2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic...

69
2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results Background Paper No 01/2019 By Antony Green

Transcript of 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic...

Page 1: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results

Background Paper No 01/2019 By Antony Green

Page 2: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

• NSW Legislative Council Election 2015, by Antony Green (Background Paper 01/2018)

• NSW Legislative Assembly election 2015: Two-party preferred results by polling place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 02/2015)

• 2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, by Antony Green (Background Paper 01/2015)

• NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred

results by polling place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 1/2012)

• 2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, by Antony Green (Background Paper 3/2011)

ISSN 1325-4456

ISBN

October 2019

© 2019

Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior consent from the Manager, NSW Parliamentary Research Service, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties.

Page 3: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results

by

Antony Green

Page 4: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW PARLIAMENTARY RESEARCH SERVICE

Matthew Dobson (BA (Psych Hons), PhD), Senior Manager, Health, Media and Communications ................. (02) 9230 2356 Daniel Montoya (BEnvSc (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Environment/Planning ......................... (02) 9230 2003 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Senior Research Officer, Law ....................................................... (02) 9230 2768 Chris Angus (BA(Media&Comm), LLM(Juris Doctor)), Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 2906 Tom Gotsis (BA, LLB, Dip Ed, Grad Dip Soc Sci) Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 3085 Alice Rummery (BACom, BCII), Graduate Research Officer ........................................................... (02) 9230 2519

Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author.

Information about Research Publications can be found online.

Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion.

Page 5: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

2019 NEW SOUTH WALES ELECTION Analysis of Results

CONTENTS

Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Statistical Highlights ............................................................................................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results .................................................................. 5

Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral District ..................................................... 10

Summary of Two-Party and Two-Candidate Preferred Results ................................. 31

Final Count Percentages and Results Basis .............................................................. 34

Electoral Pendulum and Analysis of Swing ................................................................ 37

Regional Summaries .................................................................................................. 41

By-elections 2015 - 2019 ............................................................................................ 45

Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result ...................................................................... 48

Detail of Legislative Council First Preference Votes .................................................. 51

New and Departing Members ............................................................................................... 59

NSW Election Results 1947-2019 ......................................................................................... 61

Page 6: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

2

Symbols

.. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting member + Sitting member contesting other chamber .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the

current election. Party Abbreviations

- Unaffiliated Candidates ADV Advance Australia Party (previously Building Australia Party) AFP # Australia First AJP Animal Justice Party ALP Australian Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) CON Australian Conservatives CLR Country Labor FLX Flux GRN The Greens IND Independents KSO Keep Sydney Open LDP Liberal Democratic Party LIB Liberal Party NAT The Nationals L/NP Liberal-National Party Coalition (where the two parties have been accumulated together) ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance SAP Sustainable Australia Party SBP Small Business Party SFF Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (previously Shooters and Fishers Party) UNI # Unity (contested 2015 election, no longer registered) VEP Voluntary Euthanasia Party (# – not registered parties) Important Dates Legislative Assembly dissolved Friday 1 March 2019 Issue of Writs Monday 4 March 2019 Close of Rolls (for printing) Monday 4 March 2019 Close of Nominations Wednesday 6 March 2019 Polling Day Saturday 23 March 2019 Date set for Return of Writ Friday 3 May 2019 (Writ returned 1 May 2019)

Page 7: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

1

INTRODUCTION This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election. It includes summaries of the results in all lower house electoral districts, comparisons with the 2015 election, and statistical analysis of results and swings across districts and regions. A summary of by-elections since 2015 is also included. Overall first preference results for the Legislative Council are provided, along with a summary of the Council's distribution of preferences.

Format for Legislative Assembly Results For each Legislative Assembly district, details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes, percentages and swings are provided, along with alternative two-party preferred results where appropriate. The format and calculations used for each district are as follows.

First Count: The vote shown for each candidate is the total of primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote. Change in vote share is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a candidate or party at the last election from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. All primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors.

Final Count: Represents votes for the two final candidates after the distribution of preferences. The total number of votes that exhaust preferences before reaching one of the final two candidates is shown as 'Exhausted'. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total of votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. The exhausted percentage is calculated as a percentage of formal votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final two candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Lismore), ghost candidates are included, and more than two swing figures are shown.

Two-Party Preferred: Represents a separate distribution of preferences between candidates of the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. These are included for districts where the formal distribution of preferences did not produce a two-party preferred finish.

Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred Results Two-candidate Preferred: To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes remaining in the count after the formal distribution of preferences. The distribution is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing each candidate’s ballot papers according to the next preferences for a candidate remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'.

Two-Party Preferred: Most Australian elections finish as a contest between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. The final distribution of preferences between Labor and Coalition candidates is referred to as the 'two-party preferred count'. If the two-candidate preferred count is not also a two-party preferred count, an alternate distribution of preference is undertaken retaining Labor and Coalition candidates through the distribution.

Two-party preferred counts were traditionally obtained from a second distribution of preferences. Since 2015 the NSW Electoral Commission has data entered all ballot papers and used the date to generate the formal distribution of preferences required to determine the winning candidate. The Commission now publishes a preference distribution tool on its website to determine a final count between any pairing of candidates. Two-party preferred totals in this publication have been derived using the Commission's on-line tool.

At the 2019 election, there were 74 districts where the two-candidate preferred count was also a two-party preferred count. There were 19 districts where an alternate count was required. There were four Liberal-Green contests (Davidson, Manly, Pittwater, Vaucluse), two Labor-Green contests (Balmain, Newtown) and one National-Green contest (Ballina). There were three National-SFF contests (Barwon, Murray, Orange), four National-Independent contests (Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Tamworth, Wagga Wagga), three Liberal-Independent contests (North Shore, Sydney, Wollondilly) and two Labor-Independents contests (Cabramatta, Lake Macquarie).

Page 8: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

2

Analysis of Two-Candidate Preferred Results and Exhausted Votes This publication includes a new table analysing two-candidate preferred results as a percentage of the formal vote in each district. This differs from the rest of the publication where the calculation is as a percentage of votes remaining in the count. This allows an assessment to be made of the impact of optional preferential voting by allowing seats to be classified as won based on first preferences, with a majority of the formal vote after the distribution of preferences, or with a plurality of the vote after preferences, that is without a majority of the formal vote.

The table can be found on Page 34 along with an explanation of the results.

Format for Legislative Council results. A summary of the Legislative Council election result is set out beginning on page 48. A summary table lists votes, percentage votes, change in vote and quotas by party. A second table provides a full listing of votes by candidate. The section includes a summary of above and below the line voting and an overview of the distribution of preferences. More detail on the Legislative Council result will be provided in a separate publication in the future.

Australian Labor Party and Country Labor Of the Australian Labor Party's candidates, 28 appeared on the ballot paper as Country Labor, an increase from 26 in 2015. Country Labor candidates are indicated in this publication by the party code CLR. While separate state totals have been shown for Labor and Country Labor, the two parties have been treated as the same party in most of this publication's other summary tables.

By-elections. Ten by-elections were conducted between 2015 and 2019. Two electorates changed party status, the National Party losing Orange to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in November 2016, and the Liberal Party losing Wagga Wagga to Independent Joe McGirr in September 2018. The results of by-elections can be found on page 45.

By-election swings are calculated compared to the 2015 election. With 2019 election results in seats where a by-election took place, swings are also calculated compared to the 2015 results. Where appropriate, footnotes have been provided for the 2019 results setting out the swing between the by-election and the 2019 result.

Disclaimer All results are based on details made available by the NSW Electoral Commission. However, responsibility for all calculations, errors and omissions is taken by the author. Note that due to rounding errors, some tables may not add to exactly 100%.

Acknowledgements I would like to express my thanks to the staff of the NSW Electoral Commission for their assistance in providing election results in electronic format and for other assistance concerning preference counts and Legislative Council results.

Antony Green September 2019

Page 9: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

3

STATISTICAL HIGHLIGHTS • A total of 568 candidates contested the Legislative Assembly election, up from 540 candidates in

2015, but down from 661 candidates in 2003 and the record 732 candidates in 1999. Changes in party nominations compared to 2015 included 75 fewer Christian Democrat candidates and zero No Land Tax candidates compared to 93 in 2015. New parties contesting in 2019 included Sustainable Australia (55 candidates), Keep Sydney Open (42), Pauline Hanson's One Nation (12), Australian Conservatives (19) and Liberal Democrats (10). The Animal Justice Party contested an extra 43 seats, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party made its first substantial foray into the lower house with 25 candidates.

• The Liberal/National Coalition, Labor/Country Labor and the Greens contested every seat. The average candidates per seat was 6.1 and the median 6. There were two districts contested by three candidates (Riverstone, South Coast) while two districts had 10 candidates (Murray, Penrith).

• There were 346 candidates for the Legislative Council, second only to the record 394 candidates in 2015. There were 21 columns on the ballot paper including the ungrouped column, down from 25 in 2015. Nineteen groups had group voting squares 'above the line'. The two candidates that appeared as Group H did not qualify for a group voting square.

• The state-wide two-party preferred vote was Coalition 52.0%, Labor 48.0%, the election recording a swing of 2.3 percentage points from the Coalition to Labor. The swing was 3.0 to Labor in greater Sydney, 1.3 in the Hunter and Illawarra, but there was no overall swing in rural and regional seats. The swing in Sydney delivered only one seat to Labor but ate into the margins of many Liberal-held seats. As in 2015, the Labor Party was not able to win the marginal Liberal but traditional Labor seat of East Hills.

• The Coalition vote in the Assembly fell to 41.6%, down 4.1 percentage points on 2015. The Coalition won 48 seats, Liberal 35 and National 13, down six since 2015. The Liberal Party lost Coogee at the election, having previously lost Wagga Wagga to an Independent at a by-election. The Nationals had lost Orange to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in November 2016, and lost Barwon and Murray to the same party at the general election. The Nationals also lost Lismore to Labor.

• Based on the post-election pendulum, and assuming the nine crossbench members are re-elected, Labor need a further uniform swing of 1.3% to deprive the Coalition of its majority, but 7.6% for majority Labor government. There will be a redistribution of electoral boundaries before the 2023 election.

• The Labor Party polled 33.3% of the first preference vote. It was the third election in a row where Labor polled less than 35%. Labor's vote was down 0.8 percentage points overall, up 0.7 percentage points in greater Sydney, 1.2 points in the Hunter and Illawarra, but down 5.3 percentage points in regional and rural seats. Labor gained Coogee from the Liberal Party and Lismore from the Nationals.

• The Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party made its first substantial tilt at lower house seats. The party won the Orange by-election in November 2016 and gained Barwon and Murray at the state election. The party nominated 25 candidates and polled 3.5% state-wide, 12.8% in the seats it contested. The party polled 12.2% in regional and rural seats, and 23.6% in western rural seats where the party recorded its three victories.

• For the first time since 1999, Pauline Hanson's One Nation contested a NSW election under its original name. The party's main success was in the Legislative Council where it polled 6.9% and elected two members, including former Federal Labor Leader Mark Latham. This was a better result than the 6.3% and one MLC the party elected in 1999. One Nation had contested 88 lower house seats and polled 7.5% in 1999, but contested only 12 seats in 2019 for 1.1% of the state-wide vote, or 8.3% in the seats it contested.

Page 10: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

4

• The Green vote in the Assembly was 9.6%, down 0.7% since 2011, but the party retained its three seats. The party lost one of the three Legislative Council seats it won in 2011, and slipped to third place behind Labor in Lismore and Summer Hill.

• Eighty members of the Legislative Assembly were re-elected, 29 Liberal, 11 National, 33 Labor and seven crossbench members. There were ten retirees, two members defeated, and one Liberal transferred to the Legislative Council. There were 13 new MLAs, nine replacing retirees including one transfer from the Legislative Council. There were four new members in seats that changed party status. Two seats that changed party status at by-elections between 2015 and 2019 were retained by the by-election victor. (For full details of changes in Assembly membership see page 59.)

• Fifty districts were won on first preferences, 24 with a majority of the formal votes after the distribution of preferences, and nineteen with a majority of the votes remaining in the count but only a plurality of the formal vote. Two of the plurality victories (Ballina, Lismore) were won by the party that finished second on first preferences. A full distribution of preferences was required in 22 districts, and a partial distribution in 21. (For details see page 36)

• After the distribution of preferences, the highest rate of exhausted preferences was 25.4% in Wollondilly. The lowest winning two-candidate vote as a percentage of the formal vote was 39.9% in Upper Hunter where 24.2% of votes exhausted their preferences. (For details see page 36)

• Compared to Coalition's overwhelming Legislative Council result in 2011, the Coalition lost three seats, the Greens and Christian Democrats one each. It was the first time the Christian Democrats (formerly Call to Australia) had failed to win a seat since entering the Legislative Council in 1981. Labor gained two seats, One Nation two and the Animal Justice Party one. (See Legislative Council results page 48)

• Between 2015 to 2019 the Coalition had 20 MLCs, needing only two extra votes from one crossbench party to pass legislation. In the new Council, the government has only 17 members and needs five extra votes from a crossbench consisting of two Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, two One Nation, two Animal Justice, three Greens, one Independent (ex-Green) and one Christian Democrat.

• As a percentage of all Legislative Council votes, above-the-line votes with preferences increased from 15.3% in 2015 to 27.6% in 2019. Above-the-line votes without preferences declined from 83.0% to 69.7%, and the rate of below-the-line voting increased from 1.7% to 2.7%. The increase in above the line voting with preferences is almost certainly due to voter experience with the new Senate voting system introduced in 2016, where voters are instructed to complete at least six preferences above the line. (See Legislative Council summary page 48.)

• The 2019 Legislative Council election was the fifth using the current electoral system. At the four previous elections, more than 80% of preferences exhausted in the final stages of the distribution of preferences. The increased rate of above the line voting with preferences saw the exhaustion rate fall to 72.2% in 2019.

• The Animal Justice Party was successful after polling only 1.95% (0.43 quotas). Under the current electoral system, this was the second lowest first preferences vote recorded by a successful candidate, above the same party's 1.78% (0.29 quotas) in 2015. Animal Justice benefited from the stronger flows of preferences in 2019, passing three other parties to reach 2.74% (0.60 quotas) after preferences, better than its 2.12% after preferences in 2015. Previously the Shooters Party had been successful from 2.05% in 2003, while the Australian Democrats were unsuccessful with 1.78% in 2007, and Pauline Hanson unsuccessful with 1.92% in 2003 and 2.41% in 2011.

Page 11: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

5

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY - STATE-WIDE TOTALS Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Liberal Party 73 35 -2 1,456,010 31.99 -3.10 The Nationals 20 13 -4 436,806 9.60 -0.95 Total Coalition 93 48 -6 1,892,816 41.58 -4.05 Labor Party 65 32 +1 1,179,493 25.91 .. Country Labor 28 4 +1 336,650 7.40 -0.77 Total Labor 93 36 +2 1,516,143 33.31 -0.76 The Greens 93 3 .. 435,401 9.57 -0.72 Independent 50 3 +1 216,510 4.76 +0.90 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 25 3 +3 157,636 3.46 +3.46 Sustainable Australia 55 .. .. 69,831 1.53 +1.53 Keep Sydney Open 42 .. .. 69,076 1.52 +1.52 Animal Justice Party 48 .. .. 68,802 1.51 +1.39 Pauline Hanson's One Nation 12 .. .. 49,948 1.10 +1.10 Christian Democratic Party 18 .. .. 36,575 0.80 -2.43 Australian Conservatives 19 .. .. 22,590 0.50 +0.50 Liberal Democratic Party 10 .. .. 10,530 0.23 +0.22 Small Business Party 4 .. .. 3,355 0.07 +0.07 Socialist Alliance 2 .. .. 1,208 0.03 .. Flux 2 .. .. 698 0.02 +0.02 #Australia First 1 .. .. 453 0.01 -0.01 Unaffiliated candidates 1 .. .. 314 0.01 -0.13 Others .. .. .. .. 0.00 -2.61 Formal 568 93 .. 4,551,886 96.54 -0.02 Informal 162,897 3.46 +0.02 Total Votes 4,714,783 89.43 -1.05 Enrolment 5,271,775 Note: Change column shows change of seats compared to 2015 election. Taking account of the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections, the changes would be Liberal (-1), National (-3), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (+2) with Independents unchanged. If you take account of the Coalition's 2019 Wagga Wagga candidate being a National rather than a Liberal, the change in vote shares would be Liberal (-2.82) and National (-1.23). Minor Party Votes – The percentage vote for minor parties in seats they contested were - Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 12.8% (25 seats contested), Pauline Hanson's One Nation 8.3% (12 seats), Christian Democrats 4.2% (18), Keep Sydney Open 3.4% (42), Animal Justice Party 2.9% (48), Sustainable Australia 2.6% (55), Australian Conservatives 2.4% (19) and Liberal Democrats 2.2% (10). Seats Changing Party Status (6) Labor gain from Liberal (1) Coogee Labor gain from National (1) Lismore Shooters, Fishers and Farmers gain from National (3) Barwon

Murray Orange (gained at 2016 by-election)

Independent gain from Liberal (1) Wagga Wagga (gained at 2018 By-election)

Page 12: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

6

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE BY DISTRICT

Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District L/NP ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH Votes Votes Roll Albury 27039 11840 4411 .. .. 4342 2393 50025 57605 Auburn 16094 22396 3357 .. .. 2995 2875 47717 55340 Ballina 18550 12457 15895 .. .. 3225 1359 51486 59329 Balmain 9875 14227 21065 .. .. 4132 781 50080 57741 Bankstown 13293 23897 2684 .. .. 3856 2867 46597 54108 Barwon 14027 9661 1395 15218 .. 5873 1701 47875 55154 Bathurst 28030 10438 2815 7498 .. 2052 1574 52407 56841 Baulkham Hills 30040 11600 3937 .. .. 4733 1302 51612 55564 Bega 24796 15508 4945 3275 .. 2177 1472 52173 58131 Blacktown 11668 25618 2968 .. 3368 3287 1942 48851 55013 Blue Mountains 13982 23022 5993 .. .. 6231 1250 50478 54885 Cabramatta 7018 23616 2384 .. .. 14325 2102 49445 54991 Camden 26999 18886 2359 .. 8330 6198 2520 65292 70392 Campbelltown 12069 24476 2339 .. .. 6642 2411 47937 54579 Canterbury 15376 24674 6146 .. .. 2560 2247 51003 57164 Castle Hill 36047 10455 4116 .. .. 1953 1354 53925 58240 Cessnock 12081 27122 4010 .. .. 6568 2643 52424 58268 Charlestown 16220 24590 5539 .. .. 2525 1787 50661 55720 Clarence 22965 10342 3914 8308 .. 3826 1657 51012 56859 Coffs Harbour 20268 8371 3090 3405 .. 12199 1846 49179 55338 Coogee 18937 15819 6687 433 .. 4159 879 46914 55037 Cootamundra 30206 7302 1380 7447 .. 1113 1319 48767 53474 Cronulla 32484 11866 3789 .. .. 3002 1321 52462 57275 Davidson 32023 6645 6652 .. .. 3849 1021 50190 54940 Drummoyne 27922 12012 4461 .. .. 3069 1102 48566 53969 Dubbo 18131 7151 1771 6636 .. 14766 1900 50355 55962 East Hills 19963 19152 2298 .. .. 6210 2292 49915 55144 Epping 27506 13652 5143 .. .. 2923 1145 50369 54489 Fairfield 11231 25225 3362 .. .. 4257 2719 46794 53676 Gosford 17529 21505 4405 2307 .. 2891 1788 50425 56435 Goulburn 19957 15355 4100 4847 4723 2075 1616 52673 57564 Granville 16522 22012 1638 .. .. 4019 2154 46345 53545 Hawkesbury 25127 9325 3102 4385 .. 7002 1972 50913 55753 Heathcote 25057 17842 4604 1959 .. 1872 1424 52758 56158 Heffron 13863 20409 9565 .. .. 6173 1292 51302 60576 Holsworthy 21481 18152 2191 .. 3905 2515 2256 50500 56367 Hornsby 26269 9683 6131 .. 2250 5670 1268 51271 55175 Keira 13736 27884 8248 .. .. 2068 1567 53503 58824 Kiama 26230 13803 5815 .. .. 3098 1603 50549 55490 Kogarah 19185 19254 2950 .. 2790 1397 2120 47696 53226 Ku-ring-gai 29369 8891 6315 .. .. 4155 1101 49831 54441 Lake Macquarie 7742 10735 2517 .. .. 29088 1827 51909 57686 Lakemba 10031 27528 2041 .. .. 5015 2916 47531 55253 Lane Cove 26388 10281 5441 .. .. 8831 1081 52022 57185 Lismore 19104 12328 11693 .. .. 5020 1508 49653 56105 Liverpool 12692 26141 2421 .. .. 5781 2700 49735 57573 Londonderry 20066 25809 2650 .. .. 4161 2749 55435 63842 Macquarie Fields 15057 27942 2247 .. .. 7543 2558 55347 61782 Maitland 14137 23465 3428 2842 5785 3393 2146 55196 60292 Manly 25418 8619 9137 .. .. 5142 1061 49377 55672 Maroubra 15329 20243 3517 .. .. 9189 1364 49642 56169 Miranda 26417 13213 3333 .. 3461 2642 1336 50402 54949 Monaro 25868 13431 3913 3848 .. 2388 1310 50758 56951 Mount Druitt 13209 26869 3231 .. .. 3722 2413 49444 56357 Mulgoa 29379 17270 2897 .. .. 1829 2213 53588 58259 Murray 16636 4134 1238 18305 3949 2971 1889 49122 55784

Page 13: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

7

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE BY DISTRICT

Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District L/NP ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH Votes Votes Roll Myall Lakes 24367 14691 2797 3518 .. 4942 1715 52030 57689 Newcastle 13224 23231 8281 .. .. 5583 1703 52022 59126 Newtown 6730 12202 21326 .. .. 6054 1004 47316 56412 North Shore 22261 5900 5393 .. .. 14220 719 48493 55332 Northern Tablelands 35766 5503 2793 4616 .. .. 979 49657 55371 Oatley 26311 15767 3080 797 2165 .. 1481 49601 53780 Orange 12987 5126 2615 24718 .. 4849 1811 52106 56939 Oxley 25115 9904 6179 5644 .. 1698 1761 50301 57131 Parramatta 26322 14736 3637 .. .. 4033 1621 50349 57023 Penrith 19561 17415 2454 1276 3510 4637 1819 50672 56565 Pittwater 28170 6168 7518 .. .. 7263 1346 50465 56138 Port Macquarie 33538 12220 4119 .. .. 2858 1971 54706 59974 Port Stephens 19818 23896 1885 .. .. 4043 1790 51432 56476 Prospect 15851 24235 2345 .. .. 4414 2242 49087 54422 Riverstone 28956 21328 3226 .. .. .. 1612 55122 59899 Rockdale 16118 21945 3829 .. .. 6000 2318 50210 56421 Ryde 24045 14750 4206 .. .. 5491 1351 49843 54881 Seven Hills 23548 16909 3038 .. .. 3482 1572 48549 53676 Shellharbour 14924 31532 5158 .. .. 3226 2783 57623 62909 South Coast 27143 15256 6481 .. .. .. 2007 50887 56922 Strathfield 17972 20475 4061 .. .. 3709 1437 47654 53451 Summer Hill 11380 22639 10055 .. .. 4711 1451 50236 56545 Swansea 16123 24371 3428 .. .. 5270 2224 51416 56681 Sydney 13089 6370 4124 .. .. 19618 807 44008 55131 Tamworth 27855 4133 1367 8180 .. 9043 1136 51714 56751 Terrigal 26580 13134 5073 .. .. 5497 1682 51966 57504 The Entrance 18145 20744 3691 .. .. 5506 2130 50216 56363 Tweed 22185 14449 6461 .. .. 3566 1937 48598 56940 Upper Hunter 16492 13900 2320 10697 .. 5116 1701 50226 55471 Vaucluse 26397 5881 6494 .. .. 7251 856 46879 56448 Wagga Wagga 12635 7141 1346 4242 .. 23214 1607 50185 55688 Wakehurst 28704 8600 4867 .. .. 6541 1537 50249 55814 Wallsend 10458 31998 4756 .. .. 4139 1851 53202 59050 Willoughby 27292 6875 5342 .. .. 8348 934 48791 54508 Wollondilly 19351 7723 2847 3235 5712 12121 1934 52923 57397 Wollongong 11427 25776 6583 .. .. 7649 2400 53835 60829 Wyong 15338 25077 4553 .. .. 3153 2655 50776 57477 TOTAL 1892816 1516143 435401 157636 49948 499942 162897 4714783 5271775 Underlining indicate seats contested by the National Party for the Liberal/National Coalition, and by Country Labor for the Australian Labor Party.

Page 14: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

8

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY DISTRICT

Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District L/NP ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH Pct Turnout Albury 56.8 24.9 9.3 .. .. 9.1 4.8 86.8 Auburn 35.9 49.9 7.5 .. .. 6.7 6.0 86.2 Ballina 37.0 24.9 31.7 .. .. 6.4 2.6 86.8 Balmain 20.0 28.9 42.7 .. .. 8.4 1.6 86.7 Bankstown 30.4 54.6 6.1 .. .. 8.8 6.2 86.1 Barwon 30.4 20.9 3.0 33.0 .. 12.7 3.6 86.8 Bathurst 55.1 20.5 5.5 14.8 .. 4.0 3.0 92.2 Baulkham Hills 59.7 23.1 7.8 .. .. 9.4 2.5 92.9 Bega 48.9 30.6 9.8 6.5 .. 4.3 2.8 89.8 Blacktown 24.9 54.6 6.3 .. 7.2 7.0 4.0 88.8 Blue Mountains 28.4 46.8 12.2 .. .. 12.7 2.5 92.0 Cabramatta 14.8 49.9 5.0 .. .. 30.3 4.3 89.9 Camden 43.0 30.1 3.8 .. 13.3 9.9 3.9 92.8 Campbelltown 26.5 53.8 5.1 .. .. 14.6 5.0 87.8 Canterbury 31.5 50.6 12.6 .. .. 5.3 4.4 89.2 Castle Hill 68.6 19.9 7.8 .. .. 3.7 2.5 92.6 Cessnock 24.3 54.5 8.1 .. .. 13.2 5.0 90.0 Charlestown 33.2 50.3 11.3 .. .. 5.2 3.5 90.9 Clarence 46.5 21.0 7.9 16.8 .. 7.8 3.2 89.7 Coffs Harbour 42.8 17.7 6.5 7.2 .. 25.8 3.8 88.9 Coogee 41.1 34.4 14.5 0.9 .. 9.0 1.9 85.2 Cootamundra 63.7 15.4 2.9 15.7 .. 2.3 2.7 91.2 Cronulla 63.5 23.2 7.4 .. .. 5.9 2.5 91.6 Davidson 65.1 13.5 13.5 .. .. 7.8 2.0 91.4 Drummoyne 58.8 25.3 9.4 .. .. 6.5 2.3 90.0 Dubbo 37.4 14.8 3.7 13.7 .. 30.5 3.8 90.0 East Hills 41.9 40.2 4.8 .. .. 13.0 4.6 90.5 Epping 55.9 27.7 10.4 .. .. 5.9 2.3 92.4 Fairfield 25.5 57.2 7.6 .. .. 9.7 5.8 87.2 Gosford 36.0 44.2 9.1 4.7 .. 5.9 3.5 89.4 Goulburn 39.1 30.1 8.0 9.5 9.3 4.1 3.1 91.5 Granville 37.4 49.8 3.7 .. .. 9.1 4.6 86.6 Hawkesbury 51.3 19.1 6.3 9.0 .. 14.3 3.9 91.3 Heathcote 48.8 34.8 9.0 3.8 .. 3.6 2.7 93.9 Heffron 27.7 40.8 19.1 .. .. 12.3 2.5 84.7 Holsworthy 44.5 37.6 4.5 .. 8.1 5.2 4.5 89.6 Hornsby 52.5 19.4 12.3 .. 4.5 11.3 2.5 92.9 Keira 26.4 53.7 15.9 .. .. 4.0 2.9 91.0 Kiama 53.6 28.2 11.9 .. .. 6.3 3.2 91.1 Kogarah 42.1 42.2 6.5 .. 6.1 3.1 4.4 89.6 Ku-ring-gai 60.3 18.2 13.0 .. .. 8.5 2.2 91.5 Lake Macquarie 15.5 21.4 5.0 .. .. 58.1 3.5 90.0 Lakemba 22.5 61.7 4.6 .. .. 11.2 6.1 86.0 Lane Cove 51.8 20.2 10.7 .. .. 17.3 2.1 91.0 Lismore 39.7 25.6 24.3 .. .. 10.4 3.0 88.5 Liverpool 27.0 55.6 5.1 .. .. 12.3 5.4 86.4 Londonderry 38.1 49.0 5.0 .. .. 7.9 5.0 86.8 Macquarie Fields 28.5 52.9 4.3 .. .. 14.3 4.6 89.6 Maitland 26.6 44.2 6.5 5.4 10.9 6.4 3.9 91.5 Manly 52.6 17.8 18.9 .. .. 10.6 2.1 88.7 Maroubra 31.8 41.9 7.3 .. .. 19.0 2.7 88.4 Miranda 53.8 26.9 6.8 .. 7.1 5.4 2.7 91.7 Monaro 52.3 27.2 7.9 7.8 .. 4.8 2.6 89.1 Mount Druitt 28.1 57.1 6.9 .. .. 7.9 4.9 87.7 Mulgoa 57.2 33.6 5.6 .. .. 3.6 4.1 92.0 Murray 35.2 8.8 2.6 38.8 8.4 6.3 3.8 88.1

Page 15: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

9

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY DISTRICT

Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District L/NP ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH Pct Turnout Myall Lakes 48.4 29.2 5.6 7.0 .. 9.8 3.3 90.2 Newcastle 26.3 46.2 16.5 .. .. 11.1 3.3 88.0 Newtown 14.5 26.3 46.0 .. .. 13.1 2.1 83.9 North Shore 46.6 12.3 11.3 .. .. 29.8 1.5 87.6 Northern Tablelands 73.5 11.3 5.7 9.5 .. .. 2.0 89.7 Oatley 54.7 32.8 6.4 1.7 4.5 .. 3.0 92.2 Orange 25.8 10.2 5.2 49.1 .. 9.6 3.5 91.5 Oxley 51.7 20.4 12.7 11.6 .. 3.5 3.5 88.0 Parramatta 54.0 30.2 7.5 .. .. 8.3 3.2 88.3 Penrith 40.0 35.6 5.0 2.6 7.2 9.5 3.6 89.6 Pittwater 57.4 12.6 15.3 .. .. 14.8 2.7 89.9 Port Macquarie 63.6 23.2 7.8 .. .. 5.4 3.6 91.2 Port Stephens 39.9 48.1 3.8 .. .. 8.1 3.5 91.1 Prospect 33.8 51.7 5.0 .. .. 9.4 4.6 90.2 Riverstone 54.1 39.9 6.0 .. .. .. 2.9 92.0 Rockdale 33.7 45.8 8.0 .. .. 12.5 4.6 89.0 Ryde 49.6 30.4 8.7 .. .. 11.3 2.7 90.8 Seven Hills 50.1 36.0 6.5 .. .. 7.4 3.2 90.4 Shellharbour 27.2 57.5 9.4 .. .. 5.9 4.8 91.6 South Coast 55.5 31.2 13.3 .. .. .. 3.9 89.4 Strathfield 38.9 44.3 8.8 .. .. 8.0 3.0 89.2 Summer Hill 23.3 46.4 20.6 .. .. 9.7 2.9 88.8 Swansea 32.8 49.5 7.0 .. .. 10.7 4.3 90.7 Sydney 30.3 14.7 9.5 .. .. 45.4 1.8 79.8 Tamworth 55.1 8.2 2.7 16.2 .. 17.9 2.2 91.1 Terrigal 52.9 26.1 10.1 .. .. 10.9 3.2 90.4 The Entrance 37.7 43.1 7.7 .. .. 11.5 4.2 89.1 Tweed 47.5 31.0 13.8 .. .. 7.6 4.0 85.3 Upper Hunter 34.0 28.6 4.8 22.0 .. 10.5 3.4 90.5 Vaucluse 57.4 12.8 14.1 .. .. 15.8 1.8 83.0 Wagga Wagga 26.0 14.7 2.8 8.7 .. 47.8 3.2 90.1 Wakehurst 58.9 17.7 10.0 .. .. 13.4 3.1 90.0 Wallsend 20.4 62.3 9.3 .. .. 8.1 3.5 90.1 Willoughby 57.0 14.4 11.2 .. .. 17.4 1.9 89.5 Wollondilly 38.0 15.1 5.6 6.3 11.2 23.8 3.7 92.2 Wollongong 22.2 50.1 12.8 .. .. 14.9 4.5 88.5 Wyong 31.9 52.1 9.5 .. .. 6.6 5.2 88.3 TOTAL 41.6 33.3 9.6 3.5 1.1 11.0 3.5 89.4 Underlining indicate seats contested by the National Party for the Liberal/National Coalition, and by Country Labor for the Australian Labor Party.

Page 16: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

10

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT RESULTS Albury Roll 57605

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McNair KSO 1007 2.1 +2.1 Hamilton SAP 3335 7.0 +7.0 Clancy LIB 27039 56.8 -1.1 Muirhead CLR 11840 24.9 -6.8 Moss GRN 4411 9.3 +3.6 .... OTH 0.0 -4.9

Final Count Clancy LIB 28258 66.0 +2.7 Muirhead CLR 14572 34.0 -2.7 Exhausted 4802 10.1

Formal 47632 95.2 -1.3 Informal 2393 4.8 +1.3 Total / Turnout 50025 86.8 Note: Liberal MP Greg Aplin retired. Auburn Roll 55340

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Voltz + ALP 22396 49.9 +5.4 Castle GRN 3357 7.5 +1.4 Kang LIB 16094 35.9 +0.6 Lee KSO 1360 3.0 +3.0 Ahern IND 1635 3.6 +3.6 .... CDP 0.0 -4.2 .... OTH 0.0 -9.9

Final Count Voltz + ALP 24419 59.1 +3.2 Kang LIB 16876 40.9 -3.2 Exhausted 3547 7.9

Formal 44842 94.0 -0.5 Informal 2875 6.0 +0.5 Total / Turnout 47717 86.2 Note: MP and former Labor Leader Luke Foley did not contest the election. New Labor candidate Lynda Voltz resigned from Legislative Council to contest this seat.

Ballina Roll 59329

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Wright KSO 850 1.7 +1.7 Blasonato AJP 1256 2.5 +2.5 Pugh CLR 12457 24.9 +0.1 Smith * GRN 15895 31.7 +4.7 McDermott SAP 1119 2.2 +2.2 Franklin + NAT 18550 37.0 +0.4 .... OTH 0.0 -11.6

Final Count Smith * GRN 24645 55.4 +2.3 Franklin + NAT 19824 44.6 -2.3 Exhausted 5658 11.3

2-Party Preferred Pugh CLR 23657 54.3 +1.3 Franklin + NAT 19904 45.7 -1.3 Exhausted 6566 13.1

Formal 50127 97.4 -0.3 Informal 1359 2.6 +0.3 Total / Turnout 51486 86.8 Note: National candidate Ben Franklin resigned from the Legislative Council to contest this seat. He was re-appointed to the Council after the election. Balmain Roll 57741

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Finlayson AJP 1103 2.2 +0.3 Leonetti KSO 2268 4.6 +4.6 Parker * GRN 21065 42.7 +5.3 Howse ALP 14227 28.9 -2.9 Dunnett SAP 761 1.5 +1.5 Zhang LIB 9875 20.0 -4.8 .... OTH 0.0 -4.0

Final Count Parker * GRN 24074 60.0 +5.3 Howse ALP 16037 40.0 -5.3 Exhausted 9188 18.6

2-Party Preferred Howse ALP 28127 70.5 +4.7 Zhang LIB 11795 29.5 -4.7 Exhausted 9377 19.0

Formal 49299 98.4 +0.5 Informal 781 1.6 -0.5 Total / Turnout 50080 86.7

Page 17: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

11

Bankstown Roll 54108

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Abu-Samen IND 3856 8.8 +8.8 Zakhia LIB 13293 30.4 -0.9 Mihailuk * ALP 23897 54.6 -1.7 Rooney GRN 2684 6.1 +1.7 .... CDP 0.0 -4.2 .... OTH 0.0 -3.8

Final Count Zakhia LIB 14590 36.2 +0.2 Mihailuk * ALP 25735 63.8 -0.2 Exhausted 3405 7.8

Formal 43730 93.8 -0.1 Informal 2867 6.2 +0.1 Total / Turnout 46597 86.1 Barwon (SFF gain) Roll 55154

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Williams GRN 1395 3.0 -3.1 Naden IND 2565 5.6 +5.6 Turley CLR 9661 20.9 -3.1 Fleisher LDP 1571 3.4 +3.4 Butler SFF 15218 33.0 +33.0 Whyman IND 735 1.6 +1.6 McDonald-Pritchard SAP 444 1.0 +1.0 Alan AJP 558 1.2 +1.2 Schier NAT 14027 30.4 -18.7 .... (Boehm) IND 0.0 -16.9 .... OTH 0.0 -3.9

Final Count Turley CLR 0 0.0 -37.1 Butler SFF 19901 56.6 +56.6 Schier NAT 15258 43.4 -19.5 Exhausted 11015 23.9

2-Party Preferred Turley CLR 14904 47.5 +10.4 Schier NAT 16483 52.5 -10.4 Exhausted 14787 32.0

Formal 46174 96.4 -0.2 Informal 1701 3.6 +0.2 Total / Turnout 47875 86.8 Note: National MP Kevin Humphries retired.

Bathurst Roll 56841

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Toole * NAT 28030 55.1 -4.8 Hansen KSO 735 1.4 +1.4 Harvey GRN 2815 5.5 -3.6 Begg SAP 1317 2.6 +2.6 Riley CLR 10438 20.5 -6.8 May SFF 7498 14.8 +14.8 .... OTH 0.0 -3.6

Final Count Toole * NAT 30130 67.9 +2.1 Riley CLR 14242 32.1 -2.1 Exhausted 6461 12.7

Formal 50833 97.0 -0.4 Informal 1574 3.0 +0.4 Total / Turnout 52407 92.2 Baulkham Hills Roll 55564

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Boyd SAP 1380 2.7 +2.7 Newfield AJP 1485 3.0 +3.0 Tracey ALP 11600 23.1 +0.9 Elliott * LIB 30040 59.7 -4.8 Hockley GRN 3937 7.8 -0.1 Hall CDP 1868 3.7 +0.3 .... OTH 0.0 -2.0

Final Count Tracey ALP 14434 31.3 +3.1 Elliott * LIB 31658 68.7 -3.1 Exhausted 4218 8.4

Formal 50310 97.5 +0.2 Informal 1302 2.5 -0.2 Total / Turnout 51612 92.9 Bega Roll 58131

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Constance * LIB 24796 48.9 -4.3 Douglas GRN 4945 9.8 -0.4 Atkinson CLR 15508 30.6 -2.2 Shoobridge CON 806 1.6 +1.6 Anderson AJP 1371 2.7 +2.7 Thomas SFF 3275 6.5 +6.5 .... OTH 0.0 -3.8

Final Count Constance * LIB 26210 56.9 -1.3 Atkinson CLR 19830 43.1 +1.3 Exhausted 4661 9.2

Formal 50701 97.2 +0.1 Informal 1472 2.8 -0.1 Total / Turnout 52173 89.8

Page 18: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

12

Blacktown Roll 55013

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Green CDP 3287 7.0 +1.1 Bali * ALP 25618 54.6 +0.8 Batish ONP 3368 7.2 +7.2 Green LIB 11668 24.9 -5.9 Gibbs GRN 2968 6.3 .. .... OTH 0.0 -3.0

Final Count Bali * ALP 28020 67.7 +4.6 Green LIB 13348 32.3 -4.6 Exhausted 5541 11.8

Formal 46909 96.0 +0.7 Informal 1942 4.0 -0.7 Total / Turnout 48851 88.8 Note: See by-elections page 45. Blue Mountains Roll 54885

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Marschall SAP 1496 3.0 +3.0 Phillips CDP 1786 3.6 +0.5 Pigott KSO 941 1.9 +1.9 Liu GRN 5993 12.2 -4.1 Keightley AJP 2008 4.1 +4.1 Laffin LIB 13982 28.4 -7.1 Doyle * ALP 23022 46.8 +5.6 .... OTH 0.0 -4.0

Final Count Laffin LIB 15620 35.1 -6.7 Doyle * ALP 28834 64.9 +6.7 Exhausted 4774 9.7

Formal 49228 97.5 .. Informal 1250 2.5 .. Total / Turnout 50478 92.0

Cabramatta Roll 54991

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Vo IND 2075 4.4 +4.4 Dai Le IND 12250 25.9 +25.9 Lalich * ALP 23616 49.9 -10.0 Austin Le LIB 7018 14.8 -13.4 James GRN 2384 5.0 -0.1 .... CDP 0.0 -4.1 .... OTH 0.0 -2.6

Final Count Dai Le IND 14818 37.1 +37.1 Lalich * ALP 25089 62.9 -4.3 Austin Le LIB 0 0.0 -32.8 Exhausted 7436 15.7

2-Party Preferred Lalich * ALP 27375 75.5 +8.3 Austin Le LIB 8871 24.5 -8.3 Exhausted 11097 23.4

Formal 47343 95.7 +0.2 Informal 2102 4.3 -0.2 Total / Turnout 49445 89.9 Note: Dai Le had previously been the Liberal candidate for this seat at a 2008 by-election and at the 2011 state election. Camden Roll 70392

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Quinnell ALP 18886 30.1 +2.9 Sidgreaves LIB 26999 43.0 -18.3 Casey ONP 8330 13.3 +13.3 Simpson IND 4048 6.4 +6.4 Sajn SAP 718 1.1 +1.1 Stewart GRN 2359 3.8 -1.5 Aragona KSO 1432 2.3 +2.3 .... OTH 0.0 -6.1

Final Count Quinnell ALP 21796 42.4 +10.7 Sidgreaves LIB 29556 57.6 -10.7 Exhausted 11420 18.2

Formal 62772 96.1 -0.3 Informal 2520 3.9 +0.3 Total / Turnout 65292 92.8 Note: Liberal MP Chris Patterson retired.

Page 19: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

13

Campbelltown Roll 54579

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count O'Sullivan KSO 1723 3.8 +3.8 Warren * ALP 24476 53.8 +3.5 Stellino AJP 1822 4.0 +4.0 Gent CDP 2001 4.4 +0.7 Clark SAP 1096 2.4 +2.4 Rivera GRN 2339 5.1 -0.4 Munro LIB 12069 26.5 -11.4 .... OTH 0.0 -2.6

Final Count Warren * ALP 27026 67.0 +9.7 Munro LIB 13305 33.0 -9.7 Exhausted 5195 11.4

Formal 45526 95.0 -0.8 Informal 2411 5.0 +0.8 Total / Turnout 47937 87.8 Canterbury Roll 57164

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Harrison LIB 15376 31.5 +4.5 Eisler GRN 6146 12.6 +2.9 Figueira CDP 2560 5.3 -4.9 Cotsis * ALP 24674 50.6 +0.4 .... OTH 0.0 -2.9

Final Count Harrison LIB 16634 37.0 +2.7 Cotsis * ALP 28358 63.0 -2.7 Exhausted 3764 7.7

Formal 48756 95.6 +0.4 Informal 2247 4.4 -0.4 Total / Turnout 51003 89.2 Note: See by-elections page 45. Castle Hill Roll 58240

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Kuipers SAP 1953 3.7 +3.7 Field GRN 4116 7.8 +0.9 Williams * LIB 36047 68.6 -2.4 Ager ALP 10455 19.9 +3.9 .... OTH 0.0 -6.1

Final Count Williams * LIB 37043 74.7 -4.7 Ager ALP 12561 25.3 +4.7 Exhausted 2967 5.6

Formal 52571 97.5 +0.1 Informal 1354 2.5 -0.1 Total / Turnout 53925 92.6

Cessnock Roll 58268

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Parker AJP 3949 7.9 +7.9 Murray GRN 4010 8.1 -0.4 Barr * CLR 27122 54.5 -7.7 Angus NAT 12081 24.3 +1.0 Russell SAP 2619 5.3 +5.3 .... OTH 0.0 -6.1

Final Count Barr * CLR 30229 69.3 -2.7 Angus NAT 13364 30.7 +2.7 Exhausted 6188 12.4

Formal 49781 95.0 -0.6 Informal 2643 5.0 +0.6 Total / Turnout 52424 90.0 Charlestown Roll 55720

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Barrie LIB 16220 33.2 +2.9 Doyle GRN 5539 11.3 +0.3 Turner AJP 2525 5.2 +5.2 Harrison * ALP 24590 50.3 +2.1 .... OTH 0.0 -10.5

Final Count Barrie LIB 17069 37.6 +0.5 Harrison * ALP 28270 62.4 -0.5 Exhausted 3535 7.2

Formal 48874 96.5 +0.4 Informal 1787 3.5 -0.4 Total / Turnout 50661 90.9 Clarence Roll 56859

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Novak IND 3038 6.2 +1.5 Clancy GRN 3914 7.9 -1.2 Gulaptis * NAT 22965 46.5 -3.9 Cansdell SFF 8308 16.8 +16.8 Gilbert CLR 10342 21.0 -7.5 Kotis SAP 788 1.6 +1.6 .... OTH 0.0 -7.3

Final Count Gulaptis * NAT 25985 64.5 +4.8 Gilbert CLR 14322 35.5 -4.8 Exhausted 9048 18.3

Formal 49355 96.8 -0.1 Informal 1657 3.2 +0.1 Total / Turnout 51012 89.7 Note: SFF candidate Steve Cansdell was a former National MP for Clarence 2003-2011.

Page 20: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

14

Coffs Harbour Roll 55338

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Renet LDP 1542 3.3 +3.3 Marchant AJP 1278 2.7 +2.7 Townley IND 8247 17.4 +17.4 Singh NAT 20268 42.8 -11.8 Leonard IND 1132 2.4 +2.4 Judge CLR 8371 17.7 -8.2 Davidson SFF 3405 7.2 +7.2 Cassell GRN 3090 6.5 -7.0 .... CDP 0.0 -4.3 .... OTH 0.0 -1.6

Final Count Townley IND 14730 39.7 +39.7 Singh NAT 22375 60.3 -4.0 Judge CLR 0 0.0 -35.7 Exhausted 10228 21.6

2-Party Preferred Singh NAT 22799 60.8 -3.5 Judge CLR 14717 39.2 +3.5 Exhausted 9817 20.7

Formal 47333 96.2 -0.5 Informal 1846 3.8 +0.5 Total / Turnout 49179 88.9 Note: National MP Andrew Fraser retired. Coogee (ALP gain) Roll 55037

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count O'Neill ALP 15819 34.4 +1.8 Shurey GRN 6687 14.5 -4.1 Garrod AJP 804 1.7 +1.7 Notley-Smith * LIB 18937 41.1 -5.4 Turnbull SFF 433 0.9 +0.9 O'Donoghue KSO 2232 4.8 +4.8 Murray SAP 650 1.4 +1.4 O'Brien SBP 473 1.0 +1.0 .... OTH 0.0 -2.3

Final Count O'Neill ALP 21510 51.6 +4.6 Notley-Smith * LIB 20141 48.4 -4.6 Exhausted 4384 9.5

Formal 46035 98.1 +0.5 Informal 879 1.9 -0.5 Total / Turnout 46914 85.2

Cootamundra Roll 53474

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Passlow GRN 1380 2.9 -0.6 Saleam AFP 453 1.0 +1.0 Cooke * NAT 30206 63.7 -2.2 Douglass CLR 7302 15.4 -10.6 Costello SAP 660 1.4 +1.4 Stadtmiller SFF 7447 15.7 +15.7 .... OTH 0.0 -4.6

Final Count Cooke * NAT 32504 77.1 +6.6 Douglass CLR 9673 22.9 -6.6 Exhausted 5271 11.1

Formal 47448 97.3 .. Informal 1319 2.7 .. Total / Turnout 48767 91.2 Note: See by-elections page 45. Compared to the by-election, the above result represented a 16.6% swing to the National Party, the first preference changes being National +17.5, Labor -8.6, SFF -7.6. Cronulla Roll 57275

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Speakman * LIB 32484 63.5 +1.6 Moran SAP 1264 2.5 +2.5 Doig GRN 3789 7.4 -1.7 Burriel KSO 1738 3.4 +3.4 Farhart ALP 11866 23.2 +1.3 .... CDP 0.0 -5.1 .... OTH 0.0 -1.9

Final Count Speakman * LIB 33349 69.6 -1.3 Farhart ALP 14556 30.4 +1.3 Exhausted 3236 6.3

Formal 51141 97.5 +0.5 Informal 1321 2.5 -0.5 Total / Turnout 52462 91.6

Page 21: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

15

Davidson Roll 54940

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Shteyman KSO 1984 4.0 +4.0 Molloy SAP 1865 3.8 +3.8 O'Dea * LIB 32023 65.1 -4.5 Von Bornemann ALP 6645 13.5 +0.9 Davis GRN 6652 13.5 +0.1 .... OTH 0.0 -4.2

Final Count O'Dea * LIB 33440 75.2 -3.6 Davis GRN 11004 24.8 +3.6 Exhausted 4725 9.6

2-Party Preferred O'Dea * LIB 33750 75.5 -3.5 Von Bornemann ALP 10967 24.5 +3.5 Exhausted 4452 9.1

Formal 49169 98.0 +0.2 Informal 1021 2.0 -0.2 Total / Turnout 50190 91.4 Drummoyne Roll 53969

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Saidi AJP 1288 2.7 +2.7 Hore ALP 12012 25.3 +1.6 Roberts KSO 1781 3.8 +3.8 Jago GRN 4461 9.4 -1.6 Sidoti * LIB 27922 58.8 -2.3 .... OTH 0.0 -4.2

Final Count Hore ALP 15552 35.0 +3.8 Sidoti * LIB 28878 65.0 -3.8 Exhausted 3034 6.4

Formal 47464 97.7 +0.2 Informal 1102 2.3 -0.2 Total / Turnout 48566 90.0

Dubbo Roll 55962

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Pryor GRN 1771 3.7 -0.8 Dickerson IND 13771 28.4 +28.4 Quealy SFF 6636 13.7 +13.7 Saunders NAT 18131 37.4 -23.0 Lawrence CLR 7151 14.8 -8.7 Cotterill FLX 314 0.6 +0.6 Salter CON 681 1.4 +1.4 .... OTH 0.0 -11.6

Final Count Dickerson IND 18370 48.0 +48.0 Saunders NAT 19920 52.0 -18.4 Lawrence CLR 0 0.0 -29.6 Exhausted 10165 21.0

2-Party Preferred Saunders NAT 23070 68.2 -2.3 Lawrence CLR 10778 31.8 +2.3 Exhausted 14607 30.1

Formal 48455 96.2 -0.5 Informal 1900 3.8 +0.5 Total / Turnout 50355 90.0 Note: MP and former National Party Leader Troy Grant retired. East Hills Roll 55144

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Maddock KSO 1773 3.7 +3.7 Virago GRN 2298 4.8 -1.8 Butt CDP 2159 4.5 -0.3 Lindsay LIB 19963 41.9 -2.3 Barnes AJP 932 2.0 +2.0 Murphy ALP 19152 40.2 -1.8 Brogan IND 1346 2.8 +2.8 .... OTH 0.0 -2.3

Final Count Lindsay LIB 21646 50.5 +0.1 Murphy ALP 21217 49.5 -0.1 Exhausted 4760 10.0

Formal 47623 95.4 -0.3 Informal 2292 4.6 +0.3 Total / Turnout 49915 90.5 Note: Liberal MP Glenn Brookes retired.

