate, at 9.9 percent, followed by Haywood (8.6 percent), and Davidson and Lauderdale, each at 7.5 percent. We are generally used to seeing the larger metro areas, especially Davidson County, as the economic drivers of the state. However, this pandemic has hit cities hard, especially those reliant on tourism and large entertainment events, such as

Nashville. Similarly, unemployment in Sevier County, which relies heavily on the leisure and hospitality industry, is still somewhat elevated at 6.1 percent. Conversely, the unemployment rate in Williamson County has nearly recovered, falling to 3.6 percent in September (as compared to 10.5 percent in April), and unemployment in Knox County is down to 4.6 percent. Unlike in previous recessions, unemployment rates in some of the smaller more rural counties is also declining at a faster pace than in some of the larger counties. Cities and counties with higher population densities have certainly been more vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19, but the fall and winter months have been met with recent surges in new cases, and spikes in new cases have been seen in rural and metropolitan counties alike, which could certainly dampen the economic recovery going forward.

In Chapter 4, we provide an even more in-depth look into how the pandemic has shaped the labor market, including a deep dive into weekly UI claims as well as national unemployment rate

Figure 2.4: Employment Among High and Middle Wage Workers in Tennessee are Nearly Back to Pre-Pandemic (January 2020) Levels, While Employment Among Low Wage Workers is Still Severely Depressed

Source: Opportunity Insights, https://tracktherecovery.org/Note: Low wage is less than $27k. Middle wage is between $27K and $60K. High wage is above $60K.




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Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic

During the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau began releasing new high frequency data on business formation activity at the state, regional, and national levels. This new data series provides information on the number of new business applications received each week, and offers good insight into how the pandemic has affected business formations throughout the year. While a business application does not constitute the start of a new business, it is a good proxy for new business formations and entrepreneurial activity, as it measures the intent to start a new business.

Figure 2.6reportsyear-over-yeargrowthinnewbusinessapplicationsstartingwiththefirstweekof2020throughtheweekendingonOctober24,2020,forTennessee,thesouthregion,andthenationasawhole.Thesouthregion,asdefinedbytheU.S.CensusBureauismuchlargerthanthetypical12southeasternstatesthatwe are accustomed to, and includes Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma, and Washington D.C. In the U.S., the number of new business applications fell sharply in the third week of March and remained depressed through the last week of April. In each week from mid-March to the end of April, business applicationsfellby10percentormoreascomparedtothesameweekin2019,andfellbymorethan33.0percentinboththelastweekofMarchandthefirstweekofApril.AsimilarpatternplayedoutinTennesseeandthesouthregion as a whole, as the onset of the pandemic led to large declines in business applications throughout the country. Interestingly however, the number of new business applications soared in the summer months, growing bynearly200percentinTennesseeduringthefirstweekofJuly(comparedtothesametimelastyear),andbymorethan100percentineachweekthereafterthroughtheendofJuly.Asimilar,butslightlymoretemperedpatternheldforthesouth(up147.6percent)andthenationasawhole(up127.4percent)duringthatfirstweekofJuly.Growthinnewbusinessapplicationshasslowlyfallensincethesummerboom,butstillremainswellabovehistoricalaveragesthroughtheendofOctober.Forexample,intheU.S.,businessapplicationsgrewby37.9percentinthefourthweekofOctober,whereasfrom2006to2019averagegrowthduringthatweekwasonly3.5percent.Thepandemichascertainlyledtonewbusinessopportunitiesforsome(e.g.enhancedcleaningservices,maskmaking,andfooddeliverytonameafew),andmanypeoplewholosttheirjobsinthespringmayhavestarted their own businesses to try to make ends meet or to take advantage of evolving opportunities.

Figure 2.6: Growth in Weekly Business Applications

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics,




trends across various population subgroups.Income, Earnings, and Taxable Sales

Average earnings in Tennessee have been on the rise in recent years. Figure 2.7 reports monthly data on average hourly wages for all private employees in the state. In 2016, average earnings in Tennessee rested at $21.60 per hour, but by 2019, they had risen above $24.00 per hour. For those working a full time job, this increase equates to roughly $5,000 more per year in earnings. There was also a large spike in hourly earnings in April of 2020, at the onset of the pandemic. Unfortunately, this was driven by a large swath of job losses among workers receiving below average wages. For example, those working in leisure and hospitality and retail trade. This is one example of how the pandemic has had inequitable adverse economic effects, as those with a (likely) smaller financial cushion were more likely to lose their jobs during the pandemic.

Thankfully however, per capita income, which is unaffected by average wages, also grew in the second quarter of 2020. Figure 2.8 shows quarterly per capita income for the first two

quarters of 2020 for the U.S. as well as the 12 southeastern states. In all states, per capita income levels grew, with annualized growth rates ranging from 14.8 percent in Tennessee to an astounding 71.1 percent in West Virginia. These large gains were solely driven by federal transfer payments (i.e. enhanced UI benefits and stimulus checks), which expanded by an annualized rate of 463.0 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter of 2020 (as compared to the previous quarter). As a result, per capita income levels will likely fall in the near future as federal transfer payments normalize. A similar pattern can be seen for nominal personal income for Tennessee as a whole, which rose by 15.8 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Again, this outsized increase is solely due to the rise in federal transfer payments. All other components of personal income growth shrunk in the second quarter, including a 27.8 percent drop in total wages and salaries, as a large swath of the state population lost their jobs (permanently or temporarily) in the second quarter.

Figure 2.8 also shows that per capita income levels across most of the southeast are well below the national average. Virginia, with a per capita income

Figure 2.7: Average Hourly Earnings in Tennessee Have Risen in Recent Years

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.




Figure 2.8: Per Capita Income Grew Across the Southeast Region in the Second Quarter of 2020

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

level of $63,674, is the only southeastern state with an average income level above the national average of $61,842. By comparison, the regional average income level was $51,141 in the second quarter, a full $10,000 lower than the national average. Tennessee’s average income level was slightly above the regional average, at $51,232 and trailed behind Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. This marks the first time since 2015 that Louisiana has had higher per capita income than Tennessee.

Prior to the pandemic, taxable sales in Tennessee showed very strong growth, expanding by 6.8 percent in 2018 and 6.0 percent (or nearly $8.0 billion) in 2019. Most sectors saw strong sales growth in 2019, with the exception of food stores, which only grew by 3.3 percent, and transportation and communications, where sales remained relatively flat between 2018 and 2019.

Many of the long-standing taxable sales trends were turned upside down in 2020 as the onset of the pandemic led to a collapse in the demand for in-person services and a near halt in travel. As a result, sales in eating and drinking places fell by more than 40 percent in both the first and second quarter of 2020, representing a $900 million reduction in sales between the second quarter of 2020 and the same quarter last year. Many eating and

drinking places pivoted to a business model focused on online ordering, take-out, and delivery, which helped keep sales from plummeting further, and some restaurants/bars have been able to weather the storm more than others, but as a whole, this sector has been reeling during the pandemic. Sales rebounded to some degree in the third quarter of 2020 as outdoor dining became more feasible in the summer months, and some restaurants reopened their indoor dining rooms. However, the recent surge of new COVID-19 cases in the fall and winter could certainly slow the recovery. Hotels and motels saw an even more dramatic decline in sales, as taxable sales fell by 43.3 percent in the first quarter and 96.7 percent in the second quarter, due to the near halt in travel among vacationers and businesspeople alike. Hotel and motel sales saw a strong recovery in the third quarter, as sales nearly doubled between the second and third quarter, but third quarter sales are still well below their pre-pandemic levels. Purchases from manufacturers also fell in the second quarter of 2020 due to pandemic-related supply chain issues coupled with the temporary closing of businesses across the state and nation during the spring months. However, manufacturing sales fully recovered to their pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter. While




manufacturing sales, as a whole, have bounced back, the recovery has been uneven. Factories selling popular consumer goods (e.g. exercise equipment and recreational vehicles, to name a few) are having trouble keeping up with elevated demand while those who sell products to other companies (i.e. business to business sales) are still struggling.

While the leisure and hospitality industry and in-person services have taken a big pandemic-related hit, purchases of goods has shown robust growth through most of 2020 as consumers have shifted much of their buying towards the goods market. Purchases from food stores rose rapidly over the first half of 2020, as the demand for groceries skyrocketed while restaurants and bars remained closed and stay at home orders were in effect. Strong sales growth was also driven by grocery price increases, as the price of many staples such as coffee, eggs, and chicken (to name a few) rose due to rising demand coupled with supply chain disruptions.

Taxable sales at liquor stores also rose rapidly over the first half of 2020 as more people were buying alcohol for at-home consumption. Purchases of miscellaneous durable goods, which includes building materials and hardware stores, saw strong growth during the second and third quarter of 2020. As individuals realized they would be spending much more time at home over the spring and summer months they took up more home improvement projects to make their combined living/work spaces more comfortable. The summer months also brought strong sales growth to the other retail and service category, which includes sporting goods stores and electronic stores. Sporting goods sales rose as individuals purchased exercise equipment and found ways to enjoy outdoor hobbies, while electronic sales grew as those working from home made purchases to better equip their home offices and parents and school districts purchased laptops and chrome-books for the upcoming virtual school year.

Despite the statewide stay at home order, which lasted for the entire month of April, total taxable sales in Tennessee only fell by 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, as compared to

the quarter prior. Consumer spending during this period was buoyed to some extent by the enhanced UI benefits and stimulus checks provided through the CARES Act. Furthermore, the pandemic has led to a dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns. Through the first half of 2020, Tennesseans spent more of their money on taxable goods and less on in-person services, many of which are not taxable in the state. This helped to keep taxable sales from falling too sharply in the spring. Finally, online purchases have become even more popular during the pandemic, and Tennessee recently expanded their collections of online sales tax collections, which has helped keep tax revenues from slipping too far. These trends are further discussed in Section 4.4 of Chapter 4.

In the third quarter, taxable sales accelerated by 29.6 percent compared to the moderately depressed collections from the second quarter. As the state started to reopen, total taxable sales recovered rapidly in the third quarter of 2020. However, this recovery was largely driven by the purchase of goods. Sales of the few taxable services in the state, such as at hotels and motels, eating and drinking places, and transportation and communications, are still well below their pre-pandemic levels from the fourth quarter of 2019.

International Trade and Tennessee

The Tennessee economy has a strong reliance on the international sector through foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade. Foreign direct investment in Tennessee refers to foreign investment/ownership of Tennessee businesses. Figure 2.9 shows the top-10 countries with regards to Tennessee FDI. In 2019, Japan had the highest FDI impact in Tennessee, by a wide margin, as Japanese owned companies, such as Nissan and Yamaha, employed over 40,000 Tennessee workers, and operated 189 establishments throughout the state. In second place was Germany (with companies such as Volkswagen and Wacker), with 20,100 jobs and 130 firms, followed by France (10,659 jobs and 87 firms) and the United Kingdom (10,086 jobs and 118 firms). In 2019, there were over 1,000 foreign-




based businesses with investments or operations in Tennessee, leading to the employment of over 140 thousand Tennesseans (120 thousand of which came from the 10 countries listed in Figure 2.9).3 This represented roughly 4.5 percent of total nonfarm employment in Tennessee in 2019.

The flow of goods and services through international trade is another important driver of the Tennessee economy. In 2019, Tennessee exported more than $31.0 billion worth of merchandise to other countries. Figure 2.10 shows the top-5 products exported from Tennessee. The state’s largest export product was transportation equipment, which accounted for nearly $6.0 billion in international sales in 2019. Chemical products was ranked second, at $4.8 billion, followed by computer and electronic products, at $4.5 billion.

Tennessee exports declined sharply in 2020 as countries across the globe dealt with the pandemic. Through the first nine months of 2020, Tennessee had only exported $20.3 billion worth of merchandise to markets abroad, representing a dramatic 34.7 percent drop compared to the same period last year (see Figure 2.11). Tennessee’s

3 https://tnecd.com/advantages/international/

transportation equipment market was hit particularly hard, where exports fell by $1.6 billion or 34.9 percent through the first nine months of 2020 (as compared to the same period in 2019).

Figure 2.12 reports year-to-date exports (January through September) for Tennessee’s five largest export markets: Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, and the Netherlands. Canada and Mexico are Tennessee’s two largest international markets, and in 2019 these two countries accounted for 36.1 percent of all Tennessee exports. However, through the first half of 2020, both countries dramatically reduced their purchases of Tennessee goods. Compared to the first half of 2019, Canada reduced purchases by 40.9 percent, representing a $2.9 billion decline. This drop was felt across all Tennessee industries, but was largest in the transportation equipment and machinery categories. In Mexico, purchases fell by 44.8 percent, representing a $1.9 billion drop, with the largest declines coming from the machinery, chemicals, and transportation equipment categories. In contrast, exports to China, Tennessee’s third largest market, remained

Figure 2.9: Tennessee Employment in Foreign Owned Companies

Source: Tennessee Department of Economic & Community Development.Note: Number of establishments from each country are reported in parenthesis.




Figure 2.11: Tennessee Exports Tumbled Through First Nine Months of 2020

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.

Figure 2.10: Tennessee’s Top-5 Exports in 2019





Figure 2.12: Tennessee Exports were Hit Hardest in its Two Largest Markets: Canada and Mexico


relatively flat. The Tennessee economy is projected to

contract by 3.5 percent in 2020 due the pandemic and pandemic-related responses. Economic losses would have likely been far worse had it not been for the Federal government’s quick and aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, which helped prop up (some) businesses and households during the pandemic. Expectations are that the trough of the recession occurred in April of 2020 and that the state economy will see positive growth going forward as we dig out of the low point from the spring. As a result, Tennessee real GDP will advance by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Tennessee real GDP is projected to surpass its pre-pandemic peak level by the end of 2022. However, the current surge in daily COVID-19 cases puts the economic recovery on shaky footing.

A summary of the short-term outlook is provided in Table 2.2. Tennessee nonfarm jobs are projected to fall by 3.7 percent in 2020, representing a net loss of 116 thousand workers between 2019 and 2020. These losses all occurred in the second quarter of 2020, as the state shed nearly 400 thousand workers between March and April. The state has seen positive job growth since then, as nonfarm employment grew by 18.8 percent in the third quarter and is projected to advance by 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, but nonfarm employment levels are projected to remain below the pre-pandemic peak until the first quarter of 2023. The nonfarm employment outlook is presented in Figure 2.13 and a more detailed sectoral breakdown of the short-term employment outlook is provided in Table 2.3. Second quarter job losses in Tennessee were

2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK



Table 2.2: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally AdjustedHistory Forecast Data Annual

2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2019 2020 2021 2022U.S. GDP (BIL2012$) SAAR… 17302.5 18584.0 18755.5 18880.5 18928.3 19015.4 19105.3 19258.4 19413.4 19539.9 19644.9 19752.7 19091.7 18413.2 18982.4 19464.1 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -31.38 33.08 3.74 2.69 1.02 1.85 1.90 3.24 3.26 2.63 2.17 2.21 2.16 -3.55 3.09 2.54 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -9.03 -2.91 -2.59 -0.69 9.40 2.32 1.87 2.00 2.56 2.76 2.82 2.57 2.16 -3.55 3.09 2.54U.S. GDP (BIL$) SAAR…….... 19520.1 21157.6 21458.2 21695.7 21871.4 22079.1 22298.2 22584.7 22878.6 23143.0 23388.5 23640.5 21433.2 20924.3 21986.1 22998.7 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -32.82 38.02 5.80 4.50 3.28 3.85 4.03 5.24 5.31 4.70 4.31 4.38 3.98 -2.37 5.07 4.61 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.48 -1.78 -1.33 0.62 12.05 4.36 3.92 4.10 4.60 4.82 4.89 4.68 3.98 -2.37 5.07 4.61TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR……............ 319219 310707 309335 306599 307059 308915 310757 313052 315462 317703 319871 322325 302654 311438 308333 316522

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 17.67 -10.25 -1.75 -3.49 0.60 2.44 2.41 2.99 3.11 2.87 2.76 3.10 2.48 2.90 -1.00 2.66 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 5.60 2.61 1.84 0.03 -3.81 -0.58 0.46 2.10 2.74 2.84 2.93 2.96 2.48 2.90 -1.00 2.66U.S. PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR…………...... 18469 17817 17263 17092 17091 17101 17094 17195 17287 17363 17436 17556 16888 17660 17095 17320

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 36.37 -13.39 -11.87 -3.91 -0.02 0.24 -0.16 2.38 2.14 1.79 1.69 2.78 2.40 4.58 -3.20 1.32 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 9.66 5.49 1.71 0.00 -7.46 -4.02 -0.98 0.60 1.14 1.53 2.00 2.10 2.40 4.58 -3.20 1.32TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR………………...... 352529 346641 346490 345393 347739 351737 355629 359897 364208 368238 372358 376628 332473 346376 350125 366175

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 15.79 -6.52 -0.17 -1.26 2.74 4.68 4.50 4.89 4.88 4.50 4.55 4.67 4.00 4.18 1.08 4.58 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 6.28 3.97 3.20 1.63 -1.36 1.47 2.64 4.20 4.74 4.69 4.70 4.65 4.00 4.18 1.08 4.58U.S. PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR............................ 20397 19856 19319 19196 19305 19425 19532 19751 19961 20154 20344 20585 18552 19631 19364 20052

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... 34.19 -10.19 -10.39 -2.51 2.28 2.51 2.23 4.55 4.33 3.91 3.84 4.81 3.92 5.82 -1.36 3.55 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.... 10.37 6.77 2.97 1.29 -5.35 -2.17 1.11 2.89 3.40 3.75 4.16 4.22 3.92 5.82 -1.36 3.55TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS).................................. 2858.7 2984.2 3033.0 3045.5 3059.7 3083.5 3106.8 3118.4 3128.7 3139.2 3148.8 3159.4 3123.0 3007.0 3073.9 3133.8

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR....... -32.35 18.76 6.70 1.67 1.88 3.15 3.05 1.50 1.33 1.34 1.23 1.35 1.95 -3.71 2.23 1.95 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.26 -4.60 -3.45 -3.38 7.03 3.33 2.43 2.39 2.26 1.80 1.35 1.31 1.95 -3.71 2.23 1.95U.S. NONFARM JOBS (MIL).... 133.7 140.8 143.2 145.8 147.1 148.1 149.0 150.1 151.1 151.7 152.3 152.7 150.9 142.4 147.5 151.3 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ -39.99 22.91 7.10 7.28 3.61 2.89 2.48 3.05 2.58 1.52 1.58 1.21 1.37 -5.65 3.56 2.58 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -11.22 -6.86 -5.64 -4.05 9.98 5.20 4.05 3.01 2.75 2.41 2.18 1.72 1.37 -5.65 3.56 2.58TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)......... 306.7 324.3 327.4 328.5 329.6 331.1 332.8 333.7 334.4 334.9 335.5 336.1 355.1 327.8 330.5 334.6 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…..... -42.99 25.02 3.87 1.41 1.29 1.88 1.99 1.13 0.77 0.66 0.75 0.74 1.31 -7.67 0.82 1.24 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -14.02 -8.86 -7.23 -6.92 7.47 2.11 1.64 1.57 1.44 1.14 0.83 0.73 1.31 -7.67 0.82 1.24U.S. MFG JOBS (MIL)………... 11.8 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.2 12.4 12.5 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... -29.50 13.68 3.42 0.99 2.94 0.82 1.05 1.43 -0.35 0.39 2.48 2.10 1.19 -4.62 0.96 0.97 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.35 -5.49 -4.69 -4.35 5.14 2.03 1.44 1.55 0.73 0.63 0.98 1.15 1.19 -4.62 0.96 0.97TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE %).................................. 12.1 8.2 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.4 7.5 5.2 4.4

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)................................. 13.0 8.8 6.8 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.7 8.1 5.7 4.7

CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2012=100.0)…............... 112.9 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.4 119.1 119.7 112.3 113.6 115.8 118.2 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. -1.82 3.59 1.95 1.76 2.24 1.96 2.08 1.93 1.98 2.02 2.10 2.12 1.81 1.17 1.93 2.01 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 0.61 1.12 1.26 1.35 2.38 1.98 2.01 2.06 1.99 2.01 2.01 2.06 1.81 1.17 1.93 2.01U.S. PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)…………............. 110.4 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.3 109.9 111.2 113.3 115.8

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -1.60 3.70 1.68 1.46 2.30 2.26 2.40 2.12 2.15 2.08 2.11 1.98 1.49 1.20 1.90 2.20 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 0.65 1.21 1.25 1.29 2.28 1.92 2.10 2.27 2.23 2.19 2.11 2.08 1.49 1.20 1.90 2.20CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)..... 2.563 2.595 2.610 2.621 2.638 2.657 2.677 2.693 2.710 2.726 2.743 2.758 2.557 2.589 2.648 2.718 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... -3.53 5.16 2.29 1.63 2.70 2.91 2.95 2.42 2.58 2.44 2.50 2.24 1.81 1.26 2.30 2.64 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 0.44 1.25 1.23 1.34 2.94 2.38 2.55 2.75 2.71 2.60 2.49 2.44 1.81 1.26 2.30 2.64BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)................................. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.3 3.5 3.3 3.3

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)…..................... 0.060 0.093 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 2.158 0.378 0.100 0.100

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)................................. 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.2

TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$).............................. 31443 33207 33303 33127 33135 33213 33379 33671 33921 34157 34370 34641 128957 129563 132854 136119

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... -2.10 24.40 1.17 -2.10 0.10 0.94 2.02 3.54 3.00 2.82 2.51 3.19 4.39 0.47 2.54 2.46 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr... -2.21 2.82 1.36 4.80 5.38 0.02 0.23 1.64 2.37 2.84 2.97 2.88 4.39 0.47 2.54 2.46TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)… 34724 37047 37304 37319 37525 37817 38199 38709 39163 39591 40010 40477 141670 144124 150860 157472 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ -3.67 29.57 2.80 0.16 2.23 3.15 4.11 5.45 4.76 4.44 4.30 4.76 5.95 1.73 4.67 4.38 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -1.57 4.18 2.72 6.47 8.07 2.08 2.40 3.73 4.36 4.69 4.74 4.57 5.95 1.73 4.67 4.38TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2012$)………….... 48594 48052 47984 47917 47889 47904 47915 48091 48277 48487 48668 48874 47349 48068 47906 48380 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 8.23 -4.39 -0.56 -0.56 -0.23 0.13 0.09 1.47 1.56 1.75 1.50 1.70 0.83 1.52 -0.34 0.99 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.27 1.67 1.86 0.57 -1.45 -0.31 -0.14 0.36 0.81 1.22 1.57 1.63 0.83 1.52 -0.34 0.99TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($).......................... 53665 53609 53748 53980 54233 54545 54834 55287 55737 56199 56654 57107 52012 53463 54398 55969

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 6.49 -0.42 1.04 1.74 1.89 2.32 2.14 3.34 3.29 3.36 3.28 3.24 2.33 2.79 1.75 2.89 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.93 3.02 3.23 2.18 1.06 1.75 2.02 2.42 2.77 3.03 3.32 3.29 2.33 2.79 1.75 2.89

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric ModelSources: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, IHS, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED




Table 2.3: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)History Forecast Data

2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1TOTAL NONFARM……………………..………….. 3141.3 3152.0 2858.7 2984.2 3033.0 3045.5 3059.7 3083.5 3106.8 3118.4 3128.7 3139.2 3148.8 3159.4

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…......………….. 1.71 1.37 -32.35 18.76 6.70 1.67 1.88 3.15 3.05 1.50 1.33 1.34 1.23 1.35% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………....……….. 1.88 1.47 -8.26 -4.60 -3.45 -3.38 7.03 3.33 2.43 2.39 2.26 1.80 1.35 1.31

NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSTRUCTION……………………………. 134.3 133.3 130.5 130.6 132.6 133.0 133.5 134.2 134.9 135.5 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.5

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………….………….. -0.69 -2.75 -8.33 0.51 6.03 1.38 1.55 1.93 2.06 2.01 1.56 1.24 1.40 1.68% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………….…….. 2.21 -0.17 -2.88 -2.87 -1.27 -0.24 2.35 2.70 1.73 1.89 1.89 1.72 1.55 1.47

MANUFACTURING............………………………… 352.9 352.9 306.7 324.3 327.4 328.5 329.6 331.1 332.8 333.7 334.4 334.9 335.5 336.1% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………….………….. -3.25 0.04 -42.99 25.02 3.87 1.41 1.29 1.88 1.99 1.13 0.77 0.66 0.75 0.74% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....…………….……….. 0.00 -0.55 -14.02 -8.86 -7.23 -6.92 7.47 2.11 1.64 1.57 1.44 1.14 0.83 0.73

TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……..... 646.0 652.6 617.7 635.1 642.4 644.9 647.5 649.9 650.8 650.9 651.1 651.4 651.7 651.9% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……....………….……….. 4.87 4.13 -19.74 11.80 4.67 1.53 1.64 1.48 0.56 0.05 0.12 0.23 0.18 0.11% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…................................ 2.59 2.58 -2.99 -0.51 -0.55 -1.18 4.83 2.32 1.30 0.93 0.55 0.24 0.15 0.16

INFORMATION.................………………………… 46.3 45.9 42.5 43.1 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………..……….. 4.14 -3.13 -26.48 5.76 4.18 3.38 2.14 2.70 2.23 1.45 1.39 0.51 0.58 0.63% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....……………….…….. 4.51 3.07 -6.18 -5.89 -5.88 -4.34 3.86 3.10 2.61 2.13 1.94 1.39 0.98 0.78

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………...……………… 173.2 174.8 172.4 174.3 175.4 176.1 176.4 176.7 176.9 177.3 177.8 178.4 179.0 179.7% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……....…….…………….. -0.15 3.75 -5.38 4.48 2.52 1.52 0.87 0.50 0.64 0.92 1.12 1.37 1.33 1.56% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 2.22 2.34 0.25 0.60 1.26 0.72 2.34 1.35 0.88 0.73 0.79 1.01 1.18 1.34

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES….... 429.1 429.6 388.6 405.2 411.6 412.7 415.8 420.9 425.8 430.0 433.6 437.8 440.5 443.6% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…........………………….. 0.97 0.44 -33.03 18.21 6.41 1.09 3.03 4.97 4.75 4.05 3.41 3.91 2.52 2.79% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………....….. 2.35 1.18 -8.62 -5.34 -4.09 -3.94 6.99 3.86 3.45 4.20 4.29 4.03 3.47 3.16

EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………...….. 444.1 448.2 419.4 432.0 435.2 437.0 438.3 442.7 447.0 449.2 451.2 453.3 455.4 457.8% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR.………………………….. 0.94 3.71 -23.28 12.57 3.00 1.59 1.28 4.04 3.97 1.95 1.76 1.92 1.85 2.08% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 1.50 1.93 -4.87 -2.49 -2.00 -2.50 4.51 2.47 2.71 2.80 2.92 2.40 1.87 1.90

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…….....………………. 355.5 355.2 246.5 297.9 317.9 323.2 326.9 333.2 340.8 342.3 343.8 344.8 346.4 348.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR....……………………….. 6.92 -0.41 -76.80 113.22 29.80 6.75 4.69 8.00 9.38 1.75 1.81 1.15 1.91 2.01% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 4.21 3.17 -28.83 -14.81 -10.57 -9.01 32.61 11.88 7.19 5.91 5.18 3.47 1.65 1.72

OTHER SERVICES………......……………………. 121.5 121.1 106.1 117.3 117.7 118.0 118.4 119.9 121.3 121.6 122.0 122.3 122.7 123.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........…………………….. -0.33 -1.31 -40.94 49.04 1.41 0.94 1.38 5.27 4.82 1.02 1.17 1.12 1.34 1.62% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............……………….. 1.39 0.41 -12.46 -3.54 -3.12 -2.57 11.52 2.24 3.08 3.10 3.05 2.02 1.16 1.31

GOVERNMENT...................................................... 438.4 438.5 428.2 424.3 426.2 427.1 429.1 430.5 432.0 433.3 434.3 435.4 436.4 437.4% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……..…....…….. 0.52 0.06 -9.01 -3.59 1.75 0.85 1.87 1.36 1.43 1.16 0.90 1.00 0.96 0.94% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....………………….….. 0.13 0.24 -2.08 -3.08 -2.79 -2.60 0.19 1.46 1.38 1.46 1.21 1.12 1.01 0.95

Sources: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 2.13: Job Growth Stabilizes After a Tumultuous 2020

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS (November Forecast), and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.



slightly less severe than the national average, and as a result, the ensuing recovery will be slightly less pronounced, with Tennessee job growth of 2.2 percent for the 2021 year as a whole, versus 3.6 percent for the nation. The Tennessee forecast assumes no new fiscal stimulus package, but does assume that a COVID-19 vaccine will be made widely available by the second or third quarter of 2021, which will provide a boost to job growth in the second half of 2021.

Given how volatile employment growth rates have been over the last few quarters, it is useful to focus on employment levels as well. A good benchmark is to compare current and forecasted employment levels with employment levels prior to the pandemic. Based on current projections, nonfarm employment will return to its pre-pandemic peak level by the first quarter of 2023. While total nonfarm employment in Tennessee will make a full recovery by 2023, some sectors of the state economy will recover quicker or take longer to recover due to their exposure to the virus and various economic factors. As an example of the former, employment in the natural resources, mining, and construction sector is projected to regain all of its workers by early-2021 due to a strengthening construction sector and booming residential housing market. Large corporate construction projects such as Amazon’s new operations in Nashville and the FedEx expansion in Memphis will also help to lift construction payrolls. Most service sectors of the state economy will see decent gains, as employment levels recover over the next few years. One exception, however, is the leisure and hospitality sector, which faced the brunt of the initial job losses this past the spring, and will not reach pre-pandemic employment levels until 2025, as many smaller arts and entertainment venues struggle to keep their businesses afloat and restrictions on large public events likely remain in place in the near term. The employment outlook for the manufacturing sector is also rather bleak, as a continued reliance on automation and advanced manufacturing will likely keep employment growth largely in check. As a result,

manufacturing employment levels will grow slowly over the forecast horizon and remain below pre-pandemic peak levels through 2030.

As the labor market recovers, the state’s unemployment rate will continue to trend downwards. The number of unemployed people will fall sharply in 2021 and 2022 but will remain above the pre-pandemic level through the short-term forecast horizon. As a result, the state unemployment rate will fall to 4.3 percent by the end of 2022. This is well above the 3.3 percent rate that prevailed for much of 2019, but would still make for a remarkable recovery compared to the 12.1 percent rate from the second quarter of 2020 (largely driven by the 15.5 percent rate in April).

Nominal personal income in Tennessee will start to normalize in 2021, as effects from fiscal stimulus start to wane and more people regain employment. The former will lead to an 11.3 percent reduction in transfer payments in 2021 while the latter results in a 4.0 percent increase in wages and salaries. Taken together, nominal personal income will grow by a subdued 1.1 percent in 2021 but will still outpace national income growth, which is projected to fall by 1.4 percent in 2021. The national economy saw a much stronger uptick in federal transfer payments during the second quarter of 2020 (transfer payments grew by an annualized rate of 853.9 percent in the U.S. versus 463.0 percent in Tennessee), and therefore the subsequent decline in transfer payments will be much more severe, and will pull national income growth into the negative territory in 2021. On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal income in Tennessee will advance by 1.8 percent in FY20/21 and 3.3 percent in FY21/22.

Taxable Sales in Tennessee will expand by 4.7 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. Relatively strong growth in 2021 will be due to a recovery in the sales of services, as eating and drinking places will see an 8.4 percent increase in sales, and hotels and motels will see a 33.9 percent increase, compared to their depressed collections in 2020. However, we project that taxable sales in these categories will remain below pre-pandemic levels until the pandemic subsides.




Strong taxable sales growth will also be driven by the collection of sales and use taxes from online purchases. In 2018, the Supreme Court case of South Dakota v. Wayfair Inc. decided that states could mandate that businesses without a physical presence in the state (e.g. internet sellers) collect and remit sales and use taxes on transactions made in the state. On July 1, 2019, Tennessee began taxing these online retailers if their sales

to Tennessee consumers exceeded $500,000 in the previous year. However, as of October 2020, this sales threshold was reduced from $500,000 to $100,000, which should broaden the base of online sales tax collections and lead to stronger sales tax growth in 2021. These tailwinds, however, will be counteracted by food and liquor store sales, which after booming in 2020, are projected to fall in 2021 as consumer-spending


patterns start to normalize to some extent.• After contracting by 3.5 percent in 2020,

Tennessee’s inflation-adjusted GDP will increase by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Expectations are that state GDP will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

• Nonfarm employment in Tennessee will fall by 3.7 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic recession, before increasing by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022. Strong employment growth is projected for the second half of 2021 on the hopes of an effective and widely distributed vaccine.

• Total nonfarm employment will return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2023. However, employment in leisure and hospitality will not recover until 2025 and manufacturing employment will remain below pre-pandemic levels

through 2030. • The state’s unemployment rate will trend

downwards through the short-term forecast horizon, falling to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.

• Nominal personal income will grow

by 4.2 percent in 2020. Despite the economic fallout from the pandemic, nominal personal income growth will keep pace with recent history due to a large spike in federal transfer payments through enhanced unemployment benefits and the distribution of stimulus checks. Federal transfer payments will start to normalize in 2021 as fiscal stimulus softens, leading to a much weaker 1.1 percent rate of nominal income growth for 2021, followed by a more normal 4.6 percent rate of growth in 2022.

2.4. TENNESSEE FORECAST AT A GLANCE



Introduction

Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex encompasses the supply chain from farm and forest to consumers of the end products, such as retail foods, clothing, paper, and furniture. The agri-forestry industrial complex includes crop and livestock farming, timber removal and sawmills, and agricultural inputs production, such as agricultural machinery, fertilizers, soil amendments, and herbicides. The complex also includes downstream manufacturers of food and fiber goods (i.e., food and beverage products, textiles and textile products, wood, paper, and furniture products) that demand goods from farmers and first-stage forestry operations. This section of the report includes economic indicators for a) primary agriculture and forestry (farming and first-stage forestry); b) secondary agriculture and forestry (manufacturing and processing facilities); and c) well-being indicators for rural communities.4 In 2020, Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex has been greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy measures taken at the national, state, and county levels designed to control the spread of the virus, as well as policy measures designed to counteract deleterious economic impacts from the pandemic. This chapter also focuses on the how COVID-19 may have impacted crop and livestock farmers in Tennessee; the state’s food and beverage industries, in particular small businesses; food sufficiency; and the well-being of Tennessee’s households.

Agriculture and Primary Forestry

Agricultural Land Use and Farm SizeIn 2019, farming operations occupied 10.8

million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area. Just under 49 percent of the farmland in Tennessee is operated as cropland (USDA/NASS,

4 Defined as the primary industries typically associated with agriculture and forest operations, such as growing crops, the breeding and feeding of livestock, and the management and logging of trees. Also included in the industrial complex are input-supplying industries and value-added subsectors, which include food and beverage manufacturing, apparel and textiles, and forestry products manufacturing.

2020e). Of Tennessee’s 69,700 farming operations, average farm size in 2019 was around 155 acres. Tennessee ranks 9th in the U.S. in terms of the number of farming operations but 26th in terms of acres operated, reflecting farm sizes smaller than the U.S. average (USDA/ERS, 2020e). Cash receipts from farming in Tennessee for 2019 were $3.6 billion, with about 63 percent of this value coming from crops and 37 percent from animals and animal products (USDA/ERS 2020a).

Tennessee’s Crops and LivestockIn terms of harvested acreage, Tennessee’s

four largest row crops are corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Based on 2019 national cash receipts by commodity, Tennessee ranks 17th in corn production ($498.1 million; 1.0 percent of U.S. total); 9th in cotton production ($291.6 million; 4.1 percent of U.S. total); 16th in soybean production ($602.9 million; 1.8 percent of U.S. total); and 18th in wheat production ($81.6 million; 0.9 percent of U.S. total) (USDA/ERS, 2020a). Harvested acreage, production, and yield from 2015 to 2020 for the four principal row crops are shown in Table 2.4. In 2020, harvested acreage for Tennessee row crops were estimated to be 1.62 million acres of soybeans, 820,000 acres of corn, 280,000 acres of cotton, and 230,000 acres of wheat. Soybean acreage was up 18.0 percent from 2019 and 1.0 percent above the previous five-year average; corn acreage was down 10.0 percent compared to 2019 and 6.0 percent greater than the five-year average; cotton acreage was down 30.0 percent compared to 2019 and 6.0 percent lower than the five-year average; and wheat acreage was up 5.0 percent from 2019 and 25.0 percent lower than the five-year average (USDA/NASS, 2020e). Soybean acreage was up from 2019 due to improved planting conditions in spring 2020 compared to 2019, when substantial acres were prevented from being planted due to flooding and wet conditions. Corn acres were down, as spring 2020 prices favored planting soybeans over corn. Wheat acres were down as a result of lower prices

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL ECONOMY



2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL ECONOMY, CONTINUED

in fall 2019 and a challenging fall planting season in West Tennessee due to excess moisture. Cotton acres were down as cotton prices were adversely affected by COVID-19 during the spring planting season. Cotton prices dropped to near 50 cents for most of the spring. State average corn and soybean yields for 2020 are projected to be 165 bushels per acre (12 bushels per acre below last year) and 49 bushels per acre (2 bushels per acre higher than last year), respectively. Cotton yield is projected at 1,117 pounds per acre, slightly below last year’s all-time record of 1,138 pounds per acre. Wheat yield is estimated at 59 bushels per acre, 8 bushels per acre lower than last year and 10 bushels below the five-year average. In Tennessee, 2020 growing conditions varied across the state with improved spring planting conditions compared to 2019 but greater moisture variability after planting. The dominant driver in crop selection and anticipated prices in spring 2020 was the impact of COVID-19. The increased uncertainty and low price environment favored increased planted acres of low input cost commodities, such as soybeans, over higher input

cost commodities, such as corn or cotton. Prices received by Tennessee producers are

influenced by local, national, and global market forces. Due to COVID-19, most commodity prices were significantly depressed from March through July. Lower prices during this time period limited Tennessee crop producer’s ability to manage price risk during the production season. However, a combination of domestic weather events (a derecho, an active hurricane season, flash droughts in the Midwest, and drought in the Southern Plains); global weather (drought in parts of Europe, Ukraine, and Russia and delayed planting in South America due to a later onset of the rainy season); and improved export sales (mostly to China) propelled row crop prices dramatically higher. From August 1 to November 15, soybean, corn, cotton, and wheat prices increased $2.50 per bushel, $0.80 per bushel, $0.05 per pound, and $0.65 per bushel.

Currently, 2020 marketing year average corn prices are 2.9 percent above the five-year average and 1.8 percent below 2019; soybean prices are 12.6 percent above the five-year average and 16.9

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*5-Year Avg.

Change 5-Year Avg. to 2020

Change 2019 to 2020

CornHarvested Acres (million) 0.73 0.83 0.71 0.67 0.91 0.82 0.77 6% -10%

Production (million bushels) 116.8 125.3 121.4 112.6 161.1 135.3 127.44 6% -16%

Yield (bu/acre) 160 151 171 168 177 165 165.4 0% -7%

CottonHarvested Acres (million) 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.36 0.4 0.28 0.298 -6% -30%

Production (‘000 bales) 0.31 0.58 0.73 0.77 0.96 0.64 0.67 -4% -33%

Yield (bu/acre) 1,046 1,104 1,033 1,041 1,138 1,117 1072.4 4% -2%

SoybeansHarvested Acres (million) 1.72 1.63 1.66 1.67 1.37 1.62 1.61 1% 18%

Production (million bushels) 79.1 73.4 83 76 64.4 79.4 75.18 6% 23%

Yield (bu/acre) 46 45 50 45.5 47 49 46.7 5% 4%

WheatHarvested Acres (million) 0.4 0.34 0.28 0.29 0.22 0.23 0.306 -25% 5%

Production (million bushels) 26.9 24.5 19.3 18.5 14.4 13.6 20.72 -34% -6%

Yield (bu/acre) 68 73 70 65 67 59 68.6 -14% -12%

Table 2.4. Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production, and Yield for Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, and Wheat, 2015-2020*

*Estimated data.Source: USDA/NASS, 2020e.



percent above 2019; wheat prices are 5.4 percent above the five-year average and 2.8 percent below 2019; and cotton prices are 3.0 percent below the five-year average and 8.5 percent above 2019 (Table 2.5). However, the current marketing year average prices for 2020 are expected to improve based on the remaining time in the 2020/21 marketing year and higher current prices. The marketing year for corn and soybeans is from September 1 to August 31; wheat, June 1 to May 31; and cotton, August 1 to July 31.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Ad Hoc Direct Payments to Producers

In 2018 and 2019, Tennessee producers received $69.0 and $245.8 million in direct payments from the federal government through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) (USDA/ERS, 2020d). The program was implemented to assist producers that had been adversely affected by retaliatory tariffs due to trade disputes with several nations, most notably China.

In 2020, direct payments were issued to producers that had been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) authorized direct payments to producers in two stages. CFAP 1 sign-up ended September 11, 2020. As at November 8, 2020, CFAP 1.0 payments to Tennessee producers were (USDA/FSA, 2020a):

• Dairy — $7.94 million; 170 applicants• Aquaculture/nursery/flora — $1.68 million; 73 applications

5 Sales commodities include specialty crops, aquaculture, nursery crops and floriculture, and other commodities not included in the price trigger and flat-rate

• Specialty crops — $0.24 million; 21 applications• Non-specialty crops — $35.4 million; 3,131 applications• Livestock — $87.4 million; 19,175 applications

Total payments across all categories was over $132.6 million, with 21,223 applications. For CFAP 1, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($85.1 million); cotton ($15.6 million); corn ($14.6 million); milk ($7.94 million); and soybeans ($4.8 million).

The CFAP 2 program accepts applications until December 11, 2020. As of November 8, 2020, Tennessee had received the following CFAP 2.0 payments and applications by category (USDA/FSA, 2020b):

• Acreage-based — $58.8 million; 8,589 applications• Dairy — $4.2 million; 120 applications• Eggs/broilers — $0.03 million; 33 applications• Livestock — $41.2 million; 12,540 applications• Sales Commodities — $19.9 million; 843 applications

Total payments across all categories is currently $124.2 million, with 19,792 applications. For CFAP 2, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($39.6 million); corn ($24.1 million); soybeans ($19.9 million); sales commodities5 ($13.9 million); and cotton ($9.0 million).


Table 2.5. Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2015-2020*

*Average daily cash price in Tennessee for the start of the 2020/21 marketing year to November 10, 2020, as reported by USDA/AMS. The marketing year for corn and soybeans is from September 1 to August 31; wheat, June 1 to May 31; and cotton, August 1 to July 31.Source: USDA/NASS, 2020e.

Commodity 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5-Year Average 2020*

Corn $3.92 $3.66 $3.55 $3.75 $3.95 $3.77 $3.88

Cotton $0.62 $0.70 $0.68 $0.73 $0.59 $0.66 $0.64

Soybeans $9.29 $9.78 $9.70 $8.75 $8.96 $9.30 $10.47

Wheat $5.22 $4.64 $4.60 $5.24 $5.45 $5.03 $5.30



Farm Bill Programs for Row-Crop Producers

The current Farm Bill (the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018) covers the crop years 2019-2023 and extends the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs initially authorized in the 2014 Farm Bill (the Agricultural Act of 2014). In calendar year 2019, Tennessee producers received $7.9 million in direct payments from ARC and $19.2 million from PLC programs (USDA/ERS, 2020d).6 Payments for the calendar year 2020 were issued starting October 1, 2020, but aggregated data were not currently available at the time of publication. Tennessee producers purchased 24,609 federal crop insurance policies, covering 2.88 million acres and $1.02 billion of crop value. The federal government’s portion of crop insurance premiums paid by Tennessee producers was $59.1 million for the 2020 crop year (USDA/RMA, 2020).

Row Crops Outlook

Looking towards 2021, prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain. Prices for 2020/21 will depend on export sales, domestic weather and planting conditions, South American crop progress, global weather, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth. Producer profitability for the 2018-2020 crop years was largely contingent on payments from the federal government. Payments from the federal government for the 2021 crop year and beyond are likely to be substantially lower than the past three years; thus, producer profitability will be driven primarily by commodity prices and yields.

For the 2020/21 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be $5.50-$6.50 for wheat; $3.85-$4.75 for corn; $10.00-$11.75 for soybeans; and $0.65-$0.75 for cotton. Key factors for producer profitability in 2020/21 include trade disruptions, adverse weather events, access to financing, interest rates, exchange rates, regulations

payment categories.6 Payments received in the calendar year are for the previous year’s crop (i.e., 2019 payments are for the crop produced in 2018).

and policies, and global economic growth.Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries Market Trends and Outlook

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries

Animals and animal products accounted for 37.0 percent ($1.28 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts in 2019. Based on 2019 cash receipts, cattle and calves was the third largest agricultural sector in Tennessee with cash receipts totaling $487.7 million, which accounted for 14.1 percent of total agricultural cash receipts. Broiler receipts were only $29.9 million behind cattle and calves and were a close fourth, totaling more than $457.7 million and representing 13.2 percent of cash receipts. Dairy products and milk (3.1 percent of cash receipts), hogs (2.6 percent), and chicken eggs (1.7 percent) rounded out the top five Tennessee rankings for animals and animal products based on cash receipts in 2019 (USDA/ERS, 2020a). Tennessee markets for animals and animal products are influenced by national and international market forces. Thus, changes in the national and international market impact local prices, production, and receipts.

The key issues impacting the 2020 animal and animal products markets have been associated with temporary slaughter plant closures due to COVID-19, aftermath impacts of the temporary closure of the Tyson Holcomb cattle slaughter plant following a fire at the facility, disruptions in food service, restaurants and retail due to COVID-19, and trade agreements. Through the first week of October 2020, year-to-date red meat (beef, veal, pork, lamb/mutton) production was 0.1 percent higher than the previous year and was slightly more than 41 billion pounds (USDA/AMS, 2020a). Similarly, poultry (chicken, turkey, and ducks) production through the end of September was 0.9 percent greater than the same nine months in 2019 and totaled 35.2 billion pounds (USDA/AMS, 2020c). Milk production the first eight months of 2020 was up 1.8 percent from the




2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL ECONOMY

previous year to 149.5 billion pounds (USDA/NASS, 2020b).

International demand for meat has been greatly influenced by COVID-19, but it has done its best to recover following the peak outbreak domestically. U.S. beef exports from January through August decreased 5.8 percent compared to 2019 and totaled 1.38 billion pounds. Total beef export value over the first eight months of 2020 totaled nearly $4.38 billion, a decrease of 8.8 percent compared to 2019. Pork exports the first eight months of 2020 were 22.3 percent higher than 2019 and totaled 3.71 billion pounds. Total pork export value totaled $4.45 billion, an increase of 20.0 percent compared to 2019 (USMEF, 2020). On the dairy side, exports of most dairy products the first eight months of 2020 were greater than year-ago levels. The total aggregate volume of U.S. dairy exports through August were 3.37 billion pounds, which is an increase of 15.2 percent compared to 2019, while total dairy export value is up 14.0 percent to $4.47 billion (U.S. Dairy Export Council, 2020).

Calf (500-600 pound steer) and feeder cattle (700-800 pound steer) prices in Tennessee through the first nine months of 2020 decreased 3.8 and 5.3 percent, respectively, compared to the same nine months in 2019 (USDA/AMS, 2020d). The price pressure in 2020 stems from disruptions in the supply chain caused by COVID-19, both domestically and internationally. Much of the negative price pressure comes from the closure of restaurants and food service establishments across the U.S., while the same issue and depressed economies are influencing international trading partners. Similarly, Tennessee milk prices for the Appalachian and Southeast Federal Milk Marketing Orders through the first eight months of 2020 decreased 2.2 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, compared to the same eight months in 2019 (USDA/AMS, 2020e).

Tennessee ranked 16th nationally in terms of total cattle and calf inventory as of January 1, 2020 (1.81 million head including 909,000 beef cows and 31,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranks 11th in total beef

cow numbers, with Kentucky being the only state east of the Mississippi River with a larger beef cow inventory (USDA/NASS, 2020c). The state is ranked second nationally in meat goat numbers at 100,000 head (USDA/NASS, 2020d).

The beef sector has little reason to expand at this point, with the supply disruptions that COVID-19 caused throughout the industry. The pork sector has strong exports and will likely expand further if China continues to demand U.S. pork. The poultry sector will likely be flat moving into 2021. The dairy industry is unlikely to expand production nationally due to expectations of lower prices moving into 2021. Tennessee beef cattle numbers are expected to remain steady in 2021, while dairy cattle numbers will likely decline further.

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Impacts of COVID-19, CFAP, and Outlook

The livestock, poultry, and dairy industries were not immune to the impacts of COVID-19. Actually, these industries were greatly impacted by the closings of restaurants, food service entities, and school systems, because it negatively impacted the supply chain and demand structure. The shift in where meat protein and dairy products were consumed, home versus away from home, resulted in a shift in the products demanded, as well as forcing processors to make changes to meet those demands.

Beginning with beef and pork, the onset of coronavirus led to disruptions in many cattle and hog slaughter and processing facilities. In most instances, workers in these facilities work within a few feet of each other. This close proximity of workers resulted in some facilities experiencing virus outbreaks among workers, causing many facilities to close or reduce slaughter levels for a short period to reduce the incidence of spread, as well as to install equipment to protect employees from the virus. As slaughter levels declined, so did cattle and hog prices throughout the supply chain.

Furthermore, the closure of many restaurants




and food service providers negatively impacted the supply chains for beef and pork. Restaurants and grocery stores do not generally order the same cuts of meat, and they typically receive different size packages. The shift of consumers purchasing more from grocery stores forced meat packers to adjust facilities to provide the desired cuts and package sizes.

The poultry sector was not influenced the same as cattle and hogs in that slaughter and processing facilities have much more automation. Still, this industry was influenced by the shift of consumers purchasing more from grocery stores as opposed to restaurants.

The dairy industry was influenced by the closure of restaurants, because this is where many of the dairy solids such as cheese and butter are consumed. Similarly, the closure of school systems negatively impacted school lunch programs and thus the consumption of fluid milk. However, the most publicized happening was the dumping of milk due to the inability to get it all processed. Milk was being consumed during the midst of the pandemic, as could be seen with empty milk coolers, but the inability to process milk fast enough resulted in milk being dumped.

Markets did pick up after the initial shock from COVID-19. The pork industry has been primarily supported by strong exports to China, as they continue to recover from African Swine Fever in 2019. The dairy industry has seen strong exports and a resumption of decent demand for milk and milk products domestically, which has supported prices. The beef industry has seen a resumption of typical slaughter levels, which helped support prices, but cattle prices and beef prices are succumbing to seasonal tendencies. The poultry sector has not been as fortunate in that prices at the farm level are struggling as the industry continues to produce a lot of meat.

As many sectors of the agricultural community struggled with low commodity prices, the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP1) provided help to maintain farm income. As of October 13, 2020, cattle, dairy, and hog producers in Tennessee had received $85.07 million, $7.94 million, and $1.44 million, respectively,

from CFAP1 (USDA/FSA 2020a). A second CFAP program (CFAP2), which is still in the sign-up period, has distributed $2.74 million to dairy producers and $20.88 million to livestock producers in Tennessee, as of October 13, 2020 (USDA/FSA 2020b).

Looking into 2021, the livestock, poultry, and dairy industries will be tempered by the happenings of 2020. It may be difficult for many producers to match 2020 farm income in 2021 if further governmental assistance is not provided. Despite the expectation of lower farm income in 2021, livestock, poultry, and dairy prices are expected to be on par or slightly higher than 2020.

U.S. and Tennessee Agricultural Trade OutlookIn fiscal year (FY) 2020 (October 2019 –

September 2020), total U.S. agricultural and related exports, as reported by the USDA, were $151.5 billion, down 1 percent when compared to the previous fiscal year ($153 billion) (USDA/FAS, 2020). While trade tensions with China and the EU were still issues in FY 2020, another reason for this decline is the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a significant impact on the global demand for U.S. agricultural and related exports. The factors affecting exports at the national level appear to have had an even greater impact on Tennessee. Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $1.9 billion in FY 2020, down $143 million or 7 percent when compared to the previous fiscal year ($2.1 billion). In fact, Tennessee experienced declines in all major categories in FY 2020. Exports of bulk agricultural commodities ($710 million), which includes cotton, tobacco, and soybeans, were down $54 million or 7 percent; related product exports ($610 million), which includes forest products and distilled spirits, were down $50 million or 8 percent; consumer-oriented exports ($439 million), which includes meat and dairy products as well as processed food products, were down $27 million or 6 percent; and exports of intermediate products ($168 million) such as soybean meal and oil and other




Table 2.6. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020:

Total and by Major Product Category

Note: Fiscal Year (FY) is October to September. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.

Product Category FY 2019 FY 2020 Change Change

$ Million %

Agricultural and Related Products $2,070 $1,927 -$143 -6.9%

Bulk Agriculture 764 710 -54 -7.1%

Agricultural Related Products 660 610 -50 -7.6%

Consumer-Oriented Agriculture 466 439 -27 -5.8%

Intermediate Agriculture 180 168 -12 -6.4%

feeds were down $12 million or 6 percent (Table 2.6).

Key exports in FY 2020 for Tennessee included cotton ($646 million); prepared foods and beverages ($274 million); poultry products ($71 million); and

tobacco ($32 million). During this period, Tennessee was also a leading exporter of two agricultural-related products: distilled spirits ($464 million) and forest products ($143 million). Note that dairy products were a leading export for Tennessee in FY 2019 ($51 million) but decreased by over 80 percent in FY 2020 to only $9 million (USDA/FAS, 2020). For many leading sectors, Tennessee exports were down when compared to the previous fiscal year. The most noted declines were cotton exports, which were down $29 million in FY 2020 (down 4 percent), and forest products, which were down $46 million or 24 percent. There were two product categories among the top 10 exports that actually increased. Note that exports of prepared food and beverages increased by $17 million or 7 percent when compared to FY 2019, and poultry products increased by $13 million or 23 percent (Figure 2.14).

Changes in FY 2020 exports compared to the previous year could also be viewed from the perspective of countries that are major buyers of Tennessee products. In FY 2020, Tennessee exported to more than 140 countries, with the top

Figure 2.14. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in 2018 and 2019: Top 10 Product Categories

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.




markets being Canada, China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Pakistan. Noted declines in FY 2020 include a $35 million (38 percent) decrease in exports to Mexico, a $24 million (13 percent) decrease in exports to Vietnam, and a $23 million (7 percent) decrease in exports to Canada. Interestingly, exports to China increased substantially in FY 2020, increasing from $111 million in FY 2019 to $243 million in FY 2020 — an increase of 118 percent — which is an indication that the effects of the trade war may be subsiding (Table 2.7).

According to USDA, U.S. agricultural exports (excluding agricultural-related products) in FY 2021 are projected at $140.5 billion, up $5.5 billion from FY 2020. This projected increase is primarily driven by higher projected exports of soybeans and corn. Soybean exports are forecast up $4.2 billion from FY 2020 to $20.4 billion, largely due to expected strong demand from China and reduced competition from Brazil. Corn exports are projected up $700 million to $9.0 billion on expectations of higher export volume. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast up $500 million to $32.3 billion in FY 2021, led by higher beef and veal, variety meat, dairy, and poultry exports. Cotton exports, however, are forecast down $400 million to $5.0 billion on smaller volume and lower prices. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $18.5 billion, an increase of $4.5 billion from FY 2020, largely on higher expected soybean sales. Agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico are forecast at $21.0 billion and $19.3 billion, respectively (USDA/ERS, 2020f).

The positive U.S. outlook, in part, depends on China being able to satisfy its commitments under the Phase One Trade Agreement. According to the agreement, China will import $36.5 billion in U.S. agriculture in calendar year 2020 (Muhammad and Smith, 2020). According to the most recent trade data (as of the date of this report), China was still less than 50 percent ($12 billion) as of September 30, 2020 (USDA/FAS, 2020). However, a recent U.S. Trade Representative and USDA report cited that when including committed purchases and outstanding sales obligations, China was at 71 percent of the purchase commitments in the agreement

(USTR, 2020). Given China’s importance to Tennessee’s agricultural exports, achieving the Phase One Agreement commitments could have significant implications for Tennessee exports in FY 2021.

As COVID-19 began to spread across the U.S., businesses closed and individuals were asked to comply with shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders. Countries around the globe imposed similar measures. Consequently, the pandemic has negatively affected the global economy beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. The decrease in global demand due to these measures and the resulting decrease in household income has affected the global sales of Tennessee agricultural and related products. From March to July, Tennessee agricultural and related exports are relatively high compared to other months and usually peak during this period. In 2018, for instance, Tennessee exports steadily increased from $160 million in January to more than $270 million in March and then declined throughout the rest of the year. It is during this peak period when the lockdown order and closures were imposed. As a result, Tennessee agricultural and related exports from March to July in 2020 were significantly lower when compared to previous years. For instance, exports in March 2020 were

Table 2.7. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020 by Top 10 Partner

Countries (Destinations)

Note: Fiscal Year (FY) is October to September. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.

Rank Partner Country

FY 2019 FY 2020 Change Change

$ Million %

World $2,070 $1,927 -$143 -6.9%

1 Canada 309 287 -23 -7.3%

2 China 111 243 132 118.4%

3 Vietnam 179 155 -24 -13.4%

4 Turkey 111 106 -5 -4.9%

5 Pakistan 104 89 -14 -13.7%

6 France 76 62 -14 -18.8%

7 Netherlands 55 59 5 8.5%

8 Mexico 94 59 -35 -37.5%

9 Germany 24 48 24 99.0%

10 Indonesia 64 48 -16 -24.6%




less than $140 million, significantly less than March exports in prior years (Figure 2.15).

