2016 Champions League Final

Performance Preview

Peter Usher Calgary, Canada

This document provides a summary of data collected for Real Madrid and Atletico de Madrid during the Group and Knockout stages of the 2015-16 Season. The purpose is to provide a comparison of the two teams using a selected group of performance variables.

Data is provided for each performance variable and the reader is encouraged to use that data to observe and analyze the match using a different lens and, make a prediction for the UCL Final.

Competition Results

In their two head-to-head matches during the regular La Liga season Atletico held a slight edge with a an Away win, 1-0 and a 1-1 draw at Home.

In their twelve UCL matches Real had a goal scoring average (GSA) of 2.3. However, Real’s 27 goals include a ‘malmoth’ collapse (pun intended) when Malmo conceded 8 goals at the Bernabéu. Substituting those 8 goals with the GSA value, Real would have a GSA of 1.8; a meaningful half-goal per match difference in a 1-off match.

Your UCL Final Prediction: Result Score

Real Atletico

Table 1 2015-16 UCL Results

W D L GS GSA GC GCA

Real Madrid 9 2 1 27 2.3 5 0.4

A. Madrid 5 3 4 16 1.3 7 0.6

peterusher@mac.com �1

Strike and Delivery Zones

Figure 1 shows the Gold Zone (optimal strike and goal-scoring zone) and the Delivery Zones used by 1

the author for collecting and analyzing performance data.

Throughout this report reference will be made to ‘zones’ as shown in Figure 1. Previous surveys conducted by the author over the past 10 years 1

have shown, in both League and Tournament competitions, approximately 80% of the goals are scored from inside the Gold Zone (GZ) as shown in Figure 1. The research findings indicate the GZ is the optimal scoring area, or most favourable location for converting strikes into goals. The GZ has three areas: G, the goal area; P1, the area from G to the penalty spot; and P2 which extends from the penalty spot to the edge of the penalty area. Each of these areas extends the width of the Goal area.

peterusher@mac.com �2

Wide Channel

Box Channel

Central Attacking ZoneWide

Attacking Zone

Crossing Zone

Box Pass Zone

Middle Third Central Channel

Gold Zone

Figure 1The Gold Zone and the Delivery Zones

Location of Goal Scoring Strikes

• Real Madrid scored 70% of their goals from strikes taken inside the Gold Zone • 13 (48%) of their 27 goals were from strikes in P1 (see Footnote above)

• Atletico scored 100% of their goals inside the GZ with an almost equal distribution across G, P1 and P2

Your UCL Final Prediction: GZ Goals Goals OGZ Real Atletico

Strike Attempts

In Total strikes (Column 6), Real had a significant larger number per match than Atletico. However, it should be noted that the difference is primarily due to the greater number of strike attempts taken from outside the GZ. This is an important consideration given that Real’s strike accuracy in OGZ is only 41% and their strike to goals conversion from strikes attempts outside of the GZ is only 5.3%.

Your UCL Final Prediction: GZ Strikes Strikes OGZ Real Atletico

Ratio of Strikes to Goals

Table 2 Distribution of Strike Attempts (Match Average)

G P1 P2 GZ OGZ Total GZ% OGZ%

Real 0.9 4.1 2.3 7.3 12.6 19.9 36.7% 63.3%

Atletico 1.0 3.3 2.0 6.3 7.0 13.3 47.4% 52.6%

Table 3 Ratio of Strikes to Goals

GZ OGZ

Goals Strikes Ratio Conversion Goals Strikes Ratio Conversion

Real 19 88 4.6 21.6% 8 151 18.9 5.3%

Atletico 12 61 5.1 19.7% 0 62

peterusher@mac.com �3

Strike Efficiency and Strike Accuracy

Atletico is slightly more efficient (fewer blocked strike attempts) and accurate in the GZ. Atletico have an edge in SAcc for OGZ but given their UCL history will it matter?

Your UCL Final Prediction: GZ SEff GZ SAcc OGZ SEff OGZ SAcc Real Atletico

Table 4 Strike Efficiency (SEff) and Strike Accuracy (SAcc)

GZ OGZ

SEff SAcc SEff SAcc

Real 75.2% 61.7% 71.9% 41.3%

Atletico 79.7% 63.6% 69.4% 46.5%

peterusher@mac.com �4

Gold Zone Deliveries

Table 5 provides the data for the attempts to deliver the ball into the GZ from the respective delivery zones (see Fig. 1).

Successfully delivering the ball into the GZ is a key performance variable which increases the probability of winning. There is a slight difference between the two teams for the number of GZ Attempted Deliveries (failed delivery attempts). Though the difference may seem slight, Real has almost two extra GZ Possession Deliveries (GZPD) than Atletico. If Real converts those deliveries into strikes it increases their probability of scoring.

Your UCL Final Prediction: GZAD GZPD Conversion Rate Real Atletico

Distribution of Attempted Deliveries into the Gold Zone (GZAD) In the Group and Knockout stages of the competition, 34.1% of Real Madrid’s total deliveries into the GZ came from the Central Channel zones (CAZ and BPZ) whereas the value for Atletico was 27.6%.

60.5% of the Real’s deliveries were from the Wide Channel; 65.4% for Atletico. The remaining deliveries, minimal in number, were from the Middle-third or Regains inside the GZ.

Gold Zone Possession Deliveries (GZPD) Though the majority of deliveries were from the Wide Channel zones, the predominant number of successful deliveries into the GZ for both teams came from the Central Channel zones. Of Real’s GZ possessions, 50.5% came from the Central Channel, 34.7% from the Wide Channel and just over 10% resulted from regaining possession inside the GZ. For Atletico the values were 49.3% for CC, 43.5% from the WC and 7.2% from Regains.

