2015 SPRING F IRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES

30 DAY SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES

End of July 2014 April 28, 2015

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR

April 28, 2015

12 MONTH STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX

January through December 2014

6 MONTH PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION

Late October 2014 through Late April 2015

90 DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

Ending on April 26, 2015

PSA01 – 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES

PSA02 – 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES

PSA04 – 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES

U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK

Valid through July 31, 2015

PREDICTIVE SERVICES TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK –

ISSUED APRIL 23, 2015

CLIMATE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION POINTS

• Past Weather and Drought: 30 to 90 day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were below normal levels through much of the winter season of 2014-15 and early spring across portions of the Upper and Mid-Mississippi Valley as well as western New England. Abnormally dry conditions were indicated across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Iowa, northern Pennsylvania, and western New York.

 • Weather and Climate Outlook: Above normal temperatures are forecast over the

Great Lakes April into May spreading southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley in May. Drier than normal conditions overall are expected to persist into April across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley. The drier than normal conditions are expected to advance eastward into Ohio River Valley and western New England as May progresses. Drier than normal conditions overall may persist over parts of the Mississippi Valley into June 2015. If the warmer and drier than normal trends persist/develop over the aforementioned areas, periods of above normal fire potential will occur across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley April into May; possibly spreading eastward through May prior to green-up. Fire potential is forecast to return to normal across these areas as green-up occurs.

 • Fire Season Timing: The spring fire season may begin earlier than normal across

portions of the Great Lakes if the forecasted drier than normal conditions persist into the spring over these areas.

MAY 2015 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

JUNE 2015 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

JULY TO AUGUST 2015 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

COMMENTS/QUESTIONS?

S T E P H E N M A R I E NE A S T E R N A R E A F I R E W E AT H E R P R O G R A M

M A N A G E RO F F I C E : 6 5 1 - 2 9 3 - 3 3 6 6 C E L L : 4 0 2 - 2 5 0 - 7 8 4 4

E - M A I L : S T E P H E N _ M A R I E N @ N P S . G O V

EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES