2015 Market Outlook - - Overviewamarillo.tamu.edu/files/2010/11/2015-Market-Outlook... · 2015. 8....
Transcript of 2015 Market Outlook - - Overviewamarillo.tamu.edu/files/2010/11/2015-Market-Outlook... · 2015. 8....
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Hansford County Producers MeetingSpearman, TexasJanuary 26, 2015Presented By:
Dr. Steve AmossonRegents FellowProfessor and Extension Economist
2015 Market Outlook - -Overview
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Presentation Outline
• Input Prices
• Cost of Production & Breakeven Prices
• Feed grain outlook
• Wheat outlook
• Cattle fundamentals
• Outlook Summary and Closing Comments
• Farm Program update
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2015 Feed Grains Projected Profitability
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$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180$190$200$210
Irrigated Corn Costs of Production 2010-2015 (estimated)
Seed(per acre)
Fertilizer(per acre)
Insecticide(per acre)
Herbicide(per acre)
IrrigationLabor
Cash Rent& Leases
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Crop Profitability:What will work in 2015?
• Making the Decision• Returns over Variable Cost• Variable Cost – Out-of-Pocket Expenses
Directly Related to Producing a Crop• Seed• Fertilizer• Chemicals• Irrigation
• Returns over Total Cost• Return on Investment
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Estimated Costs and Returns for 2015 Primary Irrigated Crops in Texas High Plains
Corn Cotton Sorghum Wheat SoybeanCorn
SilageSorghum
Silage
Prod/Ac 225 bu 1100 lbs 75 cwt 65 bu 60 bu 27 ton 21 ton
Price $4.37$0.58/ 160 $7.00 $6.02 $9.00 $40.30 $36.30
GrazingIncome - - - $68 - - -GrossReturns $983 $771 $525 $459 $540 $1088 $762Ac-In Applied* 22 12 14 15 14 20 13VariableCosts $718 $624 $409 $369 $385 $868 $527ReturnsOver VC $265 $147 $116 $91 $155 $220 $235
*Ac-In Priced at $4.30/mcf assuming 1 mcf = 1 ac-in
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Estimated 2015 Corn returns over variable cost for various yields & prices
Yield: 170 200 225 240 260
Price$/bu
bushels
Returns over Variable Costs ($)
3.50 (99.29) (7.49) 69.01 114.91 176.11
4.00 (14.29) 92.51 181.51 234.91 306.11
4.37 48.61 166.51 264.76 323.71 402.31
4.85 130.21 262.51 372.76 438.91 527.11
5.35 215.21 362.51 485.26 558.91 657.11
Estimated 2015 Sorghum returns over variable cost for various yields & prices
Yield: 45 60 75 90 105
Price$/cwt
cwtReturns over Variable Costs ($)
5.60 (133.82) (61.37) 11.08 83.53 155.98
6.40 (97.82) (13.37) 71.08 155.53 239.98
7.00 (70.82) 22.63 116.08 209.53 302.98
7.80 (34.82) 70.63 176.08 281.53 386.98
8.60 1.18 118.63 236.08 353.53 470.98
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Estimated 2015 Wheat returns over variable cost for various yields and prices
Yield: 45 55 65 75 85
Price$/bu
bushels
Returns over Variable Costs ($)
5.00 (63.36) (19.46) 24.44 68.34 112.24
5.50 (40.86) 8.04 56.94 105.84 154.74
6.02 (17.46) 36.64 90.74 144.84 198.94
6.50 4.14 63.04 121.94 180.84 239.74
7.00 26.64 90.54 154.44 218.34 282.24
Estimated 2015 Cotton returns over variable cost for various yields & prices
Yield: 500 800 1100 1400 1700
Price$ / lb
lbsReturns over Variable Costs ($)
0.50 (200.31) (70.87) 58.57 188.00 317.44
0.55 (175.31) (30.87) 113.57 258.00 402.44
0.58 (160.31) (6.87) 146.57 300.00 453.44
0.65 (125.31) 49.13 223.57 398.00 572.44
0.70 (100.31) 89.13 278.57 468.00 657.44
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Estimated 2015 Corn Silage returns over variable cost for various yields & prices
Yield: 18 22 27 32 38
Price$/bu
tons
Returns over Variable Costs ($)
30 (249.09) (164.29) (58.29) 47.71 174.91
35 (159.09) (54.29) 76.71 207.71 364.91
40 (69.09) 55.71 220.71 367.71 554.91
45 20.91 165.71 346.71 527.71 744.91
50 110.91 275.71 481.71 687.71 934.91
Estimated 2015 Sorghum Silage returns over variable cost for various yields & prices
Yield: 12 16 21 26 30
Price$/cwt
tons
Returns over Variable Costs ($)
25 (147.94) (83.14) (2.14) 78.86 143.66
30 (87.94) (3.14) 102.86 208.86 293.66
36 (15.94) 92.86 235.86 364.86 473.66
40 32.06 156.86 312.86 468.86 593.66
45 92.06 236.86 417.86 589.86 743.66
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Cotton Sorghum Wheat Sunflowers
Production/Ac 400 lbs 25 cwt 20 bu 10 cwt
Price $0.58 / 160 $7.00 $6.02 $17.30
Grazing Income - - $36.50 -
Gross Returns $280.29 $175.00 $156.90 $173.00
Variable Costs $305.42 $144.09 $136.41 $161.68
Returns Above VC ($25.13) $30.91 $20.49 $11.32
Estimated Costs and Returns for 2015 Primary Dryland Crops in Texas High Plains
