2015 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
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Transcript of 2015 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
Facebook.com/CharlestonRealtors
The World Has Not Ended!
Stephen SliferNumberNomicswww.NumberNomics.com
The Highlights
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
2. Consumers/housing great. Manuf./trade weak.
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
2. Consumers/housing great. Manuf./trade weak.
3. Labor Market. At full employment.
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
2. Consumers/housing great. Manuf./trade weak.
3. Labor Market. At full employment.
4. Inflation poised to rise.
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
2. Consumers/housing great. Manuf./trade weak.
3. Labor Market. At full employment.
4. Inflation poised to rise.
5. Fed to raise rates very slowly.
The Highlights1. GDP growth moderate – 2.6% -- but uneven.
2. Consumers/housing great. Manuf./trade weak.
3. Labor Market. At full employment.
4. Inflation poised to rise.
5. Fed to raise rates very slowly.
6. No recession until 2019 at the earliest.
Consumption60%
Government15.0%
Trade10.0%
Investment15%
GDP Components
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
Jan 2000 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014
Consumer Sentiment
Recession
Consumer confidence has held up welldespite fears of slower growth in China.
No sign of slower spending.
$40.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$60.0
$65.0
$70.0
$75.0
$80.0
$85.0
$90.0
Consumer Net Worth
Net worth is at a record high level andclimbing at about a 5.0% pace.
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S&P 500
The stock market had a 10% correctionin September, recovered, and has declined8% in the early part of this year.
The trigger in both cases has been China.
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P/E Ratio -- S&P 500
But in both cases the stock markethad become overvalued.
Probably close to the bottom.
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-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
-2.7%
-1.7%
-0.7%
0.3%
1.3%
2.3%
Home Prices
Year-Over-Year (R)
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Home prices continue to climb which furtherbolsters net worth.
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
18.00
18.50 Financial Obligations Ratio
Trend
Consumer debt in relation to income isthe lowest it has been since the 1980’s.
We have the ability to pick up the paceof spending if we choose to do so.
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30-year Mortgage Rate
At 3.9% 30-year mortgage rates are close to the lowest in 50 years.
-8.0%
-6.0%
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-2.0%
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6.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
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10.0%A
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g 2
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Consumer Loans (%)
Consumer Loans (L)
Year-over-year (R)
Consumer loans becoming more easily attainable.
Risen 5.2% in last year. 7.0% in past three months.
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
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Ap
r 1
974
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974
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74
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975
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975
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75
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r 1
976
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g 1
976
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76
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r 1
977
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g 1
977
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77
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r 1
978
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g 1
978
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78
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r 1
979
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g 1
979
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79
Ap
r 1
980
Au
g 1
980
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80
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r 1
981
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g 1
981
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81
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r 1
982
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g 1
982
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82
Ap
r 1
983
Private Employment
Private Employ.
3-mo. average
Jobs rising by 200 thousand per month.
Jobs generate the income necessaryto boost spending.
$1.80
$2.30
$2.80
$3.30
$3.80
Gasoline Prices
Gasoline prices have declined 70% from theirpeak.
The money saved can be spent on othergoods and services.
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Consumption spending
Year-over-Year
Consumption Spending (%)
Consumer spending should continue toclimb at about a 3.0% pace during 2016.
What is the Outlook for Housing?
3,300
3,800
4,300
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5,300
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Existing Home Sales
The housing market is doing fine.
Existing home sales are close to thefastest pace thus face in the cycle(despite recent drop caused by“Know Before You Owe” rule).
-300
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
Apr2001
Apr2002
Apr2003
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Apr2005
Apr2006
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Apr2012
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Apr2015
Household FormationDuring and after the recession younger adults choseto live at home. Were not forming households.
But now they are venturing out on their own.
They need a place to live. It could be a houseor an apartment.
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3,800
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5,300
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Existing Home Sales
As a result, home sales have surged.
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Existing Homes -- Inventory
That pickup in sales has created a shortageof available properties for sales.
