2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND ......2016/02/22 · D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13...
Transcript of 2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND ......2016/02/22 · D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13...
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Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters
February 22, 2016
2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE,
OVERCROWDING, AND CAPITAL PLAN
DISTRICT 30 AND CITYWIDE
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School Utilization Rates and Class Sizes
at critical levels • Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years.
More than 556,000 students citywide (53% of NYC’s student population) are in overcrowded buildings.
• Elementary schools city wide average building utilization rate is 103.5%
• Large classes continue to increase, with number of K-3 students in
classes of 30 or more doubling in the past five years
• More than 350,000 NYC school kids are in classes of 30 or more
• Class size averages have increased sharply citywide and in D30 since 2007, far above Contracts for Excellence goals of no more than 20 pupils in grades K-3, 23 in grades 4-8, and 25 in grades 9-12.
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103.5%
84.0%
95.3%
107.0%
85.0% 92.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Elementary School City Wide Middle School City Wide High School City Wide
Citywide School Utilization Averages Over 556,000 NYC Students are in overcrowded classes and about 53%
are in overcrowded buildings Mean
Median
*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools
Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
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24,417
35,137
45,242 45,442 48,440
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Trend of K-3 Students in classes of 30 or more The number has nearly doubled in the past five years
Data Source: DOE Citywide Class Size Distribution data, 2011-15
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Class sizes in D30 have increased in grades K-3
by 16.9% since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
21
20.7 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
21 20.9 21.4
22.1
22.9
23.9 24.5
24.9 24.7 24.6
21.8 21.3 21.9
22.4 23.2
24.4 25
25.9 25.1 24.9
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Ave
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D30 K-3 class sizes over time, way above C4E goals
C4E goals
citywide actual
D30
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D30’s class sizes in grades 4-8 have increased by 3.9%
since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
25.6
24.8 24.6
23.8 23.3
22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9
25.6 25.1 25.3 25.8
26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7
26.0 25.7
26.0 26.6
27.2 27.6 27.4 27.6
26.8 26.7
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Ave
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tud
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D30 4-8 class sizes, way above C4E goals
C4E target
citywide actual
D30
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26.1 26.2
26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3
26.7 26.8 26.7
26
25.7
25.2
24.8
24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
27
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Citywide HS class size trend compared to C4E goals
Citywide Actual
C4E Target
*DOE’s methodology for calculating HS averages has changed year to year
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
Class sizes citywide have increased in High School
since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals
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Examples of schools in D30 with large class sizes, K-3 in 2015-16
29 28
27 27 27 26 26 26
25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
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31 31 31 31 31 31 31
30 30 30
29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34
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D30 Second Grade
32 31 31 31 31
30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29
28 28 28 28
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
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D30 First Grade
32 32 32 32 32 32 32
31 31 31 31 31 31 31
30 30
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
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D30 Third Grade
Data sources: DOE Class Size Report Fall 2015
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Proposed new capital plan vs. needs for seats • New proposed capital plan has about 49,000 K12 seats (compared to 33,000 in
May plan) – at an additional total cost of nearly $1 billion.
• DOE now admits real need of approximately 83,000 seats (compared to DOE
estimate in May of 49,245).
• Thus DOE is only funding 59% of need for seats according to its own projected
need.
• Many of those seats remain unsited even as to borough and district.
• CSM estimates real need is over 100,000 seats, based on enrollment
projections and existing overcrowding – with about 40,000 seats needed in
districts with utilization averages over 100%, plus 60K-70K more for projected
enrollment growth.
• DOE should fund at least their own estimated need of 83,000 seats at an
additional cost of $130 million per year in city funds.
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Over-utilization in ES and MS buildings in
District 30, and Queens HS
• D30’s Elementary School building utilization average is 112.3%,–much higher than the citywide utilization average of 103.5%
• D30’s High School building utilization average is 109.1%,- much higher than the citywide utilization average of 95.3%.
• 25 ES and MS school buildings in CSD 30 are over-utilized. About 4,048 seats are needed for these buildings to reach 100% utilization.
• In Queens, 26 high school buildings are at or over 100% building utilization - with 13,295 additional seats needed.
