2018 WEEK 03 EDITION #01 - RVB Company · 2018. 6. 26. · 2 MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 03 –...

MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 03 – EDITION #01

2


1/ VEGOILS – SOUTH AMERICA

Edible Update – volume fixed since our last report: 516.900mt / YTD 626.700 mt

Vegoil traders are slowly starting to put programs together for cargoes from South America. January exports

are expected to be in line with the 5-year average, however in terms of new fixtures the picture is a bit less

bright as almost 130.000 metric tonnes of the January line up are spill over from December.

At the time of writing no January stems (vegoil or sme) are being quoted. What is an unknown factor is how

much the newly instated export tax on SME is going to influence the flow into NW Europe/Med. The

Argentine government has raised the export tax from 0% to 8% as of January 1st. Some traders don’t expect

this to have a big impact where other feel it might reduce the share of SME in the total exports from

Argentina.

Freights have firmed somewhat over the past weeks. The benchmark rate into India now stands around

$35/36 PMT on 40kt lots.

EDIBLE OIL/SME FREIGHT ESTIMATES - WEEK 50 2017 THIS WEEK CHANGE TREND

ARGENTINA/WEST MED 18/20000T 1/1 $45/47 $2 →↗

ARGENTINA/WEST MED 25/30000T 1/1 $30/33 $2 →↗

ARGENTINA/EAST MED 18/20000T 1/1 $46/49 +$2 →↗

ARGENTINA/EAST MED 25/30000T 1/1 $31/34 +$2 →↗

ARG/NWEUROPE 18/20000T 1/1 - NON FOSFA $46/48 +$1 →↗

ARG/NWEUROPE 25/30000T 1/1 - NON FOSFA $32/33 +$1 →↗

ARGENTINA/CARIBS 18/20000T 1/1 $42/45 +$1 →↗

ARGENTINA/USG 30/320000T 1/1 $31/33 +$1 →↗

ARGENTINA/INDIA 30/32000T 1/2 $37/39 $0 →

ARGENTINA BRASIL/INDIA 40/42000T 2/2 $34/36 $0 →

ARGENTINA / IRAN 30/32000T 1/1 $46/48 +$1 →↗

ARGENTINA BRASIL/FAR EAST - 40/42000T 2/2 $44/45 +$1 →↗

ARGENTINA BRASIL/CHINA - 40/42000T 2/2 - CIQ $47/49 +$1 →↗

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

MONTHLY EXPORT VOLUMES SOUTH AMERICA

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5yr Ø

3


A fairly tight tonnage list, a firm CPP market in the Atlantic and a softening CPP market in the Far-East are the

driving force behind these rate hikes. One of the reasons for a smaller tonnage list is the increase in CPP

export cargoes from Brazil. The fact that bunkers have kept steadily increasing the past few months Owners

would need to see higher rates to keep seeing the same returns on the long-haul voyages to the East. In the

owning community, the general consensus is that CPP freights in the West will stay firm during Q1 and will

soften going forward. On this basis, we would be surprised to see rates dropping ex South America in the

short to medium term.

