2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #3...DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana...

DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana IRP 3rd Stakeholder Meeting: February 21, 2019

2019 Integrated Resource PlanStakeholder Workshop #3 –

Updated Slide Deck – February 19, 2019

February 21, 2019

I&M Main Office110 East Wayne StreetFort Wayne, IN 46802


TO ACCESS THIS EVENT:

1. Go to: http://aep.adobeconnect.com/share/

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GROUND RULES

Ground Rules

• Everyone will be heard and have the opportunity to contribute • Please be respectful of all opinions and/or proposals• Stick to the time allotted

Housekeeping

• Safety – emergency exits• Restroom locations• Lunch logistics• Please silence phones and if you must take a call, please step

outside the room to do so

3

DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana IRP 3rd Stakeholder Meeting: February 21, 2019 4

I&M’s Key Priorities for the 2019 IRP

Stakeholder Engagement

Continuous Improvement of IRP Processes

Continued DSM/EE Advancement/Deployment

Continued Renewables Deployment

Continued Support for CHP and DG Opportunities

Understanding of Rockport Disposition Options

Develop a reasonable preferred resource plan that balances multiple factors such as cost effectiveness, reliability, portfolio risk and uncertainty to meet the future energy and capacity needs of I&M’s customers

Develop an IRP that meets the requirements of 170 IAC 4-7 (IURC draft proposed rule) and MCL 460.6t(4)


Goals for Today

Today’s Goals:

Discuss IRP Portfolios, Scenarios, Sensitivities & Initial Model Results

Discuss Stakeholder Feedback

Discuss Current IRP Inputs


Updated Stakeholder Process

Meeting Date Topic

1

February 15, 2018Northeast Indiana Innovation

Center3211 Stellhorn Road

Fort Wayne, IN 46815

2018 IRP Kick-off Meeting - Stakeholder Process & Scenario Discussion

2

April 11, 2018 Barnes & Thornburg

11 S. Meridian St.Indianapolis, IN 46204

Considerations for Modeling DSM in the 2018 IRP & Update on the IRP

3

February 21, 2019I&M Main Office110 East Main St.

Ft. Wayne, IN 46802

Updated Inputs, Portfolios, Scenarios & Initial Modeling Results

4

March 22, 2019Minnetrista Gathering Place1200 N. Minnetrista Pkwy.

Muncie, IN 47303

Modeling Results, Preferred Portfolio Discussion & Final Inputs

7

Stakeholder Comments

I&M continues to maintain a comment form on its webpagehttps://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan

Please submit comments by February 27, 2019, so I&M will have time to consider your input before the final stakeholder meeting on March 22, 2019

Specifically, I&M welcomes comments on: Fundamental Commodity Forecast Pricing Assumptions Load Forecast Cost of Technology Options DSM/Energy Efficiency assumptions Sensitivity cases Portfolios to Consider Other

I&M will continue to post stakeholder meeting minutes and comments received through the website


https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan


Today’s Agenda

Opening Remarks Stakeholder Feedback Summary IRP Portfolios, Scenarios, Sensitivities & Initial

Model Results Stakeholder Feedback IRP Inputs Review

Load Forecasting Fundamental Commodity Forecasting DSM/EE Assumptions Cost of Resource/Technology Options

Next Steps8


Today’s Agenda


Model Results Stakeholder Discussion IRP Inputs Review


Next Steps9


Today’s Agenda




Next Steps10


Stakeholder Feedback Summary

The Company has provided and posted responses to Stakeholder comments on its IRP website Some on-going discussions include: DSM/EE Modeling Carbon-free & increased DSM/EE Scenario Lower Renewable Cost Sensitivity Short-term versus Long-Term Capacity Replacement Reporting of Emission data Quantify Rockport Options

The model continues to be available to stakeholders and two training session has been conducted with further sessions planned.

You can continue to submit concerns at the following website: https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan

https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan


Today’s Agenda




Next Steps12


Portfolio Assumptions – I&M Going In Capacity Position (MW)

13

2022 – Rockport 2 Lease Expires2028 – Rockport 1 Retires2034 – Cook 1 Retires2037 – Cook 2 Retires

Upcoming Key Milestones & IRP Planning Assumptions:

The Company is “Short” capacity beginning in 2022, which will provide an opportunity to invest in alternative renewable and supply- & demand-side resources in the future


Portfolio Assumptions – I&M Going In Energy Position

14

2022 – Rockport 2 Lease Expires2028 – Rockport 1 Retires2034 – Cook 1 Retires2037 – Cook 2 Retires

Upcoming Key Milestones & IRP Planning Assumptions:

Currently, the Company is “Long” energy through 2028, after this, new resources that provide both economic energy and capacity will have an increasing importance to the Company and its future resource mix

15

Initial Scenarios & Portfolios Considered

Initially, the Company has considered 21 different scenarios of varying commodity pricing conditions, load conditions and existing and future resource conditions.

Today’s Presentation is a high level overview of these results and an opportunity to get stakeholder feedback.

Group 2 A - Status Quo cases, except 7A and Group 4 cases are included in these additional slides.


Type NameCommodity

PricingConditions

Load Conditions

1. Base Mid Base2. High Band High Band Base3. Low Band Low Band Base4. Status Quo No Carbon Base5. Case 5 & 5A(RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Mid/Status Quo (A) Base

6. Case 6 & 6A(RP1 FGD 1/2026 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)


7. Case 7 & 7A(RP1 FGD 1/2029 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)


8. Case 8 &8A(RP1 Retires 1/2025; RP2 Lease Extended, FGD 1/2029, & Retires 12/2048)

Mid/Status Quo (A)

Base

9. Transitional Mid Base10. 12 - Year Peaking Mid Base11. 15 - Year Peaking Mid Base12. High Renewables Mid Base13. Low Load Mid Low14. High Load Mid High15. Low Load Low Band Low16. High Load High Band High

Group 5EE

Scenarios17. EE Decrement Method Mid Base

Group 1 Commodity

Pricing Scenarios

Group2 & 2A

Rockport Scenarios

Group 3 IRP

Scenarios

Group 4Load

Scenarios

Updated Slide


Summary of Analyses

• Comparing the Base Optimized Portfolio (Case 1), Transitional Portfolio (Case 9), and High Renewables Portfolio (Case 12):

o Cumulative Present Worth Cost (CPW) of these portfolios through 2048 is roughly the same.

o High Renewables Portfolio post-2048 costs (“end-effects”) are lower than Base and Transitional portfolios.

o Near term cost of High Renewables Portfolio are high relative to Base and Transitional portfolios.

o High Renewables Portfolio has higher “energy position” (MWH generated vs. I&M Load) than other 2 portfolios.

o High Renewables Portfolio reduces CO2 relative to all other portfolios.


Summary of Analyses


Indicative Cost Difference (%) Vs Base Plan (Case 1)

Compared to Case 1, High Renewable (Case 12) has higher costs through 2030, while Transitional Plan (Case 9) is close to or slightly lower cost than the optimal plan (Case 1).

Updated Slide


Summary of Analyses

Detailed System Revenue and Cost Summary

Component

LoadCost

Fuel Costs EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed

+ Variable+ Lease Costs

(Incremental) Capital +

Renewable + VVO Program

Costs

Contract (Revenue)/Cost

Less: Market

Revenue

GRAND TOTAL, Net Utility Costs

(Cost over/under) Case 1 Base

Optimal

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,506,697 659,512 437,228 1,888,759 5,541,135 (84,139) 18,983,560 8,800,938 CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,946,039 TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,746,978

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,254,335 636,418 437,228 1,916,736 5,735,221 (84,139) 18,937,868 8,793,238 (7,701)CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,991,693 45,654TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,784,931 37,953

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 2,447,469 169,006 437,228 2,172,908 9,342,149 (84,139) 19,515,953 8,803,974 3,036CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,456,049 (489,990)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,260,023 (486,954)

Case 1- Base - RP1 Retires 1/29 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 9 - Transitional

Case 12- High Renewables


Preliminary Preferred Plan Considerations

Primarily considering Case 9* optimization results with the following additions:

Include 100MW of Storage by 2030

Include “Micro/Mini-Grid” deployment, up to 100MW, by 2030

Include Residential Energy Efficiency & Demand Response

* Case 9 includes 1,700MW of Solar by 2031, 2,100MW of Wind by 2033 and 1,100MW of NGCC in 2028

Updated Slide


Group 1 – Optimization Summary

• Optimized portfolios were created by the Plexos model under 4 pricing scenarios.

• Developing optimized plans under different pricing scenarios provides insight into how resources provide benefits under various commodity price futures.

• Changes in commodity prices did not result in a significant difference in the amount of EE, Market Purchases, or Natural Gas generation.

• Renewables are selected in all scenarios, but more wind selected in Base and High Band scenarios.

