2018 AURORA HUMANITARIAN INDEX - auroraprize.com · Myanmar Drought and famine i n o malia...
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2 0 1 8 AU RO R AH U M A N I TA R I A N
I N D E X
THE AURORA HUMANITARIAN
INDEX
The Aurora Humanitarian Index is an annual global
survey that examines public perceptions of major
humanitarian issues. It explores the international public’s
attitudes toward both responsibility and effectiveness
of humanitarian intervention, as well as the motivations
that urge people to intervene on behalf of others.
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CONTENTS
Background and methodology
Executive Summary
Key Findings
Growing risk of war, while terrorism remains the most pressing global humanitarian threat
Risk of war as a cause of displacement
Information bias leading to misconceptions about the global refugee crisis
Public opinion divided on welcoming refugees
Sorting out the issue is a joint effort for the international community
NGOs as facilitators of global cooperation
People feel compelled to help and want to know how donations are being used
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11
15
30
37
43
49
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A R M E N I A
I R A NJA PA N
L E B A N O N
T U R K E Y
RU S S I A
G E R M A N Y
F R A N C E
U K
U N I T E D S TAT E S
A RG E N T I N A
K E N YA
AURORA HUMANITARIAN INDEX BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY
2016 Aurora Humanitarian Index was conducted between March and April 2016 in six countries:
1,000 respondents in France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States
300 respondents in Iran and Lebanon
Total of 4,600 interviews
Aurora Humanitarian Index was conducted between February and March 2017 in 12 countries:
1,000 respondents in France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States
300 in Argentina, Armenia, Iran, Japan, Kenya, Lebanon, Russia, Turkey
Total of 6,466 interviews
2017
Aurora Humanitarian Index was conducted between March and April 2018 in 12 countries:
1,000 respondents in France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, Argentina, Japan, Armenia, Russia, Turkey
300 in Iran, Kenya, Lebanon
Total of 10,844 online interviews
2018
With support ofResearch partner
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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K E Y H E A D L I N E S Y E A R - O N -Y E A R
2016
2017
2018
▪ There is a gulf between perception and reality: the public underestimates the number of Syrian refugees by staggering amounts.
▪ There is a ‘‘compassion gap’’: a large gap exists between what people say they feel versus what they would be willing to actually do. Though a vast majority agreed refugees deserve help, only one in two would actually help Syrian refugees if they could.
▪ Misinformation and cynicism dominate public perceptions about refugees: the majority of the public confuses refugees with economic and other types of migrants.
▪ Support for humanitarian action is on the decline: though a majority of respondents agree refugees deserve help, only 37% would welcome refugees into their own countries.
▪ Isolationism and nationalism extend beyond politics: 34% of respondents feel their country is threatened by ethnic minorities, while one third view migrants as a threat to their religious beliefs.
▪ Hope lies with the next generation of humanitarians: younger people value diversity and are more confident in their capacity to drive impact.
▪ Concern over the risk of war is growing: risk of war is growing as a humanitarian challenge and is seen as the top reason people leave their homes around the world.
▪ Children have become humanitarian collateral damage: though children are at tremendous risk, people largely underestimate the proportion of the next generation impacted by humanitarian crises.
▪ The resurgence of leaders: the global population is more confident in representatives from the international community and their ability to address refugee crisis; business leaders are emerging as key actors and leaders in facing humanitarian challenges.
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
▪ Concern over the risk of war is growing: Terrorism remains the most pressing global humanitarian threat but risk of war is growing. It is now the second or third most pressing challenge across almost all countries and is seen as the top cause leading people to leave their home across the globe. The civil war in Syria is perceived as the challenge that has caused the most displacement.
▪ People are experiencing ‘‘crisis overload’’: 61% say there are too many humanitarian crises to keep up with in the world today. People feel they always hear the same stories and that coverage of the issue focuses on the same countries all the time (54%). People continue to get it wrong when it comes to the countries most affected and assume that developed countries host the most refugees.
▪ Children have become humanitarian collateral damage: Despite children being at tremendous risk in the global refugee crisis, 77% of people do not know or underestimate the proportion of displaced people who are children. However, the plight of children is a catalyst for action: knowing that a humanitarian issue affects children is the number 1 reason that make people feel responsible to act.
▪ The resurgence of leaders: Representatives from the international community and organizations rank high when it comes to having the capabilities to address the refugee crisis: Donald Trump has risen 10 points from the past research and is on par with other global leaders, Angela Merkel is seen as a key figure, as are representatives of the UN such as Filippo Grandi. Business leaders also came through as key players capable to act with Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg emerging as the leaders with the strongest capabilities, sometimes on par with political leaders.
▪ NGOs have a clear mandate to take an active role when it comes to addressing humanitarian crises. People recognize their positive impact on the world’s humanitarian challenges and see them as the most trusted bodies when it comes to providing the right level of aid to help address the crisis. People believe NGOs would be much more effective if they were supported by governments - this speaks to the importance of building partnerships. Local NGOs are recognized as key when it comes to taking an active role on the ground for refugees and helping those most in need, while international NGOs are seen as key bodies able to identify politicians across the globe.
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GROWING RISK OF WAR,
WHILE TERRORISM REMAINS
THE MOST PRESSING GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN THREAT
‘‘The 2018 Aurora Humanitarian Index provides a wealth of revealing and valuable information regarding citizen perceptions toward humanitarian issues. The Index is a useful guide for international institutions and governments as they engage with stakeholders, including youth who are our future leaders.’’
