2019 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2019 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin...
Transcript of 2019 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2019 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin...
2019 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers
Dublin
Steven F. Udvar-HázyExecutive Chairman
January 21, 2019
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Forward Looking Statements
Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements,” including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans,predictions, forecasts, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as“anticipate,” “believes,” “can,” “could,” “may,” “predicts,” “potential,” “should,” “will,” “estimate,” “plans,” “projects,” “continuing,” “ongoing,” “expects,” “intends” and similar words orphrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involve estimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differmaterially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result ofseveral factors, including, but not limited to, the following:
• our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms or to predict the timing of such sales;
• our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund theoperations and growth of our business;
• our inability to effectively oversee our managed fleet;
• our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures;
• impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees;
• deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally;
• increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof;
• changes in the regulatory environment including tariffs and other restrictions on trade;
• unanticipated impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the “Tax Reform Act”), including as a result of changes in assumptions we make in our interpretation of theTax Reform Act, guidance related to application of the Tax Reform Act that may be issued in the future, and actions that we may take as a result of our expected impactof the Tax Reform Act; and
• potential natural disasters and terrorist attacks and the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto.
We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), specifically the Company’s Annual Report onForm 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2018, which contain and identify importantfactors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with theSEC. All forward-looking statements are necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and,therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertakeno obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipatedevents. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could be adversely affected.
The Company has an effective registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC. Before you invest in any offering of the Company’s securities, you should read theprospectus in that registration statement and other documents the Company has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Company and any such offering. You mayobtain copies of the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website atwww.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Company will arrange to send such information if you request it by contacting Air Lease Corporation, General Counsel and Secretary, 2000 Avenue ofthe Stars, Suite 1000N, Los Angeles, California 90067, (310) 553-0555.
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Industry fundamentals remain healthy despite headlines
Interest rates
Airline credit
Aircraft delays
Geopolitical issues
Oil
Topics in 2019
Passenger traffic
Global GDP
Global airline net profits
Interest rates
Oil
RPK growth +6.6% YTD
+3.0% year-over-year
$32.3 billion expected in 2018
10yr UST: 2.75%
$61.26
Key measures of industry health
Global airline net profits per IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet December 2018. Global GDP per Bloomberg as of 1/9/19. GDP represents year over year growth as of 9/30/18. Passenger Traffic PRK growth per IATA, YTD through November 2018. Brent Crude $/BBL per Bloomberg as of 1/17/19. 10 Year UST rate per Bloomberg as of 1/17/19.
Airline industry trends
Source: IATA(1) 6.6% Actual is year-to-date through November 2018. Forecast is for full year 2018.
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-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
6.9%7.5%
8.0%
6.6%6.7% 6.9%
5.1%
6.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018
RPK (Actual) RPK (forecast)
83.8%84.7%
80.4%
80.0%
Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18(1)
Airline profitability in recent years has increased above historical levels
Passenger growth continues to exceed forecasts Load factors remain strong
Net
pro
fit ($
billi
on)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Rose in 2Q/3Q ‘18 but has since retreated
Key market drivers
Oil Interest Rates
USD Strength Passenger Travel
Source: Oil (ICE Brent/$BBL) per Bloomberg as of 1/10/19; Interest Rates (10 year UST) per Bloomberg as of 1/10/19; USD strength (DXY Index) per Bloomberg as of 1/10/19; Passenger Travel per World Bank World Development Indicators as of 1/10/19
5
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '180
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
World population (bn)
Passengers carried (bn)
Rose in 2018 but now may stabilize
Dollar strength pressured airline costs
Passenger travel proving resilient
Source: IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis, November 2018. Note: RPK is revenue passenger kilometres.
