2016 4 27 NEEA EQL WCT Electric HVAC€¦ · Resistance HVAC, and Inverter Driven Heat Pumps April...
Transcript of 2016 4 27 NEEA EQL WCT Electric HVAC€¦ · Resistance HVAC, and Inverter Driven Heat Pumps April...
Integrated DSM:
Communicating Thermostats and Energy Management for Resistance HVAC, and Inverter Driven Heat Pumps April 25, 2016
Prepared for: Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Dave Kresta, Program Manager
Prepared by: EQL Energy, LLC 3701 SE Milwaukie Ave., Suite A Portland, OR 97202 Primary Author(s) Ken Nichols, Principal /EQL Energy / 503.438.8223 / [email protected] Gregg Hardy, Ecos Research Mike Lubliner, Washington State Energy Office www.eqlenergy.com © 2016 EQL Energy, LLC. All Rights Reserved This document was produced by EQL Energy, LLC in accordance with an agreement with (Client). Client’s use of this report is subject to the terms of that agreement.
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1 ProblemStatements......................................................................................................................2
2 Summary...........................................................................................................................................22.1 Findings....................................................................................................................................................22.1.1 ResidentialelectricresistanceHVACusagecontinuestogrowinthePacificNorthwest.22.1.2 DHPshavepenetrated6%ofelectricHVACPNWmarket,andgetting50%ofhomepotentialsavings...............................................................................................................................................................32.1.3 Web-enabledcommunicatingthermostatshavedemonstratedelectricenergyandcapacitysavingsthroughchangesinuserbehavior,improvedsensorandequipmentcontrol,andcustomersatisfaction............................................................................................................................................32.1.4 Web-enabledcommunicatingthermostatsexistforallresidentialHVAC,thoughfewexamplesinresistanceHVACandinverterdrivenheatpumps..................................................................42.1.5 UseofWCTsinresidentialelectricHVACwillprovidetheregionwith226aMWofcosteffectiveenergysavingsandover2,000MWofseasonalcapacity.............................................................5
2.2 Recommendations................................................................................................................................62.2.1 MarketResearchandoperationaldetailsofWCT/HEM.................................................................62.2.2 LabStudies..........................................................................................................................................................62.2.3 SEEMmodeling..................................................................................................................................................72.2.4 FieldStudies........................................................................................................................................................7
3 Background......................................................................................................................................93.1 MarketSizeandEnergy/CapacitySavingsPotential................................................................93.1.1 MarketSize..........................................................................................................................................................93.1.2 EnergyandCapacitySavingsSummary...............................................................................................103.1.3 SavingsbyEquipment,Sector,andRegion.........................................................................................123.1.4 RegionalHVACControlsandDHPMeasuresandResearch........................................................18
3.2 ResidentialElectricHVACproductsandcontrols...................................................................203.2.1 OnlyafewDHPvendorsoperatewithWCTs....................................................................................203.2.2 ThereareahandfulofWCTsthatworkwithelectriczonalandFAF,andthreeaftermarketWCTsthatworkwithbothDHPandresistanceHVAC.......................................................223.2.3 ResistanceHeatingManufacturers........................................................................................................223.2.4 WhatbenefitsotherthansavingelectricitydoWCTsprovidethismarket?.......................233.2.5 Whatlimitationsdoestheproducthavethatatypicalcustomermaynotexpect?..........23
3.3 GapsandmarketbarrierstoadoptionofWCTandHEMwithelectricresistanceHVACandDHP...........................................................................................................................................................243.3.1 Gapsandmarketbarrierstopotentialenergyandcapacityefficiency..................................243.3.2 Communicationprotocolsbeingusedandstandardsperspective..........................................243.3.3 Themesforcontinuedresearch,andfieldstudies..........................................................................25
3.4 NEEAstakeholdersareinterestedinWCTandBuildingEnergyManagement............254 Bibliography.................................................................................................................................26
4 References.....................................................................................................................................28
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1 Problem Statements 1. ThermostatcontrolssoldwithDHPs,zonalheat,forcedairfurnaces,andhearthheatersdonot
reflectcurrentstateofarttechnology,leadingtoreducedenergyandcapacitysavings2. ExistinghomesthatinstallDHPsoftenhavesecondaryheatingsourcesthatareseparately
controlledandreduceoverallenergyandcapacitysavings.
2 Summary CommunicatingThermostats(WCT)arecurrently20%ofthenewresidentialthermostatmarket,andexpectedtoincreaseto50%by2020.RecentresidentialstudiesusingWCTsshowbothelectricenergyandcapacitysavings.Thesesavingsareoccurringthrough:
a. Improvedtechnicalcontrolofequipmentandfaultdetectionanddiagnosis(FDD),b. Learningalgorithmsanduseofsensorinformation,e.g.,weatherandoccupancy,c. Userbehaviorchanges,d. FirststeptofullHomeEnergyManagement(HEM),lighting,waterheater,etc.,e. Automaticresponsetogrideventsorpricing(capacity).
TheprimarymarketnowforWCTsaresinglefamilyhomeswithASHP,CentralAir,andGasFAF.However,thePacificNorthwestresidentialHVACloadremainsover60%inotherHVACtypesthatcouldbenefitfromWCTintegrationandfunctionality,includingElectricResistancezonalandFAF,inverterdrivenMini-splitheatpumps,andsectors,e.g.,Multifamily,ManufacturedHomes,andSmallCommercial.
2.1 Findings
2.1.1 Residential electric resistance HVAC usage continues to grow in the Pacific Northwest
PNWresidentialelectricresistanceHVACmarketisexpectedtogrow1%annually.Inthenext20yearsthenumberofhomeswithnon-heatpumpelectricHVACwillmovefrom1.9MM,consuming1,185aMW/yrto2.9MM,consuming2,260aMW/yr.(Navigant,2015)ThisPNWmarkettrendisreinforcedbyCadetManufacturingwhoexpectstosell200,000units/yrofelectriczonalheat,or
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regionalestimatesofmanufacturedhomeswithelectricForcedAirFurnacesbeingsoldat2,200to4,000units/yr.Strategiestoreducethisenergyusageincludeimprovementinbuildingcodes,weatherization,improvedwindows,anduseofvariousheatpumpstoreplaceorsupplementnonheatpumpHVAC.WethinktherearefurthersavingsinthismarketbyintegratingWCTsandenergymanagementsystemswithnewandretrofittedelectricHVAC.
2.1.2 DHPs have penetrated 6% of electric HVAC PNW market, and getting 50% of home potential savings.
DuctlessHeatPumpmarketpenetrationinPNWhasbeenslowerthanexpected;anIllumestudyrecommendsmovingthe85%stockpenetrationforecastedin2028to2034.(Illume,2015)Todate,thePNWhasinstalledover100,000DHPs,orabout6%ofthemarket.MostoftheinstallationsareinsinglefamilyhomesandrepresentsupplementalHVACtoexistingelectricresistanceheating,andmayaddcooling.Energysavingsfromtheseinstallationsareabout24aMW/yr.Givencontinuedgrowthininefficientelectricresistance(ER)HVAC,pursuingWCTsandcontrolsforthisequipmentisagoodhedgeagainstslowerDHPandHPpenetration.
HomesthathaveinstalledsupplementalDHParegetting50%ofpotentialsavingsduetocontinueduseofotherlessefficientHVACsystems,andbehaviorthatincreasesenergyuse.(EcotopeInc.,2014).Non-HPheatcontinuedtoprovide50%ofhomeheating,andDHPmodelingstudies(SEEM)estimateda20%increasedusetoprovideotherbenefits,e.g.,increasedtemperaturesetpointsinmainlivingandsecondaryspaces,reducednon-electricsupplementalfuelconsumption,andincreasedoccupancyduringheatingseason.1InterviewsofDHPusersfoundfewoccupantsusedsetbackcapabilitiesandfoundDHPthermostatsnotuserfriendly.
2.1.3 Web-enabled communicating thermostats have demonstrated electric energy and capacity savings through changes in user behavior, improved sensor and equipment control, and customer satisfaction.
ThroughanEnergyTrustofOregon(ETO)studyofNestWCTthermostatwithAirSourceHeatPumps(ASHP)energysavingsrangedfrom5-20%ofheatingload(averageof786kWh/yr).(ApexAnalytics,2014).Savingswerenotachieveduniformlybyallparticipants,whichsuggeststhatsavingsaredependentonsituationandcustomerbehavior.Apexanalyst,NoahLieb,suggestedthesefindingsweredirectional,notstatisticallysignificant,basedonasamplesizeof161participants.Findingsincluded:
a. Manufacturedhomeshadalmostdoubletheaveragesavings.b. Lowerincomehomeshadalmostdoubleaveragesavings(1,654kWh/yr)c. Priorprogrammablethermostatusershadhighersavingsthannon-programmable.d. UseofAutoawayfeaturehadhighersavingsthanaverage.e. EnergysavingshigherinZone2thanZone1.