Demand continues to exceed supply.
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Home Prices
Year-Over-Year (R)
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Given strong demand, home prices shouldrise by about 5.0% this year.
4.5
5.5
6.5
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8.5
9.5
10.5
1980:Q1 1985:Q1 1990:Q1 1995:Q1 2000:Q1 2005:Q1 2010:Q1 2015-Q1
Rental Vacancy Rate
There is an acute shortage of rental properties available.
The vacancy rate for rental units is the lowest it hasbeen in 20 years!
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Shelter -- Rent
The shortage of available housing Is pushing up rents.
They are currently rising at 3.2% pace.
525
725
925
1125
1325
1525
1725
1925
Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016
Housing Starts
Trend
Housing Starts (Projected)
Builders have been trying to step up the paceof production but cannot find enough skilled workers.
Should continue to climb to perhaps 1.5 million by the end of 2016.
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Car & Truck SalesIn addition to home sales, car and trucksales have been soaring. Fastest pace in adecade. This is a big deal.
Houses and cars are the two biggest ticketitems in the consumer’s budget.
Consumption60%
Government15.0%
Trade10.0%
Investment15%
GDP Components
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Nonresidential Invest.
Year-over-year
Nonresidential Investment
Investment spending had been cruising alongat about an 8% pace until October of 2014.slowed dramatically
But oil prices collapsed which weakened spending in the oil patch.
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Crude Oil Spot Prices
Oil prices have dropped 70% from $107 per barrel in October 2014 to $33 per barrel.
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Rig Count
As oil prices dropped producers shut down 65% of the oil rigs in operation since October 2014.
They cut spending on oil drilling equipment and services,oil exploration and research.
Big hit on investment spending portion of the economy.
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Crude Oil Production
But despite fewer wells in operation, oilproduction has doubled since 2007.
That is a permanent increase in the supplyof oil which implies permanently lower prices
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Crude Oil Spot Prices
Oil prices will no longer trade between $80-110 per barrel.
New range should be between $30-60 per barrel.
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Crude Oil Spot Prices
The EIA expects oil prices to rise to around $50 per barrel in 2016. If so, then the drop in the energy sector is behind us.
But is that forecast right?
If so, the drop in oil prices is behind us.
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Nonresidential Invest.
Year-over-year
Nonresidential Investment
If the oil sector stabilizes we expect nonresidential investment to climb byabout 4.5% in 2016.
Consumption60%
Government15.0%
Trade10.0%
Investment15%
GDP Components
-800.000
-700.000
-600.000
-500.000
-400.000
-300.000
-200.000
20
07
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20
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20
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q3
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-Q1
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-Q3
Net Exports
The trade deficit has widened and should continue to widen in 2016
Two reasons for this.
5
6
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
China -- GDP %
Chinese growth has slowed from a double-digitpace a couple years ago to 6.8% last year and to6.3% in 2016.
We believe the bulk of the slowdown is behind us.
But markets worry that growth could be muchslower than anticipated. We are not so sure.
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
4700
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Shanghai Composite
Fear of extremely slow growth triggered a 40% drop in the Chinese stock market last summer and a renewed drop early this year.
But from October 2014 until June it rose 135%.
Its current level is 40% higher than where it was in October 2014.
A 40% increase in 15 months does not suggest that the Chinese economy is collapsing.
Also, Alibaba sold $10 billion in a single day.
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Jan2001
Jan2002
Jan2003
Jan2004
Jan2005
Jan2006
Jan2007
Jan2008
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
Jan2015
Jan2016
Trade-weighted Value of the Dollar
Second, the dollar has risen 20% during the course of the past 18 months.
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Jan2001
Jan2002
Jan2003
Jan2004
Jan2005
Jan2006
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Jan2013
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Jan2016
Trade-weighted Value of the Dollar
Makes U.S. exports more expensive for foreigners to buy.Makes foreign goods cheaper for Americans to buy.
Slower growth in exports, faster growth in imports.
