2020 Annual Meeting of theCentral Bank Research Association

September 01-03, 2020

London School of Economics and Political Scienceand

Bank of England

Disclaimer: Participation of the co-sponsoring institutions in this event (ie those institutions sponsoring and/or organizing a session) does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendationor favoring endorsement of the views, opinions, products or services of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) or any other co-sponsor or other person or entity by any of the co-sponsor-ing institutions. All views expressed during CEBRA's annual meeting are strictly those of the authors, discussants, and other participants and not those of CEBRA, the cosponsoring institutions orany other institutions.

CEBRA 2020 Annual MeetingCEBRA's Currency Forum - a High-level Symposium on the Future of Money, Payments, and the Monetary and Financial System

PROGRAMTuesday, September 1Please note the time reference: San Francisco (GMT-7), Dallas/St. Louis (GMT-5), Atlanta/New York/Ottawa/Santiago (GMT-4), London (GMT+1), Central Europe (GMT+2), Jerusalem/Moscow (GMT+3), Peking/Shanghai/Singapore (GMT+8),Seoul/Tokyo GMT+9), Sydney (GMT+10). Time slots are given in GMT+1, local time in London, UK. See the time zone chart above or use the time zone converter.

The keynote is open for public and press! The panel is under Chatham House rule!03:15 - 03:20 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Introduction by Raphael Auer, BIS and CEBRA

03:20 - 03:50 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Opening RemarksMinouche Shafik, LSE Director

03:50 – 03:55 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

03:55 - 04:55 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Keynote Talk by Hyun Song Shin (BIS)The Economics of Distributed Ledger Technology

04:55 - 05:00 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

05:00 - 06:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Panel: International Currencies and the Monetary and Financial SystemPanelists: Gita Gopinath (IMF), Philip Lane (ECB), Hélène Rey (LBS), Andrès Velasco (LSE)Chair: Ricardo Reis (LSE)

Wednesday, September 2All parallel sessions are under Chatham House Rule! The keynote speech and the panel organized by the Bank of England are public and open for press!

Room #1:Banking, Debt, Risks,

Regulation

Room #2:InternationalEconomics

Room #3:Drivers and Dynamics of

Inflation & The Macroec. ofClimate Change

Room #4:Monetary Policy,Frameworks andCommunication

Room #5:Monetary Policy and Macro

Finance

Room #6:Markets,

Currencies, and Payments

10:50 - 12:50 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions ISession 1:

Evaluating the Effects of Too-big-to-fail Reforms

organized by Financial StabilityBoard (FSB)

Chair: Matteo Aquilina (FSB)

“Bank Funding Costs and CapitalStructure” Andrew Gimber (Bank ofEngland) joint with Aniruddha RajanDiscussant: Magdalena Tywoniuk(University of Geneva)

“Bail-in vs Bail-out: Bank Resolutionand Liability Structure” AndreaTarelli (Catholic University of Milan)joint with Luca Leanza andAlessandro SbuelzDiscussant: Christina Batali (ECB)

“Believing in Bail-in? MarketDiscipline and the Pricing of Bail-inBonds” Grant Turner (Reserve Bankof Australia) joint with Ulf Lewrickand José Maria SerenaDiscussant: Rhiannon Sowerbutts(Bank of England)

Session 11:Spillovers in a Low-for-long

Environmentorganized by ECB - International

Policy DivisionChair: Georgios Georgiadis and

Fabrizio Venditti (both ECB)

“US Banks and Global Liquidity”Ricardo Correa (FRB) joint withWenxin Du, Gordon Liao

“Optimal Monetary Policy underDollar Pricing” Konstantin Egorov(New Economic School) joint withDmitry Mukhin

“Risk, Uncertainty and MonetaryPolicy in a Global World” MarieHoerova (ECB) joint with GeertBekaert and Nancy Xu

“Capital Flow Deflection under theMagnifying Glass” Etienne Lepers(OECD) joint with Filippo Gori andCaroline Mehigan

Session 6:Inflation Expectations andHousehold Consumption

organized by ABFERChair: Michael Weber (University ofChicago) and Bernard Yeung (NUS

Business School)

“Polarized Expectations” RupalKamdar (Indiana University,Bloomington) joint with Walker Ray

“Inflation Expectations, InterestRates, and Consumption Behavior”Ricardo Nunes (University ofSurrey) joint with Donghyun Park

“Forward Guidance and HouseholdExpectations” DimitrisGeorgarakos (ECB) joint withMichael Weber, Olivier Coibion andYuriy Gorodnichenko

"Inflation Expectations ofHouseholds and the UpgradingChannel" Sumit Agarwal (NationalUniversity of Singapore) joint withYeow Hwee Chua (NUS) andChangcheng Song (SingaporeManagement School)

Session 17:The Future of Inflation

Targetingorganized by Centre for

Macroeconomics and LSEChair: Ricardo Reis and Wouter

Den Haan (both LSE)

