2015 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY October 29, 2015 Oscar Wei, Senior Economist.

2015 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY

October 29, 2015Oscar Wei, Senior Economist

METHODOLOGY

• C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. The questions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughout that time.

• The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 25,350 REALTORS® throughout California. The sample represented the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across the state. The survey asked REALTORS® to provide information from their most recent sales transaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2015.

• The survey instrument was a questionnaire with both multiple choice and

open-ended questions. There were 1,465 valid survey responses, equivalent to a response rate of 5.8 percent. The margin of error for this survey was +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

SALES HAVE BEEN STRONG AFTER A WEAK START

California, Sep 2015 Sales: 425,030 Units, +7.3% YTD, +6.9% YTY

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sep-15:

425,030

Sep-14:

397,490

INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR

Sep 2014: 4.2 Months; Sep 2015: 3.7 Months

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MARKET REMAINED COMPETITIVE, AS INVENTORY LEVEL CONTINUED TO BE LOW

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

53%53%

4.3

4.0

% with Multiple Offers

SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

33%33%

% of Sales above Asking Price

Long Run Average = 19%

ONE-THIRD OF HOMES SOLD ABOVE THE ASKING PRICE

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Med. Price Discount

Med. Weeks on MLS

0%, 2.1 weeks

Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market


PRICE REDUCTION PRIOR TO AN OFFER BEING MADE

$1,000 or less

$1001 - $5,000

$5,001 - $10,000

$10,001 - $20,000

$20,001 - $50,000

More than $50,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

29%

8%

10%

13%

16%

24%

Amt. of Price Reduction

Q. Was there any price reduction made to the list price prior to an offer being made to the property?Q. How much was the price reduction?

26%

75%

Price Reduction

Yes No


Avg. Reduction $ = $15,000

INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009

BUT REMAINED TIGHT

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-150.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2.5

3.63.9

Bay Area Central Valley So CA

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

TIGHT SUPPLY CREATED MORE MARKET COMPETITION IN THE BAY AREA

San

Fran

cisco

Bay

Are

a

Sout

hern

Cal

iforn

ia

Other

Cou

ntie

s in

Cal

iforn

ia0

1

2

3

4

5

4

3 3

Number of Multiple Offers


Other Counties in California

Southern California

San Francisco Bay Area

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

36%

56%

63%

Percent with Multiple Offers

IMBALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BID UP HOME PRICES, PARTICULARLY IN THE

BAY AREA

SF B

ay A

rea

So C

A

Other

Cou

nties i

n CA

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000$40,000

$11,000

$6,000

Amt. over Asking Price


Other Coun-ties in CA

So CA

SF Bay Area

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

20%

25%

62%

% with Sold Price Above Asking Price

SF B

ay A

rea

So C

A

Other

Cou

nties i

n CA

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9% 8.6%

2.3% 2.3%

% over Asking Price

REASONS FOR BUYING

Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home

Desired Better Location

Investment/ Tax Considerations

Change in Family Status

Changed Jobs

Retirement/Move to Retirement Community

Desired Smaller Home

Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

23%

19%

16%

14%

5%

4%

4%

4%

1%

11%


DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT & SECOND/ VACATION HOMES DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Investment/Rental PropertyVacation/Second Home

% to Total Sales

5%

Long Run Average: 12 %

13%

INVESTOR STRATEGY: STILL BUYING TO RENT

Investment to Flip

Rental Property

2013: 18%

2014: 30%

2015: 26%

2013: 82%

2014: 70%

2015: 74%

SHARE OF CASH BUYERS IS THE LOWEST SINCE 2009

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

21%

% of All Cash Sales

• One-fifth of buyers paid with all cash

• The share of all cash buyers is the lowest in the last 6 years


THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 8 YEARS

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

4%

Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?


ALL CASH INTERNATIONAL BUYERS

International Buyers Domestic Buyers0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

42%20%

59%73%

All cash Obtained financing


INTENDED USE FOR PROPERTY? HOME

Vacation/Second Home

Investment Property

Primary Residence

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2%

21%

76%

6%

13%

82%

Domestic BuyersInternational Buyers


0 1 2 3 4 5 or more0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

71%

14%

6% 4% 2% 4%

72%

12%6%

3% 2%5%

77%

9%5% 3% 1%

4%

2013

2014

2015

# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months

% Who Sold to International Buyers

Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months? SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

REALTORS® WORKED WITH INTERNATIONAL BUYERS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS

COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER

• China (43%)

• Mexico (8%)

• South Korea (8%)


REASONS TO BUY IN CALIFORNIA

Mild year-around weather Advanced Educational Opportunities

System # of Campuses

Examples

University of California

10 • University of California, Berkeley

• University of California, Los Angeles

• University of California, Riverside

• University of California, San Diego

California State University

23 • Cal State University, Fullerton

• Cal State University, Northridge

• Cal State Polytechnic University, Pomona

California Community College

109+ • Santa Monica College• Pasadena City College

Private University Hundreds • California Institute of Technology

• Pepperdine University• Stanford University• University of Southern

California

Amazing outdoor environment

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS REMAINS BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