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Aircraft demand remains strong due to passenger traffic growth
+5.1%
+6.1%
+6.5%
+2.5%
+8.7%
+4.5%
North America
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
Europe
Asia Pacific
Total Market RPK Growth +6.6%
Source: IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet December 20187
Passenger growth is expected to continue
2019 ForecastPassenger Traffic Growth (RPK), % Year-on-Year
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Asia-Pacific Latin America Europe Middle East Africa North America
Global passenger traffic forecasted to be +6.0% in 2019
+7.5%
+6.0%+5.5% +5.5%
+5.0%+4.5%
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Air travel has become more affordable due to low cost carriers…
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast, 2018-2037
Seats offered by airline business model
(Billi
on, A
ll di
stan
ces
cons
ider
ed)
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…And increased city pairs (which have also made it more accessible)
Ease of Travel: Unique city pairs increasing
The number of unique city-pair connections has exceeded 21,000 in 2018 –double the amount of twenty years ago
Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, 2018 End-year report.
10Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast, 2018-2037
Middle class represents a growing portion of the global population
Expected growth in the middle class Private consumption trends
By 2037, >50% of the world’s population is forecast to be middle class
2.6
1.5
0.40.1
US EU China India
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Propensity to travel
Source: World Bank as of January 2019, data is for 2017 population and passengers carried. Note: Propensity to travel calculated as domestic and international passengers of air carriers registered in the country divided by population.
China, 18%
India, 18%
EU, 7%US,
4%
Other, 53%
Propensity to TravelShare of World Population
Developing countries provide an opportunity for a convergence between air travel and population
Quantifying the size of expected passenger growth
1) IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet as of December 2018. 2) Delta aircraft count as of 9/30/18 per 10-Q; easyJet fleet size of 315 aircraft as of 9/30/18 per 2018 annual report; Ryanair fleet size of 450 aircraft as of 9/30/18 per company website; China Southern fleet size of 740 as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report; Cathay Pacific fleet of 148 as of 6/30/18 per 2018 interim report; Vietnam airlines fleet of 94 aircraft as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report. 3) Delta annual passengers per company website on 12/20/18 (>180mm); easyJet annual passengers as of 2018 annual report (88.5mm), Ryanair annual passengers per FY 2018 annual report for FY 2018 (130mm); China Southern annual passengers as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report (126mm); Cathay Pacific annual passengers as of 2017 Annual Report (34.8mm); Vietnam Airlines annual passengers per 2017 annual report (22mm) 12
# of Aircraft2 872 765 982
Annual Passenger Volume (mm)3 >180mm ~200mm ~180mm
- Per IATA, the number of scheduled passengers grew between 5% - 7% annually between 2013 and 2017, adding 180 – 250mm passengers per year1
- A continued 5%+ annual increase in passengers would be similar to adding passenger traffic of the below airline(s):
Airline / Airline Combination
RJ Single Aisle Widebody Freighters
Market expected to need 42,730 new airplanes by 2037 – valued at ~$6.3 trillion
Regionaljets5%
Single-aisle73%
Wide-body19%
Regional jets $110B
Single-aisle $3,480B
Widebody $2,480B
Freighter $280B
World Total $6,300B
Airplane Type Value
$6.3T
Airplane deliveries: 42,7302018 - 2037
Market value: $6,300B2018 - 2037
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2,320
31,360
8,070 980
Source: Boeing, Commercial Market Outlook, 2018 13
Freighter2%
2017 Fleet 2037 Fleet
Current/Retained
Replacement
Growth
Current Fleet
24,40024,140
Growth
18,590
5,810
24,140
24,400
48,540
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Often overlooked: replacement needs are an important driver of aircraft demand
44% of deliveries over the next 20 years will be for replacement
Key Replacement Markets
North America64% of deliveries for replacement
~5,600 aircraft
China31% of deliveries for replacement
~2,400 aircraft
Europe53% of deliveries for replacement
~4,500 aircraft
Source: Boeing, Commercial Market Outlook, 2018
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025TOTAL
Airbus Jets Turning 20 Boeing Jets Turning 20
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More than 3,000 Boeing & Airbus jets will reach 20 years of age between 2020-2025
Source: FlightGlobal as of 1/10/19. Includes Boeing & Airbus in service passenger aircraft.