“A Pitfall of Cautiousness inMonetary Policy” Stéphane Dupraz(Banque de France) joint with SophieGuilloux-Nefussi and AdrianPenalver

“A Model of Post-Crisis MonetaryPolicy” Oliver Loisel (CREST) jointwith Behzad Diba

“Public Liquidity Demand andCentral Bank Independence”Guillaume Platin (SciencePo) jointwith Jean Barthelemy and EricMengus

“Information Frictions and theParadox of Price Flexibility” DonghaiZhang (University of Bonn) joint withShengliang Ou and Renbin Zhang

Session 25:Macroeconomic Heterogeneity

and Monetary Policyorganized by CEBRA - MPMF

Chair: TBA

“Crossing the Credit Channel: CreditSpreads and Firm Heterogeneity”Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank ofEngland) joint with Gareth Anderson

“Consumption Heterogeneity: MicroDrivers and Macro Implications”Edmund Crawley (Federal ReserveBoard) joint with Andreas Kuchler

“Household Debt and theHeterogeneous Effects of ForwardGuidance” Francesco Ferrante andMatthias Paustian (both FederalReserve Board)

“Monetary Policy, Labor IncomeRedistribution and Credit Channel:Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registers”Martina Jasova (ColumbiaUniversity), joint with CaterinaMendicino, Ettore Panetti, José-LuisPeydró and Dominik Supera

Session 34:The Economics of

Cryptocurrencies andDecentral Consensusorganized by CEBRA

Chair: Cyril Monnet (BIS)

“Global Demand for Basket-BackedStablecoins” Jean Flemming(Federal Reserve Board) joint withGarth Baughman

“Committee Blockchain ConsensusProtocol as Game versusAdversaries” Bruno Biais (ToulouseSchool of Economics)

“Too Big to Cheat: Mining Pools'Incentives to Double Spend inBlockchain Based Cryptocurrencies”Ville Savolainen (Hanken School ofEconomics) joint with Jorge Soria

“Ride the Lightning: Turning Bitcoininto Money” Peter Zimmerman(FRB Cleveland) joint with AnanthaDivakaruni

12:50 - 01:10 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break01:10 - 03:10 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions II

Session 9:New Developments in the Global

Debt Marketsorganized by CEBRA - IFM

Chair: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi(Bank of England) and Galina Hale

(FRBSF and UC Santa Cruz)

Session 13:Capital Flows, Financial

Intermediation and Productivityorganized by Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and

Development (OECD)Chair: Etienne Lepers and Lilas

Demmou (both OECD)

Session 4:Inflation: Drivers and

Dynamicsorganized by Center for Inflation

Research, Federal Reserve Bank ofCleveland

Chair: Raphael Schoenle (FRBCleveland) and Robert Rich (FRB

Session 16:New Theoretical and Empirical

Frameworks of MonetaryPolicy Analysis

organized by Bank of JapanChair: Daisuke Ikeda (Bank of

Japan)

Session 24:Monetary Policy, Macroprudential

Policy and FinancialStability

organized by ECB - DirectorateGeneral Research

Chair: Luc Laeven, AngelaMaddaloni and Caterina Mendicino

Session 31:Central Bank Digital Currencyorganized by Bank of Canada

Chair: Francisco Rivadeneyra(Bank of Canada)

“Demand for Payment Services andConsumer Welfare: The

“Differential Treatment in the BondMarket: Sovereign Risk and MutualFund Portfolios” Nathan Converse(Federal Reserve Board) joint withEnrico Mallucci

“Avoiding Sovereign DefaultContagion: A Normative Analysis”Enrico Mallucci (Federal ReserveBoard) joint with Sergio de Ferra

“Cross-country Co-movements inSovereign-bond Markets: Accountingfor the Fundamental andInformation” Paula Margaretic(Universidad de San Andrés) andDavid Moreno (Banco Central deChile) joint with Alejandro Bernales

The Making of Global Safe Assets”Maurizio Habib (ECB) joint withFabrizio Venditti and Livio Stracca

“Macro-financial Interactions in aChainging World” Eddie Gerba(Bank of England) joint with DanielLeiva-LeonDiscussant: Yves Schüler(Deutsche Bundesbank)

“International Financial Flows andMisallocation” Fadi Hassan (Bank ofItaly) joint with Federico CinganoDiscussant: Liliana Varela (LSE)

“Foreign Investment and DomesticProductivity: Identifying KnowledgeSpillovers and Competition” VadymVolosovych (Erasmus School ofEconomics) joint with Christian Fons-Rosen, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Bent E. Sorensen and CarolinaVillegas-SanchezDiscussant: Görg Holger (KielInstitute for the World Economy)

Cleveland)

“Control Costs, Rational Inattention,and Retail Price Dynamics” JamesCostain (Banco de España) jointwith Anton Nakov

“Inflation and Deflationary Biases inInflation Expectations” MichaelLamla (Leuphana UniversityLüneburg) joint with Damjan Pfajfarand Lea Rendell

“Anchored Inflation Expectations”Emanuel Moench (DeutscheBundesbank and Goethe University)joint with Carlos Viana de Carvalho,Stefano Eusepi and Bruce Preston

