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GlobalEstimates2014Peopledisplacedbydisasters


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September 2014

Global Estimates 2014People displaced by disasters


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Lead author/project coordinator: Michelle Yonetani

Researchers and contributors:

Modelling/analytics: Chris LavellGlobal data collection:Luisa Meneghetti, Sven Richter, Simone HolladayCountry data: International Organization for Migration (IOM), with special thanks to Nuno Nunes and Kelly OConnor andEsther Namukasa and country offices in: Afghanistan; Angola; Bolivia; Botswana; Cambodia; China; Colombia; DominicanRepublic; El Salvador; Haiti; Indonesia; Kenya; Myanmar; Mozambique; Namibia; Nepal; Nicaragua; Niger; Pakistan; PapuaNew Guinea; Peru; Philippines; South Korea; Sri Lanka; South Sudan; Sudan; Timor-Leste; Uganda; United States; Zambia.Section contributors: Justin Ginnetti, Melanie Kesmaecker-Wissing, Chris Lavell, Anas Pagot, Lorelle Yuen (IOM)

Reviewers:

IDMCand NRC:Sebastin Albuja, Ali Anwar, Alexandra Bilak, Nina Birkeland, Lena Brenn, Sophie Crozet, SabrinaFrutig, Arvinn Gadgil, Justin Ginnetti, Jacopo Giorgi, Anne-Kathrin Glatz, Frederik Kok, Anas Pagot, Joe Read, YouriSaadallah, Isabelle Scherer, Clare Spurrell, Alfredo Zamudio, NRCcountry offices

External: Elizabeth Ferris, Co-director of the Brookings-LSEProject on Internal Displacement and senior fellow inForeign Policy, Brookings Institution; Franois Gemenne, Research fellow, Institut de rcherche sur les politiques,lInstitut du dveloppement durable et des relations internationales ( IDDRI) Science Po/CEDEM University ofLige; Mahmudul Islam, Senior Policy Advisor (Disaster Risk Reduction), Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and DisasterManagement, Government of Republic of South Sudan; Khalid Koser, Executive Director of the Interim Secretariat ofthe Global Community, Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF) and associate fellow, Geneva Centre for SecurityPolicy (GCSP); Greta Zeender, Adviser to the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Per-sons/OCHAIDPFocal Point; The Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS); Luis Aguilar and Xitong Zhang, OCHAColombia; Joint IDPProfiling Service (JIPS); REACH, a joint initiative of ACTED, IMPACTInitiatives and UNOSAT

Editor: Jeremy Lennard

Designer:Rachel Natali

Printing:Imprimerie Harder

Cover photo: A woman carries her baby across an area damaged by Typhoon Haiyan at Tacloban city, Leyte prov-ince, central Philippines. Four days after Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms on record, struck the easternPhilippines, assistance is only just beginning to arrive. (Photo:APPhoto/Aaron Favila, November )

Please note: The global, regional and national estimates provided in this report are based on information available toIDMCon the overall scale of displacement related to disasters as of August . Where new information becomesavailable, the IDMCdataset is updated. Revisions to aggregate figures are reflected in the following years report.

All disasters that displaced at least , people are listed in Annexe B to this report . In the body of this report,

figures of , and over have been rounded to the nearest ,; figures of , and less have been rounded tothe nearest . Data on all disaster-induced displacement events for each year since including sources ofinformation used is available upon request. Please email: [email protected]

Internal Displacement Monitoring CentreNorwegian Refugee CouncilChemin de Balexert 79CH-1219 Chtelaine (Geneva)Tel: +41 22 799 0700, Fax: +41 22 799 0701

www.internal-displacement.org


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With thanks

IDMCwould like to thank the donors who supported its work in , and thereby made it possible to produce this report.

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are thesole responsibility of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and can in no way be taken to reflect the views

of the European Union.

Thanks to the support of Australias AusAID, EuropeAid, the Liechtenstein MFA, the Netherlands MFA, the NorwegianMinistry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Swedens Sida, the Swiss FDFA, the UKs DFID, the Office of the UNHigh Commis-sioner for Refugees (UNHCR), USAs USAID, the World Bank and other supporters.

Thanks to the following governments for additional information provided: Government of Angola; Government of Colom -bia; Government of Haiti; Government of Namibia/Zambezi Regional Council; Government of Niger; Government of thePhilippines; Government of the Republic of Korea; Government of Uganda.

This project was funded by

the European Union

Acronyms

ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction CentreAFP Agence France-PresseCAR Central African RepublicCCCM Camp Coordination and Camp Management (cluster)CCSFC Central Committee for Storm and Flood ControlCRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of DisastersDMC Disaster Management CentreFDMA

Fire and Disaster Management AuthorityFEMA Federal Emergency Management AgencyFEWS NETFamine Early Warning Systems NetworkDSWD Department of Social Welfare and DevelopmentHDI Human Development IndexIDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring CentreIDP Internally Displaced PeopleIFRC International Federation of Red Cross and

Red Crescent SocietiesIOM International Organisation for MigrationIPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate ChangeLDCs Least Developed CountriesMCA Ministry of Civil AffairsNCDM National Committee for Disaster ManagementNDMA National Disaster Management Authority

NDRRMCNational Disaster Risk Reduction andManagement Council

NEMA National Emergency Management AuthorityNEOC National Emergency Operations CentreNGO Non Governmental OrganisationNRC Norwegian Refugee CouncilOCHA Office of the High Commissioner for the Coordination of

Humanitarian Affairs (UN)

OHCHROffice of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN)SIDS Small Island Developing StatesSSRRC South Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation CommissionUCDP Uppsala Conflict Data ProgrammeUN United NationsUNDESAUnited Nations Department of Economic and

Social AffairsUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNHCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for

RefugeesUNICEF United Nations International Childrens Emergency FundUNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk ReductionUNMISS United Nations Mission in the Republic of South SudanWRI World Risk Index


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4 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre | September 2014

Table of contents

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Scope and limitations of this report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box .: Key terms and concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. The global scale of displacement: patterns and trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Key findings and messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement between and . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Box . Displacement by small but frequent events: the tip of the iceberg? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. The rising trend in displacement since . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Regional and national exposure and vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


. Displacement by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Countries with the highest levels of displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement related to weather and geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


. Displacement related to weather hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Displacement related to geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Emergency evacuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box . Building understanding of drought-related displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Countries with displacement caused by both conflict and disasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Key findings and messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Where conflict and disasters combine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Spotlight on South Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annex A: the methodology behind IDMCs global estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A. The annual measurement of displacement caused by disasters between and . . . . . . . . . .

A. Modelling displacement trends from to . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annex B: Largest displacement events of . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Largest displacement events of (all events, + displaced people) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-


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5Global estimates 2014 | People displaced by disasters

List of figures, maps and tables

Figures

Figure . : largest displacement events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . The scale of global displacement by disasters, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Annual displacement by region, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . - : displacement by scale of events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Number of displacement events at different scales over a year (). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Modelled global trend in disaster-induced displacement, -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Global displacement by region, and - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Total world population by region ( - average) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Total population by region, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . Trends in displacement by region, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . - : Annual displacement by World Bank-defined region (absolute and relative figures) . . . . . . . .