29.5%

% First-Time Home BuyersLong Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%


REASONS FOR BUYING FIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT

Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

55%

10%

9%

8%

7%

3%

1%

0%

1%

7%

9%

23%

19%

16%

4%

5%

5%

5%

1%

12%

Repeat BuyersFirst-Time Buyers


THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT INCHED UP FROM 2014

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$74,500

20%

Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price


Q. What was the amount of downpayment?

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

11.3%

6.4%

6.9%3.7%

All Hombuyers First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

Down Payment

PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT


PROPORTION OF TRANSACTIONS WITH SECOND MORTGAGES

Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

4.1%

Percent of Home Sales with Second Mortgage


PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH SECOND MORTGAGE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

6.4%

3.7%

First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers


Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.

WHILE THE SHARE OF FHA INCREASED FROM THE RECENT LOW, IT WAS STILL MUCH LOWER

THAN 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

16%19%

7%5%

FHA VA


YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10All Sellers


Why aren’t they selling sooner?

Affordability challenge:• Low rate on current

mortgage

• Low property taxes

• Concerned with capital gains

• Why list when there is nowhere to go I can afford?

• Could not qualify for a mortgage today

Demographics

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500 56%

$1,500

% needs Repair Median Repair Costs/Price Adjustment

REPAIR COSTS/PRICE ADJUSTMENTS

Q. Did the seller repair items, make adjustments to the purchase price, or make any other concessions during escrow due to discovered defects?


SELLERS WITH NET CASH LOSS DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN THE LAST 9

YEARS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

6.9%

Long Run Average = 11.9%

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

NET CASH GAIN TO SELLERS HIGHEST SINCE 2007

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$120,000


Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?

MORE INVESTORS SELLING THEIR INVESTMENT PROPERTIES

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

23.4%

26.2%Long Run Average = 19.1%

Q. How was the property occupied?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MORE THAN HALF OF ALL SELLERS ARE PLANNING TO BUY ANOTHER HOME

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

53%


LOCATION OF SELLER’S NEW HOME

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44%

In another county in California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20%

In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22%

Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%

Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13%

Total 100% 100%

100%

100% 100% 100

%100%

100%

100% 100% 100

%

REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY ALL BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)

Housing affordability

Quality of life

Second home

Shorter commute to work/school

Job change

Closer to family/relative

Quality of school

Retired

Quality of community services

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

14%

16%

5%

10%

9%

13%

8%

3%

3%

18%

23%

14%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

5%

0%

14%

2015 2014


BUYERS BY GENERATION


32%Millennials

18 – 35

40%Gen X

36 – 50

24%Baby Boomers

51 – 69

5%Silent Gen

70 and older

HOME OWNERSHIP RATE NEARLY 4 TIMES HIGHER AMONG BOOMERS

Baby Boomers

75%

22%

3%

OwnRentOther

Millennials

20%

41%

39%

OwnRentOther

Q. What is your current living situation?SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

REASONS FOR BUYING MILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS


Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

41%

18%

11%

10%

6%

6%

0%

0%

1%

7%

13%

13%

18%

16%

5%

3%

10%

7%

0%

14%

Baby BoomersMillennials


BOOMERS HAVE LESS DEBT THAN MILLENNIALS THAT PREVENTS BUYING A

HOME

Q. What type of debt do you have that would make it difficult to buy a home?

Credit cards

Consolidated personal loan

Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

35%

12%

7%

2%

11%

53%

41%

17%

8%

7%

4%

43%

MillennialsBoomers

SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS: MILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS

Millennials Baby Boomers

Median Household Income $100,000 $130,000

Median Home Price $470,000 $505,000

Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,538 $1,516

Median Downpayment (in $$) $50,000 $79,500

Median Downpayment (in % to Price)

13.1% 20%


USE OF PROPERTY

Q. How will the property be occupied?Millennials Baby Boomers All

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

92.8%

70.1%81.6%

5.8%

17.3%13.1%

1.4%

12.6%

5.3%

Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home


WHAT MILLENNIALS AND BABY BOOMERS WANT?