The World Bank
KEY FINDING
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9Q1: In your opinion, which of the following are the most pressing, global humanitarian challenges facing humanity right now?
Terrorism (80%)
Terrorism (74%)
Terrorism (69%)
Terrorism (67%)
Terrorism (64%)
Terrorism (51%)
War/Risk of war (72%)
War/Risk of war (65%)
Climate change(57%)
Climate Change(63%)
War/Risk of war (49%)
Protection of children (42%)
Climate Change(52%)
Protection of children (47%)
Hunger (57%)
War/Risk of war (61%)
Climate change(47%)
War/Risk of war (41%)
USAUKFrance Germany
Lebanon Iran
1st
2nd
3rd
T E R RO R I S M R E M A I N S O N E O F T H E M O S T P R E S S I N G H U M A N I TA R I A N I S S U E S FAC I N G
T H E W O R L D TO DAY
ArgentinaJapanKenya Armenia
Russia Turkey
Terrorism (50%)
Climate change(52%)
Terrorism (46%)
War/Risk of war (67%)
Hunger (66%)
War/Risk of war (30%)
War/Risk of war (37%)
Hunger (49%)
War/Risk of war (44%)
Terrorism (40%)
Access to clean water (54%)
Access to clean water (27%)
Protection of children (30%)
Terrorism (48%)
Relief from natural disasters (40%)
Protection of children (29%)
Climate change(52%)
Terrorism (22%)
1st
2nd
3rd
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
10Q1: In your opinion, which of the following are the most pressing, global humanitarian challenges facing humanity right now?
WA R / R I S K O F WA R I S N O W A TO P C O N C E R N AC RO S S M U LT I P L E C O U N T R I E S
63%
41%
42%
42%
33%
39%
42%
21%
24%
17%
58%
52%
44%
41%
36%
36%
34%
25%
24%
24%
15%
Terrorism
War / Risk of war
Climate change
Hunger (e.g. famine, food scarcity)
Protection of children (e.g. health, safety and education)
Access to clean water (e.g. drought, water sanitation)
Forced migration (e.g. refugees, asylum seekers)
Relief from natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, floods)
Preventable diseases (e.g. outbreaks, pandemics)
Protection of women (e.g. health, safety and women's rights)
Forced Labor (e.g. slavery)
+11pts
-8pts
No data for wave 2
2017 2018
2017 total respondents across 12 countries=6466 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
YEAR-ON-YEAR EVOLUTION OF HUMANITARIAN CHALLENGES
2017 / 2018Most pressing global humanitarian challenges facing the world right now
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RISK OF WAR AS A CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT
‘‘The wars driving so much of refugee flight can be difficult to solve, but solutions for the refugees fleeing these conflicts should be, in theory, much easier. Yet the world’s richest countries increasingly feel burdened by the refugee flow, even though the vast majority of today’s refugees live in developing countries.’’
Kenneth RothExecutive Director
Human Rights Watch
KEY FINDING
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HALF SEE WAR / RISK OF WAR AS T H E N U M B E R O N E C AU S E L E A D I N G
PEOPLE TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES
Q32: Which of the following do you think are the top 3 causes leading to people leaving their homes/countries in the last 12 months?
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
6%
12%
20%
52%
Other
Risk of preventable diseases(e.g. outbreaks, pandemics)
Climate change
Forced Labor (e.g. slavery)
No access to clean water(e.g. drought, water sanitation)
Natural disasters(e.g. earthquakes, floods)
Hunger (e.g. famine, foodscarcity)
Terrorism
War/risk of war
38%
47%
47%
48%
48%
51%
51%
54%
57%
57%
58%
64%
USA
Lebanon
Japan
Argentina
Armenia
UK
Iran
France
Kenya
Turkey
Russia
Germany
Top cause leading people to leave their home globally:
War / risk of war as a top cause by country:
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DISPLACEMENT DUE TO CONFLICT / V I O L E N C E H A S N E A R LY D O U B L E D S I N C E 2 0 0 0 AND INCREASED SHARPLY IN LAST FIVE YEARS
Source: Global Report on Internal Displacement 2017 www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/
By the end of 2016, 40.3 million people were internally displaced because of conflict and violence in the world
Refugees and IDPs displaced by conflict and violence, 1990 to 2016
IDPs Refugees
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52%
9% 8% 7% 5%3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Civil war in Syria
War in Afghanistan
Refugee crisis in Europe
Internal violence
in Iraq
Persecution of the
Rohingya in Myanmar
Drought and famine in Somalia
Conflict and famine
in South Sudan
Drought and famine in Ethiopia
Conflict and famine
in Nigeria
Conflict and famine
in Yemen
Conflict and famine in theD.R. Congo
Q34: In your opinion, which of the below have caused the most displacement of people from their homes?
M O R E T H A N H A L F T H I N K THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS THE NUMBER ONE
C AU S E O F D I S P L AC E M E N T
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
TOP CRISIS CAUSING MOST DISPLACEMENT OF PEOPLE FROM THEIR HOMES
78% in Lebanon and 73% in Turkey think the civil war in Syria is
the top cause of displacement
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INFORMATION BIAS
LEADING TO MISCONCEPTIONS
ABOUT THE GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS
‘‘The Humanitarian Index gives some hints as to what might be done: Classic media (TV, print, radio) still enjoy quite a lot of trust, but many people would like a more diverse coverage on global migration issues. At the same time, many people feel that they always hear the same stories about the same (Western, European) countries. Thus, a more balanced and fact-based media coverage of migration and refugee issues, illustrating chances as well as risks, and offering more analysis on the impact of migration in other world regions, would be helpful.’’
