2019 Full Year Results - nsfgroupplc.com/media/Files/N/Non... · Acquisition date April 2016 April...
Transcript of 2019 Full Year Results - nsfgroupplc.com/media/Files/N/Non... · Acquisition date April 2016 April...
2019 Full Year Results
25 June 2020
John van KuffelerFounder and Group Chief Executive
2
3
Key points
▪ 2019 results
▪ Normalised operating profit of £42.2m +20%
▪ Normalised PBT £14.7m +5%
▪ Statutory loss of £76.0m
▪ Goodwill write-down (non-cash) of £65.9m
▪ Fair value adjustments and amortisation (non-cash) of £10.1m
▪ Transaction costs and restructuring of £14.7m
▪ COVID-19
▪ Lending significantly reduced, reducing loan book by c9% since year end, but restarted in May 2020
▪ Collections holding up well at 86% of pre-lockdown and signs that it is starting to stabilise
▪ Balance sheet, liquidity and going concern
▪ Strong cashflow in April and May - cash of £60.3m, gross borrowings of £345.0m
▪ Group remains viable and a going concern
▪ Long-term debt funding in place but unable to access new facility due to covenant constraints
caused by COVID-19
▪ Strategic opportunity
▪ Mainstream lenders are tightening credit and demand for non-standard credit expected to increase
▪ Significant opportunity for growth in 2021 but need the right capital structure to achieve it
4
• Loan book growth driven by branch expansion and a strong guarantor loans market
• Home credit profit growth due to lower impairment and careful cost management
• COVID-19 impact since March 2020 creating material uncertainties for the Group
• Group remains cash flow positive and has £60.3m in cash as at 31 May 2020
• All medium-term guidance is currently withdrawn
• No final dividend is being paid; plans in place to restore distributable reserves
1 on a like-for-like basis, assuming George Banco had been owned since 1 January 20162 excluding fair value adjustments3 normalised operating profit4 normalised EPS
▪ CAGR in all key performance metrics since 2016:
2019 financial highlights1
Net loan book1 Revenue2 Operating profit3 Earnings per share4
£81m
£120m
£167m
£184m
£0m
£25m
£50m
£75m
£100m
£125m
£150m
£175m
£200m
2016 2017 2018 2019
+31%£16m
£24m
£35m
£42m
£0m
£10m
£20m
£30m
£40m
£50m
2016 2017 2018 2019
+39%
3.09p
3.44p3.50p
3.67p
2.0p
2.5p
3.0p
3.5p
4.0p
2016 2017 2018 2019
+6%
£191m
£238m
£306m
£360m
£0m
£50m
£100m
£150m
£200m
£250m
£300m
£350m
£400m
2016 2017 2018 2019
+23%
Statutory pre-tax loss of £76.0m primarily due to exceptionals
5
▪ Goodwill impairment – major decline in market multiples since 1 January 2019
Item £m
Goodwill impairment - ELL (44.8)
Goodwill impairment - GLD (8.6)
Goodwill impairment - LAH (12.5)
Offer-related fees (12.8)
Restructuring (1.9)
Total (80.6)
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
Forward PER (Next year)1
NSF Provident Financial
Morses Amigo
1 Source: Bloomberg
Branch expansion
• 8 branches opened as planned and on budget
• 125 new customer-facing staff added
Lead volumes and quality
• 2.5m leads in 2019 +52%
• 35% increase in total applications to branch that reached 540,479
Productivity
• Lower conversion rate for new borrowers of 7.6% (2018: 9.0%) but on a much increased number of ATBs
• Over 52,130 loans written, up 16%
Delinquency management
• Impairment was 22.2% of revenue (2018: 22.7%)
2019 operational highlights - branch-based lending
6
New branches in 2019
7
2019 operational highlights - guarantor loans
Channel mix
• Accepted leads up 6% to over 2.5m
• 520,144 passed through our scorecard (2018: 448,128) – improved quality of applications
• Top-ups were 17% of the total loans booked