Millennials Baby Boomers All Buyers

Median Sales Price $470,000 $505,000 $495,000

Median Square Footage 1,600 1,779 1,707

Median Age of Structure 36 33 35

% of Detached Single-Family

75.6% 71.6% 76.6%

% of Condo/Townhome 19.8% 17.5% 15.5%

DEMOGRAPHICS: ETHNICITY

56%

17%

14%

10%4%

White

Asian

Hispanic

Other

Black


HOUSING DEMAND WILL INCREASE, LARGELY DRIVEN BY MINORITIES

SOURCE: Urban Institute

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2.7 4.6 2.2 2.18.9 11.6

1.3 4.8 1.9 2.59.1 10.4

Projected household growth, 2010-2010

Net new households, millions

23%

46%39%

18%12%

18%19%

100%

100%

88%77%

24%

2010-2020

SHARE OF MINORITY HOME BUYERS HAS GROWN OVER TIME …

Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property

White/Non-Hispanic

African-American Hispanic Asian0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

68.5%

5.0%

14.1%

7.5%

55.8%

4.2%

19.9%

12.5%

56.3%

3.6%

14.0% 16.5%

1995 2005 2015


SHARE OF MINORITY HOME SELLERSALSO HAS GROWN OVER TIME …

Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property

White

/Non

-Hisp

anic

Afric

an-A

mer

ican

Hispan

ic

Asian

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%86.7%

2.0% 4.1% 4.6%

70.8%

4.7%10.4% 9.7%

70.7%

3.2%8.6% 8.8%

1995 2005 2015


REASONS FOR BUYING MINORITY BUYERS VS. ALL BUYERS


Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Minority Buyers All Buyers


REASONS FOR BUYING HISPANIC BUYERS VS. ASIAN BUYERS


Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Asian Buyers Hispanic Buyers


SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP

Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?Minority Hispanic Asian All

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

38.8%45.7%

33.0%29.5%

% First-Time Home Buyers

% First-Time Home Buyers


USE OF PROPERTY

Q. How will the property be occupied?Minority Hispanic Asian All

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

82.1%89.3%

75.4%81.6%

14.3%7.7%

18.6%13.1%

3.6% 3.0%6.0% 5.3%

Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home


CHARACTERISTICS OF HOMES


Minority Buyers

Hispanic Buyers

Asian Buyers

All Buyers

Median Sales Price $467,000 $324,000 $675,000 $495,000

Median Square Footage 1,700 1,600 1,783 1,707

Median Age of Structure 35 30 35 35

% of Detached Single-Family

78.7% 85.0% 75.6% 76.6%

% of Condo/Townhome 14.8% 9.8% 18.0% 15.5%

BUYERS’ FINANCIAL PROFILE I


Minority Buyers

Hispanic Buyers

Asian Buyers

All Buyers

Median Household Income $100,000 $80,000 $170,000 $120,000

Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,673 $1,443 $1,969 $1,669

Median Downpayment (in $$) $60,500 $13,875 $120,000 $74,500

Median Downpayment (in % to Price)

18.4% 5.0% 20.2% 19.6%

BUYERS’ FINANCIAL PROFILE II


Minority Buyers

Hispanic

Buyers

Asian Buyers

All Buyers

% of buyers with zero down payment

4.2% 7.4% 2.1% 4.4%

% of cash buyers 17.6% 11.3% 25.7% 21.0%

% of home buyers with a second mortgage

4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.1%

% with FHA Loan 25.9% 46.3% 8.6% 19.3%

REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY (ALL BUYERS VS. MINORITY BUYERS)


Quality of life

Second home


Job change


Quality of school

Retired


Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

23%

14%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

5%

0%

14%

39%

9%

4%

14%

7%

5%

9%

1%

1%

12%



REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY MINORITY BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)


Quality of life

Second home


Job change


Quality of school

Retired


Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

23%

11%

3%

8%

6%

16%

12%

1%

2%

19%

39%

9%

4%

14%

7%

5%

9%

1%

1%

12%

2015 2014


HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT

Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?

Represented Them in Previous Home Transac-tion

Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor

Refferal from Business Associates

Open House

Door-to-Door Farming

Yard Signs

Relocation Referral

Social Media

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%



HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT

Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?

Represented Them in Previous Home Transac-tion

Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor

Refferal from Business Associates

Open House

Door-to-Door Farming

Yard Signs

Relocation Referral

Social Media

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Asian Buyers Hispanic Buyers


BUYERS NEED MOST HELP WITH FINDING THE RIGHT HOME

Other

Determining affordability

Preparing transaction documents

Price Negotiation

Negotiating terms of sale

Finding the right home

0% 5% 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

12%

3%

12%

18%

20%

38%

Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

SELLERS NEED MOST HELP WITH NEGOTIATING TERMS OF SALE

Other

Negotiating the price

Preparing transaction documents

Preparing the home for sale

Marketing the property

Setting the right price

Negotiating terms of sale

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

7%

10%

12%

16%

17%

18%

20%

Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

2016 FORECAST

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p2016f

SFH Resales (000s) 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 407.5 433.0

% Change -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 6.3% 6.3%

Median Price ($000s) $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $476.3 $491.3

% Change 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2%Housing Affordability Index 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 31% 27%

30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5%

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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2015 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY October 29, 2015 Oscar Wei, Senior Economist.

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Transcript of 2015 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY October 29, 2015 Oscar Wei, Senior Economist.