1 Ecotopeestimateda2.7Ftakebackintemperatureincrease.ThisanalysisguessedatbaselineindoorsetpointandtriedtocalibratebillingdatawithpreandpostinstallationresultsusingSEEM.HigherbillinganalysispostinstallationcouldalsobeattributedtomoreuseofinefficientERuse,sincethepre-installationsetpointwasnotmeasured.
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f. HomesinPortland/MetroareahadslightlyhighersavingsthanSouthernOregonorWillametteValley.
Thisstudydescribedsavingsdifferences,butdidnotattempttoprovidereasonsfordifferences.ThehypothesisforthestudywasthatsavingswouldoccurbecauseWCTfeaturewouldlockouttheresistancestripheatwhenoutsidetemperaturesallowedforefficientheatpumpoperation.2Whilethismayhavecontributedtosomesavings,itappearssensorsandbehavioralchangeswerealsoacontributortoparticipantenergysavings.
CaliforniastudiesonSmallCommercialuseofcommunicatingthermostatsandBuildingAutomationshowenergysavingsover20%,butequipmenttypewasnothomogeneous.StudiesshowthatuseofWCTimprovecustomerprogramparticipationandcapacitysavingsby67to200%.(EnergyInsights,2015)Moreutilitiesareconsideringpricingprogramsasthemeanstoachievingdemandresponseobjectives.Whilethismayfitutilityandrevenuemodels,thesepriceonlyprogramsgetlesscapacitysavings,lessreliability,andcanleadtohighercustomerbills.SeasonalpeakcapacitysavingswithWCTandHEMhavebeendemonstratedforsummermonthsinterritoriesoutsidethePNW.Forexample,Nest’sdemandresponseprogram,calledRushHourrewards,reducedAirConditioningloadby50%for2hourpeakperiodsinTexas,California,(AustinEnergy,2015) (Nest,2013)Theseprogramshadnocustomercomplaintswithonlyahandfulofcustomerquestions.Nestranawinter2015/2016demandresponseprogramatPGE,noresultsavailableatwriting.
2.1.4 Web-enabled communicating thermostats exist for all residential HVAC, though few examples in resistance HVAC and inverter driven heat pumps
TherearesomevendorsofWCTandHEMthatworkwithERHVAC(Sinope,HoneywellRedlink,Aube,Energex,Iotas,Verve)andwithductlessmini-splitheat-pumps(Daikin,Mitsubishi,LG),andonlyoneaftermarketenergymanagementvendorthatwillworkwithboth(PowerWise).WCTs,sensors,andsoftwareareinearlymaturitystageandexpandingintoallHVACsegments.DespiteavailableWCTtechnologywithERHVAC,companieslikeCadet,Nordyne,Evcon,etc.arenotofferingWCTswiththeirHVACequipment.Thepaceofimprovementandadoptionisfast,yetgettingtheseproductsfocusedonenergysavingsinERHVACandDHPwillrequirefurtherstudyandmarkettransformationattention.InthePacificNorthwest,therearenoWCTsinstalledwithERzonal/FAF,orinverterdrivenheatpumps(unlessaveryearlyadoptercustomer).ThisHVACisresponsiblefor66%oftheresidentialheatingloadin2015(1,185aMW)ThissuggestsamarkettransformationopportunityifWCTintegrationcanbeprovencosteffectiveforenergyandcapacity.
2 ThisstudyhasshownthattheNestthermostat,whenusedasanalternativeapproachtoanoutdoorthermometercontrollingthelockoutofresistancebackupheat,canofferconsiderableenergysavings.TheNestthermostatpreventsexpensiveresistanceheatfromrunning,byusingalgorithmstooptimizeenergyuseundergivenweatherconditions.Itisthis“smartalgorithm”featureoftheNestthatmakesitsoattractiveforaprogramlikethis.
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77%ofAmericansuseasmartphone,andover50%homeshaveconstantbroadbandservice.
2.1.5 Use of WCTs in residential electric HVAC will provide the region with 226aMW of cost effective energy savings and over 2,000MW of seasonal capacity.
With85%WCTpenetrationonASHPs,and700aMWusein2034,a12%energysavings,asdemonstratedinApexstudy,wouldsave73aMW.ForNon-ASHPelectricHVACweconservativelyestimatea7%energysavingsfromtheuseofWCT.ThisincludesdwellingswithElectricHVAC,DHP,oracombinationofthetwo.forthefollowingreasons:
1. RTFisusing5%savingsonameasuretomoveelectriczonalheatingfrombi-metaltoelectronicthermostats.3ThisRTFmeasureissimplyprovidingimprovedaccuracyonsetpoint,ornarrowingdeadband,anddoesnotnecessarilyincludeprogrammablefeatures.
2. 2002EWEBstudyshowsaverage18%savings(1,475kWh/yr)fromuseofprogrammablethermostatsoverbi-metalwithzonalHVAC.4WCTwilldobetterthanthis.
3. 90%ofthermostatsforzonalHVACarebimetallic.(bigsavingsopportunity)4. ManypeoplepointtoNestsavingswithASHP(12%)ascomingfromlockoutofresistancestrip
heat,butthatisonlyoneelementforsavings.EnergysavingsfromWCTsarefoundinGasFAFandCentralAC.RecentETOStudyfoundNestusewithGasFAFhad6%energysavings.5Thissuggestssavingscomingfromsomethingotherthanstripheatcontrol.
5. InETONestASHPstudy,WCTusehadhigherthanaveragesavingsinmarkets,e.g,.low-incomeandmanufacturedhomes.Thissuggestssavingscomingfromsomethingotherthanstripheatlockout.TheEnergyTrustofOregonexistingbuildingsprogrammanagersuggestedthismakessensebecauselowerincomehomespaycloserattentiontomeasuresthatcanprovide$20/monthofsavings,andtheyhavesmartphones.ThesearealsotargetmarketsforhighpercentageuseofelectricresistanceHVAC.
6. Savingsfrombehavioraltools,e.g.,Opowerarecominginaround2%.Thesetoolsprovideonlysocialinformation.WCTscanprovidemoreinformedfeedbacktohelpconsumerssaveenergy.
7. ThisdoesnotincludeCoolingloadsavings.
With85%WCTpenetrationonNon-ASHPHVAC,and2,260aMWbaselineusein2034,a7%energysavings(guess),Theregioncouldsave153aMW,andover2,000MWinWintercapacity.Thisisinadditiontoa442aMWsavingsthatcouldcomefrommoving85%ofthismarketintoDHPorinverterdrivenheatpumps.(Seetable2forbreakdown)WCTheatingelectricsavings:ASHP73aMW+non-ASHP153aMW=226aMW
3 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2016/04/ 4 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2016/04/ 5 http://assets.energytrust.org/api/assets/reports/Smart_Thermostat_Pilot_Evaluation-Final_wSR.pdf
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2.2 Recommendations
Todate,moststudieswithWCTsarewithASHP,centralairconditioning,ornaturalgasfurnaces.WerecommendstudiesthatexamineWCTandHEMinallelectricHVACequipmentandcustomermarkets,includingSF,MH,MF,andsmallcommercial.
WCTs,sensors,andsoftwareareinearlymaturitystageandexpandingintoallHVACsegments.Inadditiontoprovingenergy/capacitysavings,theyalsoprovideoccupants,HVACcontractors,andutilitywithimportantdata,analytics,FDD(FaultDetectionandDiagnosis).OftentimesWCTscomewithothersensors,e.g.,occupancy,outdoortemperature,andabilitytoreceivepricingorutilityinformation.Manufacturersofelectriczonal,FAF,andinverterdrivenHP(DHP)don’tseemtobemovingquickly,oratall,toincorporateWCTintotheirproducts.ThepaceofWCTimprovementandadoptionisfast,yetgettingtheseenhancementsandafocusonenergy/capacitysavingsinERHVACandDHPwillrequirefurtherstudyandmarkettransformationattention.