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2015 Feed Grain Fundamentals
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World Days of Use on Hand, 12/10/2014
72
020406080
100120140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
115
020406080
100120140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
Corn
RiceWheat
Soybeans
Cotton: 350 day supply
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World Per Capita Grain Use
384
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice , rye, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat
kg
USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, PSD, 12/18/2014
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-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
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2004
2005
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2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies
World Economic, Outlook, October 2014: http://www.imf.org
Percent Change
Global Economic Growth
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U.S. Corn: Disappearance
0100020003000400050006000700080
/81
81/8
282
/83
83/8
484
/85
85/8
686
/87
87/8
888
/89
89/9
090
/91
91/9
292
/93
93/9
494
/95
95/9
696
/97
97/9
898
/99
99/0
000
/01
01/0
202
/03
03/0
404
/05
05/0
606
/07
07/0
808
/09
09/1
010
/11
11/1
212
/13
13/1
414
/15
Mill
ion
Bus
hels
Feed & Residual
Exports FSI Minus Fuel
Source: Feed Yearbook, USDA/ERS, WASDE, USDA 2013/14 preliminary; 2014/15 projected
Fuel
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Corn U.S. Supply/Demand (million bushels)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15SupplyBeginning StksProduction
1,70812,447
1,12812,360
98910,755
82113,925
1,33114,216
Total Supply 14,182 13,517 11,904 14,782 15,547DisappearanceDomestic UseExports
11,2211,834
10,9851,543
10,353730
11,6291,917
11,9201,750
Total Use 13,055 12,528 11,083 13,546 13,670Ending StksCarryover/Use (%)Avg. Farm Price
1,1288.645.18
9897.906.22
8217.416.89
1,2369.134.46
1,87713.733.65
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Corn, SAFP and Stocks to Use Ratio 1969/70-2014/15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2012
20132007 2008
2011
2009
2010
2014
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Sorghum U.S. Supply/Demand (million bushels)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15SupplyBeginning StksProduction
41346
27214
23248
15389
34408
Total Supply 387 242 280 404 442DisappearanceDomestic UseExports
208152
15663
18976
158212
175230
Total Use 359 219 265 370 405Ending StksCarryover/Use (%)Avg. Farm Price
277.525.02
2310.515.99
155.666.33
349.194.28
379.143.50
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Feed Use
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Feed and Residual Use
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013
Dairy Cattle on Feed Other Cattle HogsPoultry Other Livestock Feed per GCAU Plus DDGs
GCAU mil mt/GCAU
USDA Feed Grain Database and Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, December 19, 2014
37% Cattle28% Pork34% Poultry
Year to Year Change: GCAU: +2.7%Feed/GCAU: +3.5%
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Cattle on Feed1,000+ capacity feedlots
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Latest Data: October 2014
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Iowa State Hog Inventory & Price Projections
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Ethanol Demand
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One gallon = 3.87 liters
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$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Corn Natural Gas Other VC FC Revenue
Ethanol Profitability per gallonAgricultural Marketing Resource Center, Iowa State Universityhttp://www.agmrc.org/renewable_energy/
Oct 2014 revenue and prices (change from previous month): profit $0.03/gal (-91%); ethanol $1.56/gallon (-15%);corn $3.26/bu (-2%); natural gas $7.94/1000 ft3 (-0%); ddgs $103/ton (-15%)
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U.S. Ethanol Production
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http://www.ren21.net/REN21Activities/GlobalStatusReport.aspx
“144 countries have defined renewable energy targets”
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US ethanol exports in November reached 344 million liters (90.8 million gallons), the highest volume seen so far in 2014 and the highest since December 2011, when more than 600 million liters left the country, US Census Bureau data showed Wednesday.