“Monetary Policy Communicationsand their Effects on HouseholdInflation Expectations” MichaelWeber (University of Chicago) jointwith Olivier Coibion and YuriyGorodnichenko

“Digital Money as a Unit of Accountand Monetary Policy” Daisuke Ikeda(Bank of Japan)

“Monetary Policy, Redistribution, andRisk Premia” Moritz Lenel(Princeton University) joint withRohan Kekre

“Forward Guidance with Life-CycleMotives” Antoine Lepetit (FederalReserve Board) joint with ElliotAurissergues

“Output-Inflation Tradeoffs and theOptimal Inflation Rate” Willem VanZandweghe (FRB Cleveland) jointwith Takushi Kurozumi

(all ECB)

“A Quantitative Analysis of theCountercyclical Capital Buffer”Miguel Faria-e-Castro (FRB St.Louis)Discussant: Ozge Akinci (FRB NewYork)

“Over-Saving and Financial Fragility”Davide Porcellacchia (ECB) jointwith Agnese Leonello, CaterinaMendicino and Ettore PanettiDiscussant: Thomas Eisenbach(FRB New York)

“The Zero Lower Bound andFinancial Stability: A Role for CentralBanks” Tatjana Schulze (Universityof Oxford) joint with DimitriosTsomocosDiscussant: Daria Finocchiaro(Sveriges Riksbank)

Introduction of a Central Bank DigitalCurrency” Kim Huynh (Bank ofCanada) joint with Jozef Molnar, AlexShcherbakov and Jerry Yu

“Central Bank Digital Currency,Inflation Tax, and Central BankIndependence” Ohik Kwon (Bank ofKorea) joint with Seungduck Lee andJaevin Park

“What Keeps Stable Coins Stable?”Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj (WarwickBusiness School) joint with RichardLyons

“Vertically Disintegrated Platforms”Tarik Roukny (KU Leuven) joint withChristoph Aymanns and MathiasDewatripont

03:10 - 03:30 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break03:30 - 04:30 p.m. London (GMT+1) Keynote Speech: Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England

The keynote speech is public!04:30 - 05:30 p.m. London (GMT+1) High-level Panel by Bank of England

Chair Andrew Haldane (BoE), panelists: Andrés Velasco (LSE), Viral Acharya (NYU Stern), Darrell Duffie (Stanford University), and Diane Coyle (Cambridge University)The panel organized by the Bank of England is public!

05:30 - 05:50 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break05:50 - 07:50 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions III

Session 8:Integration or Fragmentation of

Global Bankingorganized by International Banking

Research Network (IBRN)Chair: Claudia Buch (Deutsche

Bundesbank) and Linda Goldberg(FRB New York)

“The (Re)allocation of Bank Risk”Johannes Breckenfelder (ECB)joint with Geert Bekaert

“Banking Across Borders: AreChinese Banks Different” CaterineKoch (BIS) joint with Eugenio Ceruttiand Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

“International Integration,Diversification and Banking Stability”Justine Pedrono (Banque deFrance)

Session 10:International Trade and

Macroeconomicsorganized by CEBRA - ITM

Chair: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchy(Bank of England)

“Self-Harming Trade Policy?Protectionism and ProductionNetworks” Matteo Cacciatore (HECMontreal) joint with AlessandroBarattieriDiscussant: Federico Huneeus(Yale University and Central Bank ofChile)

“Invoicing and Pricing-to-market:Evidence on International Pricing byUK Exporters” Meredith A.Crowley, Giancarlo Corsetti (bothUniversity of Cambridge) and LuHan (University of Toronto)Discussant: Tommaso Aquilante(Bank of England)

“Global Value Chains and StockMarket Comovement” BruceIwadate (LSE) joint with RaphaelAuer, Andreas Schrimpf andAlexander WagnerDiscussant: Thomas Drechsel(University of Maryland)

Session 28:The Challenges imposed by

Climate Changeorganized by Sveriges Riksbank

Chair: Conny Olovsson and TorJacobson (both Sveriges Riksbank)

“The Macroeconomic Effects ofCarbon Taxes: The Role ofInvestment and Emission RatesHeterogeneity” Giuseppe Fiori(Federal Reserve Board) joint withNora Traum

“Understanding Macro and AssetPrice Dynamics During the ClimateTransition” Steffen Hitzemann(Rutgers University) joint withMichael Donadelli and PatrickGrüning

“The Rising Cost of Climate Change:Evidence from the Bond Market”Glenn Rudebusch (FRB SanFrancisco) joint with Michael D.Bauer

“Asset Pricing and Decarbonization:Diversification versus ClimateAction” Rick van der Ploeg(University of Oxford) joint withChristoph Hambel and Holger Kraft

Session 18:Empirical Research on the

Conduct of Monetary Policyorganized by Federal Reserve Bank

St. LouisChair: Michael Owyang and David

Wheelock (both FRB St. Louis)