2.2.1 Market Research and operational details of WCT/HEM
WorkwithelectricHVACsystems,andDHPmanufacturersandunderstandtheirviewstowardWCTusewiththeirproduct.UnderstandbettertheproductdevelopmentdriversoftheelectricHVACmanufacturers,andtheirwillingnesstoworkwith3rdpartythermostats.1. EvaluatemarketopportunityforWCTstofocusontheElectricHVACresidentialmarket.The
RTFissuggestingelectronicthermostatreplacementsforbimetallicforzonalheat.Mostofthecostofmeasureisinstallationonlinevoltage.TimetolookatWCTinsteadofelectronicthermostats.
2. HowisHomeManagementmarket(Nest,Alarm.com,Iris,Wink,etc.)lookingatenergymanagement?WhatstrategiestogetthesehomemanagementsystemstoworkwithresidentialcontrolofHVAC,lighting,otherappliances.
3. DetailedresearchformarketbarrierstoWCTintegrationwithDHPandelectricHVAC.4. LookatbarriersofgettingWCTswithFAF,especiallyinManufacturedHomes.
2.2.2 Lab Studies.
SinceWCTcontrolofERHVACandInverterDrivenHeatPumpsisrelativelynew,itisworthwhileunderstandingsomeofthetechnicalintegrationfeaturesthatwouldleadtoenergysavings.JustasNestfocusonASHPstripheatlockout,theremaybeintegrationbenefits.ForinstanceWCTuseofoccupancyorlearningalgorithmsmightidentifyreasonsforsavings.
1. StudieswithzonalandFAF2. StudieswithInverterdrivenheatpumps,3. StudieswithWCTcontrollingbothERandDHP.
ExaminehowWCTworkversusASHP,andexploretechnical,vendor,andcostissues.
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2.2.3 SEEM modeling.
MuchofthesavingsfromWCTinvolvesuseofoccupancyandtemperaturesensors,learninghomeuserbehaviorandpatterns,andbetterequipmentcontrol.SEEMmodelingmaybeabletoconsiderWCTsavingsfromvariousbaselines,andaWCTwouldlooklikeotherprogrammablethermostats.Wedon’tthinkSEEMmodelingcancaptureenergysavingsfromuseofsensors,learningalgorithms,oruserbehavioralchanges.PotentialModelinganalysis:
1. EvaluatetechnicalinteractionsbetweenDHPandsecondaryHVAC,andevaluatingvariouscontrolstrategies.
2. DemonstrateenergysavingsfrombettercontrolstrategieswithvariousHVACequipment.Forinstance,inDHPstudies,occupantsdidnotuseprogrammablefeatures.WCTsmightimprovethiswithimproveduserfriendlinessandfeedbackfeatures.
3. UseSEEMtogeneralizesavingsfromlabtestingdataandfielddata.ThisaspectwasusedinEcotope’sDHPevaluationswhichdidincludebothlabandfieldstudydata.
SEEMmodelingcouldassistprovideenergysavingsestimates,andinformdiscussionswithvendors.
2.2.4 Field Studies
WethinkthatfieldstudiesincorporatingWCTswillbethemostbeneficialtoolatgaugingspecificequipmentandsegmentenergysavings,becauseoftheuseofsensordata,behavioral,andlearningfeaturescannotbeuncoveredinthelab,andcanonlybeguessedinmodeling.
1. ManufacturedHomes.OneyearstudyofenergyandcapacitysavingsusingWCTspecificallyinManufacturedHomemarkets,forbothnewconstructionstandardsandretrofits.UseWCT/HEMvendorsthatcancommunicateandcontrolbothDHP,andFAF.ThoughWCTsarenotoftensoldwithElectricFAF,thereareWCTsthatwillworkwithFAF.Innewconstruction,workwithChristopherDymondandtheNEEMandHPMHstandardefforttodefinestudyparametersandtechnologies.Forretrofitstudy,workwithprogrammanagersatBPA,ETO,andutilitiestodefinetechnologyandstudyspecifics.
InWashington2,500heatpumps(bothASHPandDHP)areinstalledinManufacturedHomeseveryyear.TheStateofWashingtonEnergyOfficeisworkingwithLabor&Industries(L&I)tocommissionandevaluateenergyusagedataonthesesites.ThisdataandmarketaccesscouldbeusedasaresearchprojecttodeterminesavingswithandwithoutWCTs,forASHPandDHP.ThisisalsoanopportunitytoengageL&ItoinstallWCTswhencommissioninghomeswithheatpumpsandelectricresistanceheat.2. Multifamily.OneyearstudyofenergyandcapacitysavingsusingWCT/HEMspecificallyin
Multifamilymarket.UseWCT/HEMvendors(e.g.,Iotas,Energex,Verve,other)toconstructastudyusing3groups(1.controlgroup,2.informationonly,3.Automation,sensors,andcontrol,and4.InformationPLUSAutomation/control).Studywilllooktomeasurethemarginalbenefitofcontrolwhichwillcostmoretoimplement.EQLEnergyhasbegunthefundingprocesswithBPATechnologyInnovation,ETO,andOregonBest.Siteshavebeen
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identifiedandtargetgroupsperbuildingare90units.Wewouldliketoalsoperformstudiesonsmallermultifamilydwellings.
EQLvisiteda2015constructedmultifamilybuildingwithCadetwallheatersandinefficientAmanaPTACs.ThereareWCTopportunitiesforsavingsinthismarketwithorwithoutDHP.
3. SingleFamily.OneyearstudyofenergyandcapacitysavingsusingWCT/HEMspecificallyin
SingleFamilymarketelectricallyheatedandcooledwithsomethingotherthanASHP.UseWCT/HEMinsinglefamilyhomesnewandretrofitsthatheatwithER,zonalorFAF.IntegratedInverterdrivenHP,includingductless,shortrunducted,andcentral.StudyofHEM/WCTwith1)DHPand2)zonalheat.LikelyvendorwouldbePowerWiseorothervendorbecauseWCT/HEMtechnologytomanageDHPandZonalHeatisonlyintheaftermarket,atthistime.Thestudywouldneedtobeadetaileddiveintothecommunicationtechnologyandintegrationofmorethanonevendor’sHVAC.ThisstudywillbedictatedbyavailabletechnologyandcooperationofDHPvendors.
3a. WSUEnergyOfficesubmittedafundingrequestthroughBPATIthatlooksatasampleof
similarlysituatedtownhomesinKingCounty.Studyincludeshomeswithexistingzonalheat,andinstallingunitswithshortrunductedminisplits(DMS),andsomewithDuctlessMiniSplits(DHP).
EQLEnergyproposedaddingtheWCTstudyfeaturethatwillworkwillallHVACtypestoexaminemarginalenergysavingsandpeakcapacityreductions.ControlsforERheatersinhomeswheretheyarenottheprimaryheatingsource,inconjunctionwithaDHPinstalledinthemainlivingarea.WSUproposestoworkwithKCHAandJohnsonControlstoevaluateweb-controlledthermostats(WCTs)aswellaspotentiallysimplerandlower-costnon-WTCabilitytocurtailERusebasedonoutsidetemperature,acceptableoccupantbedroomcomfortswings,and/orbedroomzoneoccupancy.Theresultsofthatevaluationwillinformwhatisusedinthe10casestudyhomes.