2014 U.S. Ethanol Exports
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Exports
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Corn Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
US Foreign
Million bu
WASDE 11/8/2013
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Corn Exports as % of World Share1972 - 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Perc
ent
U.S. Share
EU-27 Share
Note: From 1972/73 – 1998/99 is EU-15. USDA revised to EU-27 in 1999/00. USDA revised to EU-28 in 2014/15.
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Corn: Major Exporters2013/14 and 2014/15(million metric tons)
48.70
24.6515.50
16.79
21.503.00Brazil
U.S.
Argentina
Other44.45
19.84
12.00
14.35
19.502.20
Other
Argentina
Brazil
2013/14 (estimated) Total = 130.14
2014/15 (projected) Total = 112.34
U.S.
FSU-12 FSU-12
S. Africa S. Africa
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Sorghum: Major Importers2013/14 and 2014/15(million metric tons)
0.104
1.003
0.162
0.150
2.175 0.075
4.161
0.250
1.200
0.100
0.250
1.3900.200
5.000
Other
Japan
2013/14 (estimated) Total = 7.830
2014/15 (projected) Total = 8.390
Other
Mexico
Japan
Chile
Mexico
Chile
Sudan Sudan
Columbia Columbia
China
China
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Corn and Soybean Harvested Area in Brazil and Argentina Combined
020406080
100120140160180200
1980
/198
119
81/1
982
1982
/198
319
83/1
984
1984
/198
519
85/1
986
1986
/198
719
87/1
988
1988
/198
919
89/1
990
1990
/199
119
91/1
992
1992
/199
319
93/1
994
1994
/199
519
95/1
996
1996
/199
719
97/1
998
1998
/199
919
99/2
000
2000
/200
120
01/2
002
2002
/200
320
03/2
004
2004
/200
520
05/2
006
2006
/200
720
07/2
008
2008
/200
920
09/2
010
2010
/201
120
11/2
012
2012
/201
320
13/2
014
2014
/201
5
Soybeans Corn
Million acres
2014/15—combined all time record high; soybeans +4 mil (+3.2%), corn -2 mil (-4.5%)PSD, 9/24/2014
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U.S. Corn Export Sales Commitments, 2014/15 MY
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U.S. Sorghum Export Sales Commitments, 2014/15 MY
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U.S. Dollar Index 1-23-15
Up 17%
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2015 FeedgrainProduction
Possibilities
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Sorghum: Area Planted andHarvested, 2006 – 2014(1,000 acres)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kansas
Nebraska
Texas
U.S
2750
370
2000
6522
2800
350
2750
7712
3000
270
3500
8404
2700
210
2700
6599
2350
140
1900
5369
2600
130
1550
5451
2500
120
2350
6259
3100
285
3000
8061
2850
170
2600
7213
2500
240
1300
4937
2650
240
2450
6792
2800
210
3050
7312
2550
135
2050
5502
2250
80
1700
4806
2000
90
1150
3945
2100
60
1900
4995
2800
140
2300
6530
2650
120
2100
6174
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2013 estimated, 2014 forecasted; 2014 intended planting as indicated by reports from farmers.
Source: USDA Planted Acreage Report, 6/30/14; Prospective Plantings 3/28/14; WASDE and Crop Production, 12/10/14, Annual Crop Production, January 2014
Planted 1/ Harvested
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Corn: Area Planted andHarvested, 2007 – 2014(1,000 acres)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Nebraska
Texas
U.S
14200
13200
3900
9400
2150
93527
13300
12100
3850
8800
2300
85982
13600
12000
4100
9150
2350
86382
13400
12600
4850
9150
2300
88192
14100
12600
4900
9850
2050
91936
14200
12800
4700
10000
1850
97291
13600
12000
4300
9950
2350
95365
13600
11900
4050
9300
2250
90885
13900
13050
3680
9200
1970
86520
12800
11900
3630
8550
2030
78570
13300
11800
3860
8850
1960
79490
13050
12400
4650
8850
2080
81446
13700
12400
4200
9600
1470
83879
13700
12250
3950
9100
1550
87365
13100
11800
4000
9550
2000
87668
13200
11700
3700
8750
1930
83097
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2013 estimated, 2014 forecasted; 2014 intended planting as indicated by reports from farmers.