• Solar resources fully subscribed at 1,700MW by 2038 in all scenarios.


Group 1 – Capacity Additions CC & STMP

Cumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Combined Heat and Power, Energy Storage, Demand Response & Combustion Turbine resources were not selected by the model in the Base, High, Low, or Status Quo optimizations. * The description of Short-Term Market Purchase is included in the inputs discussion.acity will have an increasing importance to the Company and its future resource mix


Group 1 – Capacity Additions Wind & Solar

Cumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 1 – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

25

Cases within Group 1 produced similar results

DSM/Energy Efficiency – Group 1 Results Discussion


Case 1 Bundles SelectedResidential Water Heating

Residential BehavioralCommercial VFD

Com. Building Management SystemCommercial HVAC

Commercial Outdoor LightingCommercial Indoor Lighting

Industrial Measures

Cumulative Non-Degraded Energy Efficiency results – Case 1

Updated Slide


Group 1 – Emissions

26In 2038, CO2 emissions are approximately 50% of 2019 expected values. SO2 and NOx reductions are forecasted to be over 90% for the existing resources

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4

2019 12,488 12,518 9,559 12,325 855 845 725 849 2020 12,616 12,969 11,855 12,569 789 807 759 788 2021 12,514 12,797 11,638 12,468 791 806 757 790 2022 12,768 12,645 12,369 12,702 791 780 776 789 2023 7,044 12,938 6,860 6,946 492 903 489 492 2024 7,043 7,589 7,459 7,567 482 491 506 510 2025 7,581 7,557 7,413 7,510 494 490 516 517 2026 6,555 7,499 6,467 6,527 417 474 438 448 2027 6,579 6,539 6,488 6,537 407 402 427 444 2028 8,463 7,796 8,312 8,205 452 432 473 493 2029 3,378 7,743 3,254 3,139 198 467 203 213 2030 3,392 2,758 3,275 3,205 193 161 198 209 2031 3,297 2,655 3,139 3,117 189 156 191 205 2032 3,381 2,705 3,232 3,207 184 152 187 199 2033 3,408 2,764 3,316 3,279 182 154 187 198 2034 4,632 4,516 4,505 4,417 236 233 243 255 2035 4,690 4,574 4,616 4,550 278 275 288 308 2036 4,629 4,489 4,621 4,565 279 274 291 312 2037 6,388 6,109 6,352 6,212 328 320 339 357 2038 6,723 6,451 6,650 6,425 435 428 454 487

Total System CO2 Emissions in Tons (000s) Total System CO2 Emissions in lb/MWh


Group 2 Scenarios Overview

27

Group 2 (Rockport Scenarios) – Base

5. Case 5• Rockport Unit 1 (RP1) Retires EOY 2028 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease

Extension6. Case 6

• RP1 installs FGD in Jan. 2026, retires EOY 2044 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease Extension

7. Case 7• RP1 installs FGD in Jan. 2029, retires EOY 2044 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease

Extension8. Case 8

• RP1 Retires EOY 2025 & RP2 Lease Extended + FGD in Jan. 2029, retires EOY 2048



• The Rockport portfolios considered support the Company’s current Case 1 planning assumptions for Rockport

• In all Rockport portfolios considered, Short-Term Market Purchases, Natural Gas Combined Cycle and Renewable resources provide economic capacity and energy at lower costs under Base Commodity pricing

• The Company continues to analyze these portfolios under Status Quo Commodity pricing and will provide these results at the next Stakeholder meeting


Group 2 – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2 – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW



32

In 2038, Case 5 CO2 emissions are approximately 50% of 2019 expected values. SO2 is reduced 97% in Case 5 and ~80% in Cases 6, 7 & 8. NOx is reduced 92% in Case 5 and ~75%in Cases 6, 7 & 8.


2019 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,178 855 855 855 844 2020 12,616 12,616 12,616 12,621 789 789 789 787 2021 12,514 12,514 12,514 12,476 791 791 791 789 2022 12,768 12,768 12,768 12,826 791 791 791 793 2023 7,044 6,974 7,000 12,787 492 488 489 745 2024 7,043 7,606 7,608 12,653 482 496 496 723 2025 7,581 7,005 7,625 13,218 494 465 498 757 2026 6,555 9,947 6,583 9,708 417 566 419 581 2027 6,579 10,547 6,571 9,422 407 578 407 553 2028 8,463 9,597 6,564 7,518 452 540 409 464 2029 3,378 10,360 10,341 9,644 198 548 547 530 2030 3,392 9,715 9,717 9,344 193 508 508 507 2031 3,297 10,401 10,501 9,782 189 534 538 524 2032 3,381 9,644 9,652 8,881 184 484 485 467 2033 3,408 10,472 10,456 9,863 182 508 507 502 2034 4,632 11,211 11,209 10,697 236 527 526 508 2035 4,690 11,840 11,847 11,198 278 627 628 605 2036 4,629 10,367 10,372 10,764 279 578 578 595 2037 6,388 13,532 13,609 12,993 328 628 630 612 2038 6,723 12,929 12,858 11,826 435 762 760 723

Total System CO2 Emissions in lb/MWhTotal System CO2 Emissions in Tons (000s)


Group 2 Scenarios - Economic Comparison

33

Component

LoadCost


Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue



Optimal


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,096,878 1,620,630 570,168 1,827,324 5,989,263 (84,140) 19,819,347 9,001,479 200,541CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,056,517 110,477TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,057,996 311,018

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,059,258 1,526,404 620,764 1,819,194 5,846,487 (84,140) 19,609,586 8,957,518 156,580CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,090,612 144,573TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,048,130 301,152

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,662,733 1,738,037 689,142 2,880,991 6,034,649 (84,139) 20,800,760 9,899,791 1,098,853CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,869,733 (76,306)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,769,524 1,022,546

Case 5 - RP1 Retires 1/29 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 6- RP1 FGD 1/26 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 7- RP1 FGD 1/29 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 8- RP1 Retires & RP2 Least Extended + 1/29 FGD



Group 2A Scenarios Overview

34

Group 2A (Rockport Scenarios) – Status Quo

Case 5A - Rockport Unit 1 (RP1) Retires EOY 2028 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease Extension

Case 6A - RP1 installs FGD in Jan. 2026, retires EOY 2044 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease Extension

Case 7A - RP1 installs FGD in Jan. 2029, retires EOY 2044 & Rockport Unit 2 (RP2) No Lease Extension

Case 8A - RP1 Retires EOY 2025 & RP2 Lease Extended + FGD in Jan. 2029, retires EOY 2048

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Optimization Summary

• Case 5A, Optimized Status Quo, selects more CC capacity than Cases 6A and 8A that include a “scrubbed” Rockport unit

• All of these cases have very similar Wind, Solar and DSM capacity builds

• Emissions are lowest in Case 5A due to the assumed retirement of both Rockport units

• Case 5A has the lowest CPW when compared to Cases 6A and 8A

• Results for Case 7A are currently under development

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Emissions

39

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A

2019 12,325 12,300 11,978 849 848 836 2020 12,569 12,553 12,616 788 787 787 2021 12,468 12,469 12,387 790 790 786 2022 12,702 12,735 12,788 789 790 791 2023 6,946 7,453 12,740 492 504 753 2024 7,567 7,570 12,615 510 512 750 2025 7,510 6,959 12,609 517 494 771 2026 6,527 9,278 9,639 448 584 606 2027 6,537 9,472 9,336 444 588 588 2028 8,205 9,034 7,647 493 580 520 2029 3,139 9,311 8,843 213 574 557 2030 3,205 9,431 8,811 209 564 540 2031 3,117 10,188 9,541 205 596 572 2032 3,207 9,508 8,690 199 541 509 2033 3,279 10,329 9,679 198 564 542 2034 4,417 10,981 10,538 255 582 569 2035 4,550 11,745 11,066 308 706 683 2036 4,565 10,326 10,702 312 649 669 2037 6,212 13,404 12,826 357 686 668 2038 6,425 12,706 11,606 487 857 816

Total System CO2 Emissions in Tons (000s)Total System CO2 Emissions in

lb/MWh

Updated Slide


Group 2A Scenarios - Economic Comparison

40


LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue


(Cost over/under) Case 4 Status Quo Optimal


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 12,151,819 5,628,248 519,684 570,168 1,803,788 4,671,926 (16,467) 16,016,297 9,278,265 472,727CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,987,034 103,592TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,265,299 576,319

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 12,151,819 6,350,479 508,449 689,142 2,845,521 4,604,560 (16,468) 16,954,370 10,122,963 1,317,425CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,843,768 (39,674)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,966,731 1,277,751

Case 5A - RP1 Retires 1/29 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 6A - RP1 FGD 1/26 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 8A - RP1 Retires & RP2 Least Extended + 1/29 FGD + 1/39 Retires

Updated Slide


Group 3 Scenarios Overview

41

Group 3 Scenarios (Case 1 Assumptions)9. Transitional Portfolio

• Meet energy demand through economically selected resources including universal solar, wind, storage and DSM/EE programs

• CT capacity & Short-Term Market Purchase (STMP) made available beginning in 2022, NGCC beginning in 2028

10. 12 - Year Peaking Plan from Rockport 2 Lease end-date• Meet energy demand through economically selected resources including universal

solar, wind, storage and DSM/EE programs• CT capacity & STMP made available beginning in 2022, NGCC beginning in 2034

11. 15 - Year Peaking Plan from Rockport 2 Lease end-date• Meet energy demand through economically selected resources including universal

solar, wind, storage and DSM/EE programs• CT capacity & STMP made available beginning in 2022, NGCC beginning in 2037

12. High Renewables Plan – Double Wind & Solar + Peaking Plan• 2 times Wind potential at 4,200 MW• 2 times Solar potential at 3,400 MW• CT capacity & STMP available for conventional supply-side options



• Resource selection for Group 3 scenarios remains relatively consistent, except where the timing of NGCC resources were varied.