Figure . -: Regional displacement by hazard type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . - : Countries with highest levels of displacement (total and per year) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . : Countries with highest levels of displacement (total and per hazard type) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . A comparison of displacement related to weather versus geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Displacement by type of hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . Annual displacement and largest events by hazard category, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . - : Displacement by weather hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Annual displacement by storm-related disasters in Asia, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . - : Displacement by geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines: IDPs staying in different types of

collective shelter sites, December - April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . The evacuation process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure . Simplified diagram of pastoralist displacement dynamics in Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Percentage of pastoralist population displaced in the context of drought in northern Kenya,

southern Ethiopia and south-central Somalia: historical estimate and future projections . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure . Ten countries with new displacement related to both natural hazards and conflict during . . . . . . . . . .Figure . New displacement related to violence and floods in South Sudan, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure A., a-c: Modelled historical displacement trend compared with people affected,

rendered homeless and killed by disasters, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure A. Modeled displacement trends by hazard type, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure A. Disaster mortality trends by hazard type, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Maps

Global map: Disaster-induced displacement worldwide in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Map . Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines: scale of displacement in affected areas andlocation of IDPs in evacuation centres days after onset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Map . Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines: IDP movements from key transport hubs in the affected areas to citiesacross different regions during the first month after onset ( November - December ) . . . . . . . . . . .

Tables

Table . Global population trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Table A. Typology of natural hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


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Foreword

By Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council; andAlfredo Zamudio, director of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

Displacement by disasters is a global phenomenon that is growing in scale and complexity. Since , an averageof million people have been displaced annually by disasters brought on by natural hazards. The risk of such dis-placement is estimated to have doubled in the past years.

We need coordinated approaches to prevent, manage and respond to this enormous challenge - and continuedefforts to monitor and quantify it.

IDMCs Global Estimates report for , the fifth of its kind, is an essential contribution to our knowledge of thescale and impacts of rapid-onset disasters. It provides a solid evidence base for understanding global patterns and

trends in displacement, and to inform frameworks for the achievement of post- goals on disaster risk reductionand sustainable development. It also underscores the need for climate change adaptation plans and donor commit-ments that give due attention to the increasing risk of displacement.

We very much hope that IDMCs findings will contribute to a global dialogue on the issues raised, and we encourageall governments to act decisively in their responses to disaster-induced internal displacement.

Jan Egeland

Secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council

Alfredo Zamudio

Director of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre


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Disasters brought on by natural hazards force millions ofpeople to flee their homes each year across all regions ofthe world. The displacement caused is a global phenom-enon, and its growing scale, frequency and complexitypose huge challenges for exposed and vulnerable pop-ulations, governments, humanitarian and developmentorganisations and disaster risk managers.

As most disasters are as much man-made as they arenatural, much more can be done in order to strengthencommunity-based and national resilience to prevent theworst impacts of natural hazards, and to better prepare for

events that cannot be avoided. Policies and practice thatprotect and respect the rights of displaced people andthose at risk of displacement, and that target their specificneeds, can play a vital role in mitigating impacts, breakingrecurrent patterns and avoiding protracted situations.

Now is an opportune moment for policymakers to en-sure that displacement issues are better addressed inpost- goals and frameworks for international actionon disaster risk reduction and sustainable development,which are currently under preparation. Governments mustmake certain that climate change adaptation plans anddonor commitments give due attention to the increasingrisk of displacement, including by facilitating migrationand planned relocation in ways that respect the rightsof vulnerable populations. Consultations ahead of the World Humanitarian Summit should also ensure thatdisplacement is considered in the context of disasters,conflict and mixed crises.

Purpose and scope of this report

IDMCs Global Estimates report, the fifth of its kind,aims to equip governments, international and regional

institutions and civil society with up-to-date estimatesand analysis of the displacement disasters cause and toidentify trends as the basis for evidence-based dialogueand decision-making. The report presents estimates for, and for each of the five preceding years. It also usesa prototype method to model the broad, historical trendin displacement since .

Our data for to identifies displacement in countries, and the historical dataset includes disastersreported in countries. Both include disasters associ-ated with geophysical hazards such as earthquakes and

volcanic eruptions, and weather-related hazards such as

Executive summary

floods, storms, landslides, cold snaps and wildfires. Thereport also includes findings from countries where bothnatural hazards and conflict have caused displacement,with a spotlight on the complex and growing crisis inSouth Sudan.

Our Global Estimates reports do not capture figures forprolonged displacement following disasters in previousyears, or for ongoing displacement over the year in whichthey started. Ad hoc case studies and reports exist onsuch situations, but post-emergency monitoring and re-porting on protracted situations is generally poor and

constitutes a significant global blind spot.

We arrived at our estimates for to by compiling,cross-checking and analysing reports from a wide rangeof sources, including governments, national disaster lossdatabases, humanitarian clusters and working groups,UNagencies, the International Organisation for Migration(IOM), the International Federation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC), NGOs, research institutions,the media and private sector organisations. The method-ologies used are detailed in annex A of the report.

The global scale of displacement: patternsand trends

The scale of global displacement by disasters,2008 - 2013

0

10

20

30

40

201320122011201020092008

Peopledisp

laced(millions

)

Source: IDMC estimates as of 22 August 2014

36.5

16.715.0

42.4

32.4

21.9

Average year, 27.5m

2013 Almost million people were displaced in at least

countries, almost three times as many as were newly

displaced by conflict and violence.


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Women, walking with what possesions they can carry, arrive in a steady trickle at an IDP camp erected next to an AMISOM milit ary base near the townof Jowhar, Somalia. Heavy rains in Somalia, coupled with recent disputes between clans, has resulted in over four thousand IDPs seeking shelter at anAMISOM military base near the town of Jowhar, with more arriving daily. AU UN IST Photo / Tobin Jones, November

Thirty-seven of the -plus recorded events involvedthe displacement of more than , people. TyphoonHaiyan, which caused the largest displacement of theyear, forced a million more people to flee their homesin the Philippines than in Africa, the Americas, Europeand Oceania combined.

Mass displacements are frequent in countries mostexposed and vulnerable to natural hazards. In thePhilippines, three major disasters struck in the spaceof four months - typhoon Haiyan displaced . millionpeople, typhoon Trami . million and an earthquake inthe Central Visayas region ,. The latter was theworlds largest displacement of the year triggered byan earthquake.As in previous years, most of the largest displacementstook place in populous Asian countries. Typhoons,

floods and earthquakes in China and the Philippinesaccounted for of the largest displacements.Rainy season floods in sub-Saharan Africa triggeredfive of the largest displacements relative to popu-lation size. Four took place in Niger, Chad, Sudan andSouth Sudan - neighbouring, semi-arid countries of theSahel region with highly vulnerable populations who arealso affected by drought and conflict. The fifth tookplace in Mozambique.

The extent to which populations in the most developedcountries are exposed to hazards also led to some ofthe worlds largest displacements. Typhoon Man-yi in

the Chubu region of Japan displaced , people,

tornados in the US state of Oklahoma , andfloods in Alberta, Canada ,.

2008 to 2013Disasters displaced an average of million peopleeach year between and . There are significantdifferences in the estimates from year to year, but theannual total has always exceeded million.Major disasters are irregular and relatively infrequent,but they cause displacement on a vast scale when theydo occur. Thirty-five disasters that each forced morethan a million people to leave their homes accounted for per cent of all displacement over the six-year period.Relatively small but far more frequent events tend to beunder-reported. Figures for such events are, therefore,likely to be significant underestimates and their repeat-

ed and cumulative impacts are poorly understood. In-creased investment in disaster risk reduction measures,such as better urban planning, the maintenance of flooddefences and the introduction of building standards forhousing and other infrastructure that can withstandsmaller-scale hazards, could prevent or mitigate muchof their impact.

Trends since 1970Significantly more people are displaced by disastersnow than in the s. In absolute terms, the risk ofdisplacement is estimated to have more than doubled

in four decades.


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A number of factors help to explain the rising trend:More people are exposed to natural hazards andaffected by disasters than years ago, particu-larly in urban areas of more vulnerable countries.The global population has increased by per centsince the s, and urban populations have grown

by per cent. Urban populations in developingcountries have risen by per cent.Improvements in disaster preparedness and re-sponse measures, including early warning systemsand emergency evacuations, mean that more peo-ple now survive disasters but many of the survi-vors are displaced.

