2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
-
Upload
dun-bradstreet -
Category
Business
-
view
855 -
download
3
Transcript of 2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Economic Outlook 2017 and
BeyondMaking Sense of the New World
Order Country Insight Services
November 2016
2
Country Insight Services
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Economic downturns, political upheaval, and natural disasters can all have an impact on global trade. Unrest can result in overnight barriers to imports, added taxes to exports, piracy activity in key shipping lanes, and other substantial obstacles to global business. D&B Country Insight provides comprehensive analysis on over 130 individual countries that account for more than 95% of the global GDP, helping you understand:
Political Risk: How stable is the country’s government? Economic Risk: Is the economy expanding or contracting? External Risk: Is the currency stable or unstable? Commercial Risk: Will I get paid and how quickly? Trade Environment: Have import regulations changed?
Contact the teamD&B Country Insight Services For information relating to D&B’s Country Insight Services.UK EnquiryTelephone: 01628 492700 Fax: 01628 492929 Email: [email protected]
International EnquiryUSATelephone: 1-800 234-3867 Option 1, 1, and then 2Reps are available M-F 8am-6pm eastern timeRest of WorldTelephone: +44 1628 492700
Western Europe
AgendaNorth America
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
The Top Five Economic Game Changers
Short-Term Economic Outlook (G20)
Introduction: A Global View of Risks
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Introduction: A Global View of Risks
5Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
An Unprecedented Recession, Hence Global Risks Remain Elevated Seven Years After It Ended …
CIPS Global Risk Index (CIPS GRI) – powered by Dun & Bradstreet (100=Most Risk)
Source: Dun & Bradstreet1510050095908580
6
4
2
0
-2
6
4
2
0
-2
World: Gross Domestic Product, Constant PricesAnn % Chng [Mkt Exch Rates]
Source: International Monetary Fund /Haver AnalyticsQ3 1994
Q3 1995
Q3 1996
Q3 1997
Q3 1998
Q3 1999
Q3 2000
Q3 2001
Q3 2002
Q3 2003
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2006
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
Q3 2015
Q3 20160
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
North AmericaLatin AmericaAsia PacificEastern Europe and Central AsiaWestern & Central EuropeMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
6
In Fact Risk Has Increased Globally, As Measured by the D&B Country Risk Score
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
July 2009 Oct 2016
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
7
D&B’s Top Risks Facing the Global Economy …
Region Risk Likelihood (%)
Global Impact (1-5)
Global Business Impact
Score (1-100)
North America
Global uncertainty among policy-makers, businesses and households over the lack of detail in President-elect Trump's policies curtails business activity in the US as well as global cross-border trade and investment prospects
70 3 42
Western Europe
Hard Brexit will lead to the disruption of supply chains in Europe
65 3 39
Asia-Pacific
In China, default contagion from bad debts in industry and local government triggers state rescues for mid-tier banks
50 3 30
Pan-regional
Rapidly growing cyber-dependence and connectivity lead to increasingly frequent and more damaging cyber attacks, with global ramifications
70 2 28
North America
Congress has little appetite for trade deals, while new President keeps election promise. TPP and TTIP are scrapped and NAFTA is renegotiated
70 2 28
Pan-regional
Deal between the EU and Turkey eventually collapses, thereby leading to a renewed migrant crisis in Western Europe
45 3 27
The latest Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Impact score highlights a further worsening of risks for businesses across the world. The nature of risk is continues to change, with four new entries among our top ten risks led by the pervasive political uncertainty in the US and the UK.
Global Business Impact Score
Q3 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
200
225
250
275
300
274
226
265
283
272
250
254 260
231 230
235
243
281
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
8
… Drive Our Forecast for Slow, Middling Growth
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Real GDP Growth (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
Advanced economies 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
US 2.4 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9
Euroland 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
Japan 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
UK 3.1 2.2 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7
Emerging economies 4.2 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3
Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
India 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.2
China 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1
Short-Term Economic Outlook
10
Short-Term Economic Outlook
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Short-term Economic OutlookLong-term Economic Potential
Market Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business Regulatory Environment
Business Continuity
Political/Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/ Nationalisation Risk
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
11Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Short-Term Economic Outlook (January 2012)Short-term Economic Outlook
Long-term Economic Potential
Market Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business Regulatory Environment
Business Continuity
Political/Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/ Nationalisation Risk
12Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Short-Term Economic Outlook (January 2014)Short-term Economic Outlook
Long-term Economic Potential
Market Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business Regulatory Environment
Business Continuity
Political/Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/ Nationalisation Risk
13Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Short-Term Economic Outlook (January 2016)Short-term Economic Outlook
Long-term Economic Potential
Market Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business Regulatory Environment
Business Continuity
Political/Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/ Nationalisation Risk
14Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Short-Term Economic Outlook (October 2016)Short-term Economic Outlook
Long-term Economic Potential
Market Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business Regulatory Environment
Business Continuity
Political/Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/ Nationalisation Risk
Western Europe
Brexit
17Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Economic Baseline Figures
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Real GDP (Forecast)Real GDP (Actual)
Source: Office for National Statistics, Dun & Bradstreet
Perc
ent
• Some metrics of economic performance that the fundamentals of the economy are solid: for example, domestic output expanded by 0.5% quarter on quarter in Q3.