• Renewables selection is consistent across this Group, except for the High Renewables portfolio that allows for double the amounts of wind and solar resources to be selected.

• DSM resource selection is consistent across the entire Group.

• Significant CO2 reductions are observed in this Group, with the highest in the High Renewables portfolio.

• Increased cost for delaying the Combined Cycle are significant past 2028.

• The High Renewables portfolio receives significant financial benefits due to favorable economics in the “end-effects” period, this is due to ever increasing market energy prices and renewables having a “fixed” production cost.


Group 3 – Capacity Additions STMP, CC, & CTCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 3 – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW



46

In 2038, CO2 emissions are approximately 50% of 2019 expected values for the Case 9 portfolio, while Cases 10, 11 & 12 reduce CO2 emissions further. SO2 and NOx reductions for the existing fleet are forecasted to be over 90% of 2019 values.


2019 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488 855 855 855 855 2020 12,616 12,616 12,616 12,616 789 789 789 789 2021 12,514 12,514 12,514 12,514 791 791 791 791 2022 12,768 12,768 12,768 12,768 784 791 791 768 2023 7,044 7,051 7,051 7,051 481 492 487 460 2024 7,043 7,050 7,050 7,050 466 479 474 436 2025 7,006 7,015 7,015 7,015 462 478 472 424 2026 5,987 5,996 5,996 5,996 385 398 393 345 2027 5,996 6,004 6,004 6,004 373 384 380 327 2028 7,829 5,953 5,953 5,940 422 378 374 312 2029 2,755 920 920 903 163 64 64 50 2030 2,765 918 918 902 160 63 62 47 2031 2,696 924 924 909 157 63 63 47 2032 2,762 947 947 926 155 62 62 45 2033 2,784 945 945 930 155 61 61 44 2034 4,632 2,806 971 952 236 164 66 47 2035 4,690 2,822 945 930 278 197 80 52 2036 4,629 2,808 977 959 279 199 84 54 2037 6,388 5,203 3,402 992 328 291 220 53 2038 6,723 5,475 3,569 1,015 435 398 320 70

Total System CO2 Emissions in lb/MWhTotal System CO2 Emissions in Tons (000s)


Group 3 Scenarios - Economic Comparison

47


Component

LoadCost


Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue



Optimal


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 5,254,335 636,418 437,228 1,916,736 5,735,221 (84,139) 18,937,868 8,793,238 (7,701)CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,991,693 45,654TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,784,931 37,953

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 4,036,504 443,678 437,228 1,917,051 5,729,612 (84,139) 17,000,624 9,314,617 513,679CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,082,630 136,590TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,397,247 650,269

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 3,380,719 334,202 437,228 1,938,783 5,841,391 (84,139) 16,113,644 9,569,846 768,908CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,214,251 268,212TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,784,098 1,037,120

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2018-2048 13,835,307 2,447,469 169,006 437,228 2,172,908 9,342,149 (84,139) 19,515,953 8,803,974 3,036CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,456,049 (489,990)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,260,023 (486,954)

Case 1- Base - RP1 Retires 1/29 & RP2 No Lease Extension

Case 9 - Transitional

Case 12- High Renewables

Case 10- 12 - Year Peaking Plan, CC in 2034

Case 11 - 15 - Year Peaking Plan, CC in 2037



• The following Group 4 slides, compare the various Group 4 cases to the appropriate Group 1 cases

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Updated Slide


EE Degradation (Value of Load Reduction) Model Results

58

• The Avoided Cost CPW dollar values do not include cost to achieve the “Decrement” levels

• Results provide insight into the magnitude of DSM program costs that may be justified to reach these Decrement levels

CasePlan Cost

CPW ($000)

Avoided Capacity & Energy Cost CPW over

Case 1 ($000)

2019-2048 Annual

Levelized Avoided

Cost ($000)

Case 1 - No Decrement to Customer Energy 11,867,769 NA NA

Case 1A - Decrement to Residential Load - 0.25% 11,844,666 (23,103) (4,440)

Case 1B - Decrement to Industrial Load - 0.25% 11,802,903 (64,866) (7,211)

Case 1C - Decrement to Commercial Load - 0.5% 11,773,846 (93,923) (9,401)


Today’s Agenda

59


Model Results Stakeholder Discussion & Feedback IRP Inputs Review – Load Forecasting Next Steps


Today’s Agenda

60

Opening Remarks Stakeholder Feedback Review IRP Portfolios, Scenarios, Sensitivities & Initial

Model Results IRP Inputs Review – Load Forecasting Next Steps


I&M Load Forecast Summary

• I&M’s load has been relatively flat over the past decade and is not expected to grow over the next decade.

Compound Growth Rates

Peak Historical 10-Yr (2008-18) -0.1%Forecast 10-Yr (2019-29) -0.4%

Energy Historical 10-Yr (2008-18) -0.3%Forecast 10-Yr (2019-29) -0.5%


Economic Outlook

.

Gross Regional Product for the I&M service territory is expected to grow in line with the US over the next decade. However, growth in population and non-farm employment are expected to lag the US.

Source: Moody’s Analytics


Load Growth by Jurisdiction

There are a number of wholesale contracts that are expiring in the next couple of years that are not expected to renew (-308 MW in total). Partially offsetting the decline in wholesale load are a number of announced Industrial expansions in IN and MI (+15 MW in total).

-0.2%-0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

-0.1%

-3.9%-4.5%-4.0%-3.5%-3.0%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%

IN Retail MI Retail Wholesale

I&M Long Term Sales Growth Rates by Jurisdiction

Historical 10-Yr (2008-18)Forecast 10-Yr (2019-29)


Retail Load Growth by Class

.

The Residential and Commercial class sales are expected to be essentially flat over the next decade while Industrial sales are expected to see modest growth.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Annu

al G

Wh

Sale

s

I&M GWh Sales(Weather Normalized History & Forecast)

Residential Commercial

Industrial

Historical (2008-18)

Forecast (2019-29)

Residential -0.8% 0.0%Commercial -0.7% 0.1%Industrial 0.4% 0.3%


Adjustments for DSM Programs

The load forecast was adjusted for company sponsored DSM/EE programs that are in the current plan filed with the Commission (through 2020).

Long term DSM/EE amounts are optimized in the IRP modeling (using Plexos).


I&M Load Forecast Scenarios

Based on stakeholder request, an extreme weather scenario was developed assuming cooling degree days increase by 2% per year. The Extreme Weather scenario was within the High and Low Economic scenario boundaries that are evaluated in the IRP modeling.


Today’s Agenda

67


Model Results IRP Inputs Review – Fundamental Commodity

Forecasting Next Steps


Fundamentals

Forecast Process:

Forecast requires iterative solution to satisfy all constraints

LT Capacity Expansion Fuel Forecast

Load Forecast

Emissions Forecast

Capital Costs

Input Aurora Run

Existing Unit Modifications

Yearly Runs (8760 hrs dispatch)

Generate Reports

Emission ConstraintsFuel Burn

Market Price

Output

Recycle


Fundamentals

Forecast Process:

30 Year Normal Weather vs Actual Weather


Analysis and Insight

. The Long-Term Forecast The centerpiece is the Reference (“Base”) Case, it contains:

o Objective input assumptions and output analysis.o Fuel sensitivities used to portray cause-and-effect and provide regulatory

bounding of power prices.o Benchmarking to the EIA and other retained consultancies.

“Scenarios” Collaborative scenarios

o Distributed as a supplement to the Reference (“Base”) Case.o Highlights internal concerns and observations that deviate from

“sensitivities” in that contributing/concurring factors must harmonize.


