2014 Real Estate Report - Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT...2 traveling on the slick roads. What was...

2014 Real Estate Report Coldwell Banker Shook

Coldwell Banker Commercial Shook

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. U.S. ECONOMY AND RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

A. 2013 REVIEW………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….... 1

B. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH: HERKY-JERK………………………………………………………... 1

C. BUSINESS INVESTMENT…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2

D. EMPLOYMENT…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3

E. FISCAL MONETARY POLICY………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3

F. HOUSING: EXISTING SALES (UNITS)…………………………………………………………………………………… 4

G. HOUSING: EXISTING SALES (VALUE)………………………………………………………………………………….. 4

H. HOUSING: NEW CONSTRUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………. 5

I. HOUSING: CREDIT PERFORMANCE……………………………………………………………………………………. 5

J. HOUSING: DEMOGRAPHICS………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6

K. PROJECTIONS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6

II. TIPPECANOE COUNTY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

A. INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS……………………………………………………………………………………………. 7

B. SALES ACTIVITY: SINGLE FAMILY HOMES AND CONDOS.…..………………………………………………. 7

C. EXISTING HOME SALES ACTIVITY: PRICE RANGE………………………………………………………………… 8

D. EXISTING HOME SALES ACTIVITY: LOCATION…………………………………………………………………….. 9

E. EXISTING HOME SALES ACTIVITY: HOME VALUE……………………………………………………………….. 9

F. NEW CONSTRUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 10

G. OBSERVATIONS AND 2015 OUTLOOK………………………………………………………………………………. 10

III. TIPPECANOE COUNTY COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

A. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11

B. INVENTORIES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12

C. LAFAYETTE/WEST LAFAYETTE LEASE RATE VALUES…………………………………………………………… 13

D. PROPERTY VALUES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14

E. MARKET SEGMENT ACTIVITY…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16

F. TIPPECANOE COUNTY OBSERVATIONS & 2015 OUTLOOK…………………………………………………. 21

IV. RESIDENTIAL EXHIBITS……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 23

V. RESIDENTIAL ENDNOTES………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26

VI. RESIDENTIAL BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………………………………. 31

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I U.S. Economy and Residential Real Estate Market

A. 2103 Review

To analyze the 2014 national economic trends, one has to back up, revisit 2013 and establish the

economic context in which we began the year. In September, 2013, the Fed announced it 1) would

delay its earlier announced plan to scale back its program of purchasing financial assets until 2014

(Quantitative Easing) and 2) maintain the current Fed Funds rate well beyond the time the

unemployment rate declines below 6.5% (the benchmark previously announced). It later went on to

provide more specific guidance that it will use a recipe of economic indicators to determine when

upward adjustments to the Fed Funds rate will be made, versus sole reliance on the unemployment

rate. These announcements ultimately led to improved labor market conditions and an improved

economy as we left 2013. Adding to this sense of economic good cheer, a bipartisan budget agreement

was passed by Congress and signed by the President in December 2013, which removed anxiety of a

second Federal government shutdown.i

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew gradually during 2013, beginning at 2.7% in the first quarter,

dropping to 1.8% in the second, then growing to 4.5% and 3.5%, respectfully, in quarters three and four.

The year ended with an average 3.7% growth in GDP.ii That compares favorably to 1.6% growth in 2011

and 2.3% in 2012.iii

Housing, on the other hand, suffered in the latter part of 2013, triggered by modest increases in interest

rates, tight supply of inventory and the beginning of colder than normal weather in December. Existing

unit home sales, as an example, were down on a year to year basis in three of the last four months of

2013.iv

Now let’s look at 2014.

B. Gross Domestic Product Growth: Herky-Jerky

The 2014 US economy could be described as a small roller coaster ride. As strong as the fourth quarter

of 2013 was, the first quarter of 2014 was weak. GDP dropped by 2.1%, from the first quarter of 2013.v

Since the economic recovery began four years ago, the first quarter has always been the most difficult

quarter, but never as difficult as 2014.

In retrospect, part of the strength of the second half of 2013 was a substantial buildup of business

inventories (i.e. automobile). Economists suggest that it contributed to 1% of the 2013 GDP growth.vi

However, as is often the case, what goes up, must come down. The reduction of production to allow

inventories to run off to a more appropriate level was a quiet drag on the economy in early 2014.

Two additional contributors to the difficult first quarter were a softening in net exports early in the year

and a measurable (and seemingly unexplainable) decline in the delivery of medical services (the biggest

drop in healthcare services in 30 years).vii

A third, and more obvious contributor to the slow first quarter, was the brutal winter much of America

endured. Meteorologists report it was the coldest winter since the late 1970’s.viii With it came a

measurable slowdown in consumer “onsite” shopping. We all avoided going out in the cold weather or

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traveling on the slick roads. What was surprising was a coinciding slowdown in internet sales.

Consumer spending dropped by 0.2% in March, while real personal income grew for the fifth

consecutive months. It appears consumers were reducing debt and increasing their savings rate in 2014,

rather than spending.ix

Housing was the weakest link in the first quarter GDP chain. Existing homes, new construction and

multifamily all experienced year over year declines. In addition to bad weather, a lean supply of existing

homes, a shortage of buildable lots and lagging consumer confidence early in the year were the main

causes.x

In summary, there appear to be five issues that, collectively, dampened economic growth in the first

quarter: 1) business inventory runoff, 2) softening of net exports, 3) decline in healthcare services, 4)

lethargic residential real estate sales and 5) sagging consumer spending.

The question asked by most economists in early 2014 was whether the other strong fundamentals

supporting the economy would be sufficient enough to overcome the slow start and allow for a

respectable year of growth. Most economists projected “yes” and as it turns out they were right. GDP

grew by 4.5% in the second quarter and 3.9% in the third.xi The pace of growth continued to soften

slightly as we closed the year, perhaps at 2.5%. The GDP in 2014 is expected to land around 2.1%; lower

than 2013, but a stark contrast to the doldrums of the first quarter.xii

Let’s review the factors that led to or challenged the April/May turnaround in our national economy.

C. Business Investment

During the recession, both consumers and businesses reduced their spending habits, paid down debt

and stockpiled cash. The balance sheets of many US business concerns became as flush with cash as

they had been in recent decades. Some surveys suggest corporate America hoarded nearly $1.6 trillion

in cash.

Capital spending temporarily increased early in the recovery as firms replaced worn out equipment, but

once replaced, spending subsided as most manufacturers had excess capacity. In March, 2014

manufacturing utilization rose to a post-recession high of 79%. According to Maury Harris, economist

with USB, 80% is viewed to be the tipping point. A survey of corporate economists in April, 2014 reports

61% of the respondents expected to increase capital spending in 2014, up from 52% in 2013.xiii

The survey result became real as the year played out.xiv

2014 Year Over Year Change

Quarter 2 Quarter 3

Nonresidential fixed investment 9.7% 8.9%

Nonresidential investment in structures 12.6% 4.8%

Nonresidential investment in equipment 11.2% 11.0%

Business investment was at a record level in July and August.