4. SmallCommercial.OneyearstudyofenergyandcapacitysavingsusingWCT/BEM
specificallyinSmallCommercialmarketthatuseelectricresistanceHVACorresidentialHVAC.Marketsincludelodging,eldercare,smalloffice/retailwithElectricHVAC.VendorswouldincludeIotasandEnergex.CostsforthesesystemsareoverallhigherthanresidentialWCT($750-$1,200),butsavingsandcapabilitieswillalsobehigher.Commissioningandusertrainingisimportanttoachieveenergysavingsandimproveuserperceivedcomfort.6
6 http://wcec.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OutcaultACEEE_Thermostats.pdf
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3 Background
3.1 Market Size and Energy/Capacity Savings Potential
3.1.1 Market Size
Thereareabout2MillionelectricallyheatedresidentiallivingspacesinthePacificNorthwest(singlefamily,manufacturedhomes,andmultifamily).Thesedwellingsuseabout1,950aMW/yr,with1,185aMWcomingfromresistanceheating(zonal,plugin,andFAF).A2015Navigantreportestimatedthatuseofresistanceheatingwillcontinuetoincreaseto2,260aMWby2034,a1%annualincrease.UsingthisdatatoforecastincreaseindwellingswithelectricHVACrevealsvaluesusedinouranalysisandshowninTable1below.Table1:MarketforElectricHVAC(non-HP)inthePacificNorthwest
(1)2015Illume,MPER4forNorthwestDuctlessHeatPumpInitiative(numberbasedon2010RBSAEcotopeSep18,2012)
http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/ductless-heat-pump-market-continues-to-increase-dhp-mper-4.pdf?sfvrsn=12
(2) 2012EcotopeRBSAsummary
http://neea.org/docs/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment-single-family-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8
(3) 2015ETONeststudywithASHP(12%heatingload,coolingwasnotpartofstudy)
http://energytrust.org/library/reports/Nest_Pilot_Study_Evaluation_wSR.pdf
(4) 2014NEEARBSAforMHandMF
http://neea.org/resource-center/regional-data-resources/residential-building-stock-assessment
(5) 2014EcotopeDHPFinalSummaryreportimpactandprocessevaluation,Ecotope
http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/e14-274-dhp-final-summary-report-(final).pdf?sfvrsn=8
48%ofpotentialsavingsfromDHPwest,23%savingsineast,becauseofsecondaryheatsourcelose30-40%ofsavings
(6) 2015Navigant,ResidentialInveter-DrivenHeatPumpTechnicalandMarketAssessment:
https://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential-inverter-driven-heat-pump-technical-and-market-assessment.pdf?sfvrsn=4
WethinkthereisamarkettransformationopportunitytoacceleratetheintegrationofWCTsforbothDHPandresistanceelectricheat.WCTsalreadyare21%annualsalesofthermostatsandareexpectedtobeover50%by2020.(Talpur,2015)Weonlyfoundonemanufacturer,Daikin,sellingDHPwithWCTs
Electric HVAC (non-heatpump)Units SF MH MF Total SF MH MF Total
ElectricHVAChomes Units 728,047 483,920 750,900 1,962,867 1,092,071 725,880 1,126,351 2,944,301
zonal Units 505,066 9,678 600,720 1,115,465 757,599 14,518 901,081 1,673,197
FAF Units 222,981 309,709 15,018 547,708 334,472 464,563 22,527 821,561
DHPinstalled(basedonpenetration) DHPunits 97,149 3,871 22,527 123,547 928,260 616,998 957,398 2,502,656
DHPPenetration % 13% 0.8% 3% 6% 85% 85% 85% 85%
MeasuredDHPSavings
AverageAnnualelectricspaceheat kWh 8,116 8,848 3,900
ActualsavingsperhousewithDHP kWh 1,900 2,071 844
ActualDHPsavingspercentageofHVAC % 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 22%
TotalPossiblesavingsifallHP 48% 62% 45% 60% 62% 60%
2015 2034Source(4)&(6)
(4)&(6)
(4)&(6)
(4)
(1)
(2)&(4)
(5)
calc
(5)
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(DaikinresellstheEcobee).Wefoundafew3rdpartyWCTequipmentprovidersworkingwithresistanceheat(Sinope,Honeywell/Aube,andPowerwise),andafewworkingwithmultifamily/lodging(EnergexandIotas).AnotherinterestingresearchfindingwasthatresistanceheatingmanufacturerCadethasoveronemillionunitsinthePNWandstillsells200,000units/yrofresistanceheatersintheNorthwest,primarilywallheaters.EQLvisiteda2015constructedmultifamilybuildingwithCadetwallheatersandinefficientAmanaPTACs.ThereareWCTopportunitiesforsavingsinthismarketwithorwithoutDHP.
3.1.2 Energy and Capacity Savings Summary
BasedonseveralstudiesonexistingDHPinstallationswethinkannualaverageMWsavingsforDHPinstallationstobeabout24aMW/yr.IfthesesameinstallationshadWCTthatcontrolledthesecondaryHVAC(zonal,FAF)weestimateanimprovedsavingswouldbe7aMW.Thisrepresents7%savings.Ifwelookoutto2034whereresidentialelectricHVACisexpectedtoincreaseandWCThas85%marketpenetrationofelectricHVACtheannualsavingswouldbe153aMW.SeeTable2ThissavingsislookingatWCTuseforallERHVACandDHPs.UsingEcotope’scalculatedenergysavingsanda85%stockpenetrationthesavingspotentialis442aMW/yr.Table2:EstimatedEnergyandCapacitySavingsfromWCTusewithDHPandSecondaryHVAC
EnergySavingsResearch(Ecotope2014)StudiesonASHPsavingsfromuseofWCTs(NestandHoneywell)showaveragesavingsbetween7and20%,whichgenerallycomefromavoidingorreducinguseofstripresistanceheatpresentinmostASHPs.(ApexAnalytics,2014)WeexpectWCTstoachieveanaverageof7%savingswithHVACotherthanASHPandwillbedependentonhousingstockandcustomerbehaviors.RegionalDHPinitiativesavingsestimatesarebeinginformedbystudiesconductedbyEcotope,RTF,ETO,andBPA.The2014EcotopeFinalSummaryonDHPImpactEvaluationlookedat3,899DHP
Electric HVAC (non-heatpump)Units SF MH MF Total SF MH MF Total
2015 2034
DHPPenetration % 13% 0.8% 3% 6% 85% 85% 85% 85%
AnnualEnergyUsageandSavingsCalculationsUsageElectricResistanceHVAC aMW 675 489 334 1,498 1,018 738 504 2,260
SavingsPotentialifDHP100%marketand
100%ofHVAC aMW 324 304 150 778 611 459 303 1,372
ActualSavings:DHPsavings23%xmarket
penetrationaMW 21 1 2 24 203 147 93 442
%savingswhenaddingERcontrolsorWCT 7.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7% 10% 7% guess
EstimatedsavingsbasedonguessforER
controlorWCTaMW 6.3 0.4 0.7 7 61 63 30 153
CapacitySavingsifWCTonDHPandSupplementalWinterCapacity kW 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5
SummerCapacity kW 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
WinterCapacity MW 97 4 11 112 928 617 479 2,024SummerCapacity MW 49 2 11 62 464 308 479 1,251
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installationswhichdisplacedelectriczonalheating.Averagesavingsinsinglefamilyhomeswere1,900kWh/yrfromabaselineaverageof8,116or23%.DHPCOPsinPNWaverage3witharangefrom2to4.SavingswerereducedfromCOPorlabresultsbecause:
1. Homescontinueduseofsecondaryheatwas30-40%.SeeFigurebelowthatshowsuseofsupplementalheatcontinues.Dependingonhowthermostatsareset,thesupplementalcouldevenbecometheprimaryheatsource.HavingathermostatthatcontrolbothwouldhelputilizeDHPmoreoften.
2. Savingswerealsoreducedby20%basedonbehavioralchangesthatincreaseduse.Ecotopeinferredthisfromdataanalysisbetweenameteredsampleandbillinganalysis.RTFhasrecognizedthenon-energybenefittotheDHPMeasureforincreasedcomfort($40/yr).EcotopefoundincreasedusewithDHPforfollowingreasons:
a. Classictakebackcustomersturnedupsetpoint(thiswasdemonstratedviapreandpostenergyuseforspaceheating)
b. Customersleftheatonalldayandnightc. Unoccupiedheating
Figure1:DHPSupplementingZonalElectricHeat
PeakDemandSavingsInordertoachievepeakdemandreductionsinhomeHVAC,itisimportanttoincludeWCTsandcommunicatingcontrolstoallheatingcircuits.Thesedevicesautomatetheprocessofparticipatinginrateorloadcontrolprogramsandleadstohigherdemandsavings.
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LBNL2015reportfoundthatpeakdemandreductionsforpricingprogramsusingWCTswere27%to45%,whilewithoutWCTs(-1%to37%).WCTs“lowerthetransactioncostsassociatedwithrespondingtopricesandcriticalpeakeventsbymakingiteasierforcustomerstoaltertheirelectricityconsumptionatspecifiedtimes.”(LBNL,2015)ASMUDWCTpilotevaluatingenergyandcapacitysavingsinmultifamilyfoundcapacitysavingsof29to35%whentiedwithapeakpricingprogram.(ACEEE,2014)Thisiscomparedtoa5-7%capacitysavingswhencustomersareonpeakpricingprogramandeducation.TheNPCCRegionalTechnicalForum(RTF)hasdiscussedthecapacityandenergysavingsfromDHPseeFigure2below.