Fundamentals

Fundamental Forecast – 2018H2:

Base Fundamental Forecast High, Low and Status Quo Carbon Burden Effective 2028

Future Considerations:

Natural Gas Fundamentals Evolving State of Carbon Mitigation

72

Commodity Prices (2018 Forecast – Nominal $)(Prices are not location specific but reflect trading hubs)


73

Commodity Prices (2018 Forecast – Nominal $)(Prices are not location specific but reflect trading hubs)



Scenarios & Sensitivities

Scenarios encapsulate future states in a way that all input variables are simultaneously plausible.Examples include

o “low growth” or o “boom economy”

Sensitivities change a single variable so that its impact within a scenario can be understood. Examples include:

o carbon tax, o high gas prices, o low gas prices

Sensitivities are not the basis for portfolio construction.


Today’s Agenda

75


Model Results IRP Inputs Review – DSM/EE Inputs Next Steps

76

Planning assumptions for I&M IRP development – Energy Efficiency

AP = Achievable Potential HAP = High Achievable Potential; EE bundles are made available as resource options

Residential

Commercial / Industrial

BundleLCOE

($/MWh)

Installed Cost

($/kWh)

Yearly Potential Savings (MWh)

2020-2024


2025-2029


2030-2039


2040-2045

Bundle Life

R - HVAC Equipment - AP $88.01 $0.60 8,759 10,256 11,790 12,346 10.00R - HVAC Equipment - HAP $132.02 $0.90 1,777 1,956 1,799 1,770 10.00

R - Building Shell - AP $162.66 $1.65 1,516 1,623 1,786 1,834 20.00R - Building Shell - HAP $243.99 $2.48 696 615 525 - 20.00

R - Appliances - AP $45.17 $0.26 4,520 4,720 4,969 5,087 8.00 Air Purifier, Dehumidifier, Refrigerator/freezer recyclingR - Appliances - HAP $67.75 $0.40 2,238 2,004 1,689 1,627 8.00

R - Water Heating - AP $34.41 $0.24 6,340 7,232 6,226 5,295 10.00R - Water Heating - HP $51.62 $0.35 3,225 3,304 2,184 1,617 10.00

R - Lighting - AP $88.21 $0.64 - - 1,954 1,866 11.00R - Lighting - HP $132.32 $0.97 - - 592 1,029 11.00

R - Behavioral - AP $108.66 $0.10 28,500 28,500 28,500 28,500 1.00Achievable Potential Sum 49,634 52,331 55,225 54,928

High Achievable Potential Sum 4,711 4,575 4,014 3,398

Measures

Air Source Heat Pump, Geothermal Heat Pump, Ductless Minisplits, Central AC Maintenance, CAC Maintenance, Wifi Thermostats High Efficiency Windows, Reflective Film-Windows, Insulation Sealing

Heat Pump Water Heater, Pipe Insulation, Low Flow Showerhead

Screw-In Lighting to LED (interior and exterior, speciality)

Enhanced Bill Presentation

BundleLCOE

($/MWh)

Installed Cost

($/kWh)


2020-2024


2025-2029


2030-2039


2040-2045

Bundle Life

C - VFD - AP $6.88 $0.06 5,411 5,748 6,484 6,629 14.00C - VFD - HAP $10.31 $0.09 2,599 2,444 2,150 2,200 14.00

C - INDUSTRIAL MEASURES - AP $15.55 $0.11 6,417 5,688 4,636 4,361 10.00C - INDUSTRIAL MEASURES - HAP $23.32 $0.16 2,624 2,003 1,190 999 10.00C - HVAC & REFRIGERATION - AP $10.62 $0.10 10,216 9,875 9,757 9,625 17.00

C - HVAC & REFRIGERATION - HAP $15.93 $0.15 3,921 3,407 2,278 1,970 17.00C - COMMERCIAL OUTDOOR LIGHTING - AP $11.89 $0.10 3,093 3,463 2,688 2,347 14.00

C - COMMERCIAL OUTDOOR LIGHTING - HAP $17.84 $0.15 1,109 1,388 906 738 14.00C - COMMERCIAL INDOOR LIGHTING - AP $11.95 $0.10 20,482 22,707 19,885 17,912 13.00

C - COMMERCIAL INDOOR LIGHTING - HAP $17.93 $0.15 5,707 6,936 4,674 3,591 13.00C - BUILDING MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - AP $28.25 $0.19 4,036 4,253 4,606 4,735 10.00

C - BUILDING MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - HAP $42.37 $0.29 1,770 1,608 1,380 1,325 10.00Achievable Potential Sum 49,656 51,733 48,056 45,609

High Achievable Potential Sum 17,729 17,785 12,579 10,822

Screw-in, High-Bay Fixtures, Interior Lighting - Occupancy Sensors, Linear Lighting

Ventilation - Demand Controlled, RTU - Advanced Controls, Process - Timers and Controls, Compressed Air - Leak Management Program,

Screw-in, High-Bay Fixtures, Interior Lighting - Occupancy Sensors, Linear Lighting

Measures

Ventilation VSC, Pumping System VSD, Compressed Air VSD

Water Cooled Chiller, Chilled Water Reset, Air Cooled Chiller, Ventilation upgrade, HVAC economizer

Retrocomission, Fan System Flow optimization, Pumping system optimization, Water heat upgrade, insulation wall cavity


77

Demand Response Resources: The Company’s DR resources are based on a “BYOT”

Residential program and the Commercial program is a “EIS” light interface with existing customer equipment

Four blocks of each DR resource can be selected per year

DSM/Energy Efficiency

Sector ParticipantsDemand Savings

(kW)

Energy Savings(kWh)

Enrollment/Installation

Cost

Total First Year Cost

Ongoing Annual Cost

Service Life(Years)

Residential 3,375 3,299 837,540 $1,932,250 $1,971,408 $89,158 15

Sector ParticipantsDemand Savings

(kW)

Energy Savings(kWh)

Enrollment/ Installation

Cost

Total First Year Cost

Ongoing Annual Cost

Service Life(Years)

Commercial 44 954 200,647 $468,963 $507,138 $214,524 15


78

DSM/Energy Efficiency

Volt VAR Optimization Resources: I&M has 70 MW of demand reduction potential from VVO; 18 station buses with 46

distribution circuits operating with 6 buses and 19 circuits planned in 2019

Tranche No. of CircuitsCapital

InvestmentAnnual O&M

Demand Reduction

(kW)

Energy Reduction

(MWh)1 32 $10,688,000 $320,640 8,066 33,2112 32 $10,688,000 $320,640 6,443 26,5293 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 6,185 25,4644 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 5,701 23,4735 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 5,413 22,2866 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 5,115 21,0587 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 4,793 19,7348 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 4,574 18,8349 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 4,397 18,10110 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 4,223 17,38611 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 4,004 16,48412 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 3,668 15,10013 33 $11,022,000 $330,660 3,264 13,43914 32 $10,688,000 $320,640 2,549 10,49415 32 $10,688,000 $320,640 1,733 7,137

One Tranche of VVO may be selected per year, based on planning and implementation constraints



Today’s Agenda

79


Model Results IRP Inputs Review – Resource Options Next Steps


IRP Inputs and Assumptions

80

• Supply Side Resource Costs –• Nuclear• Coal with 90% Carbon Capture• Natural Gas Combined Cycle – with & without Carbon

Capture (NGCC)• Natural Gas Simple Cycle (CT)• Short-Term Market Purchase (STMP)• Wind• Solar• Storage• Combined Heat & Power


AEP SystemNew Generation Technologies

Key Supply-Side Resource Option Assumptions (a)(b)(c)

Installed Full Load Fuel Variable Fixed CapacityCapability (MW) (d) Cost (c,e) Heat Rate Cost O&M O&M Factor LCOE (f)

Type Std. ISO Summer Winter ($/kW) (HHV,Btu/kWh) ($/MBtu) ($/MWh) ($/kW-yr) (%) ($/MWh)

Base LoadNuclear 1,610 1,560 1,690 7,900 10,500 0.91 6.24 145.43 80 176.3Pulv. Coal with Carbon Capture (PRB) 540 520 570 9,200 12,500 2.28 5.60 91.79 75 230.6Combined Cycle (1X1 "J" Class) 540 700 720 1,000 6,300 2.94 1.97 10.81 75 62.3Combined Cycle (2X1 "J" Class) 1,080 1,410 1,450 800 6,300 2.94 1.73 9.16 75 57.5Combined Cycle (2X1 "H" Class) 1,150 1,490 1,530 700 6,300 2.94 1.63 8.65 75 55.8