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D. Employment

The news on the jobs front in 2014 is the most encouraging among all the economic sectors. A number

of significant measures were reported.

1. Monthly net new nonfarm jobs created averaged 180,000 in 2013. The monthly average for

each of the quarters in 2014 have or are projected to exceed 2013, including the difficult first

quarter (source: multiple Fannie Mae research articles).

Quarter (2014) Average net new nonfarm jobs created

1 190,000

2 272,000

3 200,000

4 278,000 (projected)

It is worth noting that in June 2014, 288,000 net new nonfarm jobs were created; the fifth

consecutive monthly gain above 200,000 jobs and the best sustained job activity since 1999.xv

2. In mid-October, the number of nonfarm jobs in America reached 116 million, surpassing the

previous record in 2008. For the first time, in early 2014 and five years into the economic

recovery, the private sector added enough jobs to replace the 8.3 million jobs lost during the

recession.xvi Although this news is encouraging, the rate of recovery was slow compared to prior

recessions. As an example, the number of monthly job gains in excess of 300,000 occurred

during 40% and 25% of the months following the recessions in the mid-70’s and early-80’s,

respectively, far less than the monthly numbers we experienced in 2013 and 2014.xvii

3. The unemployment rate in November 2014 was 5.8%, down from 6.7% at the close of 2013 and

10.0% at the trough of the recession in October 2009.xviii

4. The length of the average American work week has not recovered as well as the number of jobs.

However, improvement was noted in the second half of 2014, and the average work week was

approaching the length it had established before the economy began to dive (May 2008).xix

All in all, the news on the job front is encouraging and when combined with business investment is a

signal that the corporate world is optimistic about the next 12-18 months. Further affirmation is in the

fourth quarter when the National Federation of Small Business (NFIB) Optimism Index rose to the

highest level since 2007.xx

E. Fiscal and Monetary Policy

As mentioned earlier, the year began on the heels of President Obama signing a bi-partisan two year

budget in December 2013. This put to rest fears of an unintended negative fiscal policy impact of a

second Federal government shutdown.

The focus in 2014 was on changes implemented by the Fed in its Monetary Policy. In June 2013, the Fed

announced that it would begin tapering its monetary asset purchasing program later in the year or in

2014, contingent upon continued favorable economic conditions. The program reached its peak in

2013, when the Fed was purchasing $85 billion in financial assets per month. True to its guidance, the

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dollar amount of assets purchased in early 2014 diminished to about $10 billion per month and

following the October 2014 Fed Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed announced the program had

reached a successful conclusion. Four trillion in monetary assets had been purchased by the Fed during

the three sets of Quantitative Easing, which began in 2008.xxi

At the June 2013 Fed Open Market Committee meeting, then Chairperson Ben Bernanke also

announced that if inflation stayed below 2% and unemployment dropped below 6.5%, the Fed would be

inclined to begin increasing its Federal Funds rate. The stock market reacted unfavorably to the

guidance from the Fed and dropped 4% in three days. At the March 2014 Open Market Committee,

current Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would discontinue using the

unemployment rate as a metric to guide future adjustments to the Fed Funds rate, but instead a

collection of forward measuring economic statistics, including, but not limited to unemployment

measures.xxii The unemployment rate near the end of the year was 5.8% and as of the writing of this

paper, the Fed has yet to suggest it was about to increase its Fed Funds rate.

F. Housing: Existing Sales (units)

The weakest segment of the economy as we left 2013 was housing: existing and new construction. The

bleaker than normal winter weather combined with tight inventory kept consumers home. After an

encouraging spell of broad-based recovery in the first three quarters of 2013, existing home sales in the

first quarter of 2014 were 7% below 2013.xxiii The poor performance in March marked seven out of eight

consecutive months where year to year monthly sales comparisons were negative. Existing housing

inventory continued to be tight in the beginning of 2014, dropping to 5.2 months’ supply, compared to

eight to nine months at the depth of the recession and six months that is considered to be balanced.xxiv

The sales trend improved in April as the weather broke and inventory levels grew (5.6 months’ supply in

May). However, existing sales through May were still 7% below 2013, and many economists were

suggesting that housing’s inability to gain momentum after a cold and snowy winter had become a

source of concern.xxv Fortunately, most of these concerns were quelled as the June and July housing

numbers began to come in. Existing sales rose for the fourth consecutive month in July, reaching a ten

month high. September sales were the strongest of the year and October sales marked the first month

of the year when the sales level exceeded the same month in 2013.xxvi Lawrence Yun, National

Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist attributes the improved performance in the second half

of the year to improving mortgage rates compared to mid-2013, modestly improving inventory levels,

stabilizing price growth and improved employment.xxvii

In spite of the stronger late summer and autumn activity, unit sales for the year will not reach the level

achieved in 2013. Year to date sales through the third quarter were 4.8% below 2013. Preliminary unit

sales numbers for November are soft compared to 2013. NAR projects 2014 unit sales to reach

approximately 4.9 million, down by 4% from 5.1 million in 2013.xxviii

G. Housing: Existing Sales (value)

National existing housing values continued to improve in 2014, although not at the same pace as 2013.

The CoreLogic National House Price Index in April was 10.5% above its April 2013 level, making it the 14th

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consecutive month of double digit year over year price gains.xxix April 2014 appears to be the tipping

point, chronologically. The June Price Index was 7.5% above the June 2013 index and was the smallest

gain since October, 2012 and one-third less than the peak gain of 12% in February 2014. It dropped to

6.5% in July and 5.5% in October.xxx However, a reduction in the rate of appreciation is not all bad. It

played a role in encouraging buyers back into the market in mid-2014. Additionally, October marked the

32nd consecutive month of year over year price appreciation.xxxi

H. Housing: New Construction

The single family new home market continues to improve, but at a slow rate. Similar to other segments

in the economy, the home builders were hampered by tepid consumer confidence and poor weather in

the first quarter. However, they were also challenged throughout the year by a reduced supply of

qualified labor and a shortage of buildable lots. The former caused by the competitive forces of an

improved job market. The latter caused by extremely tight credit standards for subdivision development

loans.xxxii

After three dismal months in the first quarter, new home sales rose in April.xxxiii The pace continued in

May, when sales were 18.6% above May, 2013 and year-to-date sales were 2.1% above 2013.xxxiv The

run continued through the summer. August sales rose by 20% and year to date sales through the third

quarter were 2.4% above 2013 (keeping in mind that existing home sales were unable to match 2013

monthly totals until the end of the year).xxxv

In spite of improving new home market conditions, the level of production is still weak. Single family

new home starts in 2014 will be only at half the level experienced in 2000-2003, before the housing

boom took off. NAR argues that this level is only half what is needed to keep residential supply and

demand in balance.xxxvi

I. Housing: Credit Performance

There is good news to report regarding the quality of our country’s mortgage loan portfolios.