+617
1,748
+671
+708
+549+468
5,273
Boeing/Airbus passenger jets >20 years old
Narrowbody, 76%
Widebody, 24%
Breakdown by manufacturer
Breakdown by aircraft size
Airbus, 41%
Boeing, 59%
+512
Boeing/Airbus passenger jets >20 years old in 2025
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ALC’s order book includes the most modern aircraft
737-7/8/9 MAX
787-9/10(787-10 Launch Customer)
A330-900NEO(Launch Customer)
A320/321/321LR/NEO(A321LR NEO Launch Customer)
A350-900/1000(A350-1000 Launch Customer)
23on order2
39on order
ALC Order book: 422*Widely distributed, modern single & twin-aisle commercial aircraft
Information as of December 31, 2018. *Includes 372 aircraft on order plus options to purchase 50 aircraft; 1Includes 154 aircraft on order plus options to acquire 45 Boeing 737-8 MAX aircraft; 2Includes 18 aircraft on order plus options to acquire up to five Airbus A350-1000 aircraft.
137on order
199on order1
24on order
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Air Lease remains bullish on wide body demand
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
747 767 777 A300 A310 A330 A340
Wide body aircraft 25 years or older1
1 Source: FlightGlobal. Includes In service, widebody jets (Boeing 747, 767, 777, Airbus A300, A310, A330 and A340). As of January 2019.
Wid
e bo
dy a
ircra
ft
ALC wide body deliveries / placements
Financing availability 2018 2019E
Lessors – Sale Leaseback
Lessors – Order book
Capital markets
Commercial banks
Export credit agencies
Alternative asset managers
Tax equity
Insurance
Airframe & engine manufacturers
New sources of funding
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How will new aircraft deliveries be financed?
Source: Based on ALC management views
Satisfactory Cautionary Concern
Capital requirements for aircraft deliveries put into context
Source: Boeing Capital Corporation Current Aircraft Finance Market Outlook 201919
>$900bn of capital expected to be needed to fund new aircraft deliveries between 2018 - 2023
Capital expected to be needed to fund aircraft deliveries
3%
37%
60%
ALC Lessors Other$3 $7 $6 $6 $5
$47 $51 $56 $60 $64
$76$86
$92$99 $104
$126$143
$154$165
$174
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
ALC Lessors Other
ALC order book
Air Lease represents 14% of lessor orders for Boeing and Airbus aircraft
20
17%
15%
14%
54%
14%
12%
14%
60%
Total Aircraft on Order by Lessors: 2,828Total Lessors: 31
Total Aircraft on Order by Lessors: 1,806Total Lessors: 29
20131 20182
Source: FlightGlobal. Includes all Boeing and Airbus commercial aircraft. 1As of September 30, 2013. 2As of October 3, 2018
61%
Fleet advisory
Operating leases
Airline fleet modernization projects
Financing
Strategic advisory / restructuring
OEM joint campaigns
Air Lease focuses on total airline fleet solutions
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$17.6 billion Total Assets
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Air Lease is a reliable, long-term partner
758Aircraft owned, managed & on order
90%Orderbook placed through 2020
$24.1 billionTotal committed minimum future fleet rentals
15.6%Pre-tax return on equity1
Large unencumbered asset base & significant liquidity
Scale
Visibility
Stability
Returns
Data as of September 30, 2018 except Aircraft owned, managed and on order as of 12/31/18 and Orderbook placed through 2020 as of 1/17/19; 758 aircraft owned, managed and on order includes 275 owned aircraft, 61 managed aircraft, 372 aircraft on order and 50 aircraft purchase options; $24.1 billion total committed future rentals includes $11.4 billion in contracted minimum rental payments on the aircraft in our existing fleet and $12.7 billion in minimum future rental payments related to aircraft which will deliver between 2018 and 2022; (1) TTM as of September 30, 2018.
Questions?