The collection of data on disasters and the dis-placement they cause has improved. We knowmore about the impacts of disasters that occurnow than we did about those that happened years ago. That said, large gaps and significant

variations in the quality of available informationmean that data collection needs to be better still.

Modelled global trend in disaster-induceddisplacement, 1970-2012

0

20

40

20102000199019801970

Peopledisplace

d(millions

)

Linear best fit trend


Regional and national exposure andvulnerability

Developing countries account for the vast majority ofdisplacement caused by disasters each year - morethan per cent in , and per cent between and . Those with the lowest development levelsand small island developing states are particularly vul-nerable and they are disproportionately representedamong countries with the highest displacement figuresin absolute terms or relative to their population sizes.

Repeated events leave little time for recovery between

one disaster and wave of displacement and the next.

Eighty-eight countries experienced a number of dis-placement events involving more than , peopleover the six-year period.

The average number of people displaced by disastershas risen over the past four decades in all regions ofthe world, but the trend has been most marked in Asia.

More vulnerable people are exposed to hazards theretoday than were years ago, and it is the only regionwhose share of global displacement has exceeded itspercentage of the worlds population.Between and , . per cent of displacementtook place in Asia. The region accounted for the largest displacements of and the five countrieswith the highest displacement levels: the Philippines,China, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Given that Africas population is growing more quicklythan other regions, peoples exposure to hazards anddisplacement risk is expected to increase faster there

in the coming decades. Its population is predicted todouble by . A small number of unexpectedly extreme hazards led

to high levels of displacement in the Americas between and . They included hurricane Sandy, whichaffected the US, Cuba and other countries in , andthe earthquakes in Haiti and Chile.

Pacific island countries are disproportionately affectedby disasters and the displacement they cause, becausewhen a hazard strikes it can severely affect a very highproportion of their inhabitants. This pattern is also seenin small island developing states in other regions.

Compared with other regions, Europe experienced lowerlevels of displacement relative to its population size be-tween and . That said, severe floods in centralEurope, particularly Germany and the Czech Republic,and in Russia and the UK, made a peak year.

Displacement related to weather andgeophysical hazards

Weather-related hazards, particularly floods and storms,trigger most of the displacement induced by rapid-on-set disasters almost every year. In , such events

triggered the displacement of . million people, or per cent of the global total.

Since , displacement has increased with regardto both weather-related and geophysical hazards.Displacement due to weather-related hazards has in-creased more quickly, which corresponds to develop-ment and urban growth in areas exposed to cyclonesand floods, particularly in Asia.

Weather-related hazards are linked not only to normalvariability in weather patterns, but also to long-termchanges in the global climate that are expected tocause more frequent extreme weather events in the fu-

ture. That said, changes in climate and weather patterns


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over the next two or three decades will be relativelysmall compared with the normal year-to-year variabilityin extreme events. Near and medium-term trends indisplacement associated with disasters will be drivenby factors that increase the number of people who areexposed and vulnerable to hazards, more than by the

hazards themselves. The quantification of displacement related to drought

remains a global gap, which IDMC is attempting toaddress. We have piloted a new methodology and toolto estimate the historical displacement of pastoralistsin the Horn of Africa, which could be applied to oth-er regions and livelihoods affected by drought. Deci-sion-makers could also use the tool to evaluate thepotential effectiveness of investments under differentclimate and demographic scenarios.

Unless action is taken to reduce disaster risk and tohelp communities adapt to changing weather patterns,

we are likely to see much more displacement in thecoming years and decades. Preventing and preparingfor such population movements, and ensuring that last-ing solutions are achieved for those who do becomedisplaced, makes development sustainable.For increasing numbers of people living in areas prone tonatural hazards, early warning systems and well-plannedevacuations will become ever more important. Plans andmeasures to protect evacuees, especially the most vul-nerable, should cover all phases of their displacement,until they have reintegrated safely and voluntarily in theirhome areas or settled in alternative locations.Policymakers should take care to ensure that nationaldisaster risk reduction and climate change adaptationplans and measures incorporate the risk and impactof displacement. Many of those we analysed do not.Authorities should also ensure that their plans do nothave the potential to cause displacement. They shouldavoid measures that arbitrarily displace people or re-quire their permanent relocation without full respectfor their human rights.

Countries with displacement caused byboth conflict and disasters

Those undertaking humanitarian and development in-itiatives should address complex displacement situa-tions in countries affected by both conflict and naturalhazards in a coherent and integrated way. In out of countries affected by armed conflict between and , there were also reports of natural hazardsforcing people to flee their homes. Measures to re-duce disaster and displacement risk related to naturalhazards may also reduce the risk of conflict driven byinsecure livelihoods.

The combination of conflict and natural hazards cre-

ates military and environmental obstacles to population

movements, isolating communities and limiting peoplesoptions in terms of flight and destinations. Particularattention should be paid to the protection of those whodo not have the freedom to move to safer locationsand who are at risk of being trapped in life-threateningsituations, including those displaced to locations near

to their homes. Many people who flee a combination of conflict and

natural hazards suffer repeated displacement, includ-ing those who take refuge in areas where they arethen exposed to further risk. Disaster risk reductionmeasures and community-based livelihood strategiesare needed to enable people to adapt to new shocks,prepare for future ones and prevent repeated cyclesof displacement.Some IDPs return home relatively quickly following aflood or other natural hazard, but others do not. Peo-ple who remain displaced for prolonged periods and

whose situations are unknown may be among the mostvulnerable and in need of particular assistance andprotection. Continued monitoring is needed to ensurethat their situations are not neglected and that they areable to achieve durable solutions to their displacement.

More comprehensive and reliable data is needed toimprove knowledge of displacement dynamics whenpeople are exposed to multiple hazards, with the aim ofinforming holistic responses that reflect the severity ofsuch crises and prioritise the protection of those mostin need.

Looking ahead

Higher average levels of displacement are to be expect-ed in the coming decades. As seen in past decades,demographic trends and vulnerability will continue to bethe primary drivers of displacement risk, and changes inthe frequency and intensity of extreme weather eventsare expected to add to this risk.

The increase in the number of people exposed to haz-ards has outstripped authorities ability to reduce thevulnerability of their populations, particularly in urbanareas. To offset population growth, governments and

their partners will need to step up efforts to reducepeoples exposure and vulnerability by adopting and en-forcing better land-use plans and building regulations,addressing income inequality and improving conditionsfor large populations living in informal settlements.

The infrequent and random nature of the largest haz-ards makes annual displacement levels difficult topredict. This further highlights the need for greaterinvestment in disaster risk reduction, climate changeadaptation and preparedness measures that addresspeoples underlying vulnerability to extreme weatherpatterns and the risk of major earthquake and volcano

disasters.


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This annual report, the fifth of its kind, aims to equipgovernments, local authorities, civil society organisationsand international and regional institutions with up-to-dateestimates and analysis of the scale, patterns and trendsin displacement caused by disasters worldwide, and soto inform evidence-based dialogue and decision-making.As Margareta Wahlstrm, the UN secretary generalsspecial representative on disaster risk reduction, putsit: What you cant measure, you cant manage. The UNdeputy high commissioner for human rights, Flavia Pan-sieri, also points out that robust statistics are essentialto translating human rights commitments into targeted

policies, and to assessing their effectiveness: If you dontcount it, it wont count.1

Global data from the past four decades shows that dis-asters brought on by natural hazards force millions ofpeople to flee their homes each year. was no ex-ception, with almost million people displaced duringthe year. Displacement often plays a central role in peo-ples response to disasters and the way in which crisesevolve. The growing scale, frequency and complexity ofthe phenomenon across all regions of the world posehuge challenges for exposed and vulnerable populations,and for all those working to protect them and respondto their needs.