As the result of increased consumer saving, larger down payments, debt pay downs, low interest

rates and rising income, the average household net worth in 2014 was at an all-time high and

debt levels continue to drop to record lows.xxxvii

CoreLogic reported in April that only 12.7% of all residential properties with a mortgage were in

a negative equity position, compared to 20.2% in April 2013.xxxviii

Short term mortgage delinquencies (i.e. home equity loans) were at a 40-year low in June 2014

and new foreclosure rates declined to a pre-recession level.xxxix

Mortgage delinquencies (90 plus days past due and properties in foreclosure) dropped to 5.4%

in early 2014, versus 9.7% at the peak of the recession in 2009.xl

Distressed sales in July fell to 9.0% of all sales, marking the first single digit measure since

October 2008 and the high level of 33% in 2009.xli

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J. Housing: Demographics

There continues to be two demographic patterns that work against the strength of the housing market:

Household formation rates and Homeownership rates.

Household formation. During the recession, the practice of traditionally independent households

combining during periods of sustained unemployment became more prolific. In the past, the most

common form of multi-generational household was when aging parents moved in with their “children”

when they were no longer able to live independently. During the recession this continued, but due to

unemployment, we saw more sibling families moving in with other sibling families, families moving back

in with their parents, and adult children not moving out of their parents’ home after high school or

college. In 2014, 18% of Americans lived in multi-generational homes. Of those who are 25-34 years

old, 20% are unemployed living with their parents and 12% are employed living with their parents.xlii

Homeownership rate. Some argue that homeownership may no longer be the “American Dream.” The

homeownership rate in 2014 was 65%, down from a record high of 69.4% in 2004. The number of

homeowner households has declined by 1.0 million since 2010. Causes cited include higher credit

standards, not as many low down payment loan programs, fear of negative equity and lack of

geographic flexibility.xliii

K. Projections

When we left 2013, the economy was riding on good momentum but had the potential to be hindered

by Federal budget issues that could not be reconciled by Congress and the President. As the year closed,

a two year budget was approved and signed into law by Obama. However, many economic indicators

took a turn for the worse as the early months of the year unfolded. Weather was often the headline

story on the nightly news, high inventories at the close of 2013 were quietly reduced and our net

exports began to decline. As spring arrived, almost all segments of the economy rebounded, except for

housing. Weather improved, consumers returned to their normal shopping patterns, inventory levels

plateaued, production resumed at normal levels and job creation steadily improved.

The only true dark spot on the economic canvas as the year progressed was housing. Existing housing

lurked in the weeds, in spite of strong employment news. Inventory was tight, not compelling buyers to

take action. New construction was not able to build enough product to fill the void. Existing sales

activity in the first three quarters of the year was below levels seen in 2013. But the trends changed in

the last quarter when monthly sales levels finally surpassed those experienced in 2013. Momentum is

strong as we leave the year. SentriLock, LLC, a leading provider of lockbox products for the Realtor

community confirms this optimism. It reports that showing activity in October was 16% above October

2013. Research from NAR indicates there is a meaningful correlation between showing activity and unit

sales performance three months forward.xliv

Here is a brief synopsis of 2015 projections from Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors.xlv

1. Consumer demand, consumer confidence and strong employment trends should cause GDP to

grow by 2.7% in 2015.xlvi

2. Job growth will continue at a pace of 210,000 jobs per month.

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3. The near term outlook for housing is good. Improving income and job conditions will increase

the rate of household formations. Existing home sales finished the year strong, at the highest

pace since September 2013. Existing home sales should grow by 8% in 2015.

4. The Federal Reserve will raise its Federal Funds rate in 2015 and 30-year fixed mortgage rates

will grow into the upper 4% range.

II. Tippecanoe County Residential Real Estate Market

A. Introductory Comments

It seems the further we move from the economic recession and deeper we experience recovery, the

more we find our local real estate patterns parallel the national economy. For many years, I preached

that our diverse employment base insulated us from the ups and downs of the national economy. I

think I had good reason to make those statements, but when the national real estate market began to

suffer in 2007, Greater Lafayette was more exposed to the risks that haunted the national residential

market than most of us expected.

Specifically, we were exposed to the loose national mortgage underwriting environment when the

economy grew between 2003 and 2007. Our experience may have been subtle and loans may have not

been “authored” by the banks with bricks and mortar in Greater Lafayette, but our local real estate

consumers found ways, through national marketing and internet lending, to take advantage of the

loosely underwritten loans, characterized by the recession. As a result, our local real estate market

suffered in ways most of us did not expect.

Likewise, as the national economy rebounded from the recession, the local residential market moved in

lock step. Single family unit sales in Tippecanoe County rose by 17% in 2012 and 13% in 2013 (compared

to 9% at a national level for 2012 and 2013). We had a sense of optimism as we left 2013 and prepared

for another year of growth in 2014. However, just as we discovered at the national level, the first

quarter of 2014 in Greater Lafayette’s residential business was not what we expected, and the balance

of the year was not what we wanted. Let’s discuss this in more detail.

B. Sales Activity: Single Family Homes and Condos

We ended 2013 with plenty of snow on the ground and colder than normal winter temperatures. Little

did we know that the harsh 2013 holiday weather was a precursor for what the next 60 days would be

like. Ten inches of snow fell in Tippecanoe County on the Sunday after the New Year’s holiday (just as

we were gearing up to return to our normal work habits). This, in and of itself, would not have been

horrific had we not already had five to ten inches of snow on the ground from earlier snow storms. The

heavy snow fall was compounded by cold temperatures and strong winds. The State Police and local

officials called a “snow emergency” for three business days in early January, closing all non-critical

government operations, schools and most business. Although we did not have snow of this magnitude

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again in 2014, we continued to have two to four inches of snow every few days through the end of

February and colder than normal temperatures.

The end result was business slowed down in Tippecanoe County in January and February 2014. Stores

and restaurants were noticeably more quiet, auto sales declined and people did not come out in large

numbers to look at houses. After a 13% increase in existing home sales during the fourth quarter of

2013, unit sales dropped by 21% in the first quarter of 2014, compared to the first quarter of 2013.

Similar to the national story, existing home sales did not rebound in the spring as quickly as we had

expected. Unit sales in the second quarter were still below 2013 (-6%). On a positive note, momentum

changed in the third quarter, two months ahead of the national trend. Local unit sales in the third

quarter were 5% above 2013. The fourth quarter leveled off with sales matching the fourth quarter of

2013 (keeping in mind, the fourth quarter of 2013 was very strong). However, the third and fourth

quarters were not strong enough to overcome the first two quarters. We ended the year with unit sales

4% behind 2013 (see Exhibit II).

Clearly the harsh winter caused us to get off to a very slow start. However, as the year progressed, it

became clear that the issues were deeper than just weather. Most of us believed that the release of

pent up winter demand would allow us to catch up with or surpass the 2013 patterns by early summer.

Such was not the case.

Two issues beyond weather come to mind. The first, and from my perspective, the least significant, was

the cumulative effect of an increasing interest rate environment that began in 2013. In the

conversations that came across my desk, interest rates did not surface as a significant stumbling block.

However, anytime the price of a good or service goes up, without a change in other factors, the demand

will go down. From a pure theoretical point of view, this happened with residential real estate:

mortgage interest rates increased during the 18 months that ended December 31, 2014 and, to one

degree or another, that muffled demand.