REPORTED FIXTURES

VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT JAN FREIGHT

CIELO DI SALERNO 29.000 VEGS ARGY UPR PERU 1/10 MID $30S

CHEMSTAR MASA 18.000 VEGS ARGY UPR MOR+ALG 1H MID/HI $40S

NORD VALIANT 23.000 VEGS ARGY UPR/NECO VERACRUZ 10/15 $30 1/1

BOW TRAJECTORY 34.500 VEGS ARGY/BRZL INDIA 07/10 MID/HI $30 1/2

SPIRIT 40.000 VEGS ARGY/BRZL INDIA 1H MID/HI $30 2/2

SW ANDREA C. 40.000 VEGS ARGY/BRZL INDIA 2H MID $30 2/2

AQUILA 30.000 VEGS ARGY UPR MAD+INDIA 1H MID/HI $30 1/2

GOLDENGATE PARK 13.700 VEGS ARGY UPR PERU MID MID/HI $40S

CHAMPION EBONY 30.000 VEGS PARANAGUA INDIA MID MID/HI $30 1/2

TIGER HARMONY 19.000 VEGS ARGY UPR WC INDIA END MID $40S

VENUS 34.000 VEGS ARGY UPR INDIA/BANGLADESH END INHOUSE

CAPE DALY 12.000 VEGS ARGY/BRZL AUSTRALIA MID COA

SPICA 33.000 VEGS ARGY UPR INDIA ELY MID/HI $30 1/2

S. EXCELLENCE 30.000 BIO ARGY UPR ROTTERDAM 2H $825K LUMPS

NAVE CAPELLA 30.000 BIO ARGY UPR ROTTERDAM 20/30 $850K LUMPS

ISOLA BLANCA 30.000 BIO ARGY UPR MED/CONT 15/25 ARD $825K LPS

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

OWNERS TOTALS IN MT FOR 2017

4


2/ VEGOILS – BLACK SEA

Sun oil exports exceeded expectations and are likely to continue to increase both seasonally and from a year

before in December. The year-on-year growth occurred primarily in shipments to Egypt, Iran and Iraq, there

was a reduced export into Turkey which has been taken over by direct shipments into Iraq, which has been

a change in the sun oil flows. In Iraq, a new refining facility started in early 2017. Iraq has become a more

important buyer for crude sun oil ex Black Sea, not only from Russia but also ex Ukraine and from Argentina.

The Mediterranean CPP X-med market is instable at the moment with a softening trend compared to the last

two weeks, new enquiries are slim and there are still a good number of vessels open, a lacklustre week for

MR’s, it will be interesting to see if the market will soften further or pick up again towards the end of January.

With temperatures getting milder again in the Black Sea region we don’t expect there will be ice formation

on short notice, so this will not have an impact on expected freight rates until the end of January.

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

sept oct nov dec jan feb march april may june july aug

MONTHLY VEGOIL VOLUMES EX UKRAINE SEASON 2014/2018

season 2014-2015 season 2015-2016 season 2016-2017 season 2017-2018

192.380

33.000 32.100 29.900 28.70019.987 16.789

6.000 6.000 4.000 4.000 3.000 1.5000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

VOLUMES PER DESTINATION EX UKRAINE JANUARY 2018

5


3/ PALMOIL - ASIA

The year has started with a splutter, CPP in most areas has taken a dive especially in the AG. However, palm

rates have resisted in general and not fallen as sharply due to a slight tightness in Fosfa tonnage.

Signs in the Far-East CPP look positive with a bit more activity and a fair bit of enquiry being reported in the

last few days but rates have yet to increase.

REPORTED TIME CHARTER FIXTURES REPORTED TIME CHARTER FIXTURES

REPORTED TIME CHARTER FIXTURES VESSEL SIZE DELIVERY RE-DELIVERY DEC T/C RATE

ZAMBEZI STAR (FAILED) 37.500 CHINA EMED-BSEA 10-20 14,250 PD

NORD PEARL (FAILED) 49.000 PHILIPPINES CONT 20-25 18,500 PD

SITEAM DISCOVERER 45.000 S. KOREA WMED-ARA 15-22 15,500 PD

VESSEL SIZE DELIVERY RE-DELIVERY JAN T/CRATE

STI ESLES II 49.000 CHINA MED CONT USA 1-10 16,500 PD

NORD OCEANIA 49.000 JAPAN MED CONT USA 1-10 16,500 PD

NORD OLYMPIA 49.000 JAPAN MED CONT USA 25-30 16,500 PD

TOSCA (FAILED) 45.000 PASSING EAST TIMOR REDEL USG 1-10 16,500 PD

TOSCA 45.000 EAST MALAYSIA REDEL USG 1-10 16,500 PD

UACC QAMAR 45.000 SPORE EMED-BSEA OR RSEA 17-25 16,000 PD

NCC DANAH 45.000 CHINA USA 15-25 16,750 PD

AMOR 49.000 STRAITS MED-CONT 20-30 15,500 PD

TORM HORIZON (FAILED) 46.000 STRAITS WAF (REDEL GIB) 10-15 15,000 PD

ARISTIDIS 37.500 PANJANG WAF (REDEL GIB) 15-20 14,000 PD

VERIGE 52.000 PHIL ( GLADSTONE) MED 10-15 17,500 PD

GEMMA 40.000 EAST MALAYSIA MED/CONT 1-10 15,000 PD

10.000

11.000

12.000

13.000

14.000

15.000

16.000

17.000

18.000

19.000ROTTERDAM TCT (DELIVERY STRAITS)

