2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0%...

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Office of the Chief Economist Office of the Chief Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture Paris, October 2019 2019 Agricultural Outlook 1

Transcript of 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0%...

Page 1: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist

Office of the Chief EconomistU.S. Department of AgricultureParis, October 2019

2019 Agricultural Outlook1

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3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

5,50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

October 2018 forecast

April 2019 forecast

July 2019 update (only through2020)

Percent change

Growth forecasts less optimistic --- global purchasing power falls by $1.7 trillion (cumulative from 2019 – 2022)

Data: IMF

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

5,50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

October 2018 forecast

April 2019 forecast

July 2019 update (only through2020)

Percent change World GDPEmerging Markets and Developing

Countries

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Dollar mostly higher year-over-year, but mixed over the last few months

Data: Thomson Reuters Datastream

-7%

-3%

-2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Russia ruble

Japan yen

Brazil real

Taiwan dollar

Canadian dollar

Mexico peso

China yuan

Australia dollar

Korea won

Eurozone euro

Argentina peso

US$ appreciation over last 12 months46%

Since March 1

44%3%6%4%6%1%0%0%9%-3%-3%

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0,0%

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1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

1219

5019

5319

5619

5919

6219

6519

6819

7119

7419

7719

8019

8319

8619

8919

9219

9519

9820

0120

0420

0720

1020

1320

1620

1920

2220

2520

2820

3120

3420

3720

4020

4320

4620

49

Bill

ion

peop

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Developed Sub-Saharan AfricaNorth Africa and Middle East East AsiaSouth and Central Asia Latin America and CaribbeanOceania Growth Rate

World population continues to grow, though slowing

Data: UN (2017)

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SummaryRecent trends and policies have generally led to falling food prices and growth in trade

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Corn Oilseed, Soybean

Global corn and soybean exports (1000 mt)

Data: USDAhttp://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/

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http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/
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Real prices trend down, as crop production outstrips demand

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800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Real Crop Prices

Corn

Soybeans

Rice

Wheat

2005 = 100

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

World Crop Production

Corn

Soybeans

Rice

Wheat

Data: USDA, BLS

2005=100

Corn price down 59% since 1960, soybeans by 52%, rice by 70%, and wheat by 65%.

Corn output has risen 435% since 1960, soybeans by 1,190%, rice by 225%, and wheat by 215%.

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U.S. and global crop outlook

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20 days behind onaverage nationally

12 days behind onaverage nationally

This year’s corn progress has lagged behind the historical average…

Data: USDA

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8 days behind onaverage nationally

…as has soybean progress.

17 days behind onaverage nationally

Data: USDA

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Crop $/MT 2019F %∆ (YoY)

Soybeans 312 0.0%

Corn 142 0.0%

All Rice 291 +10.0%

Wheat 176 -7.0%

Cotton 1278 -17.7%

Data: USDA

5 year low 2019F 5 Year high

Higher corn and rice prices forecast, while wheat and cotton are lower10

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Crop 2019F(mil. hectares) %∆ (YoY)

Corn 36.4 +1.0%

Soybeans 31.0 -14.0%

Wheat 18.5 -4.6%

All cotton 5.6 -2.4%

Rice 1.0 -13.9%

Data: USDA

Corn acreage forecast slightly up, other crops lower

5 year low 2019F 5 Year high

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Global 2019/20 production and consumption at near-record or record highs

300

400

500

600

700

800

MMT

ProductionConsumption

Wheat

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

MMT

ProductionConsumption

Corn

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

MMT

ProductionConsumption

Soybeans

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 12, 2019

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Global stocks in days of use: tightening market for corn and soybeans next year, but wheat and rice stocks remain high

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80

100

120

140

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Days of useDays of useWheatCornRiceSoybeans

Data: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 12, 2019

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China’s ending stocks as a share of global ending stocks

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20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

PercentPercent WheatCornSoybeansCottonRice

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 12, 2019

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U.S. and global livestock outlook

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5 year low 2020F 5 Year high Livestock 2020F ($/MT) %∆ (YoY)