Page 22: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

16

Epping Roll 54489

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Waterson IND 1544 3.1 +3.1 Lyndon KSO 1379 2.8 +2.8 Mascarenhas ALP 13652 27.7 +8.0 Perrottet * LIB 27506 55.9 +1.5 Margan GRN 5143 10.4 -3.7 .... OTH 0.0 -11.8

Final Count Mascarenhas ALP 17238 37.6 +3.8 Perrottet * LIB 28584 62.4 -3.8 Exhausted 3402 6.9

Formal 49224 97.7 +0.2 Informal 1145 2.3 -0.2 Total / Turnout 50369 92.4 Note: Dominic Perrottet represented Hawkesbury in the previous parliament. Epping MP Damien Tudehope contested and was elected to the Legislative Council. Fairfield Roll 53676

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Georgis CDP 4257 9.7 -0.1 Youkhana LIB 11231 25.5 +1.4 O'Neill GRN 3362 7.6 +2.4 Zangari * ALP 25225 57.2 +3.5 .... OTH 0.0 -7.1

Final Count Youkhana LIB 12675 32.1 -0.1 Zangari * ALP 26848 67.9 +0.1 Exhausted 4552 10.3

Formal 44075 94.2 -0.4 Informal 2719 5.8 +0.4 Total / Turnout 46794 87.2 Gosford Roll 56435

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Morris GRN 4405 9.1 +0.1 Murphy AJP 1678 3.5 +3.5 Dengate LIB 17529 36.0 -6.5 Freeman SFF 2307 4.7 +4.7 Singer SAP 1213 2.5 +2.5 Tesch * ALP 21505 44.2 +5.6 .... OTH 0.0 -9.8

Final Count Dengate LIB 18691 42.7 -7.0 Tesch * ALP 25048 57.3 +7.0 Exhausted 4898 10.1

Formal 48637 96.5 -0.4 Informal 1788 3.5 +0.4 Total / Turnout 50425 89.4 Note: See by-elections page 45. Compared to the 2017 by-election the result was 5.2% swing against Labor.

Goulburn Roll 57564

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Ecker GRN 4100 8.0 +0.2 Wood SFF 4847 9.5 +9.5 Tuckerman LIB 19957 39.1 -9.7 Keenan AJP 1247 2.4 +2.4 Stephens CLR 15355 30.1 -4.2 McCrae LDP 828 1.6 +1.6 Orchard ONP 4723 9.3 +9.3 .... OTH 0.0 -9.1

Final Count Tuckerman LIB 22359 53.5 -3.1 Stephens CLR 19398 46.5 +3.1 Exhausted 9300 18.2

Formal 51057 96.9 -0.3 Informal 1616 3.1 +0.3 Total / Turnout 52673 91.5 Note: Liberal MP Pru Goward retired. Granville Roll 53545

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Finn * ALP 22012 49.8 +8.8 Lopez IND 682 1.5 -0.4 Harris - 314 0.7 +0.7 Charaf IND 740 1.7 +1.7 Prociv GRN 1638 3.7 -1.7 Piper CDP 1631 3.7 -8.7 Laxmanalal AJP 652 1.5 +1.5 Issa LIB 16522 37.4 -0.3 .... OTH 0.0 -1.6

Final Count Finn * ALP 23629 57.6 +5.5 Issa LIB 17365 42.4 -5.5 Exhausted 3197 7.2

Formal 44191 95.4 .. Informal 2154 4.6 .. Total / Turnout 46345 86.6

Page 23: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

17

Hawkesbury Roll 55753

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Carrey SAP 1217 2.5 +2.5 Djuric SFF 4385 9.0 +9.0 Wheeler GRN 3102 6.3 -1.2 Dogramaci IND 1312 2.7 +2.7 Coogans AJP 1394 2.8 +2.8 Reynolds ALP 9325 19.1 -3.4 Costi KSO 789 1.6 +1.6 Preston LIB 25127 51.3 -5.3 Bowyer IND 2290 4.7 +4.7 .... OTH 0.0 -13.4

Final Count Reynolds ALP 12982 32.5 +0.3 Preston LIB 26935 67.5 -0.3 Exhausted 9024 18.4

Formal 48941 96.1 +0.3 Informal 1972 3.9 -0.3 Total / Turnout 50913 91.3 Note: Vacant seat after Liberal MP Dominic Perrottet moved to contest Epping. Heathcote Roll 56158

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Shakespeare GRN 4604 9.0 -0.3 Evans * LIB 25057 48.8 -1.2 Aspey AJP 1872 3.6 +3.6 McManus SFF 1959 3.8 +3.8 Stuart ALP 17842 34.8 +2.1 .... OTH 0.0 -8.1

Final Count Evans * LIB 26174 55.0 -2.6 Stuart ALP 21450 45.0 +2.6 Exhausted 3710 7.2

Formal 51334 97.3 +0.4 Informal 1424 2.7 -0.4 Total / Turnout 52758 93.9

Heffron Roll 60576

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Ryan KSO 4575 9.1 +9.1 Andruska LIB 13863 27.7 -2.0 Hoenig * ALP 20409 40.8 -3.5 Chapple GRN 9565 19.1 -2.0 Dello-Iacovo AJP 1598 3.2 +3.2 .... OTH 0.0 -4.9

Final Count Andruska LIB 15462 34.9 -1.0 Hoenig * ALP 28874 65.1 +1.0 Exhausted 5674 11.3

Formal 50010 97.5 +0.7 Informal 1292 2.5 -0.7 Total / Turnout 51302 84.7 Holsworthy Roll 56367

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Constable AJP 1901 3.9 +3.9 Kaliyanda ALP 18152 37.6 +1.2 Gibbons * LIB 21481 44.5 -5.0 Kerle GRN 2191 4.5 .. Byrne ONP 3905 8.1 +8.1 Barber LDP 614 1.3 +1.3 .... OTH 0.0 -9.5

Final Count Kaliyanda ALP 20042 46.7 +3.4 Gibbons * LIB 22861 53.3 -3.4 Exhausted 5341 11.1

Formal 48244 95.5 +0.5 Informal 2256 4.5 -0.5 Total / Turnout 50500 89.6

Page 24: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

18

Hornsby Roll 55175

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Gray KSO 1192 2.4 +2.4 Kean * LIB 26269 52.5 -5.8 Gallagher IND 2287 4.6 -0.2 Eros ONP 2250 4.5 +4.5 Nicita GRN 6131 12.3 -1.6 Murray IND 463 0.9 +0.9 Thomas SAP 835 1.7 +1.7 Isaac CON 893 1.8 +1.8 Gompertz ALP 9683 19.4 .. .... OTH 0.0 -3.6

Final Count Kean * LIB 28700 66.3 -2.6 Gompertz ALP 14585 33.7 +2.6 Exhausted 6718 13.4

Formal 50003 97.5 -0.2 Informal 1268 2.5 +0.2 Total / Turnout 51271 92.9 Keira Roll 58824

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Park * ALP 27884 53.7 +0.5 Atlee LIB 13736 26.4 -1.2 Gill SAP 2068 4.0 +4.0 Osborn GRN 8248 15.9 +1.8 .... OTH 0.0 -5.2

Final Count Park * ALP 33744 69.7 +2.4 Atlee LIB 14635 30.3 -2.4 Exhausted 3557 6.8

Formal 51936 97.1 -0.1 Informal 1567 2.9 +0.1 Total / Turnout 53503 91.0 Kiama Roll 55490

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Higgins CLR 13803 28.2 -3.9 Kadwell CDP 1671 3.4 +0.3 Whatman SAP 1427 2.9 +2.9 Ward * LIB 26230 53.6 +2.0 Digiglio GRN 5815 11.9 +0.8 .... OTH 0.0 -2.1

Final Count Higgins CLR 17167 38.0 -3.3 Ward * LIB 28016 62.0 +3.3 Exhausted 3763 7.7

Formal 48946 96.8 -0.4 Informal 1603 3.2 +0.4 Total / Turnout 50549 91.1

Kogarah Roll 53226

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Pollard ONP 2790 6.1 +6.1 Resman KSO 1397 3.1 +3.1 Werner GRN 2950 6.5 .. Minns * ALP 19254 42.2 -3.2 Yung LIB 19185 42.1 +7.9 .... UNI 0.0 -7.9 .... OTH 0.0 -6.1

Final Count Minns * ALP 21544 51.8 -5.1 Yung LIB 20073 48.2 +5.1 Exhausted 3959 8.7

Formal 45576 95.6 +0.1 Informal 2120 4.4 -0.1 Total / Turnout 47696 89.6 Ku-ring-gai Roll 54441

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Henskens * LIB 29369 60.3 -2.3 Strahan LDP 1053 2.2 +2.2 Blood KSO 1466 3.0 +3.0 Keeling ALP 8891 18.2 +1.9 Ferris SAP 1636 3.4 +3.4 Zhang GRN 6315 13.0 -2.8 .... OTH 0.0 -5.3

Final Count Henskens * LIB 31027 70.5 -2.5 Keeling ALP 12969 29.5 +2.5 Exhausted 4734 9.7

Formal 48730 97.8 +0.2 Informal 1101 2.2 -0.2 Total / Turnout 49831 91.5

Page 25: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

19

Lake Macquarie Roll 57686

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Grierson GRN 2517 5.0 +0.1 Taranto AJP 1481 3.0 +0.6 Piper * IND 26811 53.5 +11.1 Paterson LIB 7742 15.5 -1.3 Rolfe SAP 796 1.6 +1.6 Smith ALP 10735 21.4 -9.2 .... OTH 0.0 -2.7

Final Count Piper * IND 31164 72.1 +11.4 Smith ALP 12053 27.9 -11.4 Exhausted 6865 13.7

2-Party Preferred Paterson LIB 12180 42.6 +5.8 Smith ALP 16390 57.4 -5.8 Exhausted 21512 43.0

Formal 50082 96.5 -0.3 Informal 1827 3.5 +0.3 Total / Turnout 51909 90.0 Lakemba Roll 55253

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Dib * ALP 27528 61.7 +4.4 Najjar KSO 988 2.2 +2.2 de Bhaldraithe GRN 2041 4.6 -2.9 Schubert CDP 3170 7.1 -5.7 Bhuiyan LIB 10031 22.5 +1.8 Abou-Haidar AJP 857 1.9 +1.9 .... OTH 0.0 -1.7

Final Count Dib * ALP 29245 72.4 +0.9 Bhuiyan LIB 11136 27.6 -0.9 Exhausted 4234 9.5

Formal 44615 93.9 -0.6 Informal 2916 6.1 +0.6 Total / Turnout 47531 86.0

Lane Cove Roll 57185

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Quinn IND 5959 11.7 +11.7 Roberts * LIB 26388 51.8 -5.3 Fleming SAP 1036 2.0 +2.0 Zbik ALP 10281 20.2 .. Masse GRN 5441 10.7 -4.1 Spiteri KSO 1836 3.6 +3.6 .... OTH 0.0 -7.9

Final Count Roberts * LIB 29042 64.3 -3.5 Zbik ALP 16092 35.7 +3.5 Exhausted 5807 11.4

Formal 50941 97.9 +0.6 Informal 1081 2.1 -0.6 Total / Turnout 52022 91.0 Lismore (ALP gain) Roll 56105

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Curtin NAT 19104 39.7 -2.8 Waters AJP 1184 2.5 +0.9 Bennett IND 2530 5.3 +5.3 Saffin CLR 12328 25.6 .. Taylor SAP 742 1.5 +1.5 Higginson GRN 11693 24.3 -2.1 Collits CON 564 1.2 +1.2 .... OTH 0.0 -4.0

Final Count Curtin NAT 20710 48.7 -4.2 Saffin CLR 21856 51.3 +51.3 Higginson GRN 0 0.0 -47.1 Exhausted 5579 11.6

2-Party Preferred Curtin NAT 20710 48.7 -1.6 Saffin CLR 21856 51.3 +1.6 Exhausted 5579 11.6

Formal 48145 97.0 -0.8 Informal 1508 3.0 +0.8 Total / Turnout 49653 88.5 Note: National MP Thomas George retired. Note that at the 2015 election, the Greens finished second and Labor third. Labor's Janelle Saffin was a former NSW Legislative Councillor 1995-2003, and represented the local Federal seat of Page 2007-13.

Page 26: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

20

Liverpool Roll 57573

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Andjelkovic IND 3274 7.0 +7.0 Zadro LIB 12692 27.0 +3.3 Westerberg GRN 2421 5.1 +0.9 Novek CON 1251 2.7 +2.7 Lynch * ALP 26141 55.6 -4.6 Chand KSO 1256 2.7 +2.7 .... CDP 0.0 -8.0 .... OTH 0.0 -3.9

Final Count Zadro LIB 13945 33.3 +4.2 Lynch * ALP 27951 66.7 -4.2 Exhausted 5139 10.9

Formal 47035 94.6 -0.1 Informal 2700 5.4 +0.1 Total / Turnout 49735 86.4 Londonderry Roll 63842

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Hill LIB 20066 38.1 +2.1 Bowen SAP 2206 4.2 +4.2 Car * ALP 25809 49.0 -1.9 Pierce GRN 2650 5.0 +0.2 Modarelli CDP 1955 3.7 -1.4 .... OTH 0.0 -3.3

Final Count Hill LIB 21163 43.5 +2.4 Car * ALP 27442 56.5 -2.4 Exhausted 4081 7.7

Formal 52686 95.0 +0.4 Informal 2749 5.0 -0.4 Total / Turnout 55435 86.8 Macquarie Fields Roll 61782

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Singh KSO 2403 4.6 +4.6 Allen IND 3361 6.4 +3.1 Ahmed IND 1779 3.4 +3.4 Quazi LIB 15057 28.5 -8.0 Eagar-Deitz GRN 2247 4.3 +0.5 Chanthivong * ALP 27942 52.9 +2.1 .... OTH 0.0 -5.6

Final Count Quazi LIB 16301 35.2 -6.7 Chanthivong * ALP 29944 64.8 +6.7 Exhausted 6544 12.4

Formal 52789 95.4 -0.4 Informal 2558 4.6 +0.4 Total / Turnout 55347 89.6

Maitland Roll 60292

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Lawson KSO 1108 2.1 +2.1 Halliday LIB 14137 26.6 +1.8 Brown GRN 3428 6.5 +0.1 Ferguson SAP 831 1.6 +1.6 Turner ONP 5785 10.9 +10.9 Aitchison * CLR 23465 44.2 +1.8 Sarkis SFF 2842 5.4 +5.4 Johnson AJP 1454 2.7 +2.7 .... (Penfold) IND 0.0 -23.3 .... OTH 0.0 -3.1

Final Count Halliday LIB 15835 36.8 +0.6 Aitchison * CLR 27211 63.2 -0.6 Exhausted 10004 18.9

Formal 53050 96.1 -0.5 Informal 2146 3.9 +0.5 Total / Turnout 55196 91.5 Manly Roll 55672

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Paletto SAP 1502 3.1 +3.1 Glanville GRN 9137 18.9 +1.8 Griffin * LIB 25418 52.6 -15.4 Murray KSO 2456 5.1 +5.1 Phillips-Mason ALP 8619 17.8 +4.9 Paterson AJP 1184 2.5 +2.5 .... OTH 0.0 -2.0

Final Count Glanville GRN 15706 37.1 +11.6 Griffin * LIB 26628 62.9 -11.6 Exhausted 5982 12.4

2-Party Preferred Griffin * LIB 27239 64.7 -13.7 Phillips-Mason ALP 14859 35.3 +13.7 Exhausted 6218 12.9

Formal 48316 97.9 .. Informal 1061 2.1 .. Total / Turnout 49377 88.7 Note: See by-elections page 45. Compared to the 2017 by-election, the Liberal first preference vote changed +8.8 and the swing to the Liberal Party after preferences was +2.4.

Page 27: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

21

Maroubra Roll 56169

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Campbell SAP 923 1.9 +1.9 Farmer LIB 15329 31.8 -3.6 Kos KSO 1242 2.6 +2.6 D'Souza IND 6492 13.4 +13.4 Simons CON 532 1.1 +1.1 Cruz GRN 3517 7.3 -1.5 Daley * ALP 20243 41.9 -10.5 .... OTH 0.0 -3.4

Final Count Farmer LIB 17069 41.5 +2.4 Daley * ALP 24026 58.5 -2.4 Exhausted 7183 14.9

Formal 48278 97.3 +0.1 Informal 1364 2.7 -0.1 Total / Turnout 49642 88.4 Miranda Roll 54949

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Cameron ONP 3461 7.1 +7.1 Hunt GRN 3333 6.8 -0.2 Petinos * LIB 26417 53.8 -1.4 Capsis CDP 1604 3.3 -1.1 Armstrong ALP 13213 26.9 -2.7 Hughes SAP 1038 2.1 +2.1 .... OTH 0.0 -3.8

Final Count Petinos * LIB 28414 64.6 +1.6 Armstrong ALP 15593 35.4 -1.6 Exhausted 5059 10.3

Formal 49066 97.3 +0.7 Informal 1336 2.7 -0.7 Total / Turnout 50402 91.7 Monaro Roll 56951

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Holton SFF 3848 7.8 +7.8 Seymour AJP 1159 2.3 +2.3 Wilson CLR 13431 27.2 -13.4 Barilaro * NAT 25868 52.3 +3.6 Marshall GRN 3913 7.9 +0.1 Thaler IND 1229 2.5 +2.5 .... OTH 0.0 -2.8

Final Count Wilson CLR 17276 38.4 -9.1 Barilaro * NAT 27723 61.6 +9.1 Exhausted 4449 9.0

Formal 49448 97.4 .. Informal 1310 2.6 .. Total / Turnout 50758 89.1

Mount Druitt Roll 56357

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Rusev LIB 13209 28.1 -1.1 Lang CON 1518 3.2 +3.2 Robertson GRN 3231 6.9 +1.8 Grewal CDP 2204 4.7 -0.8 Atalla * ALP 26869 57.1 +0.5 .... OTH 0.0 -3.6

Final Count Rusev LIB 14410 33.6 -1.0 Atalla * ALP 28505 66.4 +1.0 Exhausted 4116 8.8

Formal 47031 95.1 +0.4 Informal 2413 4.9 -0.4 Total / Turnout 49444 87.7 Mulgoa Roll 58259

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Shield GRN 2897 5.6 +1.4 Bijok SAP 1829 3.6 +3.6 Carney ALP 17270 33.6 -1.4 Davies * LIB 29379 57.2 +3.9 .... OTH 0.0 -7.5

Final Count Carney ALP 18858 38.7 -1.7 Davies * LIB 29910 61.3 +1.7 Exhausted 2607 5.1

Formal 51375 95.9 +0.1 Informal 2213 4.1 -0.1 Total / Turnout 53588 92.0

Page 28: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

22

Murray (SFF gain) Roll 55784

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Langfield CDP 715 1.5 +0.1 Weyrich ONP 3949 8.4 +8.4 De Silva GRN 1238 2.6 +0.4 Mills IND 633 1.3 -2.4 Dalton SFF 18305 38.8 +38.8 Kendall SAP 455 1.0 +1.0 Purtill CLR 4134 8.8 -7.4 Davies KSO 192 0.4 +0.4 Evans * NAT 16636 35.2 -20.3 Landini IND 976 2.1 +2.1 .... (Dalton) IND 0.0 -18.2 .... OTH 0.0 -2.7

Final Count Dalton SFF 20765 53.5 +53.5 Evans * NAT 18020 46.5 -26.2 .... (Dalton) IND 0.0 -27.3 Exhausted 8448 17.9

2-Party Preferred Purtill CLR 6707 25.1 +0.3 Evans * NAT 20029 74.9 -0.3 Exhausted 20497 43.4

Formal 47233 96.2 -0.1 Informal 1889 3.8 +0.1 Total / Turnout 49122 88.1 Note: See by-elections page 45. Helen Dalton was an Independent candidate in 2015 but an SFF candidate at the 2017 by-election and the 2019 general election. The first preference vote changes since the 2017 by-election were SFF +7.3, NAT -5.5, CLR -11.7, the swing to SFF after preferences +6.8. Myall Lakes Roll 57689

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Elliott SFF 3518 7.0 +7.0 Bye SAP 773 1.5 +1.5 Keegan CLR 14691 29.2 +1.3 Sandilands IND 4169 8.3 +8.3 Bromhead * NAT 24367 48.4 +1.6 Spence GRN 2797 5.6 -1.0 .... (Attkins) IND 0.0 -15.1 .... OTH 0.0 -3.5

Final Count Keegan CLR 17916 40.8 -0.5 Bromhead * NAT 25990 59.2 +0.5 Exhausted 6409 12.7

Formal 50315 96.7 -0.3 Informal 1715 3.3 +0.3 Total / Turnout 52030 90.2

Newcastle Roll 59126

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Jelfs SAP 1219 2.4 +2.4 McCabe GRN 8281 16.5 -1.9 Crakanthorp * ALP 23231 46.2 +6.0 Fredericks SBP 1178 2.3 +2.3 O'Brien SA 854 1.7 +0.4 Looker KSO 854 1.7 +1.7 Keating LIB 13224 26.3 -9.2 Bremner Young AJP 1478 2.9 +2.9 .... OTH 0.0 -4.8

Final Count Crakanthorp * ALP 29843 67.7 +10.3 Keating LIB 14236 32.3 -10.3 Exhausted 6240 12.4

Formal 50319 96.7 +0.4 Informal 1703 3.3 -0.4 Total / Turnout 52022 88.0 Newtown Roll 56412

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Watson SAP 967 2.1 +2.1 Buckmaster AJP 1105 2.4 +0.2 Le Saux SBP 687 1.5 +1.5 Indraghanti LIB 6730 14.5 -3.3 White KSO 3295 7.1 +7.1 Leong * GRN 21326 46.0 +0.5 Ingram ALP 12202 26.3 -4.4 .... OTH 0.0 -3.7

Final Count Leong * GRN 24849 63.8 +4.6 Ingram ALP 14078 36.2 -4.6 Exhausted 7385 15.9

2-Party Preferred Indraghanti LIB 8329 22.3 -3.2 Ingram ALP 28960 77.7 +3.2 Exhausted 9023 19.5

Formal 46312 97.9 +0.4 Informal 1004 2.1 -0.4 Total / Turnout 47316 83.9

Page 29: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

23

North Shore Roll 55332

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Furphy KSO 1993 4.2 +4.2 Pettigrew GRN 5393 11.3 -3.3 Bouchier AJP 827 1.7 +1.7 Gunning LDP 785 1.6 +1.6 Corrigan IND 9341 19.6 +19.6 Lester ALP 5900 12.3 -1.4 Wilson * LIB 22261 46.6 -11.5 Boast SAP 661 1.4 +1.4 Grimshaw CON 613 1.3 +1.3 .... (Ruff) IND 0.0 -10.1 .... OTH 0.0 -3.5

Final Count Pettigrew GRN 0 0.0 -28.8 Corrigan IND 15209 38.9 +38.9 Wilson * LIB 23917 61.1 -10.1 Exhausted 8648 18.1

2-Party Preferred Lester ALP 11863 32.2 +4.1 Wilson * LIB 25032 67.8 -4.1 Exhausted 10879 22.8

Formal 47774 98.5 +0.5 Informal 719 1.5 -0.5 Total / Turnout 48493 87.6 Note: See by-elections page 45. Compared to the by-election the first preference changes were LIB +3.8, Corrigan -4.3, the swing after preferences +6.4 to Liberal. Note that the Greens finished second after preferences at the 2015 election. Northern Tablelands Roll 55371

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Marshall * NAT 35766 73.5 +6.8 O'Brien CLR 5503 11.3 -4.4 Robinson GRN 2793 5.7 -1.4 Single SFF 4616 9.5 +9.5 .... OTH 0.0 -10.5

Final Count Marshall * NAT 37727 82.8 +5.8 O'Brien CLR 7814 17.2 -5.8 Exhausted 3137 6.4

Formal 48678 98.0 +0.2 Informal 979 2.0 -0.2 Total / Turnout 49657 89.7

Oatley Roll 53780

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Mannering ALP 15767 32.8 -3.7 Dragone GRN 3080 6.4 -1.0 Preston ONP 2165 4.5 +4.5 Coure * LIB 26311 54.7 +3.5 Bongomin SFF 797 1.7 +1.7 .... OTH 0.0 -5.0

Final Count Mannering ALP 17802 39.5 -3.9 Coure * LIB 27321 60.5 +3.9 Exhausted 2997 6.2

Formal 48120 97.0 +0.3 Informal 1481 3.0 -0.3 Total / Turnout 49601 92.2 Orange (SFF gain) Roll 56939

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McMahon CON 873 1.7 +1.7 Hazelton NAT 12987 25.8 -39.8 Davey CDP 1627 3.2 +0.6 Baxter IND 896 1.8 +1.8 O'Brien KSO 416 0.8 +0.8 Sanger CLR 5126 10.2 -13.2 Nugent GRN 2615 5.2 -1.6 Bisgrove LDP 1037 2.1 +2.1 Donato * SFF 24718 49.1 +49.1 .... OTH 0.0 -1.7

Final Count Hazelton NAT 14821 34.8 -36.9 Sanger CLR 0 0.0 -28.3 Donato * SFF 27746 65.2 +65.2 Exhausted 7728 15.4

2-Party Preferred Hazelton NAT 17460 65.1 -6.6 Sanger CLR 9380 34.9 +6.6 Exhausted 23455 46.6

Formal 50295 96.5 -0.6 Informal 1811 3.5 +0.6 Total / Turnout 52106 91.5 Note: Orange was gained by the SFF at a November 2016 by-election and retained by the party at the 2019 election. See by-elections page 45. The change in first preference vote shares compared to the by-election were SFF +25.3, NAT -5.8, CLR -8.1, after preferences the swing to SFF +15.1.