6


Parcel rates have been quite stable and have remained at end 2017 levels on the smaller sizes as fewer

owners are currently willing to parceling up. The outlook in general looks slightly positive, as owners believe

the low points have already been reached in the AG and far east CPP and hope any upward pressure will be

passed onto the palms / chems markets. Nevertheless, this needs to happen soon otherwise owners will be

looking to push for palms while CPP suffers.

VOYAGE FIXTURES – LONG HAUL VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT DEC FREIGHT

WILMAR TBN 6.000 POP LAHAD DATU ROTTERDAM 15-25 53 1/1

TRF MARQUETTE 35.000 POP EMALAY USG-USEC 15-20 50 3/4

TIGER GLORY 5.000 POP BINTULU ROTTERDAM 15-21 56 1/1

T REX 40.000 POP PHIL-EMALAY ROTTERDAM 20-25 51 4/1

STOLT SAGALAND 6.000 BASEOIL MELAKA ANTWERP 24-26 64 1/1

NORD PEARL 43.000 POP EMALAY + STRAITS ROTTERDAM 15-25 47 4/1

NAVIG8 STELLAR 5.000 POP STRAITS IZMIR 10-20 65 1/1

FAIRCHEM SUCCESS 21.000 POP STRAITS USG + USEC 20-30 67 3/1

AMFITRION 34.500 POP LUBUK GAUNG TAMAN 25-28 45 2/1

VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT JAN FREIGHT

A. CHEYENNE 25.000 POP STRAITS DURBAN + EAF 1-10 RNR

ATLANTIC CANYON 34.500 POP STRAITS TAMAN 5-10 44 2/1

BRITTA MAERSK 25.000 POP BEALWAN + STRAITS WMED 15-25 50 2/2

BOW HECTOR 25.000 POP STRAITS ROTTERDAM 20-30 46 2/1

CEASAR 34.000 TCT KUANTAN + STRAITS EMED/BSEA 2-4 50 2/4

CHAMPION ISTRA 40.000 POP EMALAY-STRAITS ROTTERDAM 1-10 49 2/1

CHEM TIGER 18.000 POP STRAITS APAPA 20-25 69 1/1

F. CHARGER 20.000 POP STRAITS HUELVA 1-10 60 2/1

F. SUCCESS 18.000 POP EMALAY USG+USEC 1-10 86 2/2

LINCOLN PARK 18.500 POP GRESIK + STRAITS WMED + RDAM 10-20 67 2/3

MARIOS G (FAILED) 30.000 POP PELINGTUNG VENICE 24-28 47.25 1/1

M. MERIDIAN 10.000 POP STRAITS SANTOS + PAR 15-20 69 1/2

MEARSK BEAUFORT 27.000 POP STRAITS TAMAN 25-30 44 2/1

MED PACIFIC 22.000 POP MALAY MED + WAFR 20-30 65 2/4

MTM NEW YORK 32.000 POP STRAITS-EMALAY SAVANNAH 15-20 60 3/1

MTM SINGAPORE 18.000 POP KUANTAN + STRAITS BSEA 15-23 57 2/2

OCTADEN 18.000 POP STRAITS ROTTERDAM 20-30 76 2/1

STI ESLES II 42.000 POP L. GAUNG + DUMAI ROTTERDAM 5-15 45 2/1

STOLT SAGALAND 5.000 PME PELINGTUNG ROTTERDAM 1-5 55 1/1

TIGER JOY 25.000 POP STRAITS RDAM + AARHUS 20-30 68 3/2

TRF MEMPHIS 5.000 POP DUMAI ROTTERDAM 5-10 61 1/1

ZAMBEZI STAR 32.000 POP L. DATU + STRAITS ROTTERDAM 15-25 RNR

7


VOYAGE FREIGHT ASSESSMENT

DISCHARGE AREA QUANTITY RANGE FREIGHT PMT TREND

M CHINA 10-15,000 31-33 ↗

EC INDIA 10-15,000 24-26 ↘

WC INDIA - PAKISTAN RGE 10-15,000 28-30 ↘

MIDDLE EAST 10-15,000 32-34 →

ROTTERDAM 15-25,000 55-60 →

ROTTERDAM 2/1 40-42,000 44-47 ↗

WMED (IMO3) 2/2 40-42,000 43-46 ↗

WEST MED (IMO2) 2/2 18-20,000 65-70 →

EAST MED - BLACK SEA 12-18,000 56-59 →

BLACK SEA 25-35,000 44-45 →

USG - USAC (IMO3) 2/1 35-40,000 50-53 →

WEST AFRICA (IMO3) 2/2 15-20,000 59-65 ↗

BRAZIL (IMO3) 2/2 20-25,000 62-68 →

SINGAPORE BUNKERS

FUEL PRICE TREND

IFO 380 USD 395.00 ↗

TIME CHARTER MARKET (FOSFA EU1)