Steers 2535 +1.3%

Hogs 1301 +19.2%

Broilers 2028 +5.7%

Milk 416 +2.7%

Data: USDA

Low prices for U.S. steers; stronger hog and milk prices16

Page 17: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

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Item 2020F(MMTs) %∆ (YoY)

Beef 12.6 +2.6%

Pork 12.9 +2.9%

Broilers 19.7 +1.2%

Total1 48.2 +2.1%

Milk 100.3 +1.5%

Data: USDA

U.S. meat and milk production to be record high in 2020

5 year low 2020F 5 Year high

1Total red meat and poultry

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Global pork production forecast down in 2019, while projected chicken production at record level

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50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Chicken Beef Pork

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Note: Pork and beef are on Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) basis.Source: USDA (April 2019 forecast)

MMT

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ASF impacts on China’s pig crop and global pork imports

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100

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600

700

800

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2019f

Oct.2018

Apr. 2019

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0,5

1,0

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2,0

2,5

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

China Japan MexicoSouth Korea U.S. OtherChina Imports

19

China pig crop Pork import share and China import volumesMil. head

MMT (CWE)

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Outlook to 2028

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Several world events potentially setting the stage for impacting projections --- trade disruptions, African Swine Fever, poor weather

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

F20

20F

Canada Mexico China Other % of China Share

Billion dollars

U.S. exports to China down ~$18 from 2015

July 2019: 152 confirmed cases in China (all provinces), spread through Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, and North KoreaSept 2019: Philippines confirms first case (not reflected in map)Last week South Korea confirmed its first case (not reflected in map)

Data: USDA

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U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement will provide new market access

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0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

Bill

ion

$

Top (#1) U.S. Export Market#2 U.S. Export Market

Significant Tariff Barriers

Source: USDA/FAS

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

SoybeansBeef & Beef Products

CornPoultry Meat & Prods.Pork & Pork Products

Planting SeedsWine & Beer

Processed Veg.Dairy Products

Processed FruitPrepared Food

Live AnimalsFresh Fruit

Fruit & Veg. JuicesEggs & ProductsDog & Cat Food

Condiments & SaucesNon-Alcoholic Bev.

Snack FoodsFresh Vegetables

Canada Mexico

Source: USDA FAS/Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) – BICO-HS10

Canada and Mexico are top markets for U.S. agriculture23

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Next steps for USMCA under TPA24

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Global crop and meat trade projected to increase

0255075

100125150175200225250275300325

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2028

Soybeans and soybean products 1

Wheat

MMT

02468

1012141618

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2028

Poultry

Pork

MMT

Source: USDA. Meat trade is major exporters, not world total.

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Global demand drives growth in U.S. livestock and dairy exports

Data: USDA

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2,0

4,0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Mill

ion

of m

etric

tons

Beef Pork Chicken

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Mill

ion

of M

etric

tons

Dairy, Fat-Basis

Dairy, Skim Solids-Basis

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Data: USDA

… and drives growth in U.S. feed grain exportsMillion metric tons Million metric tons

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

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1999

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/02

2002

/03

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/04

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/05

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2027

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/29

Corn Wheat Soybeans

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U.S. farm economy

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Real net farm income is projected to fall

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Billion dollarsBillion dollars

Nominal Net Farm Income

Real Net Farm Income (2009$)

Data: USDA-ERS

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$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600Billion dollars

Direct government payments

Crop insurance indemnities

Farm-related income

Crop cash receipts

Animal & animal products cash receipts

Government payments make up only a small share of farm gross cash income

Data: USDA-ERS

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Bankruptcies rate remains low. Debt servicing has flattened.

Source: USDA-ERS

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4,0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20180,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

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0,25

0,30

Bankruptcies per 10,000 farms

Debt service ratio

Bankruptcy Rate Debt service ratio

Since 2015, bankruptcy rate has trended upwards as the debt service ratio has leveled.

Debt service ratio describes the share of production used for debt payments.