Tennessee agricultural and related exports as of July 2020 were down 15 percent when compared to the previous year. This was even larger than the national average (minus 4 percent) and is primarily due to decreased sales of cotton and forest products. As of July 2020, Tennessee exports were down $195 million when compared to the previous year, owning to declines in cotton exports ( $111 million) and forest product exports ( $39 million). Both products are used in manufacturing and rely on global clothing and apparel and furniture sales as a key driver of demand. The combination of reduced household incomes and government-imposed shutdowns has substantially reduced global spending on clothing and finished wood products. For example, Statista (2020) reports that U.S. clothing sales in 2020 decreased by 50 percent in March when compared to February and decreased by 75 percent in April

when compared to March. Similarly, U.S. furniture sales decreased by 21 percent in March and decreased by 49 percent in April when compared to previous months. The decrease in sales of these final products, which are produced in foreign countries like China and Vietnam, has resulted in decreased demand for the primary product (cotton and timber). As global sales of these final products recover, Tennessee exports of cotton and forest products should respond accordingly.

Financial Indicators for Tennessee Farming IndustriesSeveral measures can be used to indicate the

financial well-being of farms and farm operators in Tennessee. Table 2.8 presents financial data from 2015-2019 for the Tennessee farming sector. It is important to note that these values are prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, the value of farm production rose slightly from $4.20 in 2018 to $4.28 billion (USDA/ERS 2020e). Net farm income, however, rose markedly from $297

Figure 2.15. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports (monthly): 2017-2020

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.




million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019, averaging $12,626 per operation. Several other farm financial indicators had positive changes from 2018, with the net farm income ratio rising from 0.07 to 0.21, indicating an increased efficiency of converting production to net farm income, while capital consumption and operating expense ratios fell, reflecting a lower amount of capital consumed to generate production and a decline in the percentage of value of production made up of operating expenses, respectively. The interest expense ratios for the farming sector, holding at 6 percent or less, reflect a low debt burden and interest payment level relative to production. Times interest earned is another measure of ability to cover debt payments, specifically interest payments. In 2019, the value was 4.28, well above one, implying sufficient cash to meet interest payments. The 2019 estimated market value of land and buildings on farms was $43.1 billion or just over $618,000 per farm in Tennessee.

Rural InfrastructureThe on-farm grain storage capacity in

Tennessee remained 100 million bushels in 2019, while the state has an additional 137 off-farm storage facilities with 75 million bushels of storage capacity (USDA/NASS 2020a). A trending

growth in the state’s agricultural production has presented challenges to its storage capacity. A recent estimate by USDA Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS) suggests that Tennessee’s total storage capacity in 2020 will be again deficient for crop production and stocks (USDA/AMS 2020b). When storage does not meet grain production and stocks, transportation efficiency becomes significantly crucial to agricultural producers in the harvest season. Trucking remains the dominant mode for agricultural products in domestic markets, and the condition of the state’s road system is facing certain difficulties. About 15 percent of the major roads in the state are in poor or mediocre condition, while 4 percent of the state’s bridges are structurally deficient (TRIP 2020). Nearly 37 percent of the state’s bridges have been in operation for more than 50 years, an age for significant rehabilitation and replacement. The State of Tennessee has introduced a number of programs to address the challenges of transportation infrastructure, including the Highway Program 2021-2023 and the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP).

Primary Forestry in TennesseeIn 2017, roughly 51 percent of Tennessee was

Table 2.8. Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2015-2019

1 Excludes operator dwellings. Source: (USDA/ERS 2020e).

Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Value of Production (mill $) $4,578 $4,007 $4,284 $4,203 $4,281

Cash Farm Receipts (mill $) $3,670 $3,317 $3,573 $3,501 $3,457

Net Farm Income (mill $) $714 $203 $450 $297 $880

Interest Expense1 (mill $) $196 $208 $238 $263 $268

Market Value of Farmland, Buildings, & Equipment (mill $) $40,221 $41,093 $41,856 $42,728 $43,092

Capital Consumption1 (mill $) $750 $793 $670 $608 $549

Total Production Expenses1 (mill $) $3,832 $3,827 $3,908 $3,966 $3,643

Net Farm Income Ratio 0.16 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.21

Capital Consumption Ratio 0.16 0.20 0.16 0.14 0.13

Operating Expense Ratio 0.63 0.71 0.70 0.74 0.66

Interest Expense Ratio 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06

Times Interest Earned 4.65 1.98 2.89 2.13 4.28




covered in forest (13.9 million acres). The number of live trees on forestland is estimated at 8.4 billion trees, with a volume of 32.3 billion cubic feet. The forest cover is primarily hardwoods (89 percent of the forest composition), making the state one of the top three hardwood lumber-producing states in the U.S. There are more than 120 tree species in Tennessee. White oak, red oak, hickory, yellow poplar, and maple are some of the more predominant hardwood species. For softwoods, loblolly pine, Virginia pine, red cedar, and shortleaf pine are major species. The dominant forest type in the state is oak-hickory, accounting for an estimated 9.9 million acres (Tennessee Forestry Association, 2020). Of the close to 14.0 million acres in forest, 83.2 percent is privately owned with Federal and state/local forests comprising 10.0 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively (Tennessee Forestry Association, 2020; USDA Forest Service, 2020).

In 2017, the state’s 140 sawmill establishments employed 1,953 workers with a total payroll of $80.2 million, while the state’s 141 logging establishments employed 768 workers with a total payroll of $24.0 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a). From 2010 through 2017, average annual growth rates in employees, payroll, and establishments for sawmills (NAICS 321113)

were 0.7 percent, 7.6 percent, and -2.8 percent, respectively. For logging (NAICS 1133), the average annual growth rates over the same period were 2.0 percent, 5.9 percent, and -0.1 percent, respectively, for employees, payroll, and establishments.

Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee

Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and Employees

The state’s 1,714 food and fiber processing and manufacturing facilities employed 80,267 workers, with a payroll of $3.7 billion in 2017 (Table 2.9). The value of shipments originating from these industries was $40.1 billion (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a). By comparison, the state’s overall manufacturing employment was 321,195 workers in 2017, and the value of shipments was $155.4 billion. Thus, food- and fiber-related manufacturing in Tennessee employed more than one in four manufacturing workers and generated nearly $1 out of every $4 in manufacturing shipments. Food processing accounted for 50.4 percent of the values of food- and fiber-related manufacturing shipments, followed by beverage and tobacco products at 18.5 percent and paper products at 14.2 percent. Other than a 3.9 percent

Table 2.9. Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2017a

a Values for animal slaughtering and processing are embedded in food manufacturing (311) values. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a.

Manufacturing Industry (NAICS) Employees Payroll Establishments Shipments(number) (mill $) (number) (mill $)

Food (311) 33,365 $1,509 368 $20,218

Animal Slaughtering/ Processing (3116) 11,144 $380 62 $3,826

Beverage & Tobacco Products (312) 4,541 $262 157 $7,411

Textile Mills (313) 2,707 $141 45 $1,042

Textile Product Mills (314) 2,066 $79 121 $381

Apparel (315) 3,205 $83 83 $262

Leather & Allied Products (316) 424 $12 33 $33

Wood Products (321) 12,380 $483 476 $3,076

Paper (322) 11,178 $679 130 $5,684

Furniture & Related Products (337) 10,401 $427 301 $2,003

Total 80,267 $3,675 1,714 $40,110




decline in shipments in 2014, food, beverage, and tobacco product manufacturing experienced 4.0 percent average annual growth from 2010 to 2017. During this same time frame, forest product manufacturing also experienced an average annual growth of 3.7 percent.

Economic Impacts From the Agri-forestry Industrial ComplexIn 2018, the agri-forestry industrial complex

(farming/landowner through manufacturing) directly contributed (without multiplier effects) $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs. The agri-forestry industrial complex contributed $14.9 billion in value-added. When accounting for multiplier

effects, the agri-forestry industrial complex added $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Agriculture, with multiplier effects, accounted for 8.1 percent of the state’s economy and generated $58.9 billion in output, adding close to 255,000 jobs, with over 95,000 employed (both full- and part-time) directly in agricultural production (IMPLAN Group, LLC., 2018 data). Based on 2018 IMPLAN, Table 2.10 indicates the direct economic activity for selected agriculture and forest sectors, including the multiplier effects for these sectors, along with their employment and total value-added. Table 2.10 displays the economic activity,

Table 2.10. Direct and Multiplier Effects for Economic Activity, Employment, and Total Value-Added for Selected Agriculture and Forest Industries in Tennessee, 2018

a Total Industry Output – annual value of production by industry.b Employment – estimated number of wage and salary employees (both full- and part-time), as well as self-employed.c Total Value Added – income to workers paid by employers; self-employed income; interests, rents, royalties, dividends, and profit payments; and production and import taxes.d Primarily hay & seed farming.e Primarily hogs, sheep & goats, aquaculture, equine, and apiculture.Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC., 2018 data

Direct Multiplier Effects

Economic Activitya Economic Activitya Employmentb Total Value Addedc

Sector (million $) (million $) (number) (million $)

Oilseed farming $677.0 $1,033.4 7,282.0 $489.5

Grain farming $534.2 $914.4 9,339.8 $369.9

Vegetable & melon farming $95.1 $174.3 2,427.0 $57.7

Fruit farming $12.9 $22.6 466.6 $7.8

Tree nut farming $2.1 $4.0 115.1 $1.6

Greenhouse, nursery & f loric. $303.3 $545.1 6,522.2 $209.3

Tobacco farming $100.0 $176.5 2,966.2 $72.7

Cotton farming $309.4 $560.6 6,509.5 $221.3

All other crop farmingd $146.6 $278.5 20,697.3 $105.9

Beef cattle farming $559.1 $896.1 19,537.7 $297.8

Dairy cattle & milk production $110.3 $193.2 1,072.0 $52.1

Poultry & egg production $612.4 $1,034.5 4,821.3 $233.8

Animal prod., except cattle & poultry & eggse $145.6 $191.0 4,668.4 $110.9

Forestry, forest prod., & timber tract $27.2 $51.2 555.7 $35.3

Commercial logging $298.4 $567.1 6,005.2 $338.6

Sawmills $812.0 $1,454.2 6,576.1 $530.7

Pulp mills $162.7 $282.9 865.2 $106.0

Paper mills $1,619.9 $2,593.7 6,925.7 $1,036.9

Paperboard mills $830.3 $1,418.3 3,970.0 $551.4




employment, and total value-added for selected agriculture and forest industries.Rural Economies and Well-Being

Important contributors to the health of the agri-forestry complex are rural communities and their resources. In 2019, about 14.2 percent of Tennessee’s population lived in counties classified as rural. As classified here, rural counties had 2019 average populations of 22,037, while counties not classified as rural had average populations of 114,893 (Table 2.11). The state continues to become more urban in nature, as population growth in rural counties averaged 0.6 percent growth from 2010-2019, while counties classified as urban averaged 7.2 percent growth for that same period. The data in Table 8 also shows that rural counties had lower median household incomes, lower percentages of people aged 25 and over with four-year college degrees or greater, and higher unemployment and poverty rates than their urban counterparts.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate

Food and Fiber Industry ImpactsThe U.S. Census Bureau conducted a

series of surveys regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on smaller businesses (less than 500 employees and single establishment) from the middle of May through the end of June. Analysis of the COVID-19 impact on smaller agricultural processing and marketing firms indicated that most analyzed businesses have suffered marked reductions in sales, but these impacts varied greatly among different types of small businesses (Hughes, 2020). For example, 71.0 percent of apparel manufacturers and 67.5 percent of beverage and tobacco product manufacturers reported large negative impacts. Approximately 23.9 percent of wood product manufacturers reported a large negative impact and 29.4 percent reported little or no effect. Overall, businesses reported a slight

improvement in activity between the middle of May and end of June (Hughes, 2020).The Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry and the Paycheck Protection Program

In order to offset some of the pandemic’s impacts upon small businesses, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on March 27, 2020 (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020a). The package included over $2 trillion in economic relief to help offset the negative economic impacts of COVID-19. One of these small business assistance programs is the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which is administered by the Small Business Administration through local lending institutions. The PPP is designed to assist small business owners with maintaining payrolls and other business operating expenses during the pandemic and associated economic downturn by providing over $660 billion in forgivable loans. The PPP was approved initially on April 3, 2020, and was extended through the PPP and Health Care Enhancement Act on April 24, 2020, which also added to the loan amount originally created under the CARES Act. While the original PPP loan application deadline was June 30, 2020, the PPP resumed accepting applications on July 6, 2020, in response to the President signing the program’s extension legislation. The application deadline was extended to August 8, 2020.

As can be seen in Table 2.12, from April 3

Table 2.11. Population, Household Income, Education Level, Unemployment, and Poverty

Across Rural County Status, Tennessee

Sources: Index Mundi, 2020; USDA/ERS, 2020b,c,g,h.

Measure Rural Urban

2019 Average Population Per County 22,037 114,893

2010-2019 Population Change 0.6% 7.2%

2014-2018 Median Household Income (2018$) $39,432 $49,761

2014-2018 Education Level, Persons 25 and Over (5-Yr Avg) Completed 4-Yr College or Higher 13.3% 20.3%

2015-2019 Unemployment Rates (Percent) 5.5% 4.5%

2014-2018 Poverty Rates 20.07% 16.00%




through the first week in August, a total of 8,175 food and beverage firms in Tennessee had approved loans to help cover payroll through the PPP. This represents over half of all Tennessee food and beverage firms (Upendram et al., 2020). The levels of the market channel with the largest numbers of firms participating were restaurants, bars, and specialty food services, followed by food and beverage stores. In total, nearly $1.9 billion in loans were approved for Tennessee’s food and beverage industry from early April through early August. An estimated 150,048 jobs were retained under the PPP.

The Tennessee Green Industry and the Paycheck Protection Program

Table 2.13 presents an overview of the PPP loans approved for Tennessee’s nursery and greenhouse industry and the landscape service industry (Rihn and Jensen, 2020). A total of 102 nursery and greenhouse firms and 842 landscape service firms were approved for PPP loans. In

the nursery and greenhouse industry, PPP loans amounted to $8.25 million and retained an estimated 1,229 jobs. This equates to 1.49 jobs being retained per $10,000 in loans approved and an average loan amount of $6,715.33 per job retained. The landscape service industry received more loans, which amounted to $22.55 million and retained 4,257 jobs. An average of 1.89 jobs were retained for each $10,000 loans approved or an average of $5,297.19 loan per job retained.

Tennessee Household Food Sufficiency During the PandemicThe ability of households to obtain food is an

important indicator of their economic well-being. Food sufficiency captures a household’s ability to obtain enough food to meet their needs, and if they have enough food, the ability to obtain the types of food they want. To better understand how the pandemic has affected household well-being and food sufficiency, the U.S. Census Bureau initiated a new experimental survey in late April called the

Table 2.12. Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry PPP Loans, Loan Dollars, and Jobs Retained

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020b.

PPP Loans Approved as of First Week in August, 2020

Industry Number of Loans Loan Dollars Approved Jobs Retained

Food and Beverage Manufacturing 436 $58,011,947 6,017

Food and Beverage Wholesaling 196 $63,689,335 4,832

Food and Beverage Stores 1,566 $980,173,977 11,807

Restaurants, Bars, and Specialty Food Services 5,977 $782,582,527 127,392

Total 8,175 $1,884,457,786 150,048

Table 2.13. Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Loan Amounts, and Jobs Retained for Tennessee’s Nursery, Greenhouse, and Landscape Service Industries

aData on the PPP loans reported were from between April 3, 2020, and June 19, 2020.bData on the PPP loans reported were from between April 3, 2020, and July 30, 2020.Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020b.

Industry Number of Loans Approved

Loan Dollars Approved Jobs Retained

Avg. Loan Amount Per Job

Retained

Jobs Retained Per $10,000

Loans Approved

Nursery and Greenhouse Industrya 102 $8,253,139 1,229 $6,715.33 1.49

Landscape Service Industryb 842 $22,550,245 4,257 $5,297.19 1.89




Household Pulse Survey (HPS) (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020b). Jensen, et al. (2020) utilized weekly data for Tennessee from the first wave of the survey, April 23 through May 26, and from the second wave of the study, August 19 through October 12.7 8

As part of the survey, households were asked about their ability to obtain food in the past seven days. Households that indicated they sometimes or often did not have enough to eat were labeled food insufficient. The survey also asked if households received free groceries or meals in the past seven days, which is another indicator of food insufficiency.

In each week of the survey between April 23 and May 26, an average of 525,000 households, or approximately one in 10 households in Tennessee, indicated they were food insufficient. A similar number of households, approximately one in 10, indicated that they were food insufficient during the August 19 through October 12 time period as well. Of the currently food-insufficient households in the first wave of the survey, an average of 163,000 households per survey week indicated that they were newly food insufficient and had not experienced food insufficiency prior to March 13, 2020.

Households with children had higher rates of food insufficiency in nearly every week of the two survey waves. During April 23 to May 26 and August 19 through October 12, approximately 14 percent of households with children indicated they were food insufficient.

The use of free meals or groceries by food-insufficient households was highest during August 19 through September 28. In late April, about one in seven food-insufficient households received free meals or groceries in the past week; by mid-July that had increased to one in three households and declined to approximately 13 percent of households in later weeks. School lunches and food pantries or banks were consistently two of the most-used sources of free foods.7 This time period captures the end of the statewide stay-at-home order, which formally ended on April 30, and the beginning of the reopening.8 During the first wave of the survey, April 23 through May 26, there were four time periods of survey data: April 23-May 5, May 7-May 12, May 14-May 19, and May 21-26. Only the first time period of the survey (April 23-May 5) collected data for more than one week and that was due to sampling issues associated with starting a new survey. Every other time period collected data for one week and asked about households’ current status or behavior in the past week. In the second wave of the survey, August 19 through September 28, data was collected for a two-week time period before being released. However, households were still asked about their status in the past seven days. Therefore, for the purposes of this report, we refer to the results of the survey in terms of weekly outcomes.

Food-insufficient households were also asked to rate their confidence in their ability to afford food in the next four weeks. In late April, nearly 57 percent of food-insufficient households were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. This percentage declined to below 36 percent in early May, but by late May, it was back up to nearly 53 percent and stayed at about 50 percent through the beginning of October.

Compared to food-sufficient households, food-insufficient households were more likely to be younger, have children in the household, have a high school education, an income in 2019 below $35,000, and be unemployed.

Summary

Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex from the farmer/landowner to the manufacturer provides about $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs, and with multiplier effects, this is $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Farming operations occupy around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area, with just under half of this farmland in cropland. Tennessee’s farms tend to be smaller in size (155 acres) than the U.S. average. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, net farm income rose markedly from $297 million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019.

The well-being of Tennessee’s farming operations are tied in part to trends in national and international markets. In 2020, market forces shaped by COVID-19 have impacted the food and fiber sector in a variety of ways, from the farmer, through processors and manufacturers, to retailers, restaurants and bars, to households.

Although the pandemic was projected to neg-atively affect Tennessee’s farmers, CFAP payments




to farmers helped offset some of these losses, with payments at over $132.6 million and 21,223 appli-cations. Under the CFAP 1, the top five commodi-ties receiving payments were: cattle ($85.1 million); cotton ($15.6 million); corn ($14.6 million); milk ($7.94 million); and soybeans ($4.8 million).

Looking forward into 2021, crop prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain, being influenced by ex-port sales, domestic weather and planting condi-tions, South American crop progress, global weath-er, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth. The livestock and poultry sectors will see little reason for expansion, perhaps with the exception of pork due to trade with China. Trade has been impacted by the pandemic and the resulting global economic slowdown, with most marked effects on Tennes-see’s agricultural and related exports being cotton and forest products. The economic impacts of the beef payments alone added over $150 million to the state’s economy and increased Gross Regional Product $122 million (English et al., 2020).

Tennessee’s green industry has seen mixed effects from the pandemic. During the first weeks of the pandemic, firms in the nursery, greenhouse and landscape service industries received aid from PPP loans for payroll and operating expenses. While stay-at-home orders and consumers’ percep-tions of gardening as a means to improve personal health resulted in more homeowners gardening, longer-term impacts of reduced household in-comes could have negative impacts on demand for green industry goods.

Beyond the farm gate, agribusinesses have been impacted greatly by the pandemic. The state and national food and beverage industries have shown great resiliency. Initially, they were faced with supply chain disruptions in the early weeks of the pandemic. These disruptions have diminished over time. The food and beverage industries have also faced changes in demands for grocery retail products resulting from initial stockpiling and then from changes in employ-ment (reduced or losses in employment).

Changes have occurred with respect to consumer eating and drinking inside restaurants

and bars and also consumer online shopping for groceries. As the pandemic resolves, it is difficult to predict how much of these changes in food shopping will return to pre-pandemic levels. As stay-at-home orders were put in place and services of restaurants and bars limited in some areas in an effort to control spread of the virus, the state’s food and beverage industry was greatly impacted. The impacts nationally on small businesses were evidenced by large percentages stating the pandem-ic had caused major business disruptions during the first weeks of the pandemic.

Business disruptions among Tennessee’s food and beverage industries were evidenced by their par-ticipation in the PPP to help meet payroll and retain jobs. Notably, among Tennessee’s food and beverage industries, about one in two businesses participated in the PPP. The largest share of these by far were restaurants and bars. The jobs retained through the PPP by food and beverage businesses overall in Tennessee was projected at over 150,000 jobs.

Demand for food and beverages has also been impacted by households’ ability to pay for food. The ability of households in Tennessee to obtain suffi-cient food diminished during the pandemic. During April and May and in mid-August through early October, about one in 10 households in Tennessee indicated they were food insufficient. Of increased concern is that of the food-insufficient households, about 31 percent of these were newly food insuf-ficient. Furthermore, among the food-insufficient households, about half were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. Of partic-ular concern is that food-insufficient households are lower income, more likely to be unemployed, and more likely to have children in the household than those that are food sufficient.

Tennessee’s unemployment rates spiked in April 2020 but began falling through the summer. While hinting at possible beginnings of recovery, sustained recovery within the food and fiber sector in the coming months will greatly depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and associated mea-sures to control COVID-19’s spread; Tennessee households’ ability to afford food and beverages and confidence in eating and drinking out and




shopping in stores; and national and international market forces and shaping commodity markets.References

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Hughes, D.W. 2020. COVID-19 Impact on Activity for Smaller Agricultural Processing and Marketing Firms: May 17-23, 2020, Versus June 21-27, 2020. University of Tennessee Extension publication W 924. Available at https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/W924.pdf.

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CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook


CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

In this Chapter —

3.1. Introduction

3.2. Nonfarm Employment

3.3. Unemployment

3.4. Population & Labor Force

3.5. Income, Earnings & Output 3.6. ForecastataGlance

3.1. INTRODUCTION

Previous chapters have examined the short-term, 10 quarters ahead, outlook for both the national and state economies. The short-term projections are based on a cyclical forecast, which is largely driven by the ups and downs of the business cycle. Fluctuations in the current business cycle are more volatile than in previous years, and largely depend on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related responses. In contrast, this chapter takes a longer-term view of economic growth in Tennessee. In this chapter, we examine the state’s growth path over the last 10 years as well as its projected path over the next 10 years. In addition to presenting a retrospective on the state economy, we also examine some current and historical county and regional differences across Tennessee.

Recessions are not built into the long-term outlook as they are unpredictable by nature. Since the Great Depression, the average gap between two recessions (i.e. the economic expansion period) has been roughly 5 years. However, more recent expansion periods have tended to last longer, with two of the last three lasting for 10

years or more. While the economy is currently digging out of a pandemic-induced recession, it is certainly conceivable that another recession will occur at some point during the long-term 10-year forecast horizon.

Between 2010 and 2019, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) advanced at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 percent per year and slightly outpaced national output growth of 2.3 percent per year. Over the next decade, real GDP in Tennessee will see compound annual growth of 2.3 percent per year (between 2020 and 2030), versus a projected 2.6 percent per year for the national economy. Economic growth over the first few years of the new decade will be pretty volatile due to the pandemic and eventual economic recovery, with a sharp contraction in real GDP in 2020 and then relatively strong positive growth in 2021 and 2022. As noted in Chapter 2, we project that real GDP in Tennessee will recover to its pre-pandemic 2019 level by the end of 2022. After which, the state will settle into a more stable growth pattern, with compound annual growth of 2.1 percent per year from 2023 to 2030.

The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3



3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT

Unemployment rates, which spiked in 2020, will quickly fall over the next few years as the economy digs out of the recession’s trough. The state’s annual average unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent in 2020 (a 4.1 percentage point increase compared to the 2019 annual average), but will quickly fall to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. As the job market continues to recover, the unemployment rate will fall at a slower rate, hitting 4.0 percent in 2025 before resting at 3.9 percent for the remainder of the decade.

Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 1.3 percent per year between 2020 and 2030, versus 1.2 percent

for the nation as a whole. A relatively strong rate of employment growth is projected for 2021 and 2022 as jobs lost during the pandemic are added back to payrolls, while a more moderate pace of job growth is projected for the second half of the decade. Manufacturing employment in the state will be relatively flat over the ensuing decade, advancing by 0.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030 and picking up 15,000 more workers over the ten-year period. By comparison, nationwide manufacturing employment will shrink by 0.2 percent per year (CAGR) as manufacturers continue to retool and rely more heavily on advanced manufacturing and automation.

From 2010 to 2020, nonfarm employment in Tennessee grew by 15.0 percent. This is equivalent to a decent 1.4 percent compound annual growth rate. Over the last decade, job growth in Tennessee outpaced national job growth of 0.9 percent per year (CAGR). Employment growth at both the state and national levels would have been stronger had it not been for the dramatic loss of jobs this past spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 3.1 provides a historical view of Tennessee’s labor market as well as the long-term employment outlook ten years from now. For a perspective as to how the pandemic impacted long term job growth, the right side of the table presents employment growth rates for 2010 through 2019 as well as for 2010 through 2020. From 2010 to 2019, nonfarm employment in Tennessee grew by 19.4 percent (or 2.0 percent per year, CAGR), but due to the pandemic, average employment growth for the decade fell from 2.0 percent per year to 1.4 percent per year. A similar pattern holds true for the national workforce, which was on pace to grow by 1.7 percent per year (from 2010 to 2019), but average growth fell to 0.9 percent per year once 2020 employment figures are included.

Since 2010, manufacturing employment in Tennessee has seen relatively strong growth, advancing by an average rate of 2.0 percent per year from 2010 to 2019, and outpacing the 1.2 percent CAGR for the nation as a whole. The service sectors also saw robust job growth from 2010 to 2019. Jobs in professional and business services increased by 3.8 percent per year and employment in the leisure and hospitality sector grew by 3.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2019. However, employment levels in both leisure and hospitality and the manufacturing sector were slashed during the pandemic. Comparing the growth rates of 2010 through 2019 versus 2010 through 2020, we see that manufacturing employment growth fell from 2.0 percent per year from 2010 through 2019 to only 1.0 percent per year from 2010 through 2020 as more than 26 thousand manufacturing jobs were lost in 2020. Similarly, the rate of job growth in the leisure and hospitality sector fell from an average of 3.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2019 to 1.5 percent per year once 2020 jobs data are included, as nearly 45 thousand leisure and hospitality jobs were lost in 2020. Expectations are that leisure and hospitality will fully recover



3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

and see strong job gains over the next decade, as job growth will average 2.5 percent per year from 2020 to 2030. As a result, there will be nearly 40 thousand more leisure and hospitality workers in Tennessee in 2030 than there were in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Manufacturing employment on the other hand is projected to stay depressed due to lackluster global demand and a continued reliance on automation. Figure 3.1 presents the projected employment growth trajectory for both the state’s and nation’s manufacturing sectors. In Tennessee, manufacturing employment will only grow by 0.5 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030, and employment levels in 2030 will remain below pre-pandemic peak levels –in 2030 there will be 12.3 thousand fewer manufacturing workers in Tennessee than there were in 2019, prior to the pandemic. The manufacturing employment outlook is even worse at the national level, where manufacturing employment is projected to fall by 0.2 percent per year over the next ten years. Tennessee will likely avoid

contractions with the help of healthy job gains in transportation equipment manufacturing, due to a strong presence by companies such as Denso, and planned expansions by Volkswagen and General Motors (the latter recently announced a $2 billion expansion to produce electric vehicles in Spring Hill, TN).

The overall nonfarm employment outlook for Tennessee and the nation, extending out to 2030, is presented in Figure 3.2. Both the state and nation saw large labor force contractions in 2020 due to the pandemic, and are projected to see a large upswing in employment growth over the next few years as the job markets recover. After which, employment growth will slow markedly in the second half of the decade due to slower population growth and an ageing workforce.

Figure 3.3 presents employment growth patterns across all Tennessee counties between the first quarter of 2010 and first quarter of 2020 (prior to any adverse economic effects from the pandemic). Over the last decade there were 12 counties that saw shrinking labor

Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment in TN by Broad Sector (thousands of jobs)

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

Employment Growth Rate*

2010 2019 2020 2030 2010 to 2019

2010 to 2020

2020 to 2030

Total Nonfarm 2614.9 3123.0 3007.0 3436.6 1.99% 1.41% 1.34%

Natural Resources, Mining & Construction 105.1 134.2 131.7 153.0 2.75% 2.29% 1.50%

Manufacturing 296.9 355.1 327.8 342.8 2.01% 1.00% 0.45%

Trade, Transportation, Utilities 553.2 639.3 636.9 652.6 1.62% 1.42% 0.24%

Information 45.3 45.5 43.8 44.6 0.05% -0.34% 0.19%

Financial Activities 139.8 172.3 174.2 191.3 2.35% 2.22% 0.94%

Professional & Business Services 305.4 426.8 408.8 538.1 3.79% 2.96% 2.79%

Education & Health Services 375.6 441.9 433.7 530.3 1.82% 1.45% 2.03%

Leisure & Hospitality 262.0 349.0 304.4 388.8 3.24% 1.51% 2.48%

Other Services 101.2 121.2 115.5 130.6 2.03% 1.34% 1.23%

Government 430.6 437.8 429.3 464.3 0.18% -0.03% 0.79%

US nonfarm (in millions) 130.3 150.9 142.4 160.7 1.65% 0.89% 1.21%

US manufacturing (in millions) 11.5 12.8 12.2 12.0 1.20% 0.60% -0.22%




Figure 3.2: Nonfarm Job Growth Will See a Strong Post Pandemic Recovery Before Reverting Back to its Slower Long Term Trend

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, and Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.

Figure 3.1: Tennessee Will See Slow but Positive Manufacturing Employment Growth Over the Long Term While the U.S. Manufacturing Sector Will See Labor Force Contractions

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, and Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.




forces. However, all 12 of these counties are relatively small. Clay County was hit the hardest, seeing a 14.2 percent decline in jobs, followed by Carroll County, where employment shrunk by 9.3 percent. But given their relatively small populations, these large percentage point declines represent labor force reductions of 216 and 676 jobs respectively. In fact, among all 12 counties with negative job growth, the largest labor forces were in Dyer and Bedford. Dyer County had 16,242 workers in 2010, but lost 1,081 jobs (down 6.7 percent) over the last decade, and Bedford County, started with 16,902 workers in 2010 but this tally fell by 720 (or 4.3 percent) over the 10- year period. There were an additional 22 counties with employment growth below 10 percent –half of the state average growth rate of 19.8 percent. Most notably, Shelby County saw a very modest 7.4 percent rate of job growth over the 10-year period, representing an addition of 33,933 jobs to the more than 450 thousand job tally in 2010. In contrast, there were 34 counties to see job growth of 20 percent or more. Moore County saw the strongest rate of job growth, expanding by a robust 71.6 percent. However, due to Moore County’s small size, this only represented a net gain of 1,026 jobs. Williamson County had the second strongest rate of job growth, at 64.3 percent, which represented a more sizeable addition of 55,037 new jobs. In addition, Davidson County grew by 24.4 percent or a robust 100,718 jobs, and in Rutherford County employment increased by 44.0 percent or 41,070 jobs. In total, Tennessee added roughly 500 thousand jobs to the state economy over the last ten years. Nearly 40 percent of these new jobs came from these three counties in Middle Tennessee –Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson. The other larger Tennessee counties saw more modest rates of employment growth. Hamilton County saw employment growth of 16.8 percent or 29,818, and in Knox County employment advanced by 13.8 percent representing a net addition of 29,219 jobs.

Figure 3.4 presents manufacturing employment growth by Tennessee county for

the same 10-year period, 2010Q1 to 2020Q1. Tennessee saw relatively strong growth in the manufacturing sector, as employment grew by 19.2 percent between 2010 and 2020, far outpacing the 11.8 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. There were 56 Tennessee counties which saw manufacturing employment gains that outpaced the national average, 45 of which also outpaced the state’s average growth rate. Some notable highlights are listed below.

• Rutherford County added 8,390 new manufacturing jobs over the last decade, representing a 49.2 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2010. Manufacturing has been a vital economic growth engine for Rutherford County due to a strong presence in transportation equipment manufacturing (e.g. Nissan and Bridgestone Americas) as well food products (e.g. General Mills).

• Maury County added more than 4,000 manufacturing jobs over the last decade, representing a 140.3 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2010. Strong manufacturing job growth in Maury should continue in the near term with the recent General Motor expansion announcement.

• Hamilton County saw manufacturing employment increase by 18.2 percent, representing an addition of 3,798 workers, as Volkswagen expanded its facilities in Chattanooga over the last decade.

• Sumner County added 3,207 new workers (up 67.6 percent), due in part to a strong presence in motor vehicle parts manufacturing.

• Manufacturing employment in McMinn County grew by 80.5 percent, representing an increase of 3,145 new workers, and Blount County saw employment growth of 52.4 percent, representing a net addition of 2,883 workers –Denso added or expanded facilities in both McMinn and Blount over the last decade.

In contrast, 25 counties had employment losses in the manufacturing sector, 7 of which saw contractions of 20 percent or worse. Most notably, Shelby County lost 2,843 jobs over the last 10 years, representing an 8.1 percent contraction.



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3.3. UEMPLOYMENT

Prior to the pandemic recession, the economy was enjoying the longest economic expansion period on record. As a result, unemployment rates in Tennessee and the nation trended downwards over the last ten years. In the wake of the Great Recession, the state unemployment rate rose to a high of 10.5 percent in 2009 but had fallen in each year since. By 2014 it had fallen to 6.6 percent and in 2019 the state’s annual average unemployment rate had declined to an all-time low of 3.4 percent. Figure 3.5 shows this historical trajectory as well as long-term unemployment rate projections for both the state and nation. Over the last ten years, Tennessee’s unemployment rates has tracked its national counterpart very closely, with both sitting below 4 percent for the last few years. Things of course took a turn for the worse during the spring of 2020 as the rapid spread of COVID-19 led to widespread job losses. As a result, the unemployment rate will spike in 2020, reaching 7.5 percent for the state and 8.1 percent for the nation as a whole (annual averages). The state’s unemployment rate is projected to descend quickly over the next two years, falling

to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022, as the economy recovers from the pandemic shock. Though, as we discuss in Chapter 2 and Chapter 4, the economic recovery thus far has been rather uneven, with some economic sectors and population segments seeing swift rebounds while others are still reeling from the pandemic’s economic fallout. Declines in the unemployment rate will then moderate as the economy reverts back to more normal long run growth trends. As a result, the state unemployment rate will fall to 4.0 percent by 2025, and then inch down to 3.9 percent in 2026, where it will rest for the remainder of the long-term forecast horizon.

Figure 3.6 reports non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates across all Tennessee counties for August 2010 and August 2020. In 2010, the state was still dealing with the fallout from the Great Recession, and the state unemployment rate sat at an elevated 9.3 percent. Ten years later, in August of 2020, the state unemployment rate finds itself at a similarly elevated 8.6 percent, as Tennessee, the nation, and the world, continue to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic.

Figure 3.5: Following a Massive Spike in 2020, the Unemployment Rate will Trend Downward through the Rest of the Long-Term Forecast Horizon

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS.



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3.3. UEMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

Source: TN Department of HealthNote: Rate is per 1,000 population

While the state unemployment rate is similar across these two time periods, patterns of unemployment rates across Tennessee counties differ greatly between this current recession and in August 2010. In August of 2010, it was the counties near or containing the larger metro areas with relatively low unemployment, while the rest of the state lagged behind. For example, Williamson County, at 6.4 percent, had the lowest unemployment rate in the state in 2010, and Knox, Davidson, Hamilton, and Rutherford all had unemployment rates below the state average. In 2010, Shelby County was the one exception, with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, which was slightly above the state average. In 2010, there were 63 counties with unemployment rates in the double-digits. The

majority of which were smaller rural counties. Now, fast forward ten years and we’re faced with a new crisis. A health crisis that makes larger, more densely populated areas more vulnerable, and one that has had an outsized adverse impact on the leisure and hospitality sector which is a big economic driver in the state’s larger metro areas. In August 2020, there were three counties with double digit unemployment rates. Two of which contain larger metro areas. Shelby County at 13.4 percent and Davidson County at 10.4 percent. By comparison, some of the smaller more rural counties now have relatively lower unemployment rates than their larger counterparts. These maps illustrate how the pandemic has, at least momentarily, flipped long standing labor market trends.

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

In the long term, population growth is an important driver of overall economic activity by directly impacting the size of the labor force. From 2010 to 2020, Tennessee’s population grew by 8.5 percent, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 0.8 percent per year. This was slightly faster than the 7.4 percent rate of growth (0.7 percent CAGR) recorded for the nation as a whole. Population growth is projected to slow over the next ten years, as Tennessee will only see a 7.4 percent increase and the U.S. population will advance by 6.8 percent. Population change is driven by three components –births, deaths, and net migration (in-migration minus out-migration), two of which (births and deaths), are putting downward pressure on population growth in Tennessee.

Birth rates have been on a downward trend since the Great Recession. In 2007 there were nearly 87 thousand live births in the state, but in 2018 there were fewer than 81 thousand. This is largely due to a dramatic decline in birthrates among younger mothers (under 25 years of age), while birthrates among women over 35 have only risen modestly (see Table 3.2). While birthrates

have fallen across the state, deaths have been on the rise. In 2009 there were roughly 58 thousand deaths recorded in the state, but in 2018 there were over 70 thousand, representing a 20 percent increase. An ageing population is partially to blame for the rising death toll. But accidental deaths, such as those from car crashes and drug overdoses have also risen over time. In 2009 there were 3,148 accidental deaths, whereas in 2018 there were 4,480, representing a 42.3 percent increase.

Counteracting these downward pressures has been net migration, which has seen an uptick in recent years. Figure 3.7 shows the ebbs and

Age of Mother 2007 Birth Rate 2019 Birth Rate

18 to 19 93.4 48.5

20 to 24 128.1 88.6

25 to 34 99.7 96.1

35 to 44 19.8 25.2

All ages 14.2 11.9

Table 3.2: Birthrates in Tennessee Have Fallen For Women in Most Age Groups



3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED

Figure 3.7: Net Migration into Tennessee, a Crucial Component of Population Growth, has Risen in Recent Years

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

flows of total net migration into Tennessee per year over the last two decades. In 2009, the state gained roughly 30 thousand new residents through migration. Conversely, over the last three years (2017 to 2019), the state added an average of 49 thousand new residents per year. However, this is still below peak net migration levels prior to the Great Recession, when Tennessee averaged 57.5 thousand new residents per year (from 2005 to 2007).

Population levels and population growth are good gauges of labor force quantity, an important driver of long term economic growth. However, labor force quality is another important factor. The quantity of labor provides information about how many hours can be worked, while the quality of labor provides insight as to how productive each hour of work can be. In general, workforce quality is difficult to measure, but education and health status are relatively good proxies. A more educated workforce, on average, can produce goods and services more efficiently, while healthier workers can work more intensely and generally miss fewer days of work. On average, more educated workers also earn higher wages and have the ability to purchase more goods and services, thereby

stimulating further economic activity and growth. In general however, Tennesseans have lower educational attainment rates and poorer health status than their national counterparts.

Figure 3.8 shows educational attainment rates for both the state and nation in 2010, 2015, and 2019. Panel A reports the percentage of the population, aged 25 years and older, with a high school degree or higher. Tennessee’s high school attainment rate has consistently trailed that of the nation’s, but the state has caught up significantly over the last ten years. In 2010, Tennessee’s high school attainment rate was 2.3 percentage points below the national average, but by 2019, Tennessee only trailed the nation by 0.6 percentage points. This is an incredibly encouraging trend. Panel B shows the percentage of the population with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Again, Tennessee lags behind the nation and is seeing an upward trend in college attainment rates. However, Tennessee is not making up nearly enough ground to catch up to the national average. In 2010, the state’s college attainment rate was 5.1 percentage points below the national average, and in 2019 the difference is down to 4.4 percentage points.




So again, Tennessee is certainly catching up, but still has a long way to go. Ambitious education initiatives such as the Drive to 55 with a goal of increasing the percentage of Tennesseans with a college degree (associate, Bachelor’s, or advanced degree) or a higher education certificate to 55 percent of the state population by 2025, and the Tennessee Promise which offers two years of tuition-free community college or technical college to Tennessee high school graduates, are big steps in the right direction for improving educational attainment in the state, and if sustained could have

a positive impact on long-term economic growth.Figure 3.9 shows that lower college

attainment rates (Bachelor’s degree or higher) is not unique to Tennessee but is an issue for the southeast region as a whole. Virginia, at 39.6 percent, is the only state in the southeast region with a college attainment rate above the national average of 33.1 percent. Georgia (32.5 percent) and North Carolina (32.3 percent) are not far behind the national average, while Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia have college attainment rates of 25 percent or less.

Figure 3.8: Educational Attainment Rates in Tennessee are Lower than the National Average

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.




Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.

Figure 3.9: Educational Attainment: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

This is important because there is a strong link between educational attainment and labor force engagement, as well as between educational attainment and earnings. Therefore, any improvements in educational attainment can have a lasting positive impact on economic growth. Using national data, Figure 3.10 shows that those with higher educational attainment levels have higher earnings, on average, and Figure 3.11 shows that unemployment rates are lower among those with higher levels of education. This relationship has been especially important during the pandemic, when rates of unemployment rose rapidly across the country. In April, unemployment rates shot up across the country and across the entire educational attainment distribution. However, the rate of job loss was much more extreme among those with lower educational attainment levels. Among those with less than a high school diploma, the national unemployment rate shot up to 20.3 percent in April (from 8.1 percent in

March), and for those with a high school degree but no college experience, the unemployment rate went from 4.8 percent in March to 17.0 percent in April. By comparison, unemployment rates among those with a Bachelor’s or graduate degree remained below 10 percent during the height of the pandemic recession (see Figure 3.12). Thus, education provided a bit of a buffer from the negative employment shock of the pandemic.

The overall health status of a population is another important component of workforce quality. Unfortunately, however, Tennessee ranks poorly in this regard as well. According to the 2019 annual report of American Health Rankings, a state-by-state analysis of the relative health of populations across the U.S., Tennessee ranks 44th in overall health status, ahead of only Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Poor health status in Tennessee is due to a number of factors, including a high prevalence of smoking, obesity, and diabetes, as well as relatively




Figure 3.10: Median Earnings are Higher Among those with Higher Educational Attainment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.

Figure 3.11: Unemployment Rates are Lower Among those with Higher Educational Attainment


high mortality rates related to cancer, cardiovascular disease, and drug usage. This has also become especially important during the pandemic, as these are all risk factors associated with more severe COVID-19 cases which are more likely to lead to hospitalization and death.

Figure 3.13, shows how obesity rates (as

measured by a body mass index (BMI) above 30) in Tennessee have changed over time, and how they compare to the national average. Since 2011, obesity rates have unfortunately trended upward across the nation. However, the obesity rate in Tennessee has consistently been higher than the U.S. average. In 2019, 36.5 percent of the state’s adult population




Figure 3.12: In April, Unemployment Rates Rose Nationwide, but the Spike was Much More Pronounced for Those with Lower Educational Attainment Levels

U.S. unemployment rates for the population 25 years and older

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted.

had a BMI above 30, compared to 32.4 percent for the nation as a whole. In 2019, Tennessee also had the eighth highest adult smoking rate in the country, at 19.9 percent. Encouragingly, the state has seen a downward trend in tobacco use over the last decade, as the rate was as high as 24.9 percent in 2012 (see Figure 3.14). Furthermore, a lower percentage of Tennesseans have health care coverage than the national average. Figure 3.15 presents a time series of the percentage of people in the state and the nation with health care coverage from 2011 to 2019. These data show a large increase in coverage starting in 2014 at both the state and national levels, following the first Affordable Care Act open enrollment period. However, in every year Tennessee had a lower percentage of its population with health insurance. In 2019, 85.6 percent of Tennesseans had some form of health insurance, while 89.0 percent had coverage for the nation as a whole.

Tennessee also had the 9th worst infant

mortality rate in the country at 7.4 deaths per 1,000 births (compared to 5.8 per 1,000 for the nation) in 2017, and the 13th highest drug overdose rate at 26.6 deaths per 100,000 population (versus 21.7 for the nation). Finally, Figure 3.16 presents prevalence data for Tennessee and the nation on a number of serious health issues. The prevalence of all eight serious health conditions is higher in Tennessee than the nation. For example, 13.8 percent of Tennesseans were told by a doctor that they have diabetes versus 10.7 percent nationwide, and 25 percent of Tennesseans suffer from depression, versus 19.9 percent for the nation as a whole.

Despite these poor health metrics, Tennessee has still been a strong economic force over the last decade. However, these metrics reveal areas where the state can improve. And gains in both healthcare and health outcomes could lead to a stronger, healthier, and more productive workforce in Tennessee.




Figure 3.13: Obesity Rates Have Risen Faster in Tennessee

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2019.

Figure 3.14: Smoking Rates in Tennessee Are Well Above the National Average, But Have Fallen in Recent Years





Figure 3.15: Fewer Tennesseans Have Health Care Coverage


Figure 3.16: More Tennesseans Are Living with Serious Health Conditions




3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT

In both Tennessee and the nation, nominal personal income grew by 4.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2010 and 2019, with accelerated growth in the early part of the decade –as the economy recovered from the Great Recession –coupled with decent gains in the second half of the decade.

In 2020, faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, personal income is still projected to advance by a robust 4.2 percent in Tennessee and an even stronger 5.8 percent for the nation. These solid gains are due entirely to strong growth in federal transfer payments through enhanced unemployment insurance payments and stimulus checks which have helped keep parts of the economy afloat during the pandemic. During the second quarter of 2020, federal transfer payments grew by an astounding annualized rate of 853.9 percent in the U.S. and by 463.0 percent for the state (as compared to the previous quarter). All other major components of personal income will shrink for the year.

Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee’s nominal personal income is projected to grow by 4.3 percent per year (CAGR), slightly ahead of the 4.2 percent rate of growth projected for the nation as a whole. During this period, wage and salary income, the largest component of personal income, will grow by a solid 4.5 percent per year, due to accelerated job growth in the first half of the decade, as the labor market recovers from the pandemic recession. Transfer payments will also see decent growth over the next decade, advancing by 3.0 percent per year, as Baby Boomers continue to retire and collect social security payments.

In 2019, per capita income in Tennessee was $48,688, and was only 86.3 percent of the national average. From 2020 to 2030, per capita income is projected to advance by 3.5 percent per year (CAGR), matching the compound annual growth rate for the nation as a whole. As a result, state per capita income will lag behind the national average throughout the long term forecast horizon. Because the state starts with a lower level of per capita income, it must actually realize stronger growth rates to ultimately catch up with the nation.

Per capita income growth varies widely across the state. Figure 3.17 reports personal income growth (compound annual growth rates) for

all Tennessee counties between 2010 and 2018. During this period there were only 12 counties to enjoy stronger per capita income gains than the national average of 3.8 percent. Pickett County, saw the strongest growth, as per capita income went from $27,286 in 2010 to $39,686 in 2018, representing 4.79 percent growth per year. More impressively however was Williamson County, which registered a slightly lower 4.77 percent compound annual growth rate, but reflected much larger average income gains. In Williamson County, average income went from $65,353 in 2010 to an outsized $94,872 in 2018. As a result, Williamson County registered the 22nd highest average income across all counties in the nation. Davidson County had the second highest per capita income level in the state, at $66,060, which ranks them at 136th in the nation (out of 3,113 U.S. counties). By comparison, there were 43 Tennessee counties with per capita income growth below 3 percent for the 9-year period. Of note, Shelby County registered a 2.9 percent compound annual growth rate, while the other 42 counties were largely smaller and rural. Five counties recorded growth at 2 percent or less per year –Lake, Crocket, Stewart, Montgomery, and Trousdale. Trousdale saw the weakest income growth during this period, with growth of 0.3 percent per year from 2010 to 2018. While Lake County had the lowest per capita income level among all Tennessee counties. In 2018, average income in Lake County was $23,230 per person, which was also the 11th lowest per capita income level among all U.S. counties.

Starting in 2010, the state has seen ten consecutive years of positive economic growth, as measured by real GDP. On a compound annual basis, Tennessee’s GDP grew by 2.4 percent per year between 2010 and 2019, and slightly outpaced the 2.3 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. Looking ahead ten years, real GDP in Tennessee is projected to advance at a similar rate of 2.4 percent per year between 2020 and 2030. This is slightly slower than the national growth projection of 2.6 percent per year, but in line with the state’s historical trend. Over the next decade, manufacturing output in Tennessee will expand by 2.4 percent per year (CAGR). This is much faster



3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED

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than the projected 0.5 percent rate of employment growth for the state’s manufacturing sector (see Table 3.1) as productivity gains will lead to more output with fewer workers.

For both Tennessee and the nation, economic growth during the early part of the decade will largely be shaped by the pandemic, which will lead to a sharp contraction in real GDP growth in 2020 followed by stronger rates of growth in 2021 and 2022 as the economy recovers. However, real GDP in Tennessee will not reach its pre-pandemic

2019 level until the end of 2022. Furthermore, the pandemic will lead to a more long run and persistent drop in “potential GDP.” Figure 3.18 compares the state’s GDP trajectory from a pre-pandemic forecast (the 2020 Economic Report to the Governor) with this year’s forecast, and shows that the new predicted path of real GDP will be below the pre-pandemic level through the entire long-term forecast horizon, as some economic activity is permanently lost to the pandemic shock.

Finally, Table 3.3 presents data on the number

Total Manufacturing

NumberGrowth (%)

NumberGrowth (%)

Area 2010 2018 2010 2018

United States (total) 7,396,628 7,912,405 7.0 299,982 290,092 -3.3

Grand Division

East Tennessee 47,291 48,604 2.8 2,330 2,213 -5.0

Middle Tennessee 52,421 58,201 11.0 2,330 2,371 1.8

West Tennessee 31,690 30,745 -3.0 1,301 1,159 -10.9

Tennessee (state total)* 131,582 138,269 5.1 5,961 5,745 -3.6

Table 3.3: Total and Manufacturing Business Establishments, 2010 and 2018

*State total may include establishments where the county is unknown.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns.

Figure 3.18: A Persistent Loss in Potential GDP for the State

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.




of business establishments operating in Tennessee as well as each Tennessee region in both 2010 and 2018. In Tennessee, the number of business establishments grew by 5.0 percent over the last nine years, representing a net increase of 6,352 new establishments. This was slower than the 7.0 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. The positive rate of growth in Tennessee was driven almost entirely by gains in the Middle Tennessee region, where the number of business establishments expanded by a robust 11.0 percent since 2010. By comparison, the number of establishments grew by only 2.8 percent in East

Tennessee and fell by 3.0 percent in West Tennessee. While business establishments, as a whole,

grew over the last nine years, the number of manufacturing establishments in the state fell during the same time period. From 2010 to 2018, the state saw a net loss of 217 manufacturing firms, representing a 3.6 percent reduction. Middle Tennessee was the only region to see any growth in the number of manufacturing firms, adding 41 firms over the last nine years (a 1.8 percent increase), while West Tennessee saw a significant 10.9 percent drop, and in East Tennessee the number of manufacturing establishments shrunk by 5.0 percent.

3.6. FORECAST AT A GLANCE

• Between 2020 and 2030, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will advance by a compound annual growth rate of 2.4 percent per year, slightly behind the projected pace of national output growth.

• Nonfarm employment is projected to advance at an annual rate of 1.3 percent per year over the next decade, adding 429.7 thousand workers to the state economy. A large portion of these gains will be realized in the first half of the decade as the economy recovers from the pandemic recession.

• The state’s annualized unemployment rate will shoot up to 7.5 percent in 2020 but will quickly trend downwards thereafter, falling to 5.2 percent in 2021 and as low as 3.9 percent by the end of the decade.

• Nominal personal income will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.3 percent over the next 10 years, and per capita income in Tennessee will reach $71,221 by 2030.

CHAPTER 4 | COVID-19 and the Tennessee Economy


CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY

4.1. INTRODUCTION

In this Chapter —

4.1. Introduction

4.2. COVID-19andtheLaborMarket

4.3. TheCOVID-19PandemicandPublic Assistance Program Participation

4.4. Taxes During the Pandemic Sales Taxes Corporate Taxes Motor Vehicle Taxes Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes

4.5. COVID-19andEducation

4.6. COVID-19andEarly-StageBusiness Formation

4.7. FederalStimulusduringthePandemic

4.8. Conclusion

4.9. References

As noted in previous chapters, this Report focuses on some of the economic impacts of COVID-19. The pandemic, however, is a health crisis, and the loss of life, possible long-term health effects related to COVID-19, as well as the physical and mental toll placed on frontline work-ers cannot be overstated. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Two days later the U.S. declared a national emergency, as the number of confirmed U.S. cases had grown into the thousands in a matter of weeks. By this time, there had already been over 80,000 confirmed cases in China and over 10,000 cases in Italy. Since then, the virus has taken hold of the nation and the world. As of December 7, 2020, there have been nearly 15.0 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and over 280 thousand deaths. Like the nation, Tennessee has grappled with the virus and accompanying fallout, with over 400 thousand confirmed cases and nearly 5,000 COVID-related deaths in the state as of December 7, 2020.

In the spring, many states, including Tennessee,

issued stay-at-home orders and social distancing mandates, stopping all non-essential activities in an effort to limit the spread of COVID-19. As a result, businesses were closed, large public events were can-celed, and school years were cut short or went virtu-al. These closings, coupled with fear of contracting the virus, led to a rapid decline in economic activity. The sudden and severe drop off in economic activity would likely have been even worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavi-rus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). From an economic perspective, it seems that the economic low point occurred in April, and the state and nation have seen positive economic growth in each month since. However, daily COVID cases and deaths have surged in recent months, and the remaining provisions of the CARES Act are set to expire, leaving the economic recovery in a pre-carious position. While the winter looks bleak, the recent FDA approval of one COVID-19 vaccine and successful results on late-stage trials for additional vaccines provides a glimmer of hope. However, with

COVID-19 and the Tennessee Economy | CHAPTER 4



a limited initial supply and distributional hurdles abound, any semblance of normalcy is likely still many months away.

This chapter provides a retrospective as to how the pandemic has affected the Tennessee economy thus far. The year 2020 has been heavily defined by the pandemic and pandemic-related disruptions. As a result, the COVID economy has already been discussed at great length in Chapter 1, from a national perspective, and Chapter 2, from the state’s perspective. In this chapter, we provide additional context into some of those topics, in-cluding a large focus on how the labor market has fared so far as well as state tax revenue collections. We also provide brief discussions on social assis-tance programs in Tennessee, early-stage business formation patterns, and implications for education and learning during the pandemic.

In building on the labor market effects from Section 2.2 of Chapter 2, this chapter provides an in-depth review of weekly trends in unemployment insurance (UI) claims during the pandemic. We also take a deeper dive into the national data which uncover issues of long-run unemployment (un-employed for 27 weeks or more) as well as show how some subpopulations faced a far harsher labor market shock than others (in particular, females, Black and Hispanic workers, and younger workers). Some explanations for these differing effects are provided in Section 4.2.

Throughout 2020, UI benefits have been one of the largest and most publicized public assistance program, providing much needed relief for those who lost their jobs. However, Tennessee expanded or modified a number of other public assistance programs, such as Families First and the Supple-mentary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as Food Stamps). A brief expla-nation of these relief efforts and their respective participation rates is provided in Section 4.3.

In addition to these public assistance pro-grams, the state government also made a number of policy decisions in an effort to provide flexi-bility to businesses during the pandemic. From a tax perspective, the state pushed back the filing deadlines or due dates on a variety of tax payments

including (but not limited to) corporate income taxes, the professional privilege tax, and motor vehicle registration renewal fees. For the month of April, the state also waived liquor-by-the-drink taxes on drinks sold by restaurants for off-premises consumption. In addition, the state provided some flexibility for businesses deciding whether to renew their business license. Businesses are required to submit an annual report every year to renew their license. Most annual reports are due on April 1, and failure to file usually leads to an administra-tive dissolution in August. However, this year, any procedural dissolutions were delayed until October. Most of these policy changes will have little effect on tax revenues or business filings for the 2020 year as a whole, but did give businesses the oppor-tunity to shift some of their spending and decision making within the year as needed.

In Section 4.4 we provide an in-depth review of state tax collections during the pandemic. Un-like in previous recessions, state sales tax revenues remained relatively strong during the pandemic, as consumers dramatically shifted their spending pat-terns in completely different ways than in previous economic downturns. Most notably, consumers have spent far less on in-person services, many of which are not sales-taxable in the state, and have diverted much of their spending to the purchase of goods, which are taxable. Altered consumer spending patterns have been a big feature of the COVID economy, and as a result, they are also discussed in Chapter 1 (Section 1.1) and Chapter 2 (Section 2.2). Those previous discussions were mostly focused on the consumer’s perspective, whereas in Section 4.4 we discuss their implications for state tax revenues.