Those affected may be displaced short distances or farfrom their homes. For some, flight is a temporary measurelasting days or weeks, but for others it becomes pro-longed or protracted. Repeated displacement is commonin areas prone to hazards, and has cumulative impactsif recovery measures do not address the underlying vul-nerability and strengthen the resilience of exposed pop-ulations. Displacement has a disproportionate effect onthe most vulnerable men, women and children in bothdeveloped and developing countries, and not only on

displaced people themselves. The families and commu-nities with whom they seek refuge and in some casespermanent integration are also affected, as are those whomay be left or choose to stay behind in their home areas.

Most disasters are as much man-made as they are nat-ural. Much more can be done to prevent them from hap-pening in the first place, to limit the amount of displace-ment they cause and to better prepare for that whichis unavoidable. Policies and practice that respect therights of people displaced and at risk of displacement,and which target their specific needs, can play a vital role

in mitigating impacts, breaking recurrent patterns and

Introduction

avoiding protracted situations. Unless they are properlyaddressed, such situations undermine development andincrease the risk of future disasters.

Now is an opportune moment for policymakers to ensurethat displacement issues are more fully incorporated intopost- frameworks and goals for international actionon disaster risk reduction and sustainable development,which are currently under preparation. Governments mustmake certain that climate change adaptation plans anddonor commitments give due attention to the increasingrisk of displacement. This should include the facilitation

of migration and planned relocation in ways that respectvulnerable populations rights and involve them fully in thepreparation and implementation of such measures. Con-sultations ahead of the World Humanitarian Summitshould also ensure that displacement is considered in thecontext of disasters, conflict and mixed crises.

1.1 Scope and limitations of this report

The annual Global Estimates report provides up-to-datestatistics on the incidence of new displacement causedby disasters associated with natural hazards worldwide.It presents figures for the total number of people dis-placed during each event or disaster period at the coun-try, regional and global level alongside complementaryevidence and analysis.

This years report includes: High quality global estimates for events in and

the five preceding years, including a spotlight on thedisaster caused when typhoon Haiyan struck the Phil-ippines in November , the consequences of whichare still ongoing (see sections . and .). Displacementhas occurred in countries between and ,

though not in every country each year, and in coun-tries during itself

An estimate of the broad, historical global trend in dis-placement since (see sections . and )

Coverage of the largest events and the countries withthe highest levels of displacement (see sections .,. and ), and a discussion of smaller, under-reportedevents and their significance (see box .)Estimates by event, country and region normalised bypopulation size, in order to better compare the scaleof displacement across countries of vastly differentsizes. Country findings are also considered in relation to

sources of vulnerability to displacement, including those
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indicated by development and disaster risk indices (seesection .), and the importance of preparedness, in-cluding emergency evacuations (see box .)

Estimates for disasters associated with rapid-onset ge-ophysical and weather-related hazards, such as floods,storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides,

cold snaps and wildfires (see annex A, table A.).Slow-onset hazards such as drought and environmentaldegradation are also significant drivers of displacementrisk, but these phenomena are not included because adifferent methodology is required to analyse and quan-tify their impact. IDMC has developed such a method-ology, and the issue, particularly as it relates to droughtand pastoralist communities, is discussed in section .

Findings on countries affected by displacement causedby both natural hazards and conflict, with a spotlight onthe complex and growing crisis in South Sudan (seesection )

A detailed explanation of the different methodologiesused to develop our to and -year datasets(see annex A)

A comprehensive list of the largest displacements in (see annex B)

We arrived at our estimates for to by compiling,analysing and cross-checking reports from a wide rangeof sources, including governments, national disaster lossdatabases, humanitarian clusters and working groups,UNagencies, the International Organisation for Migration(IOM), the International Federation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC), NGOs, research institutions,the media and private sector organisations. We take aninclusive, global approach to identifying displacement,but the availability and quality of sources varies greatlybetween countries and events. The data we used wasoriginally collected and published for a number of differ-ent purposes, and may not always have been gatheredfor statistical analysis of displacement. This creates areporting bias towards countries with better and moreaccessible information, larger-scale events and internallydisplaced people (IDPs) living in formally monitored evac-uation and shelter sites. The majority of those displaced,however, tend to take refuge in spontaneous, dispersed

settings and with host families (see annex A).

Our Global Estimates reports do not capture figures forprolonged or ongoing displacement following disastersin previous years, or which continues to take place duringthe year in which they struck. Ad hoc case studies andreports on such situations do exist, but post-emergencymonitoring and reporting is generally weak and consti-

tutes a significant global blind spot. As such, the extent towhich displaced peoples movement patterns, transitionallocations and destinations can be analysed statisticallyis highly limited.

The data for to highlights some importantglobal patterns, but the six-year period is too short tounderstand displacement trends. In order to create alonger-term perspective, we used a complementary meth-odology to model historical displacement trends at theglobal and regional levels since . The results of thisprototype modelling, which are presented here for the

first time, are based on global disaster loss data covering countries, which we then calibrated with our higherresolution estimates for onwards. The methodologyand its limitations are explained further in annex A.


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Box 1.1: Key terms and concepts

Displacement refers to the involuntary or forced movement, evacuation or relocation of individuals orgroups of people from their homes or places of habitual residence.2Many factors contribute to peoplebecoming displaced, of which a natural hazard may be the most immediate and obvious trigger.

Displacement puts people at greater risk of impoverishment and discrimination, and creates specific needsamong affected populations.3

The global estimates do not differentiate or quantify the number of people displaced either temporarily orpermanently across internationally recognised state borders. It is widely recognised, however, that the vastmajority who flee disasters remain within their country of residence. As set out in the Guiding Principles onInternal Displacement, they are described as internally displaced people (IDPs).4

Displacement may take place over both short and long distances and include complex patterns of movementbeyond initial flight. From their first place of refuge, such as an evacuation centre, IDPs may move to differenttransitional shelter sites and make temporary visits home before they are able to achieve a durable solutionto their displacement (see section ).

Evacuations.

People who evacuatetheir homes to avoid loss of life and exposure to serious and immediate harm inrapidly developing emergency or disaster situations are considered displaced. This includes anticipatoryor pre-emptive evacuations. National and local authorities have primary responsibility for preparing for andimplementing effective evacuations, sometimes with the support of national and international organisations.For evacuations to respect human rights and be lawful, they must be necessary to ensure the safety andhealth of those affected or at risk, and all measures must be taken to minimise displacement and its adverseeffects (guiding principle ).5As such, evacuations, and particularly large-scale ones, should be undertaken as a measure of last resort,when sheltering in situ does not provide protection from the threat or would entail a higher risk thanevacuating. Decisions on whether to evacuate or not may be different at different points in the evolution of acrisis. Evacuations are normally undertaken on the assumption that they will be short-lived, but safe, promptand sustainable return depends of the effects of a disaster in home areas and prospects for recovery. As forIDPs in other situations, evacuees rights and dignity should be respected in accordance with the Guiding

Principles.6

Causes of displacement are multiple and often inter-related. This report focuses on disasters broughton by natural hazards, but it is also important to look beyond the immediate triggers of displacement tounderstand and address the underlying drivers of vulnerability and risk that both cause and result fromit. People become displaced when a disaster renders them homelessby destroying their dwellings ormaking them uninhabitable, but they can also be forced to flee when other conditions vital to survival in theirhome areas, such as access to livelihoodsand basic services, are severely disrupted, or when they areexposed to threats arising from deteriorating security.

Natural hazards are events or conditions that originate in the natural environment and may pose a severeor extreme threat to people and assets in exposed areas. They include geophysical, climate and weather-

related events. The impact of natural hazards is often strongly influenced by human activity, including urbandevelopment, deforestation and dam water releases. Geographical location is important in determining thetypes of natural hazard to which a country is exposed.Natural hazards vary greatly in terms of warning times, the speed of their onset and their duration, intensityand impacts. Approaches to mitigating impacts need to be tailored to each type of event and to the specificcontext of exposed areas, populations and assets.