Why has the dollar risen?
90.0
95.0
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105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Jan2001
Jan2002
Jan2003
Jan2004
Jan2005
Jan2006
Jan2007
Jan2008
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
Jan2015
Jan2016
Trade-weighted Value of the Dollar
Global nervousness is likely to continue.
Global GDP growth favors U.S. vs. rest of the world.
Rising U.S. interest rates and falling rates elsewhere will also cause the dollar to strengthen.
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Jan 2001 Jul 2002 Jan 2004 Jul 2005 Jan 2007 Jul 2008 Jan 2010 Jul 2011 Jan 2013 Jul 2014 Jan 2016
Trade-weighted Value of the Dollar
The dollar rose 20% in the past 18 months andis expected to climb an additional 7% this year.
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-700.000
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-300.000
-200.000
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q1
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q1
20
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14
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
16
-Q1
20
16
-Q3
Net Exports
If the dollar strengthens a bit more:
The deficit for next exports subtracted 0.7%from GDP growth in 2015.
Should subtract 0.3% from growth in 2016.
Consumption60%
Government15.0%
Trade10.0%
Investment15%
GDP Components
-17.0%
-12.0%
-7.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
13.0%
Federal Government
Year-over-year
Federal Government
Federal government spending shouldbe little changed in the quarters ahead.
Consumption60%
Government15.0%
Trade10.0%
Investment15%
GDP Components
2015-2016 Forecasts
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%
The days of 3.5% GDP Growth are Over –
2.0% More Likely
Economic Speed Limit
Growth in Labor Force + Productivity
Economic Speed Limit
Labor Force + Productivity = Speed Limit1990’s
1.5% + 2.0% = 3.5%
Economic Speed Limit
Labor Force + Productivity = Speed Limit1990’s
1.5% + 2.0% = 3.5%
20150.5% + 1.5% = 2.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Jan
19
90
Jan
19
91
Jan
19
92
Jan
19
93
Jan
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Jan
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01
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11
Jan
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12
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Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Labor Force
In the 1990’s the labor force grew by about 1.5%.
Today is growing by 0.5%. Why?
The baby boomers are retiring.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1990-Q1 1993-Q1 19946Q1 1999-Q1 2002-Q1 2005-Q1 2008-Q1 2011-Q1 2014-Q1
Nonfarm Productivity
In the 1990’s the productivity grew by about 2.0%.
Today is barely growing. Not clear why so slow.
Longer-term 1.5%?
Economic Speed Limit
Labor Force + Productivity = Speed Limit1990’s
1.5% + 2.0% = 3.5%
20150.5% + 1.5% = 2.0%
Don’t Worry About SlowerGrowth in Productivity
Technology Gains Will Keep Economy Going
Technology Gains Will Keep Economy Going
1. Oil Industry2. Uber – 2010, 58 countries, 300 cities3. The Cloud4. Apps5. Bio-technology6. Nano-technology7. 3-D Printing
Private Sector is Doing Just Fine
Our Biggest Business is Government
Our Biggest Business is Government
It Refuses to Change
The Genie Is Out of the Bottle
Embrace Technology -- Thrive
Fight It -- Struggle
2015-2016 Forecasts
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%
Let’s Talk Jobs
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Ap
r 1
974
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g 1
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74
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g 1
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75
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r 1
976
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g 1
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76
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81
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g 1
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82
Ap
r 1
983
Private Employment
Private Employ.
3-mo. average
Jobs rising by 200 thousand per month.
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11.0 Unemployment Rate
Full Employment
The unemployment rate has fallenmore rapidly than expectedand now stands at 5.0%.
But Yellen says this rate is misleading.
It does not include people who are“underemployed”.
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Discouraged Workers
“Discouraged workers” are peoplewho have been searching for a job forso long that they have given up looking.
Higher than it was at beginning of recession.
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Part Time - Economic Reasons
Also includes people who are workingpart time but would like a full time position.
Also higher than it was at beginning of recession.