Page 30: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

24

Oxley Roll 57131

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Bain GRN 6179 12.7 -2.4 Jenvey CLR 9904 20.4 -6.3 Saul SFF 5644 11.6 +11.6 Pavey * NAT 25115 51.7 -0.9 Smythe SAP 1698 3.5 +3.5 .... OTH 0.0 -5.5

Final Count Jenvey CLR 14672 35.1 -4.0 Pavey * NAT 27111 64.9 +4.0 Exhausted 6757 13.9

Formal 48540 96.5 -0.2 Informal 1761 3.5 +0.2 Total / Turnout 50301 88.0 Parramatta Roll 57023

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Lee * LIB 26322 54.0 +0.2 Bradley GRN 3637 7.5 -0.9 Scully ALP 14736 30.2 +1.5 Moltter SAP 701 1.4 +1.4 Garrard IND 1955 4.0 +0.8 Price SA 354 0.7 +0.7 Bellwood KSO 1023 2.1 +2.1 .... OTH 0.0 -5.8

Final Count Lee * LIB 27330 60.6 -2.2 Scully ALP 17733 39.4 +2.2 Exhausted 3665 7.5

Formal 48728 96.8 +0.5 Informal 1621 3.2 -0.5 Total / Turnout 50349 88.3

Penrith Roll 56565

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McKeown ALP 17415 35.6 +2.8 Tyndall IND 1415 2.9 +2.9 Mcbeth AJP 885 1.8 +1.8 Ayres * LIB 19561 40.0 -5.6 Halley ONP 3510 7.2 +7.2 Burton CDP 1095 2.2 -1.7 Cornish IND 665 1.4 +1.4 Franich SFF 1276 2.6 +2.6 Brown SAP 577 1.2 +1.2 Best GRN 2454 5.0 -0.5 .... (Kelly) IND 0.0 -9.0 .... OTH 0.0 -3.1

Final Count McKeown ALP 20096 48.7 +4.9 Ayres * LIB 21204 51.3 -4.9 Exhausted 7553 15.5

Formal 48853 96.4 +0.4 Informal 1819 3.6 -0.4 Total / Turnout 50672 89.6 Pittwater Roll 56138

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Matkovic AJP 1417 2.9 +2.9 Matthews IND 1087 2.2 +2.2 Stokes * LIB 28170 57.4 -10.4 Mitchell CON 1283 2.6 +2.6 Newman KSO 1644 3.3 +3.3 Korzy GRN 7518 15.3 -0.8 Turkington ALP 6168 12.6 -0.2 Daly SAP 1832 3.7 +3.7 .... OTH 0.0 -3.4

Final Count Stokes * LIB 29696 70.8 -4.8 Korzy GRN 12225 29.2 +4.8 Exhausted 7198 14.7

2-Party Preferred Stokes * LIB 30070 72.4 -5.5 Turkington ALP 11486 27.6 +5.5 Exhausted 7563 15.4

Formal 49119 97.3 -0.2 Informal 1346 2.7 +0.2 Total / Turnout 50465 89.9

Page 31: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

25

Port Macquarie Roll 59974

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Alley CLR 12220 23.2 -0.9 Williams * NAT 33538 63.6 +1.5 Megget GRN 4119 7.8 -1.1 Burgess SAP 2858 5.4 +5.4 .... OTH 0.0 -4.9

Final Count Alley CLR 14690 29.7 -1.3 Williams * NAT 34725 70.3 +1.3 Exhausted 3320 6.3

Formal 52735 96.4 -0.8 Informal 1971 3.6 +0.8 Total / Turnout 54706 91.2 Port Stephens Roll 56476

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Abbott LIB 19818 39.9 -1.0 Jelfs SAP 984 2.0 +2.0 Washington * CLR 23896 48.1 +1.0 Doran IND 1756 3.5 +3.5 Magee GRN 1885 3.8 -2.9 Taylor AJP 1303 2.6 +2.6 .... OTH 0.0 -5.3

Final Count Abbott LIB 20448 44.2 -1.0 Washington * CLR 25766 55.8 +1.0 Exhausted 3428 6.9

Formal 49642 96.5 -0.2 Informal 1790 3.5 +0.2 Total / Turnout 51432 91.1 Prospect Roll 54422

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McDermott * ALP 24235 51.7 +6.9 Newland GRN 2345 5.0 -1.8 Ward AJP 1464 3.1 +3.1 Hana LIB 15851 33.8 -4.6 Maksimovic IND 2950 6.3 +6.3 .... CDP 0.0 -7.1 .... OTH 0.0 -2.8

Final Count McDermott * ALP 26008 60.7 +7.3 Hana LIB 16867 39.3 -7.3 Exhausted 3970 8.5

Formal 46845 95.4 +0.3 Informal 2242 4.6 -0.3 Total / Turnout 49087 90.2

Riverstone Roll 59899

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Conolly * LIB 28956 54.1 -1.1 Van Vucht GRN 3226 6.0 +0.6 Christie ALP 21328 39.9 +8.3 .... CDP 0.0 -5.4 .... OTH 0.0 -2.5

Final Count Conolly * LIB 29337 56.3 -5.9 Christie ALP 22735 43.7 +5.9 Exhausted 1438 2.7

Formal 53510 97.1 +0.3 Informal 1612 2.9 -0.3 Total / Turnout 55122 92.0 Rockdale Roll 56421

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Tulloch KSO 2865 6.0 +6.0 Collaros AJP 1800 3.8 +3.8 Kamper * ALP 21945 45.8 -0.1 Faraj IND 1335 2.8 +2.8 Hassan LIB 16118 33.7 -5.6 Strong GRN 3829 8.0 +1.1 .... OTH 0.0 -7.9

Final Count Kamper * ALP 25077 59.5 +4.8 Hassan LIB 17037 40.5 -4.8 Exhausted 5778 12.1

Formal 47892 95.4 -0.2 Informal 2318 4.6 +0.2 Total / Turnout 50210 89.0 Ryde Roll 54881

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Worsley CDP 2058 4.2 .. Khatchigian KSO 1336 2.8 +2.8 Larsen SAP 835 1.7 +1.7 Dominello * LIB 24045 49.6 -4.1 Laxale ALP 14750 30.4 +1.5 Busch CON 850 1.8 +1.8 Peters GRN 4206 8.7 -2.8 De Bruyne LDP 412 0.8 +0.8 .... OTH 0.0 -1.7

Final Count Dominello * LIB 26032 59.0 -2.6 Laxale ALP 18123 41.0 +2.6 Exhausted 4337 8.9

Formal 48492 97.3 +0.3 Informal 1351 2.7 -0.3 Total / Turnout 49843 90.8

Page 32: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

26

Seven Hills Roll 53676

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Taylor * LIB 23548 50.1 +0.4 Atkins GRN 3038 6.5 -0.7 D'Cruz CON 775 1.6 +1.6 Sexton IND 1844 3.9 +3.9 Owen ALP 16909 36.0 +3.5 Claus SAP 863 1.8 +1.8 .... OTH 0.0 -10.6

Final Count Taylor * LIB 24518 56.4 -2.4 Owen ALP 18988 43.6 +2.4 Exhausted 3471 7.4

Formal 46977 96.8 +0.6 Informal 1572 3.2 -0.6 Total / Turnout 48549 90.4 Shellharbour Roll 62909

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Watson * ALP 31532 57.5 +4.8 Bitschkat LIB 14924 27.2 +1.5 Dixon GRN 5158 9.4 +0.1 Davis SAP 3226 5.9 +5.9 .... OTH 0.0 -12.2

Final Count Watson * ALP 34435 68.3 +1.3 Bitschkat LIB 16005 31.7 -1.3 Exhausted 4400 8.0

Formal 54840 95.2 -0.4 Informal 2783 4.8 +0.4 Total / Turnout 57623 91.6 South Coast Roll 56922

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Stephenson GRN 6481 13.3 +0.3 Hancock * LIB 27143 55.5 +3.0 Alldrick CLR 15256 31.2 +0.8 .... OTH 0.0 -4.2

Final Count Hancock * LIB 27902 60.6 +0.9 Alldrick CLR 18178 39.4 -0.9 Exhausted 2800 5.7

Formal 48880 96.1 -0.9 Informal 2007 3.9 +0.9 Total / Turnout 50887 89.4

Strathfield Roll 53451

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count MacLeod GRN 4061 8.8 -0.4 Orekondy KSO 1443 3.1 +3.1 Fletcher AJP 1029 2.2 +2.2 Madirazza LIB 17972 38.9 -3.8 Liang CON 1237 2.7 +2.7 Mckay * ALP 20475 44.3 +1.9 .... OTH 0.0 -5.7

Final Count Madirazza LIB 19245 45.0 -3.2 Mckay * ALP 23519 55.0 +3.2 Exhausted 3453 7.5

Formal 46217 97.0 +0.2 Informal 1437 3.0 -0.2 Total / Turnout 47654 89.2 Summer Hill Roll 56545

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Wei LIB 11380 23.3 -0.5 Makris KSO 2791 5.7 +5.7 Romanovsky AJP 1227 2.5 +2.5 Sinden SAP 693 1.4 +1.4 Raue GRN 10055 20.6 -6.7 Haylen * ALP 22639 46.4 +3.1 .... OTH 0.0 -5.6

Final Count Wei LIB 12271 27.7 +27.7 Raue GRN 0 0.0 -39.5 Haylen * ALP 32023 72.3 +11.8 Exhausted 4491 9.2

2-Party Preferred Wei LIB 12271 27.7 -2.2 Haylen * ALP 32023 72.3 +2.2 Exhausted 4491 9.2

Formal 48785 97.1 +0.4 Informal 1451 2.9 -0.4 Total / Turnout 50236 88.8 Note: At the 2015 election the Greens finished second on first preferences and the Liberal Party third.

Page 33: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

27

Swansea Roll 56681

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Seddon CON 2556 5.2 +5.2 Riseley AJP 2714 5.5 +2.6 Bowman LIB 16123 32.8 +6.9 Catley * ALP 24371 49.5 +4.5 Williamson GRN 3428 7.0 +1.1 .... (Edwards) IND 0.0 -13.4 .... OTH 0.0 -6.9

Final Count Bowman LIB 17449 39.4 +2.4 Catley * ALP 26792 60.6 -2.4 Exhausted 4951 10.1

Formal 49192 95.7 -0.6 Informal 2224 4.3 +0.6 Total / Turnout 51416 90.7 Sydney Roll 55131

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Harms GRN 4124 9.5 -0.2 Greenwich * IND 17905 41.4 +1.8 Thomas SAP 696 1.6 +1.6 Gannon LIB 13089 30.3 -2.5 Douskou SBP 1017 2.4 +2.4 Holder ALP 6370 14.7 .. .... OTH 0.0 -3.1

Final Count Greenwich * IND 22841 61.8 +3.7 Gannon LIB 14134 38.2 -3.7 Exhausted 6226 14.4

2-Party Preferred Gannon LIB 16259 53.0 -3.7 Holder ALP 14444 47.0 +3.7 Exhausted 12498 28.9

Formal 43201 98.2 +0.6 Informal 807 1.8 -0.6 Total / Turnout 44008 79.8

Tamworth Roll 56751

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Rodda IND 8283 16.4 +16.4 Anderson * NAT 27855 55.1 .. Gunning GRN 1367 2.7 +0.6 Mears CLR 4133 8.2 +2.4 Hall AJP 760 1.5 +1.5 Bacon SFF 8180 16.2 +16.2 .... (Draper) IND 0.0 -34.4 .... OTH 0.0 -2.6

Final Count Rodda IND 12403 28.9 +28.9 Anderson * NAT 30522 71.1 +11.1 .... (Draper) IND 0.0 -40.0 Exhausted 7653 15.1

2-Party Preferred Anderson * NAT 32700 79.5 +0.5 Mears CLR 8448 20.5 -0.5 Exhausted 9430 18.6

Formal 50578 97.8 +0.1 Informal 1136 2.2 -0.1 Total / Turnout 51714 91.1 Note: Independent and former MP Peter Draper had finished second at the 2015 election. Terrigal Roll 57504

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Blaikie CON 1202 2.4 +2.4 Chestnut IND 1758 3.5 +3.5 Doyle GRN 5073 10.1 -1.7 Coleman AJP 1542 3.1 +3.1 Rigg SAP 995 2.0 +2.0 Sundstrom ALP 13134 26.1 -5.3 Crouch * LIB 26580 52.9 +1.1 .... OTH 0.0 -5.0

Final Count Sundstrom ALP 16794 37.7 -3.3 Crouch * LIB 27802 62.3 +3.3 Exhausted 5688 11.3

Formal 50284 96.8 .. Informal 1682 3.2 .. Total / Turnout 51966 90.4

Page 34: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

28

The Entrance Roll 56363

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Mehan * ALP 20744 43.1 +1.3 Fitzpatrick KSO 1263 2.6 +2.6 Ervin CON 991 2.1 +2.1 Pearson GRN 3691 7.7 -1.7 Jones SAP 1218 2.5 +2.5 Perrem LIB 18145 37.7 -6.2 Richards AJP 2034 4.2 +4.2 .... OTH 0.0 -4.9

Final Count Mehan * ALP 23661 55.2 +4.8 Perrem LIB 19189 44.8 -4.8 Exhausted 5236 10.9

Formal 48086 95.8 -0.5 Informal 2130 4.2 +0.5 Total / Turnout 50216 89.1 Tweed Roll 56940

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Elliot CLR 14449 31.0 -4.9 Hearder AJP 1790 3.8 +3.8 Provest * NAT 22185 47.5 +0.5 McDonald SAP 1776 3.8 +3.8 Fenelon GRN 6461 13.8 +0.6 .... OTH 0.0 -3.8

Final Count Elliot CLR 19040 45.0 -1.8 Provest * NAT 23243 55.0 +1.8 Exhausted 4378 9.4

Formal 46661 96.0 -0.6 Informal 1937 4.0 +0.6 Total / Turnout 48598 85.3

Upper Hunter Roll 55471

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Blair SAP 1077 2.2 +2.2 Watts SFF 10697 22.0 +22.0 Johnsen * NAT 16492 34.0 -4.9 Robertson AJP 961 2.0 +2.0 Lonergan GRN 2320 4.8 -0.7 Stretton CDP 927 1.9 -0.2 Ellis LDP 2151 4.4 +4.4 Dagg CLR 13900 28.6 -3.9 .... (Watts) IND 0.0 -19.4 .... OTH 0.0 -1.6

Final Count Johnsen * NAT 19341 52.6 +0.4 Dagg CLR 17456 47.4 -0.4 Exhausted 11728 24.2

Formal 48525 96.6 -0.3 Informal 1701 3.4 +0.3 Total / Turnout 50226 90.5 Note: Lee Watts contested the 2015 election as an Independent and the 2019 election as an SFF candidate. Vaucluse Roll 56448

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Macsmith KSO 3683 8.0 +8.0 Guttman-Jones IND 2284 5.0 +5.0 Dunne SAP 620 1.3 +1.3 Upton * LIB 26397 57.4 -8.2 McEwin GRN 6494 14.1 -4.4 Doyle AJP 664 1.4 +1.4 Kulakauskas ALP 5881 12.8 -0.4 .... OTH 0.0 -2.7

Final Count Upton * LIB 28260 69.3 -3.6 McEwin GRN 12506 30.7 +3.6 Exhausted 5257 11.4

2-Party Preferred Upton * LIB 28616 70.6 -4.7 Kulakauskas ALP 11927 29.4 +4.7 Exhausted 5480 11.9

Formal 46023 98.2 +0.6 Informal 856 1.8 -0.6 Total / Turnout 46879 83.0

Page 35: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

29

Wagga Wagga (IND gain) Roll 55688

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McDonagh SFF 4242 8.7 +8.7 Quade IND 689 1.4 +1.4 Taggart CON 843 1.7 +1.7 McGirr * IND 21682 44.6 +44.6 Hayes CLR 7141 14.7 -13.4 Goodlass GRN 1346 2.8 -2.2 Powell NAT 12635 26.0 +26.0 .... LIB 0.0 -53.8 .... (Funnell) IND 0.0 -9.7 .... OTH 0.0 -3.5

Final Count McGirr * IND 26869 65.5 +65.5 Hayes CLR 0 0.0 -37.1 Powell NAT 14169 34.5 +34.5 .... LIB 0.0 -62.9 Exhausted 7540 15.5

2-Party Preferred Hayes CLR 13338 42.5 +5.4 Powell NAT 18055 57.5 -5.4 Exhausted 17185 35.4

Formal 48578 96.8 .. Informal 1607 3.2 .. Total / Turnout 50185 90.1 Note: Wagga Wagga was gained by Independent Joe McGirr at a September 2018 by-election and retained at the 2019 election. See by-elections page 45. Note that the Liberal Party contested Wagga Wagga at the 2015 election, and at the by-election, but stood aside for the National Party in 2019. Compared to the by-election, the change in first preference vote shares were McGirr +19.2, Labor -9.0 and Coalition +0.5 After preferences the swing to McGirr was +5.9. Wakehurst Roll 55814

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Hazzard * LIB 28704 58.9 -5.0 Mawson SAP 1322 2.7 +2.7 Schultz KSO 1928 4.0 +4.0 Zaharias GRN 4867 10.0 -2.0 Sorensen AJP 1685 3.5 +3.5 Hough IND 1606 3.3 +3.3 Sharpe ALP 8600 17.7 +2.2 .... OTH 0.0 -8.7

Final Count Hazzard * LIB 30182 71.0 -4.2 Sharpe ALP 12326 29.0 +4.2 Exhausted 6204 12.7

Formal 48712 96.9 +0.4 Informal 1537 3.1 -0.4 Total / Turnout 50249 90.0

Wallsend Roll 59050

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Hornery * ALP 31998 62.3 +3.9 Francis-Coan GRN 4756 9.3 -1.5 Gundry AJP 2170 4.2 +4.2 De Vries CON 1969 3.8 +3.8 Trappett LIB 10458 20.4 -4.4 .... OTH 0.0 -6.1

Final Count Hornery * ALP 35605 75.4 +4.6 Trappett LIB 11591 24.6 -4.6 Exhausted 4155 8.1

Formal 51351 96.5 +0.4 Informal 1851 3.5 -0.4 Total / Turnout 53202 90.1 Willoughby Roll 54508

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Bennett AJP 1040 2.2 +2.2 Meow-Meow FLX 384 0.8 +0.8 Berejiklian * LIB 27292 57.0 -6.5 Keogh GRN 5342 11.2 -4.7 Penn IND 4742 9.9 +9.9 Crowley KSO 1403 2.9 +2.9 Graham SAP 779 1.6 +1.6 Reiss ALP 6875 14.4 -1.5 .... OTH 0.0 -4.7

Final Count Berejiklian * LIB 29142 71.0 -3.4 Keogh GRN 0 0.0 -25.6 Reiss ALP 11885 29.0 +29.0 Exhausted 6830 14.3

2-Party Preferred Berejiklian * LIB 29142 71.0 -2.8 Reiss ALP 11885 29.0 +2.8 Exhausted 6830 14.3

Formal 47857 98.1 +0.5 Informal 934 1.9 -0.5 Total / Turnout 48791 89.5 Note: The Greens finished second after preferences in Willoughby at the 2015 election.

Page 36: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

30

Wollondilly Roll 57397

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Hannan IND 10258 20.1 +20.1 Powell GRN 2847 5.6 -2.8 Edwards AJP 1326 2.6 +2.6 Fenton ONP 5712 11.2 +11.2 Bolwell SFF 3235 6.3 +6.3 Smith LIB 19351 38.0 -20.0 Davidson CLR 7723 15.1 -9.1 Black LDP 537 1.1 +1.1 .... OTH 0.0 -9.4

Final Count Hannan IND 16931 44.5 +44.5 Smith LIB 21113 55.5 -11.8 Davidson CLR 0 0.0 -32.7 Exhausted 12945 25.4

2-Party Preferred Smith LIB 22925 63.8 -3.5 Davidson CLR 12988 36.2 +3.5 Exhausted 15076 29.6

Formal 50989 96.3 +0.1 Informal 1934 3.7 -0.1 Total / Turnout 52923 92.2 Note: Liberal MP Jai Rowell resigned as MP for Wollondilly in December 2017, too late to hold a by-election before the general election. Wollongong Roll 60829

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Anthony SAP 2242 4.4 +4.4 Arcioni GRN 6583 12.8 +3.3 Nastoski IND 2830 5.5 +5.5 Bank AJP 1541 3.0 +3.0 Scully * ALP 25776 50.1 +9.7 Fitzpatrick LIB 11427 22.2 +1.2 Hehir KSO 1036 2.0 +2.0 .... (Rorris) IND 0.0 -20.4 .... OTH 0.0 -8.6

Final Count Scully * ALP 31357 71.4 +12.5 Fitzpatrick LIB 12580 28.6 +28.6 .... (Rorris) IND 0.0 -41.1 Exhausted 7498 14.6

2-Party Preferred Scully * ALP 31357 71.4 +7.9 Fitzpatrick LIB 12580 28.6 -7.9 Exhausted 7498 14.6

Formal 51435 95.5 -0.4 Informal 2400 4.5 +0.4 Total / Turnout 53835 88.5 Note: See by-elections page 45. Compared to the by-election, the Labor first preference vote rose +2.0.