PeakingCombustion Turbine (2 - "E" Class) (g) 180 190 190 1,200 11,700 2.94 3.94 17.60 25 145.9Combustion Turbine (2 - "F" Class, w/evap coolers) (g) 490 500 510 700 10,000 2.94 6.07 15.77 25 114.0Aero-Derivative (2 - Small Machines) (g,h) 120 120 120 1,400 9,900 2.94 2.44 18.93 25 143.8Recip Engine Farm 220 220 230 1,300 8,300 2.94 2.61 6.32 25 123.0Battery 10 10 10 1,900 87% (i) 0.00 0.00 38.99 25 175.8

Notes: (a) Installed cost, capability and heat rate numbers have been rounded(b) All costs in 2018 dollars, except as noted.(c) $/kW costs are based on summer capability(d) All Capabilities are at 1,000 feet above sea level(e) Total Plant Investment Cost w/AFUDC (AEP-East rate of 5.5%,site rating $/kW)(f) Levelized cost of energy based on capacity factors shown in table(g) Includes Dual Fuel capability and SCR environmental installation(h) Includes Black Start capability(i) Denotes efficiency, (w/ power electronics)


81

• Combined Heat and Power resource is assumed to be 15MW, with a full load net heat rate of ~4,800 Btu/kWh and an installed cost of ~$2,100/kW

• Stakeholder requested, AEPSC Generation Engineering developed a Class V estimate for a NGCC with Carbon Capture resource: Highlights include: Overnight Installed cost: $2,050/kW; Full Load Heat Rate: 7,600 Btu/kWh; Controlled CO2 rate: 11.7 lb./mmBtu



82

• Short-Term Market Purchase• A one-year capacity purchase with no associated energy• Up to 1,000MW may be selected in any year• Pricing based on Fundamental Commodity Forecast Scenario



83

Wind Resources for the IRP

• Installed Cost based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s H1 2018 Renewable Energy Market Outlook• Two Tranches Available as a Modeling Constraint – Tranche A & Tranche B both reflect impact of the

Production Tax Credit• 300MW of Wind Available per year; 150MW for each Tranche, with a maximum build over the planning period

of 2,100MW; NOTE: For the 3rd Stakeholder meeting modeling, the max build was mistakenly set to 3,300MW, this will be corrected to 2,100MW going forward

• Expected Capacity Factor: 40.5% for Tranche A & 35% for Tranche B

Source: AEP Based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance H1 2018 US Renewable Energy Market Outlook


• Two Tranches Available as a Modeling Constraint – Tier 1 and Tier 2 Pricing with Normalized Investment Tax Credit impact

• 300MW of Solar Available per year; 150MW at Tier 1 & 150MW at Tier 2, with a maximum build over the planning period of 1,700MW

• Expected Capacity Factor ~24.4%, from Single Axis Tracking system• For a 2021 Commercial Operation Date ~LCOE $62 to $68/MWh


84

Solar Resources for the IRP

Source: AEP Based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance H1 2018 US Renewable Energy Market Outlook



85

Energy Storage – 10MW/40MWh Resource

• Based on Lithium Ion technology, Energy Product• Cost Estimates based on Internal Estimates and information from EPRI and Storage Suppliers



86Forecast is based on PJM’s November 27, 2018 Distributed Solar Forecast


Today’s Agenda

87


Model Results IRP Inputs Review – Resource Options Next Steps

88

Final Steps to Filing I&M’s IRP on May 1, 2019


Today - Stakeholder Meeting #3, February 21, 2019 Discuss stakeholder feedback on IRP inputs, scenarios, sensitivities,

portfolios and initial modeling results

Stakeholders provide final comments on inputs, scenarios and portfolios by February 27, 2019

Following today, I&M will begin final modeling and develop its preliminary preferred plan

I&M will discuss the final modeling results and draft preferred plan with stakeholders on March 22, 2019 at Stakeholder Meeting #4. Collect stakeholder feedback on final modeling and draft preferred

plan

Following meeting #4, I&M will finalize modeling and preferred resource plan and prepare final report for filing on May 1, 2019


Updated Stakeholder Process

Meeting Date Topic

1

February 15, 2018Northeast Indiana Innovation

Center3211 Stellhorn Road

Fort Wayne, IN 46815

2018 IRP Kick-off Meeting - Stakeholder Process & Scenario Discussion

2

April 11, 2018 Barnes & Thornburg

11 S. Meridian St.Indianapolis, IN 46204

Considerations for Modeling DSM in the 2018 IRP & Update on the IRP

3

February 21, 2019I&M Main Office110 East Main St.

Ft. Wayne, IN 46802

Updated Inputs, Portfolios, Scenarios & Initial Modeling Results

4

March 22, 2019Minnetrista Gathering Place1200 N. Minnetrista Pkwy.

Muncie, IN 47303

Modeling Results, Preferred Portfolio Discussion & Final Inputs


90

Appendix


Group 1 – Short-Term Market Purchase*

91Note: Combined Heat and Power, Energy Storage, Demand Response & Combustion Turbine resources were not selected by the model in the Base, High, Low, or Status Quo optimizations. * The description of Short-Term Market Purchase in included in the inputs discussion.

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 500 500 550 500 0 0 50 02024 450 50 150 100 0 (400) (300) (350)2025 50 0 100 50 0 (50) 50 02026 0 0 50 50 0 0 50 502027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02028 0 250 100 100 0 250 100 1002029 0 150 50 50 0 150 50 502030 0 50 0 0 0 50 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02037 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 502038 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 50

Difference Over Case 1Short-Term Market Purchase Firm Capacity (MW)


Group 1 – Combined Cycle

92

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2024 0 373 373 373 0 373 373 373

2025 373 373 373 373 0 0 0 02026 373 373 373 373 0 0 0 02027 373 373 373 373 0 0 0 02028 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02029 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02030 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02031 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02032 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02033 1,492 1,119 1,492 1,492 0 (373) 0 02034 2,238 2,238 2,238 2,238 0 0 0 02035 2,238 2,238 2,238 2,238 0 0 0 02036 2,238 2,238 2,238 2,238 0 0 0 02037 3,357 3,357 3,357 3,357 0 0 0 02038 3,357 3,357 3,357 3,357 0 0 0 0

Combined-Cycle Firm Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 1 – Commercial EE

93

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 17 16 15 16 0 (1) (1) (1)2021 31 30 30 30 0 (1) (2) (1)2022 45 43 42 43 0 (2) (3) (2)2023 56 53 51 53 0 (3) (5) (3)2024 65 62 59 62 0 (4) (6) (4)2025 71 70 67 70 0 (1) (4) (1)2026 76 76 74 76 0 (0) (2) (1)2027 81 81 79 80 0 1 (1) (0)2028 84 85 83 84 0 1 (0) 02029 75 77 75 75 0 2 0 02030 84 86 83 84 0 2 (1) 02031 83 85 82 84 0 3 (1) 12032 82 86 82 84 0 3 (1) 22033 82 86 81 85 0 4 (1) 32034 81 84 81 84 0 3 (1) 32035 79 81 79 82 0 3 0 32036 76 78 77 78 0 2 1 22037 47 48 49 49 0 1 2 12038 67 68 70 68 0 1 2 1

Commercial EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 1 – Residential EE

94

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 2 5 0 0 0 3 (2) (2)2024 10 3 0 6 0 (7) (10) (4)2025 2 0 0 2 0 (2) (2) (1)2026 1 0 2 0 0 (1) 1 (1)2027 1 0 0 0 0 (1) (1) (1)2028 6 5 0 0 0 (1) (6) (6)2029 0 8 0 5 0 7 (0) 52030 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 12031 0 4 0 2 0 4 0 22032 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 32033 0 14 0 4 0 14 0 42034 8 13 0 13 0 5 (8) 52035 8 12 8 11 0 4 0 42036 8 10 8 10 0 3 0 22037 5 6 6 6 0 1 1 12038 8 8 8 8 0 1 0 1

Residential EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 1 – Utility Solar

95

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 502024 50 149 0 50 0 99 (50) 02025 199 298 99 199 0 99 (99) 02026 348 448 199 249 0 99 (149) (99)2027 497 647 348 398 0 149 (149) (99)2028 647 945 497 547 0 298 (149) (99)2029 796 1,243 647 696 0 448 (149) (99)2030 1,094 1,542 945 995 0 448 (149) (99)2031 1,243 1,691 1,094 1,144 0 448 (149) (99)2032 1,393 1,691 1,243 1,293 0 298 (149) (99)2033 1,542 1,691 1,393 1,442 0 149 (149) (99)2034 1,691 1,691 1,542 1,592 0 0 (149) (99)2035 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02036 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02037 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02038 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 0