The second cause was a decrease in the supply of single family homes available to purchase. As the year

progressed the tightness of our supply became increasingly more acute. We began the year with the

number of single family units on the market equaling the supply in January 2013. The same was

essentially the case at the end of the first quarter, but by mid-summer, the number of units was 9%-12%

below the same period of time in 2013. On September 30, 2014, and at year end, the number of units

were 20% below the same dates in 2013. The shortage of supply was driven by 1) a decrease in REO

property coming on the market and 2) a shortage of buildable lots (to be discussed later in the report).

C. Existing Home Sales Activity: Price Range

As has been discussed in earlier years, not all segments of the market are effected equally by the same

set of economic conditions. As an example, when we review unit sales by price ranges in 2014, there

were significant differences in each category (see Exhibit III).

The overall improvement in the credit quality of our mortgage portfolios led to a decrease in foreclosure

and pre-foreclosure properties listed for sale in 2014. As a result, there was an 8% decrease in unit sales

less than $100,000 in 2014 and a 7% decrease in unit sales between $100,000 and $200,000. At the risk

of generalizing, the vast majority of foreclosures were homes valued less than $200,000.

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The shortage of buildable lots in 2014 also created unsatisfied demand. New construction happens at all

price points, but largest concentration is in the $100,000 to $200,000 price range. This was the second

contributor to a decline in unit sales price between $100,000 and $200,000.

For the fourth straight year, the number of units that sold in the $200,000-$300,000, the $300,000-

$400,000, the $400,000-$500,000 and the $500,000 plus price ranges increased. The growth in the

$400,000-$500,000 price range was significant at 13% and unit sales above $500,000 grew substantially

from 15 to 47 units, or 47%.

In spite of the sluggishness of the local and national residential markets, the breadth of price ranges that

experienced growth in unit sales and the number of consecutive years we have seen growth is

testimony to the overall durability of the real estate recovery.

D. Existing Home Sales Activity: Location

Unlike the analysis of units sales by price range, where some price points saw unit growth and others

declined, all geographic areas in Tippecanoe County experienced a decrease in unit sales of existing

single family homes. The decrease in the West Lafayette school system was the greatest at 12% and was

driven by a larger gap in supply relative to demand than other areas.

There are virtually no buildable residential lots in the West Lafayette school district. As a result, we will

continue to see more situations where homes that are functionally obsolete, and priced accordingly, in

strong West Lafayette neighborhoods become candidates to be torn down to make way for a newly

constructed home. Admittedly, the purchase of the obsolete home becomes an expensive buildable lot,

but in some instances, the economics support the proposition.

Here is a recent example. A 1,400 square foot one story home with a basement near the West Lafayette

High School was purchased by a builder at the end of 2013. The improvements were demolished and a

3,200 square foot two story spec home was built in 2014 on a full finished basement. The home sold

during construction for a price greater than $500,000 and the new owner was moved in before school

started. With the tightness of supply in West Lafayette, we will see more of this in 2015.

The largest drop in unit sales was in the northwest portion of Tippecanoe County that attends Benton

County schools. Residential sales dropped from 24 to 17. However, 17 units is more indicative of the

typical volume level experienced since 2009.

E. Existing Home Sales Activity: Home Value

The Tippecanoe County existing home market experienced its fourth consecutive year of an improved

average sale price in 2014. Of the 2,078 existing single family homes that changed hands in 2014, the

average sale price rose from $150,000 in 2013 to $156,700, or a $4% increase.

Geographically, the greatest appreciation took place in the West Lafayette school district, where the

average sale price went up by 7.4%. Due to tight supply and healthy demand, homes in the West

Lafayette schools that were in good condition experienced short market times and above average

appreciation. Lower valued homes did not see the same type of appreciation. As an example, homes in

the Lafayette school district saw the average sale price rise by 3.6% from $95,200 to $98,600. The

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absence of strong investor demand and fewer first time home buyer incentive financing programs

reduced demand in the price category. However, there is nothing unhealthy about 3.6% appreciation.

F. New Construction

Demand for new construction continued to be strong in 2014, even though the numbers do not bear

this out. There were 458 single family building permits issued in the County, West Lafayette and

Lafayette in 2014, compared to 457 permits in 2013, 496 permits in 2012 and 1,219 permits at the peak

of the boom in 2004 (See Exhibit VI). Consumer demand for new construction is strong enough to

support additional growth, if there were more buildable lots available.

Exhibit VII lists residential developments where five or more new homes were started in 2014. Virtually

all of the developments are continuations of established developments (i.e. Lindberg Village, Windy

Creek, Cobblestone, Raineybrook, Stone Bridge, Lauren Lakes, Villas at Cascada, Stonehenge, Harrison

Highlands). There have not been any new developments platted and “put in the ground” since the

recession. The one exception I note is the successful Roberts Ridge, in the southern part of the county.

A second indication of an insufficient number of buildable lots to satisfy demand is the number of lots

that were sold in some of our more mature and successful subdivisions. In many instances, these were

lots that were perceived as being difficult to build on and were passed up as new development came on

the market. With the current scarceness of available lots, these more difficult lots to build on became

more practical. Examples occurred in Fawn Ridge, Hadley Moors, Heron Bay, Jesco Hills, Scharerdon

Woods, Valley Forge, Highland Park and Blackbird Farms.

The primary cause for a shortage of buildable lots is the difficulty developers have obtaining

development loans from banks. The end result is residential land development is left for only those

enterprises with a stockpile of cash.

G. Observations and 2015 Outlook

1. Observations

a) The national and local residential real estate markets suffered a bit of an economic

hangover from the recovery experience in 2012 and 2013. Although the 2014

results were acceptable, they were not as bright as other aspects of the economy

(jobs, as an example).

b) The local economic picture is bright and poised for continued growth. The GE

Aviation announcement in early 2014 was a feather in the cap of our local economic

development engine and is a testimony to the favorable business climate in our

state. Success in economic development tends to breed further success.

c) Purdue continues to be the mainstay in our employment and local GDP tool kit. It

provides employment for our local citizenry at all educational levels and brings

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some of the world’s brightest young people into our community for 4-8 years.

When everything is working at its best, we learn from them and they learn from us.

d) The Quality of Life initiative in our community has become respected by both town

and gown leaders. The fruits of the labor are beginning to pay dividends. The

leadership at GE Aviation noted that one of the qualities that endeared Greater

Lafayette to them was the fact that we have taken deliberate and sustained actions

to improve our community’s quality of life.

e) Virtually everybody is hoping the winter of 2015 will be milder than what we

experience last year.

2. Projections

a) Existing single family home sales will continue the positive trend that began in the

third quarter of 2014. Unit sales will grow by 2-3% in 2015.

b) The stronger segments of the market will be in the price categories above $200,000.

c) Residential new construction will remain flat until new developments are brought to

the market.

d) As the Baby Boomers continue to age, demand for low maintenance, smaller sized

home will continue to grow. A handful of successful product offerings are at Stone

Bridge, the Village at Arbor Chase, Westport, the Villas at Cascada and the patio

homes at Winding Creek.