Wyong Roll 57477

Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Li-Cantwell LIB 15338 31.9 -4.9 Wynn GRN 4553 9.5 +2.8 Stevenson CON 3153 6.6 +6.6 Harris * ALP 25077 52.1 +1.0 .... OTH 0.0 -5.4

Final Count Li-Cantwell LIB 16415 37.6 -3.7 Harris * ALP 27296 62.4 +3.7 Exhausted 4410 9.2

Formal 48121 94.8 -0.9 Informal 2655 5.2 +0.9 Total / Turnout 50776 88.3

Page 37: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

31

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS BY DISTRICT

Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percent District Labor Coalition Labor Coalition Swing Albury 14572 28258 34.0 66.0 2.7 to Coalition Auburn 24419 16876 59.1 40.9 3.2 to Labor Ballina 1,2 23657 19904 54.3 45.7 1.3 to Labor Balmain 1,2 28127 11795 70.5 29.5 4.7 to Labor Bankstown 25735 14590 63.8 36.2 0.2 to Coalition Barwon 1 14904 16483 47.5 52.5 10.4 to Labor Bathurst 14242 30130 32.1 67.9 2.1 to Coalition Baulkham Hills 14434 31658 31.3 68.7 3.1 to Labor Bega 19830 26210 43.1 56.9 1.3 to Labor Blacktown 28020 13348 67.7 32.3 4.6 to Labor Blue Mountains 28834 15620 64.9 35.1 6.7 to Labor Cabramatta 1 27375 8871 75.5 24.5 8.3 to Labor Camden 21796 29556 42.4 57.6 10.7 to Labor Campbelltown 27026 13305 67.0 33.0 9.7 to Labor Canterbury 28358 16634 63.0 37.0 2.7 to Coalition Castle Hill 12561 37043 25.3 74.7 4.7 to Labor Cessnock 30229 13364 69.3 30.7 2.7 to Coalition Charlestown 28270 17069 62.4 37.6 0.5 to Coalition Clarence 14322 25985 35.5 64.5 4.8 to Coalition Coffs Harbour 1 14717 22799 39.2 60.8 3.5 to Labor Coogee 21510 20141 51.6 48.4 4.6 to Labor Cootamundra 9673 32504 22.9 77.1 6.6 to Coalition Cronulla 14556 33349 30.4 69.6 1.3 to Labor Davidson 1,2 10967 33750 24.5 75.5 3.5 to Labor Drummoyne 15552 28878 35.0 65.0 3.8 to Labor Dubbo 1 10778 23070 31.8 68.2 2.3 to Labor East Hills 21217 21646 49.5 50.5 0.1 to Coalition Epping 17238 28584 37.6 62.4 3.8 to Labor Fairfield 26848 12675 67.9 32.1 0.1 to Labor Gosford 25048 18691 57.3 42.7 7.0 to Labor Goulburn 19398 22359 46.5 53.5 3.1 to Labor Granville 23629 17365 57.6 42.4 5.5 to Labor Hawkesbury 12982 26935 32.5 67.5 0.3 to Labor Heathcote 21450 26174 45.0 55.0 2.6 to Labor Heffron 28874 15462 65.1 34.9 1.0 to Labor Holsworthy 20042 22861 46.7 53.3 3.4 to Labor Hornsby 14585 28700 33.7 66.3 2.6 to Labor Keira 33744 14635 69.7 30.3 2.4 to Labor Kiama 17167 28016 38.0 62.0 3.3 to Coalition Kogarah 21544 20073 51.8 48.2 5.1 to Coalition Ku-ring-gai 12969 31027 29.5 70.5 2.5 to Labor Lake Macquarie 1,2 16390 12180 57.4 42.6 5.8 to Coalition Lakemba 29245 11136 72.4 27.6 0.9 to Labor Lane Cove 16092 29042 35.7 64.3 3.5 to Labor Lismore 2 21856 20710 51.3 48.7 1.6 to Labor Liverpool 27951 13945 66.7 33.3 4.2 to Coalition Londonderry 27442 21163 56.5 43.5 2.4 to Coalition Macquarie Fields 29944 16301 64.8 35.2 6.7 to Labor Maitland 27211 15835 63.2 36.8 0.6 to Coalition Manly 1,2 14859 27239 35.3 64.7 13.7 to Labor Maroubra 24026 17069 58.5 41.5 2.4 to Coalition Miranda 15593 28414 35.4 64.6 1.6 to Coalition

Page 38: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

32

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS BY DISTRICT

Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percent District Labor Coalition Labor Coalition Swing Monaro 17276 27723 38.4 61.6 9.1 to Coalition Mount Druitt 28505 14410 66.4 33.6 1.0 to Labor Mulgoa 18858 29910 38.7 61.3 1.7 to Coalition Murray 1,2 6707 20029 25.1 74.9 0.3 to Labor Myall Lakes 17916 25990 40.8 59.2 0.5 to Coalition Newcastle 29843 14236 67.7 32.3 10.3 to Labor Newtown 1,2 28960 8329 77.7 22.3 3.2 to Labor North Shore 1,2 11863 25032 32.2 67.8 4.1 to Labor Northern Tablelands 7814 37727 17.2 82.8 5.8 to Coalition Oatley 17802 27321 39.5 60.5 3.9 to Coalition Orange 1 9380 17460 34.9 65.1 6.6 to Labor Oxley 14672 27111 35.1 64.9 4.0 to Coalition Parramatta 17733 27330 39.4 60.6 2.2 to Labor Penrith 20096 21204 48.7 51.3 4.9 to Labor Pittwater 1,2 11486 30070 27.6 72.4 5.5 to Labor Port Macquarie 14690 34725 29.7 70.3 1.3 to Coalition Port Stephens 25766 20448 55.8 44.2 1.0 to Labor Prospect 26008 16867 60.7 39.3 7.3 to Labor Riverstone 22735 29337 43.7 56.3 5.9 to Labor Rockdale 25077 17037 59.5 40.5 4.8 to Labor Ryde 18123 26032 41.0 59.0 2.6 to Labor Seven Hills 18988 24518 43.6 56.4 2.4 to Labor Shellharbour 34435 16005 68.3 31.7 1.3 to Labor South Coast 18178 27902 39.4 60.6 0.9 to Coalition Strathfield 23519 19245 55.0 45.0 3.2 to Labor Summer Hill 2 32023 12271 72.3 27.7 2.2 to Labor Swansea 26792 17449 60.6 39.4 2.4 to Coalition Sydney 1,2 14444 16259 47.0 53.0 3.7 to Labor Tamworth 1,2 8448 32700 20.5 79.5 0.5 to Coalition Terrigal 16794 27802 37.7 62.3 3.3 to Coalition The Entrance 23661 19189 55.2 44.8 4.8 to Labor Tweed 19040 23243 45.0 55.0 1.8 to Coalition Upper Hunter 17456 19341 47.4 52.6 0.4 to Coalition Vaucluse 1,2 11927 28616 29.4 70.6 4.7 to Labor Wagga Wagga 1 13338 18055 42.5 57.5 5.4 to Labor Wakehurst 12326 30182 29.0 71.0 4.2 to Labor Wallsend 35605 11591 75.4 24.6 4.6 to Labor Willoughby 2 11885 29142 29.0 71.0 2.8 to Labor Wollondilly 1 12988 22925 36.2 63.8 3.5 to Labor Wollongong 2 31357 12580 71.4 28.6 7.9 to Labor Wyong 27296 16415 62.4 37.6 3.7 to Labor Total 1893618 2053185 48.0 52.0 2.3 to Labor Footnotes 1 – did not finish as a two-party preferred contest in 2019. See next page for details. 2 – did not finish as a two-party preferred contest in 2015.

Page 39: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

33

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: TWO-CANDIDATE PREFERRED RESULTS

Winning Candidate Defeated Candidate Electoral District Party Vote % Party Vote % Ballina GRN 24645 55.4 NAT 19824 44.6 Balmain GRN 24074 60.0 ALP 16037 40.0 Barwon SFF 19901 56.6 NAT 15258 43.4 Cabramatta ALP 25089 62.9 IND 14818 37.1 Coffs Harbour NAT 22375 60.3 IND 14730 39.7 Davidson LIB 33440 75.2 GRN 11004 24.8 Dubbo NAT 19920 52.0 IND 18370 48.0 Lake Macquarie IND 31164 72.1 ALP 12053 27.9 Manly LIB 26628 62.9 GRN 15706 37.1 Murray SFF 20765 53.5 NAT 18020 46.5 Newtown GRN 24849 63.8 ALP 14078 36.2 North Shore LIB 23917 61.1 IND 15209 38.9 Orange SFF 27746 65.2 NAT 14821 34.8 Pittwater LIB 29696 70.8 GRN 12225 29.2 Sydney IND 22841 61.8 LIB 14134 38.2 Tamworth NAT 30522 71.1 IND 12403 28.9 Vaucluse LIB 28260 69.3 GRN 12506 30.7 Wagga Wagga IND 26869 65.5 NAT 14169 34.5 Wollondilly LIB 21113 55.5 IND 16931 44.5

Comparing State-Wide Two-Candidate Preferred Vote 2015-2019 Votes Pcts including exhausted Pcts excluding exhausted Party 2015 2019 2015 2019 Change 2015 2019 Change 2-Candidate Preferred Liberal 1,584,065 1,516,254 36.0 33.3 -2.7 40.0 37.7 -2.3 National 490,777 473,462 11.1 10.4 -0.7 12.4 11.8 -0.6 Labor 1,634,175 1,669,560 37.1 36.7 -0.4 41.3 41.5 +0.2 Greens 163,375 125,009 3.7 2.7 -1.0 4.1 3.1 -1.0 SFF 0 68,412 .. 1.5 +1.5 .. 1.7 +1.7 Independents 89,164 173,335 2.0 3.8 +1.8 2.3 4.3 +2.0 Exhausted 442,778 525,854 10.1 11.6 +1.5 2-Party Preferred Coalition 2,141,898 2,053,185 48.6 45.1 -3.5 54.3 52.0 -2.3 Labor 1,801,195 1,893,618 40.9 41.6 +0.7 45.7 48.0 +2.3 Exhausted 461,241 605,083 10.5 13.3 +2.8

Page 40: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

34

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: FINAL COUNT PERCENTAGES AND RESULT BASIS District Final Pct after Preferences Won Required (Other party) L/NP ALP OTH Exhst By Result basis Preferences Albury 59.3 30.6 .. 10.1 LIB First Preferences Auburn 37.6 54.5 .. 7.9 ALP Majority Partial Ballina (GRN) 39.5 .. 49.2 11.3 GRN Plurality from 2nd Full Balmain (GRN) .. 32.5 48.8 18.6 GRN Plurality Full Bankstown 33.4 58.8 .. 7.8 ALP First Preferences Barwon (SFF) 33.0 .. 43.1 23.9 SFF Plurality Full Bathurst 59.3 28.0 .. 12.7 NAT First Preferences Baulkham Hills 62.9 28.7 .. 8.4 LIB First Preferences Bega 51.7 39.1 .. 9.2 LIB Majority Partial Blacktown 28.5 59.7 .. 11.8 ALP First Preferences Blue Mountains 31.7 58.6 .. 9.7 ALP Majority Partial Cabramatta (IND) .. 53.0 31.3 15.7 ALP Majority Partial Camden 47.1 34.7 .. 18.2 LIB Plurality Full Campbelltown 29.2 59.4 .. 11.4 ALP First Preferences Canterbury 34.1 58.2 .. 7.7 ALP First Preferences Castle Hill 70.5 23.9 .. 5.6 LIB First Preferences Cessnock 26.8 60.7 .. 12.4 ALP First Preferences Charlestown 34.9 57.8 .. 7.2 ALP First Preferences Clarence 52.6 29.0 .. 18.3 NAT Majority Partial Coffs Harbour (IND) 47.3 .. 31.1 21.6 NAT Plurality Partial Coogee 43.8 46.7 .. 9.5 ALP Plurality Full Cootamundra 68.5 20.4 .. 11.1 NAT First Preferences Cronulla 65.2 28.5 .. 6.3 LIB First Preferences Davidson (GRN) 68.0 .. 22.4 9.6 LIB First Preferences Drummoyne 60.8 32.8 .. 6.4 LIB First Preferences Dubbo (IND) 41.1 .. 37.9 21.0 NAT Plurality Full East Hills 45.5 44.6 .. 10.0 LIB Plurality Full Epping 58.1 35.0 .. 6.9 LIB First Preferences Fairfield 28.8 60.9 .. 10.3 ALP First Preferences Gosford 38.4 51.5 .. 10.1 ALP Majority Full Goulburn 43.8 38.0 .. 18.2 LIB Plurality Full Granville 39.3 53.5 .. 7.2 ALP Majority Partial Hawkesbury 55.0 26.5 .. 18.4 LIB First Preferences Heathcote 51.0 41.8 .. 7.2 LIB Majority Partial Heffron 30.9 57.7 .. 11.3 ALP Majority Full Holsworthy 47.4 41.5 .. 11.1 LIB Plurality Full Hornsby 57.4 29.2 .. 13.4 LIB First Preferences Keira 28.2 65.0 .. 6.8 ALP First Preferences Kiama 57.2 35.1 .. 7.7 LIB First Preferences Kogarah 44.0 47.3 .. 8.7 ALP Plurality Full Ku-ring-gai 63.7 26.6 .. 9.7 LIB First Preferences Lake Macquarie (IND) .. 24.1 62.2 13.7 IND First Preferences Lakemba 25.0 65.5 .. 9.5 ALP First Preferences Lane Cove 57.0 31.6 .. 11.4 LIB First Preferences Lismore 43.0 45.4 .. 11.6 ALP Plurality from 2nd Full Liverpool 29.6 59.4 .. 10.9 ALP First Preferences Londonderry 40.2 52.1 .. 7.7 ALP Majority Partial Macquarie Fields 30.9 56.7 .. 12.4 ALP First Preferences Maitland 29.8 51.3 .. 18.9 ALP Majority Partial Manly (GRN) 55.1 .. 32.5 12.4 LIB First Preferences Maroubra 35.4 49.8 .. 14.9 ALP Plurality Full Miranda 57.9 31.8 .. 10.3 LIB First Preferences

Page 41: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

35

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: FINAL COUNT PERCENTAGES AND RESULT BASIS District Final Pct after Preferences Won Required (Other party) L/NP ALP OTH Exhst By Result basis Preferences Monaro 56.1 34.9 .. 9.0 NAT First Preferences Mount Druitt 30.6 60.6 .. 8.8 ALP First Preferences Mulgoa 58.2 36.7 .. 5.1 LIB First Preferences Murray (SFF) 38.2 .. 44.0 17.9 SFF Plurality Full Myall Lakes 51.7 35.6 .. 12.7 NAT Majority Partial Newcastle 28.3 59.3 .. 12.4 ALP Majority Partial Newtown (GRN) .. 30.4 53.7 15.9 GRN Majority Partial North Shore (IND) 50.1 .. 31.8 18.1 LIB Majority Partial Northern Tablelands 77.5 16.1 .. 6.4 NAT First preferences Oatley 56.8 37.0 .. 6.2 LIB First Preferences Orange (SFF) 29.5 .. 55.2 15.4 SFF Majority Partial Oxley 55.9 30.2 .. 13.9 NAT First Preferences Parramatta 56.1 36.4 .. 7.5 LIB First Preferences Penrith 43.4 41.1 .. 15.5 LIB Plurality Full Pittwater (GRN) 60.5 .. 24.9 14.7 LIB First Preferences Port Macquarie 65.8 27.9 .. 6.3 NAT First Preferences Port Stephens 41.2 51.9 .. 6.9 ALP Majority Partial Prospect 36.0 55.5 .. 8.5 ALP First Preferences Riverstone 54.8 42.5 .. 2.7 LIB First Preferences Rockdale 35.6 52.4 .. 12.1 ALP Majority Partial Ryde 53.7 37.4 .. 8.9 LIB Majority Partial Seven Hills 52.2 40.4 .. 7.4 LIB First Preferences Shellharbour 29.2 62.8 .. 8.0 ALP First Preferences South Coast 57.1 37.2 .. 5.7 LIB First Preferences Strathfield 41.6 50.9 .. 7.5 ALP Majority Full Summer Hill 25.2 65.6 .. 9.2 ALP Majority Partial Swansea 35.5 54.5 .. 10.1 ALP Majority Partial Sydney (IND) 32.7 .. 52.9 14.4 IND Majority Full Tamworth (IND) 60.3 .. 24.5 15.1 NAT First Preferences Terrigal 55.3 33.4 .. 11.3 LIB First Preferences The Entrance 39.9 49.2 .. 10.9 ALP Plurality Full Tweed 49.8 40.8 .. 9.4 NAT Plurality Partial Upper Hunter 39.9 36.0 .. 24.2 NAT Plurality Full Vaucluse (GRN) 61.4 .. 27.2 11.4 LIB First Preferences Wagga Wagga (IND) 29.2 .. 55.3 15.5 IND Majority Partial Wakehurst 62.0 25.3 .. 12.7 LIB First Preferences Wallsend 22.6 69.3 .. 8.1 ALP First Preferences Willoughby 60.9 24.8 .. 14.3 LIB First Preferences Wollondilly 41.4 .. 33.2 25.4 LIB Plurality Full Wollongong 24.5 61.0 .. 14.6 ALP First Preferences Wyong 34.1 56.7 .. 9.2 ALP First Preferences State-wide 2CP 43.7 36.7 8.0 11.6 State-wide 2PP 45.1 41.6 .. 13.3 Underlining indicates winning party percentage in plurality contests. Elsewhere in this publication, two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated as a percentage of the votes remaining in the count. In this table, they are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote, so the sum of the two-candidate preferred percentages and the exhausted percentage will round to 100.

Page 42: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

36

Final Count Percentages and Results Basis The final two columns of the table on the previous pages show a 'Results basis' and 'Required Preferences' category for each district. These categories are defined as follows.

Results Basis Categories First Preferences The winning candidate achieved a majority of the formal vote on first preferences

Majority The winning candidate reached a majority of the formal vote after the distribution of preferences

Plurality The winning candidate achieved a majority of the votes remaining in the count after preferences, but a plurality (less than 50%) of the formal vote.

From 2nd The winning candidate was placed second on first preferences.

Of the 93 districts, 50 were won by candidates on first preferences, 24 by candidates with a majority after preferences, and 19 with a plurality after preferences, including two seats (Ballina, Lismore) where the second placed candidate won.

Required Preferences Categories (no entry) Preferences were not required. (First preference win)

Full All other candidates needed to have their votes distributed as preferences before the winning candidate achieved a majority of the votes remaining in the count.

Partial The wining candidate achieved a majority of the vote remaining in the count before all candidates were excluded.

Of the 93 districts, 50 did not require preferences to be distributed, 22 required only a partial distribution of preferences (20 majority wins, two pluralities), and 21 required a full distribution of preferences (four majority wins, 17 plurality wins including two plurality wins from second place).

Note that while complete preference distributions were not required in 72 districts, they were still carried out for information purposes.

Summary of Seats won on Preferences by Party First Plurality Party Preferences Majority Plurality from 2nd Total Liberal 25 4 6 .. 35 National 7 2 4 .. 13 Labor 17 14 4 1 36 Greens .. 1 1 1 3 SFF .. 1 2 .. 3 Independents 1 2 .. .. 3 Total 50 24 17 2 93

The highest exhausted vote percentages at the end of a count were 25.4% in Wollondilly, 24.2% in Upper Hunter, 23.9% in Barwon, 21.6% in Coffs Harbour and 21.0% in Dubbo.

The lowest after preference winning votes expressed as a percentage of the formal vote were 39.9% in Upper Hunter, 41.1% in Dubbo and 41.4% in Wollondilly.

Page 43: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

37

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: NEW ELECTORAL PENDULUM

District Margin District Margin LIBERAL (35) / NATIONAL (13) Northen Tablelands (NAT) 32.8 Tamworth (NAT v IND 21.1) 29.5 Cootamundra (NAT) 27.1 Davidson (v GRN 25.2) 25.5 Murray (SFF held) 24.9 Castle Hill 24.7 Pittwater (v GRN 20.8) 22.4 Willoughby 21.0 Wakehurst 21.0 Vaucluse (v GRN 19.3) 20.6 Ku-ring-gai 20.5 Port Macquarie (NAT) 20.3 Cronulla 19.6 Baulkham Hills 18.7 Dubbo (NAT v IND 2.0) 18.2 Bathurst (NAT) 17.9 North Shore (v IND 11.1) 17.8 Hawkesbury 17.5 Hornsby 16.3 Albury 16.0 Orange (SFF held) 15.1 Drummoyne 15.0 Oxley (NAT) 14.9 Manly (v IND 12.9) 14.7 Miranda 14.6 Clarence (NAT) 14.5 Lane Cove 14.3 Wollondilly (v IND 5.5) 13.8 Epping 12.4 Terrigal 12.3 Kiama 12.0 Monaro (NAT) 11.6 Mulgoa 11.3 Coffs Harbour (NAT v IND 10.3) 10.8 Parramatta 10.6 South Coast 10.6 Oatley 10.5 Myall Lakes (NAT) 9.2 Ryde 9.0 Camden 7.6 Wagga Wagga (IND held) 7.5 Bega 6.9 Seven Hills 6.4 Riverstone 6.3 Tweed (NAT) 5.0 Heathcote 5.0 Goulburn 3.5 Holsworthy 3.3 Sydney (IND held) 3.0 Upper Hunter (NAT) 2.6 Barwon (SFF held) 2.5 Penrith 1.3 East Hills 0.5

LABOR (36) Newtown (GRN held) 27.7 Cabramatta (12.9 v IND) 25.5 Wallsend 25.4 Lakemba 22.4 Summer Hill 22.3 Wollongong 21.4 Balmain (GRN held) 20.5 Keira 19.7 Cessnock 19.3 Shellharbour 18.3 Fairfield 17.9 Blacktown 17.7 Newcastle 17.7 Campbelltown 17.0 Liverpool 16.7 Mount Druitt 16.4 Heffron 15.1 Blue Mountains 14.9 Macquarie Fields 14.8 Bankstown 13.8 Maitland 13.2 Canterbury 13.0 Wyong 12.4 Charlestown 12.4 Prospect 10.7 Swansea 10.6 Rockdale 9.5 Auburn 9.1 Maroubra 8.5 Granville 7.6 Lake Macquarie (IND held) 7.4 Gosford 7.3 Londonderry 6.5 Port Stephens 5.8 The Entrance 5.2 Strathfield 5.0 Ballina (GRN held) 4.3 Kogarah 1.8 Coogee 1.6 Lismore 1.3 OTHERS (9) Lake Macquarie (IND v ALP) 22.1 Wagga Wagga (IND v NAT) 15.5 Orange (SFF v NAT) 15.2 Newtown (GRN v ALP) 13.8 Sydney (IND v LIB) 11.8 Balmain (GRN v ALP) 10.0 Barwon (SFF v NAT) 6.6 Ballina (GRN v NAT) 5.4 Murray (SFF v NAT) 3.5

All 93 districts are listed in order of descending Labor or Coalition 2-party preferred margin. Independent and Green held districts are shown bottom right with their 2-candidate preferred margins, but also in bold according to 2-party preferred margins. Alternative 2-candidate preferred margins and opposing party in Coalition and Labor-held districts are shown in brackets. Underlining indicates districts changing party status at the 2011 election.

Page 44: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

38

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: DISTRICTS RANKED BY TWO-PARTY PREFERRED SWING

2-Party 2-Party Electoral Districts Swing Electoral Districts Swing Swing to Labor Manly 1 13.7 Camden 10.7 Barwon 1 10.4 Newcastle 10.3 Campbelltown 9.7 Cabramatta 1 8.3 Wollongong 7.9 Prospect 7.3 Gosford 7.0 Blue Mountains 6.7 Macquarie Fields 6.7 Orange 1 6.6 Riverstone 5.9 Pittwater 1 5.5 Granville 5.5 Wagga Wagga 1 5.4 Penrith 4.9 The Entrance 4.8 Rockdale 4.8 Castle Hill 4.7 Vaucluse 1 4.7 Balmain 1 4.7 Wallsend 4.6 Coogee 4.6 Blacktown 4.6 Wakehurst 4.2 North Shore 1 4.1 Epping 3.8 Drummoyne 3.8 Wyong 3.7 Sydney 1 3.7 Coffs Harbour 1 3.5 Davidson 1 3.5 Lane Cove 3.5 Wollondilly 1 3.5 Holsworthy 3.4 Newtown 1 3.2 Strathfield 3.2 Auburn 3.2 Baulkham Hills 3.1 Goulburn 3.1 Willoughby 2.8 Hornsby 2.6 Heathcote 2.6 Ryde 2.6 Ku-ring-gai 2.5 Seven Hills 2.4 Keira 2.4

Dubbo 1 2.3 Parramatta 2.2 Summer Hill 2.2 Lismore 1.6 Cronulla 1.3 Shellharbour 1.3 Ballina 1 1.3 Bega 1.3 Port Stephens 1.0 Heffron 1.0 Mount Druitt 1.0 Lakemba 0.9 Hawkesbury 0.3 Murray 1 0.3 Fairfield 0.1 Swing to Coalition East Hills 0.1 Bankstown 0.2 Upper Hunter 0.4 Myall Lakes 0.5 Tamworth 1 0.5 Charlestown 0.5 Maitland 0.6 South Coast 0.9 Port Macquarie 1.3 Miranda 1.6 Mulgoa 1.7 Tweed 1.8 Bathurst 2.1 Londonderry 2.4 Maroubra 2.4 Swansea 2.4 Cessnock 2.7 Canterbury 2.7 Albury 2.7 Terrigal 3.3 Kiama 3.3 Oatley 3.9 Oxley 4.0 Liverpool 4.2 Clarence 4.8 Kogarah 5.1 Northern Tablelands 5.8 Lake Macquarie 1 5.8 Cootamundra 6.6 Monaro 9.1

Underlining indicates seats that changed party status at the 2019 elections. 1 – indicates seats that were not two-party preferred contests at the 2019 election.