Anticipation, awareness and determination are performance characteristics which play an important role in harvesting Regains inside the GZ. Look for them in the Final. They could be deciding factors. 2

Table 5 Gold Zone Deliveries (Match Average)

GZAD (Failed) GZPD (Successful) Total Conversion

Real 21.9 9.5 31.4 30.3%

Atletico 20.6 7.7 28.3 27.2%

A Regain is a possession gained in the GZ usually following a previous delivery or strike attempt. for example, in making a ‘save’ the goalkeeper 2

parries the ball away and possession is then gained by the attacking team.

peterusher@mac.com �5

Conversion Success Deliveries from the Central Channel, most along the ground, have a greater probability of being converted into possessions inside the GZ. For Real, conversion success from the Central Channel (CC) was 44.9% but only 17.4% from the Wide Channel (WC). The values for Atletico were similar; CC = 48.6%, WC = 18.1%.

Tables 6 through 8 provide the Distribution values and the ranking for each of the Delivery Zones.

Rankings for Distribution

Rankings for GZPD

A comparison of Tables 6 and 7 show a significant shift in the Ranking values. The majority of total deliveries originate from the Wide Channel zones and yet the majority of deliveries providing possessions in the GZ come from the Central Channel zones.

Table 6 Distribution and Rankings for the Total Deliveries

Central Channel Wide Channel

CAZ BPZ R WAZ CZ CKL M3

RealDistribution 13.4% 20.7% 3.2% 13.7% 29.3% 17.5% 2.2%

Rank 4 2 6 5 1 3 7

AtleticoDistribution 14.2% 13.4% 2.0% 15.7% 29.5% 20.1% 5.1%

Rank 4 5 7 3 1 2 6

Table 7 Distribution and Rankings for Successful Deliveries (GZPD)

Central Channel Wide Channel

CAZ BPZ R WAZ CZ CKL M3

RealDistribution 25.3% 25.3% 10.5% 7.4% 16.8% 10.5% 4.2%

Rank 1 1 4 6 3 4 7

AtleticoDistribution 27.5% 21.7% 7.2% 10.1% 14.5% 18.8% 0.0%

Rank 1 2 6 5 4 3 7

peterusher@mac.com �6

Ranking for Conversion Success

Conversion success is the ability of a team to convert a delivery into a possession inside the GZ.

Though teams make more attempts to deliver the ball into the GZ from the WC zones, including long corner kicks, they have greater success of gaining GZ possessions from the CC delivery zones.

For both teams, the CAZ ranked 4th for the distribution of all delivery attempts as seen in Table 6 and yet the CAZ provided the most successful deliveries with the highest conversion rates.

Table 8 Rankings for Conversion Success

Central Channel Wide Channel

CAZ BPZ R WAZ CZ CKL M3

RealDistribution 57.1% 36.9% N/A 16.3% 17.4% 18.2% 57.1%

Rank 1 3 6 5 4 1

AtleticoDistribution 52.8% 44.1% N/A 17.5% 13.3% 25.5% 0.0%

Rank 1 2 4 5 3 6

Table 9 Summary of Rankings

Central Channel Wide Channel

CAZ BPZ R WAZ CZ CKL M3

Real

GZAD 4 2 6 5 1 3 7

GZPD 1 1 4 6 3 4 7

Conversion 1 3 N/A 6 5 4 1

Atletico

GZAD 4 5 7 3 1 2 6

GZPD 1 2 6 5 4 3 7

Conversion 1 2 N/A 4 5 3 6

peterusher@mac.com �7

What do you expect will happen in the UCL Final? Place your predicted rankings in the Table below.

Central Channel Wide Channel

CAZ BPZ R WAZ CZ CKL M3

Real

Distribution

GZPD

Conversion N/A

Atletico

Distribution

GZPD

Conversion N/A

peterusher@mac.com �8

Contribution of GZPD to Strikes and Goals

During the match you may want to make a note of which Delivery Zones/Channel contribute to strike attempts and goal-scoring opportunities (actual strikes on-target).

What is your prediction? What actually happened?

Passing Accuracy

In their respective 12 matches Real Madrid made more passes with greater success than Atletico in all area of the field. Of key interest in the final will be the ability of both teams to gain a sizeable number of passes in the attacking-third of the field because its this part of the pitch which serves as the primary zones for attempting deliveries into the GZ. Passing success in the attacking-third increases the probability for providing those deliveries.

The data displayed in Table 9 suggests Real Madrid may have the edge in this performance category.

It will be onerous to attempt to count the number of passes so observe the match to get just a sense of each team’s passing ability in the final third.

Which team do you predict will have the better passing success in the attacking-third in the UCL Final?

Table 9 Passing Accuracy (Match Average)

Defending & Middle Thirds Attacking-Third Total

T S % T S % T S %

Real 442.3 406.8 92.0% 168.3 133.5 79.3% 610.6 540.3 88.5%

Atletico 328.5 275.7 83.9% 156.8 111.2 70.9% 485.3 386.9 79.7%

peterusher@mac.com �9

Attacking Pressure

The Chart below outlines the attacking pressure profiles for both teams. The composite profiles were determined from data collected during the matches in the Group Stage and Knockout matches. Atletico had a relative balance in the quantity of attacking pressure they applied through the six 15’ intervals with a slight increase during the last two intervals.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, had a greater value of attacking pressure units throughout all 15’ intervals and did so with a variation of tempo throughout their matches. As the games proceeded, Real Madrid increasingly applied more attacking pressure.

In a 1-off Final, anything could transpire with an overall strategy and moment-to-moment tactics playing a role. However, past behaviour is a good predictor of future behaviour. What do you think will happen?

peterusher@mac.com �10

AM RM