Figure2:2014EnergyandCapacityforDHP,NorthwestPowerandConservationCouncil
3.1.3 Savings by Equipment, Sector, and Region
EquipmentTwostudiesbyEcotopeevaluatedpilotsforSinglefamilysupplementingzonalheatandSingleFamilyandManufacturedhomessupplementingelectricforced-airfurnaces(FAF).Bothstudiesshowedthatsavingswerereducedby30-40%fromtheuseofsecondaryheatsources.ThestudyonFAFfoundsavingsofabout5,500kilowatthours(kWh)resultingfromtheuseofDHPs.Thedriverofthesesavingswastheoccupant’sFAFandDHPcontrolstrategy:occupantswhomadetheDHPtheirprimaryheatsourcesavedconsiderablymoreenergythanthosewhoretainedtheFAFastheirprimaryheatsource.ThesavingsresultedfromacombinationofDHPefficiency,reducedenergywastefromductlosses,andachangefromheatingthewholehousetokeepingthemainpartofthehousecomfortablewiththeDHP.InventoryofheatingequipmentwasprovidedinNavigant2015andsummarizedinTable3below.
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Table3:ElectricHeatingUsebySystemTypeandSector(Navigant2015)Primary Heating System Type Total Load
(aMW) Single Family Manufactured Multifamily
Air Source Heat Pump 478 83% 17% 1% Baseboard Heater 638 66% 1% 33%
Boiler 19 100% 0% 0% Dual Fuel Heat Pump 41 100% 0% 0% Ductless Heat Pump 55 92% 8% 0% Forced Air Furnace 484 38% 60% 2% Ground Source Heat Pump 25 100% 0% 0%
Packaged Terminal Air Conditioner or Heat Pump
8 0% 0% 100% Plug-In Heater 44 78% 22% 0%
Source: Navigant 2015 Analysis of RBSA data SingleFamilyThereare728,047singlefamilyelectricallyheatedhomes,ofwhich505,066havezonalresistanceheat,and222,981withFAF.(Illume,2015)NEEAhasanambitiousgoalof85%ofthesehomeswithDHPby2028,whichmaybemovedoutto2034,basedonrecommendationsby(Illume,2015).Sincethe2008-2009largescalePNWDHPpilottherehavebeenlabtests,fieldmonitoring,billinganalysis,costanalysis,impactandprocessevaluations(Ecotope),aswellasregularmarketprogressevaluations(Illume).Thispreviousworkhasbeenoursourcetoestimatemarketsizeandopportunityforbettercontrolandintegrationwithsecondaryheatingsources.13%ofSFnewconstructiongetselectricheating.(RLWAnalytics,2007)ThegoalforDHPsupplementalheatistoreduceuseofzonalheatingasshownin
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Source: Navigant Analysis ManufacturedHomesFromTable2above,Manufacturedhomescomprise22%oftheNorthwest’snewconstructionmarketelectricload(approx.2,000to4,000units/yr)and14%oftheexistinghomesintheNorthwest.(NavigantMarketAssessment,2015)Almostallnewmanufacturedhomesareshippedwithelectricforcedairfurnaces,dominatedbytwovendorsEvconandNordyne(Nortek).Thisequipmentcancost$200fora16kWunit,plus$100forducting.ThismarketwouldrequireinterventiontogetmanufacturerstomovetoDHPorASHP,orincludingWCTs.February2016theRTFapprovedtheUES(UnitEnergySavings)measuretouseDHPinManufacturedhomes.AtitsFebruary2015meeting,theRTFagreedwiththeprofessionaljudgmentthatsavings,cost,andlifearenotsignificantlydifferentthanthesavings,cost,andlifeforthesamemeasureinsinglefamilyapplications.Thesinglefamilyresultswereuseddirectlyforthismeasure.Multifamily(MF)andCommerciallodging WethinkinMFtherearesimilarsavingpercentagesinmodifyingcustomerbehaviorandavoidinguseofsecondaryorprimaryheatsourcesthatuseelectricresistanceorPTAC(PackagedTerminalAirConditioner)units.Theperunitsavingswillbelowerthansinglefamilyormanufacturedhomes,butopportunitiesexisttocombinesavingsforallunitsatagivenlocation.Thatsaid,ifmarkettransformationeffortsweresuccessfulincombiningcontrolofDHPandsecondaryheat,thenMFcouldtakeadvantageofimprovedenergysavings.Ecotope2012foundinMFinstallationsofDHPs824kWh/yrsavingsinunitsfrom400-1,100sf.(Ecotope,2012).Wealsorecognizethatmultifamilyisalargeopportunitytoachieveenergysavingsthroughbettercontrolsofbaseboard/wallheatandPTACunits,withorwithoutDHPs.Aspartofthisresearchpaper,
612
413
281
147 127
76 69 33
9 19 4 2
Washington Oregon
Single Family Manufactured
Idaho
Montana
Tota
l Ele
ctric
Hea
ting
Load
(aM
W)
Figure3:ElectricHeatingbySectorandState(Navigant2015)
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EQLEnergywalkedthrougha500-unitPortlandapartmentbuildingthatwasbuiltin2015.TheHVACincludedinefficiencyelectricresistancePTACandwallheatersandelectricwaterheat.Technologytoachieveenergysavingsinhotelandmultifamilyaregenerallybasedonoccupancysensors.AccordingtotestingdonebyBCHydroandPacificGas&Electric,EnergexsystemsreduceHVACandlightingcostsbyupto40%,aswellasincreaseequipmentlifeanddecreasenoise.SeeTable4summarizingstudieswiththesetechnologiesshowaverageannualenergysavingsof900kWh/yr.EQLhasworkedwithEnergexonaprojectatUniversityofBritishColumbia-Vancouver.Table4:OccupancySensorEnergySavingsinMultifamily
BPAlookedathoteloccupancysensorsavingsin2010and2011andfoundanaveragesavingsof12%,fromturningofflightsandHVAC.(BPA,2010)InspeakingwithBPAmanager,ErikBoyer,BPAdidnotpursueaprogramofOccupancyControlSensors(OCS)forhotelsbecausethebaselinestudyshowedthathotelstaffwouldturnoffroomHVACandlightsaftercleaning.Mr.Boyerfeltthatthistypeofcontroltechnologymaybecosteffectiveinapartments,collegeresidence,ormultifamily.USDOEhadamorecomprehensivereportthatfoundincreasedsavings,butincludedareasnotrelevanttoNorthwest.(USDOE,2012)NewConstructionFroma2007reportonSingleFamilyresidentialnewconstruction,itappearsthat13%ofnewhomeshaveelectricheatininORandWA.Navigant2015,basedonRBSA,estimatedthatelectricresistanceheatingwillcontinuetoincreaseinuseby1%ayearfrom1,185aMWtodayto2,260aMWby2034.
Table5:2007studyonSFNewConstruction,heatingtype
State Gas Electricity Pellets Propane n % EB % EB % EB % EB
ID 90% 5% 3% 3% 0.4% 0.6% 6% 4% 179 MT 100% - - - - - - - 18 OR 82% 6% 17% 6% - - 0.5% 0.8% 178 WA 77% 5% 16% 4% - - 6% 3% 229
Overall 82% 3% 13% 3% 0.1% 0.1% 4% 2% 604
Washingtonenergycoderequiresthatheatpumpsmusthaveoutdoorthermostatsandlockoutuseofresistanceheatwhentemperatureisabove35F.Thisseemsanopportunitytodothiswheneverresistanceheatingisbeingspecifiedinanysectornewconstruction.SellingmainlivingareahastohaveDHP.Soahomewith4heatingareaswouldhave3resistanceheatareasstillusingresistanceheat.
Location units kWhsavings perunitsavings# kWh/yr kWh/yr-unit
ConestogaCollege 275 150,000 545
UnivTowers 470 210,077 447
WeinbrennerPlace 72 120,889 1,679
CreeburnLakeLodger 600 573,271 955
http://www.nrgee.com/energex-inc-removes-wasted-energy-from-empty-rooms/
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SmallCommercialWealsonoticedfromthe2014CBSAthatthereareseveralCommercialsectorsthatareappropriateforWCTandBuildingEnergyManagementsimilartoresidential,e.g.,lodging,residentialcare,universityresidences,schools,andsmalloffice/retail.SeeFigurebelowfromCBSA.LargerCommercialBMShaveenergy/capacitysavingsopportunities,butthetechnologyisveryspecifictosectorRetrofittingsmallcommercialwithDHPscanhavetremendousenergysavings.ABPAsponsoredreportbyEcotopefoundanaverageof4,185kWh/yrenergysavingsatsixsites.ThisreportfoundthatmorethanhalfthesiteshadDHPprovidingmorethan90%oftheheat.ThisisincontrasttoresidentialDHPretrofitswhereDHPonlyprovided45-80%ofthespaceheat.(EcotopeBPA,2012)WedothinkthataswelearnmoreaboutsavingsfromHEMandWCToptimizationandmanagingcompressorcycles,thattherewillbesavingsinthissector.EQLEnergyworkedwithCypressEnvirosystemstoreplacepneumaticthermostatswithcommunicatingthermostats.Ourstudyfocusedondemandresponseandwedidnotmeasureenergysavings.
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Figure4:2014CBSAHVACEquipmenttype
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3.1.4 Regional HVAC Controls and DHP Measures and Research
ThermostatsMeasuresETOprovidesa$50rebateforNestthermostatswithASHP,FAFelectricorgas.(ETO,2016)Thiswassupportedbypilotstudiesthatshowed12%electricsavings,andundocumentedgassavings.PacifiCorpandPSEinWashingtonprovidesrebatestocustomersforinstallationofWCTs.(PacifiCorp,2015)CurrentlytheRTF’sonlyresidentialthermostatandcontrolmeasureisReplacementofbi-metalthermostatswithelectronicthermostatsinnewandexistingsinglefamilyhomes.Lineandlowvoltagethermostatsareeligible.Measuresspecificinclude:Costis$235,lifeof15yrs,newandexistingconstruction,benefitcostratioispositiveinHeatingzone2and3,andneutralinHeatingZone1.WeexpecttheRTFtoconsideraddingWCTsasameasureforASHP,andwouldliketopreparemarkettouseWCTsforDHPandelectricresistanceheating.RTFhasnotaddedcommunicatingthermostatstoUESmeasures.TheystillhaveanelectronicTstatreplacementforbi-metalsavings/cost,andtheyareexaminingsavingsfromresidentialbehavior,e.g.,Opower.WearesurprisedthatWCTshavenotbeenaddedtoRTFmeasures.Table6:RTFMeasureonElectronicTstatreplacementforbi-metal(2012)Annual Savings Assumptions 5%
Heating Climate Zone
Pre80 Post ResWX Use (kWh)
Annual Savings (kWh)
Average Cost/Dwelling
Heating Zone 1 8,716 436 $235 Heating Zone 2 11,941 597 $235 Heating Zone 3 14,453 723 $235 Based on EWEB's Comfort STAT program. Average of 5 Thermostats per dwelling. RTFResidentialBehaviorRTFhasasubcommitteeonresidentialbehaviorsavingsandiscurrently(2016)exploringUESmeasure.(RTF,2016)Mostresidentialbehaviordiscussionsarearoundgenericmeteringfeedback,e.g.,OPower.Thesetoolsshowwholehousesavingsof1-3%.Forinstance,SeattleCityLightandPSEstudiesfound1.7to2.0%savings–about200kWh.Thistypeoflowvaluegenericinformationishardtocapturesavingsandthesubcommitteeisdebatinghowtoproceed.WithregardtoHVAC,WCTsprovidehighervalueinformation,sensors,andlearningmethodsthatdemonstratehigherpercentagesavingsthanmerelyrepackagedbillingdata.RTFWCTOptimizationLayerRTFhasaproposal(Mar.2016)fromWeatherBugtoconsideraddingacontrolsoptimizationlayertoWCTsbasedonweatherdata.JoshRushton,RTFanalyst,hasreachedouttoindustryparticipants,e.g.,RobertWeber(BPA),PaulSklar(ETO),BobbetteWilhelm(IdahoFalls),andKenAgnew(DNV-GL)toconsidertheproposal.InourviewRTFshouldconsideramorecomprehensivelookatWCTs,disaggregatedin-homeinformationandcontrolsystemsforenduses,e.g,waterheat,lighting,EVCharging,pool/spapumps,etc.
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WethinkthatfocusingontheoptimizationlayerisimportantandthatWeatherBugmaybeagoodplatformforcommunicatingwithcertainWCTs.Theypromoteopenstandards,whichisnotthecasewithallWCT(e.g.,Nest).ETOCurrentlyETOhasaDHPincentivefornewconstructionandRTFisevaluatingthismeasure.NEEAisthebestsourceofdataonDHPforexistinghomes.CoolingWethinkthatusingDHPswithWCTscanimprovebothenergyandcapacitysavingsinthesummer.Wedidnotestimatethesavingsvaluebecausewecouldnotfindanydetailedreportsthatdiscussedenergysavingsfromcooling.IncaseswhereDHPsareusedtodisplacewindowshakersorsmallairconditioners,coolingsavingswillhappen.Yettheelectricsavingsfromcoolingisstilllessthan10%ofheatingsavings.OfcourseaddingaDHPwheretherewasnopreviousACincreasesenergyuseandprovidesaddedbenefits.WewouldarguethatacrossthePNW,summerpeaksareincreasingduetomoreuseofACandhigherCDD.SupportingtechnologythatassistsinreducingACcapacitywillbenefittheregion.SeveralstudiesfoundthatDHPseitherdisplacedlessefficientcoolingorwerenotusedmuchinlocationsthatdidnothavepreviousAC.
Thereisnoapparentevidence,basedonthecurrentdata,thattheinstallationofDHPshascreatedasignificantnewcoolingload.Sitesthathadanotablepre-installationcoolingloadevidentinbillscontinuetohaveitinDHPusage,butthesitesthatdidnothavemuchcoolingbeforedonotseemtousetheirDHPsmuchincoolingmode.(Ecotope,2010)
WashingtonCodeWashingtonbuildingcodesrequiresresidentialbuildingswithERHVACtoaddaDHPtolargestzoneindwelling.ThismeansthatthereisanopportunitytoimprovesavingsbyfindingcontrolsandsetupproceduresthatcouldlockoutERHVAC.WithR403.1.1thereisanopportunitytoincreasesavingsbyinstallingWCTinsteadofprogrammabletstat.
R403.1.1Programmablethermostat.Wheretheprimaryheatingsystemisaforced-airfurnace,atleastonethermostatperdwellingunitshallbecapableofcontrollingtheheatingandcoolingsystemonadailyscheduletomaintaindifferenttemperaturesetpointsatdifferenttimesoftheday.EXCEPTIONS:1.Systemscontrolledbyanoccupantsensorthatiscapableofshuttingthesystemoffwhennooccupantissensedforaperiodofupto30minutes.2.Systemscontrolledsolelybyamanuallyoperatedtimercapableofoperatingthesystemfornomorethantwohours.
WithR403.7.1thereisanopportunitytoprovideimprovedsavingsbyusingWCTthatworkswithbothDHPandsecondaryheat.
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R403.7.1Electricresistancezoneheatedunits.Alldetachedone-andtwo-familydwellingsandmultiplesingle-familydwellings(townhouses)uptothreestoriesinheightabovegradeplaneusingelectriczonalheatingastheprimaryheatsourceshallinstallaninverter-drivenductlessmini-splitheatpumpinthelargestzoneinthedwelling.Buildingpermitdrawingsshallspecifytheheatingequipmenttypeandlocationoftheheatingsystem.
WithR403.1.2thereisWCTopportunitytoprovideimprovedsavingswhilemanagingstripheatlockout.
R403.1.2Heatpumpsupplementaryheat(Mandatory).Unitaryaircooledheatpumpsshallincludecontrolsthatminimizesupplementalheatusageduringstart-up,set-up,anddefrostconditions.Thesecontrolsshallanticipateneedforheatandusecompressionheatingasthefirststageofheat.Controlsshallindicatewhensupplementalheatingisbeingusedthroughvisualmeans(e.g.,LEDindicators).Heatpumpsequippedwithsupplementaryheatersshallbeinstalledwithcontrolsthatpreventsupplementalheateroperationabove40°F.Atfinalinspectiontheauxiliaryheatlockoutcontrolshallbesetto35°Forless.
3.2 Residential Electric HVAC products and controls
WCTsalreadyhave21%annualsalesofthermostatsandareexpectedtobeover50%by2020.(Talpur,2015)However,WCTsareprimarilybeingusedwithASHP,gasfurnaces,andcentralairconditioners.
3.2.1 Only a few DHP vendors operate with WCTs
DHPmanufacturersarebeginningtoincludeWCTsintotheirproduct,Daiken,Fujitsu,Mitsubishi,Panasonic,LG,etc.Theyaredoingthistorespondtocustomerpreferences,andenergysavingshasnotbeentestedorproven.
