2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios

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Twitter: #ukenergy email: [email protected] UK Future Energy Scenarios 2014 Richard Smith: Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

description

Each year, we provide detailed analysis of a range of credible and plausible energy scenarios out to 2035 and 2050 that cover a range of issues, including where our energy will come from in future, projected changes in demand and whether the UK will meet its stated environmental emissions targets. The scenarios are based on information and insight from right across the industry, rather than simply the voice of National Grid, because they are developed using a rigorous and robust process that encompasses an enormous amount of stakeholder engagement throughout the year.

Transcript of 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios

Page 1: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios

Twitter: #ukenergyemail: [email protected]

UK Future Energy Scenarios 2014Richard Smith: Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

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Twitter: #ukenergyemail: [email protected]

Our journey so farCordi O’Hara: Director, Market Operation

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We all want to understand what thefuture journey might look like

Shar

e of

tota

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use

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Carbon intensity

~50%

~0%~800gCO2e/kWh ~0gCO2e/kWh

Electricity

Gas

Oil

19902010

2020

2030

2050

A ‘Low Carbon Life’ pathway to 2050:19902010

2020

2030

20502050

1990

201020202030

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Our vision of the future affects & informs how important decisions are made…Development of

transmission systems

European developments

Supply & demandfor the year ahead

Security of supply& decarbonisation

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Twitter: #ukenergyemail: [email protected]

Scoping the future energy landscapeRichard Smith: Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

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We follow an annual cycle ofscenario development

Once our axioms have been defined, they underpin our detailed modelling and drive our specific electricity and gas, demand and supply scenarios.

Modelling

Our stakeholder engagement allows us to listen to your views, which are vital to our outputs. They drive our processes and inform both our scenarios and our consultation process.

Your Views

The scenarios are the end result and a vision of the future that stakeholders have informed. The publication of the Future Energy Scenarios document marks the start of our annual process and the continuation of our stakeholder consultation.

Future Energy Scenarios

An axiom is a premise or starting point of reasoning. The axioms that we produce are a reflection pf the stakeholder feedback that we receive through our consultation process. These axioms influence our modelling.

Axioms

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Everyone is a stakeholder in the future& we want the widest range of input…

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…which we use to develop plausible& credible evidence based scenarios every year…

Generic 5 stage gate process:

Stakeholder feedback

Stakeholder feedback

Input data /market intelligence /

stakeholder feedback

Benchmark data /market intelligence /

stakeholder feedback

1 Head of Energy

Strategy & Policy led Framework based on

feedback evidence Challenge & review

with NGET & NGG SO leadership & relevant teams

Sign-off at SO Exec.

2 Responsible manager

led (eg. Power Demand Manager)

Cogency & consistency check across work streams

Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts

Sign-off at Energy Strategy & Policy managers meeting

3 Responsible manager

led (eg. Power Demand Manager)

Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts

Internal model QA Sign-off at Energy

Strategy & Policy managers meeting

4 Responsible manager

led (eg. Power Demand Manager)

Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts

Internal model QA Sign-off at Energy

Strategy & Policy managers meeting

5 Responsible manager

led (eg. Power Demand Manager)

Energy Strategy & Policy leadership review

Process assurance Sign-off at Energy

Strategy & Policy managers meeting

Define scenario framework & agree axioms

Define analysis methods &

assumptionsDraft analysis Revise analysis Produce outputs

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…breaking down our view of the future& applying fit for purpose modelling techniques

Power demand modelling example:

Scaling factors based on historic trends for each sector adjusted on previous winter’s outturn, demand side response

Scaling factors based on historic trends and socio-economic / geospatial factors by technology class

RESIDENTIAL DEMANDLighting, appliances, heating (heat pumps), transport (EVs), housing growth, energy efficiency, behaviour, ‘SMART’Deterministic rule based & specific regression models

INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL DEMANDGDP, manufacturing output, non-manufacturing output, energy efficiency, energy pricesEconometric regression model

EXPORTSMarket intelligence & stakeholder data/evidenceDeterministic rule based model

Geographic demand (post-code analysis)

Peak, minimum and reactive power demand

Annual power demand

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Your feedback has fundamentally shaped our 2014 scenarios

“National Grid needs to tell an engaging story”

“introduce more Future Energy Scenarios”

“explore scenarios based around the energy trilemma”

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Jenny SaundersNational Energy Action

Sunita BaliExperian

SustainabilityLess emphasis

SustainabilityMore emphasis

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Twitter: #ukenergyemail: [email protected]

Our 2014 Future Energy ScenariosAlice Etheridge: Strategy Development Manager

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Our 2014 Future Energy Scenarios

Low Carbon Life

Gone Green

No Progression

SlowProgression

SustainabilityLess emphasis

SustainabilityMore emphasis

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No Progression

Economic: Slow UK economic recoveryPolitical: Inconsistent political statements within Government, resulting in investor uncertaintyTechnological: Gas is the preferred choice for generation over renewables. Little technological innovation occurs in the energy sectorSocial: Consumers not engaged with energy efficiency. Low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumpsEnvironmental: Targets are missed, no new environmental targets introduced

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Slow Progression

Economic: Slow UK economic recoveryPolitical: Political will for sustainability but financial constraints prevent delivery of policiesTechnological: Renewable generation chosen over low carbon generation. Low levels of innovation in the energy sectorSocial: Engaged consumers focus on drive for energy efficiency but with low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps due to affordabilityEnvironmental: Environment targets missed but hit later. New European targets introduced

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Low Carbon Life

Economic: Growing UK economyPolitical: Short term political volatility but long-term consensus around decarbonisationTechnological: Renewable generation at a local level. High innovation in the energy sectorSocial: High uptake of electric vehicles but consumers not focussed on energy efficiency. ‘Going Green’ is a by-product of purchasing desirable itemsEnvironmental: Carbon target hit. No new environmental targets introduced

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Gone Green

Economic: Growing UK economyPolitical: Domestic and European policy harmonisation, with long-term certainty providedTechnological: High levels of renewable generation with high innovation in the energy sectorSocial: Engaged consumers focussed on drive for energy efficiency. This results in high uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumpsEnvironmental: All targets hit, including new European targets post-2020