In Section 4.5 we discuss how COVID-19 has af-fected public education, specifically, through the shift to online instruction, and in Section 4.6, we provide a brief discussion on early-stage business formations during the pandemic. Finally, in Section 4.7 we turn to the national economy and provide details on some of the aggressive stimulus actions taken by the federal government, including through the CARES Act and monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).

Prior to the pandemic, the state economy



4.2. COVID-19 AND THE LABOR MARKET

was supported by an extremely tight labor mar-ket. As of January 2020, there were roughly 350 thousand more nonfarm workers in Tennessee than there were during the pre-Great Recession peak, and the state unemployment rate had fallen as low as 3.3 percent in late-2019 and early-2020. Things of course took a turn for the worse in the spring of 2020 due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, which led to the temporary closings of many businesses and schools and radically altered consumer-spending patterns. As a result, many businesses laid off or furloughed workers and the state unemployment rate shot up to 15.5 percent in April, representing a 12.2 percentage point increase in a one-month span. In that one month period, 392.8 thousand Tennesseans lost their jobs, and more than 20 million jobs were lost nationwide. Job losses were felt in every broad sector of the state economy, but the leisure and hospitality sector was hit the hardest early on. Figure 4.1 shows that among the nearly 400 thousand jobs lost between March and April, nearly half came from the leisure and hospitality sector, where over 155 thousand jobs vanished in just one month, as restaurants closed, travel froze, and concerts and sporting event were cancelled.

While the leisure and hospitality sector was hit the hardest, all sectors of the state economy faced job losses in April. In addition to the leisure and hospitality sector, two other sectors saw negative job growth in excess of 10 percent: manufactur-ing (down 17.7 percent, a loss of 62.3 thousand jobs), and professional and business services (down 10.5 percent, losing 45.2 thousand work-ers). Employment in the trade, transportation and utilities sector also saw steep losses (down 6.6 percent and lost 43.3 thousand jobs), as well as in education and health services (down 8.5 percent, a loss of 37.8 thousand jobs). Employment in the state’s government sector also fell by 14.4 thou-sand, while job losses in the information, financial activities, and mining, logging, and construction sectors were much less severe.

Since April, the state economy has seen positive month-over-month job growth but there were still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were in February (Figure 4.2). Furthermore, Figure 4.3 shows that job gains have slowed con-siderably since the early parts of the summer. In May and June, Tennessee added a combined 208.1 thousand workers back to its employment rolls, but in the four following months (July through Octo-

Figure 4.1: The Bulk of Initial Job Losses Came From the Leisure and Hospitality SectorTennessee Nonfarm Employment Growth, March 2020 to April 2020




4.2. COVID-19 AND THE LABOR MARKET, CONTINUED

Figure 4.2: Despite Positive Job Growth in Recent Months, Nonfarm Job Levels are Still Well Below their Pre-Pandemic Peak

Total Nonfarm Jobs in Tennessee, October 2019 to October 2020


Figure 4.3: Monthly Job Gains Have Slowed Since June





Figure 4.4: Employment in Most Tennessee Sectors has yet to Claw Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels


ber) only 64 thousand more jobs were added. July was particularly abysmal, with a pickup of only 400 workers. These figures suggest that the economic recovery might be losing steam.

Figure 4.4 shows the net change in jobs by sector during the height of the pandemic recession (February to April) as well as the ensuing months (April to October). Since April, the leisure and hos-pitality sector has added 113.4 thousand workers back to its rolls, but job levels are only around 88 percent of their pre-pandemic February level. The manufacturing sector, which lost 65.8 thousand workers in the spring and was the second hardest hit sector in the state, has only regained 40.8 thou-sand workers since then. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector was also hit hard by the pan-demic, as many consumers stayed home. Similarly, the two other major service sectors (professional and business services and education and health ser-vices) faced significant job losses. Most sectors of the state’s economy have seen job gains since the

spring, but as of October, financial activities is the only sector to have fully recovered to pre-pandemic employment levels.

Since the April high of 15.5 percent, Ten-nessee’s unemployment rate has largely trended downwards, falling to 6.5 percent in September, before inching up to 7.4 percent in October (see Figure 4.5). This October increase was largely due to an increase in the labor force (measured as the number of people employed plus the number of people unemployed but actively looking for work), as there were more people looking for work in October than in September. To be eligible for UI benefits in the state, claimants are required to make weekly work searches. This requirement was temporarily suspended during the pandemic, but was reinstated as of October 4. Thus, the rising number of people in the labor force, and accompa-nying unemployment rate increase, is likely driv-en, to some extent, by the newly reinstated work search requirement.

February to April April to October



Although the headline unemployment rate has been falling, long-term unemployment has been on the rise across the nation. Figure 4.6 presents national data on the percentage of unemployed people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more. As of November, 36.9 percent of the 10.7 million unemployed have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. As the pandemic has persisted, this number continues to rise rapidly, and is quickly approaching the previous peak of 45 percent in the wake of the Great Recession. This is a serious issue as those who have been out of work for a half a year or more are more likely to have depleted their savings. Furthermore, unemployment insurance benefits in Tennessee (and most states) are only available for a maximum of 26 weeks. The CARES Act offers an additional 13 weeks of federally funded UI benefits through Pandemic Unemploy-ment Assistance (PUA), but this is set to expire at the end of 2020 (as of this writing). Therefore, the currently 36.9 percent dealing with long term unemployment have likely already exhausted their UI benefits or will do so soon.

National data on job losses paint a similarly bleak picture. Table 4.1 provides a breakdown of unemployment classifications through the first 11 months of 2020. In April, when unemployment peaked at 23.1 million, 78.3 percent of those job losses were classified as temporary layoffs and only 8.7 percent were permanent. However, as the pan-demic recession has persisted, the share of perma-nent job losses has grown while the percentage on temporary layoff has shrunk, as many firms have restructured, downsized, or closed due to weak con-sumer demand. As of November, the percentage of permanent job losses has more than quadrupled, to 34.9 percent, while the percentage on temporary layoff has fallen to 25.7 percent. This suggests that some of those who were initially on temporary lay-off have since returned to work, while others have since learned that what was once a temporary layoff has since become a permanent job loss.

Figure 4.7 presents county level unemploy-ment rates (not seasonally adjusted) across the state for the months of March, April and October 2020. In April, Sevier County, which relies heavily


Figure 4.5: Unemployment Rates Spiked in the Spring, but have Largely Trended Downward Since





Figure 4.6: Despite a Declining Unemployment Rate, Long Term Unemployment is Rising Rapidly Percentage of Total Unemployed (Nationally) Who Have Been Jobless for 27 Weeks or More


Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Unemployment Level 5,892 5,787 7,140 23,078 20,985 17,750 16,338 13,550 12,580 11,061 10,735

Total Job Losers 2,665 2,723 3,946 20,626 18,291 14,272 12,924 10,307 9,135 7,712 7,485

On temporary layoff 742 801 1,848 18,063 15,343 10,565 9,225 6,160 4,637 3,205 2,764

Permanent 1,289 1,279 1,456 2,000 2,295 2,883 2,877 3,411 3,756 3,684 3,743

Temporary job completed 634 644 643 563 653 824 823 736 742 823 978

As Percentage of Total Unemployed

On temporary layoff 12.6% 13.8% 25.9% 78.3% 73.1% 59.5% 56.5% 45.5% 36.9% 29.0% 25.7%

Permanent 21.9% 22.1% 20.4% 8.7% 10.9% 16.2% 17.6% 25.2% 29.9% 33.3% 34.9%

Table 4.1: The Percentage of Permanent Job Losses Continues to Rise

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Levels data are in thousands.




Figure 4.7: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, March, April, and October 2020

Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.




on tourism, had the highest unemployment rate in the state at an astounding 29.1 percent. This was an incredibly large and fast jump compared to the 3.5 percent unemployment rate from just one month prior. Unemployment in Sevier has eased to a large degree, and had fallen to 5.6 percent in October. Eleven additional counties had unem-ployment rates equal to or above 20 percent in April, all of which had unemployment rates of 5.1 percent or less just one month prior. This is another example of the speed with which the eco-nomic carnage hit the state. In April, unemploy-ment levels were elevated across the state, and no single county was unscathed. Fayette and Weakly had the lowest unemployment rates in April, at 9.5 percent, but even these were large jumps com-pared to the sub-3.5 percent rates from one month prior. Similarly, the larger metro areas, which in years past have had the more vibrant economies, were hit hard. Davidson County registered an unemployment rate of 16.1 percent in April, while Hamilton (14.4 percent), Knox (12.9 percent), and Shelby (13.2 percent) were not far behind. Unemployment rates have fallen remarkably since April, but as of October are still well above their pre-pandemic levels in all counties. Furthermore, unemployment rates in some of the larger metro areas, such as Davidson, Hamilton, and Shelby County remain relatively high, as counties with higher population densities and those reliant on the service sector remain particularly vulnerable to the ongoing pandemic. This issue is most glaring in Shelby County, where the unemployment rate in October was still at an elevated 11.0 percent (compared to 3.7 percent in March).

Thus far, we have focused on how the labor market as a whole has fared during the pandem-ic. However, from an economic perspective, the pandemic recession has hit some sub-populations harder than others. For a deeper dive, we next ex-amine how rates of unemployment varied across various sub-groups. Figures 4.8-4.10 present national unemployment rates by gender, race/eth-nicity, and age groups. While these data are only available at the national level, they provide an im-

1 https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm

portant perspective as to how the pandemic had differential labor market effects across various sub populations. Since 2015, national unemploy-ment rates for men and women did not differ a great deal (Figure 4.8). However, in April, when unemployment rates spiked, the unemployment rate among men hit 13.5 percent, while the female unemployment rate rose to an even higher 16.2 percent. There are a number of possible expla-nations for the larger increase amongst females. First, the responsibility of childcare falls more heavily to mothers in the U.S., on average, and when schools closed in the spring, more women may have felt compelled to leave their jobs to watch their children and help with their online education, or had less flexibility with their work hours. Additionally, a larger share of women work in the service sector, which was hit hardest during the initial pandemic shock, and could have there-fore led to a larger share of female job losses. In 2019, 57.6 percent of all service workers were women; with women accounting for 71.3 percent of all restaurant wait-staff nationwide, hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks were 74.6 percent female, and recreation and fitness workers were 63.3 percent female.1

The unequal share of job losses was not only seen across genders, but also across race/ethnicity and age groups, as Figure 4.9 shows that unemployment rates across the Black and Hispanic populations rose at a significantly high-er rate than among the White or Asian popula-tions. Recent research form the Urban Institute finds that Black and Hispanic workers are more likely to have jobs that must be done in person, which if deemed non-essential were more likely to have been shut down in the spring (Dubay et al., 2020). Furthermore, in-person work (essen-tial and non-essential) leads to greater exposure to the virus and a higher probability of trans-mitting it to household members. This of course has potentially serious consequences for their health but also could have led to a higher pro-portion of Black and Hispanic workers missing work due to illness.



Figure 4.8: National Unemployment Rate by Gender – 16 Years and Older



Figure 4.9: National Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity – 16 Years and Older





Figure 4.10 reports unemployment rates by age group, and shows that the youngest cohort, those aged 16 through 24 years, were hit the hardest, with unemployment rates peaking at 27.4 percent in April. This was nearly twice as large as the spike seen among 25 to 34 year olds, which peaked at 14.5 percent in April.

Education, which we showed in Chapter 3, is positively correlated with earnings and labor force attachment, provided a cushion against the nega-tive employment shocks of the pandemic. Figure 4.11 shows that the national unemployment rate spiked in April for workers across all educational attainment levels, but the increase was both more severe and showed greater persistence for those with less education. Among those (25 years and older) without a high school diploma, the unemployment rate shot up to an astounding 20.9 percent in April. It has since fallen in the ensuing months, but is still at an elevated 8.9 percent as of October. Similarly, for those with a high school diploma but no college experience, the unemployment rate rose to 17.0 percent in April and has since fallen to 7.8 percent in

October. By comparison, for those with a Bachelor’s degree, the unemployment rate never exceeded 10 percent during the pandemic, and was back down to 4.6 percent as of October. Moreover, for those with a graduate degree, unemployment was down to 3.2 percent as of October.

State-level data from Opportunity Insights also show that the spring job losses and ensuing recovery were not equally distributed. Figure 4.12 illustrates that in Tennessee, job losses were much more severe among those in the lower wage bracket, while jobs in the highest wage bracket were hit less hard and are nearly back to their pre-pandemic levels. In April, nearly one-third of all low-wage jobs (lower than $27,000 per year) were lost in Tennessee, compared to 16.1 percent of the middle wage jobs (between 27,000 & $59,000 per year), and only 7.7 percent of the high wage jobs (above $60,000 per year). Further-more, employment levels among middle-wage and high-wage workers are nearly back to their pre-pan-demic levels from January 2020, as office workers were more easily able to transition to working from home. However, among low wage workers, employ-

Figure 4.10: National Unemployment Rate by Age Bracket





Figure 4.11: Unemployment was More Widespread Among Those with Lower Educational Attainment National Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment – 25 Years and Older

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Not seasonally adjusted

Figure 4.12: Job Losses in Tennessee were More Severe and More Persistent Among Low Wage Workers

Source: OpportunityInsights, https://tracktherecovery.org/Note: Low wage is less than $27k. Middle wage is between $27K and $60K. High wage is above $60K.



ment levels are still 17 percent below their January 2020 levels, as sectors with a greater share of lower paying jobs such as leisure and hospitality and retail trade have been slower to recover.

In normal economic times, we generally view the monthly releases of employment/un-employment data, which come with a one month lag, as the most up-to-date view of the labor market. However, during the pandemic, the eco-nomic landscape changed with such violence and swiftness that the employment data were often out of date before they were even released. The best example is the March jobs report (released in April), which estimated that Tennessee’s unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3 percent, and suggests that the adverse economic effects of the pandemic did not start until April. However, we know that COVID-19 started to rapidly spread in March and high-fre-quency data on weekly UI claims show that the accompanying economic carnage commenced in mid-to-late March as well. This is not captured in the monthly employment data for March,

which surveys over 650 thousand business establishments nationwide about how many workers are on their payrolls through the 12th of each month, because the economic effects of the pandemic did not start until after the 12th of March. For this reason, we now turn to the weekly UI claims data. Figure 4.13 presents initial claims for both Tennessee and the nation, and shows that initial claims ballooned during the third week of March. Prior to the pandem-ic, the state was generally processing around two to three thousand new UI claims per week and the nation processed around 200 thousand. However, at the onset of the pandemic, new UI claims rose more than 10-fold, to an astound-ing 38,000 in Tennessee and 2.9 million across the nation (during the week ending on March 21). For perspective, in Tennessee this was 23.8 percent higher than the Great Recession peak (30,753 in January of 2009). This however, was only the beginning. The following week new claims grew to 92,500 in Tennessee, and then topped out at 112 thousand during the first week


Figure 4.13: Initial Claims Skyrocketed in the Spring but have Trended Downwards Since

Sources: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and TN Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Not seasonally adjusted.




of April. New UI claims for the nation followed a similar pattern, growing from roughly 250 thousand during the second week of March to more than 2.9 million the following week and up to 6.2 million during the first week of April. The speed at which new claims rose and the levels to which they rose were staggering and unprece-dented. For perspective, between mid-March and mid-November, a span of 36 weeks, more than 915 thousand initial UI claims were filed in Ten-nessee. By comparison, there were roughly 790 thousand new UI claims filed during the entirety of the Great Recession, which lasted 81 weeks.

New claims have come down over the en-suing months, but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. In the third week of No-vember, there were 7,295 new claims in Tennessee and nearly 828 thousand across the nation. This is well below the spring peak, but initial UI claims are still tracking at recessionary levels, and are more than three times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Thus, while the unprecedented rate of job losses seen in the spring seems to have subsided,

many Tennesseans are still losing their jobs or getting their work hours cut enough to induce them to apply for UI benefits.

At the onset of the pandemic, the bulk of new UI claims came from individuals working in the leisure and hospitality sector (see Figure 4.14), as restaurants closed down, hotels were left nearly empty, and large entertainment events were cancelled. However, as the pandemic and ac-companying recession have entered into its ninth month, the distribution of UI claims has become more evenly distributed (Figure 4.15).

The number of new UI claims provides a good measure of how many people first lost their jobs each week. Conversely, the number of continued UI claims indicates how many people are still unemployed. Figure 4.16 shows that while the number of new UI claims started to come down in April, the number of continued claims did not start to fall until May, after peak-ing at 343,212 during the week ending on May 2. But even then they only fell by a few percentage points per week. Continued UI claims in Tennes-

Figure 4.14: At the Onset of the Pandemic Nearly Half of All Initial UI Claims Came from the Leisure and

Hospitality SectorDistribution of initial UI claims in Tennessee during the week

ending on 3/21/2020

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Figure 4.15 Nine Months into the Pandemic Recession, Total Initial UI Claims are More Evenly Distributed

Across SectorsDistribution of total initial UI claims in Tennessee from the

weeks ending on 3/21/2020 through 11/21/2020




see remained stubbornly high through the sum-mer and early fall months. In October, continued claims started falling more rapidly, including a 27.8 percent drop during the first week of Octo-ber as the job search requirement was reinstated after being suspended during the pandemic. As of November 14, continued claims sit at 56,609. This is a huge drop-off compared to the spring peak, but is still well above pre-pandemic levels –from 2016 to February 2020, the state averaged around 19,000 per week.

Figure 4.17 shows that a relatively large por-tion of these continued claims are coming from the service sector. During the week ending on November 14, professional and business services accounted for the largest proportion of continued claims, at 21 percent. The leisure and hospitality sector accounted for 15.0 percent of all continued UI claims in the state. Trade, manufacturing, and education and health services also had relatively high shares of continued claims.


Figure 4.16: Continued UI Claims in Tennessee Have Come Down Considerably in Recent Weeks, But Still Remain Well Above Historic Levels


Figure 4.17: Continued UI Claims Still Heavily Lean Towards the Service Sectors

Distribution of continued UI claims during the week ending on 11/14/2020


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4.3. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION

One of the key functions of government is to help smooth out the effects of macroeconomic swings. This typically happens through a combi-nation of monetary policy, especially with interest rate changes enacted by the Fed, and fiscal policy, usually involving a combination of tax and spending policies at the federal and state levels. The gov-ernmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic consisted of a series of fiscal policies ranging from stimulus checks sent to income-eligible households to important modifications to several prominent public assistance programs.

In this section, we survey the effects of the pandemic on public assistance programs. We dis-cuss how eligibility and benefit rules were changed to provide additional support, and then explore the extent to which eligible households responded to those changes by taking up the benefits. To be sure, the well-publicized extensions of unemploy-ment benefits and other programs helped mitigate the pandemic’s recessionary impacts. But the participation response was far from uniform across the various programs.

The most significant public program response to the pandemic was the dramatic expansion of UI benefits (details of which are discussed in Section 4.7). The purpose of this policy action was to alle-viate the strain on households suffering from what was hoped to be a short-term (but dramatic) inter-ruption in economic activity. The UI expansion was an important supplement to the various loan programs that were provided to employers in order to help them maintain payroll and avoid closure or bankruptcy throughout the pandemic.

Recognizing that the above actions were nec-essarily targeted to those who had jobs or who had lost jobs that were protected by the UI system, the federal and state governments also pursued a vari-ety of temporary expansions of other key public assistance programs. This was intended to target additional economic stimulus to the lowest-income families in society.

Tennessee’s response included short-term sup-plements to the Families First and SNAP programs. Families First is Tennessee’s traditional cash assis-tance welfare program, operating within the federal

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. It provides cash and non-cash benefits (e.g., child care support, education and training sup-ports, and other services needed to support the pur-suit of gainful employment) and requires a certain level of work activity. Participants may only receive Families First benefits for up to 60 total months in their lifetime, except in the case of various hardships that qualify one for an exemption. SNAP is the program formerly known as Food Stamps, provid-ing important nutritional supports in the form of an Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) card that can only be used for food purchases.

Tennessee’s supplement to the Families First program, known as the Emergency Cash Assis-tance program, provided two months of cash payments to lower-income families that had been employed as of March 11, 2020, but had lost their job or at least half of their income due to the pandemic. Qualifying households had to have at least one child under the age of 18 (or a pregnant woman) and also had to meet income and finan-cial resource requirements. Benefits amounted to $500/$750/$1000 for households with 1-2/3-4/5+ individuals.

This cash benefit was further supplement-ed by special EBT benefits provided to families with school-aged children who qualified for free or reduced school lunches. The purpose of this additional benefit was to replace the nutritional assistance that was lost when schools closed in the spring. Another temporary program was enacted to provide child care assistance to essential workers who were no longer able to keep their children in school while they went to work.

Turning to SNAP, Tennessee enacted several federal provisions intended to provide additional (and more easily accessible) food support to eligi-ble families impacted by the pandemic. First and most importantly, all SNAP recipients were auto-matically eligible for the maximum program benefit for April and May. Second, a variety of other changes were made to rules and processes govern-ing the determination of eligibility, making it easier for families to apply for and receive benefits.

While these short-term program responses



4.3. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION, CONTINUED

might appear to be aggressive and expensive, it is important to note that most of them were intend-ed to be funded out of a significant accumulation of unspent federal TANF funds. Thus, it was possible to funnel significant funds to eligible families without the state having to enact new taxes or incur new debt. Of course, the extent to which they have been expensive depends entirely on the extent to which eligible households took up the new benefits.

Several elements impact an eligible family’s de-cision to take up public assistance. Even if income falls below the eligibility threshold, some families might choose to tap their own savings or other local resources to make ends meet. Some might have a general aversion to receiving public assistance, or might be worried about social stigma. Others might be confused about program rules, or simply unaware of the available benefits. Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, some might have been able to access the expanded UI benefits earlier in the pandemic. This could have made the other benefits

2 Monthly state-by-state TANF data can be accessed at https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/ofa/fy2020_tanf_caseload_trec.pdf.

like TANF and SNAP impossible (if the UI bene-fits made a household income-ineligible) or at least relatively less valuable, especially given the various requirements associated with receiving them.

While the array of program modifications might lead one to expect a dramatic increase in pub-lic assistance program participation, the most recent data provide an entirely different story. To be sure, receipt of UI benefits spiked immediately and has remained relatively high throughout the pandemic period (see Figure 4.13 and Figure 4.16 in Section 4.2). Conversely, participation in other major public assistance programs has remained relatively stable.

Figure 4.18 shows caseloads for TennCare, Families First, and SNAP between January 2019 and September 2020. Families First participation has merely continued its ongoing downward trend throughout the pandemic period, despite efforts to provide additional assistance. A comparison with national data reveals a diversity of experiences, with TANF cases rising dramatically in some states and falling dramatically in others.2

Figure 4.18: While UI Claims Skyrocketed, Participation of Other Public Assistance Programs Saw Only Modest Growth or went Unchanged During the Pandemic

Sources: Tennessee Department of Human Services and Tennessee Division of TennCare.



4.3. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION, CONTINUED

SNAP participation spiked upward as the pandemic hit Tennessee in March and April, but has trended generally downward since that time. National data suggest that Tennessee’s SNAP experience was toward the lower end of the dis-tribution, as most other states saw larger caseload growth in early 2020.3

Finally, while TennCare rules were left broadly unchanged, participation began to rise steadily from May 2020 onward. The national experience with Medicaid appears to have been similar, but cases have grown by larger percentages in most other states.4

In sum, Tennessee made significant efforts to provide additional public assistance to those families that have been most heavily-impacted by

3 Detailed state-by-state SNAP data can be accessed at https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/30SNAPcurrHH-7a.pdf.4 Detailed state-by-state Medicaid data can be accessed at https://www.medicaid.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/july-medicaid-chip-enrollment-trend-snapshot.pdf.

the COVID-19 pandemic. Benefits were enhanced and program eligibility rules were relaxed for most major programs as the state experienced the most significant economic interruption in modern times. Despite those efforts, it appears that most programs saw only modest growth in participation when compared to the massive increase in the receipt of UI benefits. As the pandemic continues to impact the state and as UI benefits run out for many participants, it will be important to keep a watchful eye on these other critical programs. The experience in 2021 could be substantially different. Fortunately, the state remains well-prepared finan-cially to provide these additional benefits given the general lack of participation in 2020.

During a recession, tax revenues normally de-cline in Tennessee, however, collections performed much better during the COVID-19 recession and initial rebound than in previous economic down-turns (see Figure 4.19). Revenues rose 2.3 percent in fiscal 2020 and are up 2.2 percent for the fiscal year-to-date through October 2020. By comparison, tax revenues fell 8.7 percent in fiscal 2009 and 1.3 percent in fiscal 2010, during the Great Recession. Admittedly, tax growth slowed dramatically from March through June of 2020, but growth rates be-gan improving by May, despite the expectations that taxes would be impacted for longer. Considerable uncertainty remains on tax revenue outcomes during the remainder of the year, just as there is uncertainty about overall economic performance.

Revenue performance has differed radically across tax categories during the pandemic, with some showing unusual strength and others weak-ness. Some are following patterns similar to other recessions, such as the motor vehicle taxes. Others, such as the sales, corporate, and realty transfer and mortgage taxes, have exhibited much stronger collections than the norms during recessions. The

responses were unexpected in the recession’s early days but it is now clear why many taxes responded as they did during the COVID economy.

Sales Taxes

The sales tax generated 61.6 percent of De-partment of Revenue collections in 2020. Sales taxes expanded very rapidly during the first part of fiscal 2020 but declined rapidly from April through June (based on sales in March through May) 2020. Sales began growing again by June as Federal assis-tance through the CARES Act provided substantial capacity for consumers to spend, even as employ-ment and GDP fell dramatically. Payments of $1200 to many households and enhanced unem-ployment benefits allowed transfer payments to rise nearly 60 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter (as compared to the same quarter last year), and gave consumers the potential to spend well beyond their earnings. The size and speed of the federal stimulus response was a key reason for maintaining positive tax revenue growth even as employment plummeted.

4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC



4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED

Sales taxes have risen 3.7 percent during the current fiscal year, widely different from the underlying economic performance in Tennessee. Sales taxes fell rapidly during the Great Recession in both fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2010, by comparison. The extent of substitution between categories of sales has been one of the most surprising out-comes during the past year. Tax revenue has gener-ally benefited as some substitutions have been away from non-sales taxable purchases, such as airline travel and elective surgery, and towards sales tax-able purchases. Still, some sectors have seen very rapid sales tax growth and others very large de-clines during recent months. Figure 4.20 illustrates that building material stores and online businesses (not pictured) have seen very large year-over-year increases in recent months. Broadly, durable goods sales have been very strong (see Figure 4.21), though their sales normally fall during recessions. Households have apparently used additional time at home for renovations and replacing appliances. They have also purchased equipment for exercise at home and for outdoor sports. Sales for kayaks, boats, and exercise bikes are reported to have risen rapidly. Even auto sales, which remain below their pre-pandemic level, have rebounded to solid levels.

Food stores have seen solid growth as people have shifted towards eating more at home. Thir-ty-one states do not tax food for consumption at home, which means they lost significant revenue as people shifted away from restaurants. Revenues have been better sustained in Tennessee since the state taxes food for consumption at home, albeit at a preferential 4.5 percent rate (some other states also have a preferred rate for food for consump-tion at home). On the other hand, hotels, eating and drinking places, and apparel and accessory stores have seen large revenue declines. The alco-holic beverage tax, which is generally imposed on alcohol consumed at home, has also seen very large increases while the mixed drink tax, levied on alco-hol in bars and restaurants, has fallen significantly.

Two recent Tennessee legislative changes have facilitated better sales tax growth than otherwise would have occurred. These legislative actions allow Tennessee to obtain sales taxes that were due but were previously difficult to collect, and their implementation during the past year is reflected in better sales tax growth during the weak economic environment. Tennessee, like all sales taxing states except Florida and Missouri, enacted economic nexus legislation in the wake

Figure 4.19: Real and Nominal Tax Revenue Growth is Volatile, 1999 - 2020

Tennessee Department of Revenue, IHS, and Author’s Calculations.




Figure 4.20: Sales Tax Collections Fell in Many Categories but Rose in Many OthersSeptember Fiscal YTD (Year over Year Change)

Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue.

Figure 4.21: Consumers have Shifted their Spending to Goods and away from Services (Q3, Percentage Change year-over-year)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S., Department of Commerce.




of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Wayfair v. South Dakota. The legislation became effective October 2019 and permits Tennessee to require larger remote vendors (those with sales above $500,000 into Tennessee) to begin collecting and remitting sales tax. The legislation has been particularly important for tax revenues as trends towards online purchasing accelerated during the pandemic (Figure 4.22).

Tennessee also enacted legislation requiring marketplace facilitators, such as Amazon and eBay, to collect taxes on all sales into Tennessee. The marketplace facilitator legislation was effective in October 2020, and November’s tax collections (based on October sales) evidence that substantial collection of taxes will result from marketplace facilitator legislation going forward.

The combination of the pandemic and the economic nexus and marketplace facilitator legisla-tion has important implications for local sales taxes as well. Almost all counties have seen very good sales tax revenue growth despite the pandemic (see Figure 4.23) because the new legislation permits improved collection of local as well as state taxes on remote sales. But, the distribution of revenues

has also been altered by the new legislation, which now requires remote vendors to provide revenues to the jurisdiction where the purchases are re-ceived. Formerly, much of the online local revenue was distributed using a formula that depended heavily on population, and allowed more of the revenues to go to some larger counties.

COVID-19 accelerated the trend towards online shopping, and underlying changes in local revenues were felt more rapidly than otherwise would have occurred. Local taxes on purchases in stores remain with the jurisdiction where the sale occurs, even if the purchase is made by a cross county shopper. Counties housing retail centers (such as the largest counties) experience much of the revenue loss from declines as people shift to purchasing online. The retail center counties con-tinue to receive the revenues if their residents shift their purchases online, but revenues from the cross border shoppers will now go to their home county when they shop online. As a result, Davidson, Hamilton, and Knox County have seen relatively weaker growth in local sales taxes as McMinn, Stewart and Crockett Counties (as examples) have seen very high growth rates.

Figure 4.22: Tennessee Tax on New Remote Sellers has Risen Dramatically Since Economic Nexus went into Effect

Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue




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Corporate Taxes

The corporate excise and franchise taxes have also done relatively well since the pandem-ic began, as they rose 3.7 percent in fiscal 2020 and are up 3.5 percent so far this fiscal year. These taxes plummeted during the Great Reces-sion years of fiscal 2008 and 2009. The timing of corporate tax payments depends on specific institutional rules developed by Tennessee and tax planning and accounting decisions made by companies, and the overall tax liabilities depends on corporate profitability. As a result, corporate tax collections during the past year likely depend mostly on 2019 corporate profits and decisions that companies had made before the pandemic. We will not discuss this in detail, but much of the corporate tax revenue is due later this fiscal year through quarterly payments, and as tax returns are filed in April (and filing extensions extend to October 2021). We expect corporate tax revenue to fall as the fiscal year proceeds, and to be a drag on overall tax collections. Lower corporate profits during the pandemic will likely reduce tax payments during the remainder of this year and going forward into next fiscal year.

Motor Vehicle Taxes

Many vehicle, and particularly fuel-related taxes, have generally declined in recent months as people work more from home, attend school less in person, and travel less for vacations. The fuel taxes (gasoline, diesel and gasoline inspection fees) all fell during fiscal 2020 except the diesel fuel tax rose because of a rate increase. The motor vehicle registration and motor vehicle title fees, which depend on factors such as the number of vehicles sold, also fell last fiscal year. The fuel taxes are down significantly again this fiscal year to date, though the other motor vehicle taxes have risen so far. All vehicle related taxes declined during the Great Recession in fiscal 2009. Generally, the motor vehicle-related taxes will likely perform poorly until people return to levels of travel similar to those existing prior to the pandemic.

Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes

The realty transfer and mortgage taxes have been particularly robust this calendar year (see Figure 4.24). Realty transfer taxes fell initially during the recession but quickly rebounded. Very low interest rates, the desire to find more space as social distancing occurs, and solid household

Figure 4.24: Housing’s Strength Apparent in Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes (3-month moving average)

Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue.




balance sheets given performance of the financial markets have caused overall housing starts and sales to reach the highest levels since before the Great Recession. Rising housing sales have also helped sales tax collections since many building materials and appliances in new houses are subject to sales tax. Again, recessions (and particularly the Great

Recession) are usually characterized by weak hous-ing construction and sales. It should be noted that national data suggest that investment in business structures has been very weak, more like recession norms. Very low interest rates have stimulated refi-nancing, which has caused realty mortgage taxes to remain very healthy through the pandemic.

4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION

The pandemic’s effects on state tax revenues was not as dire as feared initially, although the economic situation remains volatile and uncertain. Effects on education, however, were immediate-ly detrimental and could be long-lasting. In this section, we outline two causes for concern and de-scribe how they could contribute to a lost year for learning while labor-saving technology races ahead.

Online classes are a less effective way to learn.Likely the most common form of day-to-

day gathering is found in classrooms and child care centers. Moving a large share of learning from classrooms to virtual meetings and online platforms was perhaps the most widespread and widely felt precaution against the spread of the coronavirus. This move, though necessary in some measure, will likely hinder student learning in 2020-2021. Studies from a variety of settings—K-12, as well as multiple sectors of higher education—have consistently shown that students learn less in an online format than they do in person (Figlio et al., 2013; Xu and Jaggers, 2013; Alpert et al., 2016; Bettinger et al. 2017; Bueno, 2020; Fitzpatrick et al., 2020), although this vein of research has not yet examined the COVID-19 era of online learning or identified the effect of online education on the youngest learners.

Unfortunately, we will not have a good quan-titative understanding of the consequences of online and hybrid education for student learning in 2021. Required TNReady testing was canceled in spring 2020, and assessments may return in 2021 with weakened accountability provisions. Post-

secondary institutions accelerated a trend toward ACT/SAT “test optional” admissions, and for enrolled students, colleges and universities softened grading policies to counter the effects of disrupted coursework. These necessary changes in test ad-ministration procedures, grading, and accountabil-ity will make it difficult to understand if students lost ground academically between 2019 and 2021. It would be an even more difficult task to isolate the effects of online learning or any other 2020 policy from the dramatic health, economic, and social effects of COVID-19.

Fewer students are enrolling, and preparing to enroll, in college.

As of November 2020, the National Student Clearinghouse estimated that Tennessee’s under-graduate college enrollment was down 5 percent from the same point in time in 2019. Enrollment was 15 percent lower in the state’s community col-leges, whereas fall 2020 enrollment in public four-year universities was on par with 2019. According to a September 2020 analysis by the Tennessee Board of Regents, community college enrollment fell most among first-time, full-time freshmen (19 percent) and Black or African-American students (19 percent). Enrollment also fell sharply among older students (13 percent) and dual-enrolled high school students (9 percent).

Declining enrollment is concerning for a couple of reasons. First, this pattern is at odds with what happened in the prior two recessions, in 2001 and 2007-2009. During those downturns, community and technical college enrollment rose,



4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION, CONTINUED

as shown in Figure 4.25 and described in more detail in “Driving Forward,” a joint report by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Re-search and SCORE.5 College can insulate students against the effects of graduating during a recession (Carruthers, Kessler, & Wanamaker, 2020), and for displaced workers, postsecondary programs offer an opportunity to learn new skills and shift to new industries (Carruthers and Sanford, 2018). And second, a college education—whether it comes from a technical or community college, or a four-year university—is usually a worthwhile investment. Students who leave or defer college in 2020-2021 may earn less and have fewer opportu-nities for advancement in the future, and the state as a whole will have fewer people to fill jobs that need workers with postsecondary education.

Not only are fewer students enrolling in college in fall 2020, but it appears that fewer high school students are taking steps to enroll in fall 2021 by filing a Free Application for Federal

5 https://drivingforward.tnscore.org/6 We merged school-level FAFSA filing counts, as recorded through November 20, 2020, with U.S. Department of Education school profiles as compiled by the Urban Institute Education Data Explorer: https://educationdata.urban.org/data-explorer/schools/.

Student Aid (FAFSA). FAFSAs are necessary for need-based financial aid such as federal Pell or state TSAA grants, but also for subsidized loans, Ten-nessee Promise, merit-based HOPE scholarships, and institutional aid packages.

In recent years Tennessee has been a na-tionwide leader in FAFSA-filing rates among high school students. Nonetheless, data from the Federal Student Aid office of the U.S. Department of Education indicate that Tennessee high school students submitted 19 percent fewer FAFSAs through November 20, 2020 than over the same window in 2019. FAFSA shortfalls were larger at schools attended by more economically disadvan-taged students. Students in schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision, which allows schools to serve free breakfast and lunch to all enrolled students, and/or a school-wide Title I program, completed 25-26 percent fewer FAFSAs through November 20, 2020 than they completed by that same date in 2019.6

Figure 4.25. Community and Technical College Enrollment is Normally Countercyclical, Rising During Economic Downturns

Source: Authors’ calculation using IPEDS enrollment figures.



4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION, CONTINUED

A lost year for learningWhy did college enrollment fall in 2020, and

why are fewer high school seniors preparing to attend college in 2021? We do not have a com-prehensive answer yet, but there are several likely candidates. Online education is one of them.

Online programs can reach students where they are and increase access to education under normal circumstances (Goodman et al, 2019). But full participation requires technology and connec-tivity that is not universally and uniformly avail-able, despite public and private efforts to increase online access and lower the costs of connecting to schools and workplaces during the pandemic.

Many students also prefer in-person to online classes, and they may be planning to defer college until a time when in-person classes re-turn in full force. Given the evidence that online learning is less effective, delayed enrollment could serve students well if (1) they had other formative opportunities in the near term, such as work or service, and if (2) their college and financial aid options could be fixed until they are ready to enroll. Both conditions are question-able. As shown in Section 4.2, the state unem-ployment rate is twice as large as it was prior to the pandemic, and the national unemployment rate for young adults (aged 16 to 25) is still in double digits. Students may need to reapply for financial aid, and some aid packages (including Tennessee Promise) hinge on making a seam-

less move from high school to college. Among older potential students and those with children, online Pre-K-12 education entails caretaking re-sponsibilities that may make college impossible.

Aside from the deterrent effects of online ed-ucation, the abruptness of the downturn combined with continued labor market uncertainty may be responsible for delaying or derailing students’ col-lege plans. Tuition has grown faster than earnings since the last recession, enhancing the perceived risk of enrolling. Potential students are weighing the returns to a costly college education against an employment outlook that remains uncertain.

Looking aheadSome of the pandemic’s effects on the qual-

ity and accessibility of education will be undone when the public health crisis subsides, that is, when students will be able to reliably attend in-person classes again. But a 2020-2021 lost year for learning will continue to resonate for those students who struggle to catch up to grade level, or who fail to fulfill their postsecondary plans.

Previous recessions led firms to adopt cost-cutting technology that replaced labor, and this substitution was particularly potent among less edu-cated workers (Hershbein and Kahn, 2018). Similar dynamics are likely at work now. This leaves students of all ages as well as displaced workers even more vulnerable if they fall behind in 2020-2021, as firms use that same time to race ahead.

4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION

Business formation is a critical component of local economic growth. In response to the rapid increase in COVID-19 infections during the early months of 2020, the federal government declared a national emergency on March 13th, thereby prompting a slew of stay-at-home orders. To gauge the effect of this new economic envi-ronment on business activity, the Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics (BFS), which offer a high-frequency snapshot of state-level requests for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs), provide

rich detail. Indeed, an EIN application represents one of the many upfront fixed costs necessary to operate a business, and therefore, can be used to anticipate the trajectory of future business activity.

Figure 4.26 shows state-level and national trends in business applications. Two weeks after the national emergency was declared (week 13), the number of individuals filing business applications in the state of Tennessee had fallen 33 percent, matching the national decline. However, business applications began recovering at a faster pace in



4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION, CONTINUED

Tennessee, requiring only 8 weeks to surpass pre-pandemic levels, compared to the national average of 12 weeks. That strength in recovery persisted through the summer months, with business applications reaching more than 200 percent of pre-pandemic levels by week 28. Since then, business applications have gradually trended back toward more “normal” levels, but the stock

of potential start-ups in Tennessee and across the nation remains undeniable.

Overwhelmingly, the national surge in business applications can be attributed to the retail trade sector as shown in Figure 4.27. During the first 40 weeks of the 2020 calendar year, retail trade business applications totaled more than 620,000, dominated by non-store retailers. Adapting to

Figure 4.26: Indexed Business Applications in Tennessee and the Nation During 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics.

Figure 4.27: Business Applications Across Industries at the National Level

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics.



4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION, CONTINUED

more time spent at home due to furlough or re-mote work, it appears that individuals have begun starting retail businesses at a faster clip than ever before. Not surprisingly, the e-commerce website, Etsy, reported nearly 1 million additional active sellers between the first and third quarters of 2020. With the permanent closure of more than 100,000 small businesses since the onset of the COVID-19

pandemic, this surge in early-stage retail business formation represents a welcomed buffer. In the state of Tennessee and across the nation, the transition of business applications into operating business establishments and their persistence into future years will likely determine the pace at which small business activity rebounds from a formidable and challenging year.

4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC

Unprecedented levels of government spend-ing have been required to help prop up the economy during the pandemic. Most notably, the CARES Act, signed into law in March 2020, pumped more than $2.0 trillion of stimulus money into the economy as a means to limit the economic fallout associated with the pandem-ic. CARES Act relief was distributed through a variety of channels, as can be seen in Figure 4.28. Of particular importance were the Pay-check Protection Program (PPP), which provid-ed economic support for small businesses, and expanded unemployment benefits through three new programs: the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program (PUA), Pandemic Emergen-cy Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), and Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC). The PUA and PEUC expanded who was eligible for unemployment insurance benefits to include those who are self-employed, independent contractors, and part-time workers and allowed states to provide an additional 13 weeks of fed-erally funded benefits (resulting in an extension from the maximum of 26 weeks to 39 weeks of benefits). As of this writing, these programs expire at the end of December 2020. The FPUC, which expired in July, provided a $600 per week federally funded increase in UI payments (com-pared with average state benefits of around $220 per week). The result was an average of $340 mil-lion in benefits being paid each week in May. This has recently fallen to about $30 million per week.

The PPP enabled the Small Business Admin-istration (SBA) to provide loans to small business-es which would be forgiven if at least 75 percent of the funds were used to cover payroll expens-es, while the rest could be used for nonpayroll expenses like rent, utilities, and interest payments on mortgages. These loans were designed to incentivize small businesses to keep their workers on the payroll. The PPP initially allowed the SBA to loan out $342.3 billion to small businesses, but these funds were quickly depleted. The program

Figure 4.28: Fiscal Aid through the CARES Act Provided Relief through Six Broad Channels

Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation



was later extended to include an additional $320 billion in funds, which expired on August 8, 2020. In total, the SBA lent out $525 billion in PPP loans to businesses across the nation, represent-ing roughly 80% of the total funding available for PPP loans.7 In Tennessee, 99,579 PPP loans were issued through August 8, totaling nearly $9.0 billion in funds. Some additional details on the CARES Act are provided in Section 1.1 of Chap-ter 1, Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts.

In concert with the CARES Act, The Fed also took a number of quick actions in response to the pandemic, in order to help provide liquidi-ty to the economy. The Fed’s ability to support the economy is largely limited to lending, but even with this limitation they were able to take quick and aggressive actions to limit the eco-nomic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most importantly, in mid-March, the Fed quick-ly cut the target for the federal funds rate (the interest rate that banks pay to each other for

7 https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/SBA-Paycheck-Protection-Program-Loan-Report-Round2.pdf8 https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

overnight loans) to a range of 0 to 0.25 in an ef-fort to lower the cost of borrowing (see Figure 4.29). This is an important policy tool because it is used as a benchmark for other interest rates such as home mortgages and auto loans, and therefore reduced borrowing costs for consumers. In addition, the Fed also reduced the required re-serve ratio for commercial banks to 0 percent. In recent years, banks were required to hold 10 per-cent of their capital in reserves as a buffer against economic distress. In March, this requirement was lifted to allow banks to provide additional loans to businesses and households as needed. Similar to the Quantitative Easing program maintained during the Great Recession, the Fed also resumed purchasing massive amounts of securities on a monthly basis. From March to June, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from an already high $3.7 trillion to nearly $6.0 trillion.8 And in June the Fed announced that it would continue the large scale purchasing program until further notice. Figure

4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED

Figure 4.29: Federal Funds Rate is Back Near Zero

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Inte

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4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED

4.30 shows that the current purchasing program is being performed at a scale much higher than during the Great Recession. The purpose of this program was to stabilize U.S. Treasury security prices and inject money into the economy. The Fed also created or relaunched a number of lend-ing facilities through Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to help issue credit to cash-strapped households, businesses, and municipalities. The Fed’s actions have been appropriately aggressive

given the scope of the pandemic and related economic fallout. However, the Fed’s options for stimulus are pretty limited and Chairman Powell has, on numerous occasions, stated that more fiscal relief from the legislative/executive branch is needed to help support the recovery. Further-more, with COVID-19 cases surging this winter, and most of the provisions from the CARES Act already expired, or set to expire soon, the eco-nomic recovery is certainly on rocky footing.

Figure 4.30: Fed Asset Holdings Skyrocketed in 2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



The COVID-19 pandemic has led to abrupt changes in the way we live and the way the econ-omy functions. This chapter provides insights into how some of those changes have played out so far. From a health perspective, we are cer-tainly living in dark times, with hospitals around the country nearing (or exceeding) capacity and COVID-19 cases and death rates spiking. Howev-er, news of successful vaccine candidates offer a glimmer of hope, and suggest that there is in fact a light at the end of this incredibly dark tunnel.

From an economic perspective, things are a bit brighter. The state and national economies have proven to be incredibly resilient, as jobs and economic activity have rebounded relatively quickly from their April lows. However, both are still below pre-pandemic peak levels, and a surging virus puts the economic rebound on shaky ground. Furthermore, the economic recovery has been incredibly uneven thus far. Many service sectors are still struggling, as the virus continues to shape

consumer spending patterns. Employment levels among high wage workers in Tennessee have nearly made a full recovery, while employment among lower wage workers is still severely depressed (as shown in Section 4.2). With long-term unem-ployment on the rise, many of these unemployed individuals have likely already exhausted all of their UI benefits. Therefore, even if a second stimulus package is approved, many will be ineligible for further benefits, unless an extension to the maxi-mum number of weeks is also included. And while the stock market has shown strong gains in recent months, many families are still dealing with food insecurity, as discussed in Section 2.5 of Chapter 2. Small businesses have also been severely im-pacted by the pandemic, while larger corporations, especially those with a strong online presence, have done well. Thus, while the aggregate data suggest an improving economy, many sectors, businesses, individuals, and families are still facing dire eco-nomic conditions.

4.8. CONCLUSION



4.9. REFERENCES

Alpert, W. T., Couch, K. A., & Harmon, O. R. (2016). A randomized assessment of online learning. American Economic Review, 106(5), 378-82.

Bettinger, E. P., Fox, L., Loeb, S., & Taylor, E. S. (2017). Virtual classrooms: How online college courses affect student success. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2855-75.

Bueno, C. (2020). Bricks and Mortar vs. Computers and Modems: The Impacts of Enrollment in K-12 Virtual Schools (July 3, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3642969 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642969

Carruthers, C., Kessler, L., & M. Wanamaker. (2020). COVID-19 Could Shrink the Earnings of Graduates for Years to Come. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/covid-19-could-shrink-the-earnings-of-2020-graduates-for-years-to-come-134765

Carruthers, C. K., & Sanford, T. (2018). Way station or launching pad? Unpacking the returns to adult technical education. Journal of Public Economics, 165, 146-159.

Driving Forward: Ensuring Postsecondary Students Earn Credentials In A Changing Economy.'' (July 2020). Prepared by the University of Tennessee Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research and the State Collaborative on Reforming Education (SCORE). https://drivingforward.tnscore.org/

Dubay, L., Aarons, J., Brow, K.S., Kenney, G.M. (2020). How Risk of Exposure to the Coronavirus at Work Varies by Race and Ethnicity and How to Protect the Health and Well-Being of Workers and Their Families. Urban Institute. https://www.urban.org/research/publication/how-risk-exposure-coronavirus-work-varies-race-and-ethnicity-and-how-protect-health-and-well-being-workers-and-their-families/view/full_report

Figlio, D., Rush, M., & Yin, L. (2013). Is it live or is it internet? Experimental estimates of the effects of online instruction on student learning. Journal of Labor Economics, 31(4), 763-784.

FAFSA® Completion by High School and Public High School District. U.S. Department of Education Office of Federal Student Aid. Online (as of 2020-11-30): https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/application-volume/fafsa-completion-high-school.

Fitzpatrick, B. R., Berends, M., Ferrare, J. J., & Waddington, R. J. (2020). Virtual illusion: Comparing student achievement and teacher and classroom characteristics in online and brick-and-mortar charter schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 161-175.

Goodman, J., Melkers, J., & Pallais, A. (2019). Can online delivery increase access to education?. Journal of Labor Economics, 37(1), 1-34.

Hershbein, B., & Kahn, L. B. (2018). Do recessions accelerate routine-biased technological change? Evidence from vacancy postings. American Economic Review, 108(7), 1737-72.

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s Monthly Update on Higher Education Enrollment. Online (as of 2020-11-30): https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/.

Smith-Barrow, D. (2020). A worrying trend this fall: Decline in FAFSA applications. The Hechinger Report. https://hechingerreport.org/a-worrying-trend-this-fall-decline-in-fafsa-applications/

Tennessee Board of Regents. Student Access, Equity, and Success in 2020: Data Insights. Online (2020-11-30): https://www.tbr.edu/sites/default/files/media/2020/09/2020_September_Policy%20and%20Strategy_Board%20Slides.pdf

Xu, D., & Jaggars, S. S. (2013). The impact of online learning on students’ course outcomes: Evidence from a large community and technical college system. Economics of Education Review, 37, 46-57.

Forecast Data | APPENDIX A


APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATAIn this Section —

Appendix A: Forecast Data Quarterly Pages 2–25 (2020:4 to 2023:1) Annual Pages 26–38 (2020 to 2030)

QUARTERLY FORECAST TABLES

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted .................................................................2Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................4Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) ................5Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) ............6Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ......................................7Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...................8Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ............9Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................10Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ........................12Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...............13Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) ................14Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) .......................15Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ............17Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ...................18Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted ............................................20Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted ...................................................21Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) .......................................................22Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............................................................23Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ....................................................24Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ...........................................................25

ANNUAL FORECAST TABLES

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................26Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators .................................................................................27Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) .........................................................................28Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) .....................................................................29Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................30Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) ...........................................................31Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) .....................................................32Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) ............................................................33Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) ........................................................34Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate .......................................................................................35Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) ..................................................................................................36Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) ..............................................................................................37Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) ...............................................................38

APPENDIX A | Forecast Data


Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U.

S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

US

GD

P (B

il201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

1730

2.5

1858

4.0

1875

5.5

1888

0.5

1892

8.3

1901

5.4

1910

5.3

1925

8.4

1941

3.4

1953

9.9

1964

4.9

1975

2.7

1909

1.7

1841

3.2

1898

2.4

1946

4.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-31.

3833

.08

3.74

2.69

1.02

1.85

1.90

3.24

3.26

2.63

2.17

2.21

2.16

-3.5

53.

092.

54%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-9

.03

-2.9

1-2

.59

-0.6

99.

402.

321.

872.

002.

562.

762.

822.

572.

16-3

.55

3.09

2.54

US

GD

P (B

il$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

……

1952

0.1

2115

7.6

2145

8.2

2169

5.7

2187

1.4

2207

9.1

2229

8.2

2258

4.7

2287

8.6

2314

3.0

2338

8.5

2364

0.5

2143

3.2

2092

4.3

2198

6.1

2299

8.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-32.

8238

.02

5.80

4.50

3.28

3.85

4.03

5.24

5.31

4.70

4.31

4.38

3.98

-2.3

75.

074.

61%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-8

.48

-1.7

8-1

.33

0.62

12.0

54.

363.

924.

104.

604.

824.

894.

683.

98-2

.37

5.07

4.61

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL20

12$)

SAA

R…

…31

9219

3107

0730

9335

3065

9930

7059

3089

1531

0757

3130

5231

5462

3177

0331

9871

3223

2530

2654

3114

3830

8333

3165

22%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…17

.67

-10.

25-1

.75

-3.4

90.

602.

442.

412.

993.

112.

872.

763.

102.

482.

90-1

.00

2.66

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

5.60

2.61

1.84

0.03

-3.8

1-0

.58

0.46

2.10

2.74

2.84

2.93

2.96

2.48

2.90

-1.0

02.

66

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

2012

$) S

AAR

……

1846

917

817

1726

317

092

1709

117

101

1709

417

195

1728

717

363

1743

617

556

1688

817

660

1709

517

320

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

36.3

7-1

3.39

-11.

87-3

.91

-0.0

20.

24-0

.16

2.38

2.14

1.79

1.69

2.78

2.40

4.58

-3.2

01.

32%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…9.

665.

491.

710.

00-7

.46

-4.0

2-0

.98

0.60

1.14

1.53

2.00

2.10

2.40

4.58

-3.2

01.

32

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL$)

SAA

R…

……

…35

2529

3466

4134

6490

3453

9334

7739

3517

3735

5629

3598

9736

4208

3682

3837

2358

3766

2833

2473

3463

7635

0125

3661

75%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…15

.79

-6.5

2-0

.17

-1.2

62.

744.

684.

504.

894.

884.

504.

554.

674.

004.

181.

084.

58%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…6.

283.

973.

201.

63-1

.36

1.47

2.64

4.20

4.74

4.69

4.70

4.65

4.00

4.18

1.08

4.58

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

$) S

AAR

……

……

2039

719

856

1931

919

196

1930

519

425

1953

219

751

1996

120

154

2034

420

585

1855

219

631

1936

420

052

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

34.1

9-1

0.19

-10.

39-2

.51

2.28

2.51

2.23

4.55

4.33

3.91

3.84

4.81

3.92

5.82

-1.3

63.

55%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…10

.37

6.77

2.97

1.29

-5.3

5-2

.17

1.11

2.89

3.40

3.75

4.16

4.22

3.92

5.82

-1.3

63.

55

TN N

ON

FAR

M J

OBS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

……

2858

.729

84.2

3033

.030

45.5

3059

.730

83.5

3106

.831

18.4

3128

.731

39.2

3148

.831

59.4

3123

.030

07.0

3073

.931

33.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-32.

3518

.76

6.70

1.67

1.88

3.15

3.05

1.50

1.33

1.34

1.23

1.35

1.95

-3.7

12.

231.

95%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-8

.26

-4.6

0-3

.45

-3.3

87.

033.

332.

432.

392.

261.

801.

351.

311.

95-3

.71

2.23

1.95

US

NO

NFA

RM

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

133.

714

0.8

143.

214

5.8

147.

114

8.1

149.

015

0.1

151.

115

1.7

152.

315

2.7

150.

914

2.4

147.

515

1.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-39.

9922

.91

7.10

7.28

3.61

2.89

2.48

3.05

2.58

1.52

1.58

1.21

1.37

-5.6

53.

562.

58%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

1.22

-6.8

6-5

.64

-4.0

59.

985.

204.

053.

012.

752.

412.

181.

721.

37-5

.65

3.56

2.58

TN M

FG J

OBS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

……

……

…30

6.7

324.

332

7.4

328.

532

9.6

331.

133

2.8

333.

733

4.4

334.

933

5.5

336.

135

5.1

327.

833

0.5

334.

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…-4

2.99

25.0

23.

871.

411.

291.

881.

991.

130.

770.

660.

750.

741.

31-7

.67

0.82

1.24

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-14.

02-8

.86

-7.2

3-6

.92

7.47

2.11

1.64

1.57

1.44

1.14

0.83

0.73

1.31

-7.6

70.

821.

24

US

MFG

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

……

…11

.812

.112

.212

.312

.412

.412

.412

.512

.512

.512

.512

.612

.812

.212

.412

.5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…-2

9.50

13.6

83.

420.

992.

940.

821.

051.

43-0

.35

0.39

2.48

2.10

1.19

-4.6

20.

960.

97%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-8

.35

-5.4

9-4

.69

-4.3

55.

142.

031.

441.

550.

730.

630.

981.

151.

19-4

.62

0.96

0.97

TN U

NEM

PLO

YMEN

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

12.1

8.2

6.3

5.7

5.4

5.1

4.8

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.4

7.5

5.2

4.4

US

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (%

)……

……

……

13.0

8.8

6.8

6.0

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.0

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

3.7

8.1

5.7

4.7

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U.

S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

CH

AIN

ED P

RIC

E IN

DEX

, GD

P (2

012=

100.

0)…

……

……

......

......

......

......

...…

112.

911

3.9

114.

411

4.9

115.

511

6.1

116.

711

7.3

117.

811

8.4

119.

111

9.7

112.

311

3.6

115.

811

8.2

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-1.8

23.

591.

951.

762.

241.

962.

081.

931.

982.

022.

102.

121.

811.

171.

932.

01%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…0.

611.

121.

261.

352.

381.

982.

012.

061.

992.

012.

012.

061.

811.

171.

932.

01

US

PER

S C

ON

SUM

P D

EFL

(201

2=10

0.0)

……

…11

0.4

111.

411

1.9

112.

311

3.0

113.

611

4.3

114.

911

5.5

116.

111

6.7

117.

310

9.9

111.

211

3.3

115.

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…-1

.60

3.70

1.68

1.46

2.30

2.26

2.40

2.12

2.15

2.08

2.11

1.98

1.49

1.20

1.90

2.20

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

0.65

1.21

1.25

1.29

2.28

1.92

2.10

2.27

2.23

2.19

2.11

2.08

1.49

1.20

1.90

2.20

CO

NSU

MER

PR

ICE

IND

EX,

ALL-

UR

BAN

(82-

84=1

.000

)……

……

……

……

2.56

32.

595

2.61

02.