Utility Solar Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 1 – Wind

96

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 300 300 300 300 0 0 0 02023 600 600 450 450 0 0 (150) (150)2024 750 750 450 450 0 0 (300) (300)2025 900 900 450 450 0 0 (450) (450)2026 1,050 1,050 600 450 0 0 (450) (600)2027 1,200 1,200 750 450 0 0 (450) (750)2028 1,350 1,350 900 450 0 0 (450) (900)2029 1,500 1,500 1,050 450 0 0 (450) (1,050)2030 1,650 1,650 1,200 600 0 0 (450) (1,050)2031 1,800 1,800 1,350 750 0 0 (450) (1,050)2032 1,950 1,950 1,500 900 0 0 (450) (1,050)2033 2,100 2,100 1,650 1,050 0 0 (450) (1,050)2034 2,250 2,250 1,800 1,200 0 0 (450) (1,050)2035 2,400 2,400 1,950 1,350 0 0 (450) (1,050)2036 2,550 2,550 2,100 1,500 0 0 (450) (1,050)2037 2,700 2,700 2,250 1,650 0 0 (450) (1,050)2038 2,850 2,850 2,400 1,800 0 0 (450) (1,050)

Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 1 – VVO

97

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 42019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02028 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 02029 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 02030 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 02031 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 02032 0 16 0 0 0 16 0 02033 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 02034 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 02035 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 02036 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 02037 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 02038 0 16 9 0 0 16 9 0

VVO Firm Capacity (MW)Difference Over Case 1


Group 2– Short-Term Market Purchase

98


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 500 500 500 0 0 0 0 (500)2024 450 150 150 0 0 (300) (300) (450)2025 50 50 50 350 0 0 0 3002026 0 50 0 300 0 50 0 3002027 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 2002028 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 1002029 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 502030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02037 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short-Term Market Purchase Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5



99


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 373 373 0 0 373 373 02025 373 373 373 0 0 0 0 (373)2026 373 373 373 0 0 0 0 (373)2027 373 373 373 0 0 0 0 (373)2028 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2029 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2030 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2031 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2032 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2033 1,492 373 373 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,492)2034 2,238 1,119 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2035 2,238 1,119 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2036 2,238 1,119 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2037 3,357 2,238 2,238 2,238 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2038 3,357 2,238 2,238 2,238 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)

Combined-Cycle Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5



100


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 17 15 15 16 0 (1) (1) (1)2021 31 30 30 31 0 (2) (2) (1)2022 45 42 42 44 0 (3) (3) (1)2023 56 53 53 54 0 (3) (3) (2)2024 65 61 61 63 0 (5) (5) (2)2025 71 68 68 71 0 (4) (4) 02026 76 74 74 77 0 (2) (2) 12027 81 79 79 82 0 (1) (1) 12028 84 83 83 85 0 (1) (1) 12029 75 75 75 76 0 (0) (0) 12030 84 84 84 84 0 0 0 12031 83 83 83 83 0 0 0 12032 82 82 82 83 0 0 0 02033 82 82 82 82 0 0 0 02034 81 81 81 81 0 0 0 02035 79 79 79 79 0 0 0 02036 76 76 76 76 0 0 0 02037 47 47 47 47 0 0 0 02038 67 67 67 67 0 0 0 0

Commercial EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5



101


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 2 5 5 0 0 3 3 (2)2024 10 0 0 1 0 (10) (10) (9)2025 2 0 0 11 0 (2) (2) 92026 1 0 0 3 0 (1) (1) 12027 1 0 0 2 0 (1) (1) 22028 6 0 0 2 0 (6) (6) (4)2029 0 0 0 5 0 (0) (0) 52030 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 12031 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 12032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02034 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 02035 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 02036 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 02037 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 02038 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0

Residential EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5



102


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02024 50 0 0 149 0 (50) (50) 992025 199 149 149 298 0 (50) (50) 992026 348 298 298 448 0 (50) (50) 992027 497 448 448 696 0 (50) (50) 1992028 647 597 597 995 0 (50) (50) 3482029 796 746 746 1,243 0 (50) (50) 4482030 1,094 1,044 1,044 1,393 0 (50) (50) 2982031 1,243 1,194 1,194 1,542 0 (50) (50) 2982032 1,393 1,343 1,343 1,691 0 (50) (50) 2982033 1,542 1,492 1,492 1,691 0 (50) (50) 1492034 1,691 1,641 1,641 1,691 0 (50) (50) 02035 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02036 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02037 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 02038 1,691 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0 0

Utility Solar Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5


Group 2 – Wind

103


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 300 300 300 300 0 0 0 02023 600 600 600 600 0 0 0 02024 750 750 750 750 0 0 0 02025 900 900 900 900 0 0 0 02026 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 0 0 0 02027 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 0 0 0 02028 1,350 1,350 1,350 1,350 0 0 0 02029 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 0 0 0 02030 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 0 02031 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 0 0 0 02032 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950 0 0 0 02033 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 0 0 0 02034 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 0 0 0 02035 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 0 0 0 02036 2,550 2,550 2,550 2,550 0 0 0 02037 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 0 0 0 02038 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 0 0 0 0

Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5


Group 2 – VVO

104


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92026 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92027 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92028 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92029 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92030 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92031 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92032 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92033 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 92034 0 9 9 9 0 9 9 92035 0 9 9 9 0 9 9 92036 0 9 9 9 0 9 9 92037 0 9 9 9 0 9 9 92038 0 9 9 9 0 9 9 9

VVO Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5


Group 2A – Short-Term Market Purchase

105


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 500 150 0 0 (350) (500)2024 100 150 0 0 50 (100)2025 50 150 550 0 100 5002026 50 150 150 0 100 1002027 0 100 100 0 100 1002028 100 50 50 0 (50) (50)2029 50 50 50 0 0 02030 0 0 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 02034 0 0 50 0 0 502035 0 0 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 0 0 02037 50 0 0 0 (50) (50)2038 50 0 0 0 (50) (50)

Short-Term Market Purchase Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Combined Cycle

106

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8ACase 5A Case 6A Case 8A

2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 373 0 0 373 02024 373 373 0 0 0 (373)2025 373 373 0 0 0 (373)2026 373 373 373 0 0 02027 373 373 373 0 0 02028 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2029 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2030 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2031 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2032 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2033 1,492 373 373 0 (1,119) (1,119)2034 2,238 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119)2035 2,238 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119)2036 2,238 1,119 1,119 0 (1,119) (1,119)2037 3,357 2,238 2,238 0 (1,119) (1,119)2038 3,357 2,238 2,238 0 (1,119) (1,119)

Combined-Cycle Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Commercial EE

107

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 16 15 15 0 (1) (1)2021 30 30 30 0 (1) (1)2022 43 42 42 0 (0) (0)2023 53 52 52 0 (2) (2)2024 62 60 58 0 (2) (4)2025 70 67 65 0 (3) (5)2026 76 74 72 0 (2) (4)2027 80 79 78 0 (1) (3)2028 84 83 81 0 (1) (3)2029 75 75 73 0 (0) (2)2030 84 83 81 0 (1) (3)2031 84 82 80 0 (2) (4)2032 84 82 80 0 (2) (4)2033 85 82 80 0 (3) (4)2034 84 81 79 0 (3) (5)2035 82 78 77 0 (3) (4)2036 78 74 75 0 (4) (3)2037 49 46 47 0 (3) (2)2038 68 65 67 0 (3) (1)

Commercial EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Residential EE

108

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 02024 6 0 0 0 (6) (6)2025 2 0 0 0 (2) (2)2026 0 0 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 0 0 02028 0 3 0 0 3 02029 5 0 0 0 (5) (5)2030 1 0 0 0 (1) (1)2031 2 0 0 0 (2) (2)2032 3 0 0 0 (3) (3)2033 4 0 0 0 (4) (4)2034 13 8 0 0 (5) (13)2035 11 8 8 0 (4) (4)2036 10 8 8 0 (2) (2)2037 6 5 5 0 (1) (1)2038 8 8 8 0 (1) (1)

Residential EE Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Utility Solar

109


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 50 0 0 0 (50) (50)2024 50 0 0 0 (50) (50)2025 199 0 0 0 (199) (199)2026 249 50 0 0 (199) (249)2027 398 199 149 0 (199) (249)2028 547 348 298 0 (199) (249)2029 696 497 448 0 (199) (249)2030 995 696 647 0 (298) (348)2031 1,144 846 796 0 (298) (348)2032 1,293 995 945 0 (298) (348)2033 1,442 1,144 1,094 0 (298) (348)2034 1,592 1,293 1,243 0 (298) (348)2035 1,691 1,442 1,393 0 (249) (298)2036 1,691 1,592 1,542 0 (99) (149)2037 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 02038 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0

Utility Solar Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – Wind

110

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 300 300 300 0 0 02023 450 450 450 0 0 02024 450 450 450 0 0 02025 450 450 450 0 0 02026 450 450 450 0 0 02027 450 450 450 0 0 02028 450 450 450 0 0 02029 450 450 450 0 0 02030 600 600 600 0 0 02031 750 750 750 0 0 02032 900 900 900 0 0 02033 1,050 1,050 1,050 0 0 02034 1,200 1,200 1,200 0 0 02035 1,350 1,350 1,350 0 0 02036 1,500 1,500 1,500 0 0 02037 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 02038 1,800 1,800 1,800 0 0 0

Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 2A – VVO

111

Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A Case 5A Case 6A Case 8A2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 0 0 02026 0 0 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 0 0 02028 0 0 0 0 0 02029 0 0 0 0 0 02030 0 0 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 0 0 02037 0 0 0 0 0 02038 0 0 0 0 0 0

VVO Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 5A

Updated Slide


Group 3 – Short-Term Market Purchase

112


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 350 200 150 200 0 (150) (200) (150)2024 250 100 50 50 0 (150) (200) (200)2025 150 50 0 0 0 (100) (150) (150)2026 100 0 0 0 0 (100) (100) (100)2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02028 100 250 150 400 0 150 50 3002029 50 150 50 150 0 100 0 1002030 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 02031 0 50 0 0 0 50 0 02032 0 50 0 0 0 50 0 02033 0 50 0 0 0 50 0 02034 0 0 200 0 0 0 200 02035 0 0 200 0 0 0 200 02036 0 0 200 0 0 0 200 02037 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short-Term Market Purchase Firm Capacity (MW)Differnce over Case 9


Group 3 – Combustion Turbine

113


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 248 248 248 0 248 248 2482024 0 248 248 248 0 248 248 2482025 0 248 248 248 0 248 248 2482026 0 248 248 248 0 248 248 2482027 0 248 248 248 0 248 248 2482028 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962029 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962030 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962031 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962032 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962033 0 992 992 496 0 992 992 4962034 0 992 1,736 1,240 0 992 1,736 1,2402035 0 992 1,736 1,240 0 992 1,736 1,2402036 0 992 1,736 1,240 0 992 1,736 1,2402037 0 992 1,736 2,480 0 992 1,736 2,4802038 0 992 1,736 2,480 0 992 1,736 2,480

Combustion Turbine Firm Capacity (MW)Difference over Case 9



114


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02028 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2029 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2030 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2031 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2032 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2033 1,119 0 0 0 0 (1,119) (1,119) (1,119)2034 2,238 1,119 0 0 0 (1,119) (2,238) (2,238)2035 2,238 1,119 0 0 0 (1,119) (2,238) (2,238)2036 2,238 1,119 0 0 0 (1,119) (2,238) (2,238)2037 3,357 2,611 1,492 0 0 (746) (1,865) (3,357)2038 3,357 2,611 1,492 0 0 (746) (1,865) (3,357)

Difference over Case 9Combined-Cycle Firm Capacity (MW)



115


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 17 16 16 16 0 (1) (0) (1)2021 31 31 31 31 0 (1) (0) (1)2022 44 44 44 43 0 (1) 0 (1)2023 56 54 56 54 0 (1) 0 (2)2024 65 63 65 63 0 (2) (1) (2)2025 72 71 72 70 0 (2) (0) (2)2026 78 77 78 76 0 (1) (0) (3)2027 83 83 83 81 0 0 1 (2)2028 86 87 87 85 0 1 1 (1)2029 78 79 77 77 0 1 (1) (1)2030 86 87 86 86 0 1 (1) (1)2031 84 86 85 85 0 1 0 12032 84 86 85 85 0 2 1 12033 83 85 85 85 0 3 2 22034 81 83 84 85 0 2 3 32035 79 80 83 81 0 1 4 22036 76 77 81 77 0 1 5 12037 47 48 49 48 0 0 2 12038 67 67 68 69 0 0 1 2




116


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 12023 9 7 10 3 0 1 0 32024 10 7 10 7 0 3 0 32025 12 0 4 0 0 12 0 42026 4 0 5 0 0 4 0 52027 3 1 6 0 0 2 0 52028 2 10 15 0 0 (8) 0 52029 10 9 9 8 0 0 0 (1)2030 2 3 5 8 0 (1) 0 22031 1 4 6 3 0 (3) 0 12032 1 5 6 4 0 (4) 0 12033 3 13 6 5 0 (10) 0 (8)2034 8 12 14 14 0 (4) 0 22035 8 11 14 12 0 (3) 0 32036 8 10 16 11 0 (2) 0 62037 5 6 8 6 0 (1) 0 22038 8 8 10 8 0 (0) 0 2




117


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 149 0 0 0 0 (149) (149) (149)2023 298 0 149 0 0 (298) (149) (298)2024 497 149 298 298 0 (348) (199) (199)2025 746 298 448 597 0 (448) (298) (149)2026 895 448 597 895 0 (448) (298) 02027 1,144 746 895 1,343 0 (398) (249) 1992028 1,293 1,044 1,194 1,940 0 (249) (99) 6472029 1,442 1,343 1,492 2,537 0 (99) 50 1,0942030 1,592 1,492 1,641 2,885 0 (99) 50 1,2932031 1,691 1,641 1,691 3,183 0 (50) 0 1,4922032 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912033 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912034 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912035 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912036 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912037 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,6912038 1,691 1,691 1,691 3,382 0 0 0 1,691



Group 3 – Wind

118


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 300 300 300 600 0 0 0 3002023 600 600 600 1,200 0 0 0 6002024 750 750 750 1,500 0 0 0 7502025 900 900 900 1,800 0 0 0 9002026 1,050 1,050 1,050 2,100 0 0 0 1,0502027 1,200 1,200 1,200 2,400 0 0 0 1,2002028 1,350 1,350 1,350 2,700 0 0 0 1,3502029 1,500 1,500 1,500 3,000 0 0 0 1,5002030 1,650 1,650 1,650 3,300 0 0 0 1,6502031 1,800 1,800 1,800 3,600 0 0 0 1,8002032 1,950 1,950 1,950 3,900 0 0 0 1,9502033 2,100 2,100 2,100 4,200 0 0 0 2,1002034 2,250 2,250 2,250 4,500 0 0 0 2,2502035 2,400 2,400 2,400 4,800 0 0 0 2,4002036 2,550 2,550 2,550 5,100 0 0 0 2,5502037 2,700 2,700 2,700 5,400 0 0 0 2,7002038 2,850 2,850 2,850 5,700 0 0 0 2,850



Group 3 – VVO

119


2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02022 9 0 0 0 0 (9) (9) (9)2023 16 9 9 0 0 (7) (7) (16)2024 16 16 16 0 0 0 0 (16)2025 16 16 16 0 0 0 0 (16)2026 16 16 16 0 0 0 0 (16)2027 16 16 23 0 0 0 7 (16)2028 16 23 29 0 0 7 13 (16)2029 16 23 29 7 0 7 13 (9)2030 16 23 29 7 0 7 13 (9)2031 16 23 29 7 0 7 13 (9)2032 16 23 29 13 0 7 13 (3)2033 16 23 29 20 0 7 13 42034 16 23 29 29 0 7 13 132035 16 23 29 29 0 7 13 132036 16 23 29 29 0 7 13 132037 7 23 29 29 0 16 22 222038 0 14 20 29 0 14 20 29



Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Short-Term Market Purchase

120

Case 1 Case 13 Case 14 Case 1 Case 13 Case 14

2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 500 300 200 0 (200) (300)2024 100 200 200 0 100 1002025 50 100 150 0 50 1002026 50 0 100 0 (50) 502027 0 0 50 0 0 502028 100 0 150 0 (100) 502029 50 0 100 0 (50) 502030 0 0 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 0 0 02037 50 50 50 0 0 02038 50 0 0 0 (50) (50)


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Combined Cycle

121


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 373 0 0 3732024 0 0 373 0 0 3732025 373 0 373 0 (373) 02026 373 0 373 0 (373) 02027 373 0 373 0 (373) 02028 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02029 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02030 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02031 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02032 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02033 1,492 1,119 1,492 0 (373) 02034 2,238 1,865 2,611 0 (373) 3732035 2,238 1,865 2,611 0 (373) 3732036 2,238 1,865 2,611 0 (373) 3732037 3,357 2,611 3,730 0 (746) 3732038 3,357 2,611 4,103 0 (746) 746


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Commercial EE

122


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 17 15 16 0 (1) (1)2021 31 30 31 0 (2) (1)2022 45 42 43 0 (3) (2)2023 56 53 54 0 (3) (2)2024 65 62 62 0 (4) (3)2025 71 70 69 0 (2) (2)2026 76 77 75 0 0 (2)2027 81 81 80 0 1 (1)2028 84 85 83 0 1 (0)2029 75 76 75 0 1 (0)2030 84 85 84 0 1 02031 83 83 83 0 1 02032 82 83 82 0 1 02033 82 82 82 0 0 02034 81 81 81 0 0 02035 79 80 79 0 1 02036 76 77 76 0 2 02037 47 49 47 0 1 02038 67 70 67 0 3 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Residential EE