Page 45: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

39

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: DISTRICT SWINGS RANKED BY PRE-ELECTION MARGIN

2-Party 2-Party Electoral District (Margin) Swing Electoral District (Margin) Swing Newtown (GRN held) +3.2 Cessnock (ALP 22.0%) -2.7 Lakemba (ALP 21.6%) +0.9 Liverpool (ALP 20.9%) -4.2 Wallsend (ALP 20.8%) +4.6 Summer Hill (ALP 20.1%) +2.2 Fairfield (ALP 17.8%) +0.1 Keira (ALP 17.4%) +2.4 Cabramatta (ALP 17.2%) +8.3 Shellharbour (ALP 17.0%) +1.3 Balmain (GRN held) +4.7 Canterbury (ALP 15.7%) -2.7 Mount Druitt (ALP 15.4%) +1.0 Heffron (ALP 14.1%) +1.0 Bankstown (ALP 14.0%) -0.2 Maitland (ALP 13.8%) -0.6 Wollongong (ALP 13.4%) +7.9 Blacktown (ALP 13.2%) +4.6 Lake Macquarie (IND 13.2%) -5.8 Swansea (ALP 13.0%) -2.4 Charlestown (ALP 12.9%) -0.5 Maroubra (ALP 10.8%) -2.4 Londonderry (ALP 8.8%) -2.4 Wyong (ALP 8.7%) +3.7 Blue Mountains (ALP 8.1%) +6.7 Macquarie Fields (ALP 8.1%) +6.7 Newcastle (ALP 7.4%) +10.3 Campbelltown (ALP 7.3%) +9.7 Kogarah (ALP 6.9%) -5.1 Auburn (ALP 5.9%) +3.2 Rockdale (ALP 4.8%) +4.8 Port Stephens (ALP 4.7%) +1.0 Prospect (ALP 3.4%) +7.3 Ballina (GRN held) +1.3 Granville (ALP 2.1%) +5.5 Strathfield (ALP 1.8%) +3.2 The Entrance (ALP 0.4%) +4.8 Gosford (ALP 0.2%) +7.0 Lismore (NAT 0.2%) +1.6 East Hills (LIB 0.4%) -0.1 Upper Hunter (NAT 2.2%) -0.4 Monaro (NAT 2.5%) -9.1 Coogee (LIB 2.9%) +4.6 Tweed (NAT 3.2%) -1.8 Penrith (LIB 6.2%) +4.9 Oatley (LIB 6.6%) -3.9 Goulburn (LIB 6.6%) +3.1

Sydney (IND 6.7%) +3.7 Holsworthy (LIB 6.7%) +3.4 Heathcote (LIB 7.6%) +2.6 Bega (LIB 8.2%) +1.3 Kiama (LIB 8.7%) -3.3 Myall Lakes (NAT 8.7%) -0.5 Seven Hills (LIB 8.7%) +2.4 Terrigal (LIB 9.0%) -3.3 South Coast (LIB 9.6%) -0.9 Mulgoa (LIB 9.7%) -1.7 Clarence (NAT 9.7%) -4.8 Oxley (NAT 10.9%) -4.0 Ryde (LIB 11.5%) +2.6 Riverstone (LIB 12.2%) +5.9 Parramatta (LIB 12.9%) +2.2 Barwon (NAT 12.9%) +10.4 Wagga Wagga (NAT 12.9%) +5.4 Miranda (LIB 13.0%) -1.6 Albury (LIB 13.2%) -2.7 Coffs Harbour (NAT 14.3%) +3.5 Bathurst (NAT 15.8%) -2.1 Epping (LIB 16.2%) +3.8 Wollondilly (LIB 17.3%) +3.5 Hawkesbury (LIB 17.8%) +0.3 Lane Cove (LIB 17.8%) +3.5 Camden (LIB 18.3%) +10.7 Drummoyne (LIB 18.8%) +3.8 Hornsby (LIB 18.9%) +2.6 Port Macquarie (NAT 19.0%) -1.3 Cootamundra (NAT 20.4%) -6.6 Dubbo (NAT 20.4%) +2.3 Cronulla (LIB 20.9%) +1.3 Orange (NAT 21.7%) +6.6 Baulkham Hills (LIB 21.8%) +3.1 North Shore (LIB 21.9%) +4.1 Ku-ring-gai (LIB 23.0%) +2.5 Willoughby (LIB 23.8%) +2.8 Murray (NAT 25.2%) +0.3 Wakehurst (LIB 25.2%) +4.2 Vaucluse (LIB 25.3%) +4.7 Northern Tablelands (NAT 27.1%) -5.8 Pittwater (LIB 27.9%) +5.5 Manly (LIB 28.4%) +13.7 Tamworth (NAT 28.9%) -0.5 Davidson (LIB 29.0%) +3.5 Castle Hill (LIB 29.4%) +4.7

All electorates are listed in pre-election 2-party preferred electoral pendulum order from safe Labor to safe Coalition. Independent and Green held seats are indicated. Underlining indicates seats that changed party status at the 2019, including Orange and Wagga Wagga previously lost at by-elections. '+' indicates two-party preferred swing towards Labor, '-' a swing to the Coalition.

Page 46: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

40

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: TWO-PARTY SWING BY PARTY AND DISTRICT STATUS

2PP Votes 2PP Percent Status (No. of seats) Labor Coalition Labor Coalition Swing Marginal Liberal (2) 42727 41787 50.6 49.4 2.2 to Labor Safe Liberal (12) 226726 310309 42.2 57.8 0.5 to Labor Very Safe Liberal (22) 321699 645067 33.3 66.7 3.9 to Labor Liberal (36) 591152 997163 37.2 62.8 2.6 to Labor Marginal National (4) 75628 91017 45.4 54.6 2.6 to Coalition Safe National (3) 46910 79086 37.2 62.8 3.0 to Coalition Very Safe National (9) 101973 250167 29.0 71.0 0.7 to Coalition National (16) 224511 420270 34.8 65.2 1.3 to Coalition Marginal Labor (8) 197127 145718 57.5 42.5 4.6 to Labor Safe Labor (9) 247978 146453 62.9 37.1 3.3 to Labor Very Safe Labor (17) 498554 239599 67.5 32.5 1.0 to Labor Labor (34) 943659 531770 64.0 36.0 2.5 to Labor Marginal Greens (2) 51784 31699 62.0 38.0 2.7 to Labor Safe Greens (1) 28960 8329 77.7 22.3 3.2 to Labor Greens (3) 80744 40028 66.9 33.1 2.8 to Labor Marginal Others (1) 9380 17460 34.9 65.1 6.6 to Labor Safe Others (2) 30834 28439 52.0 48.0 1.6 to Coalition Very Safe Others (1) 13338 18055 42.5 57.5 5.4 to Labor Others (4) 53552 63954 45.6 54.4 4.6 to Labor Note Districts have been classified by party and pre-election margin based on 2015 election results, except for Orange and Wagga which have been classified based on by-election margin. Swings are calculated by comparing two-party preferred results for the 2019 and 2015 elections. Swings in Green and Other held seats are two-party preferred swings. Electorates with margins under 6% are classed as Marginal, from 6% to 12% as Safe, while electorates with margins above 12% are classified as Very Safe.

Page 47: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

41

REGIONAL SUMMARIES The following tables summarise the election result for different regions of the state. All districts have been classified into three broad regions, Sydney Metropolitan, Hunter/Illawarra and Country. The districts in each region are further categorised into sub-regions as shown below. The party that won each district at the 2019 election is shown in brackets. Seats that changed party status at the election or at by-elections before the election are underlined. Regional/Rural Seats (24) North Coast (8) Ballina (GRN), Clarence (NAT), Coffs Harbour (NAT), Lismore (ALP), Myall

Lakes (NAT), Oxley (NAT), Port Macquarie (NAT), Tweed (NAT) Southern Country (7) Albury (LIB), Bega (LIB), Goulburn (LIB), Monaro (NAT), South Coast (LIB),

Wagga Wagga (IND), Wollondilly (LIB) Western Country (9) Barwon (SFF), Bathurst (NAT), Cootamundra (NAT), Dubbo (NAT), Murray

(SFF), Northern Tablelands (NAT), Orange (SFF), Tamworth (NAT), Upper Hunter (NAT)

Hunter/Illawarra (12) Hunter Valley (8) Cessnock (ALP), Charlestown (ALP), Lake Macquarie (IND), Maitland (ALP),

Newcastle (ALP), Port Stephens (ALP), Swansea (ALP), Wallsend (ALP) Illawarra (4) Keira (ALP), Kiama (LIB), Shellharbour (ALP), Wollongong (ALP) Sydney Metropolitan (57) Central Coast (4) Gosford (ALP), Terrigal (LIB), The Entrance (ALP), Wyong (ALP) Inner-City (10) Balmain (GRN), Coogee (ALP), Drummoyne (LIB), Heffron (ALP), Maroubra

(ALP), Newtown (GRN), Strathfield (ALP), Summer Hill (ALP), Sydney (IND), Vaucluse (LIB)

North Shore (14) Baulkham Hills (LIB), Castle Hill (LIB), Davidson (LIB), Epping (LIB),

Hawkesbury (LIB), Hornsby (LIB), Ku-ring-gai (LIB), Lane Cove (LIB), Manly (LIB), North Shore (LIB), Pittwater (LIB), Ryde (LIB), Wakehurst (LIB), Willoughby (LIB)

Southern Suburbs (8) Canterbury (ALP), Cronulla (LIB), Heathcote (LIB), Kogarah (ALP), Lakemba

(ALP), Miranda (LIB), Oatley (LIB), Rockdale (ALP) Western Suburbs (21) Auburn (ALP), Bankstown (ALP), Blacktown (ALP), Blue Mountains (ALP),

Cabramatta (ALP), Camden (LIB), Campbelltown (ALP), East Hills (LIB), Fairfield (ALP), Granville (ALP), Holsworthy (LIB), Liverpool (ALP), Londonderry (ALP), Macquarie Fields (ALP), Mount Druitt (ALP), Mulgoa (LIB), Parramatta (LIB), Penrith (LIB), Prospect (ALP), Riverstone (LIB), Seven Hills (LIB)

Page 48: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

42

Sydney Metropolitan Roll 3209054

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (29) 1173685 42.5 -3.5 Labor (25) 979376 35.4 +0.7 Greens (2) 275868 10.0 -0.8 SFF 11157 0.4 +0.4 One Nation 29779 1.1 +1.1 Animal Justice 37297 1.3 +1.3 Keep Sydney Open 62878 2.3 +2.3 Sustainable Australia 37377 1.4 +1.4 Christian Dems 31635 1.1 -2.6 Others (1) 124671 4.5 -0.3 Labor 2PP 1200957 48.9 +3.0 Coalition 2PP 1256434 51.1 -3.0 Formal 2763723 96.6 +0.1 Informal 98470 3.4 -0.1 Total / Turnout 2862193 89.2 Hunter Illawarra Roll 701351

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (1) 164039 26.9 -0.2 National 12081 2.0 +0.2 Labor (10) 288403 47.3 +1.2 Greens 59648 9.8 +0.1 SFF 2842 0.5 +0.5 One Nation 5785 0.9 +0.9 Animal Justice 18615 3.1 +2.6 Keep Sydney Open 2998 0.5 +0.5 Sustainable Australia 15412 2.5 +2.5 Christian Dems 1671 0.3 -2.3 Others (1) 37954 6.2 -5.9 Labor 2PP 336809 63.5 +1.3 Coalition 2PP 193408 36.5 -1.3 Formal 609448 96.2 -0.2 Informal 24324 3.8 +0.2 Total / Turnout 633772 90.4

Regional Rural Roll 1361370

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (5) 118286 10.0 -3.4 National (13) 424725 36.0 -4.0 Labor (1) 248364 21.1 -5.3 Greens (1) 99885 8.5 -0.9 SFF (3) 143637 12.2 +12.2 One Nation 14384 1.2 +1.2 Animal Justice 12890 1.1 +1.0 Keep Sydney Open 3200 0.3 +0.3 Sustainable Australia 17042 1.4 +1.4 Christian Dems 3269 0.3 -2.0 Others (1) 93033 7.9 -0.5 Labor 2PP 355852 37.1 .. Coalition 2PP 603343 62.9 .. Formal 1178715 96.7 -0.3 Informal 40103 3.3 +0.3 Total / Turnout 1218818 89.5 Note: Wagga Wagga was contested by the Liberal Party in 2015 and the National Party in 2019. Taking account of this change in candidacy, the change in Liberal vote was -1.2 and the change in National vote -6.3. Central Coast Roll 227779

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (1) 77592 39.8 -4.1 Labor (3) 80460 41.2 +0.6 Greens 17722 9.1 -0.2 SFF 2307 1.2 +1.2 Animal Justice 5254 2.7 +2.7 Keep Sydney Open 1263 0.6 +0.6 Sustainable Australia 3426 1.8 +1.8 Christian Democrats 0 0.0 -2.5 Others 7104 3.6 -0.1 Labor 2PP 92799 53.1 +3.1 Coalition 2PP 82097 46.9 -3.1 Formal 195128 95.9 -0.5 Informal 8255 4.1 +0.5 Total / Turnout 203383 89.3

Page 49: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

43

North Shore Roll 778132

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (14) 388659 56.3 -5.8 Labor 131444 19.0 +1.3 Greens 77300 11.2 -1.8 SFF 4385 0.6 +0.6 One Nation 2250 0.3 +0.3 Animal Justice 9032 1.3 +1.3 Keep Sydney Open 19406 2.8 +2.8 Sustainable Australia 16853 2.4 +2.4 Christian Dems 3926 0.6 -1.9 Others 36904 5.3 +0.6 Labor 2PP 192370 31.7 +4.0 Coalition 2PP 414436 68.3 -4.0 Formal 690159 97.6 +0.2 Informal 17192 2.4 -0.2 Total / Turnout 707351 90.9 Western Suburbs Roll 1197438

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (8) 374961 36.7 -3.3 Labor (13) 465106 45.6 +1.5 Greens 59719 5.9 -0.2 SFF 1276 0.1 +0.1 One Nation 19113 1.9 +1.9 Animal Justice 9664 0.9 +0.9 Keep Sydney Open 11911 1.2 +1.2 Sustainable Australia 9486 0.9 +0.9 Christian Dems 20375 2.0 -3.2 Others 48701 4.8 +0.2 Labor 2PP 513201 56.1 +3.1 Coalition 2PP 401698 43.9 -3.1 Formal 1020312 95.6 +0.1 Informal 46887 4.4 -0.1 Total / Turnout 1067199 89.1 Inner City Roll 561479

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (2) 161494 34.2 -3.8 Labor (5) 150277 31.9 -1.2 Greens (2) 91355 19.4 -1.4 SFF 433 0.1 +0.1 Animal Justice 8818 1.9 +1.5 Keep Sydney Open 23310 4.9 +4.9 Sustainable Australia 5310 1.1 +1.1 Christian Democrats 0 0.0 -1.5 Others (1) 30627 6.5 +0.4 Labor 2PP 228962 56.3 +3.0 Coalition 2PP 178065 43.7 -3.0 Formal 471624 97.7 +0.4 Informal 10973 2.3 -0.4 Total / Turnout 482597 86.0

Southern Suburbs Roll 444226

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (4) 170979 44.2 +1.3 Labor (4) 152089 39.4 -0.2 Greens 29772 7.7 -0.2 SFF 2756 0.7 +0.7 One Nation 8416 2.2 +2.2 Animal Justice 4529 1.2 +1.2 Keep Sydney Open 6988 1.8 +1.8 Sustainable Australia 2302 0.6 +0.6 Christian Dems 7334 1.9 -3.7 Others 1335 0.3 -3.7 Labor 2PP 173625 49.1 -0.2 Coalition 2PP 180138 50.9 +0.2 Formal 386500 96.2 +0.2 Informal 15163 3.8 -0.2 Total / Turnout 401663 90.4 Hunter Seats Roll 463299

Party Votes % Swing Liberal 97722 24.3 -0.7 National 12081 3.0 +0.2 Labor (7) 189408 47.1 +0.3 Greens 33844 8.4 -0.6 SFF 2842 0.7 +0.7 One Nation 5785 1.4 +1.4 Animal Justice 17074 4.2 +3.6 Keep Sydney Open 1962 0.5 +0.5 Sustainable Australia 6449 1.6 +1.6 Christian Democrats 0 0.0 -2.4 Others (1) 35124 8.7 -4.6 Labor 2PP 220106 64.3 +0.8 Coalition 2PP 122172 35.7 -0.8 Formal 402291 96.2 -0.1 Informal 15971 3.8 +0.1 Total / Turnout 418262 90.3 Illawarra Roll 238052

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (1) 66317 32.0 +0.8 Labor (3) 98995 47.8 +3.0 Greens 25804 12.5 +1.5 Animal Justice 1541 0.7 +0.7 Keep Sydney Open 1036 0.5 +0.5 Sustainable Australia 8963 4.3 +4.3 Christian Dems 1671 0.8 -2.3 Others 2830 1.4 -8.5 Labor 2PP 116703 62.1 +2.3 Coalition 2PP 71236 37.9 -2.3 Formal 207157 96.1 -0.3 Informal 8353 3.9 +0.3 Total / Turnout 215510 90.5

Page 50: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

44

North Coast Roll 459365

Party Votes % Swing National (6) 186092 47.3 -1.8 Labor (1) 94762 24.1 -3.2 Greens (1) 54148 13.8 -1.2 SFF 20875 5.3 +5.3 Animal Justice 5508 1.4 +1.2 Keep Sydney Open 850 0.2 +0.2 Sustainable Australia 9754 2.5 +2.5 Christian Dems 0 0.0 -2.6 Others 21222 5.4 -0.5 Labor 2PP 140870 41.3 -0.7 Coalition 2PP 200467 58.7 +0.7 Formal 393211 96.6 -0.5 Informal 13754 3.4 +0.5 Total / Turnout 406965 88.6 Southern Rural Roll 400258

Party Votes % Swing Liberal (5) 118286 34.1 -12.3 National (1) 38503 11.1 +4.2 Labor 86254 24.8 -6.9 Greens 28043 8.1 -0.2 SFF 19447 5.6 +5.6 One Nation 10435 3.0 +3.0 Animal Justice 5103 1.5 +1.5 Keep Sydney Open 1007 0.3 +0.3 Sustainable Australia 3335 1.0 +1.0 Christian Democrats 0 0.0 -2.3 Others (1) 36872 10.6 +6.1 Labor 2PP 115580 40.0 .. Coalition 2PP 173432 60.0 .. Formal 347285 96.6 -0.3 Informal 12339 3.4 +0.3 Total / Turnout 359624 89.8 Note: Wagga Wagga was contested by the Liberal Party in 2015 and the National Party in 2019. Taking account of this change in candidacy, the change in Liberal vote was -4.7 and the change in National vote -3.4.

Western Rural Roll 501747

Party Votes % Swing National (6) 200130 45.7 -11.8 Labor 67348 15.4 -6.2 Greens 17694 4.0 -1.2 SFF (3) 103315 23.6 +23.6 One Nation 3949 0.9 +0.9 Animal Justice 2279 0.5 +0.5 Keep Sydney Open 1343 0.3 +0.3 Sustainable Australia 3953 0.9 +0.9 Christian Dems 3269 0.7 -1.4 Others 34939 8.0 -5.6 Labor 2PP 99402 30.2 -0.3 Coalition 2PP 229444 69.8 +0.3 Formal 438219 96.9 -0.2 Informal 14010 3.1 +0.2 Total / Turnout 452229 90.1

Page 51: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

45

Legislative Assembly By-elections 2015-2019 Canterbury Roll 57264 (12 Nov 2016 – Resignation of Linda Burney) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Kouroushis CDP 8397 19.6 +9.4 Bodell GRN 6393 14.9 +5.3 Cotsis ALP 27993 65.4 +15.2 .... LIB 0.0 -27.0 .... OTH 0.0 -2.9

Final Count Kouroushis CDP 9092 22.2 +22.2 Cotsis ALP 31866 77.8 +12.1 .... LIB 0.0 -34.3 Exhausted 1825 4.3

Formal 42783 95.4 +0.2 Informal 2075 4.6 -0.2 Total Vote / Turnout 44858 78.3 -11.3 Note: Linda Burney resigned to successfully contest Barton at the July 2016 Federal election. Orange Roll 56242 (12 Nov 2016 – Resignation of Andrew Gee) (SFF GAIN FROM NATIONAL) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Bicknell GRN 2739 5.7 -1.1 Barrett NAT 15267 31.6 -34.0 Donato SFF 11487 23.8 +23.8 Duffy IND 3182 6.6 +6.6 Munro IND 4527 9.4 +9.4 Fitzsimon CLR 8865 18.3 -5.0 Decker CDP 1633 3.4 +0.8 Donald IND 644 1.3 +1.3 … OTH 0.0 -1.7

Final Count Barrett NAT 18543 49.9 -21.8 Donato SFF 18593 50.1 +50.1 Fitzsimon CLR 0.0 -28.3 Exhausted 11208 23.2

Formal 48344 97.3 +0.2 Informal 1343 2.7 -0.2 Total Vote / Turnout 49687 88.3 -3.2 Note: Andrew Gee resigned to successfully contest Calare at the July 2016 Federal election. Discontent over the government's original greyhound racing ban, as well as local government amalgamations, helped deliver a narrow majority to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmer Party.

Wollongong Roll 59784 (12 Nov 2016 – Resignation of Noreen Hay) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Scully ALP 23588 48.1 +7.7 Baxter CDP 1769 3.6 +0.7 Bradbery IND 16707 34.0 +34.0 Rossi SFF 1793 3.7 +3.7 Blakey GRN 5216 10.6 +1.1 .... (Rorris) IND 0.0 -20.4 .... LIB 0.0 -21.0 .... OTH 0.0 -5.7

Final Count Scully ALP 26739 58.0 -0.9 Bradbery IND 19336 42.0 +42.0 .... (Rorris) IND 0.0 -41.1 Exhausted 2998 6.1

Formal 49073 96.8 +0.9 Informal 1605 3.2 -0.9 Total Vote / Turnout 50678 84.8 -4.3 Note: Gordon Bradbery was the Lord Mayor of Wollongong and had previously contested Wollongong as an Independent at the 2011 state election. Gosford Roll 55928 (8 Apr 2017 – Resignation of Kathy Smith) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Boyd GRN 3454 7.5 -1.5 Church CDP 1475 3.2 +0.9 Wagstaff AJP 1841 4.0 +4.0 Tesch ALP 22931 49.5 +10.9 Freeman SFF 2378 5.1 +5.1 Pilon LIB 14208 30.7 -11.9 .... OTH -7.5

Final Count Tesch ALP 26440 62.5 +12.3 Pilon LIB 15853 37.5 -12.3 Exhausted 3994 8.6

Formal 46287 97.3 +0.5 Informal 1285 2.7 -0.5 Total Vote / Turnout 47572 85.1 -5.5 Note: Kathy Smith resigned through ill-health and passed away shortly after the by-election.