621

2.63

82.

657

2.67

72.

693

2.71

02.

726

2.74

32.

758

2.55

72.

589

2.64

82.

718

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-3.5

35.

162.

291.

632.

702.

912.

952.

422.

582.

442.

502.

241.

811.

262.

302.

64%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…0.

441.

251.

231.

342.

942.

382.

552.

752.

712.

602.

492.

441.

811.

262.

302.

64

BAN

K PR

IME

INTE

RES

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

5.3

3.5

3.3

3.3

FED

ERAL

FU

ND

S R

ATE

(% p

er a

nnum

)……

…0.

060

0.09

30.

100

0.10

00.

100

0.10

00.

100

0.10

00.

100

0.10

00.

100

0.10

02.

158

0.37

80.

100

0.10

0

30-Y

EAR

FIX

ED M

OR

TGAG

E R

ATE

(%)…

……

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.9

3.1

3.0

3.2

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

2012

$)…

……

……

…31

443

3320

733

303

3312

733

135

3321

333

379

3367

133

921

3415

734

370

3464

112

8957

1295

6313

2854

1361

19%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…-2

.10

24.4

01.

17-2

.10

0.10

0.94

2.02

3.54

3.00

2.82

2.51

3.19

4.39

0.47

2.54

2.46

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-2.2

12.

821.

364.

805.

380.

020.

231.

642.

372.

842.

972.

884.

390.

472.

542.

46

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

$)…

……

……

……

……

3472

437

047

3730

437

319

3752

537

817

3819

938

709

3916

339

591

4001

040

477

1416

7014

4124

1508

6015

7472

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

……

-3.6

729

.57

2.80

0.16

2.23

3.15

4.11

5.45

4.76

4.44

4.30

4.76

5.95

1.73

4.67

4.38

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-1.5

74.

182.

726.

478.

072.

082.

403.

734.

364.

694.

744.

575.

951.

734.

674.

38

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M(2

012$

)……

……

…...

......

......

......

..……

…...

...48

594

4805

247

984

4791

747

889

4790

447

915

4809

148

277

4848

748

668

4887

447

349

4806

847

906

4838

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…8.

23-4

.39

-0.5

6-0

.56

-0.2

30.

130.

091.

471.

561.

751.

501.

700.

831.

52-0

.34

0.99

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

2.27

1.67

1.86

0.57

-1.4

5-0

.31

-0.1

40.

360.

811.

221.

571.

630.

831.

52-0

.34

0.99

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M ($

)……

…53

665

5360

953

748

5398

054

233

5454

554

834

5528

755

737

5619

956

654

5710

752

012

5346

354

398

5596

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

…6.

49-0

.42

1.04

1.74

1.89

2.32

2.14

3.34

3.29

3.36

3.28

3.24

2.33

2.79

1.75

2.89

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

2.93

3.02

3.23

2.18

1.06

1.75

2.02

2.42

2.77

3.03

3.32

3.29

2.33

2.79

1.75

2.89

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el



Tabl

e 2:

Sel

ecte

d Pe

r Cap

ita U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

US

GD

P (2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

.……

5241

456

210

5662

856

905

5694

957

111

5728

157

640

5800

358

280

5849

358

713

5807

855

729

5706

258

105

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

-31.

7332

.27

3.01

1.97

0.31

1.14

1.20

2.53

2.55

1.92

1.47

1.52

1.67

-4.0

42.

391.

83%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-9

.48

-3.3

9-3

.13

-1.3

18.

651.

601.

151.

291.

852.

052.

121.

861.

67-4

.04

2.39

1.83

US

GD

P ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

…59

131

6399

464

788

6539

065

804

6631

366

854

6759

568

356

6902

769

639

7027

065

201

6332

966

091

6865

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…-3

3.16

37.1

85.

063.

772.

563.

133.

314.

514.

583.

983.

603.

673.

49-2

.87

4.36

3.88

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-8.9

4-2

.26

-1.8

8-0

.01

11.2

83.

623.

193.

373.

884.

094.

173.

963.

49-2

.87

4.36

3.88

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (2

012$

) SAA

R…

…46

355

4511

944

920

4416

244

228

4449

544

761

4473

845

082

4540

245

712

4571

444

321

4522

544

411

4523

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…17

.67

-10.

25-1

.75

-6.5

80.

602.

442.

41-0

.20

3.11

2.87

2.76

0.02

1.60

2.04

-1.8

01.

85%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…4.

711.

750.

98-0

.78

-4.5

9-1

.38

-0.3

51.

301.

932.

042.

132.

181.

602.

04-1

.80

1.85

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

5594

853

891

5212

351

515

5142

151

362

5125

251

465

5164

851

789

5191

752

184

5137

353

450

5138

751

705

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

35.6

8-1

3.92

-12.

49-4

.59

-0.7

2-0

.46

-0.8

61.

671.

431.

090.

992.

081.

914.

04-3

.86

0.62

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

9.11

4.97

1.14

-0.6

3-8

.09

-4.6

9-1

.67

-0.1

00.

440.

831.

301.

401.

914.

04-3

.86

0.62

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E ($

) SAA

R…

……

…51

192

5033

750

315

4974

950

087

5066

351

224

5143

252

048

5262

453

213

5341

648

688

5029

950

431

5233

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…15

.79

-6.5

2-0

.17

-4.4

22.

744.

684.

501.

644.

884.

504.

551.

533.

113.

310.

263.

76%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…5.

393.

102.

340.

81-2

.16

0.65

1.81

3.38

3.92

3.87

3.88

3.86

3.11

3.31

0.26

3.76

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($) S

AAR

……

……

6178

760

057

5832

857

857

5808

258

340

5856

159

113

5964

060

111

6057

561

187

5643

459

413

5821

159

861

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

33.5

1-1

0.74

-11.

03-3

.19

1.56

1.79

1.52

3.83

3.61

3.19

3.13

4.10

3.42

5.28

-2.0

22.

83%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…9.

826.

242.

400.

66-6

.00

-2.8

60.

402.

172.

683.

033.

443.

513.

425.

28-2

.02

2.83

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(201

2$)…

……

……

……

4566

4822

4836

4772

4773

4784

4808

4812

4848

4881

4912

4913

1888

518

814

1913

619

453

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

-2.1

024

.40

1.17

-5.2

40.

100.

942.

020.

333.

002.

822.

510.

103.

50-0

.37

1.71

1.65

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-3.0

31.

960.

513.

954.

53-0

.79

-0.5

80.

851.

572.

042.

162.

103.

50-0

.37

1.71

1.65

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

($)…

……

……

……

……

5042

5380

5417

5375

5405

5447

5502

5532

5597

5658

5718

5741

2074

620

929

2172

922

504

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

-3.6

729

.57

2.80

-3.0

52.

233.

154.

112.

184.

764.

444.

301.

625.

040.

883.

823.

57%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.40

3.31

1.86

5.61

7.19

1.25

1.57

2.91

3.55

3.87

3.92

3.77

5.04

0.88

3.82

3.57

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 3:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e Co

mpo

nent

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d An

nual

Rat

es (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2023

:120

1920

2020

2120

22

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

...…

……

3064

9231

9219

3107

0730

9335

3065

9930

7059

3089

1531

0757

3130

5231

5462

3177

0331

9871

3223

2530

2654

3114

3830

8333

3165

22%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…3.

6617

.67

-10.

25-1

.75

-3.4

90.

602.

442.

412.

993.

112.

872.

763.

102.

482.

90-1

.00

2.66

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

1.57

5.60

2.61

1.84

0.03

-3.8

1-0

.58

0.46

2.10

2.74

2.84

2.93

2.96

2.48

2.90

-1.0

02.

66

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

1510

3013

9763

1442

5914

6401

1467

9014

7387

1485

7714

9724

1508

2515

1905

1530

6615

4103

1552

6614

8719

1453

6314

8120

1524

75%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…6.

01-2

6.66

13.5

06.

071.

071.

643.

273.

122.

972.

893.

092.

743.

052.

76-2

.26

1.90

2.94

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

1.75

-6.1

5-2

.97

-1.6

4-2

.81

5.46

2.99

2.27

2.75

3.07

3.02

2.92

2.94

2.76

-2.2

61.

902.

94

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…32

699

3098

532

065

3314

333

421

3358

033

740

3390

834

202

3450

634

750

3503

035

309

3251

232

223

3366

234

622

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

2.38

-19.

3814

.69

14.1

43.

391.

921.

922.

003.

513.

612.

853.

273.

222.

01-0

.89

4.47

2.85

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

0.79

-4.8

1-1

.48

1.96

2.21

8.38

5.22

2.31

2.34

2.76

2.99

3.31

3.24

2.01

-0.8

94.

472.

85

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…42

398

3383

436

268

3854

540

217

4048

941

277

4201

242

425

4289

143

123

4341

743

719

4178

737

761

4099

942

964

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

0.08

-59.

4532

.03

27.5

818

.51

2.73

8.01

7.32

3.99

4.47

2.18

2.76

2.81

3.05

-9.6

38.

574.

79%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…2.

29-1

8.03

-13.

71-9

.07

-5.1

519

.67

13.8

18.

995.

495.

934.

473.

343.

053.

05-9

.63

8.57

4.79

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

4482

444

004

4322

743

140

4293

542

736

4267

342

674

4273

342

843

4300

643

139

4332

544

907

4379

942

754

4293

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…-0

.56

-7.1

2-6

.87

-0.8

1-1

.89

-1.8

4-0

.59

0.01

0.56

1.03

1.53

1.24

1.73

-0.2

5-2

.47

-2.3

80.

41%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…-0

.15

-2.2

2-3

.62

-3.8

9-4

.21

-2.8

8-1

.28

-1.0

8-0

.47

0.25

0.78

1.09

1.38

-0.2

5-2

.47

-2.3

80.

41

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

…61

592

9525

679

130

7209

167

236

6691

866

776

6661

167

081

6761

368

139

6863

569

268

6031

377

017

6688

567

867

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

5.94

472.

13-5

2.38

-31.

11-2

4.34

-1.8

8-0

.85

-0.9

82.

853.

213.

152.

943.

744.

1227

.70

-13.

161.

47%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…2.

5958

.20

31.2

418

.75

9.16

-29.

75-1

5.61

-7.6

0-0

.23

1.04

2.04

3.04

3.26

4.12

27.7

0-1

3.16

1.47

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

2404

422

818

2245

422

202

2222

322

281

2236

422

416

2246

322

550

2263

822

715

2282

523

628

2287

922

321

2259

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…6.

79-1

8.88

-6.2

4-4

.42

0.38

1.05

1.50

0.93

0.84

1.56

1.57

1.36

1.96

3.25

-3.1

7-2

.44

1.21

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

2.09

-3.6

0-5

.01

-6.1

3-7

.57

-2.3

6-0

.40

0.96

1.08

1.21

1.22

1.33

1.61

3.25

-3.1

7-2

.44

1.21

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

-200

7-1

805

-178

9-1

784

-177

7-1

770

-176

3-1

757

-175

2-1

747

-174

3-1

739

-173

5-1

958

-184

6-1

767

-174

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…16

.64

-34.

47-3

.52

-1.0

7-1

.72

-1.5

3-1

.56

-1.4

0-1

.18

-1.0

3-0

.89

-1.0

3-0

.78

4.94

-5.6

8-4

.32

-1.2

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…2.

94-9

.10

-8.9

2-7

.58

-11.

46-1

.96

-1.4

7-1

.55

-1.4

2-1

.29

-1.1

3-1

.03

-0.9

34.

94-5

.68

-4.3

2-1

.22

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

…44

507

4635

545

119

4492

044

162

4422

844

495

4476

144

738

4508

245

402

4571

245

714

4432

145

225

4441

145

234

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

0.22

17.6

7-1

0.25

-1.7

5-6

.58

0.60

2.44

2.41

-0.2

03.

112.

872.

760.

021.

602.

04-1

.80

1.85

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

0.72

4.71

1.75

0.98

-0.7

8-4

.59

-1.3

8-0

.35

1.30

1.93

2.04

2.13

2.18

1.60

2.04

-1.8

01.

85

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 4:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d An

nual

Rat

es (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2023

:120

1920

2020

2120

22

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

..33

9845

3525

2934

6641

3464

9034

5393

3477

3935

1737

3556

2935

9897

3642

0836

8238

3723

5837

6628

3324

7334

6376

3501

2536

6175

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

4.99

15.7

9-6

.52

-0.1

7-1

.26

2.74

4.68

4.50

4.89

4.88

4.50

4.55

4.67

4.00

4.18

1.08

4.58

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

3.28

6.28

3.97

3.20

1.63

-1.3

61.

472.

644.

204.

744.

694.

704.

654.

004.

181.

084.

58

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

1674

6515

4347

1609

4316

3986

1653

6416

6913

1691

7317

1344

1733

9417

5378

1774

1417

9389

1814

2316

3370

1616

8516

8199

1763

94%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

…7.

37-2

7.84

18.2

27.

783.

403.

805.

535.

234.

874.

654.

734.

534.

614.

29-1

.03

4.03

4.87

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

3.46

-5.5

4-1

.69

-0.3

2-1

.26

8.14

5.11

4.49

4.86

5.07

4.87

4.70

4.63

4.29

-1.0

34.

034.

87

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

…36

257

3421

835

774

3712

437

650

3802

938

417

3880

439

320

3983

840

277

4077

841

257

3571

535

843

3822

540

053

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

3.69

-20.

6719

.46

15.9

85.

784.

094.

154.

095.

425.

384.

485.

074.

783.

520.

366.

644.

78%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

…2.

49-4

.20

-0.1

83.

323.

8411

.14

7.39

4.52

4.44

4.76

4.84

5.09

4.93

3.52

0.36

6.64

4.78

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

…47

012

3736

540

463

4317

545

305

4585

346

998

4807

948

774

4951

949

982

5054

151

084

4590

642

004

4655

949

704

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

1.37

-60.

1037

.52

29.6

321

.25

4.92

10.3

79.

525.

916.

253.

794.

554.

374.

59-8

.50

10.8

46.

76%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

…4.

01-1

7.50

-12.

57-7

.85

-3.6

322

.72

16.1

511

.36

7.66

8.00

6.35

5.12

4.74

4.59

-8.5

010

.84

6.76

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

4970

148

595

4822

748

322

4836

848

398

4858

848

836

4912

849

463

4984

750

218

5062

449

331

4871

148

547

4966

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

…0.

72-8

.61

-3.0

00.

790.

380.

251.

582.

062.

412.

763.

143.

013.

271.

23-1

.26

-0.3

42.

30%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

…1.

54-1

.59

-2.3

4-2

.60

-2.6

8-0

.41

0.75

1.06

1.57

2.20

2.59

2.83

3.04

1.23

-1.2

6-0

.34

2.30

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

…68

294

1051

9788

282

8075

175

744

7578

376

032

7622

977

119

7806

178

978

7989

880

938

6625

685

631

7594

778

514

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

7.30

462.

96-5

0.40

-30.

00-2

2.59

0.21

1.32

1.04

4.75

4.98

4.78

4.74

5.31

5.67

29.2

4-1

1.31

3.38

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

4.32

59.2

232

.97

20.3

410

.91

-27.

96-1

3.88

-5.6

01.

823.

013.

874.

814.

955.

6729

.24

-11.

313.

38

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

2666

025

200

2505

124

869

2503

525

233

2546

425

652

2582

426

034

2623

926

442

2667

025

956

2544

525

346

2613

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

…8.

16-2

0.18

-2.3

4-2

.88

2.70

3.20

3.72

2.99

2.70

3.30

3.18

3.13

3.50

4.78

-1.9

7-0

.39

3.11

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

3.82

-2.9

7-3

.75

-4.8

7-6

.10

0.13

1.65

3.15

3.15

3.18

3.04

3.08

3.28

4.78

-1.9

7-0

.39

3.11

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

…-2

225

-199

4-1

996

-199

9-2

002

-200

4-2

007

-201

0-2

014

-201

7-2

020

-202

4-2

028

-215

1-2

053

-200

6-2

019

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

18.1

4-3

5.52

0.49

0.52

0.55

0.57

0.59

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.70

0.72

6.49

-4.5

1-2

.31

0.64

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

4.68

-8.5

1-7

.71

-6.3

4-1

0.04

0.53

0.56

0.58

0.60

0.63

0.65

0.67

0.69

6.49

-4.5

1-2

.31

0.64

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

4935

051

192

5033

750

315

4974

950

087

5066

351

224

5143

252

048

5262

453

213

5341

648

688

5029

950

431

5233

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

…1.

5115

.79

-6.5

2-0

.17

-4.4

22.

744.

684.

501.

644.

884.

504.

551.

533.

113.

310.

263.

76%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

…2.

425.

393.

102.

340.

81-2

.16

0.65

1.81

3.38

3.92

3.87

3.88

3.86

3.11

3.31

0.26

3.76

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 5:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Not

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…28

57.1

2976

.430

64.2

3026

.230

59.9

3076

.331

38.6

3098

.231

29.1

3132

.031

81.0

3138

.931

22.1

3007

.430

75.2

3135

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-8

.25

-4.6

4-3

.44

-3.3

77.

103.

362.

432.

382.

261.

811.

351.

311.

92-3

.67

2.26

1.95

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

& C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

130.

513

1.9

133.

113

0.6

133.

613

5.4

135.

413

3.1

136.

113

7.8

137.

513

5.0

134.

313

1.6

133.

813

6.1

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-3.8

3-3

.68

-1.2

7-0

.24

2.35

2.70

1.73

1.89

1.89

1.72

1.55

1.47

4.15

-1.9

81.

641.

76M

ANU

FAC

TUR

ING

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…30

6.3

325.

132

7.8

327.

932

9.0

331.

933

3.3

333.

133

3.7

335.

633

6.0

335.

535

5.1

327.

933

0.5

334.

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-1

3.97

-8.8

1-7

.27

-6.9

67.

432.

101.

651.

581.

431.

130.

830.

731.

31-7

.66

0.80

1.24

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…19

0.4

204.

820

6.8

207.

120

7.5

208.

820

9.5

209.

520

9.8

210.

921

1.0

210.

922

7.4

206.

520

8.2

210.

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-1

6.67

-10.

36-8

.05

-7.4

68.

961.

951.

301.

191.

100.

980.

760.

671.

47-9

.22

0.85

1.01

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

……

……

115.

812

0.2

121.

112

0.8

121.

512

3.1

123.

812

3.5

124.

012

4.8

125.

012

4.6

127.

712

1.4

122.

312

4.3

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-9.1

3-6

.04

-5.9

1-6

.08

4.92

2.34

2.26

2.26

2.01

1.39

0.95

0.84

1.02

-4.8

80.

711.

65TR

ADE,

TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

, UTI

LITI

ES…

……

……

……

616.

163

2.8

652.

263

9.6

645.

864

7.5

660.

764

5.5

649.

464

9.0

661.

664

6.5

638.

763

7.0

648.

465

1.4

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-2.6

8-0

.54

-0.5

5-1

.18

4.83

2.32

1.30

0.93

0.55

0.24

0.15

0.16

1.94

-0.2

61.

780.

46W

HO

LESA

LE T

RAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…11

5.7

116.

911

9.6

119.

112

0.1

122.

112

2.6

121.

812

2.5

123.

212

4.0

123.

112

1.0

118.

212

1.0

122.

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-4

.38

-3.5

7-1

.75

-1.3

13.

844.

402.

562.

262.

000.

921.

081.

101.

44-2

.31

2.34

1.56

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

322.

133

5.9

346.

733

8.4

342.

534

0.3

347.

133

7.2

339.

533

7.4

344.

033

4.2

335.

333

5.9

342.

133

9.5

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-3.1

31.

130.

75-0

.13

6.33

1.30

0.12

-0.3

7-0

.88

-0.8

6-0

.90

-0.9

0-0

.15

0.19

1.84

-0.7

5TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

……

……

……

178.

317

9.9

185.

918

2.0

183.

218

5.1

190.

918

6.5

187.

418

8.5

193.

618

9.2

182.

418

2.9

185.

318

9.0

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-0.7

1-1

.59

-2.1

4-3

.01

2.76

2.90

2.69

2.49

2.28

1.82

1.43

1.46

6.38

0.29

1.30

2.00

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

42.8

43.1

43.8

43.6

44.4

44.4

45.0

44.6

45.3

45.0

45.4

44.9

45.5

43.8

44.4

45.1

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-6.0

8-5

.69

-5.8

8-4

.34

3.86

3.10

2.61

2.13

1.94

1.39

0.98

0.78

0.72

-3.6

51.

231.

61FI

NAN

CIA

L AC

TIVI

TIES

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…17

2.5

174.

717

5.3

175.

417

6.6

177.

117

6.9

176.

717

8.0

178.

917

9.0

179.

017

2.2

174.

217

6.5

178.

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...0.

330.

461.

260.

722.

341.

350.

880.

730.

791.

011.

181.

342.

281.

151.

320.

93PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

……

……

……

387.

040

5.9

418.

040

7.4

414.

042

1.5

432.

442

4.5

431.

843

8.5

447.

443

7.9

426.

640

8.8

418.

943

5.6

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-8.7

5-5

.25

-4.0

9-3

.94

6.99

3.86

3.45

4.20

4.29

4.03

3.47

3.16

2.53

-4.1

82.

473.

99ED

UC

ATIO

N &

HEA

LTH

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

418.

342

9.3

439.

943

6.8

437.

243

9.9

451.

844

9.0

449.

945

0.5

460.

345

7.6

442.

243

3.9

441.

445

2.4

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-4.8

5-2

.56

-2.0

0-2

.50

4.51

2.47

2.71

2.80

2.92

2.40

1.87

1.90

1.46

-1.8

91.

742.

49LE

ISU

RE

& H

OSP

ITAL

ITY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…25

2.6

304.

731

6.1

313.

733

4.9

340.

933

8.8

332.

335

2.3

352.

734

4.4

338.

034

9.1

304.

533

2.1

345.

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-2

8.51

-14.

70-1

0.57

-9.0

132

.61

11.8

87.

195.

915.

183.

471.

651.

723.

37-1

2.76

9.05

4.01

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…10

7.1

117.

911

7.5

116.

811

9.4

120.

512

1.1

120.

412

3.1

122.

912

2.5

122.

012

1.2

115.

611

9.5

122.

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-1

2.31

-3.5

5-3

.12

-2.5

711

.52

2.24

3.08

3.10

3.05

2.02

1.16

1.31

2.38

-4.6

63.

362.

33G

OVE

RN

MEN

T……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…42

3.9

411.

243

7.5

433.

242

4.8

417.

244

3.5

439.

542

9.9

421.

844

7.9

443.

743

7.2

429.

342

9.6

434.

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...-2

.03

-2.9

1-2

.79

-2.6

00.

191.

461.

381.

461.

211.

121.

010.

950.

34-1

.81

0.07

1.20

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…50

.254

.051

.850

.150

.350

.450

.650

.350

.550

.650

.750

.550

.151

.550

.350

.5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

...0.

677.

082.

610.

030.

14-6

.61

-2.3

40.

450.

400.

340.

350.

241.

922.

89-2

.28

0.38

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

373.

735

7.2

385.

638

3.0

374.

536

6.6

392.

938

9.1

379.

437

1.1

397.

239

3.2

387.

237

7.8

379.

238

4.2

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

-2.3

9-4

.26

-3.4

9-2

.94

0.20

2.63

1.89

1.59

1.32

1.23

1.09

1.04

0.14

-2.4

20.

391.

31

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

ryFo

reca

st D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 6:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

…19

0.4

204.

820

6.8

207.

120

7.5

208.

820

9.5

209.

520

9.8

210.

921

1.0

210.

922

7.4

206.

520

8.2

210.

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

6.67

-10.

36-8

.05

-7.4

68.

961.

951.

301.

191.

100.

980.

760.

671.

47-9

.22

0.85

1.01

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

……

…12

.713

.313

.413

.113

.213

.112

.912

.612

.712

.712

.612

.412

.612

.913

.112

.6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

334.

715.

976.

133.

80-1

.47

-3.5

7-4

.06

-3.8

6-3

.09

-2.4

1-1

.45

0.20

3.09

1.10

-3.3

6

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

…13

.914

.514

.514

.514

.614

.714

.714

.714

.914

.914

.814

.814

.314

.314

.614

.8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-3

.70

1.16

2.43

2.55

5.30

1.34

0.91

1.42

1.54

1.29

1.01

0.86

0.53

-0.1

62.

491.

32

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

….…

……

……

……

…11

.512

.112

.212

.112

.011

.911

.811

.811

.611

.611

.511

.511

.311

.812

.011

.6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

766.

768.

278.

453.

95-1

.25

-3.3

0-3

.23

-3.3

7-3

.11

-2.5

8-2

.39

2.72

3.82

1.80

-3.0

8

FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

…37

.038

.538

.437

.837

.837

.937

.737

.537

.537

.637

.437

.238

.037

.837

.837

.5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-2

.89

0.87

1.43

1.40

2.21

-1.4

9-1

.88

-0.7

7-0

.77

-0.6

9-0

.78

-0.9

63.

78-0

.52

0.03

-0.7

5

MAC

HIN

ERY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…25

.726

.626

.026

.026

.326

.025

.726

.026

.426

.125

.926

.126

.626

.026

.026

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-4

.82

0.38

0.07

-0.0

12.

45-2

.33

-0.7

90.

310.

400.

500.

420.

372.

90-1

.99

-0.1

90.

41

CO

MPU

TER

& E

LEC

TRO

NIC

PR

OD

UC

TS…

…5.

65.

85.

85.

85.

95.

95.

85.

85.

85.

75.

75.

75.

75.

75.

95.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

.75

2.96

3.98

5.96

4.52

1.61

0.36

-0.4

0-1

.69

-2.7

2-2

.68

-2.2

57.

960.

543.

06-1

.87

ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

……

……

17.6

17.9

17.5

17.4

17.3

17.3

17.2

17.0

17.0

17.0

16.8

16.7

17.6

17.6

17.3

17.0

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-0.1

91.

891.

19-0

.35

-1.3

7-3

.36

-2.0

9-2

.14

-1.9

5-1

.85

-1.9

8-1

.93

-5.8

50.

29-1

.80

-1.9

8

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IPM

ENT…

……

……

…40

.148

.451

.753

.653

.955

.357

.157

.757

.458

.459

.660

.075

.153

.455

.058

.3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-4

6.98

-35.

96-2

9.54

-27.

0834

.20

14.1

810

.43

7.71

6.56

5.56

4.32

4.01

1.46

-28.

872.

856.

01

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

9.6

10.2

10.0

9.9

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.6

9.7

9.7

9.8

9.9

9.7

9.9

9.7

9.7

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-0.3

54.

811.

870.

360.

63-5

.68

-4.8

6-2

.32

0.62

1.61

3.23

2.33

0.95

2.11

-2.4

40.

76

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

16.7

17.5

17.2

16.9

16.9

17.1

16.9

16.8

16.9

17.1

16.9

16.7

16.6

17.0

16.9

16.9

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

1.21

3.55

2.29

1.86

0.84

-2.5

3-1

.21

-0.6

8-0

.05

0.07

-0.1

9-0

.43

1.63

2.13

-0.2

9-0

.21

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 7:

Ten

ness

ee N

ondu

rabl

e G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

115.

812

0.2

121.

112

0.8

121.

512

3.1

123.

812

3.5

124.

012

4.8

125.

012

4.6

127.

712

1.4

122.

312

4.3

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-9.1

3-6

.04

-5.9

1-6

.08

4.92

2.34

2.26

2.26

2.01

1.39

0.95

0.84

1.02

-4.8

80.

711.

65

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

33.3

33.3

33.4

33.4

33.8

34.4

34.7

34.6

34.7

35.0

35.1

35.0

35.9

34.0

34.1

34.8

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-6.8

0-7

.85

-7.9

2-7

.28

1.50

3.41

3.90

3.64

2.50

1.72

1.24

0.98

0.54

-5.2

10.

232.

26

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

……

……

…7.

17.

37.

57.

37.

57.

77.

77.

57.

77.

87.

87.

67.

47.

47.

57.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-2

.73

-3.0

8-2

.45

-4.5

25.

104.

672.

512.

682.

641.

821.

171.

122.

540.

151.

852.

07

PAPE

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

.612

.712

.512

.612

.712

.812

.612

.612

.612

.712

.412

.412

.612

.612

.712

.6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

07-1

.04

-1.7

1-1

.26

0.43

0.83

0.33

-0.0

9-0

.61

-1.2

0-1

.30

-1.2

54.

140.

430.

08-0

.80

PRIN

TIN

G &

REL

ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

…6.

97.

07.

06.

96.

86.

86.

96.

86.

76.

76.

86.

78.

97.

46.

96.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-2

2.10

-21.

72-2

1.40

-21.

13-1

.49

-1.9

7-1

.72

-1.5

5-1

.42

-1.6

3-1

.65

-1.6

2-0

.74

-16.

77-7

.45

-1.5

6

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…25

.825

.925

.925

.926

.026

.126

.126

.126

.226

.426

.426

.425

.925

.926

.026

.3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-0

.51

-0.3

8-0

.63

-0.8

00.

660.

780.

800.

951.

041.

000.

981.

021.

53-0

.06

0.36

0.99

PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

…19

.721

.722

.022

.122

.122

.522

.822

.923

.123

.223

.323

.424

.822

.022

.423

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-2

1.33

-12.

03-1

0.25

-9.4

812

.36

3.51

3.45

3.75

4.33

3.13

2.07

1.76

-0.0

3-1

1.56

1.86

3.31

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

…10

.412

.412

.712

.712

.712

.813

.013

.013

.013

.113

.213

.212

.112

.112

.813

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

4.09

3.92

2.15

-2.4

422

.05

3.29

2.82

2.82

2.75

2.19

1.53

1.57

0.83

-0.3

45.

652.

32

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…28

58.7

2984

.230

33.0

3045

.530

59.7

3083

.531

06.8

3118

.431

28.7

3139

.231

48.8

3159

.431

23.0

3007

.030

73.9

3133

.8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-3

2.35

18.7

66.

701.

671.

883.

153.

051.

501.

331.

341.

231.

351.

95-3

.71

2.23

1.95

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-8.2

6-4

.60

-3.4

5-3

.38

7.03

3.33

2.43

2.39

2.26

1.80

1.35

1.31

1.95

-3.7

12.

231.

95

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…13

0.5

130.

613

2.6

133.

013

3.5

134.

213

4.9

135.

513

6.1

136.

513

6.9

137.

513

4.2

131.

713

3.9

136.

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-8

.33

0.51

6.03

1.38

1.55

1.93

2.06

2.01

1.56

1.24

1.40

1.68

4.03

-1.8

01.

631.

76%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.88

-2.8

7-1

.27

-0.2

42.

352.

701.

731.

891.

891.

721.

551.

474.

03-1

.80

1.63

1.76

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…30

6.7

324.

332

7.4

328.

532

9.6

331.

133

2.8

333.

733

4.4

334.

933

5.5

336.

135

5.1

327.

833

0.5

334.

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-4

2.99

25.0

23.

871.

411.

291.

881.

991.

130.

770.

660.

750.

741.

31-7

.67

0.82

1.24

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-14.

02-8

.86

-7.2

3-6

.92

7.47

2.11

1.64

1.57

1.44

1.14

0.83

0.73

1.31

-7.6

70.

821.

24

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

190.

620

4.3

206.

620

7.4

207.

820

8.3

209.

320

9.8

210.

121

0.4

210.

821

1.2

227.

420

6.4

208.

221

0.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-47.

4831

.94

4.56

1.48

0.91

0.97

1.76

1.06

0.65

0.48

0.83

0.69

1.48

-9.2

50.

881.

01%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

6.75

-10.

44-7

.99

-7.4

09.

021.

971.

281.

171.

110.

990.

760.

661.

48-9

.25

0.88

1.01

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…11

6.0

120.

012

0.8

121.

212

1.8

122.

812

3.5

123.

912

4.2

124.

512

4.7

124.

912

7.7

121.

412

2.3

124.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-3

4.52

14.2

52.

721.

281.

963.

432.

391.

250.

980.

950.

600.

811.

02-4

.87

0.70

1.65

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-9.1

1-6

.05

-5.9

0-6

.07

4.92

2.34

2.26

2.26

2.01

1.39

0.95

0.84

1.02

-4.8

70.

701.

65

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

617.

763

5.1

642.

464

4.9

647.

564

9.9

650.

865

0.9

651.

165

1.4

651.

765

1.9

639.

363

6.9

648.

265

1.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-19.

7411

.80

4.67

1.53

1.64

1.48

0.56

0.05

0.12

0.23

0.18

0.11

2.06

-0.3

71.

770.

47%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.99

-0.5

1-0

.55

-1.1

84.

832.

321.

300.

930.

550.

240.

150.

162.

06-0

.37

1.77

0.47

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…11

5.9

116.

811

9.0

119.

712

0.3

121.

912

2.1

122.

412

2.7

123.

012

3.4

123.

712

0.9

118.

212

1.0

122.

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

6.66

3.14

8.04

2.14

2.14

5.38

0.63

0.96

1.10

1.01

1.26

1.02

1.40

-2.2

42.

331.

56%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-4

.19

-3.6

0-1

.75

-1.3

13.

844.

402.

562.

262.

000.

921.

081.

101.

40-2

.24

2.33

1.56

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

322.

633

7.8

341.

134

2.0

343.

034

2.2

341.

534

0.7

340.

033

9.3

338.

533

7.7

335.

633

6.0

342.

233

9.6

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-21.

2320

.32

3.92

1.03

1.20

-0.9

1-0

.81

-0.9

4-0

.87

-0.8

2-0

.95

-0.9

4-0

.03

0.11

1.84

-0.7

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-3

.37

1.20

0.75

-0.1

36.

331.

300.

12-0

.37

-0.8

8-0

.86

-0.9

0-0

.90

-0.0

30.

111.

84-0

.75

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…17

9.2

180.

518

2.3

183.

218

4.2

185.

818

7.2

187.

818

8.4

189.

118

9.9

190.

518

2.8

182.

718

5.1

188.

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

8.95

2.93

3.91

2.08

2.12

3.49

3.07

1.28

1.30

1.65

1.51

1.39

6.59

-0.0

21.

282.

00%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

.52

-1.5

6-2

.14

-3.0

12.

762.

902.

692.

492.

281.

821.

431.

466.

59-0

.02

1.28

2.00

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…42

.543

.143

.643

.944

.244

.544

.744

.945

.045

.145

.245

.245

.543

.844

.345

.0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-2

6.48

5.76

4.18

3.38

2.14

2.70

2.23

1.45

1.39

0.51

0.58

0.63

0.91

-3.7

71.

211.

61%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-6

.18

-5.8

9-5

.88

-4.3

43.

863.

102.

612.

131.

941.

390.

980.

780.

91-3

.77

1.21

1.61

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…17

2.4

174.

317

5.4

176.

117

6.4

176.

717

6.9

177.

317

7.8

178.

417

9.0

179.

717

2.3

174.

217

6.5

178.

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-5

.38

4.48

2.52

1.52

0.87

0.50

0.64

0.92

1.12

1.37

1.33

1.56

2.35

1.11

1.32

0.93

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.25

0.60

1.26

0.72

2.34

1.35

0.88

0.73

0.79

1.01

1.18

1.34

2.35

1.11

1.32

0.93

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)

Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

388.

640

5.2

411.

641

2.7

415.

842

0.9

425.

843

0.0

433.

643

7.8

440.

544

3.6

426.

840

8.8

418.

843

5.5

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-33.

0318

.21

6.41

1.09

3.03

4.97

4.75

4.05

3.41

3.91

2.52

2.79

2.58

-4.2

22.

453.

99%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-8

.62

-5.3

4-4

.09

-3.9

46.

993.

863.

454.

204.

294.

033.

473.

162.

58-4

.22

2.45

3.99

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

419.

443

2.0

435.

243

7.0

438.

344

2.7

447.

044

9.2

451.

245

3.3

455.

445

7.8

441.

943

3.7

441.

345

2.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-23.

2812

.57

3.00

1.59

1.28

4.04

3.97

1.95

1.76

1.92

1.85

2.08

1.38

-1.8

61.

742.

49%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-4

.87

-2.4

9-2

.00

-2.5

04.

512.

472.

712.

802.

922.

401.

871.

901.

38-1

.86

1.74

2.49

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…24

6.5

297.

931

7.9

323.

232

6.9

333.

234

0.8

342.

334

3.8

344.

834

6.4

348.

234

9.0

304.

433

1.0

344.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-7

6.80

113.

2229

.80

6.75

4.69

8.00

9.38

1.75

1.81

1.15

1.91

2.01

3.36

-12.

788.

764.

02%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

8.83

-14.

81-1

0.57

-9.0

132

.61

11.8

87.

195.

915.

183.

471.

651.

723.

36-1

2.78

8.76

4.02

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

106.

111

7.3

117.

711

8.0

118.

411

9.9

121.

312

1.6

122.

012

2.3

122.

712

3.2

121.

211

5.5

119.

412

2.2

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-40.

9449

.04

1.41

0.94

1.38

5.27

4.82

1.02

1.17

1.12

1.34

1.62

2.36

-4.6

83.

322.

33%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

2.46

-3.5

4-3

.12

-2.5

711

.52

2.24

3.08

3.10

3.05

2.02

1.16

1.31

2.36

-4.6

83.

322.

33

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…42

8.2

424.

342

6.2

427.

142

9.1

430.

543

2.0

433.

343

4.3

435.

443

6.4

437.

443

7.8

429.

342

9.7

434.

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-9

.01

-3.5

91.

750.

851.

871.

361.

431.

160.

901.

000.

960.

940.

41-1

.93

0.09

1.20

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-2.0

8-3

.08

-2.7

9-2

.60

0.19

1.46

1.38

1.46

1.21

1.12

1.01

0.95

0.41

-1.9

30.

091.

20

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…50

.354

.051

.650

.350

.350

.450

.450

.550

.550

.650

.650

.650

.151

.550

.450

.6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…0.

0032

.86

-16.

12-1

0.15

0.42

0.51

0.31

0.56

0.22

0.27

0.34

0.14

1.95

2.90

-2.2

80.

38%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

607.

012.

610.

030.

14-6

.61

-2.3

40.

450.

400.

340.

350.

241.

952.

90-2

.28

0.38

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…37

8.0

370.

437

4.5

376.

837

8.7

380.

138

1.6

382.

838

3.7

384.

838

5.8

386.

838

7.7

377.

837

9.3

384.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

0.13

-7.8

04.

572.

442.

061.

481.

581.

240.

991.

101.

041.

040.

21-2

.55

0.41

1.31

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-2.4

3-4

.40

-3.4

9-2

.94

0.20

2.63

1.89

1.59

1.32

1.23

1.09

1.04

0.21

-2.5

50.

411.

31

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel



Tabl

e 9:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

190.

620

4.3

206.

620

7.4

207.

820

8.3

209.

320

9.8

210.

121

0.4

210.

821

1.2

227.

420

6.4

208.

221

0.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…-4

7.48

31.9

44.

561.

480.

910.

971.

761.

060.

650.

480.

830.

691.

48-9

.25

0.88

1.01

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-1

6.75

-10.

44-7

.99

-7.4

09.

021.

971.

281.

171.

110.

990.

760.

661.

48-9

.25

0.88

1.01

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

…12

.713

.213

.313

.313

.213

.012

.912

.712

.712

.612

.512

.612

.512

.913

.112

.6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

5.83

16.5

04.

50-1

.53

-3.1

6-5

.43

-4.1

1-3

.53

-2.3

4-2

.37

-1.4

00.

340.

203.

081.

12-3

.36

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…1.

334.

655.

976.

133.

80-1

.47

-3.5

7-4

.06

-3.8

6-3

.09

-2.4

1-1

.45

0.20

3.08

1.12

-3.3

6

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

S……

……

……

13.8

14.4

14.6

14.6

14.6

14.6

14.7

14.8

14.8

14.8

14.9

14.9

14.3

14.3

14.6

14.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…-9

.71

18.5

73.

76-0

.43

0.35

1.74

2.00

1.61

0.82

0.75

0.87

1.00

0.52

-0.1

52.

491.

32%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-3.7

21.

182.

432.

555.

301.

340.

911.

421.

541.

291.

010.

860.

52-0

.15

2.49

1.32

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

….…

……

……

…11

.612

.112

.212

.112

.011

.911

.811

.711

.611

.611

.511

.511

.311

.812

.011

.6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

14.7

218

.94

4.88

-3.3

5-3

.16

-3.1

4-3

.53

-3.0

8-3

.74

-2.1

0-1

.39

-2.3

32.

723.

821.

80-3

.08

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…1.

796.

698.

278.

453.

95-1

.25

-3.3

0-3

.23

-3.3

7-3

.11

-2.5

8-2

.39

2.72

3.82

1.80

-3.0

8

FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

S……

……

……

…..

37.0

38.3

38.4

37.9

37.9

37.8

37.7

37.7

37.6

37.5

37.4

37.3

38.0

37.8

37.8

37.5

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…-4

.06

14.6

51.

07-4

.89

-0.9

6-1

.07

-0.5

4-0

.50

-0.9

7-0

.75

-0.8

8-1

.22

3.78

-0.5

20.

04-0

.75

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-2

.86

0.81

1.43

1.40

2.21

-1.4

9-1

.88

-0.7

7-0

.77

-0.6

9-0

.78

-0.9

63.

78-0

.52

0.04

-0.7

5

MAC

HIN

ERY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

25.4

26.6

26.2

26.0

26.0

26.0

26.0

26.1

26.1

26.1

26.1

26.2

26.6

26.0

26.0

26.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…-9

.22

21.0

6-5

.52

-3.7

40.

070.

010.

570.

590.

440.

410.

260.

392.

88-1

.98

-0.2

00.

41%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-4.7

90.

380.

07-0

.01

2.45

-2.3

3-0

.79

0.31

0.40

0.50

0.42

0.37

2.88

-1.9

8-0

.20

0.41

CO

MPU

TER

S &

ELEC

TRO

NIC

S……

……

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.9

5.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…7.

5813

.15

2.08

1.45

1.86

1.07

-2.8

5-1

.61

-3.3

0-3

.11

-2.6

90.

127.

970.

543.

07-1

.87

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-1

.74

2.94

3.98

5.96

4.52

1.61

0.36

-0.4

0-1

.69

-2.7

2-2

.68

-2.2

57.

970.

543.

07-1

.87

ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

……

17.5

917

.84

17.5

317

.45

17.3

517

.24

17.1

617

.08

17.0

116

.92

16.8

216

.75

17.5

717

.62

17.3

016

.96

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…1.

725.

79-6

.67

-1.8

0-2

.41

-2.4

9-1

.66

-2.0

0-1

.65

-2.0

7-2

.21

-1.7

7-5

.85

0.29

-1.8

0-1

.98

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-0

.19

1.86

1.19

-0.3

5-1

.37

-3.3

6-2

.09

-2.1

4-1

.95

-1.8

5-1

.98

-1.9

3-5

.85

0.29

-1.8

0-1

.98

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IP…

……

……

…40

.55

48.5

651

.35

53.2

854

.42

55.4

456

.71

57.3

957

.99

58.5

259

.16

59.6

975

.13

53.3

854

.96

58.2

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

-90.

5110

5.58

25.0

715

.91

8.83

7.74

9.43

4.91

4.23

3.75

4.41

3.66

1.48

-28.

952.

966.

01%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-46.

94-3

5.98

-29.

54-2

7.08

34.2

014

.18

10.4

37.

716.

565.

564.

324.

011.

48-2

8.95

2.96

6.01

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

……

……

…9.

6010

.19

10.0

09.

869.

669.

619.

529.

639.

729.

769.

829.

869.

709.

909.

669.

74%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

-8.7

726

.55

-6.9

9-5

.51

-7.7

8-2

.37

-3.6

94.

973.

851.

532.

611.

340.

972.

11-2

.44

0.76

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-0

.33

4.79

1.87

0.36

0.63

-5.6

8-4

.86

-2.3

20.

621.

613.

232.

330.

972.

11-2

.44

0.76

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

S……

……

…16

.79

17.3

217

.12

17.0

516

.93

16.8

816

.92

16.9

316

.93

16.8

916

.88

16.8

616

.64

16.9

916

.95

16.9

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

1.30

13.1

6-4

.49

-1.6

7-2

.70

-1.2

30.

800.

44-0

.20

-0.7

6-0

.22

-0.5

21.

632.

13-0

.28

-0.2

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

1.24

3.50

2.29

1.86

0.84

-2.5

3-1

.21

-0.6

8-0

.05

0.07

-0.1

9-0

.43

1.63

2.13

-0.2

8-0

.21

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 10

: Te

nnes

see

Non

dura

ble

Goo

ds M

anuf

actu

ring

Empl

oym

ent,

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

…11

6.0

120.

012

0.8

121.

212

1.8

122.

812

3.5

123.

912

4.2

124.

512

4.7

124.

912

7.7

121.

412

2.3

124.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-34.

5214

.25

2.72

1.28

1.96

3.43

2.39

1.25

0.98

0.95

0.60

0.81

1.02

-4.8

70.

701.

65%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-9.1

1-6

.05

-5.9

0-6

.07

4.92

2.34

2.26

2.26

2.01

1.39

0.95

0.84

1.02

-4.8

70.

701.

65

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…33

.533

.233

.233

.534

.034

.334

.534

.734

.834

.935

.035

.135

.934

.034

.134

.8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-26.

43-3

.39

0.85

3.09

5.68

4.09

2.78

2.05

1.09

0.97

0.86

1.02

0.53

-5.2

00.

222.

26%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-6.8

2-7

.82

-7.9

2-7

.28

1.50

3.41

3.90

3.64

2.50

1.72

1.24

0.98

0.53

-5.2

00.

222.

26

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

……

……

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

1.13

6.35

12.5

00.

871.

094.

643.

491.

530.

941.

340.

871.

352.

530.

231.

802.

07%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-2.7

2-3

.09

-2.4

5-4

.52

5.10

4.67

2.51

2.68

2.64

1.82

1.17

1.12

2.53

0.23

1.80

2.07

PAPE

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

12.6

12.6

12.6

12.6

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.6

12.6

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.6

12.6

12.7

12.6

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-5

.73

-0.9

01.

090.

640.

900.

71-0

.90

-1.0

4-1

.21

-1.6

3-1

.33

-0.8

14.

130.

410.

08-0

.80

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

16-1

.11

-1.7

1-1

.26

0.43

0.83

0.33

-0.0

9-0

.61

-1.2

0-1

.30

-1.2

54.

130.

410.

08-0

.80

PRIN

TIN

G &

REL

ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

8.9

7.4

6.9

6.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-5

9.62

0.33

-2.5

8-1

.94

-1.7

6-1

.61

-1.5

6-1

.25

-1.2

6-2

.43

-1.6

7-1

.13

-0.7

3-1

6.75

-7.4

6-1

.56

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

2.05

-21.

74-2

1.40

-21.

13-1

.49

-1.9

7-1

.72

-1.5

5-1

.42

-1.6

3-1

.65

-1.6

2-0

.73

-16.

75-7

.46

-1.5

6

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

25.8

25.8

25.9

25.9

26.0

26.1

26.1

26.2

26.2

26.3

26.4

26.4

25.9

25.9

26.0

26.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-5

.04

0.66

0.91

0.41

0.67

1.15

0.99

0.99

1.04

0.97

0.93

1.13

1.53

-0.0

60.

360.

99%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-0.5

1-0

.36

-0.6

3-0

.80

0.66

0.78

0.80

0.95

1.04

1.00

0.98

1.02

1.53

-0.0

60.

360.

99

PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

19.7

21.7

22.0

22.1

22.1

22.5

22.8

22.9

23.0

23.2

23.3

23.3

24.8

22.0

22.4

23.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-5

7.86

49.5

65.

431.

040.

037.

725.

192.

232.

272.

860.

931.

00-0

.03

-11.

561.

873.

31%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-21.

30-1

2.07

-10.

25-9

.48

12.3

63.

513.

453.

754.

333.

132.

071.

76-0

.03

-11.

561.

873.

31

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

10.4

12.4

12.6

12.6

12.7

12.8

13.0

13.0

13.0

13.1

13.1

13.2

12.1

12.1

12.8

13.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-5

8.39

102.

406.

081.

411.

923.

824.

171.

391.

661.

581.

501.

530.

83-0

.34

5.67

2.32

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

4.07

4.04

2.15

-2.4

422

.05

3.29

2.82

2.82

2.75

2.19

1.53

1.57

0.83

-0.3

45.

672.

32

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 11

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4795

348

622

4817

847

495

4822

347

887

4801

747

430

4840

448

271

4859

748

175

4736

748

062

4788

948

362

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.06

2.26

1.71

1.85

0.56

-1.5

1-0

.33

-0.1

40.

370.

801.

211.

570.

861.

47-0

.36

0.99

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

5726

253

872

5450

055

178

5637

155

224

5470

155

004

5630

755

350

5495

955

331

5492

855

203

5532

555

487

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.01

-1.4

61.

342.

17-1

.56

2.51

0.37

-0.3

2-0

.11

0.23

0.47

0.60

1.82

0.50

0.22

0.29

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

5530

457

340

5685

357

428

5771

157

685

5742

657

483

5783

657

993

5797

858

206

5493

456

731

5757

658

004

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.0

74.

414.

154.

644.

350.

601.

010.

100.

220.

540.

961.

26-0

.31

3.27

1.49

0.74

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

…56

504

5846

357

958

5853

258

754

5875

758

492

5858

858

884

5907

059

065

5934

555

334

5786

458

648

5909

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

236.

375.

555.

193.

980.

500.

920.

100.

220.

530.

981.

29-0

.26

4.57

1.35

0.76

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

5321

855

492

5497

055

559

5594

955

889

5565

255

652

5609

756

211

5618

356

329

5422

454

810

5578

556

205

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-2.3

41.

191.

773.

755.

130.

721.

240.

170.

270.

580.

951.

22-0

.40

1.08

1.78

0.75

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4320

042

478

4238

241

665

4266

642

474

4266

241

945

4303

242

889

4305

942

374

4337

442

431

4243

742

838

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-2.4

7-3

.87

-1.8

6-0

.39

-1.2

4-0

.01

0.66

0.67

0.86

0.98

0.93

1.02

0.18

-2.1

70.

010.

95W

HO

LESA

LE T

RAD

E……

……

……

……

…69

550

6990

569

579

6953

670

243

7010

669

939

6979

870

528

7043

070

334

7026

367

940

6964

270

022

7038

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

841.

642.

555.

101.

000.

290.

520.

380.

410.

460.

560.

670.

802.

510.

540.

52R

ETAI

L TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

……

…28

811

2801

228

506

2791

628

660

2841

328

536

2793

928

721

2849

028

636

2802

729

356

2831

228

387

2846

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-4

.57

-6.1

3-3

.04

-0.2

7-0

.53

1.43

0.10

0.08

0.21

0.27

0.35

0.32

-1.0

0-3

.56

0.27

0.29

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…52

236

5081

850

613

4937

950

667

5064

150

638

4952

350

945

5096

751

037

5001

252

843

5076

250

367

5074

0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-3

.29

-6.2

1-2

.42

-3.7

6-3

.00

-0.3

50.

050.

290.

550.

640.

790.

99-0

.77

-3.9

4-0

.78

0.74

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

6833

669

432

6887

668

443

6919

968

148

6846

867

888

6875

167

893

6842

467

967

6822

768

772

6842

668

258

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.96

3.58

-0.8

7-0

.39

1.26

-1.8

5-0

.59

-0.8

1-0

.65

-0.3

7-0

.06

0.12

0.65

0.80

-0.5

0-0

.24

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

7050

573

306

7184

771

772

7161

971

083

7082

970

979

7154

071

665

7189

872

518

6882

471

857

7112

771

905

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.77

6.25

6.48

4.23

1.58

-3.0

3-1

.42

-1.1

1-0

.11

0.82

1.51

2.17

1.71

4.41

-1.0

21.

09PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

…58

583

6124

559

894

5909

060

828

6031

960

007

5922

461

448

6140

061

601

6127

657

572

5970

360

095

6143

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

786.

303.

684.

073.

83-1

.51

0.19

0.23

1.02

1.79

2.66

3.46

3.20

3.70

0.66

2.22

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4787

748

100

4821

047

400

4794

648

049

4822

447

421

4807

748

361

4871

448

027

4749

947

897

4791

048

295

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.68

0.54

1.20

0.93

0.14

-0.1

10.

030.

040.

270.

651.

021.

280.

460.

840.

030.

80LE

ISU

RE

& H

OSP

ITAL

ITY…

……

……

……

…25

456

2098

921

047

2173

722

312

2120

721

464

2230

522

914

2176

221

847

2250

624

332

2230

721

822

2225

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

83-1

3.19

-12.

52-8

.85

-12.

351.

041.

982.

612.

702.

621.

790.

90-0

.82

-8.3

2-2

.18

1.99

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

…44

248

4415

543

788

4408

444

185

4316

843

438

4380

344

280

4360

143

940

4439

242

012

4406

943

648

4405

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…4.

226.

096.

452.

93-0

.14

-2.2

4-0

.80

-0.6

40.

221.

001.

161.

340.

764.

90-0

.95

0.93

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4375

744

074

4574

843

052

4345

644

534

4549

542

971

4353

044

645

4567

443

151

4394

044

158

4411

444

250

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.29

-0.2

50.

540.

42-0

.69

1.04

-0.5

5-0

.19

0.17

0.25

0.39

0.42

0.87

0.50

-0.1

00.

31FE

DER

AL, C

IVIL

IAN

……

……

……

……

……

7485

675

607

7566

475

937

7665

776

691

7682

276

790

7743

077

404

7753

777

468

7463

275

516

7674

077

459

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.7

11.

131.

942.

412.

401.

431.

531.

121.

010.

930.

930.

88-1

.76

1.18

1.62

0.94

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

3980

939

835

4122

838

644

3911

540

214

4120

838

619

3914

640

284

4135

238

768

3997

239

879

3978

939

888

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.69

-0.9

0-0

.95

-0.7

1-1

.74

0.95

-0.0

5-0

.06

0.08

0.18

0.35

0.39

1.35

-0.2

3-0

.23

0.25

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

ryFo

reca

st D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…47

644

4859

448

052

4798

447

917

4788

947

904

4791

548

091

4827

748

487

4866

847

349

4806

847

906

4838

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…4.

638.

23-4

.39

-0.5

6-0

.56

-0.2

30.

130.

091.

471.

561.

751.

500.

831.

52-0

.34

0.99

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.28

2.27

1.67

1.86

0.57

-1.4

5-0

.31

-0.1

40.

360.

811.

221.

570.

831.

52-0

.34

0.99

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…56

232

5389

955

014

5539

855

357

5525

255

218

5522

255

293

5537

855

477

5555

154

943

5513

655

262

5542

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…15

.68

-15.

598.

542.

82-0

.29

-0.7

5-0

.25

0.03

0.51

0.62

0.72

0.53

1.93

0.35

0.23

0.29

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.19

-2.4

30.

512.

17-1

.56

2.51

0.37

-0.3

2-0

.11

0.23

0.47

0.60

1.93

0.35

0.23

0.29

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…55

218

5726

056

987

5750

257

591

5759

657

558

5756

057

721

5790

058

108

5828

754

935

5674

257

576

5800

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

7415

.63

-1.8

93.

660.

630.

03-0

.27

0.01

1.12

1.25

1.45

1.23

-0.3

13.

291.

470.

74%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-0

.08

4.47

4.21

4.58

4.30

0.59

1.00

0.10

0.22

0.53

0.96

1.26

-0.3

13.

291.

470.

74

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

5645

758

398

5810

258

568

5865

758

676

5863

558

629

5879

458

981

5920

459

389

5533

657

881

5864

959

092

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

5.38

14.4

7-2

.01

3.25

0.61

0.13

-0.2

8-0

.04

1.13

1.28

1.52

1.25

-0.2

64.

601.

330.

76%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

226.

475.

645.

113.

900.

480.

920.

100.

230.

520.

971.

30-0

.26

4.60

1.33

0.76

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…53

068

5539

255

089

5569

355

793

5578

855

766

5578

655

941

5610

956

297

5646

654

225

5481

055

783

5620

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-4

.51

18.7

0-2

.17

4.46

0.72

-0.0

4-0

.15

0.14

1.12

1.21

1.35

1.20

-0.4

01.

081.

780.

75%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.34

1.18

1.77

3.74

5.14

0.71

1.23

0.17

0.27

0.58

0.95

1.22

-0.4

01.

081.

780.

75

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4284

542

368

4222

442

297

4231

542

364

4250

342

581

4267

842

778

4289

843

017

4332

042

433

4244

142

843

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

3.63

-4.3

8-1

.36

0.70

0.17

0.46

1.32

0.74

0.91

0.94

1.13

1.11

0.06

-2.0

50.

020.

95%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.29

-3.5

5-1

.90

-0.3

9-1

.24

-0.0

10.

660.

670.

860.

980.

931.

020.

06-2

.05

0.02

0.95

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…69

225

6978

469

678

6984

269

915

6998

570

039

7010

570

199

7030

870

435

7057

267

979

6963

270

011

7037

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…17

.76

3.27

-0.6

10.

940.

420.

400.

310.

380.

530.

630.

720.

780.

832.

430.

540.

52%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

701.

442.

585.

101.

000.

290.

520.

380.

410.

460.

560.

670.

832.

430.

540.

52

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

2851

427

972

2834

628

375

2836

428

372

2837

528

398

2842

428

449

2847

528

488

2931

828

302

2837

728

459

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

0.87

-7.3

95.

460.

41-0

.16

0.12

0.04

0.32

0.37

0.35

0.37

0.18

-1.1

5-3

.46

0.27

0.29

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-4.4

4-5

.90

-3.1

0-0

.27

-0.5

31.

430.

100.

080.

210.

270.

350.

32-1

.15

-3.4

60.