1. DaikinresellsEcobeewithsomeoftheirDHPs.TheycallittheEnvi.2. PowerwisehasiPhoneandAndroidappsareavailableforcontrollingthemini-splitheatpumps,and
remotelymonitoringtheirenergyuse.ItsupportscontrolsforMitsubishi(includingMrSlim),Fujitsu,Daikin,Panasonic,LG,andSamsungmini-splitheatpumps.Figure5showsagraphicofPowerWisesystemworkingwithDHPandconventionalHVAC.
3. FujitsuhasaWifienabledmoduleandthermostat.http://www.fujitsugeneral.com/wifi.htm
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Figure5:PowerWise2015WCTformini-splitsandotherHVAC
WCTwithDHPandresistanceheatingisalimitedgroupofvendors.CurrentuseofWCTwithDHPandzonalheatinthePNWisnearzero.Thedevelopmentstageisearlyandisfacedwithmarket,cost,technical,andcommercialbarriers.a. DHPwithfullyintegratedWCT(methodA)
TwoDHPmanufacturersthatweareawareof(DaikinandMitsubishi)haveworkedwithWCTvendors(EcoBeeandHoneywell)tointegratecontroloftheDHPwiththeWCT.TheseproductsareavailablefromDHPinstallers.ItisnotknownifthisconfigurationimpactsenergyefficiencycomparedwithtraditionalDHPcontrolsnortheextenttowhichfurtherintegrationworkbetweenthesevendorsisoccurring.BecauseonlytwoDHPvendorshaveadoptedthisapproach–eachwithasingleWCTvendor–significantadditionalmarketdevelopmentwouldneedtooccuriftheDHPsegmentofresidentialHVACmarketadoptsitasstandardpractice.
b. DHPintegrationwithWCTusingdrycontactterminalbinaryinput(methodB)weareawareoftwovendors,MitsubishiandLG,thathaveincorporateddrycontactterminals.Weunderstandthisallowsthemtoworkwithmostthermostats(includingWCT)using24Vcontrols.ThisapproachisalsoatanearlystageindevelopmentbecauseonlytwoDHPvendorshaveadoptedit.ItisnotknowntheextenttowhichtheuseofbinarycontrollogicwithDHPswilldegradeenergyefficiency,ifatall.Oneoutcomeofthisstudywillbetoassessthisquestion.AdditionallearningsfromthisstudycouldassistNEEAindeterminingwhereleverpointsmayexisttoengageinmarketinterventionwithDHPandWCTvendorsandidentifyingspecificaspectstoconsiderwithregardtointegrationmethode.g.,whetheroneshouldbeprioritizedovertheotherandwhy.WearealsounsureifthismethodallowscontrolofsecondaryHVAC.
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c. WCTcontrolofsecondaryelectricresistanceheat+DHPMostDHPinstallationsretainorincludesomeelectricresistanceheatingsysteminthehouse.AddingWCTcontroltothisheatsourcewillhavebothenergyandcapacitysavings.Becausesignificantsavingshavebeenshowntooccurthroughcontrolofresistanceelementsinair-sourceheatpumps(EnergyTrustNestHeatPumpControlPilotEvaluation),connectingWCTsthatareinstalledincustomerhomeswithanyresistanceheatlocatedinrelevantlocationsisanobviousopportunity.Thiscapabilityisavailabletodayonlyasahomeenergymanagementsystemorexpensiveretrofitofexistingsecondarycircuitsandin-linevoltagecontrols.Significantmarketdevelopmentislikelytobeneededbeforethisconfigurationisstandardpracticeorcosteffective.PartofourprojectproposalistoassessthefeasibilityaswellasenergyandcapacitysavingsfromincorporatingzonalresistanceheatcontrolwithaWCT/DHPinstallation.
3.2.2 There are a handful of WCTs that work with electric zonal and FAF, and three aftermarket WCTs that work with both DHP and resistance HVAC.
WCTsarenotwidelyusedforDHPorelectricresistanceheating.TheaftermarketWCTsinthisspace,andoftenfromsmall,sometimesstartup,companies.ThistechnologyisnotbeingdeployedinthePNW.
WCTsthatworkwithresistanceheatingandDHPsInclude:a. PowerWiseb. Pebble.http://www.minisplitwarehouse.com/product/mini-split-wifi-thermostat-controller-
with-7-day-schedulec. Ecobee(calledEnvibyDaikin).IntegratedwithsomeDaikinunits.Ecobeeisnotinvolvedin
productdevelopment.TheyjustsellatstattoDaikin..ListofWCTcompaniesisgrowingandincludes:Nest,Ecobee,Emme,Venstar,MountainLogic,Ecofactor.(WSUEnergyOffice,2012)Sinope,Honeywell,Emerson,Enerjoy,MagnumEnergySolutions7etc.
3.2.3 Resistance Heating Manufacturers
WeresearchedandspokewithfirmsinboththeelectriczonalandFAFmarket.ThisgroupdoesnotappeartomovingquicklytowardsWCTofferings.Thereareseveralaftermarketsolutions,buttheHVACmanufacturerswespoketofeltWCTpricepointistoohighfortheirmarket.Zonalheatincludes:Cadet,QMark,Dimplex,andEnergyJoy,8WespokewithCadetwhoestimatestheyhaveover1MillionunitsinthePNW,andsell200,000unitsperyearinthePNW.Thisequipmentisclearlyrelevantnowandintothefuture.Theyhavecreatedmoreefficientwallheaterswithuseoffans,anddoincludeprogrammablethermostatsfromHoneywellintheequipmenttheysellandsupport.TheydonotofferWCTandhavenoneartermplans.
7 http://www.magnumenergysolutions.com/uploads/Mx-PFC-E02036.pdf 8 http://baseboard-heaters-review.toptenreviews.com/
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ElectricFAF,e.g.,JohnsonControls,whomarketsColemanFAFunderlicensebyYork.Nordynebrandedundernamese.g.,Frigidaire,Maytag,Broan,Intertherm,andMiller.NordyneInc.8000PhoenixPkwy.O'Fallon,MO63366-3827(636)561-7300GettingWCTstoworkwithFAFequipmentismucheasierthanzonal,orlinevoltagecontrols.Thiscouldbedoneinnewconstructionoraftermarket.
3.2.4 What benefits other than saving electricity do WCTs provide this market?
WCTsprovidemultiplecustomerbenefitsincluding:1. Convenienceofusingasmartphoneorotherweb-enabledinterfacetomanagethethermostat.2. Detectandinformofequipmentissuesormaintenanceneeds.3. Learningfeaturesthatfocusonusercomfortandenergysavings.4. Informationandcommunicationwithotherhomedevices,e.g.,smokealarms,camera
monitoring,waterheater,etc.5. WCTsprovideutilitywithdata,communicationandcontrolfeaturesfordemandandpricing
programs.WCTsprovideHVACinstallersandequipmentinformationregardingHVACequipmentperformanceandsignalmaintenanceneeds.(Informationmayleadtobehavioralchangesthatsaveenergy–requiresmoreresearchinthismarket)
6. Forcedairfurnaces.Themarketwillberetrofitsandreplacementelectricheatingsystems.7. Abilitytoreceiveutilitycommunicationre:pricingorgridneeds.(demandresponse)8. WCTswithhomeenergymanagementhavemanyotherbenefits,includingotherenergysavings
approaches,e.g.,lighting,waterheat.HEMbenefits.CleaResulthasdoneseveralsurveysthatsummarizesotherbenefitsofHomeEnergyManagementsystems(WCTbeingoneelement).Theseinclude:
1. Automatedenergysavings(i.e.applianceknowstoturnonwhenenergyratesarecheapest,onlyapplicableinareaswithtime-of-use(TOU)rates)-53.2percent
2. Enjoyingamorecomfortablehomethat“learns”heating&coolingpreferences-49.8percent3. Usingsmartphoneappstocontrolthehomewhileaway(lights,heating/cooling,etc.)-48.6
percent.4. Improvingtheenvironmentwithdecreasedenergyuse-48.2percent.5. Receivingalertswhenappliancesneedattention(waterheater,airfilter,furnace,etc.)-47.2
percent
3.2.5 What limitations does the product have that a typical customer may not expect?
TheselimitationswerediscoveredintheEnergyTrustofOregonNeststudyin2015.9a. Equipmentincompatibility.Atpresent,customerswithDHPs,andzonalheatcannotgetoffthe
shelffunctionalitywithWCTs.b. Wifiandrouterissues.IfWCTuseswifi,thentheirusermayrunintotechnicaldifficulties,e.g.,
passwords,incompatibilitywithrouterorotherconnectivityissues,can’tusewithhotspots,
9 http://energytrust.org/library/reports/NestPilotStudyEvaluationwSR.pdf
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SomeWCTsareincompatiblewithRouters.Signalstrengthatthermostatlocationistooweak.(Thisisbeingaddressedwithproprietarycommunicationprotocols,e.g.,Weave,Zigbee,Insteon,Z-wave,Emo)
c. WCTtechnicalandwiringissues.WCTsarerelativelynewandwillexperienceerrors.DependingontypeofHVAC,wiringmayneedtochange.