A disasteris defined as the serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causingwidespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affectedcommunity or society to cope using its own resources.7They result from a combination of risk factors: theexposure of people and assets to single or multiple hazards, and pre-existing vulnerabilities including theirlack of capacity to cope with shocks. Humanitarians use the term primarily in relation to natural hazards, but it
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can also be applied to other types of crisis, such as those created by conflict. Displacement that takes placeas a result of both natural hazards and conflict is discussed in section 5.The difference between voluntary migrationand forced displacement is difficult to distinguish in graduallyevolving or chronic crisis situations. Rapid-onset hazards create a shock or crisis trigger to which displacementis a forced response. Hazards that evolve gradually, such as drought, combine with other factors to produce

severe food and livelihood insecurity, and are less likely to be identified as a direct trigger or tipping point fordisplacement. Slow-onset hazards allow time for people at risk to consider their options, whether they have themeans to avoid or prepare for the effects of a disaster before they reach a crisis point and become displaced.Migration may be undertaken as a pre-emptive or adaptive measure, and as such is a way of avoiding forceddisplacement.

Repeated and frequent displacement. Recurrent and frequent patterns of displacement and returnare seen in countries that are highly exposed to natural hazards. Contrary to common assumptions arisingfrom the widespread early returns that follow many rapid-onset disasters, many returnees do not achievelasting solutions to their displacement. Statistics may also mask returns that are unsafe, unsustainable andin some cases forced. Return in and of itself is far from an end of the story if the risks of future disaster anddisplacement are not reduced. Repeated cycles of displacement have cumulative effects on vulnerability and

resilience, driving further risk and setting back recovery and development efforts if left unmitigated.Repeated temporary displacement may indicate that people are trapped in unsustainable and deterioratingconditions. Those without the resources or assistance to consider relocating permanently to safer and moresustainable locations often undertake repeated movements over short distances.

Prolonged and protracted displacement. For many people who are displaced by disasters, the possibilityof returning home is either significantly delayed or not an option (see section 2.1.3). A temporary evacuationmay morph into prolonged displacement. People may also be displaced to areas where they continue to beexposed to similar or different hazards and risks (see section 5). People with the fewest resources and leastcapacity to mitigate and recover, and who are most vulnerable to human rights abuses, are disproportionatelyaffected and at the greatest risk of prolonged and protracted displacement.A protracted situation is defined as one in which the process of achieving a durable solution has stalled,and/or IDPs become marginalised because their economic, social and cultural rights are either violated orinsufficiently protected.8People caught in such situations also face the risk of further cycles of disaster anddisplacement. The monitoring of people living in prolonged and protracted displacement and the attentionthey receive tends to diminish over time, constituting a major blind spot and protection concern.

A durable solution is achieved a) when IDPs have returned home, integrated locally in their places ofrefuge or settled elsewhere in the country in way that is lasting and sustainable, b) when they no longer havespecific assistance and protection needs linked to their displacement, and c) when they can exercise theirhuman rights without discrimination.9Whichever settlement option they choose to pursue, IDPs usually face continuing problems and risks thatrequire support beyond the acute phase of a disaster. Achieving a durable solution is a gradual and complexprocess that needs timely and coordinated efforts to address humanitarian, development and human rightsconcerns, including measures to prevent and prepare for further displacement.10

Further discussion of reporting terms can be found in the notes on methodology in annex A.
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The global scale of displacement:patterns and trends

Key findings and messages

2013

Almost million people were displaced by disastersin at least countries, almost three times as many aswere newly displaced by conflict and violence.

Thirty-seven of the -plus recorded events involvedthe displacement of more than , people. TyphoonHaiyan, which caused the largest displacement of theyear, forced a million more people to flee their homesin the Philippines than in Africa, the Americas, Europeand Oceania combined.

The frequency of mass displacements in countries mostvulnerable to natural hazards highlights the need forincreased national and international support for disasterprevention and preparedness measures. In the Philip-pines, three major disasters struck in the space of fourmonths - typhoon Haiyan displaced . million people, ty-phoon Trami . million and an earthquake in the CentralVisayas region ,. The latter was the worlds largestdisplacement of the year triggered by an earthquake.As in previous years, most of the largest displacementstook place in populous Asian countries. Typhoons,floods and earthquakes in China and the Philippinesaccounted for of the largest displacements.Rainy season floods in sub-Saharan Africa triggered sixof the largest displacements relative to population size.Five took place in Niger, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan andSomalia - neighbouring, semi-arid countries of the Sahelregion with populations who are also affected by droughtand conflict. The sixth took place in Mozambique.

High exposure to hazards in the most developed coun-tries also led to some of the worlds largest displace-ments. Typhoon Man-yi in the Chubu region of Japandisplaced , people, tornados in the US state ofOklahoma , and floods in Alberta, Canada ,.

2008 to 2013

Disasters displaced an average of million peopleeach year between and . There are significantdifferences in the estimates from year to year, but theannual total has always exceeded million.Major disasters are irregular and relatively infrequent,but they cause displacement on a huge scale when theydo occur. Thirty-five disasters that each forced morethan a million people to leave their homes accounted for per cent of all displacement over the six-year period.Relatively small but far more frequent events tend to beunder-reported, meaning that figures for small events

are likely to be significant underestimates and their re-

peated and cumulative impacts are not widely appre-ciated. Events that each displaced fewer than ,people made up per cent of all those recorded, butaccounted for just five per cent of the total number ofpeople displaced. Increased investment in disaster riskreduction measures, such as better urban planning, themaintenance of flood defences and the introduction ofbuilding standards for housing and other infrastructurethat can withstand smaller hazards, could prevent ormitigate much of their impact.

Trends since 1970

Significantly more people are displaced by disastersnow than in the s. In absolute terms, the risk ofdisplacement is estimated to have doubled in years.

A number of factors help to explain the rising trend:More people are exposed to natural hazards andaffected by disasters than years ago, particularlyin urban areas of more vulnerable countries. Theglobal population has increased by per cent sincethe s, and urban populations have grown by per cent. Urban populations in developing countrieshave risen by per cent.Improvements in disaster preparedness and responsemeasures, including early warning systems and emer-gency evacuations, mean that more people now sur-vive disasters but many of the survivors are displaced.

The collection of data on disasters and displacementhas improved, meaning that we know more about theimpacts of recent disasters than we did about thosethat happened years ago. That said, large gapsand the varying quality of available information meanthat data collection needs to be better still.

For five of the last six years, the global scale of newdisplacement has been below the trend since .The exception was , when more than millionpeople were displaced. If patterns revert to the longer-

term trend, higher average levels of displacement areexpected in the coming years.Demographic trends and vulnerability will continue to bethe primary drivers of displacement risk in the comingdecades, and changes in the frequency and intensityof extreme weather events are expected to add to it.

The infrequent and random nature of the largest haz-ards makes annual displacement levels difficult topredict. This further highlights the need for greaterinvestment in disaster risk reduction, climate changeadaptation and preparedness measures that addresspeoples underlying vulnerability to extreme weather

and the risk of major earthquake and volcano disasters.