VESSEL PRICE (GROSS) PD DELIVERY REDELIVERY TREND

MR USD 15,500 - 16,500 LOADPORT MED/CONT/USG →

8


4/ UAN The markets for UAN have been very lacklustre at the start of this year. With no representative fixtures being

reported at all and with one or two cargoes failing subjects for varying reasons. Traders are waiting for

American and French buyers to start sourcing their spring season product and until they do we expect the

UAN shipping market to remain quiet. That being said there is definitely something stirring at the time of

writing this report. Freight quotes are being asked from most major loading areas to discharge in the States,

Europe and even Australia. This is normally a sign that people are gearing up to start moving again.

Freights, if and when fixed for loading in the next two to three weeks are expected to turn out some dollars

above last years last done levels. A fairly firm western CPP market is putting a firming trend on all rates, both

in the Med/Blsea and on the Cont/Baltic.

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

UAN IMPORTS UNITED STATES 2013/2018 (SO FAR)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

UAN EXPORTS UNITED STATES PER YEAR

2016

20152014

20132012

2017

9


55

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

n-1

5Ju

l-1

5A

ug-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-1

6Ju

l-1

6A

ug-

16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6D

ec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

n-1

7Ju

l-1

7A

ug-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7D

ec-

17

Jan

-18

WO

RLD

SCA

LE

UA

N $

PM

T

TRANS ATLANTIC CPP (TC2) VS UAN BALTIC AND BSEA JAN 2015 - PRESENT

30000MT BSEA/USAC 35000MT BALTIC/ T-A TC2

10


5/ STORAGE The year ended very positive for the European chemical and vegetable oil terminals. High occupancy rates are seen, which not necessary mean high throughput rates. The tanks are rented at healthy rates. For the petroleum terminals, 2017 ended less positive. Many diesel and fuel oil tanks are available for rent and although gasoline tanks are still in demand, the occupancy is low since product can be traded without storing the product at good profit. Globally we see this trend as well with a few exceptions driven by cold weather (USA) or temporary reasons. Terminal Investment Overview In the last months of 2017 we have seen many changes in ownership of storage locations. Either investment companies have acquired tank terminal facilities or major oil companies have integrated more downstream locations in their portfolio. An overview:

• TransMontaigne completes acquisition of 2 storage terminals from Plains • Shell Midstream buys 5 US storage terminals • Ineos acquires Forties pipeline system and Kinneil terminal in Scotland • Zenith Energy completes Arc Logistics acquisition with 21 terminals • Zenith Energy acquired Shell Hamburg-Harburg Terminal • Oiltanking Odfjell Terminal Singapore change shareholders • HES International acquired VALT Bitumen Terminal

