2016 China Apple Crop Outlookusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Thr-410-Choi.pdfZHONGLU AMERICA...

SDIC ZHONGLU FRUIT JUICE CO.ZHONGLU AMERICA CORP.

2016 China Apple Crop

Outlook

China 2015 Apple Crop (Official)

10,370, 24%

9,580, 22%

5,000, 12%

4,310, 10%

3,670, 9%

3,280, 8%

2,480, 6%

3,923, 9%

China Total: 42,613

Shaanxi

Shandong

Henan

Shanxi

Hebei

Gansu

Liaoning

Others

Forecast in Aug 2015:

43,112

(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China Ministry of Agriculture

Michael Choi - Zhonglu

China 5-Year Apple Production

by Province

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ’15:‘145-Year

Average‘15: 5-yr Average

Shaanxi 9,029 9,651 9,428 9,880 10,370 5.0% 9,672 7.2%

Shandong 8,379 8,710 9,305 9,297 9,580 3.0% 9,054 5.8%

Henan 4,203 4,367 4,431 4,417 5,000 13.2% 4,484 11.5%

Shanxi 3,339 3,752 3,962 4,173 4,310 3.3% 3,907 10.3%

Hebei 2,926 3,115 3,201 3,457 3,670 6.2% 3,274 12.1%

Gansu 2,276 2,488 2,696 2,971 3,280 10.4% 2,742 19.6%

Liaoning 2,397 2,634 2,752 2,476 2,480 0.2% 2,548 -2.7%

Others 3,436 3,774 3,908 4,252 3,923 -7.7% 3,859 1.7%

All China 35,985 38,491 39,683 40,923 42,613 4.1% 39,539 7.8%



China Apple Production Trend


2001~2015 CAGR: 5.5%2003~2015 Average Increase: 1.8 MM/year


35,985

38,491

39,683

40,923

42,613

2,177

2,231

2,272

2,307

2,328

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Apple Production (1,000 MT) Acreage (1,000 Ha)

China 5-Year Apple Production,

Area Planted

18.4% Increase CAGR: 4.32%

6.9% IncreaseCAGR: 1.69%


5-Year Apple Acreage, Yield

in Selected Provinces

China Shandong Shaanxi Shanxi

Acreage Yield Acreage Yield Acreage Yield Acreage Yield

2011 2,177 16.5 276 30.3 623 14.5 145 23.1

2012 2,231 17.3 280 31.2 645 15.0 151 24.9

2013 2,272 17.5 303 30.1 665 14.2 154 25.7

2014 2,307 17.7 305 30.5 682 14.5 159 26.3

2015 2,328 18.3 300 31.9 695 14.9 156 27.6

CAGR 1.69% 2.62% 2.11% 1.29% 2.77% 0.68% 1.84% 4.55%

(Acreage Unit: 1,000 Ha, Yield: MT/Ha) Source: China MOA


5-year Apple Production by Variety

24,438 26,867 27,358 29,200 30,872

9,6699,726 10,475

10,077 10,0421,8771,898 1,850 1,646 1,699

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuji Others (mostly Gala, Qinguan) Guoguang

(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China MOA

(68.8%)(72.4%)

(25.8%)

(23.6%)(5.4%)

(4.0%)

CAGR:6.02%

CAGR: 0.95%


2015 Apple Crop Utilization

35,495,

83%

3,598, 8%

2,000, 5%1,600, 4%

(2015 Production + Import = 42,693)

Fresh Consumption AJC Processing

Other Processing Export

(Unit: 1,000 MT)

28.1%

28.0%

18.9%

14.4%

12.1%

12.2%

13.5%

8.9%

7.2%

8.1%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

For Apple Juice Concentrate


2016 Apple Crop Forecast

Shaanxi- Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety, but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase



Shandong- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase

- Shandong: Good weather condition. Smaller crop in early variety but not accounted much (around 10%). Big crop in Fuji. Forecast 5% increase


Fuji Apple Crop in Shandong

Aug 6, 2016

2016 Fuji Apple 2015 Fuji from CA storage



Henan- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase


- Henan: Up to 50% decrease in early variety (relatively higher share). Hail damage. Forecast 5% decrease



Shanxi- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase



- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast a little decrease or flat


2016 Apple Crop in Shanxi

Aug 4, 2016

Qinguan Fuji

May 2016



Gansu- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase



- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast 3% decrease

- Gansu: Qinguan/Gala cut down for Fuji. Forecast: 1% decrease



Liaoning- Shaanxi: Normal weather. Smaller crop in early variety but big crop in Qinguan and Fuji. Forecast 5% increase



- Shanxi: Big decrease in Gala crop. Hail damage in May. But big crop expected in later varieties. Forecast 3% decrease

- Gansu: Cutting down Qinguan/Gala for Fuji. Forecast: 1% decrease

- Liaoning: Early varieties have been replaced with Fuji. Up to 30% decrease in Guoguang due to wind. Forecast 3% decrease


2016 China Apple Crop

Forecast

• Smaller crop in early varieties (Gala) but big in later varieties (Qinguan, Fuji)

• Average acreage increase

• Very tight supply of early varieties for processing

2016 Crop Forecast:

43,800,000 MT2.8% increase from 2015 crop, 10.8% increase from 5-year average


Fuji Apple Wholesale Price Trend

8.768.26

8.768.30

7.957.66 7.39 7.55 7.41 7.38

6.52 6.55 6.79

9.579.86

9.57

8.84 8.89 8.82 8.719.31 9.42

9.13 9.02 8.97 8.76

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

6/30 7/30 8/30 9/30 10/30 11/30 12/30 1/30 2/30 3/30 4/30 5/30 6/30

Red Fuji with Diameter>80mm

2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014

RMB/KG

Source：中国果品流通协会

-22.5% vs 2015


China 3-year Apple Import

10,38112,377 11,114

1,613

35,485

10,108 10,381

16,878

2,020

39,387

22,504 22,464

37,284

5,290

87,542

18,330

3,9481,660

4,168

28,10623,597

13,105

383 1,939

38,641

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Chile NZ USA Others Total

(Unit: MT) Source: China Customs

2016 (1-5) 2015 (1-5) 2015 2014 2013

Increased more than 3 times in 2015

especially due to big import from the USA, then slowed down in 1st half of

2016.


China 5-Year Apple Export

1,035 976 995865 833

631

334

$884$984

$1,036

$1,188$1,238

$1,127

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (1-6) 2015 (1-6)

Qty: 1,000 MT Price/MT Column1 Column2 Column3

+89% vs’15 (1-6)

(Source: China Customs)


2015 China Apple Export by country

Bangladesh129,173

16%

Thailand103,443

12%

Vietnam86,076

10%Russia85,660

10%Phillippines

69,2298%

Indonesia57,607

7%

Kazakhstan45,491

6%

Others256,338

31%

Total Export: 833,017

The 89% increase in 2016 (1-6) from 2015 (1-6) attributed to big

increase to major markets, especially to India and Philippines

15,795

17,073 17,30117,964

18,699

1,0861,089

1,112 1,113

1,070

1,075

1,080

1,085

1,090

1,095

1,100

1,105

1,110

1,115

1,120

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pear Production (1,000 MT) Acreage (1,000 Ha)

China 5-Year Pear Production,

Area Planted

(Unit: 1,000 MT) Source: China MOA

+18.4%CAGR: 4.3%


SDIC ZHONGLU FRUIT JUICE CO.ZHONGLU AMERICA CORP.

Thank you !

2016 China Apple Crop Outlookusapple.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Thr-410-Choi.pdfZHONGLU AMERICA...

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