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All countries with new displacement50,000 people or more displacedAt least 3,500 people displaced per million inhabitants

Niger

Floods201,000; 11,658/m

Chad

Floods117,000; 9,610/m

Mozambique

Floods186,000; 7,390/m

Kenya

Floods170,000; 3,862/m

South Sudan

Floods100,000; 8,963/m

Sudan

Floods320,000; 8,927/m

Worldwide22 million peoplenewly displaced

St. Vincent andthe Grenadines

Storm2,000; 23,225/m

Disaster-induced displacement worldwide in 2013

Largest events in 15 countries with highest absolute and per capita displacement


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Figure 2.12013: largest displacement events

Niger: FloodsUS: Oklahoma tornadoesPhilippines: Tropical depression ShanshanChina: Gansu earthquakeJapan: Typhoon Man-yiSudan: FloodsPhilippines: Bohol earthquakeChina: FloodsPhilippines: Typhoon NariChina: Typhoon SoulikChina: Typhoon UtorChina: Typhoon UsagiVietnam: Typhoon HaiyanChina: Typhoon Fitow

India: Cyclone PhailinIndia: FloodsBangladesh: Cyclone MahasenChina: FloodsPhilippines: Typhoon TramiPhilippines: Typhoon Haiyan

Paraguay: FloodsPhilippines: Typhoon Nari

Somalia: FloodsSri Lanka: Cyclone Mahasen

Solomon Islands: TsunamiSaint Lucia: Storm

Bangladesh: Cyclone MahasenNamibia: Floods

Mozambique: FloodsVietnam: Typhoon Haiyan

Sri Lanka: FloodsSudan: Floods

South Sudan: FloodsChad: Floods

Cambodia: FloodsSeychelles: Storm

Niger: FloodsPhilippines: Typhoon Trami

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: StormPhilippines: Typhoon Haiyan

201,000219,000223,000227,000260,000320,000349,000354,000406,000500,000513,000587,000800,000826,000

1,000,0001,042,0001,100,0001,577,0001,744,000

4,095,000

4,1004,1004,9005,4005,7005,9007,1007,3007,4008,8008,9008,9009,0009,600

9,80010,50011,70017,700

23,200

41,700

A. AbsoluteTotal number of people displaced

B. RelativePeople displaced per million inhabitants


2.1 Displacement in 2013

2.1.1 The global estimate for 2013Millions of people are forced to flee their homes everyyear as a result of disasters triggered by natural hazards.In , rapid-onset disasters associated with climatic and

weather hazards such as floods, storms and wildfires, andgeophysical hazards such as earthquakes and volcaniceruptions, displaced . million people in at least countries (see global map on the previous page). This isalmost three times as many as newly displaced by conflictand violence in , . million as reported in May .

2.1.2 The largest mass displacements in 2013Figures .a and .b list the largest displacements of in absolute terms and per million inhabitants of thegiven countries. Figures relative to population size are in-tended to provide some indication of the pressure that the

sheer scale of displacement may place on state capacity.More than events were recorded during the year, ofwhich involved mass movements of , to fourmillion-plus people. Seventeen of the largest eventstook place in Asia, with typhoons, floods and earthquakesin China and the Philippines accounting for of them.Hundreds of thousands of people were also displaced byflooding in Sudan and Niger, two of the countries rankedlowest in the world in terms of development, and by torna-dos and storms in Oklahoma in the US, one of the richest .

disaster and typhoon Man-yi in the Chubu region of Ja-pan. Eighteen of the largest displacements were theresult of severe or extreme weather hazards, the excep-tions being major earthquakes in Bohol in the Philippinesand Gansu in China.

The Philippines suffered the two largest displacementsof . In September, widespread flooding in the met-ropolitan area of Manila in the wake of typhoon Tramidisplaced . million people, and in November typhoonHaiyan, known locally as Yolanda, displaced . millionacross central regions of the country. Many thousands ofthose affected fled to metropolitan Manila (see section..).Six months earlier, the Bohol earthquake displacednearly , people, including IDPs who had fled previ-ous earthquakes. The three disasters combined stretchedboth national and international resources to the limit.

From the Philippines, Haiyan tracked north across Vietnam,where it triggered the mass evacuation of around ,people, putting the displacement it caused there among theten largest events in both absolute and per capita terms.

In south Asia, cyclone Mahasen forced the evacuationof around . million people in Bangladesh in May, and inOctober widespread monsoon season floods displacedover a million in several Indian states. In the same month,cyclone Phailin, the strongest to hit India in years,brought widespread devastation to eastern coastal areasand forced the evacuation of another million people. Im-proved preparedness, including evacuations, was creditedwith limiting the death toll to fewer than people.

Low and middle-income developing countries are dispro-portionately represented on the list, with only two eventstaking place in high-income countries the Oklahoma


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C. Events ranked according to absoluteand relative figures combined

Event Country

1 Typhoon Haiyan Philippines

2 Typhoon Trami Philippines

3 Tropical cyclone Mahasen Bangladesh

4 Typhoon Haiyan Vietnam5 Typhoon Nari Philippines

6 Bohol earthquake Philippines

7 Rainy season floods Sudan

8 Rainy season floods Niger

9 Floods Sri Lanka

10 Floods Mozambique

11 Rainy season floods Kenya

12 Monsoon floods Cambodia

13 Rainy season floods Chad

14 Tropical cyclone Mahasen Sri Lanka

15 Rainy season floods South Sudan

The disasters in Asia dominate the list of largest eventsin absolute terms, but of the largest events relativeto population size were in sub-Saharan Africa. Five of thelargest displacements triggered by widespread floodstook place in Niger, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan and So-malia - neighbouring, semi-arid countries of the Sahel

region with highly vulnerable populations who are also af-fected by drought and conflict. Other flood displacementstook place in the southern African countries of Mozam-bique and Namibia, while a storm led to displacement inthe small islands of the Seychelles archipelago. Four ofthe twenty relatively largest displacements occurred insmall island developing states like the Seychelles - alsolinked to storms in the Caribbean countries of St. Vincentand the Grenadines and St. Lucia- and to a tsunami inthe Solomon Islands.

A list of all the large displacements of , or more

people in is provided in annex B, including location,date and source information.

2.1.3. Spotlight on the largest displacementof 2013: the typhoon Haiyan disaster in thePhilippines

Haiyan was the largest typhoon ever recorded. It madelandfall in the central island regions of the Philippineson November, causing widespread devastation andthe largest displacement of (see map .). Around. million people were forced to flee their homes, morethan a quarter of all those affected by the disaster (seefigure .). Beyond the sheer scale of the displacement

caused, data from government and other sources revealsa complex - if incomplete and somewhat disjointed - pic-ture of IDPs movements and their displacement-relatedneeds in the six months after Haiyan struck.

Figure 2.2Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines

A. Displaced people asa proportion of the totalaffected population

B. Displaced peoplelocated in collective sitesversus dispersed settings(including host families)

4m in dispersedsettings

(97.5%)

101,500 inevacuationcentres (2.5%)

4.1mpeople

displaced

Source of data: Government, NDRR MC/DSWD, 2 January 2014

(29%)

14

.1mi

llion

peopleaffe

cte

d

Following pre-emptive and immediate flight from danger

in wide areas along the typhoons path, the vast majorityof IDPs sheltered in dispersed locations, including a sig-nificant number who took refuge with family or friends.Others sheltered in overcrowded public buildings desig-nated as temporary evacuation centres, or in informal,spontaneous sites, tent cities and, later on, in transitionalbunkhouses.Most IDPs remained within the areas af-fected by the typhoon, many of them within or near theirlocal barangaysor districts, but the movement of thou-sands of people between different regions and towardslarge urban centres was also observed (see map .).

Staying as near to their homes as safely possible is oftencritical for IDPs for a number of reasons - to ensure theirproperty is protected, to maintain links with sources oflivelihoods and social networks, to access informationand external assistance and to enable early steps to-wards reconstruction and recovery. In the aftermath ofHaiyan, families split up in order to access livelihoodopportunities elsewhere, with some members makingtemporary visits to their home while the rest remainedin their place of refuge. In others, some family membersstayed at sites near their homes, while the rest shelteredin other locations with better support, safety or accessto basic services, including schools and medical care.