“(Hawks versus Doves) versus(Rules versus Discretion)” KlodianaIstrefi (Banque de France) joint withAlex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David H.Papell and Ruxandra Prodan

“Revisiting the Fed's ForecastAdvantage” Michael Owyang (FRBSt. Jouis) joint with MichaelMcCracken and Amy Guisinger

“Measuring the Effect of FederalReserve Forward Guidance andAsset Purchases on FinancialMarkets” Eric Swanson (Universityof California, Irvine)

“A Composite Index for Evaluatingthe Stance of Monetary Policy”David Wheelock (FRB St. Louis)joint with Laura E. Jackson andMichael T. Owyang

Session 26:Integrated Policy Frameworksorganized by IMF - Money andCapital Markets Department

Chair: Tobias Adrian and GastonGelos (both IMF)

“Leaning Against the Wind: AnEmpirical Cost-Benefit Analysis”Luis Brandao-Marques (IMF) jointwith Luis Brandao-Marques, GastonGelos, Machiko Narita and ErlendNierDiscussant: Fernando Mendo(Central Bank of Chile)

“How Does the Interaction ofMacroprudential and MonetaryPolicies Affect Cross-border BankLending?” Judit Temesvary(Federal Reserve Board) joint withElod TakatsDiscussant: PhurichaiRungcharoenkitkul (BIS)

“Unintended Effects of Macro-Prudential Policy on Real InterestRates and Liquidity Traps”Alejandro Van der Ghote (ECB)Discussant: Jesper Linde (SverigesRiksbank)

Session 32:(Central Bank) Digital

Currencies: Macroeconomic andFinancial Markets

Consequencesorganized by CEBRA

Chair: Linda Schilling (EcolePolytechnique CREST, CEPR) and

Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago)

“Designing Central Bank DigitalCurrencies” Anil Ari (IMF) joint withItai Agur, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

“Digital Currency Runs” David Skeie(University of Warwick)

“Central Bank Digital Currency withAdjustable Interest Rate in SmallOpen Economies” Taojun Xie(National University of Singapore)joint with Ammu George and JosephD. Alba

“Cryptocurrencies, CurrencyCompetition and the ImpossibleTrinity” Linda Schilling (EcolePolytechnique CREST, CEPR) jointwith Pierpaolo Benigno and HaraldUhlig

Thursday, September 3All parallel sessions and the poster session are under Chatham House Rule!

Room #1:Banking, Debt, Risks,

Regulation

Room #2:InternationalEconomics

Room #3:Drivers and Dynamics of

Inflation & The Macroec. ofClimate Change

Room #4:Monetary Policy,Frameworks andCommunication

Room #5:Monetary Policy and Macro

Finance

Room #6:Markets,

Currencies, and Payments

11:00 - 01:00 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions IVSession 2:

Financial Stability andRegulation

organized by CEBRAChair: David Aikman (King’s

College London) and MatthieuChavaz (Bank of England)

“Banking Supervision, MonetaryPolicy and Risk-Taking: Big DataEvidence from 15 Credit Registers”Miguel Boucinha (ECB) joint withCarlo Altavilla, José-Luis Peydró andFrank Smets

“Unintended Consequences of theGlobal Derivatives Market Reform”Pauline Gandre (University ParisNanterre/EconomiX) joint with MikeMariathasan, Ouarda Merrouche andSteven Ongena

“Countercyclical Capital Buffers: ACautionary Tale” Christoffer Koch(FRB Dallas) joint with GaryRichardson and Patrick Van Horn

“Reach for Yield by U.S. PublicPension Funds” Andrei Zlate(Federal Reserve Board) joint withLina Lu, Matthew Pritsker, AndreiZlate, Ken Anadu and James Bohn

Session 29:Macroeconomic Challenges of

Migrationorganized by Central Bank of

IrelandChair: Matija Lozej (Central Bank of

Ireland)

“Do Immigrants Take or CreateJobs? The Macro Effects on GermanUnemployment” Nicolo MaffeiFaccioli (MOVE, UniversitatAutònoma de Barcelona, and Unive)joint with Eugenia Vella

“Migrations, Long-run FiscalSustainability and Economic Unions”Sergii Kiiashko (National Bank ofUkraine, Kyiv School of Economics)joint with Pawel Kopiec

“Dynamic MacroeconomicImplications of Migration” KarlWalentin (Sveriges Riksbank) jointwith Conny Olovsson, AndreasWestermark

“Migration, House Prices, andMacroprudential Policy in a SmallOpen Economy” Luca Zavalloni(European Stability Mechanism) jointwith Matija Lozej

Session 5:Big Data in Macroeconomics

organized by University of BaselChair: Raphael Auer (BIS)

“Stocks and Prices during Covid”Alberto Cavallo (Harvard BusinessSchool) joint with Oleksiy Kryvtsov

“Financial Conditions and EconomicActivity: Insights from MachineLearning” Michaek Kiley (FederalReserve Board)

