2017 Semi-Annual Trend Report - New Orleans...• Non-fatal shooting victims in Hot Spot...
Transcript of 2017 Semi-Annual Trend Report - New Orleans...• Non-fatal shooting victims in Hot Spot...
Murders and Shootings
2017 Semi-Annual Trend Report
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MurdersIn the 1st half of 2017
• There were 96 murders between
January and June 2017
• Murders increased 43% (+29)
over the 1st half of 2016
• 62% of murders occurred in 3
NOPD Districts: the 1st, 5th, and
7th (16, 22, and 22 murders,
respectively)
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Historical Murder TrendIn 2016, there were 174 murders; one more than the 2010-15 average (+5.8%)
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173174
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Murders in New Orleans: Historical Comparison
2010-15 Avg. 2016
Historical Murder Rate TrendIn 2016, the murder rate was 44.4 per 100,000, 2.5 fewer people per 100,000 compared to the 2010-15 average
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New Orleans Murder Rate: Historical Comparison
2010-15 Avg. 2016
MurdersYTD
• Murders are 43% higher than 1st
half 2016
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180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Murders Citywide (96)
2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017
Murdersin Hot Spots
• “Hot spot” neighborhoods
include Behrman, Central City,
Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.
Claude, St. Roch, and Treme
• Murders in Hot Spot
Neighborhoods account for
more than 30% of all murders in
New Orleans compared to 37%
in the first half of 2016
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90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Murders in Hot Spots (29)
2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017
Murdersby District
• The 2nd and 6th Districts
experienced a decline in murders
in 2017 compared to 2016
• The 1st District saw the highest
change over 2016 (+300%)
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1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Murders by District
2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017
MurdersRolling Average
• A rolling average smooths out
short-term fluctuations and
highlights longer-term trends
or cycles
• At the midpoint of 2017, there
was a six-month rolling
average of 16 murders per
month
• That was the highest rolling
average since October 2016
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'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Six Month Rolling Average (16.0)
Murders by Neighborhood
• The Seventh Ward and Mid
City both led all
neighborhoods in 1st half 2017
with 8 murders
• Four of the top seven
neightborhoods were Hot Spot
Neighborhoods (Seventh
Ward, St. Claude, Central City,
and St. Roch) with 23 murders
total
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Seventh Ward
Mid City
St. Claude
Plum Orchard
Viavant-Venetian Isles
Central City
St. Roch
Old Aurora
Gert Town
gentilly terrace
Dillard
Pines Village
Little Woods
Florida Area
Treme
Milan
Milneburg
St. Bernard
Desire Area
French Quarter
Top 20 Neighborhoods
Murders by Time of Day
• Consistent with the first two
quarters in 2016, the plurality
of murders occurred in the
evening
• With the exception of the 2nd
Quarter 2016, murders
consistently occurred less in
the morning than other times
of the day (about 13% of all
occurrences)
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2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 13% 8% 12% 13%
Afternoon 30% 22% 13% 21%
Evening 40% 40% 40% 43%
Overnight 17% 30% 35% 23%
2017 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 6% 13%
Afternoon 33% 27%
Evening 45% 42%
Overnight 16% 18%
Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am
Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm
Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm
Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am
Murders by Identified Motive
• There were 46 identified
motives in 2016 and 68 in
2017
• Murders motivated by
arguments and other
disturbances have increased
by more than 90% over the 1st
half of 2016
• Murders related to retaliations
and feuds have decreased by
44% compared to the 1st half
of 2016
• There has been an increase in
the total number of murders
related to drugs, robbery, and
other classifications
compared to midyear 2016
(+6, +3, and +4 respectively)
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Argument/Dist.