Nadine BiehlerAssociate in the Global Issues Division
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
Steffen AngenendtHead of the Global Issues DivisionGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
KEY FINDING
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S E N T I M E N T & AWA R E N E S S O F H U M A N I TA R I A N C R I S E S AC RO S S
T H E G LO B E
Q47: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
There are too many humanitarian crises to keep up
with in the world today
61%A G R E E
82%
77%
68%
65%
63%
60%
59%
59%
56%
56%
50%
46%
LEBANON
KENYA
ARGENTINA
TURKEY
FRANCE
RUSSIA
ARMENIA
GERMANY
IRAN
UK
USA
JAPAN
WE ARE EXPERIENCING ″CRISIS OVERLOAD″
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T V R E M A I N S T H E M O S T T R U S T E D S O U RC E O F I N F O R M AT I O N A B O U T
R E F U G E E C R I S I S
Q48: How much do you trust the following groups/institutions to give you accurate information about the global refugee crisis? 2018 total respondents across 12 countries= 10844
BUT THE LEVEL OF TRUST IS GRADUALLY DECLINING FROM 67% IN 2016 AND 59% IN 2017
Level of trust in sources that give accurate information about the global refugee crisis
57%
53%
52%
52%
TV
Friends & family
Print media (Newspapers, magazines)
Radio
Search engines (Google, Yahoo, Bing, others)
Social media (Facebook, Twitter, others)
Other online sources
E-mail (e.g. newsletters)
Blogs
SMS / text message
MORE TRUSTED
LESS TRUSTED
47%
36%
36%
30%
27%
18%
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PERCEPTION VS. REALITY
5 4 %
3 0 %
2 4 %
2 1 %
2 1 %
1 5 %
1 3 %
1 1 %
1 0 %
9 %
6 0 % 5 0 % 4 0 % 3 0 % 2 0 % 1 0 % 0 %
GERMANY
FRANCE
TURKEY
USA
ITALY
UK
GREECE
CANADA
SPAIN
RUSSIA
D E V E LO P E D VS. D E V E LO P I N G C O U N T R I E S
Countries that have accepted the highest number of refugees over the past decade
Q13: Based on what you know, which countries have accepted the highest number of refugees over the last decade? 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
2018
GETTING IT WRONG ON REFUGEES.. .AGAIN
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2 . 9
1 . 4
1
0 . 9 7 9
0 . 9 4
0 . 7 9 1
0 . 6 8 5
0 . 6 6 9
0 . 4 5 2
0 . 4 5 1
TURKEY
PAKISTAN
LEBANON
IRAN
UGANDA
ETHIOPIA
JORDAN
GERMANY
D.R. CONGO
KENYA
Countries hosting most refugees in 2017 (in millions) UNHCR
UNHCR SOURCE: UNHCR - Global Trends Report 2016, UNHCR Global Appeal Report 2018/2019
PERCEPTION VS. REALITY
D E V E LO P E D VS. D E V E LO P I N G C O U N T R I E S GETTING IT WRONG ON REFUGEES.. .AGAIN
20Q42B: What proportion of displaced people currently being hosted by developing countries?
T H E P U B L I C W RO N G LY A S S U M E S T H AT M O S T D I S P L AC E D P E O P L E A R E H O S T E D
B Y D E V E LO P E D C O U N T R I E S LO C AT E D I N E U RO P E A N D N O RT H A M E R I C A
BUT
2018 Total respondents across 12 countries=10844
of displaced people find refuge in developing
countries
of people don’t know or underestimate this
proportion
84% 97%
Source: UNHCR, http://www.unhcr.org/5943e8a34
21Q50: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
H A L F F E E L C OV E R AG E O F T H E G LO B A L R E F U G E E C R I S I S I S F O C U S E D O N
D E V E LO P E D C O U N T R I E S
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
Coverage about the global refugee crisis focuses on the consequences in developed countries as opposed
to developing ones
52%A G R E E
68% 66%61%
54% 54% 54%50% 49%
47% 46% 46%42%
LEB
AN
ON
KEN
YA
AR
GEN
TIN
A
TUR
KEY
FRA
NC
E
RU
SSIA
AR
MEN
IA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
22Q50: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
M O R E O F T H E S A M E W H E N I T C O M E S TO COVERAGE OF THE GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
64% 63% 60% 58% 58% 57% 56%52% 50%
46% 45%42%
64% 62% 62% 60% 59% 57%53%
48% 48% 47% 47%
33%
LEB
AN
ON
KE
NYA
AR
GE
NT
INA
TU
RK
EY
FR
AN
CE
RU
SSIA
AR
ME
NIA
GE
RM
AN
Y
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
LEB
AN
ON
KE
NYA
AR
GE
NT
INA
TU
RK
EY
FR
AN
CE
RU
SSIA
AR
ME
NIA
GE
RM
AN
Y
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
54%
I feel like I always read/hear the same stories about the global refugee crisis
AGREE
54%AGREE
News coverage about the global refugee crisis is always about the same countries
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LONG TERM CRISES THAT HAVE RECIEVED A LOT OF MEDIA ATTENTION
ARE MOST WELL-KNOWN
Q33: How much do you know about the following humanitarian issues?