• Inflation is also gradually picking up on account of a cheaper pound (albeit remaining well below the Bank of England’s medium-term target of 2%).
18Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Key Economic Indicators • Retail trade growth accelerated
over the quarter.
• Markit/CIPS’s UK Construction PMI tallies with the suggested strengthening of momentum in the sector.
• Overall, forward-looking indicators also bode well for future economic activity, with Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rising to its highest level since mid-2014.
19Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Business Failures
Dun & Bradstreet data for Q3 show a drop in the amount of corporate insolvencies: some 14% lower than the preceding quarter, possibly tracking the resilience of the economy, which expanded more than previously anticipated in the three months to September.
20Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Prompt Payment Snapshot
Despite stronger-than expected real GDP growth in Q3, a weaker pound, and robust retail sales, Dun & Bradstreet’s data reveals that the proportions of prompt payments decreased slightly over the quarter.
21Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Despite the current economic bonanza, Dun & Bradstreet predicts that Brexit’s medium- to long-term economic impact on the UK will be significant and negative.
We have downgraded the country’s risk rating from DB2c to DB2d (still just within the ‘low risk’ category). We are also maintaining our ‘deteriorating’ rating outlook.
Prime Minister Theresa May’s government intended line of action likely to make it increasingly unlikely that the UK will retain access to the EU’s common market once Brexit is eventually completed.
The possible loss of the passporting rights that currently allow UK-based banks to operate across the EU is a major source of concern.
o Brexit could take a heavy toll on the UK’s financial sector: up to 70,000 finance industry jobs could be lost if Britain leaves the EU, according to the industry body TheCityUK.
Several other UK-listed companies, are being affected by a weaker pound.
22Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
The Baseline Scenario
• Parliament will approve Article 50 invocation• PM invokes Article 50 in Q1 2017• EU membership ends Q1 2019• However: transition deal required post Q1 2019• Hence: EU laws likely to remain in force until early 2020s• After that: Free Trade Agreement
The E.U.
24Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
The economic outlook is improving:
There is reason to believe that the economy is switching into a slightly higher gear in the final months of the year;
Inflation rates remain low, albeit rising, real wage growth is still robust, and the labour market also continues to provide good news…
… However, political risk is rising:
Upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017, in addition to Brexit.
Weak minority government in Spain in October 2016 and the prospect of government collapse over the outcome of a referendum in November in Italy.
The outcome of US presidential elections could bolster consensus for anti-EU parties.
North America
26Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
North America Also Stuck In the New Mediocre
2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
US 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0
Canada 2.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q4-2013
Q1-2014
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
GDP, topline Consumption
New Government’s Policies Will Aim to Add More Drivers of Growth
27Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
… But Long Term Metrics Also Important
19401944
19481952
19561960
19641968
19721976
19801984
19881992
19962000
20042008
20122016
20202024
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Federal Debt Held by the Public, % of GDP
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
20142017
20202023
2026-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Total Deficit/Surplus, % of GDP
Average Deficit, 1966 to 2015=2.8%
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Dun & Bradstreet
28Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Canada: Some Domestic Clarity…
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Canada: Government Debt as Percentage of GDP (%)U.S.: General Government Debt Outstanding as a % of GDP (%)U.K.: General Government Outstanding Debt as a % of GDP (%)Italy: General Government Debt Outstanding as a % of GDP (%)Australia: General Government Outstanding Debt as a Percentage of GDP (%)Japan: General Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP (%)France: General Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP(%)
Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Office of National Statistics , Banca d’Italia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Banque de France
Germany
U.S.
EA 19
France
U.K.
Canada
Australia
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
89.5%
100.1%
103.8%
105.9%
133.4%
159.9%
193.7%
Household Outstanding Debt to Gross Disposable Income (Q2 2016)
Source: Statistical Offices of the European Communities, Federal Reserve Board, Statistics Canada, Australia Bureau of Statistics
29Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
…but International Uncertainty Reigns• An impasse regarding the implementation of the Canada and European Union Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) has been resolved.
• Despite the compromise, the treaty still requires ratification
by all national and regional parliaments of EU member nations.