Page 52: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

46

Manly Roll 55090 (8 Apr 2017 – Resignation of Mike Baird) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Jackman IND 767 1.8 +1.8 Cook IND 306 0.7 +0.7 Bromson VEP 1087 2.5 +2.5 Wright CDP 759 1.8 +0.9 Williams Roldan GRN 7855 18.3 +1.2 Griffin LIB 18775 43.8 -24.2 Clare - 294 0.7 +0.7 Delezio IND 2375 5.5 +5.5 Ridge IND 9332 21.8 +21.8 Waterson - 123 0.3 +0.3 Bush IND 208 0.5 +0.5 Robertson AJP 946 2.2 +2.2 .... ALP 0.0 -12.9 .... OTH 0.0 -1.1

Final Count Williams Roldan GRN 0.0 -25.5 Griffin LIB 20187 60.5 -14.0 Ridge IND 13158 39.5 +39.5 Exhausted 9482 22.1

Formal 42827 97.4 -0.5 Informal 1143 2.6 +0.5 Total Vote / Turnout 43970 79.8 -9.9 Note: By-election held following Mike Baird's resignation as Premier in January 2017. North Shore Roll 54753 (8 Apr 2017 – Resignation of Jillian Skinner) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Fine IND 1182 2.8 +2.8 Corrigan IND 10122 23.9 +23.9 Mutton IND 3456 8.2 +8.2 Wilson LIB 18081 42.8 -15.3 Beaumont Owles VEP 998 2.4 +2.4 Alick GRN 6723 15.9 +1.3 Lessing AJP 911 2.2 +2.2 Nile CDP 819 1.9 +1.1 ... ALP 0.0 -13.8 … OTH 0.0 -12.7

Final Count Corrigan IND 16334 45.3 +45.3 Wilson LIB 19733 54.7 -16.5 Alick GRN 0.0 -28.8 Exhausted 6225 14.7

Formal 42292 98.1 .. Informal 837 1.9 .. Total Vote / Turnout 43129 78.8 -9.4 Note: Jillian Skinner was Health Minister in the Baird government but not included in the Berejiklian ministry.

Blacktown Roll 55926 (14 Oct 2017 – Resignation of John Robertson) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Green CDP 6540 15.1 +9.1 Bali ALP 31031 71.6 +17.7 Winslow GRN 3825 8.8 +2.5 Singha - 1966 4.5 +4.5 ... LIB 0.0 -30.8 … OTH 0.0 -3.0

Final Count Green CDP 7154 17.7 +17.7 Bali ALP 33208 82.3 +19.1 ... LIB 0.0 -36.8 Exhausted 3000 6.9

Formal 43362 95.1 -0.2 Informal 2229 4.9 +0.2 Total Vote / Turnout 45591 81.5 -7.5 Note: John Robertson had been the Labor Leader from 2011 until shortly before the 2015 election. Cootamundra Roll 53529 (14 Oct 2017 – Resignation of Katrina Hodgkinson) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Langfield CDP 1273 2.8 +0.5 Passlow GRN 1238 2.7 -0.8 Stadtmiller SFF 10621 23.3 +23.3 Saleam AFP 453 1.0 +1.0 Sheahan CLR 10930 24.0 -2.0 Cooke NAT 21093 46.2 -19.6 … OTH 0.0 -2.4

Final Count Sheahan CLR 15769 39.5 +10.0 Cooke NAT 24114 60.5 -10.0 Exhausted 5725 12.6

Formal 45608 97.7 +0.4 Informal 1057 2.3 -0.4 Total Vote / Turnout 46665 87.2 -4.7

Page 53: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

47

Murray Roll 55985 (14 Oct 2017 – Resignation of Adrian Piccoli) Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count Mills IND 1363 3.0 -0.8 Robinson IND 1072 2.4 +2.4 Evans NAT 18548 40.7 -14.8 Dalton SFF 14332 31.5 +31.5 Kidd CLR 9324 20.5 +4.3 Goodlass GRN 912 2.0 -0.2 ... (Dalton) IND 0.0 -18.2 … OTH 0.0 -4.1

Final Count Evans NAT 21237 53.3 -19.3 Dalton SFF 18570 46.7 +46.7 ... (Dalton) IND 0.0 -27.3 Exhausted 5744 12.6

2-Party Preferred Evans NAT 22674 59.9 -15.3 Kidd CLR 15166 40.1 +15.3 Exhausted 7711 16.9

Formal 45551 96.9 +0.6 Informal 1466 3.1 -0.6 Total Vote / Turnout 47017 84.0 -3.5 Note: Piccoli had been Education Minister in the Baird government but not part of the Berejiklian ministry.

Wagga Wagga Roll 55220 (8 Sep 2018 – Resignation of Daryl Maguire) INDEPENDENT GAIN FROM LIBERAL Candidate Party Votes % Swing

First Count McDonagh SFF 4682 9.9 +9.9 Ham LIB 12031 25.5 -28.3 McGirr IND 12003 25.4 +25.4 Goodlass GRN 1377 2.9 -2.1 Arentz CDP 900 1.9 -0.5 Funnell IND 5028 10.6 +0.9 Hayes CLR 11197 23.7 -4.4 … OTH 0.0 -1.1

Final Count Ham LIB 15570 40.4 -22.5 McGirr IND 23001 59.6 +59.6 Hayes CLR 0.0 -37.1 Exhausted 8647 18.3

2-Party Preferred Ham LIB 18389 49.9 -13.0 Hayes CLR 18495 50.1 +13.0 Exhausted 10334 21.9

Formal 47218 96.8 .. Informal 1561 3.2 .. Total Vote / Turnout 48779 88.3 -1.9 Note: Former Liberal MP Daryl Maguire resigned after damaging disclosures he made at an ICAC hearing.

Page 54: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

48

Legislative Council - State-wide Totals Seats Change Party (Group) Votes % Vote Swing Quotas Won on 2011 Liberal / National (K) 1,549,751 34.82 -7.79 7.6597 8 -3 Labor / Country Labor (J) 1,321,449 29.69 -1.40 6.5313 7 +2 Greens (D) 432,999 9.73 -0.19 2.1401 2 -1 Pauline Hanson's One Nation (T) 306,933 6.90 +6.90 1.5170 2 +2 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (A) 246,477 5.54 +1.65 1.2182 1 .. Christian Democratic Party (Q) 101,328 2.28 -0.65 0.5008 .. -1 Liberal Democratic Party (O) 96,999 2.18 +2.18 0.4794 .. .. Animal Justice Party (E) 86,713 1.95 +0.17 0.4286 1 +1 Keep Sydney Open (N) 81,508 1.83 +1.83 0.4029 .. .. Sustainable Australia (C) 65,102 1.46 +1.46 0.3218 .. .. Voluntary Euthanasia Party (P) 46,971 1.06 +0.12 0.2322 .. .. Small Business Party (R) 30,409 0.68 +0.68 0.1503 .. .. Australian Conservatives (M) 26,303 0.59 +0.59 0.1300 .. .. Flux (I) 16,212 0.36 +0.36 0.0801 .. .. Socialist Alliance (B) 14,194 0.32 +0.12 0.0702 .. .. Group L (Buckingham) 11,793 0.26 +0.26 0.0583 .. .. Group G 6,543 0.15 +0.15 0.0323 .. .. Advance Australia Party (F) 3,928 0.09 -0.20 0.0194 .. .. Group S 3,207 0.07 +0.07 0.0159 .. .. Ungrouped 2,005 0.05 +0.05 0.0099 .. .. Group H 322 0.01 +0.01 0.0016 .. .. Others 0 0.00 -6.37 Formal 4,451,146 93.65 21 .. Informal 301,681 6.35 +0.70 Total Votes/Turnout 4,752,827 90.16 -0.60 Enrolment 5,271,775 Quota 202,325 Note – Change in vote is calculated compared to percentage votes at the 2015 election, while change in seats won is compared to seats won at the 2011 election. Party Composition of Retiring and Continuing Legislative Councillors.

LIB NAT ALP GRN CDP SFP AJP ONP Seats Continuing 6 3 7 2 1 1 1 .. 21 Retiring 7 4 5 3 1 1 .. .. 21 Newly elected 5 3 7 2 .. 1 1 2 21 Old Council 13 7 12 5 2 2 1 .. 42 New Council 11 6 14 4 1 2 2 2 42 Change -2 -1 +2 -1 -1 .. +1 +2 .. Note – Party affiliation based on party membership at time of election. One of the three Green MLCs elected in 2011, Jeremy Buckingham, parted company with the Greens shortly before the 2019 election and was defeated re-contesting as an Independent. Continuing Green's MLC Justin Field resigned from the party after the 2019 election and now sits as an Independent. Legislative Council Vote Abbreviations ATL – above the line vote BTL – below the line vote.

Page 55: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

49

Incidence of Above and Below the Line Voting No. % of Votes ATL with % BTL Party (Group) Cands. % Vote No Prefs With Prefs Change Votes Liberal / National (K) 15 34.82 72.7 26.1 +15.2 1.2 Labor / Country Labor (J) 21 29.69 71.7 26.5 +11.4 1.9 Greens (D) 21 9.73 53.1 43.1 +13.7 3.9 Pauline Hanson's One Nation (T) 17 6.90 78.2 15.7 .. 6.1 Shooters Fishers and Farmers (A) 18 5.54 75.3 21.1 +8.4 3.6 Christian Democratic Party (Q) 19 2.28 63.9 31.4 +11.2 4.7 Liberal Democratic Party (O) 17 2.18 75.8 20.8 .. 3.3 Animal Justice Party (E) 19 1.95 63.1 33.4 +9.5 3.5 Keep Sydney Open (N) 21 1.83 48.3 47.3 .. 4.4 Sustainable Australia (C) 21 1.46 59.9 35.8 .. 4.2 Voluntary Euthanasia (P) 16 1.06 65.6 29.7 +9.0 4.7 Small Business Party (R) 18 0.68 71.1 24.3 .. 4.6 Australian Conservatives (M) 17 0.59 57.8 35.5 .. 6.7 Flux (I) 15 0.36 69.5 26.0 .. 4.6 Socialist Alliance (B) 18 0.32 47.9 43.2 +14.5 8.9 Group L (Buckingham) 15 0.26 58.7 21.6 .. 19.6 Group G 16 0.15 76.5 17.9 .. 5.6 Advance Australia Party (F) 15 0.09 72.5 21.8 +4.6 5.7 Group S 17 0.07 48.9 33.8 .. 17.3 Ungrouped 8 0.05 .. .. .. 100.0 Group H 2 0.01 .. .. .. 100.0 Election Totals 346 69.7 27.6 +12.3 2.7 Note: The percentage for ATL votes with no preferences, of ATL votes with preferences, and of BTL votes, are calculated as a percentage of total party vote. The three entries for each party add to 100%. The 'Change' column shows the change in the percentage of ATL votes with preferences. An entry for change is only shown for parties that contested both the 2015 and 2019 elections. As a percentage of all votes, ATL votes with preferences increased from 15.3% in 2015 to 27.6% in 2019, ATL votes without preferences declined from 83.0% to 69.7%, and the rate of BTL voting increased from 1.7% to 2.7%. The increase in above the line voting with preferences is almost certainly due to voter experience with the new Senate voting system, introduced in 2016, where voters are instructed to complete at least six preferences above the line. Five MLCs were elected at Count 1 from parties with more than a quota of votes. A further 12 MLCs were elected by Count 17 through the distribution of surplus to quota votes. The final four vacancies were filled by candidates with less than a quota votes on the exclusion of the last un-elected candidate. The table below lists elected members and their party, the order of election and the count when elected. Legislative Council Result – Order of Election At Order Order Count Elected Member (Party) Elected Member (Party) 1 1 Catherine Cusack (Liberal) 2 Tara Moriarty (Country Labor) 3 David Shoebridge (Greens) 4 Mark Latham (One Nation) 5 Mark Banasiak (SFF) 6 6 Niall Blair (National) 7 Penny Sharpe (Labor) 8 Abigail Boyd (Greens) 9 9 Damien Tudehope (Liberal) 10 Greg Donnelly (Labor) 11 11 Taylor Martin (Liberal) 12 Anthony D'Adam (Labor) 13 13 Sara Mitchell (National) 14 Daniel Mookhey (Labor) 15 15 Natalie Ward (Liberal) 16 Peter Primrose (Labor) 17 17 Natasha Maclaren-Jones (Liberal) 343 18 Wes Fang (National) 19 Mark Buttigieg (Labor) 20 Emma Hurst (Animal Justice) 21 Rod Roberts (One Nation)

Page 56: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

50

After the election of the first 17 members, 329 candidates remained in the count. Between Counts 18 and 327, a further 309 candidates were excluded. Count 328 excluded the final candidate of Group S, and Count 329 excluded the second-last Labor candidate. Counts 330 to 342 excluded the final candidate of a further 13 groups. At Count 343 only five candidates remained. Paul Green (CDP) was excluded as the lowest polling candidate, and the four remaining candidates were declared elected without Green's preferences being distributed. The table below summarises the distribution of preferences. The second column shows the change in party votes from initial partial quotas at Count 1 through to Count 327, with the total votes and quota at count 327 in the next two columns. The two columns labelled preferences show the vote and percentage preference flows between Count 327 and the end of the count. The last two columns show the final totals for the five groups on the exclusion of Paul Green. Summary of Legislative Council Preference Distributions Change Count 327 Preferences Final Totals Count 1 Total Counts 327-342 after Count 342 Party (Group) to 327 Votes Quotas Votes % Votes Quotas Liberal/National (K) -1199 132277 0.6538 +25604 5.4 157881 0.7803 Labor (J) -1153 106346 0.5256 +44646 9.4 150995 0.7463 Christian Dems (Q) +671 101999 0.5041 +11109 2.3 113108 0.5590 One Nation (T) -2833 101775 0.5030 +16741 3.5 118516 0.5858 Liberal Dems (O) +652 97651 0.4826 Animal Justice (E) +514 87227 0.4311 +34532 7.2 121759 0.6018 Keep Sydney Open (N) +131 81639 0.4035 Sustainable Aus. (C) +114 65216 0.3223 Vol. Euthanasia (P) +373 47344 0.2340 SFF (A) -1660 42492 0.2100 Small Business (R) +958 31367 0.1550 Greens (D) -721 27628 0.1366 Conservatives (M) +497 26800 0.1325 Flux (I) +52 16264 0.0804 Socialist Alliance (B) +187 14381 0.0711 Group L (Buckingham) +344 12137 0.0600 Group G +12 6555 0.0324 Advance Australia (F) +29 3957 0.0196 Group S +47 3254 0.0161 Ungrouped -2067 0 Group H -334 0 Exhausted +5312 5312 0.0263 +344035 72.2 349365 1.7268 At Count 327, the Animal Justice Party trailed the Christian Democrats, Liberal Democrats and second One Nation candidate. A strong flow of preferences on the exclusion of Sustainable Australia at Count 340 put Animal Justice ahead of the Liberal Democrats, and another strong flow from Keep Sydney Open at Count 341 pushed Animal Justice ahead of the Christian Democrats and One Nation. Count 342 excluded the Liberal Democrats, but with 78.3% of the party's votes exhausting preferences, Animal Justice stayed in the lead and was elected to the 20th vacancy, One Nation filling the 21st, with the Christian Democrats defeated. Between Count 327 and 342, Animal Justice received twice as many preferences as One Nation and three times as many as the Christian Democrats. The Animal Justice Party's victory owed much to lower rates of exhausted preferences amongst left of centre parties. The rates of exhaustion for the Socialist Alliance (50.2%), Greens (48.7%), Voluntary Euthanasia (65.5%), Sustainable Australia (63.1%) and Keep Sydney Open (56.4%) was lower than for the two largest right-of-centre parties, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (76.9%) and the Liberal Democrats (78.3%). The failure of right-of-centre preferences to flow to the Christian Democrats delivered a seat to the Animal Justice Party. Counts 327-342 saw 72.2% of preferences exhaust, down from 83.4% at a similar stage of the count in 2015. This lower rate of exhaustion reflects the higher proportion of ATL votes with preferences being distributed in 2019.

Page 57: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

51

DETAILED LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULTS LEGISLATIVECOUNCIL (Roll 5,271,775, Quota 202,325) Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket

A Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 246,477 5.54 1.2182 96.41 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 185,524 4.17 0.9170 75.27 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 52,100 1.17 0.2575 21.14 BANASIAK Mark (Elected 5) 5,180 0.12 0.0256 COOKE Brett 637 0.01 0.0031 THOMAS Holli 408 0.01 0.0020 COTRONEO Diane 220 .. 0.0011 NOUJAIM Alain 172 .. 0.0009 MULLIGAN Raymond 248 0.01 0.0012 RICHARDS Peter 290 0.01 0.0014 SPEARS Daniel 233 0.01 0.0012 SMITH Benjamin 230 0.01 0.0011 SINGLE Kirsty 246 0.01 0.0012 LESAGE Jason 73 .. 0.0004 WOOD Jacqui 136 .. 0.0007 FARRELL Howard 107 .. 0.0005 ROMANO Karen 78 .. 0.0004 HAWKINS Ray 101 .. 0.0005 HOWDEN John 62 .. 0.0003 SHAW Bob 131 .. 0.0006 COOK David 301 0.01 0.0015

B Socialist Alliance 14,194 0.32 0.0702 91.12 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 6,800 0.15 0.0336 47.91 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 6,134 0.14 0.0303 43.22 EVANS Rachel 820 0.02 0.0041 BOYLE Peter 69 .. 0.0003 ASHBY Sam 57 .. 0.0003 CHUTER Andrew 28 .. 0.0001 SANCHEZ Paula 36 .. 0.0002 CRAIG Phil 32 .. 0.0002 HINMAN Pip 36 .. 0.0002 BASSI Raul 26 .. 0.0001 GLEESON Margaret 18 .. 0.0001 McILROY Jim 13 .. 0.0001 WYNTER Coral 12 .. 0.0001 DOWDELL-PARKES Zebedee 14 .. 0.0001 COBAN Semra 11 .. 0.0001 RODEN Duncan 4 .. .. RYAN-JONES Topia 6 .. .. McALEAR Joel 6 .. .. McGREGOR Nicole 24 .. 0.0001 COLEMAN John 48 .. 0.0002

C Sustainable Australia 65,102 1.46 0.3218 95.75 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 39,026 0.88 0.1929 59.95 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 23,311 0.52 0.1152 35.81 BOURKE William 1,740 0.04 0.0086 KREET Alexander 95 .. 0.0005 YUE Xiaowei 130 .. 0.0006 BURKE Ann 159 .. 0.0008 LANDWEHR Torsten 35 .. 0.0002 GOLDIE Jenny 103 .. 0.0005 LUI Wing In (Catherine) 65 .. 0.0003 MORELLI Bradd 31 .. 0.0002

Page 58: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

52

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket NOONAN Alison 44 .. 0.0002 GRZIC Warren 20 .. 0.0001 O'ROURKE Chris 50 .. 0.0002 ALDEN John 18 .. 0.0001 BRUNNER Ashley 23 .. 0.0001 COTTEE Mike 18 .. 0.0001 WAIGHT Kerry 16 .. 0.0001 REID Peter 28 .. 0.0001 GREEN Jill 60 .. 0.0003 WILDER Michael 13 .. 0.0001 KERRISON Anthea 25 .. 0.0001 MAGNUSSON Alan 8 .. .. WINTER Dean 84 .. 0.0004

D The Greens 432,999 9.73 2.1401 96.14 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 229.768 5.16 1.1356 53.06 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 186,498 4.19 0.9218 43.07 * SHOEBRIDGE David (Re-elected 3) 11,421 0.26 0.0564 BOYD Abigail (Elected 8) 1,531 0.03 0.0076 * WALKER Dawn (Defeated) 824 0.02 0.0041 KANAK Dominic 203 .. 0.0010 SCOTT Jane 360 0.01 0.0018 KIAT Tom 147 .. 0.0007 TAN Monica 362 0.01 0.0018 HICKEY Tony 120 .. 0.0006 MIDDLEBROOK Shaun 101 .. 0.0005 IHLEIN Louise 110 .. 0.0005 ROSS Vicki 118 .. 0.0006 VEITCH Philipa 86 .. 0.0004 ADAMS Tony 130 .. 0.0006 STEER Louise 90 .. 0.0004 PORTEOUS Rochelle 121 .. 0.0006 HESSE Colin 51 .. 0.0003 CHIA Roz 61 .. 0.0003 SAVILLE Lynne 62 .. 0.0003 BLAKEY Cath 142 .. 0.0007 JONES Adrian 47 .. 0.0002 CLARK Philippa 646 0.01 0.0032

E Animal Justice Party 86,713 1.95 0.4286 96.48 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 54,724 1.23 0.2705 63.11 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 28,941 0.65 0.1430 33.38 HURST Emma (Elected 20) 2,227 0.05 0.0110 POLLARD Angela 143 .. 0.0007 POINTING Gregory 68 .. 0.0003 JONES Petra 72 .. 0.0004 GROSS Leon 29 .. 0.0001 HOSKING Karl 38 .. 0.0002 WARD Charlotte 51 .. 0.0003 UNDERWOOD Ian 43 .. 0.0002 COSTELLO Kathleen 73 .. 0.0004 MCGRATH Bryan 30 .. 0.0001 COSTELLO Benjamin 40 .. 0.0002 WHALLEY Jason 29 .. 0.0001 BRIGGS Susanne 39 .. 0.0002 ATWELL David 18 .. 0.0001 EYRE Temple 19 .. 0.0001 SUMMERSON Timothy 11 .. 0.0001 BELLENGER Carol 28 .. 0.0001

Page 59: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

53

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket MOSES Christopher 32 .. 0.0002 WATERS William 58 .. 0.0003

F Advance 3,928 0.09 0.0194 94.27 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 2,848 0.06 0.0141 72.51 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 855 0.02 0.0042 21.77 BROWN Raymond 100 .. 0.0005 CHANDLER Ian 27 .. 0.0001 CLEMENTS Trisha 13 .. 0.0001 CRANFIELD Kevin 10 .. .. VAN JOUR Luke 6 .. .. ROWSTON Trina 4 .. .. CRAIG Geoffrey 10 .. .. COSTIGAN Simon 17 .. 0.0001 EMRICH Eva 5 .. .. MARCHANT Joel 4 .. .. O'DONNELL Michael 11 .. 0.0001 BROWN Leslea 4 .. .. CARRUTHERS Benjamin 3 .. .. WALTER David 1 .. .. BOLAND Helen 10 .. ..