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Farm Policy

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19th to early 20th century: Expansion, scientific agriculture, and market development

• Land distribution and infrastructure development--to encourage settlement and markets

• Science and education—research, education and extension to improve farming and farm life

• Information, credit, and marketing—to assist farmers’ participation in changing economy

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20th-21st century: Productivity Impacts

• Securing post-war prosperity• High price supports

• Adjusting to explosive productivity gains

• Adjust price supports• Distribute surplus stocks• Increase acreage reductions

• Responding to globalization• End price supports & acreage

controls• Move toward risk

management

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…culminate in greater focus on risk management…

Decoupled payments replace target prices and deficiency payments

Planting flexibility replaces acreage and marketing controls

Crop insurance program expanded $0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

0

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100

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350

400

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Billion dollarsM

illio

n ac

ress

Insured acreage (left axis)Liability (right axis)

Data: USDA-RMA

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$-

$1 000

$2 000

$3 000

$4 000

$5 000

$6 000

$7 000

$8 000

$-

$1 000

$2 000

$3 000

$4 000

$5 000

$6 000

$7 000

$8 000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Billions

U.S. Budget

Source: CBO

Outlays

Context: Continued budget pressures limit funds for Farm Bill

Revenues

Billions

U.S. Budget (f)

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2018 Farm Bill: 4 titles dominate projected outlays

Nutrition ($326 billion)Crop Insurance ($38 billion)Commodity Policy ($31.4 billion)Conservation ($29.3 billion)Other ($3.5 billion)

TradeCreditRural Development Research, Extension, and Related Matters Forestry Energy Horticulture Miscellaneous

5-yr total = $428 billionData: CBO 2018 Farm Bill score.

Nutrition76%

Crop Insurance9%

Commodity Programs

7%

Conservation7%

Other1%

2018 Farm Bill Outlays: 2019-2023

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Generally, outlays are not projected to change under the 2018 Farm Bill

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

CommodityPrograms

Conservation

Crop Insurance

Nutrition

Other

Change in outlays from 2014 Farm Bill: 2019-2023

Source: CBO 2017 Farm Bill score and April 2018 baseline.

$325,9

$38,1

$31,3$28,7

$2,4

$326,0

$38,0

$31,4$29,3 $3,5

Nutrition

Crop Insurance

CommodityProgramsConservation

Other

2014 Farm Bill: $426.5 billion

2018 Farm Bill: $428.3 billion

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Title I: Commodities (crops)

• Remains decoupled from production base• Flexible “effective reference price”• Yield updating permitted for PLC• Yield adjustments for ARC

• Annual reelections permitted beginning crop year 2021

• Seed cotton added in 2018

39

Few changes to Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

US$ billion

Data: USDA-FSA FY19 President’s Budget and CBO Jan 2019 Baseline

PLC

ARC

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Source: CBO baseline Apr 2018, Jan 2019; USDA-FSA Dairy Margin Coverage Program data

40

Dairy program adjusted to increase potential coverage, reduce costs for producers

050

100150200250300350400450500

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

US$ billion outlays

2014 Farm Bill 2018 Farm Bill

Title I: Dairy

02468

1012141618

US$/cwt margin

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Title XI: Crop insurance • RMA tasked with developing new

coverage products• Hurricane/tropical storm

insurance product• New policy options for

specialty crops• Ease application process for

whole farm policies• Hemp

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Title II: Conservation 42

Land Retirement

Conservation Reserve Program

(CRP)

Agriculture Conservation Easements

Program (ACEP)

Working Lands

Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP)

Conservation Stewardship

Program (CSP)

Mixed

Regional Conservation Partnership

Program (RCPP)

Conservation Compliance

Highly Erodible Lands

Wetlands

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Office of the Chief Economist

Eligibility and payment limitations remain unchanged 43

Criteria ScopeConservation compliance (highly erodible soils, wetlands)

all commodity, conservation, and crop insurance programs

“actively engaged in farming” all commodity, conservation, and crop insurance programs

Adjusted Gross Income < $900,000 commodity and conservation programs Payment limitation = $125,000 per individual or entity

ARC/PLC and for the Livestock Forage Program

actively engaged in farming: to provide significant contributions to the farming operation. Contributions can consist of capital, land, and/or equipment, as well as active personal labor and/or active personal management. The management contribution must be critical to the profitability of the farming operation and the contributions must be at risk.