Source: USDA Planted Acreage Report, 6/30/14; Prospective Plantings 3/28/14; WASDE and Crop Production, 12/10/14, Annual Crop Production, January 2014
Planted 1/ Harvested
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U.S. Corn Acres
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dec-14
FSA Planted, Failed, Prevented USDA Planted
Average USDA:FSA =101%
103%
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U.S. Planted Acres
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton Sorghum
Million acres
Corn: 88 million, down 3.2%Soybeans: 84 million, down 0.2%Wheat: 56 million, -1.4% Cotton: 9.8 million, -9.3%Sorghum: 7.5 million, +4.2%
USDA, 12/18/2014
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CornU.S. Supply/Demand
Item 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Planted Acreage (Mil. Acs.)Harvested Acreage (Mil. Acs.)Yield (Bushels)
78.3070.60
149.10
93.5086.50
150.70
86.0078.60
153.90
86.4079.50
164.70
88.2081.40
152.80
91.9084.00
147.20
97.3087.40
123.10
95.4087.70
158.80
90.9083.10
171.00
Supply - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Million Bushels - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Beginning StocksProductionImports
1,96710,531
12
1,30413,038
20
1,62412,092
14
1,67313,092
8
1,70812,447
28
1,12812,360
29
98910,755
160
82113,925
36
1,23614,216
25
Total Supply 12,510 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,904 14,782 15,547
Disappearance
Feed and ResidualFood, Seed & IndustrialExports
5,5913,4902,125
5,9134,3872,437
5,1825,0251,849
5,1255,9611,980
4,7956,4261,834
4,5576,4281,543
4,3156,038
730
5,1326,4971,917
5,3756,5451,750
Total Use 11,207 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,083 13,546 13,670
Ending Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236 1,877
Carryover/Use (%) 11.64 12.75 13.88 13.07 8.64 7.90 7.41 9.13 13.73
Average Farm Price ($/Bu.) 3.04 4.20 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.65
2013/14 estimated; 2014/15 projected; numbers may not add due to rounding; SOURCE: USDA/NASS/ERS/WASDE
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U.S. Corn Yields
164.7173.4
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Yield Trend
Bushels per acre
WASDE, 12/10/2014
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Corn Yield, % Deviation From Trend
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
WASDE, 12/10/2014
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Area and Yield Needed to Produce 13.745 billion bushel cropUSDA Long-range projections: December 18, 2014
140142144146148150152154156158160162164166168170172174176178180
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
Bushels per acre
Planted acres, millions
Add to Ending Stocks
Reduce Ending Stocks
-440 mil
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This and That
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Corn to Soybean Price Ratio
• Normal or considered neutral 2.5
• Current ratio: 9.60/4.17 = 2.30
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El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, 18 December 2014http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
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Corn
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Dec. 2015 Corn Contract
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December Corn Futures and 2015 Marketing Plan
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
9/2/
2014
9/15
/201
49/
26/2
014
10/9
/201
410
/22/
2014
11/4
/201
411
/17/
2014
12/1
/201
412
/12/
2014
12/2
5/20
141/
7/20
151/
20/2
015
1/31
/201
52/
11/2
015
2/24
/201
53/
9/20
153/
20/2
015
4/2/
2015
4/15
/201
54/
28/2
015
5/11
/201
55/
22/2
015
5/31
/201
56/
9/20
156/
18/2
015
6/27
/201
57/
6/20
157/
15/2
015
7/24
/201
58/
2/20
158/
11/2
015
8/20
/201
58/
29/2
015
9/7/
2015
9/16
/201
59/
25/2
015
10/4
/201
510
/13/
2015
10/2
2/20
1510
/31/
2015
11/9
/201
511
/18/
2015
11/2
7/20
1512
/6/2
015
12/1
5/20
15
20% 20% 20% 20% 20%¢/bu Planting
IntentionsGrain StocksEarly season
crop conditionsWeather outlook
South American crop conditionsBattle for Acres
Planting Intentions
Tassel and
August Crop
Report
Cash sales at harvest
Acreage Report/Grain Stocks
Weather
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2015 Wheat Fundamentals
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World Days of Use on Hand, 12/10/2014
72
020406080
100120140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
115
020406080
100120140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Days of Use 20-yr avg 10-yr avg
Corn
RiceWheat
Soybeans
Cotton: 350 day supply
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Wheat Production, Major Countries
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
Argentina Australia Canada China EU 28 FSU-12 India Pakistan US2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
mmt
USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, 12/10/2014
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World Wheat Supply, Use, Ending Stocks, and Exports 2009 - 2014
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Supply Use EndingStocks
Exports
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Ton
s
200920102011201220132014
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World Wheat Exports 2013/14 - 2014/15(million metric tons)
20.73
23.24
18.62
32.01
31.93
2.20
37.10
2013/14 (estimated) Total = 165.83
2014/15 (projected) Total = 159.19
Argentina
Other
Canada
AustraliaEU-28
U.S.