270.

29

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…51

886

5055

450

436

5036

050

327

5037

750

461

5050

750

604

5070

250

858

5100

552

714

5080

950

418

5079

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-3

.34

-9.8

8-0

.93

-0.6

0-0

.26

0.40

0.67

0.37

0.77

0.78

1.24

1.16

-0.9

6-3

.61

-0.7

70.

74%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.78

-5.4

3-2

.45

-3.7

6-3

.00

-0.3

50.

050.

290.

550.

640.

790.

99-0

.96

-3.6

1-0

.77

0.74

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…67

840

6981

368

769

6883

768

697

6852

268

362

6827

968

252

6826

568

318

6835

868

172

6881

568

465

6829

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-7

.13

12.1

5-5

.85

0.39

-0.8

1-1

.02

-0.9

3-0

.48

-0.1

60.

080.

310.

230.

460.

94-0

.51

-0.2

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

213.

69-0

.66

-0.3

91.

26-1

.85

-0.5

9-0

.81

-0.6

5-0

.37

-0.0

60.

120.

460.

94-0

.51

-0.2

4

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…70

236

7336

372

026

7174

471

346

7113

871

005

7095

171

267

7172

072

077

7249

068

776

7184

271

110

7188

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…8.

4019

.03

-7.0

9-1

.55

-2.2

0-1

.16

-0.7

5-0

.30

1.79

2.57

2.01

2.31

1.63

4.46

-1.0

21.

09%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

996.

346.

334.

231.

58-3

.03

-1.4

2-1

.11

-0.1

10.

821.

512.

171.

634.

46-1

.02

1.09

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)

Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2019

2020

2021

2022

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

5783

860

988

5999

260

013

6005

460

066

6010

660

149

6066

661

142

6170

262

233

5754

159

708

6009

461

436

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.21

23.6

3-6

.37

0.14

0.27

0.08

0.27

0.29

3.48

3.18

3.72

3.48

3.15

3.77

0.65

2.23

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.05

6.16

3.78

4.07

3.83

-1.5

10.

190.

231.

021.

792.

663.

463.

153.

770.

652.

23

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4786

047

970

4790

947

909

4792

847

919

4792

247

930

4805

948

231

4841

048

543

4752

847

912

4792

548

311

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

3.36

0.93

-0.5

10.

000.

17-0

.08

0.03

0.06

1.09

1.43

1.49

1.11

0.53

0.81

0.03

0.80

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.61

0.57

1.12

0.93

0.14

-0.1

10.

030.

040.

270.

651.

021.

280.

530.

810.

030.

80

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…24

711

2150

621

527

2161

121

659

2172

921

954

2217

622

243

2229

822

346

2237

524

328

2233

921

879

2231

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…18

.02

-42.

630.

401.

570.

891.

314.

194.

111.

220.

990.

870.

53-0

.80

-8.1

8-2

.06

1.99

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.42

-12.

80-1

2.41

-8.8

5-1

2.35

1.04

1.98

2.61

2.70

2.62

1.79

0.90

-0.8

0-8

.18

-2.0

61.

99

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

4379

744

558

4401

244

023

4373

543

561

4366

043

743

4382

943

998

4416

544

331

4201

344

097

4367

544

081

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

9.94

7.13

-4.8

10.

10-2

.60

-1.5

80.

910.

760.

791.

551.

521.

510.

774.

96-0

.96

0.93

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

4.28

6.26

6.44

2.93

-0.1

4-2

.24

-0.8

0-0

.64

0.22

1.00

1.16

1.34

0.77

4.96

-0.9

60.

93

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…44

383

4363

244

328

4419

144

077

4408

744

083

4410

844

152

4419

744

256

4429

343

865

4413

344

089

4422

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…3.

47-6

.60

6.54

-1.2

3-1

.03

0.09

-0.0

30.

220.

400.

400.

540.

330.

810.

61-0

.10

0.31

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.50

-0.2

00.

720.

42-0

.69

1.04

-0.5

5-0

.19

0.17

0.25

0.39

0.42

0.81

0.61

-0.1

00.

31

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…74

608

7555

675

664

7613

876

402

7664

076

822

7699

477

173

7735

377

537

7767

374

618

7549

276

715

7743

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

415.

180.

572.

531.

401.

250.

950.

900.

930.

940.

950.

70-1

.80

1.17

1.62

0.94

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.9

11.

202.

012.

412.

401.

431.

531.

121.

010.

930.

930.

88-1

.80

1.17

1.62

0.94

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…40

469

3938

639

762

3978

639

763

3976

039

742

3976

139

795

3983

039

882

3991

339

893

3985

139

757

3985

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…4.

04-1

0.29

3.88

0.24

-0.2

3-0

.03

-0.1

80.

190.

340.

350.

530.

311.

28-0

.11

-0.2

40.

25%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

97-0

.86

-0.8

1-0

.71

-1.7

40.

95-0

.05

-0.0

60.

080.

180.

350.

381.

28-0

.11

-0.2

40.

25

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

elB

oyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee



Tabl

e 13

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

5317

153

696

5375

053

200

5432

554

231

5467

354

279

5564

755

730

5632

756

080

5203

153

454

5437

755

946

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.75

2.92

3.06

3.22

2.17

1.00

1.72

2.03

2.43

2.76

3.03

3.32

2.36

2.73

1.73

2.89

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

6349

459

493

6080

361

806

6350

462

540

6228

462

946

6473

263

903

6370

164

411

6033

261

399

6281

964

187

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.70

-0.8

32.

683.

540.

025.

122.

441.

841.

932.

182.

272.

333.

331.

772.

312.

18M

ANU

FAC

TUR

ING

……

……

……

……

……

…61

323

6332

363

428

6432

665

013

6532

765

386

6578

366

491

6695

567

201

6775

760

344

6310

065

377

6710

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

615.

095.

526.

046.

023.

163.

092.

272.

272.

492.

783.

001.

174.

573.

612.

64D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

6265

264

564

6466

065

562

6618

966

541

6660

067

048

6769

668

198

6846

069

082

6078

564

360

6659

568

359

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.94

7.06

6.94

6.60

5.64

3.06

3.00

2.27

2.28

2.49

2.79

3.03

1.23

5.88

3.47

2.65

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

5900

961

282

6132

762

232

6302

863

293

6336

763

688

6449

164

896

6511

965

572

5956

460

963

6334

465

020

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.6

91.

843.

125.

146.

813.

283.

332.

342.

322.

532.

772.

961.

082.

353.

912.

65TR

ADE,

TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

, UTI

LITI

ES…

…47

901

4691

147

283

4666

948

065

4810

148

576

4800

249

471

4951

649

908

4932

747

642

4719

148

186

4955

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-0

.83

-3.2

4-0

.56

0.94

0.34

2.54

2.73

2.86

2.93

2.94

2.74

2.76

1.67

-0.9

52.

112.

84W

HO

LESA

LE T

RAD

E……

……

……

……

…77

118

7720

077

626

7788

879

131

7939

379

634

7987

781

082

8131

381

522

8179

274

628

7745

879

509

8142

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

542.

303.

906.

512.

612.

842.

592.

552.

462.

422.

372.

402.

303.

792.

652.

41R

ETAI

L TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

……

…31

946

3093

531

803

3126

932

286

3217

732

491

3197

333

019

3289

333

191

3262

632

244

3148

932

232

3293

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.96

-5.5

3-1

.75

1.07

1.06

4.01

2.16

2.25

2.27

2.22

2.15

2.04

0.46

-2.3

42.

362.

17TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

5792

156

121

5646

755

310

5707

857

350

5765

856

674

5856

958

843

5915

558

218

5804

356

455

5719

058

696

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-1.6

6-5

.60

-1.1

3-2

.47

-1.4

52.

192.

112.

472.

612.

602.

602.

720.

71-2

.74

1.30

2.63

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

7577

376

678

7684

176

664

7795

577

176

7795

977

691

7903

878

383

7930

879

119

7495

276

489

7769

578

962

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.66

4.25

0.44

0.95

2.88

0.65

1.45

1.34

1.39

1.56

1.73

1.84

2.17

2.05

1.58

1.63

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

7817

780

956

8015

780

393

8068

180

501

8064

781

228

8224

582

739

8333

584

418

7560

179

920

8076

483

184

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.47

6.94

7.89

5.63

3.20

-0.5

60.

611.

041.

942.

783.

333.

933.

215.

711.

063.

00PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

…64

958

6763

666

820

6618

868

524

6831

068

325

6777

670

643

7088

871

400

7133

163

241

6640

168

234

7106

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

486.

995.

055.

475.

491.

002.

252.

403.

093.

774.

505.

244.

745.

002.

764.

15ED

UC

ATIO

N &

HEA

LTH

SER

VIC

ES…

……

…53

087

5311

953

786

5309

354

013

5441

554

908

5426

855

271

5583

456

463

5590

852

177

5327

154

401

5586

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

371.

192.

542.

291.

742.

442.

092.

212.

332.

612.

833.

021.

952.

102.

122.

70LE

ISU

RE

& H

OSP

ITAL

ITY…

……

……

……

…28

227

2317

923

481

2434

825

135

2401

724

439

2552

626

343

2512

525

322

2619

926

727

2480

924

779

2574

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

53-1

2.63

-11.

36-7

.63

-10.

953.

614.

084.

844.

804.

613.

612.

640.

65-7

.18

-0.1

23.

91O

THER

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

4906

348

763

4885

249

379

4977

548

887

4945

950

128

5090

650

339

5093

051

676

4615

049

014

4956

250

963

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

5.97

6.77

7.85

4.31

1.45

0.25

1.24

1.52

2.27

2.97

2.97

3.09

2.26

6.21

1.12

2.82

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4851

948

673

5103

848

223

4895

450

434

5180

149

176

5004

451

544

5293

950

232

4826

949

113

5009

151

189

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.99

0.40

1.87

1.77

0.90

3.62

1.49

1.98

2.22

2.20

2.20

2.15

2.38

1.75

1.99

2.19

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…83

002

8349

684

415

8505

886

356

8685

187

471

8787

989

016

8936

589

870

9017

981

981

8399

387

139

8960

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

971.

783.

293.

784.

044.

023.

623.

323.

082.

892.

742.

62-0

.30

2.45

3.75

2.83

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

4414

143

992

4599

643

285

4406

445

541

4692

044

196

4500

446

509

4793

045

129

4391

044

354

4518

046

143

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.41

-0.2

60.

360.

62-0

.17

3.52

2.01

2.10

2.13

2.13

2.15

2.11

2.86

1.01

1.86

2.13

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

ryFo

reca

st D

ata

Annu

al

Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)



Tabl

e 14

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2023

:120

1920

2020

2120

22

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…52

828

5366

553

609

5374

853

980

5423

354

545

5483

455

287

5573

756

199

5665

457

107

5201

253

463

5439

855

969

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

5.97

6.49

-0.4

21.

041.

741.

892.

322.

143.

343.

293.

363.

283.

242.

332.

791.

752.

89%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

972.

933.

023.

232.

181.

061.

752.

022.

422.

773.

033.

323.

292.

332.

791.

752.

89

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…62

351

5952

361

377

6205

262

361

6257

262

872

6319

663

567

6393

664

302

6466

765

146

6035

361

326

6275

064

118

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

17.1

6-1

6.94

13.0

54.

472.

011.

361.

932.

082.

372.

342.

312.

293.

003.

441.

612.

322.

18%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

90-1

.80

1.84

3.54

0.02

5.12

2.44

1.84

1.93

2.18

2.27

2.33

2.48

3.44

1.61

2.32

2.18

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…61

227

6323

563

578

6440

864

878

6522

665

536

6587

166

358

6684

667

351

6785

168

369

6034

763

112

6537

867

102

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

3.05

13.7

82.

185.

332.

952.

161.

912.

062.

992.

983.

053.

003.

091.

174.

583.

592.

64%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

605.

145.

595.

995.

963.

153.

082.

272.

282.

482.

773.

013.

031.

174.

583.

592.

64

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

6260

164

492

6482

165

603

6608

066

450

6676

367

095

6759

268

095

6862

269

134

6968

260

787

6437

966

597

6836

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…6.

7412

.64

2.06

4.91

2.94

2.26

1.90

2.00

3.00

3.01

3.13

3.02

3.21

1.23

5.91

3.44

2.65

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.93

7.16

7.04

6.52

5.56

3.04

3.00

2.27

2.29

2.48

2.78

3.04

3.09

1.23

5.91

3.44

2.65

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…58

842

6117

261

460

6238

262

853

6317

863

497

6384

164

312

6477

965

252

6573

166

201

5956

560

964

6334

265

019

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-3.2

916

.80

1.90

6.14

3.05

2.09

2.03

2.19

2.98

2.94

2.95

2.97

2.89

1.08

2.35

3.90

2.65

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.6

91.

833.

125.

136.

823.

283.

312.

342.

322.

532.

762.

962.

941.

082.

353.

902.

65

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4750

746

789

4710

747

377

4767

047

976

4839

548

730

4906

449

388

4972

250

075

5042

547

585

4719

548

193

4956

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…4.

96-5

.91

2.74

2.32

2.49

2.60

3.54

2.80

2.77

2.67

2.73

2.87

2.82

1.54

-0.8

22.

112.

84%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-0

.64

-2.9

3-0

.60

0.94

0.34

2.54

2.73

2.86

2.93

2.94

2.74

2.76

2.77

1.54

-0.8

22.

112.

84

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…76

758

7706

677

736

7823

178

762

7925

679

748

8022

880

703

8117

281

639

8215

282

677

7467

277

448

7949

981

416

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

19.2

71.

623.

522.

572.

742.

542.

502.

432.

392.

352.

322.

542.

582.

333.

722.

652.

41%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

402.

093.

946.

512.

612.

842.

592.

552.

462.

422.

372.

402.

452.

333.

722.

652.

41

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

3161

730

891

3162

431

783

3195

332

131

3230

932

499

3267

832

845

3300

533

163

3332

332

203

3147

932

223

3292

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…2.

17-8

.87

9.84

2.02

2.15

2.25

2.23

2.37

2.22

2.07

1.95

1.93

1.95

0.31

-2.2

52.

362.

17%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.83

-5.2

9-1

.82

1.07

1.06

4.01

2.16

2.25

2.27

2.22

2.15

2.04

1.98

0.31

-2.2

52.

362.

17

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…57

532

5582

956

269

5640

856

695

5705

157

456

5780

058

176

5853

658

948

5937

559

790

5790

456

510

5725

058

759

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-2.1

0-1

1.33

3.19

1.00

2.05

2.53

2.87

2.42

2.63

2.50

2.84

2.93

2.83

0.51

-2.4

11.

312.

63%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

.14

-4.8

2-1

.15

-2.4

7-1

.45

2.19

2.11

2.47

2.61

2.60

2.60

2.72

2.77

0.51

-2.4

11.

312.

63

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…75

223

7709

876

722

7710

577

389

7760

077

839

7813

978

465

7881

379

185

7957

579

979

7489

376

537

7774

279

010

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-5.9

410

.35

-1.9

42.

011.

481.

091.

241.

551.

681.

791.

901.

982.

051.

972.

201.

571.

63%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

924.

360.

650.

952.

880.

651.

451.

341.

391.

561.

731.

841.

931.

972.

201.

571.

63

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…77

879

8101

880

356

8036

280

374

8056

380

848

8119

781

932

8280

283

542

8438

585

258

7555

079

904

8074

583

165

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

9.79

17.1

3-3

.23

0.03

0.06

0.95

1.42

1.74

3.67

4.32

3.62

4.10

4.20

3.13

5.76

1.05

3.00

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.70

7.02

7.74

5.63

3.20

-0.5

60.

611.

041.

942.

783.

333.

934.

063.

135.

761.

053.

00(C

ON

TIN

UED

ON

NEX

T PA

GE)

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)



Tabl

e 14

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2020

:120

20:2

2020

:320

20:4

2021

:120

21:2

2021

:320

21:4

2022

:120

22:2

2022

:320

22:4

2023

:120

1920

2020

2120

22

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

6413

267

352

6693

067

221

6765

268

023

6843

868

835

6974

470

590

7151

772

445

7332

263

210

6640

968

237

7107

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…2.

5121

.65

-2.4

81.

752.

592.

212.

462.

345.

394.

945.

365.

294.

934.

695.

062.

754.

16%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

756.

845.

155.

475.

491.

002.

252.

403.

093.

774.

505.

245.

134.

695.

062.

754.

16

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

5306

852

976

5345

053

663

5399

354

268

5456

554

850

5525

155

683

5611

056

508

5686

152

210

5328

954

419

5588

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…4.

69-0

.69

3.63

1.61

2.48

2.05

2.21

2.11

2.95

3.17

3.10

2.87

2.52

2.03

2.07

2.12

2.70

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.31

1.22

2.46

2.29

1.74

2.44

2.09

2.21

2.33

2.61

2.83

3.02

2.91

2.03

2.07

2.12

2.70

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…27

400

2375

024

017

2420

724

399

2460

824

997

2537

825

571

2574

325

900

2604

726

211

2672

424

843

2484

525

815

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

19.5

3-4

3.55

4.57

3.20

3.22

3.47

6.47

6.24

3.08

2.71

2.46

2.29

2.54

0.67

-7.0

40.

013.

90%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

13-1

2.24

-11.

25-7

.63

-10.

953.

614.

084.

844.

804.

613.

612.

642.

500.

67-7

.04

0.01

3.90

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

4856

349

207

4910

249

311

4926

849

332

4971

350

059

5038

850

797

5119

051

605

5197

146

153

4904

649

593

5099

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…11

.35

5.41

-0.8

51.

71-0

.34

0.52

3.12

2.82

2.65

3.29

3.13

3.28

2.87

2.27

6.27

1.12

2.83

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

6.04

6.95

7.84

4.31

1.45

0.25

1.24

1.52

2.27

2.97

2.97

3.09

3.14

2.27

6.27

1.12

2.83

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…49

213

4818

549

455

4949

949

654

4992

850

194

5047

750

759

5102

651

296

5156

151

840

4818

749

088

5006

351

160

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

4.80

-8.1

010

.97

0.36

1.26

2.22

2.15

2.27

2.25

2.12

2.13

2.08

2.18

2.31

1.87

1.99

2.19

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.22

0.45

2.05

1.77

0.90

3.62

1.49

1.98

2.22

2.20

2.20

2.15

2.13

2.31

1.87

1.99

2.19

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…82

727

8344

184

415

8528

386

070

8679

387

471

8811

188

721

8930

689

870

9041

890

953

8196

783

966

8711

189

579

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

2.71

3.50

4.75

4.18

3.74

3.41

3.16

2.96

2.80

2.66

2.55

2.46

2.39

-0.3

42.

443.

752.

83%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

771.

853.

363.

784.

044.

023.

623.

323.

082.

892.

742.

622.

52-0

.34

2.44

3.75

2.83

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…44

873

4349

644

361

4456

444

794

4502

845

251

4550

345

750

4598

546

226

4646

346

720

4382

444

323

4514

446

106

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

5.37

-11.

728.

201.

852.

082.

102.

002.

242.

192.

072.

122.

062.

232.

791.

141.

852.

13%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

69-0

.22

0.51

0.62

-0.1

83.

522.

012.

102.

132.

122.

152.

112.

122.

791.

141.

852.

13

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

elB

oyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee



Tabl

e 15

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate,

Not

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

…32

3932

9032

8333

1833

5233

4633

5233

6834

0633

9734

0934

0833

4532

9233

4233

95%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-3.1

5-1

.96

-2.4

4-1

.12

3.48

1.71

2.09

1.50

1.61

1.51

1.70

1.19

2.78

-1.5

81.

521.

58

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

2853

3017

3087

3115

3173

3175

3200

3207

3258

3247

3270

3252

3232

3048

3165

3246

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

1.76

-6.8

4-5

.29

-3.6

911

.21

5.21

3.64

2.97

2.70

2.29

2.20

1.39

2.92

-5.6

83.

852.

54

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…38

627

319

620

317

917

215

216

014

715

013

915

611

324

417

714

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

248.

1813

2.89

85.0

767

.50

-53.

65-3

7.01

-22.

34-2

1.10

-17.

74-1

2.89

-8.8

1-2

.75

-0.9

011

5.31

-27.

65-1

5.60

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

……

58.6

59.4

59.2

59.7

60.2

60.0

60.0

60.1

60.7

60.4

60.5

60.4

61.0

59.5

60.0

60.4

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-3

.96

-2.7

8-3

.25

-1.9

32.

640.

891.

270.

690.

810.

720.

910.

411.

90-2

.40

0.69

0.78

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

…11

.98.

36.

06.

15.

35.

14.

54.

84.

34.

44.

14.

63.

47.

45.

34.

4

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 16

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate,

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…32

2732

9132

9033

2533

3633

4833

5633

7933

8933

9934

1234

1933

4332

9433

4133

95%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

-15.

898.

15-0

.08

4.38

1.26

1.51

0.92

2.73

1.21

1.23

1.53

0.84

2.74

-1.4

71.

431.

60%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-3.2

5-1

.91

-2.2

9-1

.31

3.38

1.76

2.01

1.60

1.59

1.52

1.67

1.20

2.74

-1.4

71.

431.

60

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…28

3730

2230

8331

3631

5531

7931

9632

2932

4032

5232

6632

7432

3030

5031

6732

47%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

-42.

3828

.65

8.43

7.02

2.47

3.03

2.12

4.29

1.37

1.41

1.76

1.01

2.88

-5.5

93.

832.

54%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-11.

88-6

.80

-5.2

9-3

.69

11.2

15.

213.

642.

972.

702.

292.

201.

392.

88-5

.59

3.83

2.54

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

…39

026

920

718

918

116

916

014

914

914

814

614

511

324

517

514

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

1402

4.51

-77.

28-6

5.22

-29.

49-1

7.21

-22.

47-1

9.62

-24.

89-2

.16

-2.5

4-3

.46

-2.8

4-1

.08

115.

87-2

8.47

-15.

43%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

238.

1213

8.68

85.0

767

.50

-53.

65-3

7.01

-22.

34-2

1.10

-17.

74-1

2.89

-8.8

1-2

.75

-1.0

811

5.87

-28.

47-1

5.43

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

58.4

59.4

59.3

59.8

59.9

60.0

60.0

60.3

60.4

60.4

60.6

60.6

61.0

59.6

59.9

60.4

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

…-1

6.59

7.26

-0.9

03.

540.

450.

700.

131.

920.

430.

450.

750.

081.

85-2

.29

0.61

0.80

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-4

.06

-2.7

3-3

.10

-2.1

22.

540.

931.

190.

800.

790.

730.

890.

431.

85-2

.29

0.61

0.80

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

…12

.18.

26.

35.

75.

45.

14.

84.

44.

44.

34.

34.

23.

47.

55.

24.

4

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 17

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3145

333

036

3604

830

528

3316

933

050

3613

331

034

3394

533

993

3721

831

926

1291

0012

9672

1328

8013

6191

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.50

2.72

1.63

4.78

5.46

0.04

0.24

1.66

2.34

2.85

3.00

2.87

4.42

0.44

2.47

2.49

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…32

4933

8831

3430

5332

1332

5830

5430

4232

0932

6330

5930

5012

676

1265

412

579

1257

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

0.95

1.89

0.13

5.88

-1.1

0-3

.82

-2.5

4-0

.39

-0.1

30.

150.

160.

272.

86-0

.17

-0.6

0-0

.05

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1366

1481

1934

1295

1463

1427

1839

1259

1440

1425

1860

1273

5895

6100

6023

5985

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.30

8.48

1.54

-1.7

87.

07-3

.71

-4.9

2-2

.75

-1.5

3-0

.08

1.13

1.07

7.07

3.48

-1.2

6-0

.64

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…60

9960

8664

4752

6860

3056

9159

0149

6158

1556

2959

9850

7721

890

2350

922

891

2240

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

9.05

10.3

57.

388.

01-1

.13

-6.4

9-8

.47

-5.8

3-3

.57

-1.0

91.

642.

354.

537.

40-2

.63

-2.1

3

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

2691

3106

3112

2952

3207

3181

3171

3036

3297

3285

3266

3114

1375

511

769

1251

212

884

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

4.07

-11.

23-1

0.13

3.21

19.2

02.

411.

912.

842.

813.

262.

992.

588.

71-1

4.44

6.31

2.98

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

3319

3241

3397

2959

3067

3111

3368

3017

3131

3179

3441

3085

1202

813

033

1250

412

768

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…12

.47

8.55

3.57

-3.8

2-7

.59

-4.0

1-0

.86

1.96

2.09

2.20

2.19

2.26

1.82

8.35

-4.0

62.

11

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…29

829

335

628

328

325

129

223

226

025

030

224

096

111

8611

0910

45%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

28.2

524

.17

28.1

418

.30

-5.2

3-1

4.12

-18.

14-1

7.90

-7.8

9-0

.32

3.51

3.55

6.73

23.4

0-6

.55

-5.7

3

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…41

071

077

766

490

796

610

0382

410

8610

9510

6184

342

8926

2735

4040

65%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-64.

89-3

8.67

-27.

32-9

.06

121.

0735

.99

29.1

024

.09

19.7

613

.37

5.73

2.36

20.6

6-3

8.74

34.7

214

.85

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…10

172

1059

112

332

1021

110

906

1099

812

813

1063

411

408

1152

313

415

1114

339

746

4248

044

928

4698

0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.98

9.74

8.12

8.81

7.22

3.84

3.90

4.14

4.60

4.78

4.70

4.79

4.15

6.88

5.76

4.57

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2082

2377

2824

2223

2431

2406

2861

2258

2478

2458

2924

2314

9835

9308

9921

1011

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-14.

21-0

.53

-0.1

59.

8216

.73

1.21

1.30

1.57

1.93

2.17

2.21

2.46

2.13

-5.3

66.

581.

99

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…17

6617

6217

3416

2116

6117

6118

3117

7318

2018

8518

9217

8780

2570

0568

7573

70%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-9.1

4-1

3.42

-17.

72-6

.97

-5.9

1-0

.06

5.58

9.36

9.57

7.01

3.34

0.79

-1.5

5-1

2.71

-1.8

67.

20

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4567

4797

5235

4397

4778

4760

5205

4435

4851

4858

5319

4528

1890

618

830

1914

019

463

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-3

.31

1.86

0.77

3.93

4.60

-0.7

7-0

.58

0.86

1.54

2.05

2.20

2.09

3.52

-0.4

01.

641.

69

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 18

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3144

333

207

3330

333

127

3313

533

213

3337

933

671

3392

134

157

3437

034

641

1289

5712

9563

1328

5413

6119

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.10

24.4

01.

17-2

.10

0.10

0.94

2.02

3.54

3.00

2.82

2.51

3.19

4.39

0.47

2.54

2.46

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.21

2.82

1.36

4.80

5.38

0.02

0.23

1.64

2.37

2.84

2.97

2.88

4.39

0.47

2.54

2.46

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…31

8232

6432

2231

5331

4731

3931

4031

4131

4231

4431

4531

5012

671

1264

612

579

1257

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

30.2

810

.73

-5.0

3-8

.26

-0.8

4-0

.96

0.15

0.11

0.17

0.18

0.18

0.56

2.84

-0.2

0-0

.53

-0.0

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

0.91

1.88

0.13

5.88

-1.1

0-3

.82

-2.5

4-0

.39

-0.1

30.

150.

160.

272.

84-0

.20

-0.5

3-0

.05

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1417

1556

1562

1532

1517

1499

1485

1490

1494

1497

1502

1506

5869

6095

6033

5983

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

1.93

45.5

61.

53-7

.50

-3.8

7-4

.77

-3.4

81.

251.

040.

931.

301.

027.

003.

85-1

.02

-0.8

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-2.0

58.

491.

54-1

.78

7.07

-3.7

1-4

.92

-2.7

5-1

.53

-0.0

81.

131.

077.

003.

85-1

.02

-0.8

2

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…58

5760

6960

6259

0157

9056

7555

4955

5755

8456

1356

4056

8721

861

2345

122

915

2239

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

32.0

615

.31

-0.4

6-1

0.22

-7.2

8-7

.71

-8.6

30.

581.

952.

141.

913.

394.

537.

27-2

.28

-2.2

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

9.06

10.2

57.

388.

01-1

.13

-6.4

9-8

.47

-5.8

3-3

.57

-1.0

91.

642.

354.

537.

27-2

.28

-2.2

8

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

2617

3057

3095

3103

3119

3131

3154

3192

3207

3233

3248

3274

1374

411

775

1250

712

879

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-4

2.64

86.2

25.

041.

102.

091.

472.

974.

881.

953.

261.

913.

238.

72-1

4.33

6.21

2.98

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

3.84

-11.

52-1

0.13

3.21

19.2

02.

411.

912.

842.

813.

262.

992.

588.

72-1

4.33

6.21

2.98

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

3374

3262

3176

3106

3118

3131

3149

3166

3183

3200

3218

3238

1202

313

041

1250

412

767

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…19

.25

-12.

70-1

0.08

-8.6

01.

651.

622.

352.

222.

152.

062.

302.

511.

748.

47-4

.12

2.11

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…12

.39

8.68

3.57

-3.8

2-7

.59

-4.0

1-0

.86

1.96

2.09

2.20

2.19

2.26

1.74

8.47

-4.1

22.

11

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…29

830

631

231

428

226

325

625

826

026

226

526

796

111

8111

1410

44%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

58.8

812

.19

7.86

1.88

-34.

56-2

4.34

-10.

953.

073.

673.

753.

563.

236.

9222

.90

-5.6

6-6

.31

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…28

.18

24.0

628

.14

18.3

0-5

.23

-14.

12-1

8.14

-17.

90-7

.89

-0.3

23.

513.

556.

9222

.90

-5.6

6-6

.31

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…38

366

175

081

284

689

896

910

0810

1310

1910

2410

3142

9026

8735

2540

64%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-96.

6378

9.32

66.5

137

.12

17.6

327

.34

35.2

617

.02

2.05

2.27

2.32

2.77

21.1

1-3

7.36

31.2

115

.27

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-6

4.57

-38.

90-2

7.32

-9.0

612

1.07

35.9

929

.10

24.0

919

.76

13.3

75.

732.

3621

.11

-37.

3631

.21

15.2

7

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…10

403

1085

210

972

1106

911

154

1126

811

400

1152

711

667

1180

611

935

1208

039

690

4239

944

891

4693

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

9.38

18.3

94.

523.

583.

114.

144.

774.

554.

944.

844.

454.

934.

076.

835.

884.

56%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.11

9.62

8.12

8.81

7.22

3.84

3.90

4.14

4.60

4.78

4.70

4.79

4.07

6.83

5.88

4.56

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2119

2453

2462

2467

2473

2482

2494

2505

2521

2536

2549

2567

9828

9280

9916

1011

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-20.

8179

.59

1.46

0.80

1.11

1.46

1.83

1.89

2.54

2.43

1.97

2.92

2.15

-5.5

76.

861.

97%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-14.

16-0

.63

-0.1

59.

8216

.73

1.21

1.30

1.57

1.93

2.17

2.21

2.46

2.15

-5.5

76.

861.

97

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…17

9417

2716

9016

7116

8817

2617

8418

2718

5018

4718

4318

4180

2070

0768

6973

67%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-0.4

3-1

4.05

-8.4

4-4

.42

4.21

9.40

14.0

510

.00

5.02

-0.4

9-0

.81

-0.4

7-1

.58

-12.

63-1

.97

7.26

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-9

.01

-13.

65-1

7.72

-6.9

7-5

.91

-0.0

65.

589.

369.

577.

013.

340.

79-1

.58

-12.

63-1

.97

7.26

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4566

4822

4836

4772

4773

4784

4808

4812

4848

4881

4912

4913

1888

518

814

1913

619

453

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.10

24.4

01.

17-5

.24

0.10

0.94

2.02

0.33

3.00

2.82

2.51

0.10

3.50

-0.3

71.

711.

65%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-3.0

31.

960.

513.

954.

53-0

.79

-0.5

80.

851.

572.

042.

162.

103.

50-0

.37

1.71

1.65

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 19

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3473

536

857

4037

834

391

3756

337

632

4135

135

678

3919

139

400

4332

537

304

1418

6414

4275

1509

3615

7594

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

.87

4.08

2.99

6.45

8.14

2.10

2.41

3.74

4.33

4.70

4.77

4.56

5.98

1.70

4.62

4.41

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…35

8837

7935

1034

4036

3937

1034

9634

9737

0537

8235

6135

6413

927

1407

614

284

1454

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.60

3.24

1.48

7.57

1.42

-1.8

4-0

.43

1.66

1.81

1.95

1.88

1.91

4.41

1.07

1.48

1.83

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1509

1653

2167

1458

1656

1624

2105

1447

1663

1652

2165

1487

6480

6790

6844

6927

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

.67

9.91

2.90

-0.2

29.

79-1

.73

-2.8

6-0

.75

0.39

1.71

2.87

2.73

8.67

4.77

0.80

1.22

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…67

3667

9072

2159

3468

2964

8067

5357

0367

1465

2469

8259

3224

056

2615

525

997

2592

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

9.75

11.8

18.

829.

731.

39-4

.56

-6.4

8-3

.90

-1.6

90.

683.

394.

026.

098.

73-0

.60

-0.2

8

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

2971

3466

3486

3325

3632

3622

3629

3490

3807

3808

3802

3639

1511

113

094

1420

914

906

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

3.57

-10.

05-8

.93

4.85

22.2

44.

524.

124.

954.

815.

114.

764.

2610

.32

-13.

358.

514.

91

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

3665

3616

3805

3333

3474

3542

3854

3468

3615

3685

4006

3604

1321

714

497

1420

314

774

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…13

.20

9.99

4.95

-2.2

9-5

.24

-2.0

41.

294.

054.

074.

033.

943.

933.

359.

69-2

.03

4.02

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…33

032

639

931

932

028

633

426

730

129

035

128

110

5713

2012

5912

09%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

29.0

825

.81

29.8

620

.19

-2.8

1-1

2.35

-16.

36-1

6.21

-6.1

01.

475.

295.

258.

3124

.95

-4.6

5-3

.92

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…45

379

287

074

810

2710

9911

4894

712

5412

6912

3598

547

1329

2540

2247

05%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-64.

66-3

7.85

-26.

34-7

.61

126.

7038

.79

31.9

026

.63

22.0

915

.41

7.55

4.03

22.4

2-3

7.93

37.5

216

.96

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…11

233

1181

613

814

1150

312

351

1252

214

663

1222

513

171

1335

615

616

1302

143

680

4726

951

040

5436

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.65

11.1

99.

5710

.55

9.95

5.97

6.15

6.28

6.64

6.66

6.50

6.51

5.71

8.22

7.98

6.52

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2300

2652

3163

2505

2753

2739

3274

2596

2860

2849

3404

2704

1080

810

360

1127

011

709

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

3.65

0.79

1.19

11.5

719

.71

3.29

3.49

3.65

3.91

4.00

3.96

4.14

3.65

-4.1

58.

793.

89

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…19

5019

6619

4318

2618

8120

0520

9620

3821

0121

8422

0320

8888

1677

9178

0985

27%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-8.5

6-1

2.27

-16.

61-5

.49

-3.5

12.

007.

8711

.60

11.7

08.

935.

122.

44-0

.07

-11.

630.

239.

20

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

5044

5352

5863

4954

5410

5420

5956

5099

5601

5631

6192

5291

2077

520

951

2174

022

522

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.69

3.21

2.13

5.59

7.27

1.27

1.58

2.93

3.52

3.88

3.95

3.77

5.07

0.85

3.77

3.59

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 20

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2020

:220

20:3

2020

:420

21:1

2021

:220

21:3

2021

:420

22:1

2022

:220

22:3

2022

:420

23:1

2019

2020

2021

2022

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3472

437

047

3730

437

319

3752

537

817

3819

938

709

3916

339

591

4001

040

477

1416

7014

4124

1508

6015

7472

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.67

29.5

72.

800.

162.

233.

154.

115.

454.

764.

444.

304.

765.

951.

734.

674.

38%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-1.5

74.

182.

726.

478.

072.

082.

403.

734.

364.

694.

744.

575.

951.

734.

674.

38

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…35

1436

4136

0935

5235

6435

7435

9436

1136

2836

4436

6136

8013

920

1406

614

284

1454

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

28.1

915

.33

-3.5

0-6

.14

1.27

1.20

2.20

1.96

1.88

1.77

1.93

2.08

4.38

1.05

1.54

1.83

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

563.

231.

487.

571.

42-1

.84

-0.4

31.

661.

811.

951.

881.

914.

381.

051.

541.

83

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1565

1736

1750

1726

1718

1706

1700

1713

1725

1736

1749

1760

6448

6781

6850

6922

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

3.02

51.6

13.

16-5

.36

-1.8

3-2

.69

-1.5

13.

122.

772.

533.

072.

558.

595.

161.

031.

05%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-1.4

29.

932.

90-0

.22

9.79

-1.7

3-2

.86

-0.7

50.

391.

712.

872.

738.

595.

161.

031.

05

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…64

6867

7167

9066

4865

5764

6263

5063

8864

4665

0665

6566

4524

017

2608

726

017

2590

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

29.9

420

.11

1.14

-8.1

4-5

.31

-5.6

9-6

.76

2.43

3.69

3.76

3.69

4.96

6.09

8.62

-0.2

7-0

.43

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…9.

7711

.71

8.82

9.73

1.39

-4.5

6-6

.48

-3.9

0-1

.69

0.68

3.39

4.02

6.09

8.62

-0.2

7-0

.43

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

2890

3410

3466

3496

3533

3565

3609

3669

3702

3747

3781

3826

1509

913

101

1420

214

900

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-4

3.56

93.9

66.

733.

444.

263.

695.

086.

813.

694.

893.

694.

7910

.33

-13.

238.

414.

91%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-23.

35-1

0.35

-8.9

34.

8522

.24

4.52

4.12

4.95

4.81

5.11

4.76

4.26

10.3

3-1

3.23

8.41

4.91

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

3726

3639

3558

3499

3531

3565

3604

3640

3675

3709

3746

3783

1320

814

503

1419

814

770

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…17

.34

-9.0

7-8

.63

-6.4

93.

813.

844.

444.

113.

903.

684.

094.

063.

269.

81-2

.10

4.02

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…13

.12

10.1

24.

95-2

.29

-5.2

4-2

.04

1.29

4.05

4.07

4.03

3.94

3.93

3.26

9.81

-2.1

04.

02

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…32

934

235

035

331

930

029

229

630

030

430

831

210

5613

1412

6512

08%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

56.3

316

.86

9.60

4.23

-33.

17-2

2.69

-9.1

34.

975.

445.

395.

374.

798.

5024

.45

-3.7

5-4

.50

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…29

.01

25.7

029

.86

20.1

9-2

.81

-12.

35-1

6.36

-16.

21-6

.10

1.47

5.29

5.25

8.50

24.4

5-3

.75

-4.5

0

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…42

273

784

191

595

810

2311

0911

5911

6911

8111

9312

0547

1229

9040

0447

01%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-96.

6982

6.28

69.1

940

.29

20.1

330

.12

38.0

319

.18

3.80

3.89

4.11

4.33

22.8

8-3

6.53

33.9

117

.40

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-6

4.34

-38.

09-2

6.34

-7.6

112

6.70

38.7

931

.90

26.6

322

.09

15.4

17.

554.

0322

.88

-36.

5333

.91

17.4

0

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…11

489

1210

712

290

1247

012

632

1283

013

046

1325

213

470

1368

413

894

1411

543

604

4716

550

977

5430

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

7.63

23.3

26.

205.

975.

316.

426.

916.

486.

746.

506.

276.

525.

638.

178.

086.

52%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.78

11.0

79.

5710

.55

9.95

5.97

6.15

6.28

6.64

6.66

6.50

6.51

5.63

8.17

8.08

6.52

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2340

2737

2757

2779

2801

2827

2854

2880

2911

2940

2967

3000

1079

610

325

1126

011

698

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-2

2.08

87.0

53.

093.

133.

263.

683.

913.

774.

294.

053.

754.

483.

67-4

.37

9.06

3.89

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-1

3.61

0.68

1.19

11.5

719

.71

3.29

3.49

3.65

3.91

4.00

3.96

4.14

3.67

-4.3

79.

063.

89

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…19

8119

2718

9318

8219

1219

6620

4221

0021

3521

4121

4621

5288

1077

9278

0185

23%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

-2.0

2-1

0.48

-6.9

7-2

.21

6.43

11.7

916

.38

12.0

36.

821.

090.

921.

04-0

.10

-11.

560.

119.

26%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-8.4

2-1

2.51

-16.

61-5

.49

-3.5

12.

007.

8711

.60

11.7

08.

935.

122.

44-0

.10

-11.

560.

119.

26

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

5042

5380

5417

5375

5405

5447

5502

5532

5597

5658

5718

5741

2074

620

929

2172

922

504

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.67

29.5

72.

80-3

.05

2.23

3.15

4.11

2.18

4.76

4.44

4.30

1.62

5.04

0.88

3.82

3.57

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.40

3.31

1.86

5.61

7.19

1.25

1.57

2.91

3.55

3.87

3.92

3.77

5.04

0.88

3.82

3.57

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

tory

Fore

cast

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U.

S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TN G

DP

(Mil2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…31

7221

.232

6558

.633

8288

3466

36.7

3543

90.1

3621

86.7

3698

51.9

3773

90.5

3846

70.7

3918

84.6

4000

15Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-3

.52

2.94

3.59

2.47

2.24

2.20

2.12

2.04

1.93

1.88

2.07

US

GD

P (B

il201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1841

3.2

1898

2.4

1946

4.1

1994

5.3

2052

7.9

2114

2.2

2171

6.9

2228

9.5

2285

2.7

2337

3.2

2390

0.8

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-3.5

53.

092.

542.

472.

922.

992.

722.

642.

532.

282.

26U

S G

DP

(Bil$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

..20

924.

321

986.

122

998.

724

055.

825

274.

926

579.

627

895.

329

288.

330

742.

832

194.

533

712.

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-2

.37

5.07

4.61

4.60

5.07

5.16

4.95

4.99

4.97

4.72

4.71

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL20

12$)

SAA

R…

…...

......

......

....

3114

3830

8333

3165

2232

5860

3366

0134

5732

3545

0536

3472

3716

6237

9887

3883

48Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…2.

90-1

.00

2.66

2.95

3.30

2.71

2.54

2.53

2.25

2.21

2.23

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

2012

$) S

AAR

……

……

......

......

.17

660

1709

517

320

1773

818

286

1886

819

426

1998

920

555

2109

221

640

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4.58

-3.2

01.

322.

413.

093.

182.

962.

902.

832.

622.

60TN

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(MIL

$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

......

3463

7635

0125

3661

7538

2997

4023

8942

1286

4411

0246

2213

4830

5950

4409

5265

40Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…4.

181.

084.

584.

595.

064.

704.

704.

794.

514.

424.

39U

S PE

RSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (B

IL$)

SAA

R…

……

……

……

…...

...19

631

1936

420

052

2094

122

000

2314

424

318

2556

526

876

2819

729

576

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

5.82

-1.3

63.

554.

435.

065.

205.

075.

135.

134.

914.

89TN

NO

NFA

RM

JO

BS (T

HO

US)

……

……

……

……

……

……

…30

07.0

3073

.931

33.8

3175

.632

18.5

3262

.333

04.1

3339

.233

71.4

3403

.534

36.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-3.7

12.

231.

951.

331.

351.

361.

281.

060.

960.

950.

98U

S N

ON

FAR

M J

OBS

(MIL

)……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…14

2.4

147.

515

1.3

153.

415

5.1

156.

615

7.5

158.

515

9.4

160.

016

0.7

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-5.6

53.

562.

581.

361.

150.

940.

610.

600.

570.

370.

44TN

MFG

JO

BS (T

HO

US)

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

327.

833

0.5

334.

633

6.9

338.

833

9.5

340.

434

1.0

341.

734

2.2

342.

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-7

.67

0.82

1.24

0.69

0.56

0.19

0.27

0.19

0.20

0.15

0.18

US

MFG

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

.212

.412

.512

.612

.612

.512

.412

.312

.212

.112

.0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-4

.62

0.96

0.97

1.20

-0.3

8-0

.75

-0.5

9-0

.70

-0.8

3-1

.01

-1.0

6TN

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (%

)……

……

……

……

……

…...

..7.

55.

24.

44.

24.

04.

03.

93.

93.

93.

93.

9U

S U

NEM

PLO

YMEN

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

……

……

….

8.1

5.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.9

3.9

CH

AIN

ED P

RIC

E IN

DEX

, GD

P (2

012=

100.

0)…

……

……

......

.11

3.6

115.

811

8.2

120.

612

3.1

125.

712

8.4

131.

413

4.5

137.

714

1.0

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1.17

1.93

2.01

2.07

2.09

2.11

2.17

2.30

2.38

2.39

2.40

US

PER

S C

ON

SUM

P D

EFL

(201

2=10

0.0)

……

……

…...

......

...11

1.2

113.

311

5.8

118.

112

0.3

122.

712

5.2

127.

913

0.7

133.

713

6.7

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1.20

1.90

2.20

1.97

1.91

1.96

2.05

2.17

2.24

2.24

2.23

CO

NSU

MER

PR

ICE

IND

EX, A

LL-U

RBA

N (8

2-84

=1.0

00)…

…2.

589

2.64

82.

718

2.77

92.

836

2.89

82.

965

3.03

73.

112

3.18

83.

264

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1.26

2.30

2.64

2.23

2.08

2.17

2.32

2.43

2.47

2.43

2.40

BAN

K PR

IME

INTE

RES

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

……

……

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.9

4.4

4.9

FED

ERAL

FU

ND

S R

ATE

(% p

er a

nnum

)……

……

……

……

…0.

378

0.10

00.

100

0.10

50.

122

0.12

50.

140

0.39

10.

781

1.28

31.

784

30-Y

EAR

FIX

ED M

OR

TGAG

E R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

……

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.6

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

2012

$)…

……

……

……

……

……

…12

9563

1328

5413

6119

1400

2114

4088

1476

4015

1220

1552

3715

8970

1629

7316

7419

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

0.47

2.54

2.46

2.87

2.90

2.47

2.42

2.66

2.40

2.52

2.73

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

$)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1441

2415

0860

1574

7216

4572

1722

4817

9903

1881

6019

7409

2066

1821

6395

2269

97Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…1.

734.

674.

384.

514.

664.

444.

594.

924.

664.

734.

90TN

AVG

AN

NU

AL W

AGE,

NO

NFA

RM

(201

2$)…

……

……

.....

4806

847

906

4838

049

185

5004

250

736

5131

251

917

5256

353

199

5385

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…1.

52-0

.34

0.99

1.66

1.74

1.39

1.13

1.18

1.24

1.21

1.23

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M ($

)……

……

……

......

...53

463

5439

855

969

5780

859

822

6182

263

845

6602

068

316

7063

673

019

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

2.79

1.75

2.89

3.29

3.48

3.34

3.27

3.41

3.48

3.40

3.37

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Dece

mbe

r 202

0Fo

reca

st D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el




Tabl

e 2:

Sel

ecte

d Pe

r Cap

ita U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TN G

DP

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

4606

547

037

4834

449

162

4989

350

629

5134

452

039

5269

653

341

5410

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…-4

.33

2.11

2.78

1.69

1.49

1.47

1.41

1.35

1.26

1.22

1.44

US

GD

P (2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

.……

…55

729

5706

258

105

5913

560

454

6185

363

124

6437

865

596

6668

367

785

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-4.0

42.

391.

831.

772.

232.

312.

051.

991.

891.

661.

65

US

GD

P ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

…63

329

6609

168

656

7132

274

434

7776

181

082

8459

288

243

9185

095

611

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-2.8

74.

363.

883.

884.

364.

474.

274.

334.

324.

094.

09

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (2

012$

) SAA

R…

….

4522

544

411

4523

446

216

4738

948

329

4921

450

120

5091

451

708

5252

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..2.

04-1

.80

1.85

2.17

2.54

1.98

1.83

1.84

1.58

1.56

1.59

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

5345

051

387

5170

552

590

5385

255

199

5646

557

733

5900

060

176

6137

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..4.

04-3

.86

0.62

1.71

2.40

2.50

2.29

2.25

2.19

1.99

1.99

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

5029

950

431

5233

054

319

5665

158

890

6123

563

736

6617

568

657

7122

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..3.

310.

263.

763.

804.

293.

953.

984.

083.

833.

753.

73

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($) S

AAR

……

……

.59

413

5821

159

861

6208

864

790

6771

070

684

7383

877

145

8044

683

879

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

5.28

-2.0

22.

833.

724.

354.

514.

394.

464.

484.

284.

27

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(201

2$)…

……

……

……

1881

419

136

1945

319

859

2028

620

638

2099

321

406

2177

722

183

2264

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..-0

.37

1.71

1.65

2.09

2.15

1.74

1.72

1.97

1.73

1.86

2.08

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

($)…

……

……

……

……

2092

921

729

2250

423

341

2425

025

148

2612

127

221

2830

529

454

3070

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..0.

883.

823.

573.

723.

903.

703.

874.

213.

984.

064.

24

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators



Tabl

e 3:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

...…

……

……

3114

3830

8333

3165

2232

5860

3366

0134

5732

3545

0536

3472

3716

6237

9887

3883

48Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…2.

90-1

.00

2.66

2.95

3.30

2.71

2.54

2.53

2.25

2.21

2.23

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

……

…14

5363

1481

2015

2475

1570

4816

1909

1663

5217

0363

1741

7517

8010

1818

4918

5858

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-2.2

61.

902.

943.

003.

102.

742.

412.

242.

202.

162.

20

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

…32

223

3366

234

622

3569

636

887

3788

938

816

3972

340

614

4161

342

663

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-0.8

94.

472.

853.

103.

342.

722.

452.

342.

242.

462.

52

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

…37

761

4099

942

964

4418

045

316

4650

247

750

4906

350

369

5171

752

874

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-9.6

38.

574.

792.

832.

572.

622.

682.

752.

662.

682.

24

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

……

…43

799

4275

442

930

4358

744

353

4495

845

586

4633

146

917

4760

648

285

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-2.4

7-2

.38

0.41

1.53

1.76

1.36

1.40

1.63

1.26

1.47

1.43

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

……

7701

766

885

6786

770

020

7310

975

081

7711

679

462

8129

282

813

8463

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…27

.70

-13.

161.

473.

174.

412.

702.

713.

042.

301.

872.

20

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

……

2287

922

321

2259

122

940

2326

223

360

2346

023

641

2392

324

116

2439

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…-3

.17

-2.4

41.

211.

541.

400.

420.

430.

771.

200.

801.

16

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

……

-184

6-1

767

-174

5-1

730

-171

2-1

691

-166

6-1

642

-161

7-1

594

-157

0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…-5

.68

-4.3

2-1

.22

-0.8

6-1

.02

-1.2

4-1

.46

-1.4

6-1

.54

-1.3

9-1

.51

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

……

…45

225

4441

145

234

4621

647

389

4832

949

214

5012

050

914

5170

852

529

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

2.04

-1.8

01.

852.

172.

541.

981.

831.

841.

581.

561.

59

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 4:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

...…

……

……

3463

7635

0125

3661

7538

2997

4023

8942

1286

4411

0246

2213

4830

5950

4409

5265

40Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…4.

181.

084.

584.

595.

064.

704.

704.

794.

514.

424.

39

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

……

…16

1685

1681

9917

6394

1845

8519

3553

2027

0521

1978

2214

9123

1364

2414

5625

1995

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-1.0

34.

034.

874.

644.

864.

734.

574.

494.

464.

364.

36

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

…35

843

3822

540

053

4195

544

097

4616

948

298

5051

552

788

5525

357

844

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

0.36

6.64

4.78

4.75

5.11

4.70

4.61

4.59

4.50

4.67

4.69

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

…42

004

4655

949

704

5192

654

173

5666

459

414

6239

265

467

6867

071

689

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-8.5

010

.84

6.76

4.47

4.33

4.60

4.85

5.01

4.93

4.89

4.40

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

……

…48

711

4854

749

664

5122

853

021

5478

156

721

5891

660

978

6321

065

466

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-1.2

6-0

.34

2.30

3.15

3.50

3.32

3.54

3.87

3.50

3.66

3.57

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

……

8563

175

947

7851

482

297

8739

991

489

9595

410

1049

1056

5710

9957

1147

51Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…29

.24

-11.

313.

384.

826.

204.

684.

885.

314.

564.

074.

36

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

……

2544

525

346

2613

526

962

2780

728

464

2918

930

062

3109

332

020

3307

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…-1

.97

-0.3

93.

113.

163.

142.

362.

552.

993.

432.

983.

30

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

……

-205

3-2

006

-201

9-2

033

-204

7-2

061

-207

3-2

088

-210

1-2

117

-212

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

…-4

.51

-2.3

10.

640.

720.

670.

670.

620.

710.

630.

740.

57

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

……

…50

299

5043

152

330

5431

956

651

5889

061

235

6373

666

175

6865

771

221

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

3.31

0.26

3.76

3.80

4.29

3.95

3.98

4.08

3.83

3.75

3.73

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 5:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

(tho

usan

ds o

f job

s)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…30

07.0

3073

.931

33.8

3175

.632

18.5

3262

.333

04.1

3339

.233

71.4

3403

.534

36.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.71

2.23

1.95

1.33

1.35

1.36

1.28

1.06

0.96

0.95

0.98

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…13

1.7

133.

913

6.2

138.

314

0.3

142.

714

5.1

147.

314

9.2

151.

015

3.0

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-1

.80

1.63

1.76

1.54

1.43

1.66

1.72

1.49

1.31

1.21

1.29

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…32

7.8

330.

533

4.6

336.

933

8.8

339.

534

0.4

341.

034

1.7

342.

234

2.8

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-7

.67

0.82

1.24

0.69

0.56

0.19

0.27

0.19

0.20

0.15

0.18

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

206.

420

8.2

210.

321

1.7

213.

221

3.8

214.

621

5.2

215.

821

6.3

216.

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-9.2

50.

881.

010.

660.

700.

280.

400.

280.

290.

240.

26

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…12

1.4

122.

312

4.3

125.

212

5.6

125.

712

5.8

125.

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ADE…

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AIL

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TRAN

SPO

RTA

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N &

UTI

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INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

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FED

ERAL

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14

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

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0.99

0.90

0.92

0.77

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0.69

0.62

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0




Tabl

e 6:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

Dec

embe

r 202

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

206.

420

8.2

210.

321

1.7

213.

221

3.8

214.

621

5.2

215.

821

6.3

216.

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

…-9

.25

0.88

1.01

0.66

0.70

0.28

0.40

0.28

0.29

0.24

0.26

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

…12

.913

.112

.612

.612

.712

.712

.812

.912

.913

.113

.1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

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……

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081.

12-3

.36

-0.6

10.

880.

430.

870.

530.

260.

860.

62

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

S……

……

……

14.3

14.6

14.8

14.9

15.1

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

15.6

Perc

enta

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52.

491.

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810.

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780.

330.

84

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

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rcen

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FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

S……

……

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HIN

ERY…

……

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Perc

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CO

MPU

TER

S &

ELEC

TRO

NIC

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……

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.9

Perc

enta

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……

0.54

3.07

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ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

……

17.6

17.3

17.0

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16.4

16.3

16.2

16.2

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16.0

Perc

enta

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TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IPM

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……

53.4

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58.3

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62.6

63.1

63.4

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64.1

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enta

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952.

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832.

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540.

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570.

350.

550.

25

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

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99.

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79.

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MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

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0.15

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 7:

Ten

ness

ee N

ondu

rabl

e G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

Dec

embe

r 202

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

…12

1.4

122.

312

4.3

125.

212

5.6

125.

712

5.7

125.

812

5.9

125.

812

5.9

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

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……

……

……

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70.

701.

650.

740.

310.

040.

060.

030.

06-0

.02

0.03

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

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.034

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.936

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0.31

0.27

0.38

0.33

0.41

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

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7.4

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.9

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.3

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0.94

0.98

0.85

0.83

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R…

……

……

……

……

……

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12.6

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12.3

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11.8

Perc

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3-0

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8

PRIN

TIN

G &

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ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

7.4

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

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6.0

5.9

Perc

enta

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1

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

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……

25.9

26.0

26.3

26.5

26.5

26.4

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25.9

25.7

25.5

Perc

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2-0

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PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

22.0

22.4

23.1

23.4

23.6

23.7

23.9

24.0

24.2

24.4

24.5

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

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……

……

……

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561.

873.

311.

190.

840.

500.

860.

550.

730.

590.

55

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

12.1

12.8

13.1

13.3

13.4

13.4

13.5

13.6

13.6

13.7

13.7

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-0.3

45.

672.

321.

650.

810.

380.

460.

340.

420.

280.

45

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee A

vera

ge A

nnua

l Wag

e an

d Sa

lary

Rat

e by

Sec

tor (

2012

dol

lars

)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…48

068

4790

648

380

4918

550

042

5073

651

312

5191

752

563

5319

953

856

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…1.

52-0

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0.99

1.66

1.74

1.39

1.13

1.18

1.24

1.21

1.23

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…55

136

5526

255

425

5599

256

682

5717

157

399

5766

358

025

5833

858

730

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

350.

230.

291.

021.

230.

860.

400.

460.

630.

540.

67M

ANU

FAC

TUR

ING

……

……

……

……

……

……

5674

257

576

5800

458

821

5962

760

264

6084

961

359

6190

462

429

6293

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

3.29

1.47

0.74

1.41

1.37

1.07

0.97

0.84

0.89

0.85

0.82

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

5788

158

649

5909

259

970

6086

261

560

6218

662

769

6336

663

932

6448

7Pe

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tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

4.60

1.33

0.76

1.48

1.49

1.15

1.02

0.94

0.95

0.89

0.87

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…54

810

5578

356

203

5692

857

585

5811

558

620

5899

259

432

5986

960

284

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

…..…

……

……

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081.