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Map 2.1 Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines: scale of displacement in affected areas and locationof IDPs in evacuation centres 10 days after onset

Source: Map - IOM/CCCM Cluster, Philippines;Data - Government, DSWD/DROMIC

Severity of displacement(based on number of IDPs)

IDPs in evacuation centres

Less severe

Severe

Most severe

Less than 4,000

4,000 - 14,000

More than 14,000

VII

CENTRAL

VISAYAS

VI

WESTERN

VISAYAS

Tacloban

NORTHERN

MINDANAO

CARAGA

VIII

EASTERN

VISAYAS

BICOL

REGION


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Map 2.2 Typhoon Haiyan disaster, Philippines:IDP movements from key transport hubs in theaffected areas to cities across different regionsduring the first month after onset (15 November -6 December 2013)

Borongan

GuiuanOrmoc

Cebu

Tacloban

Manila

50 km0

Note: Coloured lines represent different paths of movementoriginating from collective transport hubs (ferries, buses andplanes).Source of data: Migration Outflow Desk (MOD) records,IOM/CCCM Cluster, Philippines.

The government and humanitarian organisations distrib-uted emergency and recovery shelter kits and implement-ed livelihood and cash-for-work programmes in affectedareas, but six months into the response the need formaterials and basic services was still high. Around thesame time, the authorities began allowing humanitarian

organisations to build transitional accommodation in ar-eas designated as unsafe for permanent habitation, torelieve the situation of many thousands of families stillliving in makeshift shelters. Identifying and accessingland where safer and more permanent settlements canbe rebuilt or developed from scratch remains a majorobstacle to IDPs sustainable recovery.

Those unable to return to their homes and begin theprocess of recovery from their displacement are of par-ticular concern.Six months on, around , IDPswere uncertain whether they would be allowed to return

at all due to government plans to designate some originalhome areas as no dwelling zones unsafe for humanhabitation. They also faced uncertainty about what planswould be put in place and assistance provided for theirpermanent relocation.These IDPs included most of the,-plus people still living in collective sites, and anunknown number still dependent on the hospitality ofhost families. Many were in the poorest and hardest-hitregions, where hosts were likely to have had only limitedresources to meet their own basic needs. IDPs who doreturn to these zones face the risk of eviction from them,particularly those who were informally settled in thembefore the typhoon struck and who do not formally ownthe homes and land where they lived previously.

Thousands of displaced families still living in temporaryshelters continue to be particularly vulnerable to seasonaltyphoons and floods. The risk they face is further aggra-vated by a shortage of evacuation centres following thedestruction of buildings used for emergency shelter.On July the government announced the official startof the long phase of recovery and rehabilitation followingHaiyan; eleven days later, the first typhoon of the year,named Rammasun, made landfall in the Bicol region. Ap-proximately million people were affected across seven

regions, including more than , people displacedat the typhoons height in the Haiyan-affected EasternVisayas (Region VIII).Strengthening disaster preven-tion and preparedness, even as new disasters happen,remains high on the governments agenda.

Once conditions permit, IDPs have the right to returnvoluntarily, in safety and with dignity, to the homes theywere displaced from and to reclaim their property andpossessions.Return movements following Haiyan havenot been comprehensively monitored, but informationfrom a survey of IDPs in evacuation sites a couple ofweeks after the typhoon, and from shelter assessments,shows that the majority of those displaced returned totheir homes or as near as possible to them within hours,days or weeks of the storm passing. Some IDPs whofled further afield were also reported to have returnedwithin weeks.

These patterns are similar to those seen in previous dis-asters in the Philippines and in rapid-onset weather-relat-ed disasters in other countries. That said, more than twomillion people were still without adequate or permanentshelter six months after Haiyan.Shelter assessmentssuggest that IDPs who returned early most often didso to live in damaged homes or in makeshift sheltersor temporary sites in still devastated areas. Some whoreturned a few months after the typhoon passed were stillliving in tent cities.Others delayed their return becausethey lacked the means to repair or rebuild their homesand because there was still no access to basic services

in their home areas.


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Figure 2.3The scale of global displacement bydisasters, 2008 - 201316

0

10

20

30

40

201320122011201020092008

Peopledisplaced(million

s)


36.5

16.715.0

42.4

32.4

21.9

Average year, 27.5m

Figure 2.4Annual displacement by region, 2008 - 2013

Note: The largest events in the peak year for each region are highlighted. Source: IDMC estimates as of 22 August 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30OceaniaEuropeAsiaAmericasAfrica

201320122011201020092008

Pakistan and Chinafloods

West and centralAfrica floods

Central Europe,Russia and UK

floods

Haiti and Chileearthquakes

Fiji Cyclone Tomas

Pe

opledisplaced(millions

)

Figure 2.52008 - 2013: displacement by scale of events

0

10

20

30

40

201320122011201020092008

Peopledisplaced(million

s)

Large events (100,000 - 999,999 displaced) Mega events (>1 million displaced)Small-medium events (


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2.2 Displacement between 2008 and 2013

2.2.1 Year-to-year differences in the global totalsThere are significant differences in the global estimatesfrom year to year, but the annual total since hasalways equalled or exceeded million (see figure .).

Between and an average of million peoplewere displaced. Regional figures showed similar variation,with peaks for Asia, the Americas and Oceania in ,for Africa in and for Europe in (see figure .).

Box 2.1 Displacement by small but frequent events: the tip of the iceberg?

Figure 2.6Number of displacement events atdifferent scales over a year (2013)

0

50

100

150

200

100+1,000+10,000+100,000+1m+3m+

Number of displaced people per event

Numberofreportedevents


Smaller displacement events occur far morefrequently than larger ones, as seen in the datarecorded for 2013 (see figure 2.6). Events that

each displaced fewer than 100,000 peoplemade up 88 per cent of all those recordedbetween 2008 and 2013 (figure 2.5bii). Smallerevents tend to be under-reported17, however,meaning that figures for small events are l ikelyto be significant underestimates and theirrepeated and cumulative impacts are poorlyunderstood.

IDMC includes data without any lower thresholdon the size of displacements recorded, butthe methodology used and the data availablecreates a strong bias towards larger, more

visible and more widely reported disasters. Inmany countries, information on smaller eventsis scattered at best and unavailable at worst.This reporting bias has been reduced for somecountries in the 2013 data as a result of betteraccess to information on national disaster losses and additional time put in to research. At least 72 countriescurrently operate a national disaster loss database, of which 54 employ the DesInventar methodology, whichaddresses data collection on small as well as larger events. Such databases were a key source of informationfor seven countries in particular in 2013 - Colombia, Indonesia, Panama, Peru, Sri Lanka, South Korea andTimor-Leste. IDMC also invested time extracting and aggregating data from more than 40 US governmentreports on emergencies published during the year.18As a result, these countries have much better data onsmall-scale events and more recorded displacements than other countries.

In the vast majority of countries, however, current estimates for smaller-scale displacements may be just thetip of the iceberg. The detailed data available for Indonesia includes more than 180 events, while the averagenumber recorded per country is between five and six. This provides a sense of the size of the data gap,especially for the most vulnerable countries exposed to frequent hazards.

The number of people who flee their homes each time may be relatively small, but frequent and repeateddisplacement can erode assets and have a cumulative effect on poverty and vulnerability. The impacts ofsmaller-scale events are also amplified when they affect communities still recovering in the aftermath oflarge disasters. Much of the displacement caused by smaller-scale hazards would be preventable withincreased investment in disaster risk reduction measures, such as better urban planning, the maintenanceof flood defences and the introduction of building standards for housing and other infrastructure that canwithstand such events.

The year-to-year variance in global and regional totals ismostly due to the relatively small number of major disas-ters that cause mass displacement. Forty-three disasters,each of which forced at least , people to flee theirhomes, caused per cent of overall displacement in .Within those figures, six events, each of which displaced

more than a million people, accounted for per cent (seeannex B and figure .a).


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Between and , displacements that each causedthe displacement of more than , people caused per cent of overall displacement. Thirty-four disastersthat each displaced more than a million people accountedfor per cent, though just two per cent of all eventsrecorded (see figure .b).