Conversion steady
• Conversion broadly flat versus last year but on higher volume
• 12% increase in number of loans written to 19,458 (2018: 17,393)
• 10% increase in value of loans written to £71.7m (2018: £65.2m)
Consolidation into a single location
• Higher impairment at 26.8% (2018: 20.5%) prompted consolidation in Trowbridge
• Operational improvements and reduced costs
Value of new cash by channel
58%
17%
5%
13%
3% 1%
4%
Broker
Top Ups
Organic
PCW
ELL Online Decline
ELL Branch Decline
Lead Generator
200
220
240
260
280
300
Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19
APE (Active Accounts Per Ops Employee)
8
2019 operational highlights - home credit
Evolution of our digital platform
• 99% of loans in 2019 were via the app (2018 93%)
• Launch of our new customer portal
• Addition of automated income verification
• Card readers rolled-out to agents
• Bespoke scorecard for best agents
Focus on quality
• Further reduction in impairment as a % of revenue
Careful cost management
• Cost : income ratio of 58% (2018: 57%)
Significant shortening of the loan book
• 63-week loan has replaced 78 and 76-week loan
• Significant increase in issue of core 46-week product0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Net loan book by product
24 33 45/46 63 76/78
Jono GillespieGroup Chief Financial Officer
9
2019 reported results
Year ended 31 December 2019)
£000)
2018
restated
£000
% Change
Versus
2018
Revenue 180,784 158,824 +16%
Other revenue 954 1,626 -41%
Modification loss (1,181) (78) +1,414%
Derecognition (loss)/gain (413) (129) +220%
Impairments (45,066) (43,738) +3%
Revenue less impairments 135,078 116,505 +16%
Admin expenses (103,012) (97,763) +5%
Operating profit 32,066 18,742 +71%
Exceptional items (80,584) - n/a
(Loss) profit before interest and tax (48,518) 18,742( n/a
Finance cost (27,458)) (21,107) +30%
Loss before tax (75,976) (2,365) +3,113%
Taxation (332)) 58() +7%
Loss after tax (76,308) (2,307) +3,208%
10
1 2018 has been restated for a prior year adjustment
2019 normalised1 divisional breakdown
Year ended 31 December 2019 Branch-
based
lending
£000
Guarantor
loans
£000
Home
credit
£000
Central
costs
£000
Total
£000
% Change
Versus
20182
Revenue 93,002 29,820 60,835 - 183,657 +10%
Other revenue 954 - - - 954 -41%
Modification loss (951) (230) - - (1,181) +1,414%
Derecognition (loss)/gain (482) 69( - - (413) +220%
Impairments (20,635) (7,996) (16,435) - (45,066) +3%
Revenue less impairments 71,888 22,663 44,400 - 137,951 +11%
Admin expenses (42,235) (12,895) (35,298) (5,358) (95,786) +8%
Normalised operating profit 29,653 8,768 9,102 (5,358) 42,165 +20%
Finance cost (17,355) (7,338) (2, 116) (649) (27,458) +30%
Profit (loss) before tax 12,298 1,430 6,986 (6,007) 14,707 +5%
Taxation (2,711) (113) (1,474) 1,141) (3,261) +7%
Profit after tax 9,483 1,317 5,512 (4,866) 11,446 +5%
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1 Adjusted to exclude fair value adjustments, amortisation of acquired Intangibles and exceptional items.2 2018 has been restated for a prior year adjustment
Key movements impacting operating profit
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1 Adjusted to exclude fair value adjustments, amortisation of acquired Intangibles and exceptional items. 2018 has been restated.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
£m Normalised operating profit bridge 2018-2019
Prior year adjustment to loan loss provisions
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▪ On 1 January 2018 the Group adopted IFRS 9 which required the Group to increase