Especially in neighboring countries or countries directly affected
MOST WELL-KNOWN IN…
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
79% 73% 70% 61%Civil war in Syria Refugee crisis in Europe War in Afghanistan Internal violence in Iraq
Turkey97%
Germany93%
USA81%
Turkey86%
Lebanon94%
Turkey83%
Turkey81%
Lebanon70%
Russia87%
France83%
Iran80%
Iran70%
Iran85%
UK81%
UK77%
Kenya68%
2011 2015 2001 2014 (2003)
STARTDATE
24Q33: How much do you know about the following humanitarian issues?
W H I L E OT H E R C R I S E S A R E N OT W E L L K N O W N D E S P I T E H AV I N G A T R E M E N D O U S
I M PAC T O N H U M A N L I V E S
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
Percentage of people who have not heard and do not know anything about the following humanitarian issues
LEAST WELL-KNOWN IN…
40% 32% 25% 24%Persecution of the
Rohingya in MyanmarConflict and famine
in the D.R. CongoConflict and famine
in South SudanConflict and famine
in Yemen
Armenia72%
Armenia55%
Russia42%
Armenia43%
Russia63%
Iran49%
Armenia41%
Russia39%
Argentina62%
Lebanon43%
Argentina38%
Argentina37%
2017 2013 2013 2015
STARTDATE
25
T H E L E S S W E L L K N O W N C R I S E S
M YA N M A R“Over 6 4 7 , 0 0 0 refugees have fled to Bangladesh since 25 August 2017”
Source: UNHCR
D. R . C O N G O“Violence in DRC’s Kasaï region caused 1 MILLION IDPs and 35,000 refugees (2017/2018)”
Source: OCHA
S O U T H S U DA N“Projections for February-April 2018: 6.3 MLN people in “crisis,” “emergency” or “catastrophe”
Source: UN News
Y E M E N“With more than 17 MILLION – 2 in 3 people – not knowing where their next meal will come from, Yemen is the world’s largest humanitarian crisis’’
Source: AMNESTY International
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44%
31% 31% 30%27% 26% 25%
13% 12% 12% 11% 10%
Turkey France Argentina Germany Kenya USA UK Russia Lebanon Iran Armenia Japan
46%48%
38%34% 36% 34%
27%
33%
18% 17%
22%
28%
47% 47%45%
42% 40%38%
30% 30%
18%
13%
29%31%
Argentina Turkey Germany USA France UK Lebanon Russia Japan Iran Armenia Kenya
Q1: In your opinion, which of the following are the most pressing, global humanitarian challenges facing humanity right now?
C H I L D R E N A N D W O M E N H AV E B E C O M E H U M A N I TA R I A N C O L L AT E R A L DA M AG E
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
PROTECTION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN VIEWED AS LESS PRESSING ISSUES
Percentage of people who think the following are some of the most pressing
global humanitarian challenges
36%Protectionof children
24%Protectionof women
2017 2018
2018
27
31%51%
Total world population made up of children
Total refugee populationmade up of children
CHILDREN AT TREMENDOUS RISK IN THE GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS, BUT PEOPLE
DON’T RECOGNIZE THE FACTS
Q43: According to you, what do you think is the proportion of refugees who are: Children (boys and girls under the age of 18), Males, Female 300. 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844.
R E A L I T Y
P E RC E P T I O N
32% Children under the age of 18
PROPORTION OF REFUGEES
WHO ARE:68%Adults
(Men + Women)
Source: UNHCR Global Trends Report
According to the 2018 Humanitarian Index
28Q42: Below are some questions about the scale of the humanitarian challenges the world is faced with today. Please select the figures you think are correct: Globally, what proportion of displaced people are currently children?
8 IN 10 PEOPLE DO NOT KNOW WHAT PROPORTION OF DISPLACED PEOPLE
ARE CHILDREN
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
77%
of people don’t know or underestimate the proportion of children who
are displaced
29
H O W E V E R , C H I L D R E N ’ S P L I G H T I S A C ATA LY S T F O R AC T I O N
Q46: Which of the below would make you feel more responsible to act towards a humanitarian issue?
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
Knowing that it affects children would make people feel more responsible to act towards a humanitarian issue
69% 69%
60% 59% 59%
49% 48% 48% 47%43% 42%
31%
LEB
AN
ON
KEN
YA
AR
GEN
TIN
A
TUR
KEY
FRA
NC
E
RU
SSIA
AR
MEN
IA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
51%A G R E E
10
PUBLIC OPINION DIVIDED
ON WELCOMING REFUGEES
‘‘We need a new paradigm for humanitarian response that moves away from emergency aid and instead focuses on self-reliance and the conditions that make it possible. We must also expand legal pathways for safe migration to protect the lives of those in the most perilous situations. This will take imagination, ingenuity, and new partnerships.’’
Sasha ChanoffFounder and Executive Director
RefugePoint
KEY FINDING
30
31Q31: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?