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Office of the Chief Economist

Other farm-related provisions

• Specialty crops• Non-insured Crop Assistance

Program buy-up option made permanent

• Renewed commitment to improving crop insurance products

• Hemp now an insurable crop and eligible for research grants

• Study commissioned on viability of hemp as an industrial crop

• Credit• Increase in maximum

authorized levels for farm ownership and operating loans

• New and disadvantaged farmers• Continued payment and loan

carve-outs and technical assistance for beginning farmers and intergenerational farm transfers

44

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Office of the Chief Economist

Organic agriculture and local foods

• Local foods• Local Agriculture Market Program—

business and market development along the local and regional food system value chains

• Gus Schumacher Nutrition Incentive Program—fresh fruits & vegetables to SNAP participants and a new Produce Prescription Program for at-risk low-income

• Office of Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production—research on urban, indoor, and other alternative agriculture production methods

• Organic agriculture• Conservation provisions for

organic producers and transitioning producers

• Inclusion of organic producers in Market Access program

• New permanent funding for research

• Certification cost-share• Data initiatives• Improved crop insurance

45

Page 46: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

Office of the Chief Economist

Title III: Trade • Consolidates market

development programs to enhance effort to build new markets for U.S. agriculture and food products

• Expands international technical assistance and extension programs to improve trade and address global food insecurity

46

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Priority Trade Fund Specialty Crop Tech Assistance Emerging Markets Foreign Market Development Cooperator Market Access Program

Agriculture Trade Promotion and Facilitation Program

Data: CBO budget projections Mar 2016-Apr 2018; Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018.

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Office of the Chief Economist

Title IV: Nutrition

• Funding is increased for SNAP employment and training program; no changes to work requirements

• General SNAP eligibility is for families < 130% of poverty line (approximately $27,000 for a family of three)

47

SNAP outlays are the largest share of Farm Bill spending and of overall nutrition spending

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US$ billion

Fiscal Year

Child Nutrition Programs

Page 48: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

Office of the Chief Economist

Title VII: Research and Extension• New Agricultural

Advanced Research and Development Authority (AGARDA) will focus on basic and long-term research not supported by industry

48

Source: USDA-ERS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Allocation of R&D spending differs between public and private sources (2013)

Public sector

Private sector

US$ billion

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Office of the Chief Economist

Title VI: Rural Development

• Prioritizes program funding for projects to address substance abuse disorders

• Expands focus on providing and enhancing high-speed broadband and other digital services

• Requires reinstatement of the Under Secretary for Rural Development position

49

Page 50: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

Office of the Chief Economist

But farm policy has also responded to unexpected conditions…

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/equipment/article/2018/09/04/farmers-typically-sell-soybeans-may

50

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/equipment/article/2018/09/04/farmers-typically-sell-soybeans-may
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Office of the Chief Economist

Characteristics of US farm programs changing over time; crop insurance increasing in importance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

e20

19f

Bill

ion

dolla

rs (2

019$

)

CoupledPartially decoupledDecoupledEmergencyConservationCrop insurance

WHIP 1.0

MFP 1.0

10-year average = $20.2 billion per year--- $6.7 billion from crop insurance

Data: USDA, fiscal year.

51

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Office of the Chief Economist

Crop insurance indemnities began to replace ad hoc assistance with ARPA in 2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Bill

ion

dolla

rs (2

019$

)

Ad hoc assistance Permanent supplemental assistance Producer net indemnities

Data: USDA FSA and RMA.

52

Page 53: 2019 Agricultural Outlook - agriDées · Office of the Chief Economist 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986

Office of the Chief Economist

WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and DemandEstimates (Next WASDE Oct. 10)

Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides

FAS: World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latest WASDE related publications

USDA/NASS Crop Progress Report

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028

53

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdf
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/USDA_Agricultural_Projections_to_2028.pdf

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