2.3 The rising trend in displacement since1970

In order to establish a historical view of trends in dis-placement induced by disasters, IDMC used disasterloss data related to the same types of natural hazardsto compile modelled estimates for each year from to . This methodology is explained in annex A.. Thisbroader dataset suggests that significantly more peo-ple are displaced by disasters now than in the s. In

absolute terms, the risk of displacement is estimated tohave more than doubled in four decades (see figure .).

Figure 2.7Modelled global trend in disaster-induced displacement since 1970

0

20

40

20102000199019801970

Peopledisplaced(millions

)

Linear best fit trend


A number of factors explain the rising trend. The globalpopulation has grown by per cent since , and

the urban growth rate in developing countries has beenmore than three times that figure.This means that morepeople are exposed to hazards now than were yearsago, and that they are concentrated in more vulnerablecountries (see table .). Improvements in disaster prepar-edness and response, including early warning systemsand timely evacuations, also mean that more people nowsurvive disasters but many of the survivors becomedisplaced.

Table 2.1 Global population trends

Percent increase( - )

World population 3.70billion

7.24billion

96%

Urban population 1.35billion

3.88billion

187%

Urban population indeveloping countries

0.68billion

2.90billion

326%

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs,

It is important to note a certain amount of reporting biasbecause of significant improvements in the collection ofdata since the s. It is still not systematic in many coun-tries, but we know more about the impacts of disastersthat occur now than we did about those that happened years ago. The average number of tropical cyclones

that made landfall each year was roughly constant fromthe s to , but the number of reported disastersbrought on cyclones increased nearly threefold over thesame time period.

For five of the last six years, the global scale of newdisplacement has been below the trend since . Theexception was , when more than million peoplewere displaced. This is because most observed displace-ment is associated with large-scale hazards that occurinfrequently. The to and to datasetscover too short a period to properly capture the distribu-tion of events that recur in -year cycles, let alone moreextreme ones that might only occur once a century oreven once every years. If recent patterns revert tothe longer-term trend, there will be higher average levelsof displacement in the future. Demographic trends andvulnerability to hazards will continue to be the primarydrivers of displacement risk in the coming decades, andchanges in the frequency and intensity of extreme weath-er events related to global climate change are expectedto add to it.

The random nature of the largest hazards makes annu-al displacement levels difficult to predict. This further

highlights the need for greater investment in disasterrisk reduction, climate change adaptation and prepar-edness measures that address peoples vulnerability toextreme weather and climate variability and the risk ofmajor earthquake and volcano disasters.


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Regional and national exposure and vulnerability

Key findings and messages

Developing countries account for the vast majority ofdisplacement caused by disasters each year - morethan per cent in , and per cent between and . Those with the lowest development levelsand small island developing states are particularly vul-nerable and they are disproportionately representedamong countries with the highest displacement figuresin absolute terms or relative to their population sizes.

Repeated events leave little time for recovery betweenone disaster and wave of displacement and the next.

Eighty-eight countries experienced a number of dis-placement events involving more than , peopleover the six-year period.

Global displacement trends are driven primarily by pop-ulation size and growth, but also by vulnerability. Theincrease in the number of people exposed to hazards hasoutstripped authorities ability to reduce the vulnerabilityof their populations, particularly in urban areas. Theavailability of better information and the fact that morepeople survive disasters than in the past are also factors.

To offset population growth, governments and theirpartners will need to step up efforts to reduce peoplesexposure and vulnerability by adopting and enforcingbetter land-use plans and building regulations, address-ing income inequality and improving conditions for largepopulations living in informal settlements.

The average number of people displaced by disastershas risen over the past four decades in all regions ofthe world, but the trend has been most marked in Asia.More vulnerable people are exposed to hazards theretoday than were years ago, and it is the only regionwhose share of global displacement has exceeded itspercentage of the worlds population.Between and , . per cent of displacementtook place in Asia. The region accounted for the

largest displacements of and the five countrieswith the highest displacement levels: the Philippines,China, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Given that Africas population is growing more quicklythan other regions, peoples exposure to hazards anddisplacement risk is expected to increase faster therein the coming decades. Its population is predicted todouble by .

A small number of unexpectedly extreme hazards ledto high levels of displacement in the Americas between and . They included hurricane Sandy, whichaffected the US, Cuba and other countries in , and

the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile.

Pacific island countries are disproportionately affectedby disasters and the displacement they cause, becausewhen a hazard strikes it can severely affect a very highproportion of their inhabitants. This pattern is also seenin small island developing states in other regions.

Compared with other regions, Europe experiencedlower levels of displacement relative to its populationsize between and . That said, severe floodsin central Europe, particularly Germany and the CzechRepublic, and in Russia and the UK, made a peakyear.

3.1 Displacement by region

Developing countries experience the vast majority ofdisplacement caused by disasters each year, accountingfor more than per cent in and per cent between and . High-income countries are also affected,however. Both absolute numbers and trends stronglyreflect the number of people exposed to natural hazards.

Most displacement since has taken place in Asia,where more people are exposed to natural hazards thanin any other region. The largest events of in abso-lute terms all occurred there (see figure . and annex B),and more than million people were displaced during theyear, or . per cent of the global total. Typhoon Haiyanalone forced a million more people to flee their homes inthe Philippines than in Africa, the Americas, Europe andOceania combined.

The same pattern emerges between and , withAsia accounting for . per cent of the global total, de-spite having only per cent which corresponds with its. per cent share of the world population (see figure.a and .). Displacement in the region relative to its

population size is well above the global average (seefigure .aii and bii), and has increased faster over thepast four decades than in any other (see figure .). Morepeople are exposed to hazards in Asia now compared to, and more vulnerable people are exposed.

In Africa, . million people were displaced in , ac-counting for . per cent of the global total. The regionalso accounted for . per cent of global total between and (see figures .a and b). Extreme and wide-spread flooding in west and central Africa made apeak year, with . million people displaced.The propor-

tion of global displacement that happened in Africa is less


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than its proportion of the worlds population ( per cent)because, compared to other regions, a smaller share ofAfricas population is exposed to intense hazards thatdrive the global figures (see figure .).

Exposure to hazards that trigger displacement is expect-

ed to increase faster in Africa than in other regions inthe coming years and decades. Its population is growingmore quickly and is predicted to double between and, while Asias is predicted to level off and begin tofall in the next few decades (see figure .). This makesit all the more important for the regions governments

and their partners to reduce peoples vulnerability andimprove their resilience to natural hazards.

The Americas had an unusually quiet hurricane season in and the region did not experience any major geophysi-cal disasters either. Almost , people were displaced,

accounting for only . per cent of global total (see figure.a). In the six-year period, .m people displaced in theregion accounted for . per cent of the global total. Thesefigures are the consequence of a small number of majordisasters and the relatively low vulnerability of the popula-tion to hazards. These largest disasters included hurricane

Figure 3.1Global displacement by region, 2013 and 2008 - 2013

Asia Africa Americas Oceania Europe

200

4.1% 892,000

10.1% 16.6m

8.6% 14.1m

0.3% 417,000

0.2% 295,000

8.1% 1.8m

0.7% 149,000

0.1% 18,000

87.1%19.1m

Note: Absolute figures below 1m are rounded to the nearest 1,000. Relative figures are rounded to the nearest 100.Source: IDMC estimates as of 22 August 2014

80.9%133.3m

500

900

1,500

4,500

Oceania

Europe

Americas

Africa

Asia

Oceania

Europe

Americas

Africa

Asia

i. Absolute (total people displaced) ii. Relative

(people displaced per million inhabitants)

Asia Americas Africa Oceania Europe

100

1,400

2,200

3,000

5,300

A. 2013

i. Absolute (total people displaced) ii. Relative(people displaced per million inhabitants)

B. 2008 - 2013

Average = 3,000

Average = 2,400


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Figure 3.2Total world population by region(2008 - 2013 average)

14%

941.66m

15% 1.07b

10%

726.05m

1%

35.

201409 Global Estimates

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