• High levels of doubt surround the longevity of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
• Enactment of Article 2205 remains in the realm of possibility.
• Official withdrawal only six-months after notice is given.
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
31Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Key Issues
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
f
2017
f
2018
f
2019
f
2020
f
2021
f
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Regional growth is strongly correlated with oil prices…
GDP growth y/y Oil price growth y/yGDP growth y/y (Forecast) Oil price growth y/y (Forecast)
Source: Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Structural impediments continue to hamper the region's business environment…
Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2015, Dun & Bradstreet
Regional ranking
Infrastructure Quality 71 [out of 138]Property Rights 84 [out of 138]Business Impact of Rules on FDI 85 [out of 138]Corruption 91 [out of 168]
32Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Risks & Opportunities
Risks
FX Risk: Brexit and Trump-related uncertainties continue to weigh on emerging market assets and currencies throughout 2017
High probability
Business Regulatory Environment: Deteriorating government finances (due to lower-for longer oil prices) lead to hikes in business taxes and reductions in financial incentives for foreign investors
Moderate probability
Political/Insecurity Risk: Escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West prompt a direct conflict
Low probability
Opportunities
Market Potential: Brexit and Trump presidency could mean Western sanctions on Russia eased in 2017 - opening up opportunities for exporters and investors in the energy, defence and financial sectors
Moderate probability
Market Potential: Lower-for-longer oil prices drives economic diversification and funnels government investment into nascent sectors with promising long-term potential, e.g. agriculture and renewable energy
High probability
Long-Term Economic Potential: Lower-for-longer oil prices prompts governments to undertake significant structural reforms
Low probability
Latin America
34Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Latin America – Subdued Outlook
Sources: Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Drivers Risks
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0Latin America & Caribbean World
Real
GDP
Gro
wth
(%)
Gradual recovery in commodity pricesHigher capital inflowsFirmer external demandLooser domestic monetary policy Pro-business reforms
- Disappointing recovery in key trade partners- Protracted weakness in export prices- Austerity backlash = hiked political risks- Tighter global liquidity (US Fed Funds Rate)- New uncertainties: Brexit; radical US trade policy
shifts
35Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Key RecommendationsAssess the impact of potential changes in US trade and immigration
policies on exports of agriculture (South America) and manufactured goods (Mexico) as well as remittance inflows (Mexico, Central America).
Follow Brexit-related developments vis-à-vis changes to UK and EU market access. Watch for new bilateral trade deals in the wake of Brexit but expect delays in finalization of agreements.
Monitor leading currencies' volatility against the dollar. Hedge foreign exchange risks, where possible.
Ensure compliance with anti-corruption laws to minimize reputational risk.
Expect ongoing challenges with bureaucracy, inadequate infrastructure and corruption.
Asia-Pacific
37
Ireland 2010
Indonesia 1998
Spain 2007
Thailand 1997
Argentina 2002
China 2016
Malaysia 1997
Japan 1990
UK 1990
Greece 2007
Portugal 2009
South Korea 1997
US 2007
88
57
44
36
33
30
28
24
24
22
21
14
12
Credit to GDP ‘gap’ % GDP greater riskSources: BIS, Dun &
Bradstreet
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Financial Cycle: China &Asia-Pacific
greate
r risk
of finan
cial
secto
r dist
ress,
recessi
on or cris
is
38Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Demographic Divergence Across Asia
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
ChinaWorking Age Total PopulationLabor Force
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.51.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
JapanWorking Age Total PopulationLabor Force
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
IndiaWorking Age Total Population
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5
East AsiaWorking Age Total Population
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Southeast AsiaWorking Age Total Population
Source: UN, National Statistical Agencies
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
ThailandWorking Age Total PopulationLabor Force
Middle East and North Africa
40
Three Layers Undermine the Regional Outlook
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Oil PricesInsecurity
Structural Issues
41Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
108.9
98.9
52.4
43.150.2
63.068.0
79.085.0
Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
USD/
bbl.
Average Annual Oil Prices
42
Insecurity: MENA’s Security Risks Late 2010
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
43
Insecurity: MENA’s Security Risks Late 2016
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
44
Structural Issues
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Source: World Economic Forum, World Bank, Transparency International, Dun & Bradstreet
The Top Five Economic Game Changers
1. Blockchain Technology
47Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
What is Blockchain?