Oil Market 2017 has been quite a bullish year for oil and oil product futures prices, all posting decent returns on the exchanges. Oil supply/demand balances have improved: US and OECD stocks have fallen last year but shale oil has made a massive comeback too, mitigating the fall. Brent has been in a steady backwardation across the curve over the second half of 2017. Longer dated Gasoil and Fuel oil markets are backwardated as well, although the front of these markets have been or still are in a small contango, giving some possibilities to blenders. Therefore decent interest remains in smaller and flexible fuel and distillate tanks with blending capabilities. Gasoline storage requests were ample, there has been decent demand also for bigger size tanks. The curve shows a profitable contango in the first months and a decent seasonal contango basis the spec change thereafter. In Q417, requests for gasoline storage in the USGC and NYH were seen as well. China On January 1, 2018, China formally enacted the environmental law that took them 6 years to prepare. One of the side effects of this implementation is the closure of thousands of smaller chemical plants and the levy of VOC's taxes. (China also officially opened a marketplace for trading in CO2 credits at the end of last year.) Because of these developments, inter-regional imbalances of supply and demand within China for chemicals has never been larger. This pushes up the demand for chemical storage tanks, especially with reputable storage terminals who are enjoying above 90% occupancy rate at the moment. For further information / requirements / quotes: [email protected] Tel: +31 (0) 1050 66020

mailto:[email protected]

11


6/ EVENTS RVB Shipbrokers

• Price Outlook Conference (POC) Kuala Lumpur, 06/08th of March 2018

• FOSFA annual dinner in Rotterdam at “De Doelen”, 12 April 2018

RVB Tankstorage

• Platts Amsterdam, 25-26 January 2018

• IP Week London, 20-22 February 2018

• Base oils and lubricants Conference, 21-23 February 2018

• StocExpo Europe Rotterdam, 20-22 March 2018

• AFPM Petrochemicals San Antonio TX, 25-27 March 2018

7/ LOCAL NEWS More vessels call on a safer Rotterdam Over the past year, 29,646 sea-going vessels entered the port of Rotterdam. This is over 600 more than the

preceding year (29,022 sea-going vessels). The number of incidents in the port fell from 159 to 129. This

unfortunately included one ‘serious accident’. The incident in question involved an inland vessel that went

adrift after hitting a groyne with its rudder. According to National Harbour Master René de Vries, the

decrease in the number of minor incidents can be explained by the Port Authority’s investments in

infrastructure in recent years. “Thanks to the new buoy configurations and dolphins, there were considerably

fewer minor bollard-ship collisions and fewer barges went adrift due to bad weather.”

Efficiency in inspections continued to increase further in 2017. Over the past five years, the number of

inspections decreased from 11,000 to approximately 8,500.

Digitalisation

The past year marks the Port Authority’s first participation in a pilot project that focuses on autonomous

shipping. The Harbour Master expects this trend to become explicitly relevant for Rotterdam in the medium

term and is introducing standardizations with the port’s Traffic Guidance System to prepare it accordingly. In

2018, the Port Authority will continue to participate in pilot projects that take structural advantage of

autonomous shipping – and unmanned aircraft – in its own operations.

2017 saw various worldwide agreements being signed about international terminology within the shipping

sector. This development is important for the PRONTO (Port Rendezvous Of Nautical and Terminal

Operations) project. This online communications platform supports ship agents and other operators. The

main objective is to realize a more transparent and efficient planning of ship services, including pilotage and

the use of terminal and bunker services. This results in fewer and shorter delays. The PRONTO application is

presently functional and is being tested and used in Rotterdam within a number of pilot projects (in

collaboration with Maersk, Shell, MSC and various terminals and service providers). The initial results are

promising: the first pilot projects yielded 20% time savings in port calls. PRONTO will be rolled out further

over the course of 2018.

12


8/ Chartering Team

ROTTERDAM OFFICE

Roy Bekenes

+31 105066011

[email protected]

+31 641143399

Victor van der Blom

+31 105066005

[email protected]

+31 627002806

Patrick Hartman

+31 105066003

[email protected]

+31 651523803

Ruud Rijpstra

+31 105066002

[email protected]

+31 653927626

Joep van Huizen

+31 105066010

[email protected]

+31 613327880

SINGAPORE OFFICE

Sean Campbell

+65 6829 2148

[email protected]

+65 8121 2094

Harry Gabb

+65 6829 2147

[email protected]

+65 87888969
http://www.rvbcompany.com/rvb-shipbrokers-singapore/https://www.linkedin.com/company/1747178/https://www.linkedin.com/company/1747178/http://www.rvbcompany.com/rvb-shipbrokers-rotterdam/

2018 WEEK 03 EDITION #01 - RVB Company · 2018. 6. 26. · 2 MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 03 –...

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