“Unequal Expenditure Switching:Evidence from the 2015 Swiss FrancAppreciation” Raphael Auer (BIS)joint with Ariel Burstein, Sarah Lein,Jonathan Vogel

Session 19:Central Bank Communication and

Credibilityorganized by Bank of Korea

Chair: Sok Won Kim (Bank ofKorea)

“Double Overreaction in Beauty-contests with Information Acquisition:Theory and Experiment” RomainBaeriswyl (Swiss National Bank)joint with Kene Boun My and CamilleCornand

“The Fed's Response to EconomicNews Explains the 'Fed InformationEffect'” Michael Bauer (UniversityHamburg) joint with Eric Swanson

“Forward Guidance” MarcusHagedorn (University of Oslo)

“Limitations on the Effectiveness ofForward Guidance in the context ofthe COVID-19 Pandemic” ArunimaSinha (Fordham University) jointwith Andrew T. Levin

Session 22:The Transmission Channels of

Quantitative Easing andQuantitative Tightening

organized by Bank of EnglandChair: Saleem Bahaj, Michael

Kumhof and Stephen Millar (allBank of England)

“Quantitative Easing” Wei Cui(University College London) jointwith Vincent SterkDiscussant: Saleem Bahaj (Bank ofEngland)

“Optimal Quantitative Easing in aMonetary Union” KostasMavromatis (De NederlandscheBank) joint with Romanos Priftis,Serdar Kabaca, Renske MaasDiscussant: Michael Kunhof (Bankof England)

“Quantitative Easing and the HotPotato Effect: Evidence from EuroArea Banks” Ellen Ryan (CentralBank of Ireland) joint with KarlWhelanDiscussant: Stephen Millar (Bank ofEngland)

Session 14:Post-trade Transparency, EMIR

and MIFID IIorganized by Leibniz Institute SAFEChair: Loriana Pelizzon (SAFE and

Goethe University)

“Reshaping the Financial Network:Value Redistribution andExternalities in Central Clearing”Olga Briukhova (University ofZurich, Swiss Finance Institute)Discussant: Wenqian Huang (BIS)

“Pitfalls of Central Clearing in thePresence of Systematic Risk”Christian Kubitza (University ofBonn) joint with Loriana Pelizzonand Mila Getmansky ShermanDiscussant: Guillaume Vuillemey(HEC Paris)

“The Cost of ClearingFragmentation” Evangelos Benos(Bank of England) joint with WenqianHuang, Albert Menkveld and MichalisVasiosDiscussant: Rama Cont (Universityof Oxford)

01:00 - 01:20 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break01:20 - 03:20 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions V

Session 33:Cyberrisks in the Financial Sectororganized by BIS - Innovation and

Digital Economy UnitChair: Jon Frost (BIS)

“Operational and Cyber Risks in theFinancial Sector” Thomas Leach (University of Pavia) joint with IñakiAldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta andPaolo GiudiciDiscussant: Antoine Bouveret(ESMA)

“Cyber Risk and the U.S. FinancialSystem: A Pre-Mortem Analysis”Thomas Eisenbach (FRB NewYork) joint with Anna Kovner andMichael LeeDiscussant: Jon Danielsson (LSE)

“Will Investors Buy Extreme CyberRisk?” Christoph Jaenicke(University of St. Gallen) joint withAlexander Braun and Martin ElingDiscussant: Daniel Woods(University of Innsbruck)

Session 12:Monetary Policy, Capital Flows

and Exchange Ratesorganized by Bank for International

Settlements (BIS)Chair: Boris Hofman (BIS)

“Capital Flows and Exchange Rates:A Quantitative Assessment of theDilemma Hypothesis” AmbrogioCesa-Bianchy (Bank of England)joint with Andrea Ferrero andAlessandro Rebucci

“Exchange Rate Misalignment andExternal Imbalances: What is theOptimal Monetary PolicyResponse?” Giancarlo Corsetti(Cambridge University) joint withLuca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc

“How Does International Capital"Flow"?” Andrej Sokol (ECB) jointwith Michael Kumhof and PhurichaiRungcharoenkitkul

“The Dollar and Emerging MarketEconomies: Financial VulnerabilitiesMeet the International Trade System”Samer Shousha (Federal ReserveBoard)

Session 7:Competition and Monetary

Policyorganized by Bank of Israel

Chair: Sigal Ribon (Bank of Israel)

“Bank Concentration and MonetaryPolicy Pass-through” IsabelHanisch (University of Notre Dame)

“The Bank Entry Channel ofMonetary Policy Transmission”Stephen Karolyi (Carnegie MellonUniversity) joint with Emilio Bisetti,Stefan Lewellen

“Macroprudential and MonetaryPolicies with an ImperfectlyCompetitive Banking Sector” NimrodSegev (Bank of Israel)

“Optimal Trend Inflation,Misallocation and the Pass-throughof Labour Costs to Prices” SergioSantoro (Bank of Italy) joint withEliana Viviano

Session 21:Future of EMU: DevelopingInstitutions and ReviewingMacroeconomic Policies

organized by Bank of FinlandChair: Esa Jokivuolle (Bank ofFinland) and Andrea Ferrero

(University of Oxford)

“Breaking the Sovereign-BankNexus” Jorge Abad (Bank of Spain,CEMFI)

“Secular Stagnation in a CurrencyUnion” Michaela Schmöller (Bankof Finland)

“Does a Currency Union Need aCapital Market Union? Risk Sharingvia Banks and Markets” MarkusSihvonen (Bank of Finland) jointwith Joseba Martinez and ThomasPhilippon

“When Do Currency Unions BenefitFrom Default?” Xuan Wang(University of Oxford)

Session 23:Negative Monetary Policy Rates

and Bank Lendingorganized by Banque de FranceChair: Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

(Banque de France)

“How Stimulative are Low RealInterest Rates for IntangibleCapital?” Andrea Caggese(Pompeu Fabra University) joint withAnder PerezDiscussant: Julieta Yung (BatesCollege)

“The Signalling Channel of NegativeInterest Rates” Alexander Haas(University of Oxford) joint withOliver de GrootDiscussant: Mauricio Ulate (FRBSan Francisco)

“Is There a Zero Lower Bound? TheEffects of Negative Policy Rates onBanks and Firms” Sarah Holton(Central Bank of Ireland) joint withCarlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon andMariassunta GiannettiDiscussant: Guillaume Horny(Banque de France)

Session 30:Financial Innovation and

Payment Behaviororganized by Österreichische

Nationalbank (OeNB)Chair: Helmut Stix

(Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

“The Geography of MortgageLending in Times of FinTech”Christoph Basten (University ofZurich) joint with Steven Ongena

“Estimating Demand for PaymentInstruments and Systems: AnApplication to Payment Migration inCanada” Zhentong Lu (Bank ofCanada) joint with Anneke Kosseand Gabriel Xerri

“Can Technology UndermineMacroprudential Regulation?Evidence from Online MarketplaceCredit in China” Alberto Manconi(Bocconi University) joint with FabioBraggion and Haikun Zhu

“The Causal Effect of FinancialInnovation on Payment Choice andCash Demand - Evidence from theStaggered Introduction ofContactless Debit Cards” HelmutStix (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)joint with Martin Brown, NicoleHentschel and Hannes Mettler

03:20 - 03:40 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break

03:40 - 04:20 p.m. London (GMT+1) Poster Session:

Inflation: Drivers, Dynamics, and PersistenceOrganized by Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and ECB - Directorate General ResearchChair: Luca Dedola (ECB), Robert Rich (FRB Cleveland) and Raphael Schoenle (FRB Cleveland)

Room #1Rodrigo Lluberas (Banco Central de Uruguay) joint with Serafin Frache and Javier Turen“Belief-Dependent Pricing Decisions”

Room #2Gabriel Zuellig (Danmarks Nationalbank) joint with Mark Kristoffersen and Luca Dedola“Extensive and Intensive Margin of Cost Shock Pass-through: Evidence form Danish Multiproduct Firms”

Room #3Christian Höynck (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)“Production Networks and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve”

Room #4Laura Moretti (ECB) joint with Luca Onorante and Shayan Zakipour-Saber“Phillips Curves in the Euro Area”

Room #5Ángelo Gutierrez-Daza (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)“Inattentive Inflation Beliefs”

Room #6Ewa Stanisławska (Narodowy Bank Polski) joint with Paweł Baranowski, Wirginia Doryń and Tomasz Łyziak“Words and Deeds in Managing Expectations: Empirical Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy”

04:20 - 04:40 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break

04:40 - 06:40 p.m. London (GMT+1) Parallel Sessions VISession 36:

Anchoring Inflation andExpectations

organized by LSE

Session 35:Capital Flows and

Macroeconomic Policyorganized by FRB San Francisco

Chair: Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel(both FRB San Francisco)

“Sticky Capital Controls” AndresFernandez (Central Bank of Chile)joint with Miguel Acosta-Henao andLaura Alfaro

“The Effect of the China Connect”Chang Ma (Fudan University) jointwith John Rogers and Sili Zhou

“Global Business and FinancialCycles: A Tale of Two CapitalAccount Regimes” AlessandroRebucci (Johns Hopkins University)joint with Julien Acalin

“Capital Controls and IncomeInequality” Mark Spiegel (FRB SanFrancisco) joint wit Zheng Liu andJingyi Zhang

Session 3:Inflation Dynamics and the

Phillips Curveorganized by Norges Bank

Chair: Francesco Furlanetto(Norges Bank)

“Who Killed the Phillips Curve?Amurder Mystery” Jae Sim (FederalReserve Board) joint with DavidRatner

“Anchored Inflation Expectations andthe Flatter Philips Curve” KevinLansing (Federal Reserve Bank ofSan Francisco) joint with Peter LihnJørgensen

“Inflation at Risk” Francesca Loria(Federal Reserve Board) joint withDavid Lopez-Salido