Blockchain or ‘distributed ledger technology’ is a way of electronically storing information that is or can be:
a) Immutable (the parties involved cannot change information that has been
stored previously)
b) Allows real time clearing (if the information tracks the movement of a real-
world unit, that unit’s whereabouts and status will be recorded in real time)
c) Universally accessible and transparent
d) Protection is enabled by cryptography rather than a centralised authority Some of this is (still) somewhat idealistic as the technology is not impervious to being hacked (Mt Gox/Ethereum thefts)
48Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
What are the Possible Applications? Trade finance Banking Mining Credit ratingsStock exchange platforms Fraud detection Healthcare Utilities Real estate Intellectual propertyand many more
49Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Where are We Now? Development of international standards underway
Recent Blockchain trade finance milestone
Australian Stock Exchange
Surveys on expected time of adoption show that a majority of banks expect to use a blockchain-based technology by 2019.
Industries that are not heavily regulated have a smoother path to adoption – e.g. diamonds industry.
50Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Stumbling Blocks
General: vulnerable to rumours/scandals; resistance from stakeholders who risk
becoming superfluous; needing to replace existing processes
and platforms.
Particular to blockchain:Security;Privacy;Cooperation;Data bloat.
Images are open source
2. Decarbonization
52Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Renewable Growth Capacity has Exploded Over the Prior 15 years
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Cumulative installed geothermal power capacity Cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) power Cumulative installed wind turbine capacity
Source: BP, Dun & Bradstreet
Meg
awatt
s
53Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
But the Current Share Remains Low
Renewable: (6.9%)
Carbon producing: (86.8%)
Nuclear: (6.2%)
Renewable: (6.8%)
Carbon producing: (87.5%)
Nuclear: (5.7%)
Renewable: (7.8%)
Carbon producing: (87.0%)
Nuclear: (5.1%)Renewable: (9.6%)
Carbon producing:(86.0%)
Nuclear: (4.4%)
54Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Where Is Progress Being Made?
Source: BP, United Nations, Dun & Bradstreet
55Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Tonnes Carbon Dioxide per Person
Top 21 countries by nominal size of GDP (USD)
0
5
10
15
20
25
19.8
17.0 16.7
14.8
12.9 12.4
10.39.5 9.3
6.8 6.7 6.3 5.74.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.7
2.4 2.31.7
2015-Tonnes Carbon Dioxide per Person
Source: BP, United Nations, Dun & Bradstreet
3. Cyber Security
57Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
National strategy
Incident response
E-crime & law enforcement
Information sharing
R&D Investment
Diplomacy & trade
Defense & crisis response
Source: Lloyd’s City Risk Index (http://www.lloyds.com/cityriskindex/threats/cyber_attack)
Source: Melissa Hathaway, Chris Demchak, Jason Kerben, Jennifer McArdle, and Francesca Spidalieri (www.potomacinstitute.org/academic-centers/cyber-readiness-index)
Internet/Cybersecurity Risks
Unknown or zero readiness
Partialreadiness
Fullreadiness
4. Deglobalization
59Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Strengthening of Shift Towards Less Free Trade
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015
mid-Oct
14 to m
id-May
15
mid-May
15 to m
id-Oct
15
mid-Oct
15 to m
id-May
1610
12
14
16
18
20
22
19
14
18
17
18 18 18
17 17
21
G20 Trade-Restrictive Measures on the Rise (average per month)
Sources: WTO, Dun & Bradstreet
5. Negative Interest Rates
61Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Negative Interest Rates Are A Part of the New Normal
201201
201203
201205
201207
201209
201211
201301
201303
201305
201307
201309
201311
201401
201403
201405
201407
201409
201411
201501
201503
201505
201507
201509
201511
201601
201603
201605
201607
201609-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Policy Rates, %
ECB Denmark Sweden Switzerland Japan
Sources: Central Banks, Dun & Bradstreet
62Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Q A
63
Connect with the team
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
D&B’s Country Insight team includes seasoned economists who compile and analyze country-specific insights from all major sources: finance ministries, central banks, local chambers of commerce, embassies, trade organizations, and other economic data sources such as the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Development, and EU.
Michelle Campbell Latin America [email protected]
Jas Sehmi Eastern Europe & Central Asia [email protected]
Warwick Knowles Middle East & North Africa [email protected]
Isaac Leung Asia Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa [email protected]
Oana Aristide Asia Pacific, Nordic Region [email protected]
Adam Morehouse Asia Pacific, North America [email protected]
Bodhi Ganguli North America, Sub-Saharan Africa [email protected]
Nalanda Matia North America [email protected]
Daniele Fraietta Western Europe [email protected]
Markus Kuger Western Europe [email protected]
Ben Kleber Western Europe [email protected]
64Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Dun & Bradstreet will continue to keep an eye on the health of the global economy to bring you our views and perspectives.
Follow us on Twitter for Dun & Bradstreet’s up-to-the-minute information and analysis @DnBUS
Click for more information on Country Insight Services
Thank You