its loan loss provisions to take into account expected credit losses
▪ Total transition impact to IFRS 9 on 1 January 2018 was an increase in loan loss
provisions of £15.0m
▪ A detailed provisions ‘back-test’ analysis initiated by the Board identified a shortfall
and the need for an additional provision of £4.0m (or 1% of receivables)
▪ £3.2m relates to branch-based lending
▪ £0.8m relates to guarantor loans
▪ No impact on any of the covenants in the Group’s term loan facility which uses IAS39
Branch-based lending
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Year ended 31 December2019
normalised
£000
2018
normalised
restated
£000 % Change
Revenue 93,002 79,579 +17%
Other income 954 1,397 -32%
Modification loss (951) (78) +1,119%
Derecognition loss (482) (97) +397%
Impairments (20,635) (18,040) +14%
Revenue less impairments 71,888 62,761 +15%
Admin expenses (42,235) (36,488) +16%
Normalised operating profit 29,653 26,273 +13%
Finance cost (17,355) (12,778) +36%
Profit before tax 12,298 13,495 -9%
Taxation (2,815) (2,492) +13%
Profit after tax 9,483 11,003 -14%
Key Performance Indicators:
Loan book growth1 17.6% 24.7%
Revenue yield2 46.4% 47.8%
Risk adjusted margin3 36.1% 37.0%
Impairments/revenue 22.2% 22.7%
Impairment/average net loan book 10.3% 10.8%
Cost:income ratio 45.4% 45.9%
Operating profit margin 31.4% 33.0%
Return on asset4 14.8% 15.8% 1 Before fair value adjustments2 Normalised revenue as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments 3 Normalised revenue less impairments as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments4 Normalised operating profit as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments
Branch-based lending KPIs – impairment/ ANR1
151 2019, 2018 and 2017 are under IFRS 9 while prior years are under IAS 39. 2018 has been restated for a prior year adjustment.
16.4% 16.2%
18.3%
9.7% 9.9%
7.9%8.2%
7.8%7.3%
8.9%
9.5%
10.8%10.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Branch-based lending KPIs - period end loan book
161 2016 is under IAS 39 while all other periods have been prepared under IFRS 9. 2018 and 2017 have been restated for a prior year adjustment.
122.4
146.4
182.7
214.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
£m
Guarantor loans
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Year ended 31 December2019
normalised
£000
2018
normalised
restated
£000 % Change
Revenue 29,820 21,748 +37%
Other income - 229 n/a
Modification loss (161) (32) +403%
Impairments (7,996) (4,451) +80%
Revenue less impairments 21,663 17,494 +24%
Admin expenses (12,895) (9,983) +29%
Operating profit 8,768 7,511 +17%
Finance cost (7,338) (5,833) +26%
Profit before tax 1,430) 1,678) -15%
Taxation (113) (618) -82%
Profit after tax 1,317 1,060 +24%
Key Performance Indicators:
Loan book growth1 27.7% 61.0%
Revenue yield2 31.7% 32.5%
Risk adjusted margin3 23.2% 25.8%
Impairments/revenue 26.8% 20.5%
Impairments/average net loan book 8.5% 6.6%
Cost:income ratio 43.2% 45.9%
Operating profit margin 30.8% 34.5%
Return on asset4 9.3% 11.2%1 Before fair value adjustments. 2 Normalised revenue as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments3 Normalised revenue less impairments as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments 4 Operating profit as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments (twelve month average).
Guarantor loans KPIs – period end loan book1
1 2016 is under IAS 39 while all other periods have been prepared under IFRS 9. 2017 and 2018 have been restated. Assumes George Banco was owned for the full period.