123


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 2 0 7 0 (2) 52024 10 0 7 0 (10) (3)2025 2 2 0 0 (1) (2)2026 1 9 0 0 7 (1)2027 1 1 0 0 0 (1)2028 6 1 0 0 (4) (6)2029 0 1 0 0 0 (0)2030 0 1 0 0 1 02031 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 0 0 02034 8 8 8 0 0 02035 8 8 8 0 0 02036 8 8 8 0 0 02037 5 5 5 0 0 02038 8 8 8 0 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Utility Solar

124


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 02024 50 149 50 0 99 02025 199 298 199 0 99 02026 348 448 348 0 99 02027 497 597 547 0 99 502028 647 746 696 0 99 502029 796 895 945 0 99 1492030 1,094 1,194 1,243 0 99 1492031 1,243 1,343 1,393 0 99 1492032 1,393 1,492 1,542 0 99 1492033 1,542 1,641 1,691 0 99 1492034 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 02035 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 02036 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 02037 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 02038 1,691 1,691 1,691 0 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – Wind

125


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 300 300 300 0 0 02023 600 600 600 0 0 02024 750 750 750 0 0 02025 900 900 900 0 0 02026 1,050 1,050 1050 0 0 02027 1,200 1,200 1200 0 0 02028 1,350 1,350 1350 0 0 02029 1,500 1,500 1500 0 0 02030 1,650 1,650 1650 0 0 02031 1,800 1,800 1800 0 0 02032 1,950 1,950 1950 0 0 02033 2,100 2,100 2100 0 0 02034 2,250 2,250 2250 0 0 02035 2,400 2,400 2400 0 0 02036 2,550 2,550 2550 0 0 02037 2,700 2,700 2700 0 0 02038 2,850 2,850 2850 0 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Base Commodity Pricing) – VVO

126


2019 0 0 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 0 0 02026 0 0 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 0 0 02028 0 0 0 0 0 02029 0 0 0 0 0 02030 0 0 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 0 0 02032 0 7 0 0 7 02033 0 14 0 0 14 02034 0 23 0 0 23 02035 0 23 0 0 23 02036 0 23 0 0 23 02037 0 23 0 0 23 02038 0 23 0 0 23 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Short-Term Market Purchase

127

Case 3 Case 15 Case 3 Case 15

2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 550 300 0 (250)2024 150 300 0 1502025 100 200 0 1002026 50 100 0 502027 0 0 0 02028 100 100 0 02029 50 0 0 (50)2030 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 02037 0 0 0 02038 0 0 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Combined Cycle

128


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 373 0 0 (373)2025 373 0 0 (373)2026 373 0 0 (373)2027 373 0 0 (373)2028 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2029 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2030 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2031 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2032 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2033 1,492 1,119 0 (373)2034 2,238 1,865 0 (373)2035 2,238 1,865 0 (373)2036 2,238 1,865 0 (373)2037 3,357 2,984 0 (373)2038 3,357 2,984 0 (373)


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Commercial EE

129


2019 0 0 0 02020 15 15 0 02021 30 30 0 02022 42 42 0 12023 51 51 0 02024 59 60 0 02025 67 67 0 02026 74 74 0 02027 79 81 0 12028 83 85 0 12029 75 76 0 12030 83 84 0 12031 82 82 0 02032 82 82 0 02033 81 81 0 02034 81 81 0 02035 79 78 0 (1)2036 77 75 0 (2)2037 49 46 0 (3)2038 70 66 0 (4)


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Residential EE

130


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 02026 2 0 0 (2)2027 0 9 0 92028 0 1 0 12029 0 1 0 12030 0 1 0 12031 0 1 0 12032 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 02035 8 8 0 02036 8 8 0 02037 6 5 0 (1)2038 8 8 0 (0)


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Utility Solar

131


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 02025 99 149 0 502026 199 298 0 992027 348 448 0 992028 497 597 0 992029 647 796 0 1492030 945 945 0 02031 1,094 1,094 0 02032 1,243 1,243 0 02033 1,393 1,393 0 02034 1,542 1,542 0 02035 1,691 1,691 0 02036 1,691 1,691 0 02037 1,691 1,691 0 02038 1,691 1,691 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – Wind

132


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 300 300 0 02023 450 450 0 02024 450 450 0 02025 450 450 0 02026 600 600 0 02027 750 750 0 02028 900 900 0 02029 1,050 1,050 0 02030 1,200 1,200 0 02031 1,350 1,350 0 02032 1,500 1,500 0 02033 1,650 1,650 0 02034 1,800 1,800 0 02035 1,950 1,950 0 02036 2,100 2,100 0 02037 2,250 2,250 0 02038 2,400 2,400 0 0


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (Low Commodity Pricing) – VVO

133


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 02025 0 0 0 02026 0 0 0 02027 0 0 0 02028 0 0 0 02029 0 0 0 02030 0 0 0 02031 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 02033 9 0 0 (9)2034 9 0 0 (9)2035 9 0 0 (9)2036 9 0 0 (9)2037 9 0 0 (9)2038 9 0 0 (9)


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Short-Term Market Purchase

134


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 500 250 0 (250)2024 50 200 0 1502025 0 100 0 1002026 0 50 0 502027 0 0 0 02028 250 100 0 (150)2029 150 50 0 (100)2030 50 0 0 (50)2031 0 0 0 02032 0 0 0 02033 0 0 0 02034 0 0 0 02035 0 0 0 02036 0 0 0 02037 0 50 0 502038 0 50 0 50


Updated Slide


Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Combined Cycle

135


2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 373 0 3732024 373 373 0 02025 373 373 0 02026 373 373 0 02027 373 373 0 02028 1,119 1,492 0 3732029 1,119 1,492 0 3732030 1,119 1,492 0 3732031 1,119 1,492 0 3732032 1,119 1,492 0 3732033 1,119 1,492 0 3732034 2,238 2,611 0 3732035 2,238 2,611 0 3732036 2,238 2,611 0 3732037 3,357 3,730 0 3732038 3,357 3,730 0 373


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Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Commercial EE

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2019 0 0 0 02020 16 16 0 02021 30 30 0 02022 43 43 0 02023 53 53 0 02024 62 62 0 (0)2025 70 70 0 (0)2026 76 77 0 02027 81 81 0 (0)2028 85 85 0 (0)2029 77 77 0 (0)2030 86 85 0 (1)2031 85 84 0 (2)2032 86 83 0 (2)2033 86 82 0 (3)2034 84 81 0 (3)2035 81 80 0 (2)2036 78 77 0 (1)2037 48 48 0 (0)2038 68 68 0 (0)


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Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Residential EE

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2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 5 0 0 (5)2024 3 0 0 (3)2025 0 0 0 02026 0 1 0 12027 0 0 0 02028 5 1 0 (4)2029 8 8 0 02030 2 0 0 (2)2031 4 0 0 (4)2032 6 0 0 (6)2033 14 0 0 (14)2034 13 8 0 (5)2035 12 8 0 (4)2036 10 8 0 (3)2037 6 5 0 (1)2038 8 8 0 (1)


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Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Utility Solar

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2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 149 149 0 02025 298 298 0 02026 448 448 0 02027 647 647 0 02028 945 796 0 (149)2029 1,243 1,044 0 (199)2030 1,542 1,343 0 (199)2031 1,691 1,492 0 (199)2032 1,691 1,641 0 (50)2033 1,691 1,691 0 02034 1,691 1,691 0 02035 1,691 1,691 0 02036 1,691 1,691 0 02037 1,691 1,691 0 02038 1,691 1,691 0 0


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Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – Wind

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2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 300 300 0 02023 600 600 0 02024 750 750 0 02025 900 900 0 02026 1,050 1,050 0 02027 1,200 1,200 0 02028 1,350 1,350 0 02029 1,500 1,500 0 02030 1,650 1,650 0 02031 1,800 1,800 0 02032 1,950 1,950 0 02033 2,100 2,100 0 02034 2,250 2,250 0 02035 2,400 2,400 0 02036 2,550 2,550 0 02037 2,700 2,700 0 02038 2,850 2,850 0 0


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Groups 1 & 4 (High Commodity Pricing) – VVO

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2019 0 0 0 02020 0 0 0 02021 0 0 0 02022 0 0 0 02023 0 0 0 02024 0 0 0 02025 0 9 0 92026 0 9 0 92027 0 9 0 92028 9 9 0 02029 9 9 0 02030 9 9 0 02031 9 9 0 02032 16 9 0 (7)2033 16 9 0 (7)2034 16 9 0 (7)2035 16 9 0 (7)2036 16 9 0 (7)2037 16 9 0 (7)2038 16 9 0 (7)


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2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #3...DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana...

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Transcript of 2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #3...DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana...