2016 10 26 Stoknes fra NPF kongress - Fossilfritt...
Transcript of 2016 10 26 Stoknes fra NPF kongress - Fossilfritt...
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Klima-psykologiHva skaper endring,
motivasjon og innovasjon?
Per Espen StoknesDirector
Center for Green GrowthNorwegian Business School
Per Espen Stoknes, BIknes BI
on twitter: @estoknes
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Klima-situasjonen nå
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historicalRCP2.6RCP8.5
Global average surface temperature change(a)
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Mean over2081–2100
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inspirasjon?
eller et stort gjesp?
Source: IPCC AR5
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SværtNoeLittIkke
Men hva med folk flest?
Norske svar:
Hvor bekymret er du for drivhuseffekt og klimaendringer?
Source: Ottar Hellevik, 2014, Ipsos MMI’s Survey ‘Norsk Monitor’,
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Sweden responses 2008-2015
Source: www.wspgroup.se Allmänheten och klimatförändringen 2015
Är du klimatmedveten? ”Ser du dig själv som en person som är klimatmedveten?”
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Nej, inte alls
Nej, knappast
Vet ej
Ja, kanske
Ja, absolut
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
International Responses 2014
“The climate change we’re currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.”
Source: Ipsos MORI Global Trends, 2014
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Det psykologiske klimaparadokset
Source: Cook et al 2013, http://www.skepticalscience.com/Leiserowitz,, Maibach et al (2015). Climate change in the American mind: March, 2015.
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Hvorfor? Sik
kerhe
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Bekymring
5 Defenses5 Solutions
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
climate message
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Distant in time …6.0
4.0
2.0
−2.0
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(o C)
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historicalRCP2.6RCP8.5
Global average surface temperature change(a)
RC
P2.
6 R
CP
4.5
RC
P6.
0 RC
P8.
5
Mean over2081–2100
1950 2000 2050 2100
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
in space …CLIMATE CHANGE 2013The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Distant socially…
Credit. http://inapcache.boston.com/
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in responsibility …
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Psychological distancing
reduces sense of urgency
reduces felt importance of issue; low personal risk
Sources: Leiserowitz, 2005, “American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?”. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1433–1442. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.xSpence and Pidgeon, 2010, “Framing and communicating climate change: The effects of distance and outcome frame manipulations,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 656–667, Oct..Spence, Poortinga, and Pidgeon, 2012, “The Psychological Distance of Climate Change: Psychological Distance of Climate Change,” Risk Analysis, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 957–972,.
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
For mye dommedag?
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leder til habituering, unngåelse og stereotyperSource: O’Neill and S. Nicholson-Cole, “‘Fear Won’t Do It” Science Communication, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 355–379, Jan. 2009. Painter, J. (2013). Climate change in the media. I. B. Tauris.
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Dissonance creates a demand for doubtTwo contradictory cognitions
1. “I have high emissions.”2. “CO2 leads to climate chaos.”
Dissonance
Modifyingone or bothcognitions
“My emissions are really quite
small”
Doubting one of them
“Climate is always changing”
Adding additi-onal cognitions
“I´ve installed solar, so my trip
to Thailand doesn’t matter”
Denying they arerelated
“There is noevidence linkingCO2 and climate
change”
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
attitudesdrivesbehavior
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
both to know and not-to-know
Denial a pejorative?
better: “resistance”?
Norgaard, 2011, Living in Denial
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Cars - express identity
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
identity overrides knowledge
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D. M. Kahan, 2014“Climate Science Communication and the Measurement Problem,” Advances in Political Psychology, vol. in press,.
Per Espen Stoknes, BIPPPPeeePPPPPeePPPPePPePPeePPerr rr Espen Stoknes, BI
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
How to break through the barriers ?
or maybe by-pass them?
We’ve enough reports
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
Make it social and local!
Use:• Social norms• Social media• Local issues• Flow & glow
- fra protest til fest
Per Espen Stoknes, BIPPePPePPePPePPPPPeerrrrrrr rrrrr EEEEEEsEsEEEEsssEEEsssEEEEsssEEssspeeeppeeepepppeeeepppeeeeppppeeeppp nnnnnnnnnnnnnnn StSStSttSSttSSSStttSSSttokokkkkkokokkkokokoookkookokokknnneeennneeennnneeennnneeennneeeesssssssss,ss,,ss,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBIIIIII
1. Use Power of Social Networks:
rooftop solar is contagious
Sources: Graziano, M., & Gillingham, K. (2014). Spatial patterns of solar photovoltaic system adoption: the influence of neighbors and the built environment. Journal of Economic Geography. http://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu036
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
1. Use Power of Social Networks:
Experimental studies to reduce domestic power consumption by comparing four groups:
1. for the sake of sustainability and the earth2. for future generations3. because it is profitable4. because your neighbours do it
Sources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360: Allcott, H., Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003
Per Espen Stoknes, BISources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360:
Allcott, H., Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003
“People don’t just want to conserve energy, they want to be acknowledged for conserving energy.” Robert Cialdini, Arizona S.U.
1. Use Power of Social Norms
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ducky.no synligggjøre handlinger!
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
2. Simple to choose climate friendly
Default two-sided printing:
15% less paper
If applied to all US offices 800 ktCO2e/year
equvialent to 150.000 cars
Sources: Egebark and M. Ekström, “Can Indifference Make the World Greener?,” IFN Working Paper No. 975, 2013.Pichert and Katsikopoulos, “Green defaults: Information presentation and pro-environmental behaviour,” J. of
Environmental Psychology, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 63–73, Mar. 2008
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Plate size reduced food waste by 19.5%Introducing signs reduced food waste by 20.5%
Kallbekken, S., & Sælen, H. (2013). “Nudging” hotel guests to reduce food waste as a win–win environmental measure. Economics Letters,
Per Espen Stoknes, BIPePeP rrr r EsEsEEE peepenn StStokokkokneen ss,ss, BBBBI
1.Original poster (control): ”Vegetarian”, ”Vegan”
4.”Mexican Style”as Wrap of the day
Vegetarian wrap sale under the different conditions
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14 %15 %
”Vegetarian” as Dish of the Day
“Mexican Style”
“Mexican Style”as Dish of the Day
“Vegetarian” (control)
Sigrid Møyner Hohle, 2014, Nudging to curb meat consumption
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
en god sirkel?
Atferd
Holdninger
Politisk Støtte
PolitikkSources: Stoknes (2015) p. 129-131, andTreuer, Weber, et al (2014). Weathering the Storm: Status Quo Adjustments Explain Successful Policy Implementation. Political Behavior,
Grønn ‘dulting’ som klimakommunikasjon
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
Per Espen Stoknes, BIpeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn StStSttStSStS okokokokokokoko nnneeeeeeneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenenes,sss,s,s,s,ss,s,s,s,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
“Too Costly!”
“Job-killing!!”
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Health!photo credit: Parrchristie via Flickr
photo credit: deadlyvibe.com.au
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
“Helse”-innramming
1. Heat-related sickness
2. Respiratory health problems,
3. Infectious disease,
4. Waterborne disease,
5. Food insecurity
6. Mental health problems.
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http://business.time.com/2012/10/31/hurricane-sandy-estimated-to-cost-60-billion/
Insurance !Henry Paulson,Michael R. Bloomberg Thomas F. Steyer:“it’s time to take out an insurance policy of our own.”
Sandy: ~60bn$
Per Espen Stoknes, BI 49
solarroadways?
Source: Solarroads
endless opporunities!
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
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It's real? It's us? Worried? Solvable?
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Yes No
The ‘Big 4’ Climate Beliefsit’s real — it’s us — it’s bad — it’s solvable
Source: Leiserowitz & al, Yale PCCC, Mar 2015, N=1,263, p. 27, 29, 30 ,39
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Grønn Vekst til 2030Grønnn VVeekst ttiil 2030
Det trengs enPPerPer EspeEspe Sn Stn Stoknekoknes Bs, BI
ny stor fortelling52
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Why smart, green growth?
• Because it’s profitable
• Because it’s more expensive to continue as today
• The stone age didn't end because of lack of stones
• The petroleum age won’t end because of lack of oil, but…
$€
£
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Fotavtrykk
Livskvalitet
Fortellinger om dype Forandringer
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Five new strategies
SocialSimple
Supportive
Story
Signals
CO2 avtrykk i nettbanken?