780.

751.

291.

150.

920.

870.

640.

750.

740.

69TR

ADE,

TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

, UTI

LITI

ES…

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433

4244

142

843

4335

443

842

4419

744

416

4459

944

724

4488

244

974

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.05

0.02

0.95

1.19

1.12

0.81

0.50

0.41

0.28

0.35

0.21

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…69

632

7001

170

378

7102

871

708

7221

472

516

7282

173

143

7339

473

687

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

430.

540.

520.

920.

960.

710.

420.

420.

440.

340.

40R

ETAI

L TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

……

…28

302

2837

728

459

2854

928

595

2859

728

555

2851

028

435

2839

328

331

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.46

0.27

0.29

0.32

0.16

0.01

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5-0

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-0.2

6-0

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-0.2

2TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

5080

950

418

5079

251

415

5207

052

520

5276

553

147

5338

753

707

5395

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-3.6

1-0

.77

0.74

1.23

1.28

0.86

0.47

0.72

0.45

0.60

0.47

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…68

815

6846

568

298

6859

068

931

6914

069

226

6928

769

268

6924

969

233

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

94-0

.51

-0.2

40.

430.

500.

300.

120.

09-0

.03

-0.0

3-0

.02

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…71

842

7111

071

889

7368

775

633

7696

078

156

7970

081

051

8238

583

682

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…4.

46-1

.02

1.09

2.50

2.64

1.76

1.55

1.98

1.70

1.65

1.57

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

5970

860

094

6143

663

492

6572

067

583

6956

071

417

7350

875

775

7808

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

3.77

0.65

2.23

3.35

3.51

2.83

2.93

2.67

2.93

3.08

3.05

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4791

247

925

4831

148

957

4969

450

430

5066

151

205

5171

352

149

5248

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.81

0.03

0.80

1.34

1.50

1.48

0.46

1.07

0.99

0.84

0.65

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…22

339

2187

922

315

2251

822

707

2285

222

928

2296

323

049

2316

023

248

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-8

.18

-2.0

61.

990.

910.

840.

640.

330.

160.

370.

480.

38O

THER

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…44

097

4367

544

081

4475

445

371

4579

846

116

4636

846

868

4725

847

646

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…4.

96-0

.96

0.93

1.53

1.38

0.94

0.69

0.55

1.08

0.83

0.82

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…44

133

4408

944

224

4444

844

664

4472

644

785

4481

144

878

4485

445

104

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

61-0

.10

0.31

0.51

0.49

0.14

0.13

0.06

0.15

-0.0

50.

56FE

DER

AL, C

IVIL

IAN

……

……

……

……

……

7549

276

715

7743

478

047

7845

078

773

7905

679

357

7955

379

710

7985

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

1.17

1.62

0.94

0.79

0.52

0.41

0.36

0.38

0.25

0.20

0.18

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…39

851

3975

739

855

4006

240

279

4033

440

385

4040

040

468

4044

140

550

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-0

.11

-0.2

40.

250.

520.

540.

140.

120.

040.

17-0

.07

0.27

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0Fo

reca

st D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 9:

Ten

ness

ee A

vera

ge A

nnua

l Wag

e an

d Sa

lary

Rat

e by

Sec

tor (

curr

ent d

olla

rs)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…53

463

5439

855

969

5780

859

822

6182

263

845

6602

068

316

7063

673

019

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

791.

752.

893.

293.

483.

343.

273.

413.

483.

403.

37

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…61

326

6275

064

118

6580

967

759

6966

371

418

7332

575

415

7745

979

628

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…1.

612.

322.

182.

642.

962.

812.

522.

672.

852.

712.

80

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…63

112

6537

867

102

6913

471

279

7343

275

711

7802

680

457

8289

085

333

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…4.

583.

592.

643.

033.

103.

023.

103.

063.

123.

022.

95

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

6437

966

597

6836

170

484

7275

675

011

7737

479

819

8235

784

886

8743

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

5.91

3.44

2.65

3.11

3.22

3.10

3.15

3.16

3.18

3.07

3.00

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…60

964

6334

265

019

6690

868

837

7081

372

937

7501

677

244

7949

281

733

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

353.

902.

652.

912.

882.

873.

002.

852.

972.

912.

82

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4719

548

193

4956

250

955

5240

953

854

5526

456

713

5812

759

592

6097

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.8

22.

112.

842.

812.

852.

762.

622.

622.

492.

522.

32

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…77

448

7949

981

416

8348

085

720

8799

290

227

9260

095

063

9744

999

905

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…3.

722.

652.

412.

532.

682.

652.

542.

632.

662.

512.

52

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

3147

932

223

3292

333

554

3418

234

845

3552

836

253

3695

637

699

3841

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-2.2

52.

362.

171.

921.

871.

941.

962.

041.

942.

011.

89

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…56

510

5725

058

759

6042

962

246

6399

565

652

6758

269

387

7130

973

156

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.41

1.31

2.63

2.84

3.01

2.81

2.59

2.94

2.67

2.77

2.59

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…76

537

7774

279

010

8061

482

400

8424

686

133

8810

690

027

9194

493

866

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

201.

571.

632.

032.

222.

242.

242.

292.

182.

132.

09

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…79

904

8074

583

165

8660

790

414

9377

797

247

1013

5110

5344

1093

8911

3458

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…5.

761.

053.

004.

144.

403.

723.

704.

223.

943.

843.

72

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

6640

968

237

7107

474

624

7856

582

352

8655

290

819

9554

210

0615

1058

77Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

5.06

2.75

4.16

5.00

5.28

4.82

5.10

4.93

5.20

5.31

5.23

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

5328

954

419

5588

857

541

5940

561

449

6303

465

114

6721

169

241

7116

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.07

2.12

2.70

2.96

3.24

3.44

2.58

3.30

3.22

3.02

2.78

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…24

843

2484

525

815

2646

627

145

2784

528

527

2920

029

957

3075

031

519

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-7

.04

0.01

3.90

2.52

2.57

2.58

2.45

2.36

2.59

2.65

2.50

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

4904

649

593

5099

552

600

5423

855

805

5737

958

962

6091

462

748

6459

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

6.27

1.12

2.83

3.15

3.11

2.89

2.82

2.76

3.31

3.01

2.95

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…49

088

5006

351

160

5224

053

391

5449

855

722

5698

258

327

5955

461

152

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…1.

871.

992.

192.

112.

202.

072.

252.

262.

362.

102.

68

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…83

966

8711

189

579

9173

093

780

9598

498

364

1009

1210

3394

1058

3410

8269

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

443.

752.

832.

402.

232.

352.

482.

592.

462.

362.

30

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…44

323

4514

446

106

4708

548

150

4914

750

247

5137

352

596

5369

554

978

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…1.

141.

852.

132.

122.

262.

072.

242.

242.

382.

092.

39

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)



Tabl

e 10

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…32

9433

4133

9534

3034

6134

8535

0435

2235

4035

5235

69Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

-1.4

71.

431.

601.

040.

900.

690.

550.

510.

500.

350.

48

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…30

5031

6732

4732

8733

2133

4633

6633

8534

0234

1334

30Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

-5.5

93.

832.

541.

221.

050.

750.

600.

560.

510.

320.

48

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

…24

517

514

814

314

013

913

813

713

713

813

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

115.

87-2

8.47

-15.

43-3

.00

-2.4

3-0

.64

-0.6

7-0

.85

0.15

0.91

0.47

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

59.6

59.9

60.4

60.6

60.7

60.7

60.6

60.5

60.4

60.2

60.1

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

…-2

.29

0.61

0.80

0.28

0.16

-0.0

2-0

.14

-0.1

7-0

.16

-0.3

0-0

.15

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

…7.

55.

24.

44.

24.

04.

03.

93.

93.

93.

93.

9

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate



Tabl

e 11

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

1295

6313

2854

1361

1914

0021

1440

8814

7640

1512

2015

5237

1589

7016

2973

1674

19Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…0.

472.

542.

462.

872.

902.

472.

422.

662.

402.

522.

73

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

646

1257

912

573

1262

412

665

1268

512

695

1278

712

768

1283

112

895

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-0.2

0-0

.53

-0.0

50.

410.

320.

160.

090.

72-0

.15

0.50

0.50

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

6095

6033

5983

6049

6153

6204

6288

6342

6401

6483

6513

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

3.85

-1.0

2-0

.82

1.09

1.72

0.82

1.36

0.86

0.93

1.27

0.47

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…23

451

2291

522

394

2299

923

663

2423

524

842

2565

426

527

2740

028

314

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

7.27

-2.2

8-2

.28

2.70

2.89

2.42

2.51

3.27

3.40

3.29

3.33

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

1177

512

507

1287

913

243

1365

914

026

1437

814

740

1506

815

391

1572

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

4.33

6.21

2.98

2.83

3.14

2.68

2.51

2.52

2.22

2.15

2.16

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

1304

112

504

1276

713

051

1327

713

440

1366

013

802

1391

714

081

1422

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…8.

47-4

.12

2.11

2.22

1.73

1.23

1.64

1.03

0.83

1.19

1.02

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…11

8111

1410

4410

8011

2211

6011

9612

2812

6412

9913

36Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…22

.90

-5.6

6-6

.31

3.48

3.84

3.40

3.12

2.68

2.87

2.81

2.87

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…26

8735

2540

6441

6142

7044

0645

2146

0947

1348

5049

83Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-3

7.36

31.2

115

.27

2.41

2.61

3.18

2.61

1.95

2.27

2.90

2.74

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…42

399

4489

146

936

4910

851

308

5335

155

408

5772

859

842

6195

764

594

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

6.83

5.88

4.56

4.63

4.48

3.98

3.86

4.19

3.66

3.53

4.26

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

9280

9916

1011

210

361

1068

010

913

1111

711

326

1154

511

864

1211

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-5

.57

6.86

1.97

2.46

3.08

2.18

1.87

1.89

1.93

2.76

2.12

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…70

0768

6973

6773

4472

9172

2271

1470

2169

2668

1767

21Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

2.63

-1.9

77.

26-0

.31

-0.7

3-0

.94

-1.4

9-1

.31

-1.3

5-1

.58

-1.4

0

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1881

419

136

1945

319

859

2028

620

638

2099

321

406

2177

722

183

2264

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-0

.37

1.71

1.65

2.09

2.15

1.74

1.72

1.97

1.73

1.86

2.08

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

1441

2415

0860

1574

7216

4572

1722

4817

9903

1881

6019

7409

2066

1821

6395

2269

97Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…1.

734.

674.

384.

514.

664.

444.

594.

924.

664.

734.

90

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…14

066

1428

414

545

1483

715

140

1545

615

796

1626

016

594

1703

717

483

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

1.05

1.54

1.83

2.01

2.04

2.09

2.20

2.94

2.05

2.67

2.62

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

6781

6850

6922

7109

7355

7559

7824

8065

8319

8607

8830

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

5.16

1.03

1.05

2.71

3.46

2.77

3.50

3.08

3.16

3.46

2.59

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…26

087

2601

725

906

2703

228

288

2953

130

911

3262

334

478

3638

238

390

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

8.62

-0.2

7-0

.43

4.35

4.65

4.39

4.67

5.54

5.69

5.52

5.52

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

1310

114

202

1490

015

565

1632

917

091

1789

118

745

1958

420

437

2131

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

3.23

8.41

4.91

4.47

4.91

4.67

4.68

4.77

4.48

4.36

4.32

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

1450

314

198

1477

015

339

1587

116

376

1699

717

551

1808

718

697

1928

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…9.

81-2

.10

4.02

3.85

3.47

3.18

3.79

3.26

3.06

3.37

3.15

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…13

1412

6512

0812

7013

4114

1414

8915

6216

4217

2518

12Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…24

.45

-3.7

5-4

.50

5.13

5.62

5.40

5.30

4.94

5.14

5.03

5.04

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…29

9040

0447

0148

9151

0453

6856

2558

6161

2664

4067

56Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-3

6.53

33.9

117

.40

4.04

4.36

5.17

4.78

4.19

4.53

5.12

4.91

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…47

165

5097

754

300

5771

961

337

6501

168

944

7341

277

780

8226

887

582

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

8.17

8.08

6.52

6.30

6.27

5.99

6.05

6.48

5.95

5.77

6.46

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

1032

511

260

1169

812

177

1276

713

297

1383

214

403

1500

515

752

1642

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-4

.37

9.06

3.89

4.10

4.84

4.15

4.02

4.13

4.18

4.98

4.28

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…77

9278

0185

2386

3187

1588

0088

5289

2890

0290

5091

12Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

1.56

0.11

9.26

1.27

0.97

0.97

0.59

0.86

0.83

0.54

0.68

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

2092

921

729

2250

423

341

2425

025

148

2612

127

221

2830

529

454

3070

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…0.

883.

823.

573.

723.

903.

703.

874.

213.

984.

064.

24

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 13

: Ten

ness

ee G

ross

Dom

estic

Pro

duct

by

Sect

or (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)D

ecem

ber 2

020

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GR

OSS

DO

MES

TIC

PR

OD

UC

T....

......

......

......

......

......

...31

7,22

132

6,55

933

8,28

834

6,63

735

4,39

036

2,18

736

9,85

237

7,39

138

4,67

139

1,88

540

0,01

5

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-3.5

22.

943.

592.

472.

242.

202.

122.

041.

931.

882.

07

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

& M

ININ

G...

......

......

......

......

2,65

62,

598

2,62

92,

619

2,60

52,

597

2,59

12,

579

2,56

32,

544

2,52

7

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-7.8

7-2

.17

1.20

-0.4

1-0

.52

-0.2

9-0

.24

-0.4

6-0

.64

-0.7

4-0

.66

C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N...

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

11,5

2611

,601

11,7

0511

,783

11,8

4911

,943

12,0

4412

,130

12,2

3212

,316

12,4

05

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

0.50

0.65

0.89

0.67

0.56

0.79

0.85

0.71

0.84

0.69

0.72

M

ANU

FAC

TUR

ING

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

.....

47,1

2748

,514

50,2

6051

,299

52,3

9953

,529

54,6

5555

,882

57,1

0258

,397

59,7

38

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-4.3

22.

943.

602.

072.

152.

162.

102.

242.

182.

272.

30

D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...27

,097

28,0

6429

,448

30,1

6930

,954

31,7

6332

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33,4

9834

,407

35,3

5336

,368

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-5

.93

3.57

4.93

2.45

2.60

2.61

2.60

2.79

2.71

2.75

2.87

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

……

20,0

3020

,450

20,8

1221

,129

21,4

4621

,766

22,0

6622

,384

22,6

9523

,044

23,3

70

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-2.0

62.

101.

771.

521.

501.

491.

381.

441.

391.

541.

42

TR

ADE…

……

…...

......

......

......

……

......

......

......

……

....

60,5

2762

,573

64,4

2565

,668

67,1

0868

,541

69,9

2370

,796

71,6

3572

,479

73,3

86

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

0.80

3.39

2.26

1.94

2.21

2.15

2.03

1.25

1.20

1.19

1.26

W

HO

LESA

LE T

RAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

21,0

4522

,059

22,7

1523

,530

24,4

0525

,228

26,0

3526

,566

27,1

6427

,775

28,3

20

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-3.1

64.

822.

973.

593.

723.

373.

202.

042.

252.

251.

96

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…23

,661

24,5

6225

,451

25,7

1626

,094

26,4

9326

,901

27,2

7327

,649

28,0

1128

,484

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-1

.82

3.81

3.62

1.04

1.47

1.53

1.54

1.38

1.38

1.31

1.69

T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

……

……

…15

,822

15,9

5116

,259

16,4

2216

,609

16,8

2016

,986

16,9

5816

,822

16,6

9216

,582

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-2

.19

0.82

1.93

1.00

1.14

1.27

0.99

-0.1

7-0

.80

-0.7

7-0

.66

IN

FOR

MAT

ION

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

,198

12,5

0512

,779

12,9

9813

,199

13,3

5113

,574

13,7

9813

,965

14,1

6914

,425

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-0

.79

2.52

2.19

1.71

1.55

1.15

1.67

1.65

1.21

1.46

1.81

F

INAN

CIA

L AC

TIVI

TIES

……

……

……

……

……

……

…53

,947

54,4

3855

,347

56,1

5057

,149

57,9

6758

,645

59,5

3060

,459

61,1

7262

,249

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…2.

620.

911.

671.

451.

781.

431.

171.

511.

561.

181.

76

PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

……

……

…39

,949

41,6

1944

,000

46,0

1948

,205

50,5

3852

,924

55,2

9557

,606

59,8

1262

,031

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-2

.89

4.18

5.72

4.59

4.75

4.84

4.72

4.48

4.18

3.83

3.71

E

DU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

35,1

2136

,277

37,6

0838

,672

39,7

2040

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42,0

4543

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44,5

4145

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47,1

25

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-3.6

23.

293.

672.

832.

713.

042.

733.

062.

792.

902.

82

LEI

SUR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

……

……

11,8

3413

,564

16,0

3217

,545

17,9

1918

,281

18,6

4119

,019

19,3

8419

,799

20,1

52

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-33.

4714

.62

18.1

99.

442.

132.

021.

972.

031.

922.

141.

78

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…7,

607

7,82

38,

200

8,20

38,

203

8,15

98,

112

8,04

77,

957

7,86

27,

786

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-3

.06

2.84

4.82

0.04

0.00

-0.5

4-0

.57

-0.8

1-1

.12

-1.1

9-0

.96

G

OVE

RN

MEN

T……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…34

,729

35,0

4635

,303

35,6

8136

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36,3

5436

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36,9

8337

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37,5

0338

,191

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…-1

.05

0.91

0.74

1.07

0.98

0.89

0.95

0.78

0.66

0.74

1.84

FED

ERAL

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...…

……

……

…10

,267

10,4

0610

,506

10,5

8110

,664

10,7

3610

,824

10,8

8910

,953

11,0

2211

,522

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

…2.

181.

350.

960.

720.

780.

680.

820.

600.

580.

634.

54

S

TATE

& L

OC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

24,4

6124

,640

24,7

9825

,100

25,3

6925

,617

25,8

7326

,093

26,2

7626

,481

26,6

69

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

-2.3

40.

730.

641.

221.

070.

981.

000.

850.

700.

780.

71

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Fore

cast

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)

Historical Data | APPENDIX B


APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATAIn this Section—

Appendix B: Historical Data

Quarterly Pages 4o–63 (2017:2 to 2020:3) Annual Pages 64–76 (2008 to 2019)

Quarterly History TablesTable 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................40Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted .............................................42Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............43Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) ..........45Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ....................................46Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) .................47Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ..........48Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................49Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ........................50Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...............51Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) ................52Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) .......................53Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ............55Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ...................56Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted ............................................58Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted ...................................................59Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) .......................................................60Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............................................................61Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ....................................................62Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ...........................................................63

Annual History TablesTable 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................64Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators .................................................................................65Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) .........................................................................66Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) .....................................................................67Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (thousands of jobs) ..............................................................................68Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) ...........................................................69Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) .....................................................70Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) ............................................................71Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) ........................................................72Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate .......................................................................................73Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) ..................................................................................................74Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) ..............................................................................................75Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) ...............................................................76

APPENDIX B | Historical Data


Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

US

GD

P (B

il201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

…18

054.

118

185.

618

359.

418

530.

518

654.

418

752.

418

813.

918

950.

319

020.

619

141.

719

254.

019

010.

817

302.

518

584.

018

144.

118

687.

819

091.

7%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

1.72

2.95

3.88

3.78

2.70

2.12

1.32

2.93

1.49

2.57

2.37

-4.9

6-3

1.38

33.0

82.

333.

002.

16%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.18

2.37

2.70

3.08

3.33

3.12

2.48

2.27

1.96

2.08

2.34

0.32

-9.0

3-2

.91

2.33

3.00

2.16

US

GD

P (B

il$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

…19

379.

219

617.

319

938.

020

242.

220

552.

720

742.

720

909.

921

115.

321

329.

921

540.

321

747.

421

561.

119

520.

121

157.

619

543.

020

611.

921

433.

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

2.98

5.00

6.70

6.25

6.28

3.75

3.26

3.99

4.13

4.01

3.90

-3.3

8-3

2.82

38.0

24.

265.

473.

98%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.88

4.23

4.76

5.22

6.06

5.74

4.87

4.31

3.78

3.85

4.01

2.11

-8.4

8-1

.78

4.26

5.47

3.98

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL20

12$)

SAA

R…

2854

1828

6736

2896

3829

1815

2936

9329

7255

2986

0730

1754

3023

0330

2804

3037

5330

6492

3192

1931

0707

2863

1829

5343

3026

54%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

2.77

1.86

4.11

3.04

2.60

4.94

1.83

4.28

0.73

0.66

1.26

3.66

17.6

7-1

0.25

2.82

3.15

2.48

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

172.

803.

022.

942.

903.

673.

103.

412.

931.

871.

721.

575.

602.

612.

823.

152.

48

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

2012

$) S

AAR

…15

928

1606

016

198

1632

716

423

1656

816

652

1684

416

843

1689

016

974

1709

118

469

1781

715

991

1649

216

888

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…3.

843.

353.

503.

212.

393.

582.

044.

69-0

.02

1.13

1.99

2.80

36.3

7-1

3.39

3.03

3.14

2.40

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

053.

363.

623.

473.

113.

172.

803.

172.

561.

951.

931.

479.

665.

493.

033.

142.

40

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL$)

SAA

R…

……

3015

5630

4181

3092

6131

3658

3174

2632

2525

3251

5032

9038

3317

0533

3412

3357

3533

9845

3525

2934

6641

3034

6131

9690

3324

73%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

3.68

3.53

6.85

5.81

4.89

6.58

3.30

4.87

3.28

2.07

2.82

4.99

15.7

9-6

.52

4.66

5.35

4.00

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…4.

874.

494.

924.

965.

266.

035.

144.

904.

503.

383.

263.

286.

283.

974.

665.

354.

00

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

$) S

AAR

……

…16

828

1703

717

296

1754

917

750

1797

718

132

1836

718

481

1859

818

761

1895

120

397

1985

616

949

1785

218

552

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…4.

765.

046.

225.

984.

685.

203.

505.

282.

512.

553.

564.

1234

.19

-10.

194.

885.

333.

92%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.75

5.06

5.52

5.50

5.48

5.52

4.84

4.66

4.12

3.45

3.47

3.18

10.3

76.

774.

885.

333.

92

TN N

ON

FAR

M J

OBS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

……

3006

.930

17.4

3028

.530

42.3

3057

.230

70.5

3083

.331

06.5

3116

.231

28.0

3141

.331

52.0

2858

.729

84.2

3012

.430

63.3

3123

.0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

1.38

1.41

1.48

1.83

1.97

1.75

1.68

3.05

1.25

1.53

1.71

1.37

-32.

3518

.76

1.59

1.69

1.95

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

711.

401.

411.

521.

671.

761.

812.

111.

931.

871.

881.

47-8

.26

-4.6

01.

591.

691.

95

US

NO

NFA

RM

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

146.

314

6.9

147.

414

8.0

148.

614

9.2

149.

715

0.2

150.

615

1.2

151.

815

1.9

133.

714

0.8

146.

614

8.9

150.

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

1.44

1.48

1.46

1.67

1.76

1.53

1.31

1.30

1.14

1.47

1.67

0.35

-39.

9922

.91

1.57

1.57

1.37

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

631.

501.

481.

511.

591.

611.

571.

471.

321.

301.

401.

16-1

1.22

-6.8

61.

571.

571.

37

TN M

FG J

OBS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

……

……

…34

6.9

346.

234

6.2

347.

634

9.8

351.

735

2.9

354.

935

6.7

355.

835

2.9

352.

930

6.7

324.

334

6.2

350.

535

5.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…1.

43-0

.75

0.00

1.57

2.57

2.17

1.42

2.27

2.03

-0.9

5-3

.25

0.04

-42.

9925

.02

1.34

1.22

1.31

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

600.

930.

630.

560.

841.

571.

932.

111.

971.

180.

00-0

.55

-14.

02-8

.86

1.34

1.22

1.31

US

MFG

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

……

12.4

12.4

12.5

12.6

12.7

12.7

12.8

12.8

12.8

12.8

12.8

12.8

11.8

12.1

12.4

12.7

12.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…0.

821.

342.

152.

262.

351.

991.

981.

350.

150.

500.

00-0

.44

-29.

5013

.68

0.70

2.00

1.19

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…0.

520.

771.

361.

642.

022.

192.

151.

921.

370.

990.

500.

05-8

.35

-5.4

90.

702.

001.

19

TN U

NEM

PLO

YMEN

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

…3.

83.

53.

53.

63.

63.

53.

43.

43.

53.

43.

33.

412

.18.

23.

83.

53.

4

US

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (%

)……

……

……

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.8

13.0

8.8

4.4

3.9

3.7

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)




Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

CH

AIN

ED P

RIC

E IN

DEX

, GD

P((

2012

=100

.0)…

……

……

......

......

......

......

.....

107.

410

8.0

108.

610

9.3

110.

211

0.7

111.

211

1.5

112.

211

2.6

113.

011

3.4

112.

911

3.9

107.

811

0.3

112.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

1.27

2.25

2.50

2.43

3.23

1.85

1.78

1.22

2.48

1.51

1.38

1.39

-1.8

23.

591.

912.

391.

81%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.68

1.91

2.00

2.11

2.61

2.50

2.32

2.02

1.83

1.74

1.65

1.69

0.61

1.12

1.91

2.39

1.81

US

PER

S C

ON

SUM

P D

EFL

(201

2=10

0.0)

……

105.

710

6.1

106.

810

7.5

108.

110

8.5

108.

910

9.0

109.

711

0.1

110.

511

0.9

110.

411

1.4

106.

010

8.2

109.

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

0.89

1.64

2.63

2.69

2.24

1.56

1.44

0.56

2.53

1.40

1.54

1.28

-1.6

03.

701.

792.

131.

49%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.65

1.65

1.84

1.96

2.30

2.28

1.98

1.45

1.52

1.48

1.51

1.69

0.65

1.21

1.79

2.13

1.49

CO

NSU

MER

PR

ICE

IND

EX,

ALL-

UR

BAN

(82-

84=1

.000

)……

……

……

…2.

441

2.45

42.

473

2.49

22.

506

2.51

92.

527

2.53

32.

552

2.56

32.

578

2.58

62.

563

2.59

52.

451

2.51

12.

557

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…0.

382.

163.

123.

252.

192.

081.

300.

923.

031.

822.

371.

21-3

.53

5.16

2.14

2.44

1.81

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

911.

982.

122.

222.

682.

662.

201.

621.

831.

762.

032.

110.

441.

252.

142.

441.

81

BAN

K PR

IME

INTE

RES

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.5

5.3

4.8

4.4

3.3

3.3

4.1

4.9

5.3

FED

ERAL

FU

ND

S R

ATE

(% p

er a

nnum

)……

…0.

950

1.15

31.

203

1.44

71.

737

1.92

32.

220

2.40

32.

397

2.19

01.

643

1.26

00.

060

0.09

31.

002

1.83

22.

158

30-Y

EAR

FIX

ED M

OR

TGAG

E R

ATE

(%)…

……

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.2

2.9

4.0

4.5

3.9

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

2012

$)…

……

……

…29

444

2992

530

187

3063

630

809

3086

331

220

3165

332

152

3229

532

856

3161

031

443

3320

711

8169

1235

2812

8957

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…12

.13

6.69

3.56

6.08

2.28

0.70

4.72

5.66

6.45

1.80

7.13

-14.

33-2

.10

24.4

02.

994.

544.

39%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.97

4.59

4.88

7.07

4.64

3.13

3.42

3.32

4.36

4.64

5.24

-0.1

4-2

.21

2.82

2.99

4.54

4.39

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

$)…

……

……

……

…31

109

3174

532

233

3292

933

299

3348

633

996

3451

535

279

3556

036

315

3505

034

724

3704

712

5251

1337

1014

1670

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

…13

.12

8.44

6.28

8.93

4.57

2.27

6.22

6.26

9.15

3.22

8.77

-13.

23-3

.67

29.5

74.

856.

755.

95%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.67

6.31

6.80

9.17

7.04

5.48

5.47

4.82

5.95

6.19

6.82

1.55

-1.5

74.

184.

856.

755.

95

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M (2

012$

)……

……

…...

......

......

......

......

......

....

4628

146

411

4683

346

805

4665

947

200

4716

847

511

4751

647

261

4710

747

644

4859

448

052

4642

346

958

4734

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

0.99

1.13

3.68

-0.2

4-1

.24

4.72

-0.2

72.

940.

05-2

.13

-1.3

04.

638.

23-4

.39

1.04

1.15

0.83

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

481.

151.

061.

380.

821.

700.

721.

511.

840.

13-0

.13

0.28

2.27

1.67

1.04

1.15

0.83

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M ($

)……

4889

749

235

5000

650

308

5042

951

212

5136

151

807

5213

852

039

5206

752

828

5366

553

609

4920

250

828

5201

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

……

1.88

2.79

6.41

2.44

0.97

6.35

1.17

3.52

2.58

-0.7

60.

225.

976.

49-0

.42

2.85

3.30

2.33

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

152.

822.

923.

373.

134.

022.

712.

983.

391.

611.

381.

972.

933.

022.

853.

302.

33

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel



Tabl

e 2:

Sel

ecte

d Pe

r Cap

ita U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

US

GD

P (2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

.……

…55

516

5582

856

289

5675

557

060

5727

557

399

5776

157

906

5818

558

457

5766

252

414

5621

055

750

5712

358

078

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

1.09

2.27

3.34

3.36

2.17

1.52

0.86

2.55

1.00

1.94

1.88

-5.3

3-3

1.73

32.2

71.

712.

461.

67%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

541.

762.

122.

512.

782.

591.

971.

771.

481.

591.

84-0

.17

-9.4

8-3

.39

1.71

2.46

1.67

US

GD

P ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

…59

591

6022

361

129

6199

862

867

6335

563

793

6436

064

936

6547

666

027

6539

759

131

6399

460

048

6300

465

201

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

2.35

4.32

6.15

5.81

5.72

3.14

2.80

3.61

3.63

3.37

3.41

-3.7

6-3

3.16

37.1

83.

624.

923.

49%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

223.

604.

164.

655.

505.

204.

363.

813.

293.

353.

501.

61-8

.94

-2.2

63.

624.

923.

49

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (2

012$

) SAA

R…

….

4254

442

740

4317

343

104

4338

143

908

4410

744

189

4427

044

343

4448

244

507

4635

545

119

4267

843

625

4432

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…2.

771.

864.

11-0

.64

2.60

4.94

1.83

0.74

0.73

0.66

1.26

0.22

17.6

7-1

0.25

1.85

2.22

1.60

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.19

1.82

2.04

2.01

1.97

2.73

2.16

2.52

2.05

0.99

0.85

0.72

4.71

1.75

1.85

2.22

1.60

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

4897

849

301

4966

350

005

5023

550

604

5080

251

340

5127

551

341

5153

351

839

5594

853

891

4913

450

412

5137

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…3.

202.

672.

962.

791.

852.

971.

584.

31-0

.50

0.52

1.50

2.39

35.6

8-1

3.92

2.40

2.60

1.91

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.40

2.74

3.03

2.91

2.57

2.64

2.29

2.67

2.07

1.46

1.44

0.97

9.11

4.97

2.40

2.60

1.91

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

4494

945

341

4609

846

330

4688

747

640

4802

848

185

4857

548

825

4916

649

350

5119

250

337

4523

347

221

4868

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…3.

683.

536.

852.

034.

896.

583.

301.

313.

282.

072.

821.

5115

.79

-6.5

23.

674.

403.

11%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

873.

503.

924.

014.

315.

074.

194.

003.

602.

492.

372.

425.

393.

103.

674.

403.

11

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($) S

AAR

……

……

.51

747

5230

153

027

5374

854

295

5490

655

318

5598

356

263

5653

156

959

5748

061

787

6005

752

077

5456

856

434

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

4.12

4.35

5.67

5.55

4.13

4.58

3.04

4.89

2.02

1.92

3.06

3.71

33.5

1-1

0.74

4.23

4.78

3.42

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

4.09

4.43

4.92

4.92

4.92

4.98

4.32

4.16

3.62

2.96

2.97

2.68

9.82

6.24

4.23

4.78

3.42

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(201

2$)…

……

……

……

4389

4461

4500

4525

4551

4559

4612

4635

4708

4729

4811

4590

4566

4822

1761

418

246

1888

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…12

.13

6.69

3.56

2.29

2.28

0.70

4.72

2.08

6.45

1.80

7.13

-17.

16-2

.10

24.4

02.

013.

593.

50%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

993.

593.

886.

103.

692.

202.

492.

433.

463.

744.

33-0

.97

-3.0

31.

962.

013.

593.

50

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

($)…

……

……

……

……

4637

4732

4805

4864

4919

4946

5022

5054

5166

5207

5318

5090

5042

5380

1867

019

750

2074

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…13

.12

8.44

6.28

5.04

4.57

2.27

6.22

2.65

9.15

3.22

8.77

-16.

10-3

.67

29.5

73.

855.

795.

04%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

675.

305.

798.

186.

074.

534.

523.

925.

045.

285.

910.

70-2

.40

3.31

3.85

5.79

5.04

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 3:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d An

nual

Rat

es (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

..……

…28

3478

2854

1828

6736

2896

3829

1815

2936

9329

7255

2986

0730

1754

3023

0330

2804

3037

5330

6492

3192

1928

6318

2953

4330

2654

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

3.37

2.77

1.86

4.11

3.04

2.60

4.94

1.83

4.28

0.73

0.66

1.26

3.66

17.6

72.

823.

152.

48%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…2.

303.

172.

803.

022.

942.

903.

673.

103.

412.

931.

871.

721.

575.

602.

823.

152.

48

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

1392

0714

0017

1409

0014

2697

1432

6414

3514

1458

0614

6312

1484

3814

8914

1486

8014

8843

1510

3013

9763

1407

0514

4724

1487

19%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…-0

.15

2.35

2.55

5.20

1.60

0.70

6.54

1.40

5.94

1.29

-0.6

30.

446.

01-2

6.66

2.62

2.86

2.76

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

2.30

3.19

2.54

2.47

2.91

2.50

3.48

2.53

3.61

3.76

1.97

1.73

1.75

-6.1

52.

622.

862.

76

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…30

225

3058

930

821

3128

831

385

3170

132

126

3227

932

442

3255

132

549

3250

732

699

3098

530

731

3187

332

512

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

0.29

4.90

3.07

6.20

1.26

4.08

5.48

1.91

2.04

1.35

-0.0

3-0

.50

2.38

-19.

383.

203.

722.

01%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…1.

993.

753.

453.

593.

843.

644.

243.

173.

372.

681.

310.

710.

79-4

.81

3.20

3.72

2.01

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…39

880

3943

439

278

3963

539

918

4032

140

758

4119

841

450

4127

642

033

4238

942

398

3383

439

557

4054

941

787

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

9.19

-4.4

0-1

.57

3.68

2.88

4.10

4.41

4.38

2.47

-1.6

77.

543.

430.

08-5

9.45

1.95

2.51

3.05

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

2.88

2.14

1.19

1.59

0.09

2.25

3.77

3.94

3.84

2.37

3.13

2.89

2.29

-18.

031.

952.

513.

05

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

…41

874

4283

543

344

4387

544

409

4488

245

317

4546

744

889

4500

444

850

4488

744

824

4400

442

982

4501

944

907

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

11.1

29.

504.

844.

984.

964.

333.

931.

33-4

.99

1.03

-1.3

70.

33-0

.56

-7.1

27.

064.

74-0

.25

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

5.54

7.40

7.72

7.57

6.05

4.78

4.55

3.63

1.08

0.27

-1.0

3-1

.28

-0.1

5-2

.22

7.06

4.74

-0.2

5

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

5607

756

522

5650

156

526

5738

557

804

5816

458

363

6003

560

213

6029

560

710

6159

295

256

5640

757

929

6031

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…4.

393.

21-0

.15

0.17

6.22

2.95

2.51

1.38

11.9

61.

190.

552.

785.

9447

2.13

1.15

2.70

4.12

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

0.33

1.24

1.14

1.89

2.33

2.27

2.94

3.25

4.62

4.17

3.67

4.02

2.59

58.2

01.

152.

704.

12

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

2213

622

295

2240

922

621

2272

722

698

2301

023

103

2355

123

670

2363

823

652

2404

422

818

2236

522

885

2362

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…3.

662.

912.

063.

841.

89-0

.51

5.61

1.63

7.97

2.04

-0.5

30.

236.

79-1

8.88

3.72

2.32

3.25

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

3.49

4.57

3.74

3.11

2.67

1.81

2.68

2.13

3.62

4.28

2.73

2.37

2.09

-3.6

03.

722.

323.

25

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

-165

0-1

683

-169

9-1

761

-181

8-1

830

-190

6-1

908

-194

9-1

986

-196

5-1

931

-200

7-1

805

-169

8-1

866

-195

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

…-3

.98

8.39

3.83

15.3

813

.62

2.58

17.6

70.

528.

897.

75-4

.26

-6.6

716

.64

-34.

477.

179.

844.

94%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…6.

739.

676.

745.

6710

.21

8.70

12.1

68.

367.

218.

543.

081.

192.

94-9

.10

7.17

9.84

4.94

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

…42

255

4254

442

740

4317

343

104

4338

143

908

4410

744

189

4427

044

343

4448

244

507

4635

542

678

4362

544

321

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

-0.5

02.

771.

864.

11-0

.64

2.60

4.94

1.83

0.74

0.73

0.66

1.26

0.22

17.6

71.

852.

221.

60%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

…1.

322.

191.

822.

042.

011.

972.

732.

162.

522.

050.

990.

850.

724.

711.

852.

221.

60

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 4:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d An

nual

Rat

es (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

..……

……

2988

4630

1556

3041

8130

9261

3136

5831

7426

3225

2532

5150

3290

3833

1705

3334

1233

5735

3398

4535

2529

3034

6131

9690

3324

73%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

5.66

3.68

3.53

6.85

5.81

4.89

6.58

3.30

4.87

3.28

2.07

2.82

4.99

15.7

94.

665.

354.

00%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

4.37

4.87

4.49

4.92

4.96

5.26

6.03

5.14

4.90

4.50

3.38

3.26

3.28

6.28

4.66

5.35

4.00

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

…14

6753

1479

3314

9472

1523

6515

3987

1551

1115

8201

1593

1816

1860

1633

9816

3709

1645

1416

7465

1543

4714

9131

1566

5416

3370

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

…2.

053.

264.

237.

974.

332.

958.

212.

856.

543.

860.

761.

987.

37-2

7.84

4.46

5.04

4.29

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…4.

374.

894.

234.

354.

934.

855.

844.

565.

115.

343.

483.

263.

46-5

.54

4.46

5.04

4.29

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

3186

432

318

3269

633

407

3373

534

263

3485

735

148

3537

535

717

3583

935

930

3625

734

218

3257

134

501

3571

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

2.50

5.83

4.76

8.99

3.98

6.41

7.13

3.37

2.62

3.92

1.37

1.03

3.69

-20.

675.

045.

923.

52%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

4.06

5.46

5.15

5.49

5.87

6.02

6.61

5.21

4.86

4.24

2.81

2.23

2.49

-4.2

05.

045.

923.

52

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

……

4204

241

664

4166

842

320

4290

543

579

4422

344

860

4519

845

290

4628

246

852

4701

237

365

4192

343

892

4590

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

11.6

0-3

.55

0.04

6.41

5.65

6.43

6.05

5.89

3.05

0.82

9.05

5.02

1.37

-60.

103.

774.

704.

59%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

4.96

3.83

2.86

3.46

2.05

4.60

6.13

6.00

5.34

3.93

4.66

4.44

4.01

-17.

503.

774.

704.

59

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

…44

144

4525

745

981

4684

747

733

4850

949

169

4950

948

948

4938

249

383

4961

349

701

4859

545

558

4873

049

331

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

…13

.57

10.4

76.

557.

757.

786.

665.

562.

79-4

.45

3.59

0.01

1.87

0.72

-8.6

18.

986.

961.

23%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

7.68

9.16

9.50

9.55

8.13

7.18

6.93

5.68

2.54

1.80

0.44

0.21

1.54

-1.5

98.

986.

961.

23

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

5911

759

718

5993

960

355

6168

062

475

6310

863

551

6546

466

070

6639

067

102

6829

410

5197

5978

262

703

6625

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

6.69

4.13

1.49

2.81

9.07

5.25

4.12

2.84

12.5

93.

751.

964.

367.

3046

2.96

2.96

4.89

5.67

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…2.

372.

902.

803.

764.

344.

625.

295.

296.

135.

755.

205.

594.

3259

.22

2.96

4.89

5.67

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

2333

623

556

2377

224

154

2442

824

532

2496

625

157

2568

025

972

2602

826

142

2666

025

200

2370

424

771

2595

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

5.95

3.82

3.73

6.57

4.63

1.71

7.26

3.09

8.58

4.62

0.86

1.77

8.16

-20.

185.

584.

504.

78%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

5.59

6.29

5.45

5.01

4.68

4.15

5.02

4.15

5.12

5.87

4.25

3.92

3.82

-2.9

75.

584.

504.

78

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

-173

9-1

779

-180

3-1

880

-195

4-1

978

-206

8-2

078

-212

6-2

179

-216

3-2

134

-222

5-1

994

-180

0-2

019

-215

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

-1.8

69.

355.

5318

.41

16.6

74.

8819

.51

1.97

9.50

10.4

7-2

.92

-5.2

418

.14

-35.

529.

0812

.18

6.49

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…8.

9011

.48

8.49

7.61

12.3

711

.20

14.7

110

.50

8.77

10.1

94.

612.

714.

68-8

.51

9.08

12.1

86.

49

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

…44

545

4494

945

341

4609

846

330

4688

747

640

4802

848

185

4857

548

825

4916

649

350

5119

245

233

4722

148

688

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

…1.

693.

683.

536.

852.

034.

896.

583.

301.

313.

282.

072.

821.

5115

.79

3.67

4.40

3.11

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…3.

383.

873.

503.

924.

014.

315.

074.

194.

003.

602.

492.

372.

425.

393.

674.

403.

11

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 5:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Not

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……3

005.

430

10.7

3064

.130

15.4

3055

.030

63.6

3118

.930

79.8

3114

.131

21.1

3173

.331

31.7

2857

.129

76.4

3012

.430

63.3

3122

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.1.

641.

421.

501.

551.

651.

761.

792.

131.

931.

881.

741.

69-8

.25

-4.6

41.

591.

691.

92N

ATU

RAL

RES

OU

RC

ES, M

ININ

G &

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

…12

4.9

126.

712

6.2

122.

912

8.9

132.

213

1.7

129.

613

5.7

136.

913

4.8

130.

913

0.5

131.

912

4.4

128.

913

4.3

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

5.25

4.25

3.87

2.76

3.20

4.29

4.36

5.48

5.27

3.58

2.38

1.00

-3.8

3-3

.68

4.38

3.67

4.15

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

346.

734

6.6

346.

734

7.0

349.

435

2.2

353.

535

4.4

356.

035

6.5

353.

535

2.4

306.

332

5.1

346.

335

0.5

355.

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.1.

530.

950.

650.

570.

771.

601.

962.

131.

891.

220.

02-0

.55

-13.

97-8

.81

1.34

1.23

1.31

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…22

2.7

221.

722

1.8

221.

822

3.3

225.

022

6.5

227.

822

8.5

228.

522

4.9

223.

819

0.4

204.

822

2.0

224.

122

7.4

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

1.43

0.45

0.17

-0.0

80.

251.

492.

102.

722.

361.

57-0

.72

-1.7

7-1

6.67

-10.

361.

140.

941.

47N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

4.0

125.

012

4.8

125.

212

6.1

127.

212

7.0

126.

612

7.5

128.

012

8.7

128.

611

5.8

120.

212

4.2

126.

412

7.7

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

1.72

1.85

1.52

1.73

1.69

1.79

1.71

1.09

1.06

0.60

1.34

1.63

-9.1

3-6

.04

1.71

1.73

1.02

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

……

……

…61

5.1

618.

763

3.7

617.

762

1.8

624.

864

1.8

629.

763

3.0

636.

265

5.8

647.

261

6.1

632.

861

9.7

626.

563

8.7

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

0.52

0.53

0.77

1.04

1.10

0.99

1.28

1.94

1.80

1.83

2.18

2.77

-2.6

8-0

.54

0.72

1.10

1.94

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

118.

111

8.3

118.

811

8.2

119.

111

9.5

120.

312

0.1

121.

012

1.3

121.

712

0.7

115.

711

6.9

118.

111

9.3

121.

0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.1.

520.

971.

110.

770.

871.

071.

291.

611.

541.

451.

160.

47-4

.38

-3.5

71.

161.

001.

44R

ETAI

L TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

334.

233

4.3

343.

433

3.1

335.

633

3.7

340.

733

2.3

332.

533

2.2

344.

133

8.9

322.

133

5.9

336.

033

5.8

335.

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.0.

480.

250.

350.

280.

42-0

.19

-0.7

9-0

.24

-0.9

3-0

.45

1.01

1.98

-3.1

31.

130.

60-0

.07

-0.1

5TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

……

……

…16

2.7

166.

117

1.5

166.

416

7.1

171.

618

0.8

177.

317

9.6

182.

819

0.0

187.

617

8.3

179.

916

5.6

171.

518

2.4

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

-0.1

20.

791.

402.

782.

663.

295.

406.

557.

486.

535.

075.

83-0

.71

-1.5

90.

643.

566.

38IN

FOR

MAT

ION

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…46

.345

.846

.745

.346

.144

.644

.644

.145

.545

.746

.645

.642

.843

.146

.145

.245

.5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.0.

871.

101.

89-0

.44

-0.3

6-2

.62

-4.5

6-2

.65

-1.2

32.

474.

413.

32-6

.08

-5.6

91.

15-2

.01

0.72

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

162.

016

4.2

165.

716

5.8

168.

216

9.8

169.

616

9.8

172.

017

3.9

173.

117

4.1

172.

517

4.7

162.

716

8.4

172.

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.4.

184.

084.

634.

393.

853.

452.

372.

412.

242.

412.

062.

570.

330.

464.

233.

502.

28PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

……

……

……

406.

140

9.6

419.

040

6.2

414.

041

6.7

427.

541

8.1

424.

142

8.4

435.

842

4.1

387.

040

5.9

408.

641

6.1

426.

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.0.

640.

841.

041.

661.

951.

742.

012.

942.

442.

801.

961.

44-8

.75

-5.2

50.

861.

842.

53ED

UC

ATIO

N &

HEA

LTH

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

428.

942

8.5

437.

043

4.4

433.

543

4.1

441.

443

9.8

439.

644

0.6

448.

944

8.0

418.

342

9.3

430.

943

5.9

442.

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.1.

841.

231.

361.

271.

071.

301.

001.

251.

401.

511.

691.

86-4

.85

-2.5

61.

641.

161.

46LE

ISU

RE

& H

OSP

ITAL

ITY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…33

5.0

336.

832

9.7

321.

834

3.4

346.

833

8.7

332.

335

3.3

357.

235

3.5

344.

825

2.6

304.

732

8.9

337.

734

9.1

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

2.86

2.60

2.91

2.40

2.52

2.96

2.73

3.26

2.88

2.99

4.37

3.76

-28.

51-1

4.70

2.92

2.66

3.37

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…11

5.0

115.

711

5.8

115.

711

8.7

119.

711

9.5

119.

312

2.1

122.

212

1.3

119.

810

7.1

117.

911

4.6

118.

412

1.2

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

3.11

3.43

3.61

3.37

3.25

3.52

3.22

3.08

2.89

2.06

1.51

0.48

-12.

31-3

.55

3.25

3.34

2.38

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

425.

441

8.0

443.

643

8.7

430.

942

2.7

450.

744

2.7

432.

742

3.5

450.

044

4.7

423.

941

1.2

430.

443

5.8

437.

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

.0.

930.

590.

371.

001.

291.

121.

600.

910.

420.

19-0

.16

0.45

-2.0

3-2

.91

0.55

1.25

0.34

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

49.2

49.0

48.8

48.8

48.8

49.1

49.8

49.5

49.9

50.4

50.5

50.1

50.2

54.0

49.1

49.1

50.1

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

0.20

-0.6

8-1

.42

-1.1

5-0

.81

0.20

2.19

1.57

2.18

2.65

1.27

1.14

0.67

7.08

-0.3

20.

101.

92ST

ATE

& LO

CAL

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…37

6.2

369.

039

4.9

390.

038

2.1

373.

640

0.9

393.

238

2.8

373.

139

9.5

394.

637

3.7

357.

238

1.3

386.

638

7.2

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr..

......

......

......

......

......

......

....

1.03

0.76

0.59

1.27

1.57

1.24

1.53

0.83

0.19

-0.1

3-0

.34

0.36

-2.3

9-4

.26

0.66

1.40

0.14

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

aAn

nual

Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 6:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

222.

722

1.7

221.

822

1.8

223.

322

5.0

226.

522

7.8

228.

522

8.5

224.

922

3.8

190.

420

4.8

222.

022

4.1

227.

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

430.

450.

17-0

.08

0.25

1.49

2.10

2.72

2.36

1.57

-0.7

2-1

.77

-16.

67-1

0.36

1.14

0.94

1.47

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

……

…12

.512

.612

.612

.512

.612

.612

.412

.312

.512

.712

.612

.412

.713

.312

.512

.512

.6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…3.

312.

992.

430.

541.

07-0

.53

-1.5

8-1

.07

-0.7

91.

331.

340.

271.

334.

713.

29-0

.13

0.20

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

13.7

13.7

13.7

13.8

14.2

14.4

14.4

14.2

14.4

14.3

14.2

14.1

13.9

14.5

13.6

14.2

14.3

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

2.76

1.73

2.75

2.98

3.90

4.87

5.35

2.41

1.64

-0.2

3-1

.62

-0.4

7-3

.70

1.16

2.32

4.28

0.53

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

….…

……

……

……

…10

.710

.710

.810

.910

.911

.111

.211

.411

.311

.311

.311

.211

.512

.110

.711

.011

.3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…0.

312.

560.

931.

242.

183.

744.

014.

603.

662.

100.

59-1

.47

1.76

6.76

0.78

2.80

2.72

FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

35.6

35.4

35.7

35.8

36.3

37.0

37.4

37.9

38.1

38.1

37.9

37.3

37.0

38.5

35.6

36.6

38.0

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-0.8

4-0

.84

0.47

0.94

1.97

4.42

4.67

5.77

4.96

3.06

1.43

-1.5

0-2

.89

0.87

-0.4

93.

003.

78

MAC

HIN

ERY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

25.7

25.2

25.0

25.2

26.0

25.9

26.1

26.9

27.0

26.5

25.9

26.0

25.7

26.6

25.3

25.8

26.6

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-1.4

1-1

.69

-0.7

90.

261.

302.

774.

396.

613.

722.

19-0

.77

-3.4

7-4

.82

0.38

-0.7

92.

182.

90

CO

MPU

TER

& E

LEC

TRO

NIC

PR

OD

UC

TS…

…4.

94.

94.

95.

05.

15.

35.

55.

75.

75.

65.

65.

55.

65.

84.

95.

25.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…2.

802.

082.

073.

454.

088.

8411

.49

13.3

311

.76

5.62

1.82

-2.9

4-1

.75

2.96

1.91

6.98

7.96

ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

……

……

19.3

19.2

19.2

19.0

18.9

18.6

18.2

17.7

17.6

17.6

17.3

17.4

17.6

17.9

19.3

18.7

17.6

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

-3.3

4-3

.85

-2.3

7-2

.23

-2.0

8-2

.78

-5.5

5-6

.50

-6.7

1-5

.55

-4.5

9-1

.69

-0.1

91.

89-3

.06

-3.1

6-5

.85

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IPM

ENT…

……

……

…74

.874

.273

.773

.773

.374

.075

.275

.875

.775

.673

.473

.540

.148

.474

.574

.075

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…4.

081.

41-1

.25

-1.9

5-2

.05

-0.3

62.

082.

763.

322.

25-2

.39

-3.0

4-4

6.98

-35.

962.

69-0

.58

1.46

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…9.

69.

49.

59.

69.

69.

69.

69.

69.

69.

79.

89.

89.

610

.29.

59.

69.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

77-0

.71

0.00

0.00

0.70

2.49

1.40

0.70

0.00

1.04

2.08

2.08

-0.3

54.

810.

881.

140.

95

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

16.0

16.3

16.6

16.3

16.3

16.5

16.4

16.4

16.5

16.9

16.8

16.6

16.7

17.5

16.2

16.4

16.6

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

2.78

3.60

5.94

3.60

1.87

1.02

-1.4

00.

411.

222.

632.

241.

431.

213.

553.

631.

241.

63

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 7:

Ten

ness

ee N

ondu

rabl

e G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

124.

012

5.0

124.

812

5.2

126.

112

7.2

127.

012

6.6

127.

512

8.0

128.

712

8.6

115.

812

0.2

124.

212

6.4

127.

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…1.

721.

851.

521.

731.

691.

791.

711.

091.

060.

601.

341.

63-9

.13

-6.0

41.

711.

731.

02

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

35.0

35.8

35.9

35.8

35.7

35.7

35.5

35.4

35.8

36.1

36.2

36.0

33.3

33.3

35.4

35.7

35.9

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

……

2.94

3.37

2.87

2.48

1.81

-0.2

8-0

.93

-1.1

20.

281.

031.

971.

89-6

.80

-7.8

53.

060.

750.

54

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

……

……

…6.

97.

17.

17.

07.

27.

37.

37.

07.

37.

67.

77.

77.

17.

36.

97.

27.

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…5.

615.

975.

476.

034.

353.

293.

30-0

.47

1.85

3.18

5.48

9.52

-2.7

3-3

.08

5.59

4.21

2.54

PAPE

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…12

.112

.011

.711

.912

.012

.212

.212

.312

.512

.812

.812

.712

.612

.711

.912

.112

.6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…0.

560.

00-1

.95

0.85

-0.2

82.

233.

693.

073.

604.

904.

933.

521.

07-1

.04

-0.3

51.

614.

14

PRIN

TIN

G &

REL

ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

…9.

08.

98.

98.

88.

99.

09.

18.

98.

98.

98.

98.

76.

97.

09.

09.

08.

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-2

.88

-2.1

9-2

.20

-2.9

3-1

.11

1.12

2.25

0.75

0.00

-1.4

8-2

.20

-1.8

7-2

2.10

-21.

72-2

.27

-0.1

9-0

.74

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…25

.025

.125

.125

.325

.525

.725

.825

.725

.926

.026

.126

.125

.825

.925

.025

.625

.9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

.45

-0.7

90.

001.

742.

002.

122.

521.

711.

831.

301.

291.

30-0

.51

-0.3

8-1

.09

2.10

1.53

PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

…24

.624

.324

.424

.524

.825

.025

.025

.125

.024

.724

.624

.419

.721

.724

.324

.824

.8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…6.

354.

893.

251.

661.

093.

022.

462.

310.

67-1

.46

-1.6

0-2

.66

-21.

33-1

2.03

5.11

2.05

-0.0

3

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

…11

.511

.711

.811

.812

.012

.212

.112

.212

.111

.912

.413

.010

.412

.411

.612

.012

.1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

…-1

.43

-0.2

81.

441.

724.

643.

993.

123.

110.

28-2

.19

2.20

6.58

-14.

093.

920.

073.

360.

83

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…30

06.9

3017

.430

28.5

3042

.330

57.2

3070

.530

83.3

3106

.531

16.2

3128

.031

41.3

3152

.028

58.7

2984

.230

12.4

3063

.331

23.0

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.38

1.41

1.48

1.83

1.97

1.75

1.68

3.05

1.25

1.53

1.71

1.37

-32.

3518

.76

1.59

1.69

1.95

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.71

1.40

1.41

1.52

1.67

1.76

1.81

2.11

1.93

1.87

1.88

1.47

-8.2

6-4

.60

1.59

1.69

1.95

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…12

4.13

124.

7312

5.67

126.

6712

8.00

129.

8313

1.37

133.

5713

4.33

134.

5013

4.27

133.

3313

0.47

130.

6312

4.51

128.

9713

4.17

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

2.07

1.95

3.03

3.22

4.28

5.85

4.81

6.87

2.32

0.50

-0.6

9-2

.75

-8.3

30.

514.

393.

584.

03%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…5.

324.

323.

912.

563.

114.

094.

545.

454.

953.

592.

21-0

.17

-2.8

8-2

.87

4.39

3.58

4.03

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…34

6.9

346.

234

6.2

347.

634

9.8

351.

735

2.9

354.

935

6.7

355.

835

2.9

352.

930

6.7

324.

334

6.2

350.

535

5.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.43

-0.7

50.

001.

572.

572.

171.

422.

272.

03-0

.95

-3.2

50.

04-4

2.99

25.0

21.

341.

221.

31%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

600.

930.

630.

560.

841.

571.

932.

111.

971.

180.

00-0

.55

-14.

02-8

.86

1.34

1.22

1.31

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

222.

822

1.6

221.

622

2.0

223.

522

4.7

226.

222

8.0

229.

022

8.1

224.

622

4.0

190.

620

4.3

222.

022

4.1

227.

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

10-2

.17

0.13

0.64

2.80

2.19

2.70

3.10

1.84

-1.5

0-6

.14

-1.0

8-4

7.48

31.9

41.

130.

941.

48%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

500.

410.

15-0

.08

0.33

1.43

2.08

2.70

2.46

1.52

-0.7

4-1

.76

-16.

75-1

0.44

1.13

0.94

1.48

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…12

4.1

124.

712

4.6

125.

612

6.3

126.

912

6.7

126.

912

7.7

127.

712

8.4

129.

011

6.0

120.

012

4.2

126.

412

7.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

2.01

1.85

-0.2

33.

222.

162.