35.6
51.3
82.7
105.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
£m
18
Home credit
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Year ended 31 December 2019
normalised
£000
2018
normalised
£000 % Change
Revenue 60,835 65,175 -7%
Impairments (16,435) (21,247) -23%
Revenue less impairments 44,400 43,928 +1%
Admin expenses (35,298) (37,214) -5%
Operating profit 9,102 6,714 +36%
Finance cost (2,116) (2,461) -14%
Profit before tax 6,986 4,253 +64%
Taxation (1,474) (774) +90%
Profit after tax 5,512 3,479 +58%
Key Performance Indicators:
Loan book growth1 (2.7)% 2.1%
Revenue yield2 167.5% 171.5%
Risk adjusted margin3 122.2% 115.6%
Impairments/revenue 27.0% 32.6%
Impairments/average net loan book 45.2% 55.9%
Cost:income ratio 58.0% 57.1%
Operating profit margin4 15.0% 10.3%
Return on asset5 25.1% 17.7%
1 Before fair value adjustments2 Normalised Revenue as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments3 Revenue less impairments as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments4 Normalised operating profit as a percentage of normalised revenue5 Normalised operating profit as a percentage of average loan book excluding fair value adjustments
Home credit KPIs - period end loan book
20
28.0
33.4
40.2 41.0 39.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
£m
Balance sheet, funding and liquidity
▪ £285m term loan in place until 2023
▪ £45m RCF until 2022
▪ £200m securitisation facility until 2023 (followed
by 3-year amortisation period); £65m of which
would be available but only with suitable waivers
▪ COVID-19 is constraining our ability to draw
down on the new facility
▪ At 31 May 2020 Group had cash of £60m and
gross borrowings of £345m
▪ Group remains viable as a going concern
▪ Additional equity would reduce gearing and may
allow access to lower cost debt funding
31 Dec
2019
£m
31 Dec
2018
restated
£m
Loan book 360 306
Fair value 2 4
Adjusted loan book 362 311
Cash and other assets 25 25
Right of use assets 11( -(
Payables and provisions (28) (17)
Lease liability (11) -(
Debt (318) (266)
Tangible net assets 40 52
Goodwill and intangibles 83 155
Net assets 124 207
Net debt 309 259
Loan: value1 84% 83%
LTV covenant 90% 90%
1 Definitions from facilities agreement 21
John van KuffelerFounder and Group Chief Executive
22
How is NSF positioned?
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▪ Strong market positions in all three segments
▪ High risk-adjusted margins
▪ Net loan book reduced by c.9% since year end but good
collections and minimal lending have resulted in cash
balances of £60m at 31 May 2020
▪ £65m of additional long-term funding available,
provided we meet covenant requirements
▪ Lending restarted in all three divisions in mid-May
24
COVID-19 response – branch-based lending
▪ Branches were closed on 23 March and staff sent home
▪ By 26 March 295 laptops (now 327) had been configured and distributed to selected staff for home
working
– Full telephony and call recording– Full access to Pan-credit and CRA data– Full management oversight (call review and operational KPIs)– Extensive use of online video platforms
▪ 155 (40%) branch staff were furloughed initially (now 120) and 15 head office (13%). All furloughed
staff are being topped-up to 100% of salary. Consultation with 48 members of staff commenced.