“The death and the resurrection ofthe Phillips Curve” Drago Bergholt(Norges Bank) joint with FrancescoFurlanetto and Etienne VaccaroGrange

Session 20:Expectation Heterogeneity and

Central Bankingorganized by Deutsche

BundesbankChair: Emanuel Moench (DeutscheBundesbank and Goethe University)

“Monetary Policy and HouseholdInflation Expectations: the Role ofDifferent Types of PolicyAnnounce”Sebastian Rast (EuropeanUniversity Institute)

“Social Learning and MonetaryPolicy at the Effective Lower Bound”Isabelle Salle (Bank of Canada)joint with Jasmina Arifovic, AlexGrimaud and Gauthier Vermandel

“The Factor Structure ofDisagreement” Fabian Winkler(Federal Reserve Board) joint withEdward Herbst

“Rational Inattention, Menu Costs,and Multi-Product Firms: MicroEvidence and AggregateImplications” Choongryul Yang(University of Texas at Austin)

Session 27:Monetary Policy Transmission and

Side Effects in the Lower forLonger Environment

organized by Bank of SpainChair: TBA

“Adapting Lending Policies in aNegative for Long Scenario” SergioMayordomo (Bank of Spain) jointwith Óscar Arce, Miguel García-Posada and Steven Ongena

“Prolonged Low Interest Rates andBanking Stability” Nao Sudo (Bankof Japan) joint with Kosuke Aoki, KoMunakat

“Going Negative at the ZLB: TheEffects of Negative Nominal InterestRates” Mauricio Ulate (FRB SanFrancisco)

“Banks, Money and the Zero LowerBound on Deposit Rates” MichaelKumhof (Bank of England) joint withXuan Wang

Session 15:Changing Money Market

Dynamicsorganized by FRB New York

Chair: Antoine Martin (FRB NewYork)

“What Do Almost 20 Years of MicroData and Two Crisis Say about theRelationship between Central Bankand Interbank Market Liquidity?Evidence from Italy” MassimilianoAffinito (Bank of Italy)

“Are Repo Markets Fragile?Evidence from September 2019”Alyssa Anderson (Federal ReserveBoard) joint with Sriya Anbil andZeynep Senyuz

“Did the Founding of the FedStabilize Overnight Funding Markets:New Evidence from Daily CallMoney” Caroline Fohlin (EmoryUniversity)

“The Interbank Market Puzzle” XianGu (University of Pennsylvania) jointwith Franklin Allen, Giovanni Covi,Xian Gu, Oskar Kowalewski andMattia Montagna

06:40 - 07:00 p.m. London (GMT+1) Break07:00 - 07:30 p.m. London (GMT+1) CEBRA Annual Meeting

Closing remarks by Ricardo Reis (LSE) and Michael Kumhof (Bank of England)

CEBRA 2020 Annual MeetingCEBRA's Currency Forum - a High-level Symposium on the Future of Money, Payments, and the Monetary and Financial System

SCHEDULETuesday, September 1Please note the time reference: San Francisco (GMT-7), Dallas/St. Louis (GMT-5), Atlanta/New York/Ottawa/Santiago (GMT-4), London (GMT+1), Central Europe (GMT+2), Jerusalem/Moscow (GMT+3), Peking/Shanghai/Singapore (GMT+8),Seoul/Tokyo GMT+9), Sydney (GMT+10). Time slots are given in GMT+1, local time in London, UK. See the time zone chart above or use the time zone converter.

The keynote is open for public and press! The panel is under Chatham House rule!03:15 - 03:20 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Introduction by Raphael Auer, BIS and CEBRA

03:20 – 03:50 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Opening RemarksMinouche Shafik, LSE Director

03:50 – 03:55 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

03:55 - 04:55 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Keynote Talk by Hyun Song Shin (BIS)The Economics of Distributed Ledger Technology

04:55 - 05:00 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

05:00 - 06:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Panel: International Currencies and the Monetary and Financial SystemPanelists: Gita Gopinath (IMF), Philip Lane (ECB), Hélène Rey (LBS), Andrès Velasco (LSE)Chair: Ricardo Reis (LSE)

Wednesday, September 2All parallel sessions are under Chatham House Rule! The keynote speech and the panel organized by the Bank of England are public and open for press!

Room #1:Banking, Debt, Risks,

Regulation

Room #2:InternationalEconomics

Room #3:Drivers and Dynamics of

Inflation & The Macroec. ofClimate Change

Room #4:Monetary Policy,Frameworks andCommunication

Room #5:Monetary Policy and Macro

Finance

Room #6:Markets,

Currencies, and Payments

Registration10:50 - 12:50 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions I

Session 1:Evaluating the Effects of Too-

big-to-fail Reformsorganized by Financial Stability

Board (FSB)

