2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK February 10, 2016 Greater Antelope Valley AOR Sara Sutachan, Industry Relations & Strategic Initiatives Manager ECONOMIC OUTLOOK U.S. is under-performing Q4 GDP.7% Job-growth is slowing; full-Employment mid-2016 Wealth effect from equity drop January: Dow fell 5.5%; S&P 500 fell 5.1%; Nasdaq tumbled 7.9%. Consumers spending moderate but slowing Low oil prices help and hurt Strong dollar hurting exports Global economy is struggling: China : 6.9% in slowest in 25 years Shift away from manufacturing Fed meets next in March Dont expect rate hike unless stock market volatility subsides LATEST ECONOMIC NEWS GDP ECONOMY GROWING FOR 6 YEARS 2015: 2.4%; % 2015 Q4: 0.7% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ ANNUALLYQUARTERLY 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%) SERIES: GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis FULL EMPLOYMENT EXPECTED BY MID /15: 292K new jobs 1/16 151,000 new jobs, expected 180,000 Recession Job Losses: 8.8 million --- Since Jan10: million MONTH TO MONTH CHANGE SERIES: Employment Growth SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 8-YEAR LOW January % SERIES: Unemployment Rate The U-6 rate covers the unemployed, underemployed and those who are not looking but who want a job SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE December 2015: CA +2.9%, +459,400 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Los Angeles County, December 2015: 5.8% SERIES: Unemployment Rate SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Los Angeles County, December 2015: Up 2.2% YTY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division JOB CHANGES BY INDUSTRY SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division Los Angeles County, December 2015: +2.2%, +93,700 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE LOS ANGELES COUNTY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH LOS ANGELES COUNTY PERSONAL INCOME AND TAXABLE SALES GROWTH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX January 2016: 98.1 INDEX, 100=1985 SERIES: Consumer Confidence SOURCE: The Conference Board FED FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE AFTER 7 YEARS SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM, Federal Funds SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation MORTGAGE RATES FALLING IN JANUARY January 2009 January 2016 MONTHLY WEEKLY SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation RATE HIKE 12/16/15 NORMALIZATION HAS BEGUN Not an easy call balancing act -Global economic slowdown/Strong dollar Emerging markets vulnerable to rising rate environment -Heighten stock market volatility Negative wealth effect could lead to slowdown in economic growth -Avoid a repeat of Taper Tantrum Fed had not articulated enough on all the moving parts and did not want to give any surprises 2016: WHERE ARE RATES HEADED? -Rates will VERY gradually increase in 2016 and Action will be data determined -Risk of rates increasing too fast: bringing economic growth to a halt -Risk of rates increasing too slow: zero leverage when next downturn hits U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK MEMBERSHIP FOLLOWS SALES WITH 1-2 YEAR LAG California, Dec 2015 Sales: 405,530 Units, +6.4% YTD, +10.7% YTY SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Dec-15: 405,530 Dec-14: 366,460 CA HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY IN ONE CHART SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 93.7% 3.3% 2.7% LOS ANGELES COUNTY Preforeclosure: 4,786 Auction: 3,526 Bank Owned: 3,135 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 LOS ANGELES COUNTY Preforeclosure: 4,786 Auction: 3,526 Bank Owned: 3,135 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 LOS ANGELES COUNTY Preforeclosure: 4,786 Auction: 3,526 Bank Owned: 3,135 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 LANCASTER Preforeclosure: 174 Auction: 112 Bank Owned: 157 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 PALMDALE Preforeclosure: 190 Auction: 130 Bank Owned: 157 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 CALIFORNIA CITY Preforeclosure: 15 Auction: 10 Bank Owned: 32 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 02/08/16 California, Dec 2015: $489,310, +2.6% MTM, +8.0% YTY MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Dec-15: $489,310 Dec-14: $453,270 Nov 2015: $235, Down 0.7% MTM, Up 2.1% YTY PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ALSO DOWN PRICE PER SQ. FT. SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS UNDERWATER MORTGAGES RISING PRICES HAVE REVERSED EQUITY LOSSES SERIES: Underwater Mortgages SOURCE: CoreLogic HOME PRICE APPRECIATIONS HAVE MODERATED SINCE MID 2013 SERIES: Sales of SFH and Condo Units SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS YTY% Chg. in Price Housing market fundamentals are strong Job & Income growth are positive Mortgage rates are low Lending standards more reasonable Household formation is rebounding And yet Supply well below long-run average Boomers are not moving Share of first-time buyers LOW Affordability-constrained Millennials looking outside CA WHERE ARE WE HEADED? Dec 2014: 3.2 Months; Dec 2015: 2.8 Months INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CA INVENTORY BY REGION Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS DEMAND SURGED IN DECEMBER BUT SUPPLY CONTINUED TO DECLINE SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Dec 2015 SO CA DEMAND SURGED IN DECEMBER BUT