*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools
Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
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Average Utilization Rates in D30 compared to City-Wide 2014-15,
1,756 seats needed to bring D30 average utilization to 100%
*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity
Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
112.3%
103.5%
87.2% 84.0%
109.1%
95.3%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
D30 ElementarySchool
City WideElementary
School
D30 MiddleSchool
City WideMiddle School
D30 High School City Wide HighSchool
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25 ES and MS Buildings in D30 are over-utilized about 4,048 seats needed to reduce all over utilized buildings to 100% -
but only 4,536 in cap plan - does not account for projected new enrollment
*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools
Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
221%
192%
155% 148% 136% 133% 129% 126% 126% 125% 125% 123% 123% 121% 120% 113% 112% 110% 110% 110%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
20 examples of D30’s over crowded school buildings, there are 25 in total
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26 Queens HS buildings are over-utilized About *13,295 new seats needed to bring these school buildings to 100% but only 2,802 seats funded in cap plan
*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools
Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
D30 School
Buildings in gold
140% 151%
107%
155%
120% 130%
139% 156%
104%
132%
160% 147%
197%
105% 108% 105% 117%
193%
123% 115% 121% 121%
104%
129%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
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3,190
692 456 456
0
3,016
640 912
2,593
991
3,840
1,000
4,869
912
456
4,869
2,221
924 972
1,920
4,536
1,736
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31
Total Funded K-8 Seats In January 2016 Capital Plan by District 4,536 seats in D30
Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016
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Number of seats added in the January Capital Plan 2,624 seats were added in D30
Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016
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4,536
5,975 5,825
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
ES and MS New Seats fromJanuary 2016 Capital Plan
DOE Identified Need fromJanuary 2016 Capital Plan
Class Size Matters EstimatedTotal Need*
District 30, Grades K-8
District 30 includes sub-district Astoria/Steinway, which has some seats funded for design but
not construction. The neighborhood Long Island City is being rezoned to increase residential
development.
*Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need derived from seats needed to bring district average down to 100% utilization plus
Estimated Enrollment based on Housing Starts 2012-2021 and the average of consultant projections (Grier Partnership 2011-2021
and Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021.) Additional data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016, Blue Book 2014-2015.
New Capital Plan Seats and DOE Seat Need
vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need
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Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016
99% 100%
44% 44%
0%
53%
26%
61%
76%
63%
51%
100%
47%
37% 35%
52%
43% 37%
56% 53%
76%
52%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31
Funded Seats in Jan. 2016 Capital Plan compared to DOE's Identified Need by District (K-8 Only) –
76% of D30’s seat need is funded
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*Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need derived from seats needed to bring district average down to 100% utilization plus
Estimated Enrollment based on Housing Starts 2012-2021 and the average of consultant projections (Grier Partnership 2011-2021
and Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021.) Additional data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016, Blue Book 2014-2015.
2,802
6,880
24,488
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
HS New Seatsfrom January 2016
Capital Plan
DOE IdentifiedNeed from
January 2016Capital Plan
Class Size MattersEstimated Total
Need*
New Capital Plan and DOE Seat Need vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need for Queens High
Schools
Queens High Schools and the Capital Plan
12%
41%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Queen High School % ofSeats Funded comparedto CSM's Estimated Need
Queen High School % ofSeats Funded comparedto DOE's Estimated Need
Queens HS funded seats compared to estimations of DOE and CSM
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46%
100%
0%
33%
0%
9%
0% 0%
28%
0% 7%
0% 7%
19%
0%
31%
12% 19%
35%
23%
8% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
D2
D3
D7
D8
D9
D1
0
D1
1
D1
2
D1
3
D1
4
D1
5
D1
9
D2
0
D2
1
D2
2
D2
4
D2
5
D2
6
D2
7
D2
8
D3
0
D3
1
K-8 Seats in Scope/Design versus DOE Identified Need by District
*Scope/Design means that the seats are in the process of getting sited and constructed, as opposed to only being budgeted for
Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016
Percent of Seats in Scope/Design* compared to DOE Identified Need Only 15% of DOE’s Identified need are in Scope and Design
Only 8% of ES and MS seats in D30 and 7% of HS seats in Queens
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Problems with DOE & SCA capacity to site and build
schools
• Only 8% of D 30 seats needed are sited & in scope & design; only 7% Queens HS.
• After 2 years DOE still has not determined in which borough or district most of
4900 seats in “class size reduction” category will built.
• Several overcrowded neighborhoods have had schools funded in the capital plan
for over a decade without DOE siting or building a single school
• SCA/DOE has real capacity problems in terms of efficient and accurate school
siting and planning
• Overcrowding will grow worse if Mayor’s rezoning plan to accelerate
residential development is adopted
• NYC needs to come up with a better process to ensure schools are built along
with new housing – instead of always playing catch up
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NYC Council should create a Commission to improve
efficiency and accuracy of school planning and siting
• Among issues Commission could consider: do we need reforms to
the zoning and/or ULURP process?
• Should the formula used to estimate impact of new housing on
schools should be updated?
• Should enrollment projections be improved and carried out on a
more regular basis?
• Should NYC require impact fees from developers and/or use
eminent domain to site schools more frequently?
• Without reforms to the planning process, overcrowding is likely to
worsen, with school construction lagging years behind other
development
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How you can help • Sign our petition at www.classsizematters.org urging
Mayor & City Council to expand the capital plan & form a
Commission to improve school planning
• Pass a resolution about need for same
• Come to the capital plan hearings at City Hall on Tuesday
March 8, at 1 PM to testify about overcrowding in your
district; public testimony starts at 3 PM.
• Sign up for our newsletter for updates on this and other
issues.