R E F U G E E S D E S E R V E M O R E H E L P T H A N T H E Y A R E C U R R E N T LY G E T T I N G
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
78%71%
66%60%
55% 54% 52%47%
41%
33% 33%28%
LEB
AN
ON
KEN
YA
AR
GEN
TIN
A
TUR
KEY
FRA
NC
E
RU
SSIA
AR
MEN
IA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
48%A G R E E
We should be doing more in my country to help refugeesK
ENYA
LEB
AN
ON
AR
GEN
TIN
A
TUR
KEY
FRA
NC
E
RU
SSIA
AR
MEN
IA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
78%
68% 66%
50% 50% 49%45% 44%
41% 39%33%
29%
47%A G R E E
P E O P L E WA N T T H E I R C O U N T R I E S T O D O M O R E T O H E L P R E F U G E E S
31
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
Q31: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?
33Q31: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?2017 total respondents across 12 countries = 6,466. 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
W H I L E H A L F T H I N K T H AT T H E I R C O U N T R Y HAS ALREADY TAKEN TOO MANY REFUGEES.. .
My country has already taken on too many refugees
Lebanon 89% 91%
Germany 52% 60%
Iran 54% 63%
HIGHESTLebanon 91%
Turkey 82%
LOWESTJapan 9%Armenia 33%
HIGHESTArgentina 52%
Armenia 49%
LOWESTRussia 16%Germany 20%
UK Brexitcontext
USA
27% 38%
Trumpcontext 36% 44%
2017 2018
2017 2018
47%A G R E E
35%A G R E E
O N LY
. . . ONLY 35% FEEL BAD THAT THEIR COUNTRY HAS NOT DONE MORE
I feel bad that my country has not done more to help refugees
34
L O W E S TTurkey 16%Russia 12%
32% 54%
21% 38%
22% 42%
Russia 38% 49%
Lebanon 42% 53%
France 53% 43%
UK 55% 49%
49% 12%
45% 16%
30% 42%
46% 52%
Russia
Turkey
UK
USA
Russia
Turkey
Iran
H I G H E S TUSA 52% UK 42%
H I G H E S TTurkey 55% Lebanon 53%
L O W E S TArgentina 24% Armenia 21%
L O W E S TJapan 34%USA 32%
H I G H E S TRussia 54% Armenia 48%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Q31: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?2017 total respondents across 12 countries = 6,466. 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
THERE IS A RISE IN NATIONALISTIC SENTIMENT WITH PEOPLE THINKING REFUGEES POSE
A THREAT TO THEIR CULTURE
41%A G R E E
30%A G R E E
40%A G R E E
ONLY WHEREAS
My country is made a better place to live in by people from other countries coming to live here
These days, I am afraid that my country’s culture is threatened
by ethnic minorities
It is better for a country if almost everyone shares the same customs
and traditions
35Q41: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
OVERALL , PEOPLE DO NOT RECOGNIZE / KNOW THE TRUE VALUE THAT REFUGEES CAN BRING
TO THEIR COUNTRY AND THE ECONOMY
L O W E S TTurkey 23%Russia 24%
H I G H E S TTurkey 69%
Lebanon 82%
L O W E S TJapan 48%Armenia 37%
H I G H E S TArmenia 67%
Kenya 59%
L O W E S TKenya 19% Japan 21%
H I G H E S TRussia 81%
Lebanon 78%
39%A G R E E
40%A G R E E
60%A G R E E
ONLY AND
Refugees bring new entrepreneurial and economic
skills to the economy and society
People who come to live here generally take jobs away from
workers in my country
By arriving in my country refugees put an additional strain on the
welfare system
REALITY: This year FORBES highlighted the successes of immigrants on The FORBES 400, who have built some of the biggest American companies and are living testaments to the fact that the American dream is alive and well. More than 10% of the 400 came to the USA from 21 countries, including 6 from Israel, 5 from India, and 4 from both Hungary and Taiwan.
36
AS A RESULT, PEOPLE TEND TO THINK THAT MIGRANTS SHOULD NOT BE SETTLING
DOWN IN THEIR COUNTRIES BUT HELPED TO RETURN HOME INSTEAD
HIGHESTKenya 90%
Lebanon 90%
LOWESTJapan 69%USA 64%
UK Brexitcontext
37% 47%
2017 2018
L O W E S TLebanon 20%Turkey 19%
H I G H E S TUSA 61%
Kenya 51%
40%A G R E E
76%A G R E E
Legally established immigrants should be able to become citizens of my country easily
Refugees should be helped to return to their countries once conflicts are over
Q41: How much do the following statements describe how you feel about refugees and the global refugee crisis?2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
SORTING OUT THE ISSUE IS A JOINT
EFFORT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY
‘‘It is the lack of responsible leadership that is amplifying the public’s sense of crisis, because there are so many political leaders who use the language of crisis but don’t give a sense of manageability around the issue of refugee displacement. It is crucial that political leaders portray the manageability of refugee flows, rather than merely presenting it as a crisis. That is the message that we need to change.’’
Sara PantulianoManaging Director
Overseas Development Institute
KEY FINDING
37
38Q35: How capable do you think the following groups are to provide humanitarian aid for the global refugee crisis?
Q36: How responsible do you think the following groups are to provide funding to address the global refugee crisis? Q37: How much do you trust the following groups to provide the right level/type of humanitarian aid to help address the global refugee crisis?
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS SEEN AS BEST PLACED TO HELP ADDRESS THE GLOBAL
REFUGEE CRISIS
BUT, GOVERNMENTS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE FACED WITH A TRUST GAP WHEN
IT COMES TO GIVING THE RIGHT LEVEL
OF SUPPORT TO HELP ADDRESS THE CRISIS
Trusted to provide the right level/type of humanitarian aid to help address the global refugee crisis
Capable to provide humanitarian aid for the global refugee crisis
Responsible to provide funding to address the global refugee crisis
79%
78%
82%
65%
67%
70%
59%
60%
36%
66%
51%
42%
30%
83%
67%
78%
57%
64%
74%
61%
62%
34%
63%
51%
46%
59%
50%
48%
44%
41%
39%
35%
35%
33%
30%
28%
25%
23%
15%
Internationalcommunity
International not-for-profit
organizations
Developedcountries
Local/grassrootnot-for-profitorganizations
Countries to whichrefugees flee
Regionalorganization of
countries
My government
Faith-basedorganizations
Individual peoplelike me
Multinationalbusinesses/
corporations
The media
Developingcountries
Countries fromwhich refugees flee 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
39
R E P R E S E N TAT I V E S F RO M I N T E R N AT I O N A L ORGANIZATIONS ARE RE-GAINING GROUND WHEN IT COMES TO HAVING THE CAPABILITY
TO ADDRESS THE REFUGEE CRISIS
Q22: Which of the following leaders have the capabilities to do the most to address the refugee crisis?
Top 10 leaders who have capability to address the refugee crisis
14%
15%
15%
16%
18%
18%
22%
24%
30%
33%
Jean-Claude Juncker (EU)
Bashar al-Assad (Syria)
Theresa May (UK)
Pope Francis
Justin Trudeau (Canada)
François Hollande (France)
Antonio Guterres (UN General Secretary)
Donald Trump (USA)
Vladimir Putin (Russia)
Angela Merkel (Germany)
23%
25%
25%
30%
31%
31%
31%
35%
40%
46%
Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission)
Theresa May (UK)
Filippo Grandi (UN HighCommissioner for Refugees)
Emmanuel Macron (France)
Antonio Guterres (UNSecretary General)
Pope Francis
Vladimir Putin (Russia)
Donald Trump (USA)
Angela Merkel (Germany)
Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein (United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights)
2017 2018
2017 total respondents across 12 countries = 6,466. 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
40Q22: Which of the following leaders have the capabilities to do the most to address the refugee crisis?
THIS IS ALSO TRUE AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL WITH ANGELA MERKEL AND UN / EU REPRESENTATIVES
RANKING HIGH ACROSS COUNTRIES
Donald Trump(47%)
Donald Trump(40%)
Angela Merkel(45%)
Angela Merkel(53%)
Angela Merkel(46%)
Angela Merkel(44%)
Justin Trudeau(29%)
Angela Merkel(40%)
Emmanuel Macron (41%)
Donald Trump(43%)
Donald Trump(28%)
Antonio Guterres (41%)
Pope Francis(29%)
Theresa May(39%)
Filippo Grandi(28%)
Emmanuel Macron (40%)
Justin Trudeau(27%)
Federica Mogherini (37%)
USA UK France Germany Lebanon Iran
1st
2nd
3rd
Argentina Japan Kenya Armenia Russia Turkey
1st
2nd
3rd
Pope Francis(54%)
Angela Merkel(29%)
Donald Trump(55%)
Angela Merkel(65%)
Vladimir Putin(59%)
Recep Erdogan(59%)
Angela Merkel(47%)
Donald Trump(27%)
Filippo Grandi(52%)
Vladimir Putin(56%)
Angela Merkel(57%)
Donald Trump(48%)
Donald Trump(42%)
Antonio Guterres (25%)
Antonio Guterres (50%)
Donald Trump(55%)
Donald Trump(40%)
Angela Merkel(46%)
Country leader UN/EU/International
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
41
IN ADDITION TO MULTINATIONAL BUSINESSES, B U S I N E S S L E A D E R S A R E V I E W E D
A S K E Y P L AY E R S TO H E L P M A N AG E T H E G LO B A L R E F U G E E C R I S I S
Q35: How capable do you think the following groups are to provide humanitarian aid for the global refugee crisis? Q36. How responsible do you think the following groups are to provide funding to address the global refugee crisis?
Q38. Which of the following business leaders have the capabilities to do the most to address the refugee crisis?
Business leaders most capable of addressing the global refugee crisis
Bill GatesCo-Founder, Microsoft
41%Mark Zuckerberg
Co-Founder, Facebook
35%Tim Cook CEO, Apple
27%Sergey Brin
Co-Founder, Google
25%Jeff Bezos
Founder, Amazon
24%Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla and SpaceX
17%
66% 63%
Multinational businesses / corporations
Capable of providing humanitarian aid for the
global refugee crisis
Responsible to provide funding to address
the global refugee crisis
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
42Q22: Which of the following leaders have the capabilities to do the most to address the refugee crisis? Q38. Which of the following business leaders have the capabilities to do the most to address the refugee crisis?