SUPPLY CONTINUED TO DECLINE SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Dec 2015 TIGHT SUPPLY CREATED MORE MARKET COMPETITION SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Affordability challenge for repeat buyers Low rate on current mortgage Low property taxes Capital gains hit is onerous Why list when there is nowhere to go I can afford? Could not qualify for a mortgage today Demographics: Trade-up buyer pool is smaller Foreclosure pipeline is dry Investors renting instead of flipping New construction recovering but LOW Measurement error? Off- MLS listings not counted WHERE IS THE INVENTORY? HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVE AS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moodys Analytics, C.A.R. Tenure of Homeowners (Years) WHERE ARE THE FIRST-TIME BUYERS? SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CALIFORNIA PRICES MORE VOLATILE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN THE NATION SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2015 Dollar Value California vs. U.S. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY PEAKED Q PRICES V. LOW RATES AND INCOME GROWTH % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AnnualQuarterly HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CA: BY COUNTY SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2015-Q3: % able to purchase median priced home HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R Annual Mean Wage California HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R. Annual Mean Wage Los Angeles California Vs. U.S. HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES SERIES: Homeownership Rates SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 2015p: 98,500 (42,190 sf, 56,310 mf) 2016f: 124,600 total units MISSING 100,000 UNITS ANNUALLY, AT LEAST SERIES: New Housing Permits SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board Household Growth: 165,000/yr REGIONAL/LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS LANCASTER SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Lancaster, January 2016: 138 Units Down 40.0% MTM, Down 8.6% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Lancaster, January 2016: $206,000 Down 2.7% MTM, Up 13.2% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics FOR SALE PROPERTIES Lancaster, January 2016: 662 Units Up 3.1% MTM, Down 35.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Lancaster, January 2016: 2.2 Months SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. PALMDALE SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Palmdale, January 2016: 127 Units Down 29.4% MTM, Up 2.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Palmdale, January 2016: $251,560 Down 2.9% MTM, Up 6.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics FOR SALE PROPERTIES Palmdale, January 2016: 581 Units Up 3.0% MTM, Down 35.7% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Palmdale, January 2016: 2.2 Months Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics CALIFORNIA CITY SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES California City, January 2016: 10 Units Down 28.6% MTM, Down 37.5% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES California City, January 2016: $79,200 Down 28.8% MTM, Up 0.3% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics FOR SALE PROPERTIES California City, January 2016: 117 Units Up 5.4% MTM, Down 11.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY California City, January 2016: 4.5 Months Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY: 2015 FINDINGS MARKET COMPETITION COOLS DOWN AFTER PEAKING IN 2013 SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SHARE OF INVESTMENT PROPERTIES DROPS TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009 SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SHARE OF CASH BUYERS LOWEST SINCE 2009 Almost one-fourth of buyers paid with all cash The share of all cash buyers is the lowest in the last 6 years SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS LOWEST IN 8 YEARS Q. Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.? SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CA: COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS The Boomers and their next move The Boomers and their Next Move BOOMERS BORN BETWEEN What is your age? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Average: 59 MAJORITY ARE MARRIED What is your marital status? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 3/4 BABY BOOMERS ARE HOME OWNERS What is your current living situation? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS MOST HAVE EQUITY IN THEIR HOME Do you have equity in your home? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS MAJORITY DO NOT PLAN TO SELL HOME WHEN THEY RETIRE Do you plan to sell your current home when you retire? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS MAJORITY WORRY ABOUT CHILDRENS ABILITY TO BECOME HOME OWNERS Do you worry about your childrens ability to become home owners in the future? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS TIME TO TALK: 2/5 PLAN TO HELP CHILDREN WITH DOWN PAYMENT Do you plan to help your children with their down payment to purchase a home? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS WHAT KEEPS BOOMERS UP AT NIGHT? What keeps you up at night? SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS NEXT GENERATION HOME BUYERS: MILLENNIALS? FAMOUS MILLENNIALS OVER 1/3 LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS What is your current living situation? SERIES: 2014 Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS MILLENNIALS NOT MARRIED What is your marital status? MAJORITY OF OLDER MILLENNIALS ARE MARRIED/COMMITTED *Source: 2013 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau What is your marital status? 62% ARE MINORITIES What is your ethnic background? MAJORITY RENT BECAUSE THEY CANT AFFORD TO BUY Why do you rent instead of buying? HOUSING CRISIS AFFECTED HOME OWNERSHIP PERSPECTIVE Has the recent ( ) housing crisis made you less likely to consider owning a home a good investment? MOST EXPECT TO BUY A HOME WITHIN 5 YEARS When do you expect to buy a home? HOME OWNERSHIP IS IMPORTANT How important is home ownership to you on a scale of one to 10, with one being not at all important and 10 being extremely important? ATTITUDE TOWARD THE HOME BUYING PROCESS MIXED RESULTS SOURCE: How would you describe your attitude towards the home buying process? C.A.R Millennial Survey MILLENNIALS BIGGEST CONCERNS What are your biggest concerns about home ownership? Price/Affordability (45%)Problems with Credit, Mortgages, or Taxes (19%)Maintenance/Upkeep (14%)Satisfaction with Home/Location (7%)Responsibility (4%) MOST MILLENNIALS UNCERTAIN/DOUBTFUL THAT THEY COULD OBTAIN A MORTGAGE NOW?AMILLENNIAL ETHNICITY SOURCE: C.A.R Millennial Survey Q: Could you obtain a mortgage if you applied now ? 2015 SURVEY OF CALIFORNIA BUYERS MAJORITY OF BUYERS INTERVIEWED MORE THAN ONE AGENT Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home purchase? BEING RESPONSIVE IS IMPORTANT TO BUYERS IN SELECTING AN AGENT Q. What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent that you used in your recent home purchase?. 99 TOP 5 REASONS FOR SATISFACTION WITH AGENT Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent? 100 Communication problems (5.2%) Negotiation problems (3.3%) Agent needed to do better job of monitoring transaction (1%) REASONS FOR DISSATISFACTION WITH AGENT Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent? 101 MOST BUYERS WOULD RECOMMEND AGENT TO OTHERS Q. Would you recommend your agent to others? 102 Communicate better (17%)Communicate according to client preference (12%)Negotiate better (9.3%)Understand market better (9%)Respond faster (7.6%) ADVICE TO AGENTS FROM BUYERS Q. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service? 1. I would have a better market understanding (14%) 2. Process would be faster & easier (9.1%) 3. Id seek additional assistance with mortgage approval (7.5%) 4. Agent would negotiate better (6.7%)5. Agent would respond faster (6.4%) WHAT BUYERS WOULD CHANGE ABOUT THE HOME BUYING EXPERIENCE Q. If there was one thing you could change about the home buying experience, what would it be? 2015 SURVEY OF CALIFORNIA SELLERS 70% OF SELLERS INTERVIEWED 1 AGENT Q: How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home selling process? Trustworthy (18%) Worked with agent on previous transaction (17%) Recommended (17%) Friend / acquaintance (17%) Good reputation/successful (16%) Fastest to respond (6%) REASON SELLER SELECTED AGENT Q: What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent you used in your recent home sale? 47% Work hard and stay on top of everything 47% Be honest and ethical 46% Keep client informed 34% Listen to client needs 33% Be up front with clients 30% Explain the process 27% Set the correct listing price SELLER ADVICE TO AGENTS Q: What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or level of service? 2016 FORECAST CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SALES UP FOR 2015 AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN 2015; PRICE WILL GROW STEADILY THIS YEAR AND NEXT Units (Thousand) Price (Thousand) SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS DOLLAR VOLUME UP 13.3% IN 2015, UP 9.6% IN 2016 % Change$ in Billion -60% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS BUYERS & SELLERS CREATING & MAINTAINING RELATIONSHIPS COMMUNICATION: WHAT IS YOUR BRAND? Dela: Say something wonderful today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHJvuwZdlZ4 Honeymaid: Love/This is wholesome https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBC-pRFt9OM P&G: Thank You Mom/Pick them back up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ult4t-1NoQ 2016 SPF BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS EXPO 2016 SAVE THE DATE - LONG BEACH REGISTRATION OPENS MAY 18 NEW: JUST LISTED & SOLD FACEBOOK ADS A REVOLUTIONARY NEW WAY TO GENERATE LEADS & LISTINGS Reach the neighborhood for qualified people Cutting edge mobile ads Leads you own Pricing from $99-$349 for 3 to 14 day campaigns JustListed.Social/car Back to Basics FHA Lending Programs What you need to know! by Finance Helpline Thursday, February 18, :00 a.m. 11:00 a.m. finance.car.org (213) New Member Benefit from NAR and C.A.R. Create checklist templates Manage all transactions at once Assist with reminders Document transaction events like calls MANAGEMENT AND SUPERVISION NEW CE Requirement Mandatory Subject New law Effective 1/1/ 2016 All California Brokers first time renewals need 3-hour course Management and Supervision All Salespersons + Brokers renewing second or subsequent time 3 hour course 8 hour Survey course 6 mandatory subjects Included in 12 FREE Hours Online CE courses from C.A.R. store.car.org/12FreeCE Live course local AORs or LearnMyWay car.org/education/calendar THANK YOU! finance.car.org downpayment.car.org This presentation can be found onSpeeches & Presentations