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17.0
Broad vs. Official Unemploy. Rate
Yellen says we are supposed to be watchingthe broad unemployment rate which includesall these people.
It is at 9.9%; official rate is at 5.0%.
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Broad vs. Official Unemploy. Rate
The broad rate is always much higher thanthe official rate.
If full employment for the official rate is 5.0%then full employment for the broad measureshould be about 9.0%.
The broad measure is at 9.9%.
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Broad vs. Official Unemploy. Rate
Full Employment
Full Employment
By midyear both unemploymentrates will be below full employment.
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Job Openings and Hires
Openings
Hires
Job openings are rising fast.
Hires are rising but more slowly
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115.0%
Dec2000
Dec2001
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Dec2007
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Dec2012
Dec2013
Dec2014
Openings /Hires RatioThe ratio of openings/hires has never been higher.
Plenty of jobs available.
But the unemployed and underemployed workers that are available do not have the skill set thatemployers today are seeking.
Can only be solved by education. Takes time.
2015-2016 Forecasts
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%Unemploy. Rate 5.6% 5.0% 4.6%
Why Will Inflation Accelerate?
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Broad vs. Official Unemploy. Rate
Full Employment
Full Employment
With the economy at full employmentlabor costs have begun to rise.
Firms have to poach workers from other firmsvia higher wages or more attractive benefits.
Wages represent 2/3 of a firm’s total cost.
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Employment Cost IndexEmploy. Cost Index
Year-over-Year
The employment cost index has climbedfrom 1.6% a year ago to 2.0% and ispoised to climb further.
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Shelter -- RentThe shortage of available housing Is pushing up rents.
They are currently rising at 3.2% pace.
Rents are 1/3 of the entire CPI.
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Commodities
Non-fuel
Commodity Prices -- All vs. Non-Fuel
Commodity prices are the remaining 1/3 of a firm’s costs.
While oil prices have been falling, commodity pricesother than oil – copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, beef, fish--have also been falling.
Partly caused by slower growth in China.
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6
CPIEx Food & Energy
CPI -- Projected
CPI getting upward boost because of rising wagesand rents, partly offset by falling commodity prices.
If oil prices level off, inflation is poised to rise.
2015-2016 Forecasts
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%Unemploy. Rate 5.6% 5.0% 4.6%Inflation Rate 1.6% 2.2% 2.4%
What Is the Fed Going to Do?
The Fed Will Raise Rates Rise Slowly
In Conclusion
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%Unemploy. Rate 5.6% 5.0% 4.6%Inflation Rate 1.6% 2.2% 2.4%Fed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.3% 1.5%
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Fed Funds Rate -- ProjectedIf the Fed raises rates slowly it will takeuntil late 2018 for rates to be “neutral”.
How high is “neutral”?
A “neutral rate” should be about 3.5%.
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Real Funds Rate
If Fed has an inflation target of 2.0%, a neutral ratewould be 1.5% higher than that or 3.5%.
Over the past 50 years the funds ratehas averaged 1.5% higher than inflation.
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Fed Funds Rate -- Projected
If the Fed begins to raise rates in Decemberand raises rates slowly thereafter it will takeuntil late 2018 for rates to be “neutral”.
A “neutral rate” should be about 3.5%.
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15.0
20.0 Fed Funds Rate
The U.S. economy has never goneinto recession unless the funds ratehas been higher than “neutral”.
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Fed Funds Rate -- Projected
If the Fed begins to raise rates in Decemberand raises rates slowly thereafter it will takeuntil late 2018 for rates to be “neutral”.
Earliest date for a recession? 2019?
The longest expansion on record
In Conclusion
2014 2015 2016GDP 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%Unemploy. Rate 5.6% 5.0% 4.6%Inflation Rate 1.6% 2.2% 2.4%Fed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.3% 1.5%10-year Note 2.2% 2.2% 2.8%30-year Mortgage 3.9% 4.0% 4.5%
Not Too Shabby