BUSINESS LEADERS HAVE A CLEAR MANDATE TO ACT, SEEN AS EQUALLY CAPABLE OF
ADDRESSING THE REFUGEE CRISIS
Donald Trump(47%)
Donald Trump(40%)
Angela Merkel(45%)
Angela Merkel(53%)
Angela Merkel(46%)
Angela Merkel(44%)
Justin Trudeau
(29%)
Angela Merkel(40%)
Emmanuel Macron
(41%)
Donald Trump(43%)
Donald Trump(28%)
Antonio Guterres
(41%)
Pope Francis(54%)
Angela Merkel(29%)
Donald Trump(55%)
Angela Merkel(65%)
Vladimir Putin(59%)
Recep Erdogan
(59%)
Angela Merkel(47%)
Donald Trump(27%)
Filippo Grandi(52%)
Vladimir Putin(56%)
Angela Merkel(57%)
Donald Trump(48%)
USA UK France Germany Lebanon Iran Argentina Japan Kenya Armenia Russia Turkey
Bill Gates(46%)
Bill Gates(37%)
Bill Gates(34%)
Bill Gates(41%)
Bill Gates(35%)
Bill Gates(45%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(40%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(32%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(30%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(38%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(30%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(33%)
Bill Gates(54%)
Bill Gates(36%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(66%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(41%)
Bill Gates(33%)
Bill Gates(47%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(48%)
Mark Zuckerberg
(17%)
Bill Gates(62%)
Bill Gates(40%)
Mark
(24%)
Mark
(43%)
USA UK France Germany Lebanon Iran Argentina Japan Kenya Armenia Russia Turkey
Zuckerberg Zuckerberg
TOP 2 POLITICAL LEADERS
TOP 2 BUSINESS LEADERS
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
NGOS AS FACILITATORS
OF GLOBAL COOPERATION
‘‘The Aurora Humanitarian Index allows us to gain insights with regard to attitudes towards humanitarian issues around the world. One of the major strengths of this survey is to show the mismatch between perceptions and reality on a number of challenging topics.
Willingness to help, however, increases if people know it affects children, think they can make a difference and know it might one day happen to them. NGOs might wish to take these insights on board when doing advocacy work and developing fund raising campaigns.’’
Dirk JacobsFull Professor in Sociology
Université libre de Bruxelles
KEY FINDING
43
44Q40: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
P E O P L E R E C O G N I Z E T H E P O S I T I V E I M PAC T NGOS HAVE ON THE WORLD’S HUMANITARIAN
CHALLENGES
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
agree that many of the world’s humanitarian challenges would be worse if it were not for the efforts of NGOs
KEN
YA
LEB
AN
ON
AR
GEN
TIN
A
TUR
KEY
FRA
NC
E
RU
SSIA
AR
MEN
IA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
85%
72% 71% 70% 68% 68% 67%63% 62% 61%
56% 56%
65%
45
50%
48%
44%
41%
39%
35%
35%
33%
30%
28%
25%
23%
15%
International community
International not-for-profit organizations
Developed countries
Local/grassroot not-for-profit organizations
Countries to which refugees flee
Regional organization of countries
My government
Faith-based organizations
Individual people like me
Multinational businesses/ corporations
The media
Developing countries
Countries from which refugees flee
LEVEL OF TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS TO PROVIDE RIGHT LEVEL / TYPE OF
HUMANITARIAN AID TO HELP ADDRESS THE GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS
Q37: How much do you trust the following groups to provide the right level/type of humanitarian aid to help address the global refugee crisis? 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
46Q39: Who do you think is best placed to do the following? (Local/grassroot NGOs are more effective than international NGOs; local/grassroot NGOs are less effective than international NGOs; local/grassroot NGOs and international NGOs are as effective)
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=9908
I N T E R N AT I O N A L A N D LO C A L N G O S A R E R E C O G N I Z E D F O R T H E I R
K E Y S T R E N G T H S
15%
18%
21%
21%
21%
24%
28%
27%
36%
38%
40%
33%
39%
41%
36%
37%
43%
36%
39%
39%
40%
35%
52%
43%
38%
43%
42%
33%
36%
34%
25%
22%
25%
Influence the international community
Put into action long term solutionsto a refugee crisis
Raise funds to help address a refugee crisis
Get politicians to allow humanitarianaid across borders without opposition
Convince leaders to act independentlyfrom political interests
Raise awareness of a refugee crisis
Identify people/countries most in need
Make best use of funding to solvea refugee crisis
Make a real difference to thosewho need it most
Help people most in need
Take an active role on the groundfor refugees
Local / grassroot NGOs are less effective than international NGOs
Local / grassroot NGOs are more effective than international NGOs
Local / grassroot NGOs and international NGOs are as effective
LOCAL NGOs are more
effective at
International
NGOs are more
effective at
47Q40: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
PARTNERSHIPS ARE CRITICAL
agree that for NGOs to havea real impact, they need to cooperate with local people
on the ground
agree that that NGOs and governments should work together to avoid the forced migration crisis
from taking place
agree that international organizations (e.g. United Nations)
should empower local, on the ground humanitarian actions
agree that NGOs can make a real difference if they
receive the right support from governments
76% 74%
73% 71%
48
NGOS SHOULD BE INDEPENDENT AND ACCOUNTABLE
NGOs should be held accountable and
transparent about what they use funding for
NGOs need to work independently from
political interests
NGOs’ efforts are hampered by government bureaucracy
75% 73%
59%
Q40: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
PEOPLE FEEL COMPELLED
TO HELP AND WANT TO KNOW
HOW DONATIONS ARE BEING USED
‘‘Sometimes as a crisis peaks, you will see some action. But then, it’s very short term, and exhausted in two-three days or two-three weeks. These enthusiastic emotional responses just can’t be sustained; they need to be translated to long-term policies which a government reports to its citiznes; this never happens, frankly.’’
Alla Bakunts Democratic Governance Portfolio Analyst
United Nations Development Programme in Armenia
KEY FINDING
49
50Q27: Have you done any of those in the past? Have done it in the past 3 years.Q28: How likely are you to take the following actions to help manage or address the refugee crisis in the next 12 months?