14-0

.83

0.79

2.39

0.04

2.08

2.03

-34.

5214

.25

1.70

1.73

1.02

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.77

1.86

1.49

1.70

1.74

1.81

1.66

1.06

1.11

0.59

1.32

1.63

-9.1

1-6

.05

1.70

1.73

1.02

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

618.

362

0.3

621.

862

4.1

625.

162

6.8

629.

763

6.2

636.

763

8.4

646.

065

2.6

617.

763

5.1

619.

662

6.4

639.

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…0.

241.

300.

971.

530.

621.

091.

864.

170.

361.

034.

874.

13-1

9.74

11.8

00.

681.

112.

06%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

630.

530.

581.

011.

111.

051.

281.

931.

861.

852.

592.

58-2

.99

-0.5

10.

681.

112.

06

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…11

8.0

118.

111

8.4

118.

711

9.0

119.

412

0.0

120.

512

0.9

121.

112

1.2

121.

311

5.9

116.

811

8.1

119.

312

0.9

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

0.68

0.23

1.02

0.90

1.24

1.12

2.14

1.79

1.33

0.66

0.11

0.33

-16.

663.

141.

130.

991.

40%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

550.

970.

940.

710.

851.

071.

351.

571.

601.

480.

970.

61-4

.19

-3.6

051.

130.

991.

40

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

335.

533

5.7

336.

233

7.0

336.

933

5.3

333.

533

6.2

333.

833

3.8

338.

634

2.4

322.

633

7.8

335.

933

5.7

335.

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-0

.75

0.16

0.60

1.04

-0.1

6-1

.89

-2.0

93.

24-2

.83

0.04

5.79

4.61

-21.

2320

.32

0.54

-0.0

6-0

.03

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.59

0.27

0.14

0.26

0.41

-0.1

1-0

.78

-0.2

5-0

.92

-0.4

41.

511.

84-3

.37

1.20

0.54

-0.0

6-0

.03

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…16

4.7

166.

516

7.2

168.

416

9.2

172.

117

6.2

179.

418

2.0

183.

418

6.3

188.

917

9.2

180.

516

5.6

171.

518

2.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.97

4.44

1.69

2.98

1.75

7.20

9.71

7.63

5.85

3.11

6.40

5.78

-18.

952.

930.

653.

566.

59%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

060.

771.

212.

772.

713.

385.

366.

537.

596.

555.

735.

28-1

.52

-1.5

60.

653.

566.

59

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…45

.845

.946

.445

.845

.644

.744

.344

.645

.345

.846

.345

.942

.543

.146

.045

.145

.5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

.16

1.17

4.73

-5.6

2-1

.45

-7.3

9-3

.82

2.43

7.06

4.49

4.14

-3.1

3-2

6.48

5.76

1.08

-1.9

60.

91%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

881.

031.

53-0

.29

-0.3

6-2

.54

-4.5

9-2

.62

-0.5

82.

464.

513.

07-6

.18

-5.8

91.

08-1

.96

0.91

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…16

1.8

163.

416

5.4

166.

816

8.0

169.

216

9.4

170.

817

2.0

173.

317

3.2

174.

817

2.4

174.

316

2.6

168.

417

2.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

5.19

3.93

5.07

3.26

3.07

2.73

0.63

3.27

2.76

3.06

-0.1

53.

75-5

.38

4.48

4.23

3.53

2.35

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

4.23

4.03

4.59

4.36

3.83

3.53

2.42

2.42

2.34

2.42

2.22

2.34

0.25

0.60

4.23

3.53

2.35

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)




Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

(thou

sand

s of

jobs

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

407.

641

0.1

410.

641

2.9

415.

641

6.5

419.

342

4.6

425.

342

8.1

429.

142

9.6

388.

640

5.2

408.

641

6.1

426.

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

252.

480.

522.

232.

670.

842.

725.

190.

662.

660.

970.

44-3

3.03

18.2

10.

861.

812.

58%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

760.

790.

981.

621.

971.

562.

112.

842.

332.

792.

351.

18-8

.62

-5.3

40.

861.

812.

58

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

430.

643

1.2

433.

243

4.3

435.

343

6.5

437.

543

9.7

440.

944

3.1

444.

144

8.2

419.

443

2.0

431.

043

5.9

441.

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

560.

531.

841.

080.

891.

140.

921.

961.

131.

980.

943.

71-2

3.28

12.5

71.

651.

141.

38%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

891.

231.

331.

251.

081.

241.

011.

231.

291.

501.

501.

93-4

.87

-2.4

91.

651.

141.

38

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…32

7.7

329.

633

2.2

333.

833

6.2

339.

334

1.2

344.

334

6.4

349.

635

5.5

355.

224

6.5

297.

932

8.9

337.

634

9.0

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.73

2.30

3.19

1.94

2.99

3.66

2.26

3.68

2.46

3.83

6.92

-0.4

1-7

6.80

113.

222.

942.

643.

36%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

002.

632.

782.

292.

602.

942.

713.

153.

013.

064.

213.

17-2

8.83

-14.

812.

942.

643.

36

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

114.

111

5.1

116.

111

6.9

117.

811

9.1

119.

812

0.6

121.

212

1.6

121.

512

1.1

106.

111

7.3

114.

611

8.4

121.

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…3.

463.

553.

642.

783.

124.

602.

262.

582.

231.

10-0

.33

-1.3

1-4

0.94

49.0

43.

263.

342.

36%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

173.

383.

543.

363.

273.

533.

193.

142.

912.

041.

390.

41-1

2.46

-3.5

43.

263.

342.

36

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…43

0.0

431.

043

1.0

433.

543

5.7

436.

943

7.8

437.

443

7.3

437.

843

8.4

438.

542

8.2

424.

343

0.3

436.

043

7.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

0.78

0.90

-0.0

32.

402.

011.

080.

89-0

.36

-0.0

90.

460.

520.

06-9

.01

-3.5

90.

561.

320.

41%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

920.

580.

231.

011.

321.

361.

590.

900.

370.

220.

130.

24-2

.08

-3.0

80.

561.

320.

41

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…49

.349

.148

.648

.848

.949

.149

.649

.650

.050

.450

.350

.350

.354

.049

.149

.150

.1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

.08

-1.6

1-3

.75

1.93

0.55

1.92

4.13

-0.2

72.

993.

79-0

.79

-0.5

30.

0032

.86

-0.3

70.

081.

95%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

20-0

.74

-1.6

9-1

.15

-0.7

40.

142.

131.

572.

182.

651.

411.

340.

607.

01-0

.37

0.08

1.95

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…38

0.8

381.

938

2.4

384.

738

6.8

387.

738

8.2

387.

838

7.4

387.

438

8.1

388.

237

8.0

370.

438

1.2

386.

938

7.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.02

1.23

0.45

2.46

2.20

0.97

0.48

-0.3

8-0

.48

0.03

0.69

0.14

-10.

13-7

.80

0.68

1.48

0.21

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.02

0.76

0.48

1.29

1.58

1.52

1.53

0.81

0.15

-0.0

9-0

.03

0.09

-2.4

3-4

.40

0.68

1.48

0.21

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel



Tabl

e 9:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

222.

822

1.6

221.

622

2.0

223.

522

4.7

226.

222

8.0

229.

022

8.1

224.

622

4.0

190.

620

4.3

222.

022

4.1

227.

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

1.10

-2.1

70.

130.

642.

802.

192.

703.

101.

84-1

.50

-6.1

4-1

.08

-47.

4831

.94

1.13

0.94

1.48

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…1.

500.

410.

15-0

.08

0.33

1.43

2.08

2.70

2.46

1.52

-0.7

4-1

.76

-16.

75-1

0.44

1.13

0.94

1.48

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

…12

.512

.512

.612

.612

.612

.512

.412

.512

.512

.612

.612

.512

.713

.212

.512

.512

.5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

-1.2

21.

332.

50-0

.23

0.75

-5.3

6-1

.29

2.10

1.67

2.37

-0.6

1-2

.11

5.83

16.5

03.

29-0

.14

0.20

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…3.

322.

912.

480.

581.

08-0

.63

-1.5

6-0

.99

-0.7

71.

201.

380.

321.

334.

653.

29-0

.14

0.20

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

S……

……

……

13.6

13.6

13.7

13.9

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.3

14.4

14.3

14.2

14.2

13.8

14.4

13.6

14.2

14.3

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…2.

870.

802.

515.

816.

494.

664.

55-5

.58

3.26

-2.8

2-1

.18

-0.9

2-9

.71

18.5

72.

314.

280.

52%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

2.75

1.71

2.79

2.98

3.88

4.86

5.37

2.42

1.63

-0.2

3-1

.63

-0.4

4-3

.72

1.18

2.31

4.28

0.52

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

….…

……

……

…10

.710

.710

.810

.811

.011

.111

.211

.311

.411

.311

.311

.211

.612

.110

.711

.011

.3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

0.11

0.40

2.50

1.89

4.36

5.70

4.24

4.25

0.89

-1.4

5-1

.11

-3.9

914

.72

18.9

40.

782.

792.

72%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

0.41

2.45

0.99

1.22

2.28

3.60

4.04

4.63

3.75

1.95

0.62

-1.4

31.

796.

690.

782.

792.

72

FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

S……

……

……

…...

35.6

35.4

35.7

35.9

36.3

36.9

37.4

38.0

38.1

38.0

37.9

37.4

37.0

38.3

35.5

36.6

38.0

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…0.

63-2

.26

3.52

2.18

4.74

6.85

4.99

6.67

1.64

-1.1

7-1

.35

-4.8

1-4

.06

14.6

5-0

.50

3.00

3.78

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…-0

.82

-0.9

00.

470.

992.

014.

314.

685.

815.

022.

991.

40-1

.45

-2.8

60.

81-0

.50

3.00

3.78

MAC

HIN

ERY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

25.3

25.3

25.3

25.3

25.7

25.9

26.4

26.9

26.6

26.5

26.2

26.0

25.4

26.6

25.3

25.8

26.6

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…1.

41-1

.38

0.18

0.60

5.99

4.32

7.27

8.36

-4.3

5-2

.01

-4.3

3-3

.43

-9.2

221

.06

-0.7

72.

192.

88%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-1.4

4-1

.74

-0.6

90.

201.

312.

744.

516.

473.

782.

17-0

.72

-3.5

4-4

.79

0.38

-0.7

72.

192.

88

CO

MPU

TER

S &

ELEC

TRO

NIC

S……

……

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.8

4.9

5.2

5.6

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…6.

12-1

.26

3.14

6.25

8.44

18.0

413

.42

13.8

32.

49-6

.07

-1.9

6-5

.92

7.58

13.1

51.

916.

987.

97%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

2.87

2.03

2.01

3.52

4.08

8.83

11.4

413

.38

11.7

95.

591.

81-2

.93

-1.7

42.

941.

916.

987.

97

ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

…19

.319

.119

.219

.018

.918

.618

.217

.817

.617

.517

.317

.517

.617

.819

.318

.717

.6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

-3.2

9-4

.00

2.51

-3.6

4-3

.18

-6.8

4-8

.37

-7.3

7-4

.15

-2.4

8-4

.19

4.41

1.72

5.79

-3.0

7-3

.15

-5.8

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

-3.4

0-3

.88

-2.3

7-2

.14

-2.1

1-2

.84

-5.5

3-6

.46

-6.6

9-5

.62

-4.5

6-1

.66

-0.1

91.

86-3

.07

-3.1

5-5

.85

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IPM

ENT…

……

75.2

74.5

73.3

73.4

73.8

74.2

74.7

75.4

76.4

75.8

72.9

73.1

40.6

48.6

74.5

74.0

75.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

…1.

48-3

.90

-6.2

00.

682.

262.

022.

913.

545.

66-3

.00

-14.

731.

04-9

0.51

105.

582.

68-0

.59

1.48

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

…4.

241.

40-1

.33

-2.0

4-1

.85

-0.3

71.

962.

683.

522.

23-2

.47

-3.0

6-4

6.94

-35.

982.

68-0

.59

1.48

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

……

……

…9.

69.

49.

59.

69.

69.

69.

69.

69.

69.

79.

89.

89.

610

.29.

59.

69.

7%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

0.25

-6.8

75.

221.

943.

32-0

.30

0.09

-0.0

20.

463.

584.

160.

28-8

.77

26.5

50.

891.

140.

97%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

1.93

-0.6

7-0

.18

0.03

0.79

2.52

1.25

0.76

0.06

1.02

2.03

2.10

-0.3

34.

790.

891.

140.

97

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

S……

……

…16

.116

.216

.616

.416

.416

.316

.416

.516

.616

.716

.716

.716

.817

.316

.216

.416

.6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

5.53

2.95

11.0

2-4

.31

-1.1

9-1

.30

1.27

3.10

2.17

3.59

0.10

0.00

1.30

13.1

63.

621.

241.

63%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

2.86

3.47

5.95

3.65

1.96

0.89

-1.4

00.

451.

302.

532.

231.

461.

243.

503.

621.

241.

63

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 10

: Te

nnes

see

Nond

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

…12

4.1

124.

712

4.6

125.

612

6.3

126.

912

6.7

126.

912

7.7

127.

712

8.4

129.

011

6.0

120.

012

4.2

126.

412

7.7

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…2.

011.

85-0

.23

3.22

2.16

2.14

-0.8

30.

792.

390.

042.

082.

03-3

4.52

14.2

51.

701.

731.

02%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.77

1.86

1.49

1.70

1.74

1.81

1.66

1.06

1.11

0.59

1.32

1.63

-9.1

1-6

.05

1.70

1.73

1.02

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…35

.235

.735

.835

.935

.835

.635

.435

.535

.936

.036

.136

.133

.533

.235

.435

.735

.9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

2.24

5.80

0.75

1.19

-0.5

0-2

.30

-2.1

80.

525.

210.

851.

310.

28-2

6.43

-3.3

93.

050.

760.

53%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.94

3.39

2.86

2.48

1.78

-0.2

2-0

.96

-1.1

20.

261.

061.

951.

89-6

.82

-7.8

23.

050.

760.

53

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

……

……

6.9

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.1

7.3

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.1

7.2

6.9

7.2

7.4

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…8.

668.

140.

478.

031.

323.

010.

55-6

.13

11.0

47.

959.

599.

90-3

1.13

6.35

5.58

4.24

2.53

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…5.

705.

805.

306.

274.

433.

173.

19-0

.37

1.93

3.13

5.38

9.62

-2.7

2-3

.09

5.58

4.24

2.53

PAPE

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

12.0

11.9

11.8

12.0

12.0

12.1

12.2

12.4

12.5

12.7

12.8

12.8

12.6

12.6

11.9

12.1

12.6

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…3.

17-4

.66

-3.7

88.

63-0

.24

4.36

2.60

5.08

3.02

8.49

3.61

-1.1

8-5

.73

-0.9

0-0

.35

1.61

4.13

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…0.

67-0

.06

-1.8

50.

70-0

.15

2.14

3.79

2.93

3.76

4.77

5.03

3.43

1.16

-1.1

1-0

.35

1.61

4.13

PRIN

TIN

G &

REL

ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.9

8.9

8.8

8.7

7.0

7.0

9.0

9.0

8.9

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.87

-2.6

4-4

.84

-0.2

24.

205.

57-1

.13

-5.1

41.

60-1

.25

-4.2

9-3

.27

-59.

620.

33-2

.27

-0.1

9-0

.73

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-2

.69

-2.2

3-2

.37

-2.9

1-0

.93

1.10

2.07

0.78

0.15

-1.5

1-2

.31

-1.8

3-2

2.05

-21.

74-2

.27

-0.1

9-0

.73

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

25.0

25.1

25.1

25.4

25.5

25.6

25.7

25.8

25.9

25.9

26.1

26.1

25.8

25.8

25.0

25.6

25.9

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…0.

181.

480.

814.

501.

282.

082.

191.

161.

950.

032.

031.

09-5

.04

0.66

-1.0

92.

101.

53%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-1.4

5-0

.77

-0.0

21.

732.

012.

162.

511.

681.

841.

331.

291.

27-0

.51

-0.3

6-1

.09

2.10

1.53

PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

24.5

24.4

24.4

24.5

24.8

25.1

25.0

25.1

25.0

24.7

24.5

24.4

19.7

21.7

24.3

24.8

24.8

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…6.

46-1

.56

-0.6

92.

514.

615.

50-2

.65

1.91

-1.3

7-4

.02

-2.8

6-2

.35

-57.

8649

.56

5.11

2.05

-0.0

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

6.46

4.79

3.26

1.63

1.18

2.95

2.44

2.29

0.80

-1.5

6-1

.61

-2.6

5-2

1.30

-12.

075.

112.

05-0

.03

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

11.5

11.7

11.7

11.8

12.1

12.2

12.1

12.2

12.1

11.9

12.3

13.0

10.4

12.4

11.6

12.0

12.1

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.88

4.99

2.37

2.68

8.82

3.64

-3.2

43.

06-1

.91

-5.7

914

.14

21.8

9-5

8.39

102.

400.

073.

350.

83%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-1.4

40.

071.

301.

494.

684.

352.

892.

980.

34-2

.02

2.11

6.48

-14.

074.

040.

073.

350.

83

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 11

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4659

146

304

4651

546

289

4722

246

691

4730

546

629

4792

347

547

4736

646

632

4795

348

622

4642

546

962

4736

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

511.

551.

130.

981.

350.

841.

700.

731.

481.

830.

130.

010.

062.

261.

041.

160.

86N

ATU

RAL

RES

OU

RC

ES, M

ININ

G A

ND

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

……

……

……

……

…55

796

5318

653

418

5597

355

469

5366

353

230

5343

157

257

5467

253

778

5400

657

262

5387

254

593

5394

854

928

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.83

2.33

3.11

1.49

-0.5

90.

90-0

.35

-4.5

43.

221.

881.

031.

080.

01-1

.46

2.17

-1.1

81.

82M

ANU

FAC

TUR

ING

……

……

……

……

……

…56

384

5628

156

165

5718

255

194

5514

955

340

5473

555

346

5491

754

589

5488

455

304

5734

056

503

5510

454

934

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.38

0.86

0.31

1.25

-2.1

1-2

.01

-1.4

7-4

.28

0.27

-0.4

2-1

.36

0.27

-0.0

74.

410.

70-2

.48

-0.3

1D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

5489

455

093

5518

556

085

5554

455

182

5596

955

211

5581

954

961

5491

255

646

5650

458

463

5531

455

476

5533

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-0

.38

1.02

0.74

1.78

1.19

0.16

1.42

-1.5

60.

49-0

.40

-1.8

90.

791.

236.

370.

790.

29-0

.26

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

5907

358

413

5790

559

131

5457

455

090

5422

853

885

5449

454

839

5401

253

552

5321

855

492

5863

054

444

5422

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

690.

57-0

.47

0.31

-7.6

2-5

.69

-6.3

5-8

.87

-0.1

5-0

.46

-0.4

0-0

.62

-2.3

41.

190.

52-7

.14

-0.4

0TR

ADE,

TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

, UTI

LITI

ES…

…43

231

4312

743

133

4256

443

579

4336

043

829

4241

744

295

4418

643

184

4183

043

200

4247

843

014

4329

643

374

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.01

0.95

-0.5

60.

970.

800.

541.

61-0

.34

1.65

1.91

-1.4

7-1

.38

-2.4

7-3

.87

0.59

0.66

0.18

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

6944

368

469

6840

669

394

6831

967

669

6748

166

130

6897

268

775

6785

266

162

6955

069

905

6892

867

400

6794

0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

850.

61-5

.29

0.23

-1.6

2-1

.17

-1.3

5-4

.70

0.96

1.63

0.55

0.05

0.84

1.64

-0.7

1-2

.22

0.80

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

2943

529

288

2913

528

943

2959

629

615

3042

428

979

3019

029

843

2939

927

992

2881

128

012

2920

029

654

2935

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

810.

540.

741.

070.

551.

124.

430.

122.

000.

77-3

.37

-3.4

1-4

.57

-6.1

30.

791.

55-1

.00

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…52

539

5316

053

311

5125

453

989

5363

753

418

5196

354

013

5418

051

870

5131

052

236

5081

852

566

5325

252

843

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.70

1.48

2.29

1.09

2.76

0.90

0.20

1.38

0.04

1.01

-2.9

0-1

.26

-3.2

9-6

.21

1.39

1.30

-0.7

7IN

FOR

MAT

ION

……

……

……

……

……

……

…67

495

6053

062

388

6465

068

684

6944

767

582

6542

367

687

6703

169

480

6871

168

336

6943

263

766

6778

468

227

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

12.3

51.

01-0

.05

4.79

1.76

14.7

38.

331.

20-1

.45

-3.4

82.

815.

030.

963.

584.

496.

300.

65FI

NAN

CIA

L AC

TIVI

TIES

……

……

……

……

…65

008

6469

365

432

6600

466

335

6561

170

572

6815

269

968

6899

167

476

6886

070

505

7330

665

284

6766

768

824

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-3.0

9-1

.82

0.07

0.48

2.04

1.42

7.86

3.25

5.48

5.15

-4.3

91.

040.

776.

25-1

.10

3.65

1.71

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

5377

153

020

5332

452

443

5740

054

631

5538

155

728

5812

957

614

5776

756

777

5858

361

245

5313

955

785

5757

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-0

.58

1.84

2.94

0.42

6.75

3.04

3.86

6.26

1.27

5.46

4.31

1.88

0.78

6.30

1.14

4.98

3.20

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4716

147

681

4744

246

721

4704

947

589

4695

247

545

4755

647

840

4763

846

962

4787

748

100

4725

147

284

4749

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

632.

950.

76-0

.06

-0.2

4-0

.19

-1.0

31.

761.

080.

531.

46-1

.23

0.68

0.54

1.07

0.07

0.46

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

2458

323

179

2340

124

127

2504

323

696

2436

525

031

2524

624

179

2405

823

847

2545

620

989

2382

324

534

2433

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

382.

613.

912.

041.

872.

234.

123.

750.

812.

04-1

.26

-4.7

30.

83-1

3.19

2.98

2.99

-0.8

2O

THER

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

4171

541

452

4174

041

697

4176

641

187

4192

841

892

4245

841

622

4113

742

830

4424

844

155

4165

141

693

4201

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.47

0.67

1.21

0.37

0.12

-0.6

40.

450.

471.

661.

05-1

.89

2.24

4.22

6.09

-0.0

80.

100.

76G

OVE

RN

MEN

T……

……

……

……

……

……

…42

094

4391

644

585

4247

642

751

4404

645

158

4228

243

202

4418

345

501

4287

243

757

4407

443

268

4355

943

940

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.48

2.85

1.79

1.65

1.56

0.30

1.28

-0.4

61.

060.

310.

761.

401.

29-0

.25

1.70

0.67

0.87

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…74

472

7473

775

085

7524

976

013

7616

576

131

7557

675

391

7476

374

221

7415

274

856

7560

774

886

7597

174

632

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-1.2

9-0

.30

0.66

1.33

2.07

1.91

1.39

0.43

-0.8

2-1

.84

-2.5

1-1

.88

-0.7

11.

130.

091.

45-1

.76

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

3794

539

882

4053

638

429

3859

139

942

4108

738

143

3914

740

197

4162

238

921

3980

939

835

3919

839

441

3997

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

903.

742.

221.

951.

700.

151.

36-0

.74

1.44

0.64

1.30

2.04

1.69

-0.9

02.

210.

621.

35

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

aAn

nual

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…46

167

4628

146

411

4683

346

805

4665

947

200

4716

847

511

4751

647

261

4710

747

644

4859

446

423

4695

847

349

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-1.4

80.

991.

133.

68-0

.24

-1.2

44.

72-0

.27

2.94

0.05

-2.1

3-1

.30

4.63

8.23

1.04

1.15

0.83

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.48

1.48

1.15

1.06

1.38

0.82

1.70

0.72

1.51

1.84

0.13

-0.1

30.

282.

271.

041.

150.

83

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…54

034

5352

954

275

5619

653

820

5405

454

187

5355

355

571

5524

154

737

5422

156

232

5389

954

508

5390

354

943

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-9.4

6-3

.69

5.69

14.9

3-1

5.87

1.75

0.99

-4.6

015

.95

-2.3

5-3

.60

-3.7

215

.68

-15.

592.

17-1

.11

1.93

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.96

2.27

3.04

1.45

-0.4

00.

98-0

.16

-4.7

03.

252.

201.

021.

251.

19-2

.43

2.17

-1.1

11.

93

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…56

278

5625

756

231

5725

455

098

5508

855

418

5482

155

263

5481

254

686

5498

155

218

5726

056

505

5510

654

935

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-1.8

3-0

.15

-0.1

97.

48-1

4.24

-0.0

72.

42-4

.24

3.27

-3.2

3-0

.91

2.17

1.74

15.6

30.

70-2

.48

-0.3

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

410.

800.

331.

27-2

.10

-2.0

8-1

.44

-4.2

50.

30-0

.50

-1.3

20.

29-0

.08

4.47

0.70

-2.4

8-0

.31

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

5483

855

076

5521

356

139

5549

255

121

5602

855

276

5577

854

847

5499

855

722

5645

758

398

5531

755

479

5533

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-2

.25

1.75

1.00

6.87

-4.5

3-2

.65

6.75

-5.2

63.

68-6

.51

1.11

5.37

5.38

14.4

70.

800.

29-0

.26

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.3

40.

950.

791.

791.

190.

081.

48-1

.54

0.52

-0.5

0-1

.84

0.81

1.22

6.47

0.80

0.29

-0.2

6

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…58

869

5837

758

039

5923

954

401

5503

054

339

5400

854

339

5474

854

129

5368

453

068

5539

258

631

5444

454

225

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-1.1

5-3

.30

-2.3

08.

53-2

8.88

4.70

-4.9

3-2

.41

2.48

3.04

-4.4

5-3

.25

-4.5

118

.70

0.52

-7.1

4-0

.40

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.74

0.52

-0.4

80.

34-7

.59

-5.7

3-6

.37

-8.8

3-0

.11

-0.5

1-0

.39

-0.6

0-2

.34

1.18

0.52

-7.1

4-0

.40

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4277

642

904

4302

543

381

4313

243

133

4368

943

232

4384

843

929

4304

042

464

4284

542

368

4302

143

296

4332

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-0

.97

1.20

1.13

3.35

-2.2

80.

015.

26-4

.12

5.82

0.75

-7.8

5-5

.24

3.63

-4.3

80.

630.

640.

06%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

090.

84-0

.57

1.17

0.83

0.53

1.54

-0.3

41.

661.

85-1

.49

-1.7

8-2

.29

-3.5

50.

630.

640.

06

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…69

148

6850

768

503

6960

968

070

6772

667

575

6629

568

743

6879

467

927

6645

369

225

6978

468

942

6741

767

979

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-1.0

5-3

.66

-0.0

26.

62-8

.56

-2.0

0-0

.89

-7.3

715

.61

0.30

-4.9

5-8

.40

17.7

63.

27-0

.68

-2.2

10.

83%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

850.

58-5

.29

0.40

-1.5

6-1

.14

-1.3

5-4

.76

0.99

1.58

0.52

0.24

0.70

1.44

-0.6

8-2

.21

0.83

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

2908

529

175

2901

629

566

2925

129

504

3027

629

601

2983

929

727

2925

228

452

2851

427

972

2921

129

658

2931

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

.45

1.24

-2.1

67.

80-4

.19

3.50

10.8

9-8

.62

3.26

-1.5

0-6

.23

-10.

500.

87-7

.39

0.86

1.53

-1.1

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

010.

430.

721.

280.

571.

134.

340.

122.

010.

76-3

.38

-3.8

8-4

.44

-5.9

00.

861.

53-1

.15

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…51

898

5252

653

194

5258

353

337

5297

153

252

5332

953

370

5345

651

700

5232

951

886

5055

452

550

5322

252

714

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-0.1

64.

935.

19-4

.51

5.86

-2.7

22.

140.

580.

310.

64-1

2.50

4.96

-3.3

4-9

.88

1.37

1.28

-0.9

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

611.

292.

311.

282.

770.

850.

111.

420.

060.

92-2

.91

-1.8

8-2

.78

-5.4

31.

371.

28-0

.96

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…66

956

6119

162

206

6506

868

034

7020

967

330

6586

667

029

6732

769

227

6910

767

840

6981

363

855

6786

068

172

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

37.1

4-3

0.24

6.80

19.7

119

.52

13.4

1-1

5.42

-8.4

27.

251.

7911

.78

-0.6

9-7

.13

12.1

54.

546.

270.

46%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…12

.20

1.00

0.02

5.17

1.61

14.7

48.

241.

23-1

.48

-4.1

02.

824.

921.

213.

694.

546.

270.

46

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…64

601

6474

665

739

6611

065

937

6567

670

850

6823

269

545

6899

167

736

6883

470

236

7336

365

299

6767

468

776

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-6.9

40.

906.

272.

28-1

.04

-1.5

835

.44

-13.

987.

92-3

.15

-7.0

86.

648.

4019

.03

-1.1

03.

641.

63%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-3

.13

-1.8

70.

110.

512.

071.

447.

773.

215.

475.

05-4

.40

0.88

0.99

6.34

-1.1

03.

641.

63

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)

Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (2

012

dolla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

5287

552

829

5326

353

521

5646

954

421

5541

756

818

5723

957

452

5780

857

664

5783

860

988

5312

255

781

5754

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-2

.90

-0.3

53.

331.

9423

.92

-13.

737.

5210

.50

3.00

1.49

2.50

-0.9

91.

2123

.63

1.13

5.01

3.15

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.6

01.

723.

000.

486.

803.

014.

046.

161.

365.

574.

311.

491.

056.

161.

135.

013.

15

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4715

747

493

4714

847

138

4705

247

396

4669

047

966

4757

147

699

4737

647

466

4786

047

970

4723

447

276

4752

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…0.

072.

88-2

.87

-0.0

8-0

.73

2.95

-5.8

211

.38

-3.2

51.

09-2

.68

0.76

3.36

0.93

1.06

0.09

0.53

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.62

2.90

0.76

-0.0

2-0

.22

-0.2

0-0

.97

1.75

1.10

0.64

1.47

-1.0

40.

610.

571.

060.

090.

53

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…23

674

2369

323

917

2394

524

143

2420

124

906

2484

824

366

2466

324

576

2370

824

711

2150

623

807

2452

424

328

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

4.11

0.32

3.84

0.47

3.34

0.97

12.1

6-0

.93

-7.5

34.

97-1

.40

-13.

3918

.02

-42.

632.

973.

01-0

.80

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.37

2.47

3.89

2.17

1.98

2.15

4.13

3.77

0.92

1.91

-1.3

2-4

.58

1.42

-12.

802.

973.

01-0

.80

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

4128

541

779

4195

741

577

4133

741

502

4213

941

787

4200

041

931

4135

142

772

4379

744

558

4165

041

691

4201

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

.07

4.88

1.72

-3.5

7-2

.29

1.60

6.28

-3.3

02.

05-0

.66

-5.4

214

.47

9.94

7.13

-0.0

80.

100.

77%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-2

.56

0.62

1.25

0.44

0.13

-0.6

60.

430.

511.

601.

03-1

.87

2.36

4.28

6.26

-0.0

80.

100.

77

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…42

604

4344

643

244

4372

543

264

4356

543

693

4352

843

725

4371

844

012

4400

644

383

4363

243

255

4351

243

865

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-3.2

38.

15-1

.85

4.52

-4.1

52.

811.

19-1

.51

1.83

-0.0

72.

71-0

.05

3.47

-6.6

01.

680.

600.

81%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

292.

861.

791.

791.

550.

271.

04-0

.45

1.07

0.35

0.73

1.10

1.50

-0.2

01.

680.

600.

81

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…74

372

7468

774

983

7550

775

909

7606

176

079

7588

075

290

7466

374

172

7434

874

608

7555

674

887

7598

274

618

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

0.33

1.70

1.60

2.82

2.15

0.81

0.09

-1.0

4-3

.07

-3.2

9-2

.61

0.95

1.41

5.18

0.15

1.46

-1.8

0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

.42

-0.3

00.

721.

612.

071.

841.

460.

49-0

.82

-1.8

4-2

.51

-2.0

2-0

.91

1.20

0.15

1.46

-1.8

0

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…38

471

3940

439

166

3968

539

120

3945

639

589

3939

139

689

3972

740

085

4007

140

469

3938

639

182

3938

939

893

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-4.1

510

.05

-2.3

95.

40-5

.58

3.49

1.36

-1.9

93.

060.

383.

66-0

.15

4.04

-10.

292.

180.

531.

28%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

703.

762.

222.

071.

680.

131.

08-0

.74

1.45

0.69

1.25

1.73

1.97

-0.8

62.

180.

531.

28

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel



Tabl

e 13

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4911

648

922

4934

549

425

5075

650

464

5132

750

774

5225

652

172

5215

451

542

5317

153

696

4920

250

830

5203

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

553.

222.

802.

833.

343.

154.

022.

732.

953.

381.

611.

511.

752.

922.

853.

312.

36N

ATU

RAL

RES

OU

RC

ES, M

ININ

G A

ND

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

……

……

……

……

…58

821

5619

356

668

5976

559

621

5799

957

755

5818

062

434

5998

959

214

5969

363

494

5949

357

862

5838

960

332

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.89

4.01

4.81

3.36

1.36

3.21

1.92

-2.6

54.

723.

432.

522.

601.

70-0

.83

4.01

0.91

3.33

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

5944

159

463

5958

261

056

5932

559

605

6004

559

600

6035

060

258

6010

760

662

6132

363

323

5988

559

644

6034

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

412.

521.

963.

11-0

.19

0.24

0.78

-2.3

81.

731.

100.

101.

781.

615.

092.

50-0

.40

1.17

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

…57

869

5820

858

542

5988

559

702

5964

160

727

6011

960

866

6030

660

463

6150

562

652

6456

458

626

6004

760

785

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.64

2.69

2.40

3.65

3.17

2.46

3.73

0.39

1.95

1.12

-0.4

32.

312.

947.

062.

602.

421.

23N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

…62

275

6171

561

428

6313

758

659

5954

258

838

5867

559

422

6017

359

472

5919

059

009

6128

262

139

5892

859

564

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.76

2.22

1.17

2.15

-5.8

1-3

.52

-4.2

2-7

.07

1.30

1.06

1.08

0.88

-0.6

91.

842.

32-5

.17

1.08

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4557

545

566

4575

845

447

4684

046

863

4755

546

188

4830

148

484

4754

946

234

4790

146

911

4558

646

862

4764

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

062.

611.

082.

822.

782.

853.

931.

633.

123.

46-0

.01

0.10

-0.8

3-3

.24

2.38

2.80

1.67

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

7320

772

340

7256

874

096

7343

373

138

7321

872

008

7520

975

464

7471

073

128

7711

877

200

7305

372

949

7462

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

912.

27-3

.73

2.08

0.31

1.10

0.90

-2.8

22.

423.

182.

041.

562.

542.

301.

06-0

.14

2.30

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

3103

130

944

3090

730

904

3181

232

008

3301

131

555

3291

932

745

3237

130

939

3194

630

935

3094

732

096

3224

4%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

862.

192.

392.

932.

523.

446.

812.

103.

482.

30-1

.94

-1.9

5-2

.96

-5.5

32.

593.

710.

46TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

5538

756

166

5655

454

727

5803

057

971

5795

956

582

5889

659

450

5711

356

712

5792

156

121

5570

957

635

5804

3%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

753.

153.

972.

954.

773.

212.

483.

391.

492.

55-1

.46

0.23

-1.6

6-5

.60

3.21

3.46

0.71

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

7115

463

952

6618

369

030

7382

675

060

7332

771

239

7380

773

551

7650

375

946

7577

376

678

6758

073

363

7495

2%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…14

.63

2.67

1.59

6.72

3.75

17.3

710

.79

3.20

-0.0

3-2

.01

4.33

6.61

2.66

4.25

6.35

8.56

2.17

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

6853

268

351

6941

370

475

7130

070

913

7657

174

210

7629

575

702

7429

776

110

7817

780

956

6919

373

249

7560

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…-1

.13

-0.2

01.

722.

334.

043.

7510

.31

5.30

7.01

6.75

-2.9

72.

562.

476.

940.

675.

863.

21PR

OFE

SSIO

NAL

& B

USI

NES

S SE

RVI

CES

…56

685

5601

756

568

5599

661

696

5904

660

089

6068

263

385

6321

863

606

6275

664

958

6763

656

317

6037

863

241

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.44

3.51

4.64

2.27

8.84

5.41

6.22

8.37

2.74

7.06

5.85

3.42

2.48

6.99

2.95

7.21

4.74

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4971

750

377

5032

849

887

5057

051

435

5094

451

772

5185

652

493

5245

351

906

5308

753

119

5007

751

180

5217

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

684.

642.

421.

781.

722.

101.

223.

782.

542.

062.

960.

262.

371.

192.

872.

201.

95LE

ISU

RE

& H

OSP

ITAL

ITY…

……

……

……

…25

916

2448

924

825

2576

126

918

2561

126

436

2725

627

529

2653

126

489

2635

828

227

2317

925

248

2655

526

727

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

5.48

4.30

5.63

3.92

3.87

4.58

6.49

5.80

2.27

3.59

0.20

-3.3

02.

53-1

2.63

4.83

5.18

0.65

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

…43

976

4379

644

279

4452

244

892

4451

645

492

4561

646

297

4567

045

295

4734

049

063

4876

344

143

4512

946

150

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.4

92.

332.

872.

212.

081.

642.

742.

463.

132.

59-0

.43

3.78

5.97

6.77

1.72

2.23

2.26

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4437

546

399

4729

845

354

4595

147

606

4899

746

040

4710

848

480

5010

147

386

4851

948

673

4585

747

148

4826

9%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

524.

543.

463.

523.

552.

603.

591.

512.

521.

842.

252.

922.

990.

403.

522.

822.

38FE

DER

AL, C

IVIL

IAN

……

……

……

……

……

7850

978

963

7965

380

347

8170

282

320

8260

382

293

8220

882

035

8172

381

959

8300

283

496

7936

882

230

8198

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

711.

342.

313.

194.

074.

253.

702.

420.

62-0

.35

-1.0

6-0

.41

0.97

1.78

1.89

3.61

-0.3

0ST

ATE

& LO

CAL

……

……

……

……

……

…40

002

4213

743

002

4103

241

480

4316

944

580

4153

442

687

4410

745

829

4301

944

141

4399

241

543

4269

143

910

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.95

5.45

3.90

3.83

3.69

2.45

3.67

1.22

2.91

2.17

2.80

3.57

3.41

-0.2

64.

042.

762.

86

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

aAn

nual

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)



Tabl

e 14

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4867

048

897

4923

550

006

5030

850

429

5121

251

361

5180

752

138

5203

952

067

5282

853

665

4920

250

828

5201

2%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…0.

691.

882.

796.

412.

440.

976.

351.

173.

522.

58-0

.76

0.22

5.97

6.49

2.85

3.30

2.33

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.52

3.15

2.82

2.92

3.37

3.13

4.02

2.71

2.98

3.39

1.61

1.38

1.97

2.93

2.85

3.30

2.33

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…56

963

5655

557

577

6000

357

848

5842

258

793

5831

360

596

6061

460

270

5993

062

351

5952

357

775

5834

460

353

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-7.4

6-2

.83

7.42

17.9

5-1

3.61

4.03

2.57

-3.2

316

.60

0.12

-2.2

5-2

.24

17.1

6-1

6.94

4.00

0.99

3.44

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

4.03

3.95

4.73

3.31

1.55

3.30

2.11

-2.8

24.

753.

752.

512.

772.

90-1

.80

4.00

0.99

3.44

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…59

329

5943

859

652

6113

359

222

5954

060

130

5969

460

260

6014

360

214

6077

061

227

6323

559

888

5964

660

347

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

0.34

0.74

1.45

10.3

1-1

1.93

2.16

4.02

-2.8

73.

85-0

.78

0.47

3.74

3.05

13.7

82.

51-0

.40

1.17

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.45

2.45

1.98

3.13

-0.1

80.

170.

80-2

.35

1.75

1.01

0.14

1.80

1.60

5.14

2.51

-0.4

01.

17

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

5781

158

190

5857

359

942

5964

559

575

6079

160

190

6082

160

181

6055

761

589

6260

164

492

5862

960

050

6078

7%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-0

.09

2.65

2.66

9.69

-1.9

7-0

.47

8.42

-3.9

04.

26-4

.14

2.52

6.99

6.74

12.6

42.

602.

421.

23%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…1.

682.

612.

443.

663.

172.

383.

790.

411.

971.

02-0

.38

2.33

2.93

7.16

2.60

2.42

1.23

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…62

060

6167

861

570

6325

258

473

5947

758

958

5880

859

253

6007

359

600

5933

658

842

6117

262

140

5892

959

565

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.04

-2.4

4-0

.70

11.3

9-2

6.96

7.05

-3.4

5-1

.01

3.06

5.65

-3.1

1-1

.76

-3.2

916

.80

2.32

-5.1

71.

08%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

802.

171.

162.

18-5

.78

-3.5

7-4

.24

-7.0

31.

331.

001.

090.

90-0

.69

1.83

2.32

-5.1

71.

08

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

4509

545

330

4564

246

320

4636

046

619

4740

347

075

4781

248

202

4739

146

936

4750

746

789

4559

746

864

4758

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

212.

102.

786.

070.

352.

256.

90-2

.74

6.41

3.30

-6.5

6-3

.79

4.96

-5.9

12.

432.

781.

54%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

142.

491.

073.

032.

812.

843.

861.

633.

133.

40-0

.03

-0.3

0-0

.64

-2.9

32.

432.

781.

54

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…72

897

7238

172

671

7432

573

165

7319

973

320

7218

874

959

7548

574

793

7345

076

758

7706

673

068

7296

874

672

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

1.13

-2.8

01.

619.

42-6

.10

0.19

0.66

-6.0

316

.26

2.84

-3.6

2-6

.99

19.2

71.

621.

09-0

.14

2.33

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

3.92

2.24

-3.7

32.

250.

371.

130.

89-2

.88

2.45

3.12

2.01

1.75

2.40

2.09

1.09

-0.1

42.

33

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

3066

230

824

3078

131

569

3144

031

888

3285

032

233

3253

832

618

3220

931

448

3161

730

891

3095

932

103

3220

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…0.

732.

14-0

.56

10.6

3-1

.62

5.82

12.6

2-7

.31

3.84

0.99

-4.9

2-9

.12

2.17

-8.8

72.

673.

690.

31%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…3.

062.

082.

373.

152.

543.

456.

722.

103.

492.

29-1

.95

-2.4

3-2

.83

-5.2

92.

673.

690.

31

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…54

711

5549

556

430

5614

557

329

5725

157

779

5807

058

196

5865

556

926

5783

957

532

5582

955

695

5760

757

904

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

2.05

5.86

6.91

-2.0

08.

71-0

.54

3.74

2.03

0.87

3.19

-11.

286.

57-2

.10

-11.

333.

193.

430.

51%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

652.

963.

993.

144.

793.

162.

393.

431.

512.

45-1

.48

-0.4

0-1

.14

-4.8

23.

193.

430.

51

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…70

585

6465

165

991

6947

673

126

7588

373

054

7172

173

089

7387

576

225

7638

375

223

7709

867

676

7344

674

893

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

40.1

7-2

9.62

8.55

22.8

622

.73

15.9

5-1

4.10

-7.1

07.

854.

3713

.34

0.83

-5.9

410

.35

6.40

8.53

1.97

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

14.4

72.

661.

677.

103.

6017

.37

10.7

03.

23-0

.05

-2.6

54.

346.

502.

924.

366.

408.

531.

97

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…68

103

6840

769

739

7058

970

873

7098

376

873

7429

875

833

7570

274

582

7608

177

879

8101

869

210

7325

775

550

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-4.8

81.

808.

024.

971.

620.

6237

.56

-12.

748.

53-0

.69

-5.7

88.

289.

7917

.13

0.68

5.85

3.13

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-1.1

7-0

.25

1.76

2.36

4.07

3.77

10.2

35.

257.

006.

65-2

.98

2.40

2.70

7.02

0.68

5.85

3.13

(CO

NTI

NU

ED O

N N

EXT

PAG

E)

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)



Tabl

e 14

: Te

nnes

see

Aver

age

Annu

al W

age

and

Sala

ry R

ate

by S

ecto

r, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d (c

urre

nt d

olla

rs)

2017

:120

17:2

2017

:320

17:4

2018

:120

18:2

2018

:320

18:4

2019

:120

19:2

2019

:320

19:4

2020

:120

20:2

2017

2018

2019

Dece

mbe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

5574

155

816

5650

457

147

6069

558

819

6012

861

868

6241

563

039

6365

163

735

6413

267

352

5630

260

378

6321

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-0

.75

0.53

5.02

4.63

27.2

5-1

1.80

9.20

12.0

93.

584.

063.

940.

532.

5121

.65

2.94

7.24

4.69

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.41

3.39

4.69

2.33

8.89

5.38

6.41

8.26

2.83

7.18

5.86

3.02

2.75

6.84

2.94

7.24

4.69

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4971

350

178

5001

750

332

5057

451

226

5066

052

229

5187

252

339

5216

552

464

5306

852

976

5006

051

172

5221

0%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…2.

283.

79-1

.28

2.54

1.94

5.25

-4.3

512

.98

-2.7

13.

65-1

.32

2.31

4.69

-0.6

92.

862.

222.

03%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

664.

592.

421.

821.

732.

091.

293.

772.

572.

172.

970.

452.

311.

222.

862.

222.

03

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…24

957

2503

225

372

2556

725

950

2615

727

023

2705

626

569

2706

227

060

2620

527

400

2375

025

232

2654

626

724

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

6.41

1.21

5.54

3.11

6.12

3.23

13.9

20.

50-7

.01

7.63

-0.0

2-1

2.06

19.5

3-4

3.55

4.81

5.21

0.67

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

5.46

4.16

5.60

4.05

3.98

4.49

6.50

5.82

2.39

3.46

0.14

-3.1

53.

13-1

2.24

4.81

5.21

0.67

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

4352

344

141

4451

044

394

4443

244

856

4572

145

502

4579

846

009

4553

147

275

4856

349

207

4414

245

127

4615

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…1.

115.

813.

38-1

.04

0.34

3.87

7.94

-1.9

12.

631.

86-4

.09

16.2

311

.35

5.41

1.72

2.23

2.27

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-0.5

82.

272.

922.

282.

091.

622.

722.

493.

072.

57-0

.42

3.90

6.04

6.95

1.72

2.23

2.27

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

4491

345

903

4587

546

687

4650

247

085

4740

847

397

4767

947

970

4846

148

639

4921

348

185

4584

447

098

4818

7%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

…-1

.09

9.11

-0.2

47.

27-1

.58

5.11

2.77

-0.0

92.

402.

474.

151.

484.

80-8

.10

3.50

2.73

2.31

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.32

4.55

3.47

3.67

3.54

2.58

3.34

1.52

2.53

1.88

2.22

2.62

3.22

0.45

3.50

2.73

2.31

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…78

403

7890

979

545

8062

381

591

8220

882

547

8262

582

098

8192

581

669

8217

682

727

8344

179

370

8224

381

967

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

2.55

2.61

3.26

5.53

4.89

3.06

1.66

0.38

-2.5

3-0

.84

-1.2

42.

512.

713.

501.

953.

62-0

.34

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.58

1.34

2.38

3.48

4.07

4.18

3.77

2.48

0.62

-0.3

4-1

.06

-0.5

40.

771.

851.

953.

62-0

.34

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…40

557

4163

241

549

4237

442

048

4264

542

955

4289

343

277

4359

044

137

4429

044

873

4349

641

528

4263

543

824

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

-2.0

311

.03

-0.7

98.

17-3

.04

5.80

2.94

-0.5

83.

642.

935.

111.

395.

37-1

1.72

4.01

2.67

2.79

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

2.74

5.46

3.90

3.94

3.68

2.43

3.38

1.22

2.92

2.22

2.75

3.26

3.69

-0.2

24.

012.

672.

79

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el



Tabl

e 15

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate,

Not

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

……

3182

3205

3198

3221

3255

3261

3280

3313

3344

3356

3366

3356

3239

3290

3185

3254

3345

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.93

1.98

1.79

2.07

2.28

1.73

2.58

2.88

2.73

2.92

2.61

1.27

-3.1

5-1

.96

1.98

2.17

2.78

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…30

6930

8730

9231

0031

4331

4131

7531

9432

3332

3932

6032

3428

5330

1730

6531

4032

32%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

963.

413.

072.

902.

421.

742.

683.

032.

873.

112.

671.

26-1

1.76

-6.8

43.

002.

432.

92

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

114

118

106

121

112

120

105

119

111

117

106

121

386

273

120

114

113

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-19.

74-2

5.17

-25.

32-1

5.37

-1.4

21.

49-0

.54

-1.0

6-1

.14

-1.9

80.

781.

6124

8.18

132.

89-1

8.49

-4.6

6-0

.90

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

…59

.359

.559

.259

.560

.059

.960

.160

.661

.161

.161

.260

.958

.659

.459

.259

.961

.0%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…0.

770.

810.

620.

931.

160.

651.

531.

941.

842.

061.

760.

42-3

.96

-2.7

80.

821.

071.

90

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.7

3.4

3.7

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.6

11.9

8.3

3.8

3.5

3.4

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 16

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate,

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…31

7431

9632

1132

2532

4432

6032

8833

1733

3533

5533

6733

6932

2732

9131

8532

5433

43%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…1.

762.

871.

901.

742.

362.

033.

433.

552.

232.

381.

510.

27-1

5.89

8.15

1.98

2.17

2.74

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

1.99

1.87

1.85

2.06

2.21

2.00

2.39

2.84

2.81

2.89

2.41

1.59

-3.2

5-1

.91

1.98

2.17

2.74

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…30

5430

8530

9931

1031

2831

4631

7632

0332

2032

4232

5632

5628

3730

2230

6531

4032

30%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…4.

154.

091.

861.

372.

312.

393.

853.

472.

102.

781.

690.

10-4

2.38

28.6

53.

012.

432.

88%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

…2.

963.

253.

172.

862.

401.

982.

483.

002.

953.

052.

511.

66-1

1.88

-6.8

03.

012.

432.

88

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

…12

011

111

211

511

611

411

211

411

511

311

211

339

026

912

011

511

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

……

……

…-4

1.34

-24.

862.

8112

.13

3.80

-7.4

7-7

.65

5.87

5.88

-8.4

8-3

.78

5.09

1402

4.51

-77.

28-1

8.80

-4.5

2-1

.08

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

-17.

92-2

5.74

-24.

78-1

5.57

-2.6

22.

58-0

.14

-1.5

6-1

.07

-1.3

4-0

.33

-0.5

123

8.12

138.

68-1

8.80

-4.5

2-1

.08

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

59.1

59.4

59.5

59.6

59.7

59.9

60.3

60.7

60.9

61.1

61.2

61.1

58.4

59.4

59.2

59.9

61.0

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

……

……

……

0.62

1.73

0.79

0.54

1.32

1.04

2.49

2.78

1.36

1.51

0.65

-0.5

8-1

6.59

7.26

0.82

1.07

1.85

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

0.82

0.70

0.69

0.92

1.09

0.92

1.34

1.90

1.91

2.03

1.57

0.73

-4.0

6-2

.73

0.82

1.07

1.85

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

…3.

83.

53.

53.

63.

63.

53.

43.

43.

53.

43.

33.

412

.18.

23.

83.

53.

4

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted



Tabl

e 17

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

2966

429

749

3242

428

352

3095

930

689

3363

629

210

3225

832

161

3547

129

136

3145

333

036

1183

2412

3635

1291

00%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.78

4.65

5.13

7.04

4.37

3.16

3.74

3.02

4.20

4.80

5.46

-0.2

5-2

.50

2.72

3.07

4.49

4.42

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…31

1531

3629

6630

3031

3431

4430

1630

0332

1933

2531

3028

8432

4933

8812

152

1232

312

676

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

18-1

.36

0.01

3.25

0.59

0.25

1.69

-0.8

82.

725.

753.

77-3

.98

0.95

1.89

0.26

1.41

2.86

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1234

1240

1611

1111

1338

1324

1733

1226

1398

1366

1905

1318

1366

1481

5179

5505

5895

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…0.

130.

484.

901.

538.

376.

797.

5810

.32

4.54

3.17

9.93

7.53

-2.3

08.

483.

316.

307.

07

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…51

7350

0854

9045

8954

9952

9855

5647

7855

9355

1560

0448

7760

9960

8620

166

2094

221

890

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…2.

364.

077.

302.

076.

315.

801.

214.

121.

714.

108.

062.

089.

0510

.35

4.23

3.85

4.53

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

3200

3097

3016

2960

3238

3154

3300

3249

3543

3499

3463

2860

2691

3106

1219

212

652

1375

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.15

0.80

-0.4

22.

811.

211.

859.

409.

749.

4210

.94

4.95

-11.

97-2

4.07

-11.

230.

653.

778.

71

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

2754

2935

3183

2832

2893

2935

3152

2812

2951

2986

3280

3076

3319

3241

1144

711

813

1202

8%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.52

6.58

5.21

9.95

5.06

0.01

-0.9

5-0

.73

2.00

1.73

4.04

9.41

12.4

78.

553.

503.

191.

82

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…21

720

924

519

622

021

826

821

523

323

627

823

929

829

385

790

196

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-10.

11-1

.74

-3.0

64.

351.

474.

409.

449.

865.

888.

263.

8811

.19

28.2

524

.17

-8.1

25.

096.

73

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…94

695

285

467

796

192

898

889

411

6911

5810

6973

041

071

034

1535

5442

89%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

0.21

-1.6

30.

402.

101.

61-2

.52

15.7

432

.00

21.5

524

.72

8.20

-18.

30-6

4.89

-38.

67-1

.39

4.08

20.6

6

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…87

6288

6410

307

8754

9297

9328

1078

489

0597

8296

5211

407

9384

1017

210

591

3593

638

163

3974

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.23

5.02

4.97

9.39

6.11

5.23

4.62

1.73

5.22

3.47

5.78

5.37

3.98

9.74

2.39

6.20

4.15

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2401

2263

2639

2194

2352

2307

2778

2190

2427

2390

2828

2025

2082

2377

9330

9630

9835

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

51-0

.59

-1.1

58.

25-2

.07

1.92

5.26

-0.1

83.

213.

591.

81-7

.55

-14.

21-0

.53

-1.9

23.

222.

13

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…18

6320

4621

1520

0920

2820

5320

6119

3819

4320

3521

0817

4317

6617

6276

5081

5180

25%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

21.7

138

.37

33.9

823

.48

8.86

0.37

-2.5

2-3

.50

-4.1

7-0

.88

2.25

-10.

09-9

.14

-13.

4224

.61

6.55

-1.5

5

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4422

4434

4833

4188

4573

4533

4968

4277

4724

4710

5194

4231

4567

4797

1763

718

262

1890

6%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.81

3.66

4.13

6.07

3.42

2.23

2.80

2.14

3.30

3.90

4.55

-1.0

9-3

.31

1.86

2.09

3.54

3.52

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 18

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

2944

429

925

3018

730

636

3080

930

863

3122

031

653

3215

232

295

3285

631

610

3144

333

207

1181

6912

3528

1289

57%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

12.1

36.

693.

566.

082.

280.

704.

725.

666.

451.

807.

13-1

4.33

-2.1

024

.40

2.99

4.54

4.39

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…2.

974.

594.

887.

074.

643.

133.

423.

324.

364.

645.

24-0

.14

-2.2

12.

822.

994.

544.

39

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…30

5430

2030

6531

1630

7030

2931

0630

9731

5332

0432

1829

7831

8232

6412

141

1232

112

671

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…7.

05-4

.38

6.10

6.79

-5.7

4-5

.24

10.6

2-1

.24

7.50

6.57

1.77

-26.

6130

.28

10.7

30.

261.

482.

84%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.16

-1.2

3-0

.61

3.77

0.53

0.30

1.35

-0.6

12.

715.

773.

59-3

.82

0.91

1.88

0.26

1.48

2.84

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1261

1285

1321

1317

1375

1385

1408

1450

1447

1435

1539

1560

1417

1556

5168

5486

5869

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-1

1.82

8.09

11.5

6-1

.13

18.6

73.

036.

6812

.43

-0.8

6-3

.28

32.3

35.

66-3

1.93

45.5

63.

406.

147.

00%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.04

1.74

3.50

1.26

9.06

7.76

6.56

10.0

45.

213.

569.

297.

60-2

.05

8.49

3.40

6.14

7.00

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…49

4650

0351

9451

1452

7352

9352

3453

4153

7055

0556

4554

6358

5760

6920

144

2091

421

861

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-4

.47

4.68

16.1

8-5

.99

13.0

11.

56-4

.40

8.40

2.20

10.4

410

.60

-12.

2832

.06

15.3

14.

213.

824.

53%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.72

4.10

6.79

2.23

6.61

5.81

0.78

4.43

1.84

4.00

7.86

2.30

9.06

10.2

54.

213.

824.

53

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

3078

3067

3022

3103

3125

3123

3291

3410

3436

3455

3444

3007

2617

3057

1218

712

643

1374

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

7.80

-1.4

3-5

.67

11.1

42.

90-0

.26

23.3

115

.24

3.07

2.22

-1.2

7-4

1.88

-42.

6486

.22

0.61

3.74

8.72

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…2.

110.

96-0

.64

2.73

1.55

1.85

8.90

9.89

9.94

10.6

24.

64-1

1.82

-23.

84-1

1.52

0.61

3.74

8.72

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

2806

2940

2974

2979

2946

2944

2948

2953

3002

3001

3067

3229

3374

3262

1143

411

818

1202

3%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

14.3

620

.50

4.78

0.57

-4.2

7-0

.26

0.49

0.63

6.88

-0.1

59.