Session 11:Spillovers in a Low-for-long

Environmentorganized by ECB - International

Policy Division

Session 6:Inflation Expectations andHousehold Consumption

organized by ABFER

Session 17:The Future of Inflation

Targetingorganized by Centre for

Macroeconomics and LSE

Session 25:Macroeconomic Heterogeneity

and Monetary Policyorganized by CEBRA - MPMF

Session 34:The Economics of

Cryptocurrencies andDecentral Consensusorganized by CEBRA

12:50 - 01:10 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

01:10 - 03:10 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions II

Session 9:New Developments in the

Global Debt Marketsorganized by CEBRA - IFM

Session 13:Capital Flows, Financial

Intermediation andProductivity

organized by Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and

Development (OECD)

Session 4:Inflation: Drivers and

Dynamicsorganized by Center for InflationResearch, Federal Reserve Bank

of Cleveland

Session 16:New Theoretical and Empirical

Frameworks of MonetaryPolicy Analysis

organized by Bank of Japan

Session 24:Monetary Policy,

Macroprudential Policy andFinancialStability

organized by ECB - DirectorateGeneral Research

Session 31:Central Bank Digital Currencyorganized by Bank of Canada

03:10 - 03:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

03:30 - 04:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Keynote Speech: Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of EnglandThe keynote speech is public and open for press!

04:30 - 05:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

High-level Panel by Bank of EnglandChair Andrew Haldane (BoE), panelists: Andrés Velasco (LSE), Viral Acharya (NYU Stern), Darrell Duffie (Stanford University), and Diane Coyle (Cambridge University)The panel organized by the Bank of England is public!

05:30 - 05:50 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

05:50 - 07:50 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions III

Session 8:Integration or Fragmentation

of Global Bankingorganized by International

Banking Research Network(IBRN)

Session 10:International Trade and

Macroeconomicsorganized by CEBRA - ITM

Session 28:The Challenges imposed by

Climate Changeorganized by Sveriges Riksbank

Session 18:Empirical Research on the

Conduct of Monetary Policyorganized by Federal Reserve

Bank St. Louis

Session 26:Integrated Policy Frameworksorganized by IMF - Money andCapital Markets Department

Session 32:(Central Bank) Digital

Currencies: Macroeconomicand Financial Markets

Consequencesorganized by CEBRA

Thursday, September 3All parallel sessions and the poster session are under Chatham House Rule!

Room #1:Banking, Debt, Risks,

Regulation

Room #2:InternationalEconomics

Room #3:Drivers and Dynamics of

Inflation & The Macroec. ofClimate Change

Room #4:Monetary Policy,Frameworks andCommunication

Room #5:Monetary Policy and Macro

Finance

Room #6:Markets,

Currencies, and Payments

11:00 - 01:00 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions IV

Session 2:Financial Stability and

Regulationorganized by CEBRA

Session 29:Macroeconomic Challenges of

Migrationorganized by Central Bank of

Ireland

Session 5:Big Data in Macroeconomics

organized by University of Basel

Session 19:Central Bank Communication

and Credibilityorganized by Bank of Korea

Session 22:The Transmission Channels of

Quantitative Easing andQuantitative Tightening

organized by Bank of England

Session 14:Post-trade Transparency, EMIR

and MIFID IIorganized by Leibniz Institute

SAFE01:00 - 01:20 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

01:20 - 03:20 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions V

Session 33:Cyberrisks in the Financial

Sectororganized by BIS - Innovation

and Digital Economy Unit

Session 12:Monetary Policy, Capital Flows

and Exchange Ratesorganized by Bank for

International Settlements (BIS)

Session 7:Competition and Monetary

Policyorganized by Bank of Israel

Sesson 21:Future of EMU: DevelopingInstitutions and ReviewingMacroeconomic Policies

organized by Bank of Finland

Session 23:Negative Monetary PolicyRates and Bank Lending

organized by Banque de France

Session 30:Financial Innovation and

Payment Behaviororganized by Österreichische

Nationalbank (OeNB)03:20 - 03:40 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

03:40 - 04:20 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Poster Session

04:20 - 04:40 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

04:40 - 06:40 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Parallel Sessions VI

Session 36:Anchoring Inflation and

Expectationsorganized by LSE

Session 35:Capital Flows and

Macroeconomic Policyorganized by Federal Reserve

Bank San Francisco

Session 3:Inflation Dynamics and the

Phillips Curveorganized by Norges Bank

Session 20:Expectation Heterogeneity and

Central Bankingorganized by Deutsche

Bundesbank

Session 27:Monetary Policy Transmissionand Side Effects in the Lower

for Longer Environmentorganized by Bank of Spain

Session 15:Changing Money Market

Dynamicsorganized by Federal Reserve

Bank New York06:40 - 07:00 p.m. London(GMT+1)

Break

07:00 - 07:30 p.m. London(GMT+1)

CEBRA Annual MeetingClosing remarks by Ricardo Reis (LSE) and Michael Kumhof (Bank of England)

TIME ZONE CHART

GMT - Greenwich Mean Time / UTC - Coordinated Universal Time (Standard Time)Format: 12h/24h

San Francisco / Santa Cruz,USA (GMT -7)

New York, USAOttawa, Canada

(GMT-4)

London (GMT+1) Tokyo/Seoul (GMT+9)

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