19.78
23.00
17.50
25.1730.00
6.00
37.74
Australia
Canada
Argentina
EU-28
U.S.
Other FSU-12 FSU-12
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U.S. Wheat Exports, 1980 - 2014
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Mill
ion
Bus
hels
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International Grain Council –January 22, 2015
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WheatU.S. Supply/Demand(million bushels)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
SupplyBeginning StksProductionImports
9762,207
97
8621,999
112
7432,252
123
7182,135
169
5902,026
180Total Supply 3,279 2,974 3,118 3,021 2,796
DisappearanceDomestic UseExports
1,1281,289
1,1801,051
1,3881,012
1,2551,176
1,184925
Total Use 2,417 2,231 2,400 2,431 2,109
Ending StksCarryover/Use (%)Avg. Farm Price
86235.675.70
74333.317.24
71829.927.77
59024.276.87
68732.586.10
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Wheat: Area Planted andHarvested, 2007 – 2014(1,000 acres)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kansas
N. Dakota
Oklahoma
Texas
U.S
10400
8595
5900
6200
60460
9600
9230
5600
5800
63193
9300
8680
5700
6400
59168
8400
8530
5300
5700
53593
8800
6800
5100
5300
54409
9400
7840
5400
5700
55294
9500
6105
5600
6300
56236
9600
7960
5300
6000
56822
8600
8405
3500
3800
50999
8900
8640
4500
3300
55699
8800
8415
3500
2450
49893
8000
8400
3900
3750
47619
7900
6590
3200
1900
45705
9000
7765
4300
2900
48758
8450
6025
3400
2350
45332
8800
7490
2800
2250
46381
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2013 estimated, 2014 forecasted; 2014 intended planting as indicated by reports from farmers.
Source: USDA Planted Acreage Report, 6/30/14; Prospective Plantings 3/28/14; WASDE and Crop Production, 1/12/15, Annual Crop Production, January 2015
Planted 1/ Harvested
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U.S. Wheat Yield, 1980 - 2014
25
30
35
40
45
50
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Bu.
/Ac.
y = 0.3184x + 33.882015 est. = 45.34
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Winter Wheat Crop Condition Index
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Wheat
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July 15 KC Wheat
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Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans Speculative Investment
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High and LowJuly KCBT Wheat Prices1976-2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Earlier J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
# of
Occ
urre
nces
High Low
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2015 Cattle Fundamentals
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-0.1 Percent2014 = 9.2 Million Head
-2 Percent2014 = 29 Million Head
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BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
4045505560657075808590
JAN
APR JUL
OCT
Thou. Head
.Avg-200711
2012
2013
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HEIFER SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
135
145
155
165
175
185
195
205
215
JAN
APR JUL
OCT
Thou. Head
.Avg-200711
2012
2013
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Cattle on Feed Report 1-23-15
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Supply Factors
• Continued Tight Supplies– Calves, feeder cattle, cows
• Herd Expansion?– Sharply lower beef cow slaughter– Expect more heifers held back– Expect cow herd growth
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Demand
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1009991 89 86 84
75 73 75 7782 82 83 85
9287
83 8378
74 75 76 78 7987
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Index Value
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXThird Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
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Demand
• Surprisingly Strong in 2014– More than expected
• Aided by High Pork and Poultry Prices• Growing Economy
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Interesting Stuff
• Feeder Cattle vs Fed Cattle– Feeders too high
• Calf Slaughter– Contribute to more on feed
• Record High Dressed Weights• More Choice• More Formula Pricing
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Ag Center Feeder Matrix
Projected profitability analysis for feeders being placed on feed January
25th
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BEEF GRADED CHOICEAs a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
JAN
APR JUL
OCT
Percent
.Avg-200711
2012
2013
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Percent
STEERS/HEIFERS SOLD BY TRANSACTIONTexas, Oklahoma & New Mexico
Weekly
Negotiated
NegotiatedGrid
Formula
ForwardContract
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Feed Grains Summary • Abundant carryover stocks both domestically &
worldwide will limit upside• Demand is and will be increasing but how much???