WCT(Web-enabledcommunicatingthermostats)capabilitiescurrentandemerging:Ecobee,Nest,Honeywell,DHPvendors,etc.DualControloptionsforotherHVAC:a)zonalelectric,b)ForcedAirFurnace,and3)hearthheaters:Auberelays,Energex,Nest,Powerwise,etc.
3.3 Gaps and market barriers to adoption of WCT and HEM with electric resistance HVAC and DHP
3.3.1 Gaps and market barriers to potential energy and capacity efficiency
WCTsarerelativelynewandthevendorsofDHPsandzonalheathavejustbeguntoaddresstheincreasingcustomerinterestinusingWCTs.Weseemarketbarriersincluding:a. CostofWCTsmoreexpensivethantraditionalthermostat.b. DHPandresistanceheatingfoundmoreofteninlowerincomedwellings,whomaybelesswillingto
getamoreexpensivethermostat.c. DHPandzonalheatcustomersegmentinterestinWCTmaybelessthanotherresidentialHVAC
segments.d. Utilitypricingprogramsforcapacitydon’tyetexistinthePacificNorthwest.Theyarecoming.e. LackofawarenessbycustomersofWCTbenefits.f. ElectricHVACmarketusuallyinlowerincomemarket,whichmeansfocusonlowestpossibleinitial
cost,e.g.,ManufacturedhomeswithFAFcosting$250,orlowcostPTACsandwallheatersinapartments,etc.
g. Landlordtenantissues.h. LackofstandardsandcommunicationprotocolsinHVACcontrolsandWCTs.i. Setupandinstallationcostandchallenges.
3.3.2 Communication protocols being used and standards perspective.
CommunicationbetweenDHPandthermostatisproprietary.Therefore,usinga3rdpartyWCTmaybechallenging.SomeDHPvendorsareintegratingWCTswithDHPunits,butweareunsurewhatenergysavingvaluethismayhave.RegardingWCTsandhomemonitoringeachcompanysupportstheirownprotocol.Nestandpartners–Weave,HomeDepot–Wink,Lowes–Iris,Amazon–Echo,Apple–Homekit.
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3.3.3 Themes for continued research, and field studies
InPNWresidentialsectors(SF,MH,MF),whataretheenergy/capacitysavingsandotherbenefitsfromusing:1)WCTswithDHPs,2)WCTswithDHPandsecondaryHVAC,and3)WCTswithElectricHVACandnoDHP?SeeRecommendationssectionforspecificstudies.
Ifsavingscanbeverified,thenconsider:
1. Participateorcontributetostudieslookingatcommunicationandprotocolstandards,e.g.,CEA
2045.Presently,EPRIandothersareinvolvedinCEA2045communicationwithwaterheaters,poolpumps,airconditioners,etc.ThismaynotbethebeststandardforWCTmarket,butisanexampleofprojectstopromotestandardenergyenduseequipmentcommunicationinterfaces.
2. MarketTransformationplanningwithWCTstoprovideenergyandcapacitysavingsinthePNW.OnceWCTsavingsareprovenandcosteffectivenessisexpectedtobeachievable,werecommendNEEAandpartnersconsideramarkettransformationstudytoevaluate.
3. EvaluateconsumerbehaviorwithWCTandElectricHVAC(DHP,zonal,FAF).Lookatdistinctionbetweentotalsavingsobservedandsavingsinbillinganalysis.
InEcotope’sstudiestheyfoundapproximately20%lossinenergysavingsbetweenthenetsavingsobservedfromthebillinganalysisandthetotalsavingsobservedfromtheoperationoftheDHP.Itislikelythattheconditionsthatwarrantthisincreaseinsavingsalsoexistinthelargerpilotpopulation,andasimilaradjustmentcouldbeapplied.Overall,itwouldappearthatmoredetailedunderstandingofthedistinctionbetweenthetotalsavingsobservedinthemeteringstudyandthesavingsderivedfromthebillinganalysisshouldbemoreclearlyunderstood.
4. EvaluatingbuildingcodesandmarkettoprovidelockoutofsecondaryHVAC.Usethermostat
stagecontrolswithERHVACequipment.
3.4 NEEA stakeholders are interested in WCT and Building Energy Management.
IntheNorthwest,BPA,publicpower,ETOandmetroutilities(multifamily)areperhapsthestakeholderthatwouldbenefitthemostfromfurtherresearchandprogressingettingWCTstoworkwithelectricspaceheating.InJanuary,MikeLublinerspenttimewithJanicePeterson,fromBPA’senergyefficiencygroup,atAHRIandASHRAEtalkingwithvendorsandconsideringtheopportunitiesforcommunicatingcontrolsforDHPandelectricresistanceHVAC.IOUsandETOhavepilotedprojectsusingNestandotherWCTs.Resultsareshowingpositivesigns,andBPATechnologyInnovationroadmapidentifiescontrolofsecondaryelectricheatasinconjunctionwiththeinstallationandoperationofDHPmini-splits.
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BPATIRoadmapControlofelectricresistancezonalheatersinconjunctionwithductlessmini-splitheatpumps.Withtheinstallationofductlessheatpumps(DHPs)inhomeswithzonalelectricheatthereisnocontroloftheinteractionofthetwosystems.Occupantsdonotgetclearsignalswhentheelectricresistancesystemisoperatingwhenitisnotneeded(i.e.whenDHPiscoolingonorwhenDHPcouldhandletheloadifnotbeingoutpoweredbyelectricresistance).Keyresearchquestions:
1. Aretherecommercialavailablecontrollersofelectricresistanceheatersthatcancommunicatewithothercontrols?
2. Aretherecommercialavailablecontrollerstheclearlyindicatewhentheyareonandhavetoturntheelectricresistanceheatoffatthecontroller?
3. WhatistheenergysavingspenaltywhenelectricresistanceandDHPsystemcompete?4. Whatcontrolstrategiesproducethemostenergysaving?5. Whatistechnicallypossible?
NortheastandCanadaOutsidetheNorthwest,thereareothermarketswithhighpercentagesofelectriczonalandFAFHVACequipment,suchasCanadaandNortheast.Someofthevendorswe’vediscussedinthispaperarelocatedandsellingintothesemarkets.NEEAcouldconnectwithsimilarorganizationsIthesemarketstoevaluatethetechnologiesandmanufacturersdiscussedinthispaper,e.g.,NEEP10.27%ofCanadianhouseholdsareelectricallyheatedandhavestandardsandcoderelatedtoLineVoltageThermostats(LVT)11.Severalprovincesusecommunicatingthermostatsanduseitforcapacityfocusedprograms.
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Ecotope BPA. (2012). Retrieved from BPA: https://www.bpa.gov/EE/Sectors/Residential/Documents/DHPx_Multifamily%20_Small_Commercial_Report_02-08-13.pdf
Ecotope Inc. (2014, February 19). NEEA. Retrieved from http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/e14-274-dhp-final-summary-report-(final).pdf?sfvrsn=8
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Navigant Market Assessment. (2015, June 2). NEEA. Retrieved from Residential Inveter-Driven Heat Pump Technical and Market Assessment: https://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential-inverter-driven-heat-pump-technical-and-market-assessment.pdf?sfvrsn=4
Navigant. (2015, June 2). NEEA. Retrieved from Residential Inverter-Driven Heat Pump International Market Characterization: https://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residential-inverter-driven-heat-pump-international-market-characterization.pdf?sfvrsn=4
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PacifiCorp. (2015). Retrieved from PacifiCorp: https://www.pacificpower.net/content/dam/pacific_power/doc/Residential/Save_Energy_Money/Washington_Home_Energy_Savings_Program_Planned_Modifications_10142015.pdf
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RLW Analytics. (2007). NEEA. Retrieved from Residential New Construction Characteristics and Practrices Study: http://neea.org/docs/reports/RESIDENTIANEWCONSTRUCTION5CC78C1BD226.pdf?sfv
RTF. (2016). Retrieved from RTF: http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/Behavior/meetings.asp Talpur, O. (2015, November). Retrieved from IHS Technology:
https://technology.ihs.com/551796/growth-projections-and-smart-thermostats-what-makes-sense
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