Gjøre signaler personlige
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Green GrowthWhat’s really needed
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
>1,000 ppm CO2eq
(172 scenarios, RCP8.5)
720–1,000 ppm (148 scenarios, RCP6)
580–720 ppm (144 scenarios, RCP4.5)
480–580 ppm (509 scenarios, no equivalent RCP)
430–480 ppm (116 scenarios, RCP2.6)
2014 estimate
Historical
emissions
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t C
O2 e
mis
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ns
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CO
2 y
r–1)
RCP8.5
3.2–5.4 °C
Relative to
1850 – 1900
RCP6
2.0–3.7 °C
RCP4.5
1.7–3.2 °C
RCP2.6
0.9–2.3 °CNet-negative global emissions
“Global Burning”
“A world we recognize”
-2% / yr
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Green Growth
while global GDP grows X 3
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COO2
- 2%
0 % år
GDP+ 3%}-5 % år
average change 2015-2050Randers, “Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of value added (‘GEVA’) — A corporate guide to voluntary climate action,” Energy Policy, vol. 48, pp. 46–55, Sep. 2012.
Genuine Green Growth (GGG) in Nordics
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GGG=5%paSwedenFinlandDenmarkNorwayOECD-total
Source: Stoknes (2016, in press), building on OECD Stats, Green Growth Indicators for 2000-2013, Production-based CO2 productivity, GDP per unit of energy-related CO2 emissions, US 2010 dollars per kilogram. SSB Preliminary figures for Norway 2014-2015
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
TON
NES
CO
2/
VA
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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5
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Operationsper unit of value added*
TARGET
Companies doing their fair share
62 Source: Tomra Corporate Responsibility report, 2012
-5%/yr
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
60
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140
1994
1996
1998
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2002
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2006
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2010
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exed
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wth
GVA per capita
GHG emissions per capita
Smart City Green Growth
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5% per year 1994-2010
Source: The New Clmate Economy Report, 2015
CopenhagenDenmark
Per Espen Stoknes, BIPerPerr EspeeEspeEspen Stn StStn oknkokneoknes, Bs, II
Konklusjoner:Er mennesker uunngåelig kortsiktige?
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1....Den rasjonelle klimakommunikasjon virker ikke
2.2...Mennesker vil handle langsiktig når betingelser er på plass: g g gg psosiale normer, støttende rammer, enkle handlinger, samlende fortellinger og signaler
3.3...Individuelle handlinger løser ikke klimaproblement, men g pde bygger nedenfor-og-opp støtte for strukturelle løsninger
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Learn more about climate psychology?
on twitter: @estoknes
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Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Exercise: Climate Conversations1. Let’s make pairs - two & two
2. Choose who is “A” and who is “B”
3. Think of a conversation you had or speech you gave to someone you hoped to engage in climate. But the conversation / reaction went very different from expected:
• Who was this? Where? When?
• What did you say - what did ‘they’ say?
• How did you feel? How did it end?
4. B starts to share for 10 mins, with A mainly listening deeply
5. Then it is A’s turn to share for 10 mins, while B mainly listens
6. Plenary discussion: What barriers / challenges / solutions were active?
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Den Vanskelige Klima-samtalen1. Gå sammen to og to
2. Velge hvem er “A” og hvem “B”
3. Tenk på en samtale du hadde eller presentasjon du ga til noen du håpte å engasjere i klima. Men samtalen ble forskjellig / noe annet enn du forventet
• Hvem var dette? Hvor? Når?
• Hva sa du? Hva var svaret du fikk?
• Hvordan følte du deg da? Hvordan endte det?
4. B begynner fortelle til A for 5 min, med A som mest lytter
5. Så A’s tur til å fortelle i 5 mins, mens B hovedsaklig lytter
6. Plenum; hvilke barrierer opplevde dere?
Per Espen Stoknes, BI
Gruppe-arbeid
• 5 min : individuelt arbeid; hvilke nye kommunikasjonstrategier kan ditt företag ta i bruk?
• Runde rundt bordet: presenterer ditt forslag, 2 min per person
• Avstemning: 2 stemmer hver -hva inspirerte meg?
1.Social: using social norms to engage employees
2.Supportive: frame climate change as an opportunity for better lives
3.Simple: use nudging for make it simple to choose climate friendly
4.Story: green growth is smart, quality of life, stewardship, rewilding
5.Signal: reporting signals of green growth progress