Domestic Dispute
Drug-Related
Retaliation-Feud
Robbery
Other
Murders by Identified Motive
2016 (46) 2017 (68)
Murder Clearances
• The mid-year 2017 clearance
rate was 53%
• The three year average
clearance rate at the mid-point
of each year was about 52%
• Murder clearance rate is
calculated by dividing the
number of murders cleared by
arrest, warrant, and exception
within a calendar year,
regardless of the year of
incident, by the total number
of murders that occurred
within that same calendar year
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2015
2016
2017
UCR Murder Clearance Rates by Year
Arrest Warrant Exception Unsolved
Murder Clearances by District
• Murder clearance rates vary by
NOPD Districts
• On average, about half of the
murders across Districts have
been cleared
• By midyear 2017, the 8th District
cleared 100% (2:2) of its
murders
• Murder clearance rates by
district examines murders
within the current year cleared
by arrest, warrant, and
exception
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25%
42%
25% 50%
40%
67%
44%
100%
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1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Murder Clearances by District
Cleared Open
Murder Suspectsby Race
• Over the past eight quarters,
at least 96% of arrested
murder suspects were
African-American
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017
Murder Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)
Black White Other
Murder Suspectsby Gender
• Over the past eight quarters,
about 1 out of 10 arrested
murder suspects were female
• All arrested murder suspects
in the 1st Quarter 2017 were
male
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017
Murder Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)
Male Female
ShootingsIn the 1st half of 2017
• There were 282 non-fatal
shooting victims between
January and June 2017
• Non-fatal shootings increased
32% over the 1st half of 2016
• There was a total of 364
shooting victims (fatal and non-
fatal) in the 1st half of the year,
an increase of 46% over the 1st
half of 2016
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Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsat Midyear
• There have been 56% more non-
fatal shooting victims in the 1st
half of 2017 compared to the 1st
half of 2016
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Non-Fatal Shooting Victims Citywide (282)
2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017
Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsin Hot Spots
• “Hot spot” neighborhoods
include Behrman, Central City,
Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.
Claude, St. Roch, and Treme
• Non-fatal shooting victims in Hot
Spot Neighborhoods accounted
for about 48% of all non-fatal
shooting victims in New Orleans
in the 1st half of 2017 compared
to 41% in the 1st half of 2016
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Non-Fatal Shooting Victims in Hot Spots (135)
2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017
Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsby District
• The 2nd and 8th Districts
experienced a decline in non-
fatal shooting victims in the 1st
half of 2017 compared to the
same period in 2016
• The 7th District experienced the
largest increase of +56 over 1st
half 2016 (about +233%)
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Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by District
2010-15 Avg. 2016 2017
Non-Fatal Shootings VictimsRolling Average
• A rolling average smooths out
short-term fluctuations and
highlights longer-term trends
or cycles
• At the midpoint of 2017, there
was a six-month rolling
average of 47 non-fatal
shooting victims per month
• The six-month rolling average
has been at its highest point
since September 2014 for the
last seven months
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Six Month Rolling Average (47)
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Neighborhood
• Little Woods led all
neighborhoods in 1st half of
2017 with non-fatal shooting
victims
• Five of the top six
neightborhoods were Hot Spot
Neighborhoods (Seventh
Ward, Central City, Little
Woods, St. Roch, and Treme)
with 139 non-fatal-shooting
victims
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Little Woods
Central City
Seventh Ward
St. Roch
Pines Village
St. Claude
Plum Orchard
Mid City
Tall Timbers-Brechtel
Treme
Behrman
Read Blvd. East
CBD
gentilly terrace
Dillard
Milneburg
Leonidas
Gert Town
West Lake Forest
Lower 9th Ward
Top 20 Neighborhoods
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Time of Day
• With the exception of the 1st
Quarter of 2016, the plurality
of non-fatal shooting victims
have been shot in the evening
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2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 16% 19% 16% 4%
Afternoon 35% 5% 5% 28%
Evening 32% 54% 53% 48%
Overnight 18% 22% 26% 20%
2017 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 8% 8%
Afternoon 22% 24%
Evening 55% 48%
Overnight 14% 20%
Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am
Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm
Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm
Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am
Non-Fatal Shooting Clearances by District
• Non-fatal shooting clearance
rates vary by NOPD District
• On average, about 1 out of 10
non-fatal shootings are
cleared across districts
• Zero non-fatal shootings were
cleared in the 8th District
• Non-fatal shooting clearance
rates by district examines
murders within the current
year cleared by arrest, warrant,
and exception
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14%13%
13%7%
15%
3%
18%
0%0
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30
40
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60
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80
90
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Non-Fatal Shooting Clearances by District
Cleared Open
NOTE: UCR clearance data for non-fatal shootings (aggravated assault) was
not available at the time of this report publishing.
NOTE: Identified motive data for non-fatal shootings was not available at the
time of this report publishing due to changes to their identification
methodology and inconsistency of data reported.
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspectsby Race
• Over the past eight quarters,
almost 90% of arrested non-
fatal shooting suspects were
African-American
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)
Black White Other
Non-Fatal shooting Suspectsby Gender
• Over the past eight quarters,
female non-fatal shooting
suspects only accounted for
about 6% of the total suspects
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)
Male Female
Contact InformationFor Additional Questions and Comments
For further information about future activities and reports, please contact:
Sarah Schirmer
Criminal Justice Policy Advisor
Office of Criminal Justice Coordination
Office of Mayor Mitch Landrieu
1300 Perdido St.
Suite 8W03
New Orleans, LA 70112
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