0622

.89

19.2

5-1

2.70

3.41

3.36

1.74

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…2.

536.

665.

289.

785.

000.

15-0

.89

-0.8

71.

891.

924.

039.

3612

.39

8.68

3.41

3.36

1.74

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…21

821

921

321

722

022

823

423

823

224

724

426

529

830

685

789

996

1%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

24.4

01.

86-1

0.92

7.03

6.67

15.6

810

.37

7.83

-10.

0627

.85

-5.2

440

.24

58.8

812

.19

-8.4

74.

916.

92%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-10.

79-1

.93

-2.7

14.

840.

894.

159.

8810

.08

5.49

8.16

4.11

11.1

828

.18

24.0

6-8

.47

4.91

6.92

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…86

087

784

683

587

886

596

510

9610

8010

8110

3389

338

366

134

0235

4242

90%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

21.5

68.

40-1

3.44

-5.2

622

.18

-5.8

654

.87

66.7

3-5

.82

0.57

-16.

83-4

4.05

-96.

6378

9.32

-1.6

04.

1021

.11

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…-0

.09

-0.5

3-0

.98

1.96

2.09

-1.4

513

.98

31.2

823

.01

25.0

67.

06-1

8.52

-64.

57-3

8.90

-1.6

04.

1021

.11

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…89

0891

3491

8294

7494

8395

8096

0196

5099

9298

9910

149

1017

210

403

1085

235

885

3813

839

690

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…11

.93

10.5

32.

1113

.33

0.38

4.18

0.89

2.02

14.9

9-3

.67

10.4

50.

949.

3818

.39

2.28

6.28

4.07

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

454.

535.

079.

396.

454.

894.

571.

865.

383.

335.

705.

424.

119.

622.

286.

284.

07

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2433

2350

2309

2421

2387

2388

2424

2425

2468

2469

2465

2246

2119

2453

9317

9621

9828

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…42

.94

-12.

93-6

.83

20.9

1-5

.48

0.20

6.15

0.15

7.32

0.01

-0.5

1-3

1.10

-20.

8179

.59

-2.0

33.

272.

15%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.71

-0.9

1-1

.49

8.82

-1.8

71.

635.

000.

173.

403.

361.

70-7

.38

-14.

16-0

.63

-2.0

33.

272.

15

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…18

8120

3020

6120

6120

5220

2620

0919

9419

7220

0020

5317

9617

9417

2776

3481

4880

20%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

63.8

935

.56

6.37

-0.0

6-1

.71

-4.9

5-3

.38

-2.8

5-4

.49

5.95

11.0

6-4

1.50

-0.4

3-1

4.05

24.4

26.

73-1

.58

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…22

.00

37.4

734

.02

23.9

79.

09-0

.17

-2.5

4-3

.23

-3.9

2-1

.28

2.22

-9.9

5-9

.01

-13.

6524

.42

6.73

-1.5

8

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4389

4461

4500

4525

4551

4559

4612

4635

4708

4729

4811

4590

4566

4822

1761

418

246

1888

5%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

12.1

36.

693.

562.

292.

280.

704.

722.

086.

451.

807.

13-1

7.16

-2.1

024

.40

2.01

3.59

3.50

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

993.

593.

886.

103.

692.

202.

492.

433.

463.

744.

33-0

.97

-3.0

31.

962.

013.

593.

50

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 19

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, N

ot S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3134

131

559

3462

130

474

3346

133

298

3662

531

851

3539

635

412

3920

632

306

3473

536

857

1254

4413

3858

1418

64%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.48

6.37

7.07

9.14

6.76

5.51

5.79

4.52

5.78

6.35

7.04

1.43

-1.8

74.

084.

926.

715.

98

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…32

9133

2731

6732

5733

8734

1132

8432

7535

3236

6134

5931

9835

8837

7912

879

1333

913

927

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…4.

870.

271.

855.

272.

902.

533.

700.

564.

287.

325.

34-2

.36

1.60

3.24

2.05

3.57

4.41

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1304

1315

1720

1194

1446

1436

1887

1337

1534

1504

2106

1462

1509

1653

5493

5963

6480

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

772.

136.

833.

5110

.86

9.22

9.71

11.9

26.

134.

7011

.58

9.35

-1.6

79.

915.

158.

568.

67

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…54

6553

1258

6149

3259

4457

4860

5052

1061

3760

7266

3654

0867

3667

9021

378

2267

424

056

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…4.

045.

789.

274.

078.

768.

213.

215.

633.

265.

649.

693.

809.

7511

.81

6.10

6.06

6.09

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

3380

3285

3220

3182

3500

3422

3593

3543

3888

3853

3828

3171

2971

3466

1292

213

697

1511

1%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.83

2.46

1.41

4.82

3.53

4.17

11.5

711

.33

11.0

912

.59

6.53

-10.

49-2

3.57

-10.

052.

446.

0010

.32

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

2910

3113

3398

3044

3127

3185

3433

3066

3238

3288

3625

3411

3665

3616

1213

712

788

1321

7%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.21

8.33

7.14

12.1

07.

482.

291.

010.

713.

553.

245.

6011

.26

13.2

09.

995.

365.

373.

35

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…22

922

126

121

023

723

629

123

425

525

930

726

533

032

690

997

510

57%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-8.6

3-0

.13

-1.2

86.

403.

816.

7811

.61

11.4

57.

499.

865.

4513

.07

29.0

825

.81

-6.4

57.

348.

31

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…10

0010

1091

172

810

3910

0710

7697

412

8212

7511

8280

945

379

236

2038

5047

13%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

1.86

-0.0

12.

254.

103.

94-0

.30

18.0

333

.91

23.4

026

.57

9.83

-16.

92-6

4.66

-37.

850.

366.

3322

.42

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…92

5794

0411

006

9409

1004

810

121

1174

297

1110

734

1062

712

608

1040

511

233

1181

638

103

4132

143

680

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…2.

896.

746.

9011

.54

8.54

7.62

6.69

3.20

6.82

5.01

7.37

7.15

4.65

11.1

94.

238.

445.

71

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2537

2401

2818

2358

2542

2503

3025

2388

2663

2631

3126

2245

2300

2652

9892

1042

810

808

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

181.

040.

6710

.37

0.18

4.25

7.35

1.26

4.78

5.12

3.35

-5.9

9-1

3.65

0.79

-0.1

65.

413.

65

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…19

6821

7022

5821

5921

9222

2822

4521

1321

3222

4123

3019

3219

5019

6681

1188

2388

16%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

23.7

240

.65

36.4

525

.90

11.3

62.

66-0

.59

-2.1

1-2

.71

0.59

3.79

-8.5

7-8

.56

-12.

2726

.90

8.78

-0.0

7

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4672

4704

5161

4501

4943

4918

5410

4664

5183

5186

5741

4691

5044

5352

1869

819

772

2077

5%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.48

5.36

6.05

8.15

5.80

4.56

4.83

3.62

4.87

5.44

6.13

0.58

-2.6

93.

213.

925.

745.

07

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 20

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s, S

easo

nally

Adj

uste

d (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2017

:220

17:3

2017

:420

18:1

2018

:220

18:3

2018

:420

19:1

2019

:220

19:3

2019

:420

20:1

2020

:220

20:3

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

3110

931

745

3223

332

929

3329

933

486

3399

634

515

3527

935

560

3631

535

050

3472

437

047

1252

5113

3710

1416

70%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

13.1

28.

446.

288.

934.

572.

276.

226.

269.

153.

228.

77-1

3.23

-3.6

729

.57

4.85

6.75

5.95

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…4.

676.

316.

809.

177.

045.

485.

474.

825.

956.

196.

821.

55-1

.57

4.18

4.85

6.75

5.95

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…32

2732

0432

7333

4933

1832

8633

8233

7734

6035

2735

5733

0235

1436

4112

868

1333

613

920

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…8.

00-2

.82

8.89

9.66

-3.6

3-3

.76

12.2

1-0

.69

10.2

28.

063.

34-2

5.67

28.1

915

.33

2.05

3.64

4.38

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…4.

860.

401.

225.

812.

842.

583.

360.

834.

277.

335.

15-2

.20

1.56

3.23

2.05

3.64

4.38

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

1332

1364

1411

1416

1486

1503

1533

1581

1587

1580

1701

1730

1565

1736

5478

5938

6448

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-1

1.04

9.86

14.5

01.

5221

.33

4.64

8.21

13.0

61.

65-1

.93

34.3

77.

02-3

3.02

51.6

15.

248.

408.

59%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

2.70

3.42

5.40

3.24

11.5

710

.22

8.67

11.6

46.

815.

0910

.93

9.42

-1.4

29.

935.

248.

408.

59

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…52

2553

0755

4554

9756

9957

4356

9958

2458

9260

6162

4060

5864

6867

7121

351

2263

824

017

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.62

6.39

19.2

3-3

.47

15.5

43.

15-3

.02

9.02

4.79

11.9

912

.31

-11.

1629

.94

20.1

16.

086.

036.

09%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.41

5.81

8.76

4.23

9.06

8.22

2.77

5.95

3.39

5.54

9.48

4.02

9.77

11.7

16.

086.

036.

09

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

3252

3253

3227

3335

3378

3389

3584

3718

3770

3804

3806

3334

2890

3410

1291

613

685

1509

9%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

8.75

0.18

-3.1

914

.13

5.20

1.30

25.0

815

.89

5.69

3.65

0.25

-41.

13-4

3.56

93.9

62.

415.

9610

.33

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

792.

621.

184.

753.

884.

1711

.06

11.4

811

.61

12.2

66.

21-1

0.33

-23.

35-1

0.35

2.41

5.96

10.3

3

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

2965

3119

3176

3202

3184

3195

3210

3220

3294

3304

3390

3580

3726

3639

1212

012

791

1320

8%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

15.3

822

.48

7.54

3.27

-2.1

31.

301.

941.

199.

591.

2510

.73

24.4

717

.34

-9.0

75.

275.

543.

26%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

4.22

8.42

7.22

11.9

37.

412.

441.

080.

563.

453.

435.

5911

.20

13.1

210

.12

5.27

5.54

3.26

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…23

123

322

723

323

824

825

526

025

527

226

929

432

934

290

897

310

56%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

25.5

13.

53-8

.58

9.91

9.06

17.4

911

.95

8.43

-7.7

829

.64

-3.7

842

.04

56.3

316

.86

-6.8

07.

158.

50%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

-9.3

2-0

.32

-0.9

26.

893.

206.

5212

.05

11.6

87.

099.

765.

6813

.06

29.0

125

.70

-6.8

07.

158.

50

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…90

893

190

489

794

993

810

5011

9511

8511

9111

4199

042

273

736

0638

3447

12%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

22.6

410

.17

-11.

16-2

.71

24.9

1-4

.39

57.1

067

.67

-3.4

41.

98-1

5.55

-43.

33-9

6.69

826.

280.

166.

3422

.88

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…1.

551.

110.

843.

954.

430.

8016

.23

33.1

824

.88

26.9

18.

67-1

7.14

-64.

34-3

8.09

0.16

6.34

22.8

8

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…94

1296

9098

0410

183

1024

910

395

1045

510

522

1096

410

900

1121

711

279

1148

912

107

3803

641

281

4360

4%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

12.9

212

.34

4.80

16.3

82.

625.

812.

342.

6017

.90

-2.3

212

.15

2.24

7.63

23.3

24.

128.

535.

63%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.12

6.25

7.01

11.5

38.

897.

276.

643.

336.

984.

867.

297.

204.

7811

.07

4.12

8.53

5.63

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

2570

2493

2465

2602

2580

2591

2640

2645

2709

2718

2725

2491

2340

2737

9874

1041

410

796

% C

hg P

rev

Qtr

SAAR

……

…..…

……

……

…44

.21

-11.

50-4

.38

24.1

6-3

.37

1.76

7.67

0.72

10.0

41.

411.

02-3

0.21

-22.

0887

.05

-0.2

75.

463.

67%

Chg

Sam

e Q

tr La

st Y

r……

……

……

……

3.38

0.72

0.33

10.9

50.

383.

957.

081.

624.

984.

893.

23-5

.82

-13.

610.

68-0

.27

5.46

3.67

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…19

8721

5322

0122

1522

1821

9821

8721

7521

6322

0222

7019

9119

8119

2780

9488

1988

10%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

65.3

437

.79

9.17

2.62

0.49

-3.4

7-1

.99

-2.3

1-2

.07

7.43

12.7

7-4

0.75

-2.0

2-1

0.48

26.7

08.

96-0

.10

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…24

.01

39.7

336

.49

26.4

011

.60

2.10

-0.6

1-1

.83

-2.4

60.

183.

76-8

.43

-8.4

2-1

2.51

26.7

08.

96-0

.10

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4637

4732

4805

4864

4919

4946

5022

5054

5166

5207

5318

5090

5042

5380

1867

019

750

2074

6%

Chg

Pre

v Q

tr SA

AR…

……

..……

……

……

13.1

28.

446.

285.

044.

572.

276.

222.

659.

153.

228.

77-1

6.10

-3.6

729

.57

3.85

5.79

5.04

% C

hg S

ame

Qtr

Last

Yr…

……

……

……

…3.

675.

305.

798.

186.

074.

534.

523.

925.

045.

285.

910.

70-2

.40

3.31

3.85

5.79

5.04

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Annu

al

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 1:

Sel

ecte

d U.

S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TN G

DP

(Mil2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…27

2055

.426

2983

.126

6574

.227

4618

.628

3481

.928

7302

.829

1928

.130

3451

.130

8318

.531

5005

.932

3520

.232

8787

.5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…0.

91-3

.33

1.37

3.02

3.23

1.35

1.61

3.95

1.60

2.17

2.70

1.63

US

GD

P (B

il201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1560

4.7

1520

8.8

1559

8.8

1584

0.7

1619

7.0

1649

5.4

1691

2.0

1743

2.2

1773

0.5

1814

4.1

1868

7.8

1909

1.7

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-0.1

4-2

.54

2.56

1.55

2.25

1.84

2.53

3.08

1.71

2.33

3.00

2.16

US

GD

P (B

il$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…...

1471

2.8

1444

8.9

1499

2.1

1554

2.6

1619

7.0

1678

4.9

1752

7.3

1823

8.3

1874

5.1

1954

3.0

2061

1.9

2143

3.2

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1.81

-1.7

93.

763.

674.

213.

634.

424.

062.

784.

265.

473.

98TN

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(MIL

2012

$) S

AAR

……

......

......

......

.23

1050

2296

0523

6748

2452

9625

3604

2526

1425

9525

2726

5027

8454

2863

1829

5343

3026

54Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…0.

62-0

.63

3.11

3.61

3.39

-0.3

92.

745.

062.

132.

823.

152.

48U

S PE

RSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (B

IL20

12$)

SAA

R…

……

…...

......

....

1321

112

816

1311

413

580

1400

913

992

1457

915

260

1552

115

991

1649

216

888

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

0.60

-2.9

92.

333.

553.

16-0

.12

4.19

4.67

1.71

3.03

3.14

2.40

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (M

IL$)

SAA

R…

……

……

……

…...

...21

7599

2160

4222

6587

2407

1825

3613

2560

1626

6873

2809

5528

9936

3034

6131

9690

3324

73Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…3.

64-0

.72

4.88

6.24

5.36

0.95

4.24

5.28

3.20

4.66

5.35

4.00

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(BIL

$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

......

1244

212

059

1255

213

327

1401

014

181

1499

215

724

1616

116

949

1785

218

552

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

3.62

-3.0

84.

086.

185.

131.

225.

724.

892.

784.

885.

333.

92TN

NO

NFA

RM

JO

BS (T

HO

US)

……

……

……

……

……

……

…27

74.9

2619

.426

14.9

2661

.527

15.0

2760

.028

21.6

2892

.929

65.4

3012

.430

63.3

3123

.0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-0

.81

-5.6

0-0

.17

1.78

2.01

1.66

2.23

2.53

2.50

1.59

1.69

1.95

US

NO

NFA

RM

JO

BS (M

IL)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

137.

213

1.3

130.

313

1.9

134.

213

6.4

138.

914

1.8

144.

314

6.6

148.

915

0.9

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-0.5

5-4

.33

-0.7

31.

221.

691.

641.

882.

071.

781.

571.

571.

37TN

MFG

JO

BS (T

HO

US)

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

358.

630

7.0

296.

930

2.4

311.

231

6.2

322.

833

0.8

341.

734

6.2

350.

535

5.1

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-5.0

2-1

4.41

-3.2

81.

852.

921.

602.

072.

493.

291.

341.

221.

31U

S M

FG J

OBS

(MIL

)……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

13.4

11.8

11.5

11.7

11.9

12.0

12.2

12.3

12.4

12.4

12.7

12.8

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-3.4

2-1

1.61

-2.6

91.

721.

700.

771.

381.

230.

140.

702.

001.

19TN

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (%

)……

……

……

……

……

…...

..6.

610

.59.

69.

07.

87.

76.

65.

64.

73.

83.

53.

4U

S U

NEM

PLO

YMEN

T R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

……

……

….

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

3.9

3.7

CH

AIN

ED P

RIC

E IN

DEX

, GD

P (2

012=

100.

0)…

……

……

......

.94

.395

.096

.198

.110

0.0

101.

810

3.6

104.

610

5.7

107.

811

0.3

112.

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…1.

910.

781.

172.

081.

921.

771.

840.

961.

051.

912.

391.

81U

S PE

RS

CO

NSU

MP

DEF

L (2

012=

100.

0)…

……

……

......

......

94.2

94.1

95.7

98.1

100.

010

1.3

102.

810

3.0

104.

110

6.0

108.

210

9.9

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

3.00

-0.0

91.

712.

531.

911.

351.

460.

211.

051.

792.

131.

49C

ON

SUM

ER P

RIC

E IN

DEX

, ALL

-UR

BAN

(82-

84=1

.000

)……

2.15

32.

146

2.18

12.

249

2.29

62.

330

2.36

72.

370

2.40

02.

451

2.51

12.

557

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

3.81

-0.3

21.

643.

142.

071.

471.

620.

121.

262.

142.

441.

81BA

NK

PRIM

E IN

TER

EST

RAT

E (%

)……

……

……

……

……

…5.

13.

33.

33.

33.

33.

33.

33.

33.

54.

14.

95.

3FE

DER

AL F

UN

DS

RAT

E (%

per

ann

um)…

……

……

……

……

1.92

80.

160

0.17

50.

102

0.14

00.

108

0.08

90.

133

0.39

51.

002

1.83

22.

158

30-Y

EAR

FIX

ED M

OR

TGAG

E R

ATE

(%)…

……

……

……

……

6.0

5.0

4.7

4.5

3.7

4.0

4.2

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.5

3.9

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

2012

$)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

9900

291

636

9235

895

408

9802

099

878

1035

3011

0119

1147

3411

8169

1235

2812

8957

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-5.7

0-7

.44

0.79

3.30

2.74

1.90

3.66

6.36

4.19

2.99

4.54

4.39

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(MIL

$)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

9323

586

220

8839

393

632

9801

710

1224

1064

6311

3479

1194

6212

5251

1337

1014

1670

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

-2.8

8-7

.52

2.52

5.93

4.68

3.27

5.18

6.59

5.27

4.85

6.75

5.95

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M (2

012$

)……

……

…...

..43

122

4338

044

008

4381

444

533

4401

644

443

4583

345

943

4642

346

958

4734

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-0

.66

0.60

1.45

-0.4

41.

64-1

.16

0.97

3.13

0.24

1.04

1.15

0.83

TN A

VG A

NN

UAL

WAG

E, N

ON

FAR

M ($

)……

……

……

......

...40

611

4082

042

119

4299

444

533

4460

845

701

4722

847

837

4920

250

828

5201

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…2.

310.

513.

182.

083.

580.

172.

453.

341.

292.

853.

302.

33

Boyd

Cen

ter f

or B

usin

ess

and

Econ

omic

Res

earc

h, U

nive

rsity

of T

enne

ssee

Dece

mbe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el




Tabl

e 2:

Sel

ecte

d Pe

r Cap

ita U

.S. a

nd T

enne

ssee

Eco

nom

ic In

dica

tors

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TN G

DP

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

……

……

……

……

4495

242

809

4193

642

925

4392

144

236

4460

646

012

4635

546

942

4778

748

148

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

……

-0.6

1-4

.77

-2.0

42.

362.

320.

720.

843.

150.

751.

271.

800.

76

US

GD

P (2

012$

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

.……

…51

172

4944

750

308

5072

451

501

5209

453

029

5427

154

815

5575

057

123

5807

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..-1

.03

-3.3

71.

740.

831.

531.

151.

792.

341.

001.

712.

461.

67

US

GD

P ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

……

……

……

…48

247

4697

648

351

4977

051

501

5300

854

958

5678

157

952

6004

863

004

6520

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..0.

90-2

.63

2.93

2.93

3.48

2.93

3.68

3.32

2.06

3.62

4.92

3.49

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E (2

012$

) SAA

R…

….

3714

436

538

3725

238

343

3931

138

903

3967

841

368

4190

442

678

4362

544

321

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-0.6

2-1

.63

1.95

2.93

2.52

-1.0

41.

994.

261.

301.

852.

221.

60

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

(201

2$) S

AAR

……

4332

341

668

4229

643

487

4454

644

190

4571

347

507

4798

449

134

5041

251

373

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-0.2

9-3

.82

1.51

2.82

2.43

-0.8

03.

453.

931.

002.

402.

601.

91

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E ($

) SAA

R…

……

……

3498

234

379

3565

337

627

3931

239

427

4080

142

628

4363

245

233

4722

148

688

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

2.35

-1.7

23.

715.

544.

480.

293.

494.

482.

353.

674.

403.

11

US

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($) S

AAR

……

……

.40

801

3920

640

481

4267

444

548

4478

547

008

4895

449

962

5207

754

568

5643

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge.

......

......

......

......

......

..2.

69-3

.91

3.25

5.42

4.39

0.53

4.96

4.14

2.06

4.23

4.78

3.42

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

(201

2$)…

……

……

……

1591

714

583

1453

214

914

1519

415

381

1582

816

708

1726

617

614

1824

618

885

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-6.8

7-8

.38

-0.3

42.

621.

881.

232.

915.

563.

342.

013.

593.

50

TN T

AXAB

LE S

ALES

($)…

……

……

……

……

1499

013

721

1390

914

636

1519

315

589

1627

717

218

1797

818

670

1975

020

746

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e....

......

......

......

......

.....

-4.0

8-8

.47

1.37

5.23

3.81

2.60

4.41

5.78

4.41

3.85

5.79

5.04

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators



Tabl

e 3:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

...…

……

2310

5022

9605

2367

4824

5296

2536

0425

2614

2595

2527

2650

2784

5428

6318

2953

4330

2654

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

0.62

-0.6

33.

113.

613.

39-0

.39

2.74

5.06

2.13

2.82

3.15

2.48

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

1207

1111

4735

1161

4311

7548

1218

2912

2384

1262

8513

3430

1371

0914

0705

1447

2414

8719

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

-1.4

3-4

.95

1.23

1.21

3.64

0.46

3.19

5.66

2.76

2.62

2.86

2.76

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…27

921

2687

026

332

2684

728

776

2912

028

636

2936

429

779

3073

131

873

3251

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…0.

69-3

.76

-2.0

01.

967.

191.

20-1

.66

2.54

1.41

3.20

3.72

2.01

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…23

456

2750

529

476

3250

633

252

3462

936

529

3814

838

800

3955

740

549

4178

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…-7

.70

17.2

67.

1610

.28

2.30

4.14

5.49

4.43

1.71

1.95

2.51

3.05

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

…34

118

3136

331

698

3379

736

130

3457

836

708

3881

740

146

4298

245

019

4490

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…2.

77-8

.08

1.07

6.62

6.90

-4.2

96.

165.

753.

427.

064.

74-0

.25

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

4540

948

907

5267

152

369

5188

852

717

5256

355

170

5576

756

407

5792

960

313

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

9.16

7.70

7.70

-0.5

7-0

.92

1.60

-0.2

94.

961.

081.

152.

704.

12

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

1909

818

746

1879

116

996

1719

919

590

2003

321

002

2156

222

365

2288

523

628

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

-0.3

7-1

.84

0.24

-9.5

51.

2013

.90

2.26

4.84

2.67

3.72

2.32

3.25

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

-146

9-1

029

-780

-774

-107

3-1

225

-116

4-1

278

-158

5-1

698

-186

6-1

958

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

-9.3

6-2

9.93

-24.

18-0

.83

38.6

114

.19

-4.9

49.

8023

.96

7.17

9.84

4.94

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

…37

144

3653

837

252

3834

339

311

3890

339

678

4136

841

904

4267

843

625

4432

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…-0

.62

-1.6

31.

952.

932.

52-1

.04

1.99

4.26

1.30

1.85

2.22

1.60

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 4:

Ten

ness

ee P

erso

nal I

ncom

e C

ompo

nent

s (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TN P

ERSO

NAL

INC

OM

E……

……

...…

……

2175

9921

6042

2265

8724

0718

2536

1325

6016

2668

7328

0955

2899

3630

3461

3196

9033

2473

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

3.64

-0.7

24.

886.

245.

360.

954.

245.

283.

204.

665.

354.

00

WAG

ES A

ND

SAL

ARIE

S……

……

……

1136

7910

7955

1111

5711

5351

1218

3312

4032

1298

6013

7496

1427

6514

9131

1566

5416

3370

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

1.51

-5.0

42.

973.

775.

621.

804.

705.

883.

834.

465.

044.

29

OTH

ER L

ABO

R IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…26

295

2528

125

201

2634

728

778

2951

229

446

3025

931

007

3257

134

501

3571

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…3.

70-3

.86

-0.3

24.

559.

232.

55-0

.22

2.76

2.47

5.04

5.92

3.52

PRO

PRIE

TOR

S IN

CO

ME…

……

……

…22

089

2588

728

210

3190

333

253

3509

537

564

3930

940

399

4192

343

892

4590

6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…-4

.92

17.2

08.

9713

.09

4.23

5.54

7.03

4.65

2.77

3.77

4.70

4.59

REN

T, IN

TER

EST,

DIV

IDEN

DS…

……

…32

133

2950

630

338

3316

836

133

3504

537

749

4000

041

803

4555

848

730

4933

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…5.

84-8

.17

2.82

9.33

8.94

-3.0

17.

725.

964.

518.

986.

961.

23

TRAN

SFER

PAY

MEN

TS…

……

……

……

4277

246

020

5041

151

386

5188

953

428

5405

256

850

5806

459

782

6270

366

256

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

12.4

47.

599.

541.

940.

982.

971.

175.

182.

142.

964.

895.

67

LESS

: PE

RS

CO

NT

FOR

SO

C IN

S……

1798

617

639

1798

316

678

1719

919

853

2060

021

642

2245

223

704

2477

125

956

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

2.61

-1.9

31.

95-7

.26

3.13

15.4

33.

765.

063.

755.

584.

504.

78

RES

IDEN

CE

ADJU

STM

ENT…

……

……

-138

3-9

68-7

47-7

60-1

073

-124

1-1

197

-131

7-1

650

-180

0-2

019

-215

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…-6

.67

-30.

01-2

2.86

1.70

41.2

515

.70

-3.5

510

.04

25.2

79.

0812

.18

6.49

PER

CAP

ITA

PER

SON

AL IN

CO

ME

($)…

…34

982

3437

935

653

3762

739

312

3942

740

801

4262

843

632

4523

347

221

4868

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

…2.

35-1

.72

3.71

5.54

4.48

0.29

3.49

4.48

2.35

3.67

4.40

3.11

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 5:

Ten

ness

ee N

onfa

rm E

mpl

oym

ent b

y Se

ctor

(tho

usan

ds o

f job

s)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…27

74.9

2619

.426

14.9

2661

.527

15.0

2760

.028

21.6

2892

.929

65.4

3012

.430

63.3

3123

.0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.8

1-5

.60

-0.1

71.

782.

011.

662.

232.

532.

501.

591.

691.

95

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…13

2.5

110.

010

5.1

108.

710

9.0

108.

011

1.0

117.

111

9.3

124.

512

9.0

134.

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-3.8

8-1

6.98

-4.4

63.

410.

29-0

.92

2.78

5.54

1.83

4.39

3.58

4.03

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…35

8.6

307.

029

6.9

302.

431

1.2

316.

232

2.8

330.

834

1.7

346.

235

0.5

355.

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-5.0

2-1

4.41

-3.2

81.

852.

921.

602.

072.

493.

291.

341.

221.

31

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

221.

118

2.1

176.

618

4.0

194.

219

9.2

205.

521

1.2

219.

522

2.0

224.

122

7.4

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-6

.84

-17.

66-3

.00

4.18

5.54

2.56

3.16

2.77

3.96

1.13

0.94

1.48

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…13

7.5

124.

912

0.3

118.

411

7.0

117.

011

7.3

119.

612

2.1

124.

212

6.4

127.

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-1.9

4-9

.18

-3.6

9-1

.56

-1.1

50.

000.

212.

012.

091.

701.

731.

02

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

598.

655

7.8

553.

256

1.6

573.

157

9.1

587.

759

9.9

615.

461

9.6

626.

463

9.3

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-1

.77

-6.8

0-0

.84

1.52

2.05

1.05

1.49

2.08

2.57

0.68

1.11

2.06

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…12

9.6

118.

811

4.5

115.

611

8.3

118.

511

8.0

117.

411

6.8

118.

111

9.3

120.

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-1.3

3-8

.33

-3.6

10.

982.

360.

13-0

.45

-0.4

7-0

.53

1.13

0.99

1.40

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

325.

630

7.1

307.

030

9.3

312.

931

5.1

320.

932

5.6

334.

133

5.9

335.

733

5.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-1

.56

-5.6

6-0

.06

0.77

1.17

0.70

1.84

1.47

2.59

0.54

-0.0

6-0

.03

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…14

3.4

131.

913

1.7

136.

714

1.8

145.

514

8.8

156.

916

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165.

617

1.5

182.

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

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-2.6

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53.

733.

772.

582.

315.

404.

850.

653.

566.

59

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…51

.047

.345

.344

.043

.444

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.645

.546

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.145

.5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

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.27

2.05

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61.

341.

981.

08-1

.96

0.91

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

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7.8

143.

313

9.8

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9.7

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815

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616

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172.

3Pe

rcen

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263.

762.

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35

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

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VIC

ES…

322.

229

4.7

305.

432

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135

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039

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140

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142

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enta

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hang

e……

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43.

636.

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586.

004.

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861.

812.

58

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

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361.

136

7.8

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638

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741

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enta

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hang

e……

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122.

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141.

38

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

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3.7

263.

526

2.0

267.

627

6.7

285.

829

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307.

931

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328.

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0Pe

rcen

tage

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36

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

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104.

510

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210

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310

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VER

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rcen

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FED

ERAL

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ILIA

N…

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.450

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rcen

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70.

081.

95

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

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5.6

375.

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137

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837

8.6

381.

238

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387.

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

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1.55

0.08

0.61

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3-0

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0.42

0.65

0.02

0.75

0.68

1.48

0.21

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata




Tabl

e 6:

Ten

ness

ee D

urab

le G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

Dec

embe

r 202

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

221.

118

2.1

176.

618

4.0

194.

219

9.2

205.

521

1.2

219.

522

2.0

224.

122

7.4

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

-6.8

4-1

7.66

-3.0

04.

185.

542.

563.

162.

773.

961.

130.

941.

48

WO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TS…

……

……

……

……

…14

.311

.310

.910

.811

.010

.911

.211

.612

.112

.512

.512

.5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

…-1

1.24

-20.

84-3

.55

-1.0

72.

25-1

.59

3.36

3.18

4.80

3.29

-0.1

40.

20

NO

NM

ETAL

LIC

MIN

ERAL

S……

……

……

14.2

11.6

11.3

11.8

12.5

12.1

12.0

12.7

13.3

13.6

14.2

14.3

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

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……

……

-8.3

8-1

8.89

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54.

215.

80-2

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15.

405.

202.

314.

280.

52

PRIM

ARY

MET

ALS…

……

….…

……

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.29.

28.

99.

39.

810

.110

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.710

.711

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.3Pe

rcen

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60-2

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4.69

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0.99

2.70

1.74

0.78

2.79

2.72

FABR

ICAT

ED M

ETAL

S……

……

……

…...

39.9

33.8

33.1

33.7

34.6

34.0

34.6

35.3

35.7

35.5

36.6

38.0

Perc

enta

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hang

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8-1

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71.

832.

63-1

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1.54

2.05

1.28

-0.5

03.

003.

78

MAC

HIN

ERY…

……

……

……

……

……

……

31.2

26.0

24.8

25.1

25.5

25.4

25.4

25.3

25.5

25.3

25.8

26.6

Perc

enta

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hang

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0-1

6.63

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91.

461.

65-0

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0.31

-0.6

20.

78-0

.77

2.19

2.88

CO

MPU

TER

S &

ELEC

TRO

NIC

S……

……

7.4

6.2

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.2

5.1

5.0

4.8

4.9

5.2

5.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

-8.2

6-1

6.07

-10.

580.

440.

73-7

.38

-3.0

2-2

.14

-3.1

91.

916.

987.

97

ELEC

TRIC

AL E

QU

IPM

ENT,

APP

LIAN

CES

& C

OM

PON

ENTS

……

……

..……

……

……

20.6

17.8

16.9

17.7

17.9

18.6

19.4

19.8

19.9

19.3

18.7

17.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

-6.9

4-1

3.43

-4.8

54.

451.

463.

754.

122.

010.

50-3

.07

-3.1

5-5

.85

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N E

QU

IPM

ENT…

……

52.5

40.4

40.5

45.8

53.6

59.5

63.8

66.8

72.5

74.5

74.0

75.1

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

-10.

46-2

2.96

0.03

13.2

117

.04

11.0

37.

134.

698.

642.

68-0

.59

1.48

FUR

NIT

UR

E……

……

……

……

……

……

…14

.210

.89.

78.

98.

78.

89.

09.

19.

49.

59.

69.

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

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26-1

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-7.7

3-2

.92

1.06

2.72

0.56

3.93

0.89

1.14

0.97

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S D

UR

ABLE

S……

……

…15

.515

.015

.015

.214

.914

.514

.815

.315

.616

.216

.416

.6Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

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98-2

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-0.6

21.

78-2

.19

-2.2

51.

773.

601.

733.

621.

241.

63

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

His

toric

al D

ata

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 7:

Ten

ness

ee N

ondu

rabl

e G

oods

Man

ufac

turin

g Em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds

of jo

bs)

Dec

embe

r 202

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

…13

7.5

124.

912

0.3

118.

411

7.0

117.

011

7.3

119.

612

2.1

124.

212

6.4

127.

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

.94

-9.1

8-3

.69

-1.5

6-1

.15

0.00

0.21

2.01

2.09

1.70

1.73

1.02

FOO

D…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…32

.632

.432

.733

.233

.132

.532

.833

.434

.435

.435

.735

.9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

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.62

-0.5

60.

831.

54-0

.21

-1.8

50.

951.

753.

003.

050.

760.

53

BEVE

RAG

E &

TOBA

CC

O…

……

……

……

……

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.4

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

0.14

0.16

-1.6

40.

163.

512.

583.

457.

7010

.85

5.58

4.24

2.53

PAPE

R…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

14.5

13.6

13.3

12.9

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.0

11.9

11.9

12.1

12.6

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-1.2

6-6

.47

-2.3

3-2

.98

-4.9

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.09

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10.

21-0

.63

-0.3

51.

614.

13

PRIN

TIN

G &

REL

ATED

SU

PPO

RT…

……

……

15.7

13.3

11.4

10.0

9.6

9.6

9.5

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.0

8.9

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-7.5

3-1

5.27

-13.

96-1

2.93

-3.4

40.

09-1

.22

-3.0

0-0

.29

-2.2

7-0

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-0.7

3

CH

EMIC

ALS…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

27.6

25.9

25.0

24.6

24.4

24.8

25.3

25.6

25.3

25.0

25.6

25.9

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

2.19

-6.1

8-3

.31

-1.6

3-0

.78

1.64

1.91

1.12

-1.1

7-1

.09

2.10

1.53

PLAS

TIC

S &

RU

BBER

……

……

……

……

……

25.4

20.4

19.9

20.4

20.0

20.2

20.8

21.9

23.2

24.3

24.8

24.8

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-4.4

0-1

9.87

-2.3

72.

68-2

.29

0.99

3.06

5.49

5.62

5.11

2.05

-0.0

3

MIS

CEL

LAN

EOU

S N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

16.6

14.3

13.0

12.3

12.5

12.5

11.4

11.6

11.6

11.6

12.0

12.1

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-2.8

7-1

4.18

-9.0

0-4

.97

1.42

0.08

-8.8

41.

690.

280.

073.

350.

83

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

His

toric

al D

ata

Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)



Tabl

e 8:

Ten

ness

ee A

vera

ge A

nnua

l Wag

e an

d Sa

lary

Rat

e by

Sec

tor (

2012

dol

lars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…43

122

4338

044

008

4381

444

533

4401

644

443

4583

345

943

4642

346

958

4734

9Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.6

60.

601.

45-0

.44

1.64

-1.1

60.

973.

130.

241.

041.

150.

83N

ATU

RAL

RES

OU

RC

ES, M

ININ

G A

ND

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

……

……

……

……

……

4800

347

214

4809

647

992

4860

148

297

4977

752

590

5335

154

508

5390

354

943

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-0

.33

-1.6

41.

87-0

.22

1.27

-0.6

23.

065.

651.

452.

17-1

.11

1.93

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…51

504

5237

554

754

5420

655

207

5439

555

136

5590

456

111

5650

555

106

5493

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.41

1.69

4.54

-1.0

01.

85-1

.47

1.36

1.39

0.37

0.70

-2.4

8-0

.31

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

5027

651

198

5336

052

620

5431

452

438

5352

854

376

5487

955

317

5547

955

336

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

701.

834.

22-1

.39

3.22

-3.4

52.

081.

580.

930.

800.

29-0

.26

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…53

483

5407

856

811

5666

656

693

5772

457

949

5860

158

325

5863

154

444

5422

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.2

21.

115.

05-0

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0.05

1.82

0.39

1.13

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70.

52-7

.14

-0.4

0TR

ADE,

TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

, UTI

LITI

ES…

…40

515

4025

540

715

4092

741

232

4074

541

342

4253

942

753

4302

143

296

4332

0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-2.2

2-0

.64

1.14

0.52

0.74

-1.1

81.

472.

890.

500.

630.

640.

06W

HO

LESA

LE T

RAD

E……

……

……

……

……

6089

160

422

6162

762

033

6352

462

980

6551

667

613

6941

568

942

6741

767

979

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-0

.96

-0.7

71.

990.

662.

40-0

.86

4.03

3.20

2.67

-0.6

8-2

.21

0.83

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

2794

428

023

2845

328

512

2832

527

686

2800

828

854

2896

129

211

2965

829

318

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-3

.30

0.28

1.54

0.21

-0.6

5-2

.26

1.16

3.02

0.37

0.86

1.53

-1.1

5TR

ANSP

OR

TATI

ON

& U

TILI

TIES

……

……

5064

350

580

5111

551

183

5111

250

926

5094

452

178

5183

852

550

5322

252

714

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.08

-0.1

21.

060.

13-0

.14

-0.3

60.

042.

42-0

.65

1.37

1.28

-0.9

6IN

FOR

MAT

ION

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

5385

854

218

5527

557

166

5816

257

054

5912

459

482

6108

263

855

6786

068

172

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.93

0.67

1.95

3.42

1.74

-1.9

03.

630.

612.

694.

546.

270.

46FI

NAN

CIA

L AC

TIVI

TIES

……

……

……

……

……

5980

759

797

6282

462

704

6592

563

817

6462

665

649

6602

665

299

6767

468

776

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.67

-0.0

25.

06-0

.19

5.14

-3.2

01.

271.

580.

57-1

.10

3.64

1.63

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

4726

948

996

4957

048

671

5132

850

980

4986

952

657

5252

853

122

5578

157

541

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

213.

651.

17-1

.81

5.46

-0.6

8-2

.18

5.59

-0.2

41.

135.

013.

15ED

UC

ATIO

N &

HEA

LTH

SER

VIC

ES…

……

…45

022

4613

646

015

4527

745

234

4493

545

139

4699

346

741

4723

447

276

4752

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.2

02.

47-0

.26

-1.6

0-0

.10

-0.6

60.

454.

11-0

.54

1.06

0.09

0.53

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…20

936

2089

121

300

2117

121

436

2102

921

680

2298

123

121

2380

724

524

2432

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-2.4

3-0

.22

1.96

-0.6

01.

25-1

.90

3.10

6.00

0.61

2.97

3.01

-0.8

0O

THER

SER

VIC

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…38

793

3927

239

170

3928

139

678

3937

440

886

4193

641

682

4165

041

691

4201

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.1

51.

23-0

.26

0.28

1.01

-0.7

73.

842.

57-0

.61

-0.0

80.

100.

77G

OVE

RN

MEN

T……

……

……

……

……

……

……

4171

741

944

4181

041

923

4181

741

623

4200

142

396

4253

943

255

4351

243

865

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-0

.15

0.54

-0.3

20.

27-0

.25

-0.4

60.

910.

940.

341.

680.

600.

81FE

DER

AL, C

IVIL

IAN

……

……

……

……

……

6817

569

160

7085

273

073

7205

270

861

7644

375

480

7477

774

887

7598

274

618

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-2

.55

1.44

2.45

3.13

-1.4

0-1

.65

7.88

-1.2

6-0

.93

0.15

1.46

-1.8

0ST

ATE

& LO

CAL

……

……

……

……

……

……

3823

938

317

3780

837

726

3773

837

749

3756

438

073

3834

539

182

3938

939

893

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

460.

20-1

.33

-0.2

20.

030.

03-0

.49

1.35

0.71

2.18

0.53

1.28

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

a

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 9:

Ten

ness

ee A

vera

ge A

nnua

l Wag

e an

d Sa

lary

Rat

e by

Sec

tor (

curr

ent d

olla

rs)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L N

ON

FAR

M…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…40

611

4082

042

119

4299

444

533

4460

845

701

4722

847

837

4920

250

828

5201

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.31

0.51

3.18

2.08

3.58

0.17

2.45

3.34

1.29

2.85

3.30

2.33

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

, MIN

ING

AN

D C

ON

STR

UC

TIO

N…

……

……

……

……

…45

207

4442

146

027

4709

048

600

4894

851

186

5419

355

554

5777

558

344

6035

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.65

-1.7

43.

622.

313.

210.

724.

575.

872.

514.

000.

993.

44

MAN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G…

……

……

……

……

……

…48

505

4929

352

404

5318

955

206

5512

656

695

5760

758

424

5988

859

646

6034

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

3.42

1.63

6.31

1.50

3.79

-0.1

42.

851.

611.

422.

51-0

.40

1.17

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

……

……

4735

248

185

5106

751

633

5431

253

144

5504

456

033

5714

158

629

6005

060

787

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…3.

731.

765.

981.

115.

19-2

.15

3.58

1.80

1.98

2.60

2.42

1.23

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…50

363

5089

854

375

5560

156

694

5850

159

585

6038

460

730

6214

058

929

5956

5Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.75

1.06

6.83

2.25

1.97

3.19

1.85

1.34

0.57

2.32

-5.1

71.

08

TRAD

E, T

RAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, U

TILI

TIES

……

3815

537

878

3896

740

162

4123

241

293

4251

243

835

4451

645

597

4686

447

585

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…0.

71-0

.73

2.87

3.07

2.67

0.15

2.95

3.11

1.56

2.43

2.78

1.54

WH

OLE

SALE

TR

ADE…

……

……

……

……

…57

345

5685

358

981

6087

163

530

6382

767

371

6967

272

281

7306

872

968

7467

2Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.01

-0.8

63.

743.

204.

370.

475.

553.

423.

741.

09-0

.14

2.33

RET

AIL

TRAD

E……

……

……

……

……

……

2631

626

369

2723

127

980

2832

428

058

2880

029

734

3015

530

959

3210

332

203

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…-0

.40

0.20

3.27

2.75

1.23

-0.9

42.

653.

241.

422.

673.

690.

31

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N &

UTI

LITI

ES…

……

…47

690

4759

548

920

5022

251

112

5161

252

386

5376

653

975

5569

557

607

5790

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.85

-0.2

02.

782.

661.

770.

981.

502.

640.

393.

193.

430.

51

INFO

RM

ATIO

N…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…50

720

5102

152

900

5610

258

167

5782

260

796

6129

063

604

6767

673

446

7489

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

-0.0

10.

593.

686.

053.

68-0

.59

5.14

0.81

3.77

6.40

8.53

1.97

FIN

ANC

IAL

ACTI

VITI

ES…

……

……

……

……

…56

325

5626

860

134

6153

065

928

6467

266

452

6764

868

745

6921

073

257

7555

0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.25

-0.1

06.

872.

327.

15-1

.91

2.75

1.80

1.62

0.68

5.85

3.13

PRO

FESS

ION

AL &

BU

SIN

ESS

SER

VIC

ES…

4451

346

104

4744

147

757

5133

251

665

5128

054

259

5469

256

302

6037

863

210

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…5.

253.

572.

900.

677.

490.

65-0

.74

5.81

0.80

2.94

7.24

4.69

EDU

CAT

ION

& H

EALT

H S

ERVI

CES

……

……

4240

143

412

4403

944

430

4523

445

539

4641

648

424

4866

750

060

5117

252

210

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

792.

381.

440.

891.

810.

671.

924.

330.

502.

862.

222.

03

LEIS

UR

E &

HO

SPIT

ALIT

Y……

……

……

……

…19

717

1965

720

385

2077

521

436

2131

222

294

2368

124

074

2523

226

546

2672

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.48

-0.3

13.

711.

913.

18-0

.58

4.61

6.22

1.66

4.81

5.21

0.67

OTH

ER S

ERVI

CES

……

……

……

……

……

……

3653

336

955

3748

738

543

3967

839

905

4204

343

213

4339

744

142

4512

746

153

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

…2.

841.

161.

442.

822.

940.

575.

362.

780.

431.

722.

232.

27

GO

VER

NM

ENT…

……

……

……

……

……

……

…39

287

3946

440

014

4113

941

817

4218

343

189

4368

644

293

4584

447

098

4818

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

2.84

0.45

1.39

2.81

1.65

0.87

2.39

1.15

1.39

3.50

2.73

2.31

FED

ERAL

, CIV

ILIA

N…

……

……

……

……

…64

202

6507

867

815

7170

272

050

7181

778

606

7777

777

856

7937

082

243

8196

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

0.37

1.36

4.21

5.73

0.49

-0.3

29.

45-1

.05

0.10

1.95

3.62

-0.3

4

STAT

E &

LOC

AL…

……

……

……

……

……

…36

012

3605

136

183

3702

037

739

3825

638

627

3923

239

926

4152

842

635

4382

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

3.47

0.11

0.37

2.31

1.94

1.37

0.97

1.57

1.77

4.01

2.67

2.79

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

eeTe

nnes

see

Econ

omet

ric M

odel

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)



Tabl

e 10

: Te

nnes

see

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

and

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CIV

ILIA

N L

ABO

R F

OR

CE

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…30

5630

5430

9031

2531

0230

6830

2530

5731

2331

8532

5433

43Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

-0.2

7-0

.07

1.18

1.12

-0.7

3-1

.10

-1.4

01.

072.

161.

982.

172.

74

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

……

…28

5327

3527

9228

4428

5928

3028

2528

8629

7630

6531

4032

30Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

-2.3

3-4

.15

2.09

1.87

0.51

-1.0

0-0

.17

2.14

3.12

3.01

2.43

2.88

UN

EMPL

OYE

D P

ERSO

NS

(TH

OU

S)…

…20

331

929

828

024

323

820

017

214

812

011

511

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

41.8

457

.41

-6.6

3-5

.95

-13.

32-2

.21

-15.

99-1

4.05

-13.

89-1

8.80

-4.5

2-1

.08

PAR

TIC

IPAT

ION

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

……

63.4

62.7

61.4

61.5

60.5

59.4

58.0

58.1

58.8

59.2

59.9

61.0

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

……

……

……

…-1

.54

-1.0

3-2

.13

0.25

-1.7

2-1

.86

-2.2

70.

141.

130.

821.

071.

85

UN

EMPL

OYM

ENT

RAT

E (P

ERC

ENT)

……

…6.

610

.59.

69.

07.

87.

76.

65.

64.

73.

83.

53.

4

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate



Tabl

e 11

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

9900

291

636

9235

895

408

9802

099

878

1035

3011

0119

1147

3411

8169

1235

2812

8957

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-5.7

0-7

.44

0.79

3.30

2.74

1.90

3.66

6.36

4.19

2.99

4.54

4.39

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…84

3171

4580

1485

8992

7596

9610

267

1144

012

109

1214

112

321

1267

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

8.89

-15.

2512

.16

7.17

7.99

4.54

5.89

11.4

35.

850.

261.

482.

84

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

4775

3713

3819

4085

4041

4115

4337

4732

4999

5168

5486

5869

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-7.9

4-2

2.24

2.87

6.96

-1.0

71.

815.

409.

105.

643.

406.

147.

00

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…17

359

1461

015

144

1587

816

374

1658

117

058

1806

219

331

2014

420

914

2186

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-9

.00

-15.

843.

654.

853.

121.

272.

885.

887.

034.

213.

824.

53

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

9529

9395

9463

9687

1019

710

435

1088

811

676

1211

312

187

1264

313

744

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-1.8

8-1

.40

0.72

2.37

5.27

2.33

4.34

7.24

3.74

0.61

3.74

8.72

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

9129

9376

9283

9391

9690

1011

310

401

1077

411

057

1143

411

818

1202

3Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-4

.39

2.70

-0.9

91.

163.

184.

372.

853.

592.

633.

413.

361.

74

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…67

569

871

574

279

382

586

994

293

685

789

996

1Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…3.

943.

402.

423.

676.

914.

075.

328.

43-0

.64

-8.4

74.

916.

92

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…24

5721

6721

6023

7724

8825

0528

0231

2734

5834

0235

4242

90Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-4

.61

-11.

81-0

.31

10.0

44.

690.

6911

.83

11.6

210

.57

-1.6

04.

1021

.11

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…29

983

2848

828

540

2930

130

179

3072

031

979

3388

235

086

3588

538

138

3969

0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

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……

..……

……

……

…-3

.15

-4.9

90.

182.

672.

991.

794.

105.

953.

552.

286.

284.

07

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

8266

7827

7988

8139

8423

8577

8797

9186

9510

9317

9621

9828

Perc

enta

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e……

…..…

……

……

……

-2.5

8-5

.31

2.07

1.88

3.49

1.83

2.56

4.41

3.53

-2.0

33.

272.

15

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…83

9982

1772

3172

2065

6063

1161

3362

9961

3676

3481

4880

20Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-0

.12

-2.1

7-1

1.99

-0.1

5-9

.14

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0-2

.83

2.72

-2.5

924

.42

6.73

-1.5

8

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1591

714

583

1453

214

914

1519

415

381

1582

816

708

1726

617

614

1824

618

885

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-6.8

7-8

.38

-0.3

42.

621.

881.

232.

915.

563.

342.

013.

593.

50

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)



Tabl

e 12

: Te

nnes

see

Taxa

ble

Sale

s (m

illio

ns o

f cur

rent

dol

lars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

TOTA

L TA

XABL

E SA

LES…

……

……

……

……

……

9323

586

220

8839

393

632

9801

710

1224

1064

6311

3479

1194

6212

5251

1337

1014

1670

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-2.8

8-7

.52

2.52

5.93

4.68

3.27

5.18

6.59

5.27

4.85

6.75

5.95

AUTO

DEA

LER

S……

……

……

……

……

……

…79

3867

2576

7184

2992

7598

2710

558

1178

912

609

1286

813

336

1392

0Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

6.47

-15.

2814

.07

9.89

10.0

35.

957.

4411

.66

6.96

2.05

3.64

4.38

PUR

CH

ASES

FR

OM

MAN

UFA

CTU

RER

S….

4496

3493

3656

4009

4042

4170

4460

4876

5205

5478

5938

6448

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-5.1

7-2

2.31

4.65

9.67

0.82

3.18

6.95

9.33

6.75

5.24

8.40

8.59

MIS

C D

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

…16

347

1374

714

494

1558

316

372

1680

417

542

1861

420

127

2135

122

638

2401

7Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-6

.27

-15.

915.

437.

515.

062.

644.

396.

118.

136.

086.

036.

09

EATI

NG

AN

D D

RIN

KIN

G P

LAC

ES…

……

……

8973

8840

9057

9507

1019

710

576

1119

612

032

1261

212

916

1368

515

099

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

1.06

-1.4

82.

454.

977.

263.

715.

877.

474.

822.

415.

9610

.33

FOO

D S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

……

8600

8821

8884

9216

9690

1024

910

696

1110

211

513

1212

012

791

1320

8Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

.49

2.57

0.72

3.73

5.14

5.77

4.35

3.80

3.70

5.27

5.54

3.26

LIQ

UO

R S

TOR

ES…

……

……

……

……

……

…63

665

768

572

879

383

689

497

197

590

897

310

56Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…7.

053.

314.

176.

318.

935.

476.

868.

660.

37-6

.80

7.15

8.50

HO

TELS

AN

D M

OTE

LS…

……

……

……

……

…23

1320

3920

6723

3324

8825

3928

8132

2336

0036

0638

3447

12Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-1

.78

-11.

871.

4012

.85

6.66

2.04

13.4

711

.86

11.7

10.

166.

3422

.88

OTH

ER R

ETAI

L AN

D S

ERVI

CE…

……

……

…28

237

2680

527

315

2875

630

178

3113

432

884

3491

636

531

3803

641

281

4360

4Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…-0

.24

-5.0

71.

905.

274.

953.

175.

626.

184.

624.

128.

535.

63

MIS

C N

ON

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS…

……

……

……

7784

7364

7645

7987

8423

8693

9046

9466

9902

9874

1041

410

796

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

0.33

-5.3

93.

814.

475.

453.

214.

074.

644.

60-0

.27

5.46

3.67

TRAN

SPO

RTA

TIO

N, C

OM

MU

NIC

ATIO

N…

…79

1077

2969

2170

8565

6063

9663

0664

9163

8880

9488

1988

10Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

..……

……

……

…2.

87-2

.29

-10.

452.

37-7

.41

-2.5

0-1

.40

2.93

-1.5

826

.70

8.96

-0.1

0

PER

CAP

ITA

($)…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

1499

013

721

1390

914

636

1519

315

589

1627

717

218

1797

818

670

1975

020

746

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e……

…..…

……

……

……

-4.0

8-8

.47

1.37

5.23

3.81

2.60

4.41

5.78

4.41

3.85

5.79

5.04

Boy

d C

ente

r for

Bus

ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0

His

toric

al D

ata

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)



Tabl

e 13

: Ten

ness

ee G

ross

Dom

estic

Pro

duct

by

Sect

or (m

illio

ns o

f 201

2 do

llars

)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

GR

OSS

DO

MES

TIC

PR

OD

UC

T....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

..27

2,05

526

2,98

326

6,57

427

4,61

928

3,48

228

7,30

329

1,92

830

3,45

130

8,31

931

5,00

632

3,52

032

8,78

8

Pe

rcen

tage

cha

nge…

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

0.91

-3.3

31.

373.

023.

231.

351.

613.

951.

602.

172.

701.

63

NAT

UR

AL R

ESO

UR

CES

& M

ININ

G...

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

.....

3,77

33,

428

2,72

22,

618

2,11

72,

788

2,49

62,

838

2,75

42,

749

2,82

32,

883

Perc

enta

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hang

e……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

…-1

.11

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4-2

0.60

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2-1

9.15

31.7

4-1

0.48

13.6

9-2

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92.

672.

13

CO

NST

RU

CTI

ON

......

......

......

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......

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9,14

48,

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8,89

59,

610

9,36

99,

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9,82

310

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11,0

2611

,474

11,4

69

Pe

rcen

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……

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……

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……

-8.4

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2.52

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62.

798.

04-2

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0.29

4.55

5.42

6.47

4.06

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MAN

UFA

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G...

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39,4

1539

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6243

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45,4

7845

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46,9

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48,4

5749

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49,2

55

Pe

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……

……

……

……

……

……

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1.03

0.48

4.18

5.46

4.51

0.25

3.06

0.68

2.43

1.42

0.23

DU

RAB

LE G

OO

DS.

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

24,8

1520

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19,9

1822

,226

24,0

8724

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25,3

2626

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27,2

4727

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28,4

7528

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Perc

enta

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hang

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……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

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25-1

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911

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8.37

3.19

1.89

5.72

1.76

2.67

1.79

1.16

NO

ND

UR

ABLE

GO

OD

S……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

……

19,4

8718

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19,6

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19,4

2820

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20,2

6520

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20,0

6120

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20,6

6920

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Perc

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……

……

……

……

……

……

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52.

100.

92-1

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T

RAD

E……

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50,4

6052

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53,5

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55,1

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57,6

4859

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60,2

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62,0

07

Pe

rcen

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……

……

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1.41

2.72

0.28

1.50

3.04

2.71

1.80

1.76

1.09

W

HO

LESA

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RAD

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……

……

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18,1

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19,5

0620

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20,8

2521

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21,9

9222

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22,0

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21,7

32

Pe

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……

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1.14

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685.

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783.

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……

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18,7

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19,6

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19,8

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22,8

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……

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T

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2614

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14,8

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15,4

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16,1

76

Pe

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……

……

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1.83

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IN

FOR

MAT

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……

……

……

……

……

……

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8,99

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FIN

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PR

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38

Boy

d C

ente

r for

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ines

s an

d Ec

onom

ic R

esea

rch,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Ten

ness

ee

Dec

embe

r 202

0H

isto

rical

Dat

a

Tenn

esse

e Ec

onom

etric

Mod

el

Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)

2021 - Haslam College of Business

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