G Group G 6,543 0.15 0.0323 94.36 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 5,004 0.11 0.0247 76.48 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 1,170 0.03 0.0058 17.88 OSBORNE Chris 167 .. 0.0008 STACEY Warwick 14 .. 0.0001 KYRIACOU Ikaros 20 .. 0.0001 DUCKER Helen 22 .. 0.0001 KOLIADIS Kyriakos 15 .. 0.0001 CHAFFEY Margaret 18 .. 0.0001 GERANTONIS Paul 8 .. .. CAMPBELL Steven 16 .. 0.0001 FITZPATRICK Frank 8 .. .. TZEMOPOULOS John 10 .. .. PATRECH Christine 8 .. .. DEMAS Andrew 17 .. 0.0001 SMITH Neil 11 .. 0.0001 AGNEW Nick 5 .. .. OSBORNE Mark 8 .. .. SNELL John 22 .. 0.0001

H Group H 322 0.01 0.0016 0.00 MONAGHAN Anthony 241 0.01 0.0012 MONAGHAN Sharni 81 .. 0.0004

I Flux 16,212 0.36 0.0801 95.44 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 11,265 0.25 0.0557 69.49 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 4,208 0.09 0.0208 25.96 KAYE Max 400 0.01 0.0020 RUSHTON Ben 27 .. 0.0001 GAVRIEL Jason 27 .. 0.0001 SOLTANI Mansour 19 .. 0.0001 GREENUP Shane 24 .. 0.0001 CROSSING Kipling 36 .. 0.0002 BALLINGALL Ben 9 .. .. PAYNE Jessica 45 .. 0.0002 JARVIS Liam 40 .. 0.0002 ROSS-HOPKINS Adam 28 .. 0.0001 SESSELMANN Thomas 21 .. 0.0001

Page 60: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

54

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket HANNA Jesse 14 .. 0.0001 MAY Christopher 4 .. .. DEARING Jordon 6 .. .. GUERRERA Adrian 39 .. 0.0002

J Labor / Country Labor 1,321,449 29.69 6.5313 98.13 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 947,127 21.28 4.6812 71.67 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 349,641 7.86 1.7281 26.46 MORIARTY Tara (CLR) (Elected 2) 11,847 0.27 0.0586 * SHARPE Penny (Re-elected 7) 4,438 0.10 0.0219 * DONNELLY Greg (Re-elected 10) 1,346 0.03 0.0067 D'ADAM Anthony (Elected 12) 560 0.01 0.0028 * MOOKHEY Daniel (Re-elected 14) 427 0.01 0.0021 * PRIMROSE Peter (Re-elected 16) 479 0.01 0.0024 BUTTIGIEG Mark (Elected 19) 428 0.01 0.0021 SIBRAA Julie 519 0.01 0.0026 MIRAN Michelle (CLR) 333 0.01 0.0016 VO Tri 485 0.01 0.0024 SITOU Sally 269 0.01 0.0013 SHEAHAN Charlie (CLR) 228 0.01 0.0011 CHANDRALA Aruna 879 0.02 0.0043 SEKFY Paul (CLR) 86 .. 0.0004 KIM Peter 429 0.01 0.0021 FAROOQUI Sabrin 436 0.01 0.0022 SEWELL Sharon (CLR) 116 .. 0.0006 KEENAN Vanessa (CLR) 205 .. 0.0010 MARTIN Ann 252 0.01 0.0012 WELLER Kim (CLR) 141 .. 0.0007 WARD Pamela 778 0.02 0.0038

K Liberal/The Nationals 1,549,751 34.82 7.6597 98.76 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 1,126,177 25.30 5.5662 72.67 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 404,365 9.08 1.9986 26.09 * CUSACK Catherine (Re-elected 1) 10,958 0.25 0.0542 * BLAIR Niall (NAT) (Re-elected 6) 1,557 0.03 0.0077 + TUDEHOPE Damien (MLA elected 9) 764 0.02 0.0038 * MARTIN Taylor (Re-elected 11) 631 0.01 0.0031 * MITCHELL Sarah (NAT) (Re-elected 13) 571 0.01 0.0028 * WARD Natalie (Re-elected 15) 555 0.01 0.0027 * MACLAREN-JONES Natasha (Re-elected 17) 440 0.01 0.0022 * FANG Wes (NAT) (Re-elected 18) 377 0.01 0.0019 * PHELPS Peter (Defeated) 818 0.02 0.0040 AKHURST Alan 121 .. 0.0006 de GUNST Steven (NAT) 115 .. 0.0006 SINHA Pallavi 783 0.02 0.0039 DALEY Pat 370 0.01 0.0018 LEE Amy 677 0.02 0.0033 CHANTER John (NAT) 472 0.01 0.0023

L Group L 11,793 0.26 0.0583 80.37 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 6,927 0.16 0.0342 58.74 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 2,551 0.06 0.0126 21.63 * BUCKINGHAM Jeremy (Defeated) 2,093 0.05 0.0103 QUINCE David 20 .. 0.0001 MACALLISTER Jane 35 .. 0.0002 WATTS John 16 .. 0.0001 McKENZIE Michele 24 .. 0.0001 WILSON Melinda 14 .. 0.0001 BAYLIS Janelle 16 .. 0.0001 WILLS Pete 12 .. 0.0001

Page 61: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

55

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket SHAW Craig 12 .. 0.0001 WINSLOW Chris 8 .. .. LEWIS Antony 9 .. .. HUTTON Mark 12 .. 0.0001 BECK Lorraine 6 .. .. KENNEDY Eve-Lyn 10 .. .. DARLEY-JONES Patrick 28 .. 0.0001

M Australian Conservatives 26,303 0.59 0.1300 93.32 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 15,201 0.34 0.0751 57.79 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 9,344 0.21 0.0462 35.52 WALSH Greg 1,229 0.03 0.0061 IRAWAN Ben 124 .. 0.0006 GRIGG Colin 120 .. 0.0006 ELLIOTT Robert 32 .. 0.0002 HIBBERT Sonia 26 .. 0.0001 CAIRNS Tim 27 .. 0.0001 LEE Eric 23 .. 0.0001 BINNS Aaron 11 .. 0.0001 DE VRIES Daniel 29 .. 0.0001 SAMRANI Samantha 18 .. 0.0001 VINCENT Sally-Anne 26 .. 0.0001 PALMER Igor 35 .. 0.0002 SARDAR Cheryl 12 .. 0.0001 RIBEIRO Miguel 7 .. .. WIDJAJA Hengki 3 .. .. VINCENT Allan 10 .. .. McLEAN Lachlan 26 .. 0.0001

N Keep Sydney Open 81,508 1.83 0.4029 95.60 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 39,328 0.88 0.1944 48.25 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 38,592 0.87 0.1907 47.35 KOH Tyson 2,355 0.05 0.0116 MILLER Jess 355 0.01 0.0018 MATHESON Jesse 86 .. 0.0004 McNAMEE Daniel 88 .. 0.0004 LEVETT Tori 92 .. 0.0005 FRENCH Wendell 45 .. 0.0002 NICOL Emily 67 .. 0.0003 YIANNOUKAS Stavros 64 .. 0.0003 BECKER Max 41 .. 0.0002 SMITH Jordan 47 .. 0.0002 SIMS Allison 25 .. 0.0001 ESTEBAN Bianca 22 .. 0.0001 GYORY Stephan 31 .. 0.0002 MAHER Eoin 21 .. 0.0001 WHITE Matthew 30 .. 0.0001 FERRER Hugo 40 .. 0.0002 HEATHWOOD James 19 .. 0.0001 GREEN Katie 44 .. 0.0002 THAI-HAYNES Wei 16 .. 0.0001 PARMETER Louisa 27 .. 0.0001 WALKER-CATCHPOLE Brian 73 .. 0.0004

O Liberal Democrats 96,999 2.18 0.4794 96.66 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 73,572 1.65 0.3636 75.85 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 20,188 0.45 0.0998 20.81 LEYONHJELM David 2,366 0.05 0.0117 SPENDER Duncan 135 .. 0.0007 NEVILLE Codie 84 .. 0.0004

Page 62: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

56

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket HOWS Andrew 84 .. 0.0004 RUNGE Peter 41 .. 0.0002 NICKOLS Robert 65 .. 0.0003 RIOS Charles 37 .. 0.0002 DE LIMA Joaquim 48 .. 0.0002 ZAHRA Luke 58 .. 0.0003 MEAD Clinton 36 .. 0.0002 LOVE Dax 40 .. 0.0002 CHEN Charlie 71 .. 0.0004 BRON Alan 22 .. 0.0001 KLAUZNER James 17 .. 0.0001 PIRIE James 18 .. 0.0001 DUNCAN Samuel 40 .. 0.0002 FRANCIS Keith 77 .. 0.0004

P Voluntary Euthanasia Party 46,971 1.06 0.2322 95.26 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 30,814 0.69 0.1523 65.60 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 13,930 0.31 0.0688 29.66 HIGSON Shayne 1,705 0.04 0.0084 DITCHFIELD Luke 52 .. 0.0003 HACKETT Penelope 123 .. 0.0006 HANLEY Julie 43 .. 0.0002 NEWMAN David 24 .. 0.0001 EDWARDS Jessica 34 .. 0.0002 PIEPER David 14 .. 0.0001 EDWARDS Jan 27 .. 0.0001 POTOCNIK Sharon 26 .. 0.0001 WINNING Bill 20 .. 0.0001 LANGHAM Jo 16 .. 0.0001 BEAUMONT OWLES Brian 15 .. 0.0001 KILPATRICK Kym 16 .. 0.0001 DALEY Judith 27 .. 0.0001 STEEP Sandi 9 .. .. SCHILLING Kath 76 .. 0.0004

Q Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 101,328 2.28 0.5008 95.30 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 64,730 1.45 0.3199 63.88 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 31,835 0.72 0.1573 31.42 * GREEN Paul (Defeated) 4,018 0.09 0.0199 WRIGHT Aaron 94 .. 0.0005 TAOUK SLEIMAN Lara 97 .. 0.0005 CLIFFORD Ross 148 .. 0.0007 CUBIS Luke 28 .. 0.0001 BURTON Matthew 40 .. 0.0002 SMITH Beth 54 .. 0.0003 YOUNG Graeme 31 .. 0.0002 OOSTERBEEK Kiah 18 .. 0.0001 MIRZA Benjamin 22 .. 0.0001 CLARKE Helen 27 .. 0.0001 KADWELL Lesley 12 .. 0.0001 PIPER Tania 15 .. 0.0001 BANKS Peter 20 .. 0.0001 GREEN Michelle 21 .. 0.0001 ARGAET Anne 17 .. 0.0001 CLARKE Gregory 17 .. 0.0001 COAN Cecille 6 .. .. KNOX Charles 78 .. 0.0004

R The Small Business Party 30,409 0.68 0.1503 95.40 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 21,631 0.49 0.1069 71.13

Page 63: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

57

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 7,380 0.17 0.0365 24.27 VITHOULKAS Angela 947 0.02 0.0047 GEREIGE John 58 .. 0.0003 COLEMAN Dianne 60 .. 0.0003 ADAMSON Gary 28 .. 0.0001 FINCH Harrison 28 .. 0.0001 WYNYARD Paula 30 .. 0.0001 NGUYEN Hoai 42 .. 0.0002 PREKETES Helen 21 .. 0.0001 TSOLAKIS James 16 .. 0.0001 VITHOULKAS Constentine 13 .. 0.0001 CAMPBELL Julia 19 .. 0.0001 PAMPLIN Jillian 13 .. 0.0001 NICKISSON Brett 9 .. .. FOGARTY Rhaad 10 .. .. MATTHEWS Todd 22 .. 0.0001 STEVIS Tony 9 .. .. COULTER Tatiana 27 .. 0.0001 DOUSKOU Frank 46 .. 0.0002

S Group S 3,207 0.07 0.0159 82.69 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 1,567 0.04 0.0077 48.86 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 1,085 0.02 0.0054 33.83 JANSSON James 225 0.01 0.0011 LEONG Andrea 68 .. 0.0003 SLAVICH Eve 29 .. 0.0001 CLARKE Brendan 29 .. 0.0001 CONSTANTINESCU Liviu 8 .. .. MANICKAM Saritha 13 .. 0.0001 MORELLO Majella 18 .. 0.0001 OBERG James 11 .. 0.0001 MAROSKE Michael 9 .. .. ZENG Raymond 55 .. 0.0003 POWELL Daniel 8 .. .. PFISTER Markus 3 .. .. HAMMOND Aaron 5 .. .. WIGHAM Michael 5 .. .. FINNO Robyn 5 .. .. PAGE Nathan 30 .. 0.0001 CHRISTIAENS Jay 34 .. 0.0002

T Pauline Hanson's One Nation 306,933 6.90 1.5170 93.88 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 240,021 5.39 1.1863 78.20 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 48,130 1.08 0.2379 15.68 LATHAM Mark (Elected 4) 18,021 0.40 0.0891 ROBERTS Rod (Elected 21) 160 .. 0.0008 JACKSON Mick 83 .. 0.0004 KAYES Janet 102 .. 0.0005 ROSS Jason 46 .. 0.0002 BOURNE Bob 35 .. 0.0002 ROBERTS Lynette 44 .. 0.0002 SAKER Vicki 36 .. 0.0002 SAKER Adrian 13 .. 0.0001 BOGARD Greville 11 .. 0.0001 REES Peter 26 .. 0.0001 ROBERTS Cameron 24 .. 0.0001 OTTLEY Damian 16 .. 0.0001 OLLIVER Brian 16 .. 0.0001 ROBERTS Quenten 16 .. 0.0001

Page 64: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

58

Grp Party / Candidate Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket COX Margaret 47 .. 0.0002 COX John 85 .. 0.0004

Ungrouped Candidates 2,005 0.05 0.0099 0.00 EDWARDS Tony 643 0.01 0.0032 ROBERTSON Ellie 248 0.01 0.0012 BRETT John 59 .. 0.0003 BOGAN Ron 126 .. 0.0006 HUNTER John 65 .. 0.0003 HUTCHINSON Bryn 75 .. 0.0004 LIM Danny 644 0.01 0.0032 BROKMAN Andre 145 .. 0.0007

Formal Vote 4,451,146 93.65 Informal 301,681 6.35 Total Votes/Turnout 4,752,827 90.16 Enrolment 5,271,775 Quota 202,325 4.55 Ticket Votes (Total) 4,332,412 97.33 Ticket Votes (no Preferences) 3,102,054 69.69 Ticket Votes (with Preferences) 1,230,358 27.64 Below the Line Votes 118,834 2.67

Page 65: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

59

New and Departing Members Eighty members of the Legislative Assembly were re-elected at the 2015 election, 29 Liberal, 11 National, 33 Labor, three Greens, three Independents and one SFF. This includes Dominic Perrottet who switched seat from Hawkesbury to Epping. There were 10 retirees, five Liberal, four National and one Labor, plus Damien Tudehope transferring from Epping to the Legislative Council. Two sitting members were defeated, Liberal Bruce Notley-Smith in Coogee and National Austin Evans in Murray. There were 13 new MLAs, including six Liberals and two Nationals replacing retiring members in seats held by the Coalition. There were three new Labor MLAs, two being new members for seats gained by Labor, Coogee and Lismore. The third was Lynda Voltz, transferring from the Legislative Council to succeed Luke Foley in Auburn. New Labor MLA Janelle Saffin previously served in the Legislative Council 1995-2003 and the House of Representatives 2007-2013. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party elected two new MLAs in gaining Barwon and Murray. The table below summarises the arrivals and departures in the Assembly. Legislative Assembly – Changes in Membership Electorate Departing MP (Party) Reason New MP (Party) Albury Greg Aplin (LIB) Retired Justin Clancy (LIB) Auburn Luke Foley (ALP) Retired Lynda Voltz (ALP) 1 Barwon Kevin Humphries (NAT) Retired Roy Butler (SFF) Camden Chris Patterson (LIB) Retired Peter Sidgreaves (LIB) Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser (NAT) Retired Gurmesh Singh (NAT) Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith (LIB) Defeated Marjorie O'Neill (ALP) Dubbo Troy Grant (NAT) Retired Dugald Saunders (NAT) East Hills Glenn Brookes (LIB) Retired Wendy Lindsay (LIB) Epping Damien Tudehope (LIB) To Leg Cncl Dominic Perrottet (LIB) 3 Goulburn Pru Goward (LIB) Retired Wendy Tuckerman (LIB) Hawkesbury Dominic Perrottet (LIB) Moved seat Robyn Preston (LIB) 3 Lismore Thomas George (NAT) Retired Janelle Saffin (ALP) Murray Austin Evans (NAT) Defeated Helen Dalton (SFF) Wollondilly Jai Rowell (LIB) 2 Resigned Nathaniel Smith (LIB) Bold indicates seats that changed party status at the 2019 election. 1 Transfer from the Legislative Council 2 Resigned before the election but no by-election held. 3 Dominic Perrottet moved from his seat of Hawkesbury to contest Epping, while Epping MP Damien

Tudehope contested and was elected to the Legislative Council. There were 10 by-elections held during the 2015-19 Parliament, two resulting in a change in party status. Legislative Assembly By-election – Changes in Membership 2015-2019 Electorate Departing MP (Party) Reason New MP (Party) Blacktown John Robertson (ALP) Resigned Stephen Bali (ALP) Canterbury Linda Burney (ALP) Resigned Sophie Cotsis (ALP) Cootamundra Katrina Hodgkinson (NAT) Resigned Steph Cooke (NAT) Gosford Kathy Smith (ALP) Resigned Liesl Tesch (ALP) Manly Mike Baird (LIB) Resigned James Griffin (LIB) Murray Adrian Piccoli (NAT) Resigned Austin Evans (NAT) North Shore Jillian Skinner (LIB) Resigned Felicity Wilson (LIB) Orange Andrew Gee (NAT) Resigned Philip Donato (SFF) Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire (LIB) Resigned Joe McGirr (IND) Wollongong Noreen Hay (ALP) Resigned Paul Scully (ALP) Bold indicates seats that changed party status. See details of by-elections on page 45

Page 66: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

60

Twelve MLCs were re-elected (seven Coalition, four Labor, one Green), five did not re-contest (three Coalition, one Labor, one SFF) while four MLCs were defeated (one each for the Coalition, Greens Christian Democrats and Green turned Independent Jeremy Buckingham). There were nine new MLCs, three Labor, two One Nation, one each for the Greens, SFF and Animal Justice, plus Liberal Damien Tudehope moving from the Legislative Assembly. These changes represented a net loss of three seats for the Coalition, one by the Christian Democrats, and one due to the defeat of Green turned Independent Jeremy Buckingham. Labor and One Nation gained two seats each and Animal Justice gained one seat. The table below summarises the re-elected, departing and newly elected members of the Legislative Council. Legislative Council Party Sitting MLCs Status or New MLCs Liberal Catherine Cusack Re-elected National Niall Blair Re-elected Liberal Taylor Martin Re-elected National Sarah Mitchell Re-elected Liberal Natalie Ward Re-elected Liberal Natasha Maclaren-Jones Re-elected National Wes Fang Re-elected Liberal Peter Phelps Defeated Liberal David Clark Did not contest election Liberal Scot MacDonald Did not contest election National Rick Colless Did not contest election Liberal .. Damien Tudehope Labor Penny Sharp Re-elected Labor Greg Donnelly Re-elected Labor Daniel Mookhey Re-elected Labor Peter Primrose Re-elected Labor Ernest Wong Did not contest election Country Labor ... Tara Moriarty Labor ... Mark D'Adam Labor ... Mark Buttigieg Greens David Shoebridge Re-elected Greens Dawn Walker Defeated Greens ... Abigail Boyd Independent Jeremy Buckingham Greens turned Independent defeated SFF Robert Brown Did not contest election SFF ... Mark Banasiak One Nation ... Mark Latham One Nation ... Rod Roberts Animal Justice ... Emma Hurst Christian Dems Paul Green Defeated Underlining indicates departing or new MLCs Two continuing MLCs elected in 2015 and not facing re-election resigned to contest lower house seats at the 2019 election. Lynda Voltz resigned to successfully contest Auburn and was replaced by new Labor MLC Rose Jackson on 8 May. Ben Franklin resigned to unsuccessfully contest Ballina and was appointed on 8 May to resume his Council seat.

Page 67: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

61

New South Wales Election Results 1947-2015 Legislative Assembly: Percentage Vote By Party 1947-2019 Election ALP LIB NAT DLP DEM CDP GRN ONP OTH 1947 45.9 30.5 10.2 .. .. .. .. .. 13.4 1950 46.7 37.5 9.0 .. .. .. .. .. 6.8 1953 55.0 27.9 11.6 .. .. .. .. .. 5.4 1956 47.2 36.1 10.2 .. .. .. .. .. 6.5 1959 49.1 35.4 8.4 1.3 .. .. .. .. 5.8 1962 48.6 34.9 9.4 1.5 .. .. .. .. 5.7 1965 43.3 39.6 10.2 2.1 .. .. .. .. 4.8 1968 43.1 38.5 10.6 2.3 .. .. .. .. 5.5 1971 45.0 36.1 8.6 3.2 .. .. .. .. 7.1 1973 42.9 33.8 10.5 6.0 .. .. .. .. 6.8 1976 49.8 36.3 10.0 .. .. .. .. .. 3.9 1978 57.8 27.0 9.9 .. 2.6 .. .. .. 2.7 1981 55.7 27.6 11.2 .. 2.5 .. .. .. 2.9 1984 48.8 32.2 10.8 .. 2.8 .. .. .. 5.4 1988 38.5 35.8 13.7 .. 1.8 0.4 .. .. 9.7 1991 39.1 34.2 10.5 .. 5.4 1.2 0.5 .. 9.2 1995 41.3 32.8 11.1 .. 2.8 1.4 2.6 .. 7.9 1999 42.2 24.8 8.9 .. 3.3 1.5 3.9 7.5 7.9 2003 42.7 24.7 9.6 .. 0.9 1.7 8.3 1.3 10.8 2007 39.0 26.9 10.1 .. 0.5 2.5 9.0 .. 12.1 2011 25.6 38.6 12.6 .. .. 3.1 10.3 .. 9.9 2015 34.1 35.1 10.5 .. .. 3.2 10.3 .. 6.8 2019 33.3 32.0 9.6 .. .. 0.8 9.6 1.1 13.6 Note: National Party known as the Country Party until 1981. Christian Democratic Party known as Call to Australia until 1995. Labor total includes Country Labor. Legislative Assembly: Seats Won by Party 1947-2019 Election ALP LIB NAT DLP GRN OTH Total 1947 52 19 15 .. .. 4 90 1950 46 29 17 .. .. 2 94 1953 57 22 14 .. .. 1 94 1956 50 27 15 .. .. 2 94 1959 49 28 16 .. .. 1 94 1962 54 25 14 .. .. 1 94 1965 45 31 16 .. .. 2 94 1968 39 36 17 .. .. 2 94 1971 45 32 17 .. .. 2 96 1973 44 34 18 1 .. 2 99 1976 50 30 18 .. .. 1 99 1978 63 18 17 .. .. 1 99 1981 69 14 14 .. .. 2 99 1984 58 22 15 .. .. 4 99 1988 43 39 20 .. .. 7 109 1991 46 32 17 .. .. 4 99 1995 50 29 17 .. .. 3 99 1999 55 20 13 .. .. 5 93 2003 55 20 12 .. .. 6 93 2007 52 22 13 .. .. 6 93 2011 20 51 18 .. 1 3 93 2015 34 37 17 .. 3 2 93 2019 36 35 13 .. 3 6 93 Note: Underlining indicates the party/parties that formed government after each election.

Page 68: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

62

Legislative Council: Percentage Votes by Party 1978-2019 ALP LIB/NAT DEM CDP GRN SFF ONP Others Informal 1978 54.9 36.3 2.8 .. .. .. .. 6.0 4.1 1981 51.8 33.8 4.0 9.1 .. .. .. 1.3 6.8 1984 46.9 42.6 3.2 6.1 .. .. .. 1.2 6.7 1988 37.5 46.1 2.7 5.7 1.6 .. .. 6.3 8.1 1991 37.3 45.3 6.7 3.6 3.3 .. .. 3.6 5.7 1995 35.3 38.5 3.2 3.0 3.7 2.8 .. 13.5 6.1 1999 37.3 27.4 4.0 3.2 2.9 1.7 6.3 17.2 7.2 2003 43.5 33.3 1.6 3.0 8.6 2.0 1.5 6.5 5.3 2007 39.1 34.2 1.8 4.4 9.1 2.8 .. 8.6 6.1 2011 23.7 47.7 0.8 3.1 11.1 3.7 .. 9.9 5.3 2015 31.1 42.6 0.5 2.9 9.9 3.9 .. 9.0 5.6 2019 29.7 34.8 .. 2.3 9.7 5.5 6.9 11.1 6.3 Note: National Party known as the Country Party until 1981. The Christian Democratic Party (CDP) known as Call to Australia until 1995. The Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party first contested as the Shooters Party in 1995, becoming the Shooters and Fishers Party in 2011. Legislative Council: Seats won by Party 1978-2019 ALP LIB/NAT DEM CDP GRN SP ONP Others Elected 1978 9 6 .. .. .. .. .. .. 15 1981 8 5 1 1 .. .. .. .. 15 1984 7 7 .. 1 .. .. .. .. 15 1988 6 7 1 1 .. .. .. .. 15 1991 6 7 1 1 .. .. .. .. 15 1995 8 8 1 1 1 1 .. 1 21 1999 8 6 1 1 1 .. 1 3 21 2003 10 7 .. 1 2 1 .. .. 21 2007 9 8 .. 1 2 1 .. .. 21 2011 5 11 .. 1 3 1 .. .. 21 2015 7 9 .. 1 2 1 .. 1 21 2019 7 8 .. .. 2 1 2 1 21 Composition of the Legislative Council by Party 1978-2019 ALP LIB/NAT DEM CDP GRN SP ONP Others Seats 1978-81 23 20 .. .. .. .. .. .. 43 1981-84 24 18 1 1 .. .. .. .. 44 1984-88 24 18 1 2 .. .. .. .. 45 1988-91 21 19 2 3 .. .. .. .. 45 1991-95 18 20 2 2 .. .. .. .. 42 1995-99 17 18 2 2 1 1 .. 1 42 1999-2003 16 14 2 2 2 1 1 4 42 2003-07 18 13 1 2 3 1 1 3 42 2007-11 19 15 .. 2 4 2 .. .. 42 2011-15 14 19 .. 2 5 2 .. .. 42 2015-19 12 20 .. 2 5 2 .. 1 42 2019-2023 14 17 .. 1 4 2 2 2 42 Note: Composition based on results at elections and does not take account of resignations and changes of party by elected members between elections.

Page 69: 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results · 2019-10-10 · This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election .It includes

NSW Election 2019

63

Candidates and Groups contesting Legislative Council elections 1978-2019 Election 1978 1981 1984 1988 1991 Vacancies 15 15 15 15 15 Ballot columns 8 9 8 13 12 Candidates 46 48 43 56 54 Election 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Vacancies 21 21 21 21 21 Ballot columns 28 81 16 20 17 Candidates 99 264 284 333 311 Election 2015 2019 Vacancies 21 21 Ballot columns 25 21 Candidates 394 346 All ballot papers included an 'Ungrouped' column, so the number of groups is one less than the number of ballot paper columns. Three groups at the 2015 election and one at the 2019 election did not have an 'above the line' voting box. Notes on Legislative Council elections

There were 15 MLCs elected per election from 1978 to 1991 and 21 since 1995. The divided ballot paper with above the line voting squares and group voting tickets was introduced in 1988. Party names were added to the ballot paper 1991. The reforms introduced for the 2003 election abolished group voting tickets but retained the divided ballot paper with above the line voting squares.