P E O P L E F E E L M O R E C O M P E L L E D TO H E L P O U T– Y E A R O N Y E A R M O R E H AV E D O N AT E D O R A R E W I L L I N G TO D O N AT E I N F U T U R E
2017 total respondents across 12 countries = 6,466. 2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10,844
2017 2018
Have done at least once in the past 3 years Would do this
42%
49%
64%
77%
29%
36%
47%
64%
Donateregularly
Raise moneyor take part in
fundraising activity (e.g. sponsored run)
One-timedonation
Donating goods(e.g. clothes, food)
25%
23%
43%
51%
12%
13%
24%
35%
51Q28: How likely are you to take the following actions to help manage or address the refugee crisis in the next 12 months?
LIKELIHOOD TO DONATE BY COUNTRY
One-time donation 64% 69% 64% 48% 52% 73% 66% 67% 77% 65% 48% 72% 83%
Donate regularly 42% 48% 40% 30% 31% 51% 39% 51% 64% 34% 25% 45% 88%
Raise money or take part in fundraising activity (e.g.
sponsored run)49% 53% 43% 42% 29% 52% 53% 66% 70% 38% 38% 49% 91%
Support a charity on social media (e.g. follow,
comment, share)59% 59% 49% 50% 42% 67% 65% 77% 84% 59% 28% 70% 95%
Sign a petition 63% 65% 66% 61% 55% 45% 59% 74% 89% 60% 41% 64% 78%
Attend a protest, meeting or demonstration
31% 33% 27% 31% 25% 28% 37% 43% 45% 26% 9% 36% 37%
Donating goods (e.g. clothes, food)
77% 80% 77% 71% 70% 86% 74% 91% 94% 72% 51% 80% 95%
Offer accommodation or shelter for refugees
29% 30% 19% 23% 20% 45% 37% 49% 40% 14% 8% 42% 73%
Volunteer in areas affected by the refugee crisis
37% 38% 26% 32% 27% 49% 35% 56% 58% 27% 12% 40% 89%
Welcome refugees into your home
23% 27% 21% 17% 10% 24% 43% 42% 37% 10% 6% 23% 69%
LEB
AN
ON
KEN
YA
ARG
ENTI
NA
TURK
EY
FRA
NC
E
RUSS
IA
ARM
ENIA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
TOTA
L
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844, USA=1000, UK=1053, France=1000, Germany=1107, Lebanon=357, Iran=334, Armenia=1047, Argentina=1147, Russia=1290, Japan=1105, Turkey=1061, Kenya=343
52
PEOPLE’S WILLINGNESS TO HELP IS DRIVEN BY A DESIRE TO HELP POPULATIONS
MOST AT RISK AND M A K E A D I F F E R E N C E
WOULD FEEL MORE
RESPONSIBLE
…they knew it affects children
51%TO ACT TOWARDS A HUMANITARIAN
ISSUE
…they knew they could really make a difference
43%ISSUE IF…
…they knew it
could happen to them any day
(e.g. natural disaster)
40%
Q46: How likely are you to take the following actions to help manage or address the refugee crisis in the next 12 months?
2018 total respondents across 12 countries=10844
NGOs, with their knowledge of on-the-ground actions could be
the ones telling those stories
53Q45: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about donating time, money, clothes etc. to a humanitarian cause?Q46: How likely are you to take the following actions to help manage or address the refugee crisis in the next 12 months?
PRIOR TO DONATING, PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR INFORMATION
76% 82% 80% 79% 79% 78% 77% 77% 74% 73% 73% 70% 66%
63%76% 70% 69% 68% 67% 67% 67% 63% 62%
55% 51%43%
39%
53%48%
43% 42% 39% 39% 38% 37% 35% 34%29%
25%
LEBA
NO
N
KEN
YA
ARG
ENTI
NA
TURK
EY
FRA
NC
E
RUSS
IA
ARM
ENIA
GER
MA
NY
IRA
N
UK
USA
JAPA
N
TURK
EY
TURK
EYIR
AN
IRA
N
GER
MA
NY
GER
MA
NY
ARG
ENTI
NA
ARG
ENTI
NA
ARM
ENIA
ARM
ENIA
FRA
NC
E
FRA
NC
E
USA
USA
RUSS
IA
RUSS
IA
UK
UK
LEBA
NO
N
LEBA
NO
N
JAPA
N
JAPA
N
KEN
YA
KEN
YA
TOTA
LTO
TAL
TOTA
LI want to know how my donation is being used
I research how the charity will use my donation
Having reliable information about what is being done on the ground would make me more responsible to act towards a humanitarian issue
2 0 1 8 A U R O R A H U M A N I T A R I A N I N D E X
[email protected]@edelman.com
www.auroraprize.com
www.auroraprizemedia.com
A U R O R A P R I Z E . C O M
Gratitude in Action is the concept that drives the Aurora Humanitarian Initiative. The countless survivors around the world who owe their chance at life to the generosity of others can best acknowledge such benevolence by taking similar action. This is Gratitude in Action. The Aurora Humanitarian Initiative Co-Founders created Aurora as Gratitude in Action, and they want to inspire those who have received aid in a time of crisis to express gratitude by offering similar assistance to someone else. By involving Aurora supporters around the world, this will become a global endeavor that will snowball to expand the circle of saviors and most importantly – the number of those saved.