– Feed use - - will be up but limited– Ethanol use and exports will be relatively flat due to the strength
of the dollar• Basis maybe weakening slightly due to lower fuel/oil prices• Loss of Direct Farm Program Payments• Weather is starting off in a normal pattern• Wildcards
– Planted acreage– Weather
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Wheat Summary • Abundant carryover stocks both domestically &
worldwide will limit upside• Demand appears to be at best flat due to dependence
on exports and increased feed grain supplies– Increased feed grain supplies worldwide– Strength of the dollar
• Basis maybe Strengthening slightly due to lower fuel/oil prices
• Currently crop condition and projected weather patterns suggest normal production
• Really need something good to happen!
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Summary & Grain EWAGS
• Estimated breakevens– Corn …….. $4.05/bu. – Sorghum…….. Irrigated $4.24/bu. & Dryland $4.42/bu.– Wheat…….. Irrigated - VC $4.42/bu. & Dryland $4.87/bu.
Irrigated - TC $6.95/bu. & Dryland $7.46/bu.• Harvest prices – normal weather
– Corn ………. $4.15/bushel– Sorghum….. 90 – 95% the price of corn– Wheat……… $5.50/bushel
• It is going to be a tricky year to make a profit so you need to:– Use a sharp pencil in determining your crop mix– Take advantage of marketing opportunities when they present
themselves
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Cattle Fundamental Summary
• Continued tight supplies• Herd expansion appears to be starting• Beef demand was strong in 2014 supported by
high hog and poultry prices• Beef production will fall only slightly in 2015
– Heavier weights & reduced calf slaughter• Expect increases in swine & poultry production to
dampen further increases in beef prices as the year unfolds
• May see feeder prices falling somewhat
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11-1300 7-800 5-6002013 125.88 150.69 172.15
2014 I 146.34 171.45 201.23II 147.82 189.72 225.72
III 158.49 217.95 250.76IV 165.59 229.63 272.21
2015 I 162-166 222-228 266-272II 162-167 224-230 270-277
III 159-164 223-230 263-272IV 161-167 218-226 256-265
2016 I 162-168 218-227 260-273II 162-169 220-230 264-277
III 159-166 218-228 258-272IV 158-168 212-225 251-266
Projected Prices for 2013-2016
Texas Combined Auction for 5-600 and 7-800
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Farm Program Update
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Farm Program Sign-up Timeline
Annual Sign-upAnnual Sign-up
Fix Planted Acres with FSA
Fix Planted Acres with FSA
Reallocate Bases & Update YieldsReallocate Bases & Update Yields
Choice Between ARC & PLCChoice Between ARC & PLC
August 2014
June2015Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May
17th 31st
Mid Summer??29th 27th
Dairy Margin Protection
Program for 2014 and 2015
Dairy Margin Protection
Program for 2014 and 2015
2nd 28th
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• 348 Farms have been Analyzed
• Observations by Major Crops – Corn (124)– Sorghum (251)– Wheat (328)– Other Crops (54)
• Crop Observations by Area– Eastern Panhandle (358)– Western Panhandle (399)
Preliminary Decision Aid Results
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Base Acre Reallocation Results
33%
67%
Total Farm Base Acre Reallocation Decision
Yes ReallocateDo Not Reallocate
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Yield Analysis Results
53%47%
Texas Panhandle Yield Update Decision for Corn
UpdateDo Not Update
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Yield Analysis Results
33%
67%
Texas Panhandle Yield Update Decision for Sorghum
UpdateDo Not Update
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Yield Analysis Results
27%
73%
Texas Panhandle Yield Update Decision for Wheat
UpdateDo Not Update
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Average Payment Per Base Acre
$209 $192
$27 $50 $43
$164
$84
$31
$133
$655
$47$71
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
ARC PLC
Average Payment Per Base Acre
Corn
Wheat
Sorghum
Soybeans
Peanuts
Sunflowers
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AFPC Decision Aid
The tool is available at: https://afpc.tamu.edu or
https://usda.afpc.tamu.edu
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REMEMBER
• FECES HAPPENS!!
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2015 High Plains Crop Spreadsheet Analyzer is Available
• High Plains Crop Spreadsheet Analyzer– Includes current crop budgets– Ability to customize budgets to fit your operation– Compares relative profitability of cropping choices– Evaluate crop-share lease agreements– Value of irrigation– Considers Water District Limits***Project funding provided by the Texas Corn Producers Board***
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Educational programs of Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without regard to race, color, sex,
disability, religion, age or national origin.