▪ Reopened the branches on 11 May with three staff per branch, on average
Collections
▪ Approximately 12% of customers are COVID-flagged
▪ Basic collections in April and May were at 94% of the monthly average in January and February
Lending
▪ Minimal in April, restarted on 11 May with all branches now open
▪ revised scorecard and lending procedures
▪ as planned it is a slow-build but now moving towards stabilisation of the loan book
25
COVID-19 response – branch-based lending
£183m £186m
£189m £191m
£194m £197m
£215m £216m
£218m £216m
£208m
£199m
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
£160m
£170m
£180m
£190m
£200m
£210m
£220m
£230m
£240m
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2019 opening loan book 2020 opening loan book 2020 basic collections index (RH scale)
26
COVID-19 response – guarantor loans
▪ Trowbridge call centre was closed at the end of March and all 115 staff sent home
▪ 85 laptops were configured and distributed to all customer-facing staff
– Full telephony and call recording– Full access to office-based work environment– Full management oversight (call review and operational KPIs)
▪ Doubled collections resource by retraining 36 lending and underwriting staff to support collections
and customer service effort
▪ 7 staff have been furloughed
Collections
▪ Approximately 23% of customers are COVID-flagged
▪ Basic collections in April and May were at 83% of the monthly average in January and February
Lending
▪ Minimal in April but volume restarted on 11 May with reduced staffing levels
▪ Encouraging lead volumes from brokers and PCWs although applicants finding it more difficult
to find a suitable guarantor
▪ revised scorecard and lending procedures
▪ as planned it is a slow-build and volumes increasing albeit gradually
27
COVID-19 response – guarantor loans
£83m £85m
£87m £89m
£91m £94m
£106m £107m £108m £108m
£105m £102m
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
£50m
£60m
£70m
£80m
£90m
£100m
£110m
£120m
£130m
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2019 opening loan book 2020 opening loan book 2020 basic collections index (RH scale)
28
COVID-19 response – home credit
▪ Self-employed agents were instructed to stop attending customers’ homes on 24 March
▪ 2 staff have been furloughed
Collections
– Significant increase in collections via remote channels– Pre-COVID: 28% of collections were made remotely; now close to100%– Remote card payments were piloted on 27 March and rolled out on 30 March– Approximately 12% of customers are COVID-flagged (although around half of these can only
use cash)
Lending
▪ Revised lending criteria (initial focus on existing customers/key workers, max of £500 over 33-weeks)
▪ 1st remote loan issued on 20 April now fully rolled out
▪ Encouraging increase in lending volume during May
29
COVID-19 response – home credit
£41m £39m
£37m £37m £36m £36m
£40m £38m
£37m £34m
£31m
£27m
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
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100
110
120
£m
£10m
£20m
£30m
£40m
£50m
£60m
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2019 opening loan book 2020 opening loan book 2020 basic collections index (RH scale)
30
COVID-19 response – collections summary
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Basic collections as a % of opening net loan book
Branch based lending 2019 Branch-based lending 2020
Guarantor loans 2019 Guarantor loans 2020
31
COVID-19 response – collections summary
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Basic collections as a % of opening net loan book
Home credit 2019 (RH scale) Home credit 2020 (RH scale)
32
Viability and going concern
▪ The 2019 annual results contain a statement of material uncertainty principally due to COVID-19
▪ Board has conducted extensive scenario modelling
▪ We are focused on a base case that shows we remain covenant compliant on our term loan facility
with modest growth levels in 2021 and 2022
▪ We are in discussions with our lenders to secure suitable covenant waivers should they be needed
in the event of a variance from the base case scenario
▪ Our plans will remain flexible so we can adapt to changes in prevailing circumstances
▪ We believe that there could be a significant opportunity for growth in 2021 but need the right
capital structure in order to achieve it
1991-95 2008-12
The market opportunity
▪ Managed carefully, recessions can play to the strengths of our business:
▪ Leading positions in three key segments
▪ High risk-adjusted margins
▪ Diversified customer base
▪ Proven business models
▪ Long-term funding in place (but may need additional equity to access it)
▪ Experience at Provident from 1991-1995, and 2008-2012 is instructive:
33*Before central costs
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pre
-tax
pro
fit
(£m
)
Home credit* Vanquis* Average unemployment (RH scale)
Questions
Appendix
36
Strong market positions in three segments
Sub-sector Branch-based lending Guarantor loans Home credit
Acquisition date April 2016 April 2016 / August 2017 August 2015
Market position #1 #2 #3
Employees1 476 employees 141 employees313 employees
896 self-employed agencies
Net loan book1 £214.8m £105.5m £39.9m
Loan book growth1 18% 28% (3)%
Impairment/norm. revenue1 22.2% 26.8% 27.0%
Year to 31 Dec 2019
Source: company information
All three businesses have received significant investment