III. Tippecanoe County Commercial Real Estate Market

A. Introduction

The health of the commercial and industrial real estate markets continued to improve in 2014. Limited

new supply and strengthening of tenancies made for lower vacancies and contributed to better overall

property fundamentals. Values strengthened with further compression of capitalization rates and

investors sought more and more property in all asset classes.

Debt funding continued to move away from government sources as commercial sources provided more

liquidity. REIT returns outpaced other equity indices on a five year horizon after a more uncertain

interest rate environment in 2013. Banks gained more investment share than CMBS issuances during the

first three quarters of 2014.

Multi-family property continues to lead all sectors in investment as the recovery-expansion cycle

continues and more money flows into the commercial space with industrial, retail and office product

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following multi-family in that order. Where the multi-family sector has been in expansion mode for

several years, certain industrial markets are expanding again with still low vacancies and steady

transaction volume. CBD office construction is also on the rise as younger workers enter the workforce

desiring more urban live-work environments. In some cases, this downtown phenomenon comes at the

expense of suburban office markets whose inventories are balancing but at a slower pace than their

urban counterparts.

B. Inventories

Here is a snapshot of Lafayette / West Lafayette inventories in light of other US markets:

Vacancy— National Snapshot

Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate

Vacancy—Lafayette—West Lafayette

Property Classification Size Total Bldg SF Vacancy (%)

2014 2013 2012

Industrial 4,808,946 2.37 5.57 7.23

Office 3,364,331 8.89 10.45 13.81

Retail 4,545,825 13.26 13.05 15.22

Manufacturing 14,000,000

Hospitals 900,000

Purdue 12,000,000 Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM, Purdue.edu

Vacancy %

Industrial Office Retail

2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013

Austin, TX 11.32 11.55 8.98 10.45 6.50 5.00

Boston, MA 11.64 18.46 9.80 12.96 8.05 8.93

Charlotte, NC 9.58 13.43 12.25 11.28 9.02 8.50

Chicago, IL 11.60 9.01 15.29 14.35 11.45 8.70

Columbus, OH 12.00 10.12 9.34 9.62 8.30 7.30

Dayton, OH 8.87 10.98 31.97 27.60 8.66 14.60

Indianapolis, IN 6.23 7.70 18.21 18.11 9.83 7.00

Lafayette-West Lafayette

2.37 5.57 8.89 10.45 13.26 13.05

Los Angeles, CA 4.11 4.50 14.09 14.49 5.08 5.25

Nashville, TN 8.34 9.10 9.58 17.00 6.70 6.59

Phoenix AZ 19.81 12.10 13.74 20.98 12.91 8.09

Raleigh, NC 11.08 15.43 6.86 7.67 8.01 10.60

Washington, DC

12.15 10.84 11.45 11.36 4.70 4.81

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Vacancy—By Sector

Property Classification Size Total Bldg SF/ Sample Size (# of Bldgs)

Vacancy (%)

2014 2013 2012

Industrial

Warehouse-Distribution

3,168,294/ 31 2.64 6.05 7.05

Industrial/ Flex Service 1,656,052/ 114 1.85 4.46 7.58

Office

Downtown 699,887/ 36 7.05 9.58 13.23

Lafayette North, East/ Medical, South, West

(non- PurResPark)

1,191,576/ 90 10.57 14.45 19.92

Purdue Research Park 1,607,464/ 18 8.45 8.37 8.52

Retail

Shopping Center 3,203,462/ 15 11.95 14.97 15.48

Neighborhood Center 1,568,534/72 15.93 11.87 14.60 Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM

Neighborhood center vacancy jumped to over 15% with additional availability reported at Eastway Plaza

and with the former Good Will space in West Lafayette. These are well located and highly functional

spaces which are not likely to stay on the market long.

Purdue Research Park vacancy only rose due to the removal from inventory two soon to be demolished

buildings owned by the Purdue Research Foundation at the southeast corner of Cumberland Avenue and

Kent Avenue. The park has limited available spaces to offer users of any size.

C. Lafayette / West Lafayette Lease Rate Values

Lease Rates – Overall

Property Classification

Lease Rate Range: Est. $ Per Sq Ft/ YR/ NNN (Net of common area maintenance expenses, tenant HVAC and tenant electric)

2014 2013 2012

Industrial $2.50-7.50 $2.00-7.50

Office $6.50-18.00 $6.00-18.00 $6.00-18.00

Retail $6.50-26.00 $6.00-22.00 $6.00-18.00 Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM

Note: Prior to 2013, Industrial lease rates were reported here on a “modified-industrial gross” basis which includes real estate taxes

and insurance. For 2013, 2014 and going forward, industrial rates are reported here on a NNN basis for consistency in comparing all

classes. NNN rent structure includes the base rent component seen here, a common area maintenance (“CAM”) expense component in

which tenants participate on a pro rata share basis and which is not seen here, and tenant heat, air-conditioning (HVAC) and tenant

electric which are paid by tenants either directly or by reimbursement and which are also not seen here.

As tenants compare the total of these three components when selecting buildings/locations, and as the CAM, HVAC and tenant electric

components are for the most part non-negotiable; the base rent component seen here becomes the negotiated and comparable

component.

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Lease Rates - By Sector

Property Classification

Lease Rate Range Est. $ Per Sq Ft/ YR/ NNN (net of common area maintenance expenses, Tenant HVAC

and tenant electric)

2014 2013 2012 Notes

Industrial

Warehouse- Distribution

3.50-6.00 3.00-5.00 Warehouse of Lafayette on Moreland Drive to the lower,

Warehouse of Lafayette at Park 350 at higher end.

Industrial Flex/ Service

2.50-7.50 2.00-6.00 Wilson Avenue brick/ vintage warehouse on the lower, Kepner Drive, Haggerty Pointe, Brother

Drive at higher end.

Office

Downtown 10.00-17.00 10.00-17.00 10.00-16.00 Renaissance, Chase, Columbia on higher end. Street level suites and non-window offices on lower end.

Lafayette North, East/

Medical, South

6.50-18.00 6.00-18.00 5.00-18.00 Clinic rates at top end. Other medical corridor rates for first and second generation spaces $12.25-

$16.50

Purdue Research Park

12.00-18.00 12.00-18.00 12.00-18.00 Smaller lab spaces at top end.

Retail

Shopping Center

10.50-$17.50 10.00-17.00 8.00-16.50 Lift in lower end rates as recession era vacancies absorb. Pavilions

smaller frontage spaces at high end.

Retail $6.50-$26.00 6.00-16.00 6.00-13.00 Highest rates for newer high traffic/ visibility locations. High end is new

campus retail / The Fuse

Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM

Even with further tightening of vacancy in nearly all sectors in 2014, local lease rates remained stable for

the most part and growing in certain industrial and office instances. Exceptions to this (that were not

already scheduled within lease agreements) would have been cost of living adjustments in the 2% range.

D. Property Values

1. Income Property- Cap Rates

A common measure of property value for single and multi-tenant income producing real estate, the

“cap rate” is a relationship between property value and its Net Operating Income. For example, a

property with $100,000 of Net Operating Income and a sale price of $1,000,000 is said to be valued a

15

10% cap rate. The cap rate is driven by several factors including property location, creditworthiness of

tenants, length of leases, history of needed leasing time and deferred maintenance. So, poor tenants

and lots of anticipated roof, exterior and parking repairs drive the cap rate higher and property value

down. New buildings with credit tenants are perceived to be of less risk and sell at lower cap rates.

For buyers and sellers, often the biggest challenge is agreeing on real Net Operating Income, the current

annual gross rent Revenue minus routine, non-capital operating expenses. Often for instance, current

vacancy may be assigned a rent value in a seller’s estimate of gross revenue when the buyer would

consider the vacancy space value as being $0.00. The real value of the vacancy may be somewhere in

between.

Here is a “Going In” Cap Rate Review comprised of 66 US markets viewed from the front end of an

investment:

2014 2013 2012

Class A Property (%) (%) (%)

CBD Office 7.05 7.37 7.65

Suburban Office 7.43 7.68 7.91

Industrial 7.11 7.50 7.75

Flex Office 8.00 8.01 8.30

Urban Multi Family 5.52 5.76 5.91

Suburban Multi Family 5.67 5.87 6.08

Regional Mall 6.83 7.01 7.28

Community Retail 7.17 7.26 7.60

Neighborhood Retail 7.33 7.41 7.66

Class B Property (%)

CBD Office 7.84

Suburban Office 8.06

Urban Multi Family 6.38

Suburban Multifamily 6.50

Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM

With the exception of leased University property, newer student housing projects on campus and

corporately backed single user net leased properties ( example: CVS, Walgreens, AutoZone, Applebee’s)

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these cap-rates would otherwise be 1 to 3 points higher in Tippecanoe County due to its tertiary market

status.

2. Non- Income Property Valuations

For commercial property that is non-income producing, the units of measure for value are typically by

the acre for unimproved land and by the building square foot for building improved property.

Property Value Range Estimates – Non Income Producing Property

Property Classification Condition Unit of Measure

10 acres or less Over 10 acres

Industrial Land Shovel Ready $50k-$93k/ac $45k-$65k/ac

Office Land Shovel Ready $130k-$195/ac $95k-$125k/ac

Retail Land Shovel Ready $130k-$250/ac $140k-$195

Retail Out Lots Shovel Ready $350k-$550/ac

Building Sq Ft

Industrial Bldg Shell Condition $30-$40/sf

Office Bldg Shell Condition $30-$50/sf

Retail Bldg Shell Condition $30-$50/sf

Industrial Bldg Move In Ready $50-$60/sf

Office Bldg Move In Ready $60-$80/sf

Retail Bldg Move In Ready $60-$80/sf Notes: Per acre land value range estimates do not include cost recovery fees. Retail out lots are 1 to 3 acres.

Shell condition includes base building infrastructure stubbed to building/space including water, sanitary and electric/gas/phone/cable.

HVAC unit in place and adaptable for reconfigured spaces. Move in read conditions assumes building/spaces in functional condition

with minimal revision.

E. Market Segment Activity

As always, Lafayette-West Lafayette’s multi-family, industrial, office and retail markets exist in great part

because of Purdue University and the manufacturing, medical and high tech employer’s in Tippecanoe

County.

1. Multi-Family

Student Housing

Multifamily housing near Purdue University has historically been a very stable. Over the past few years there has been a massive push by local and national investors into the student housing market. This infusion of new, high-end apartments has created a shift in the housing market. As you can see in the chart below, the pricing on unit type is adjusting both up and down depending on the market conditions and is predicted to continue fluctuate with the continued growth of new housing investments in the West Lafayette campus market.

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Pricing by Building/ Unit Type

Building Unit Type 2013-2014 Rents Per

Person

2013-2014 Occupancy

Suggested 2015-2016 Rents Per

Person

State Street Towers

2 Bedroom/ 2 Bathroom $575-$705

95-100

$550-$705

3 Bedroom/ 3 bathroom $530-$640 $530-599

$20-$24 SF/YR $20-$24

SF/YR

Commercial NNN NNN

The Varsity Apt Building

Studio $540-$895

95-100

$575-$795

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $725-$1050 $650-$985

2 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $600 $490-$620

University Terrace

Studio $835

100

$835

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $1,050 $1,050

2 Bedroom/ 2 Bathroom $645-700 $670

3 Bedroom/ 3 Bathroom $625 $635

Chauncey Square BLDG A

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $1,089-$1,179

90-95

$1,169-$1,219

2 Bedroom/ 2 Bathroom $859-874 $899-$919



Chauncey Square BLDG B

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $1,239-$1,339

90-95

$1,279-$1,399






Grant Street Station

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $1,350

Not Available

$1,395





215 Fowler 4 Bedroom/ 2 Bath $455

100 $455

4 Bedroom/ 3 Bath $485 $475

20 Littleton Street 3 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $480

100 $480


140 South Salisbury 1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $865 100 $865

220 South Salisbury 4 Bedroom 2.5 Bathroom $605-$625 95-100 $615-$635

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402 Northwestern

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $760

100

$760


3 Bedroom/ 1.5 Bathroom $510 $510


225 Northwestern

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom New

Construction

$1,250-$1,400



46 N. Salisbury

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom New

Construction

$1,300-$1,400



Fuse

Studio/ 1 Bathroom

Management Change

Not Available

$1,149

1 Bedroom/ 1 Bathroom $1,379




4 Bedroom/ 4 Bathroom $769 Source: IRR Viewpoint 2015, Shook Commercial Database, LoopNet, STS, Commercial Investment Real Estate CCIM

2. Industrial

Without question, the leading industrial news in 2014 was that of GE Aviation’s selection of Lafayette for

the assembly of one of its LEAP engines. The company purchased 53 acres through a developer at Park

350 immediately south of Nanshan and optioned an equal amount of land for expansion. The engines

assembled at the Lafayette plant will serve the Boeing 737 and AirBus 320 jetliners. Production is

scheduled for 2016.

Warehouse of Lafayette reports 2% vacancy in its nearly 1 million square feet of warehouse and

distribution properties attributing this chiefly to full occupancy at its Park 350 and Brady Lane

properties. Spaces vacated by Carlex and Indiana Packers were back filled. Other spaces vacated by its

own logistics operations on Brady Lane were then leased by Tate + Lyle. Warehouse of Lafayette lease

rates were up 4% to 8% after being flat for four years.

Wabash National Corporation leased 100,000 square feet of industrial space for its Duraplate production

in an effort to free up plant space.

Toyota-Tsusho renewed its 275,000 square foot lease on Kepner Avenue for a multi-year period. The

company provides logistics services in Lafayette.

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At the front door of Toyota-Tsusho on McCarty Lane, approximately 3.50 acres were sold to Lafayette

Warehouse, Inc for the development of a new distribution facility. The company handles genuine factory

replacement parts for auto, lawn & garden and other industrial and commercial sectors.

Vectren purchased a 26,000 square foot facility on Rascal Drive on nearly 8 acres and will move from its

long time leased location at 1251 South Creasy Lane across from Unity Healthcare.

The new 40,000 square foot industrial facility built by Bill Schurmann in 2014 at Park 52 is fully leased.

There is room to double the size of the building and enough extra land to build up to 120,000 square feet

more in another building.

Industrial 3 zoned land values for developed lots less than 10 acres are now commonly above $50,000

per acre and now up to $93,000 per acre not including cost recovery fees. Prices vary depending on

location/visibility, shape of lot and encumbrances. “Developed lots” have city street access as well as

ready water, sanitary sewer and drainage services and provide buyers/developers the quickest path to

entitlement and building permits. Industrial 3 zoning is Tippecanoe County’s heaviest industrial zoning

classification and allows for manufacturing and outdoor storage.

3. Retail

Local shopping centers shored up vacancy to below 12% including the Tippecanoe Mall with Market

Square and the Pay Less Center at the Mall reducing their vacancies by half to 48,000 square feet and

35,000 square feet respectively. The Kmart Center is the only retail property offering functional large

blocks of space with 71,000 square feet available and leasing interest from several prospects at year end

2014.

Three new groceries opened in 2014, Fresh Thyme Market at the Pavilions in Lafayette, a newer shopping

center which remains nearly fully leased; Fresh City Market located at The Fuse across from Mackey Area;

and, Meijer in West Lafayette next to Menards. All three stores are community centric and as specialty

stores, Fresh Thyme and Fresh City are able to operate with smaller floor plates between approximately

20,000 and 30,000 square feet.

The former John Deere and United Rentals property at the northeast corner of State Road 26 and North

36th Street next to the post office and across 26 from Caterpillar sold at year end for the development of

a Cheddars Cheddar’s Casual Café. It is estimated the 3.40 acre site sold in the $230,000 per acre range.

Across SR 26 and just west, the building improvements at the southeast corner of 26 and South Farabee

Drive have been razed, and the highly visible site of 1.7 acres is ready for redevelopment.

Rohrman Auto Group purchased approximately 5.25 acres of General Business Zoned land on Creasy Lane

to expand its Subaru dealership. The sale value was approximately $130,000 per acre which reflects the

power transmission easement occupying roughly one-third of the site.

20

First Federal Savings Bank of Logansport constructed a bank branch on McCarty Lane in Cascada Business

Park including additional third party space for lease. Approximate sale value of the 1.60 acre General

Business zoned site is just over $240,000 per acre.

Hunter’s Moon Harley Davidson purchased 5 acres immediately south of Best Western on I-65 and State

Road 26 for a new dealership and service center. The site was delivered with business zoning and

municipal services at its perimeter, but its physical condition was not “fully developed,” ready for building

in terms of other needed infrastructure. So, the $100,000 per acre value was paid with buyer knowing it

faced more site development costs before going vertical.

Central Indiana Ricker’s Oil is making inroads to Lafayette for the development of convenience stores with

gas. Ricker’s purchased the hard corner at the “Biltz Site” on the northwest quadrant of SR 25 and

Sagamore Parkway next to Petsburg. Ricker’s is also under contract to purchase 2.5 to 3 acres on near

Park 350 in front of Nanshan at the southwest corner of US 52 and Veterans Memorial Highway.

Family Express moves forward with its plans for redevelopment of the Smitty’s site in West Lafayette to

develop a convenience store with gas on the two acre site. The sale has not consummated but value will

be somewhat over $500,000 per acre.

Nearby in West Lafayette, Culvers is under contract for 1.20 acres next to Applebee’s in a new subdivision

that will include several more out lots along Sagamore Parkway across from PEFCU. Property values for

these out lots will be in the same $500,000 per acre range or higher with the sites being delivered in

development condition upon closing with municipal water, sanitary and storm services stubbed to the

parcels. Access will be initially from Cumberland Avenue north along the Applebee’s property with a full

entrance on Sagamore Parkway West to follow. There are also 18-20 acres available in the heart of this

site between The Cook Med-Institute and the Four Star Hilton Hotel.

Goodwill in West Lafayette built a new store in West Lafayette, leaving its long time home between Navajo

Drive and Sagamore Parkway. The 1.96 acre property which served as an auto dealership before its recent

use as an overhead door company property sold in the $430,000 per acre range.

4. Office/Medical

Franciscan St Elizabeth Health purchased 28 acres at the northeast corner of new US 231 and Cumberland

Avenue in West Lafayette for the development of medical facilities to serve its West Lafayette and outer

county patients.

Innovation Center sold at year end 2014 to a Bloomington, Indiana based investor. This newer 85,000

square foot high clearance office building was developed in the late 2000s by Holladay Properties in a

partnership with the Purdue Research Foundation. Originally anchored by Hewlett Packard, the property

today is fully occupied by Xerox and DowAgro.

21

Next door at International Technology Center/Parkwest Fitness, The Cook Med-Institute leased 8,000

square feet at year end 2014 expanding from its headquarters building (formerly Great Lakes Chemical).

The lease takes occupancy over 95% for the moment. Quest Engineering, a global engineering firm will

vacate its 4,000 square feet at International in late May 2015 and move to a full floor at the Chase Center

in downtown Lafayette.

Jerry Brand of INOK development built a new 13,500 square foot office property at the northeast corner

of Sagamore Parkway and Duncan Road. The single story building is already 75% leased by Bankers Life,

Bundy McNear Insurancea and Unity Seeds, all tenants that have moved from INOK’s adjacent two-story

headquarters building next door. These trailing spaces have each been backfilled with new tenancy.

The former Lafayette Life headquarters remains available. Serious consideration was made by the

Lafayette School Corporation in 2014 to purchase the property, but an agreement was not consummated

with owner Cincinnati based Western Southern Corporation.

At year-end 2014, Tippecanoe County purchased 111 North Fourth Street from Kentland State Bank for

use in accommodating various county agencies. The four story building features 6,000 square foot floor

plates above grade and a finished basement space.

IU Health is constructing parking and medical office space at its hospital campus on I-65.

Overall office vacancy dropped over 1.5 points in 2014 to 8.89% with downtown vacancy hovering just

over 7% for the 36 buildings tracked as Quest Engineering agrees to lease floor five at the Chase Center

and relocate its offices from the Purdue Research Park.

F. Tippecanoe County Observations and 2015 Outlook

1. Observations

a) Market inventories balanced in 2014.

b) New wave of multi-family development in the student housing sector here at home

follows national trend as multi-family leads all sectors in this recovery-expansion

era. A year or two will tell how new on-campus development affects overall rate and

property values for all student housing and the broader multi-family sector.

c) Industrial space inventory has reached low single digit vacancy.

d) Industrial space rates saw increases in some cases in 2014.

e) New developed lot alternatives are arriving in West Lafayette in form of the Mann

site (Culvers), Meijer out lots and with the Cumberland and Lindberg intersections

taking shape at new US 231.

22

2. Projections

a) Continued stable inventories with limited new supply coming on-line in 2015

b) Watch for more non-campus multi-family development to materialize

c) Stable to increasing lease rates in industrial, retail and office sectors

d) Market may be a year behind in its ability to deliver new building supply to the

industrial sector. Viable space alternatives are now scarce.

e) Development of new production grade facilities north of Kalberer Road in the

Purdue Research Park. Expected to be pre-leased.

f) Continued office market stabilization with more absorption and new development

activity in the medical corridor. Sale and / or lease activity involving the Lafayette

Life Building and the Loeb building.

g) Possible site acquisition and development design considerations at the following

locations:

The southeast quadrant of Concord & Veteran’s Memorial Parkway;

The four corners at Veteran’s Memorial Parkway and US 52;

Andrews site at Creasy Lane and State Road 38

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IV. Residential Exhibits

Exhibit I

Existing Home Sales: United States

(Millions) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Projected

2014

Unit Sales 6.5 5.7 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 4.9

Percent Change -8.4% -12.3% -14.0% 4.1% -7.9% -10.4% 9.3% 8.5% -3.9% Source: National Association of Realtors

Exhibit II

Existing Home Sales by Quarter (Tippecanoe County)

Unit Sales by Quarter

Year Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV Annual Total

2008 334 559 564 346 1,803

2009 263 581 527 426 1,797

2010 318 625 383 341 1,667

2011 303 501 502 334 1,640

2012 339 610 564 409 1,922

2013 418 702 591 461 2,172

2014 332 659 618 469 2,078

2013/2014 % Change

-21% -6% 5% 2% -4%

Source: Indiana Regional MLS

Exhibit III

Existing Home Sales by Price Range (Tippecanoe County)

Price Range 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Chg. from

2013

0 - $100,000 603 545 571 603 661 608 -8%

$100,00 - $200,000 893 806 760 896 1032 963 -7%

$200,000 - $300,000 220 234 216 312 354 365 3%

$300,000 - $400,000 44 57 67 81 86 93 8%

$400,000- $500,000 28 16 15 21 24 27 13%

$500,000 + 9 9 11 9 15 22 47%

Total 1,797 1,667 1,640 1,922 2,172 2,078 -4% Source: Indiana Regional MLS

24

Exhibit IV

Existing Home Sales by Location: Unit Sales (Tippecanoe County)

Geographic Region 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Chg. from

2013

Lafayette School Corp. 619 579 502 584 685 674 -2%

W. Laf. School Corp. 178 178 162 194 197 173 -12%

TSC-Harrison 512 447 522 640 709 704 -1%

TSC-McCutcheon 470 451 454 503 557 510 -8%

Tipp. County-non TSC 18 12 - 1 24 17 -29%

Total 1,797 1,667 1,640 1,922 2,172 2,078 -4%

Percent Change 0% -7% -2% 17% 13% -4% Source: Indiana Regional MLS

Exhibit V

Existing Home Sales by location: Average Price (Tippecanoe County)

Geographic Region 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Lafayette School Corp. $92,100 $93,200 $87,700 $89,900 $95,200 $98,600

W. Laf. School Corp. $188,200 $188,300 $172,100 $171,400 $168,900 $181,400

TSC-Harrison $180,100 $179,900 $178,500 $189,000 $192,600 $201,200

TSC-McCutcheon $137,100 $136,800 $141,500 $153,400 $153,200 $163,800

Total County $139,000 $138,800 $140,300 $148,200 $150,000 $156,700

Percent Change -3% 0% 1% 6% 1% 4% Source: Indiana Regional MLS

Exhibit VI

Single Family Building Permits Issued within Tippecanoe County by Municipality

Municipality 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

County 718 995 675 485 364 267 248 251 290 327 342 326

Lafayette 189 171 134 91 89 85 85 78 80 83 60 76

W. Lafayette 52 53 89 73 117 96 72 75 92 86 55 55

Total 959 1,219 898 649 570 448 405 404 462 496 457 458

*December 2013 -- November 2014

Source: Tippecanoe County Area Plan Commission

25

Exhibit VII

Single Family Building Permits Issued within Tippecanoe County by Subdivision: 2014*

(Subdivisions with five or more permits issued in 2014)*

Subdivision Municipality Permits Issued

Harrison Highlands County 33

Raineybrook County 24

Wake Robin County 24

Cobblestone Lafayette 21

Villas at Cascada Lafayette 18

Lindberg Village County 17

Winding Creek County 17

Lauren Lakes West Lafayette 16

Stonehenge County 14

Villas at Stone Bridge County 12

Roberts Ridge County 11

Butler Meadow County 11

Shepherds Point County 11

Hawthorne Lakes County 10

Prophets Ridge West Lafayette 10

Blackthorne County 10

Ravenswood County 9

Amelia Station Lafayette 9

Hunters Crest County 9

Brittany Chase Lafayette 7

Stones Crossing County 7

Hartwood Village West Lafayette 6

Avalon Bluffs County 5

*December 2013- November 2014 Source: Tippecanoe County Area Plan Commission

26

V. Residential Endnotes

i Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “2014: Private Forces Move to the Fore” Fannie

Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, January 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_011314.pdf

ii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Chilly Start to 2014” Fannie Mae: Economic

& Strategic Research, February 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


iii “United States GDP Growth Rate: 1947-2014” Trading Economics [journal on-line] available from

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

iv “Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter Estimate: Bureau of Economic Analysis, [journal on-line]

available from http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

v Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “On Track for Faster Growth” Fannie Mae:

Economic & Strategic Research, March 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


vi Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Inventory Adjustment and Weather Aside,

Growth is Still Slow” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, April 10, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from


vii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This Year”

Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, July 12, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


viii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “U.S. Growth Outlook Remains Solid but Global

Growth Slows” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, October 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available

from http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_102314.pdf

ix Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This Year”






http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm






27

x Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Housing Caught a Winter Cold and the

Economy Sneezed” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, May 12, 2014 [journal on-line] available


xi Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Moderating Growth in 2015” Fannie Mae:

Economic & Strategic Research, November 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available


xii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a Whimper” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, December 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_121814.pdf xiii Davidson, Paul “Business Investment Outlook Brightens” USA Today, April 21, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/21/business-investment-

outlook-brightening/7875061/

xiv “National Income and Product Accounts, Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2014” Bureau of

Economic Analysis, [journal on-line] available from


xv Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This Year”



xvi Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Inventory Adjustment and Weather Aside,


available from


xvii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “U.S. Growth Outlook Remains Solid but Global

Growth Slows” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, October 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available


xviii “Databases, Tables and Calculators by Subject” Bureau of Labor Statistics Data, [journal on-line]

available from http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

xix Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a

Whimper” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, December 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available





http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/21/business-investment-outlook-brightening/7875061/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/21/business-investment-outlook-brightening/7875061/





http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000


28

xx Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a

Whimper” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, December 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available


xxi Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Moderating Growth in 2015” Fannie Mae:



xxii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Inventory Adjustment and Weather Aside, Growth is Still Slow” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, April 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_042114.pdf xxiii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Rough First Quarter Reduces 2014 Growth

Expectations” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, June 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available


xxiv Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Housing Caught a Winter Cold and the



xxv Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This Year” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, July 12, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_072314.pdf xxvi DeSanctis, Adam “Existing Home Sales Rise in October, First Year Over Year Increase Since October, 2013” NAR News Release, November 20, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/11/existing-home-sales-rise-in-october-first-year-over-year-increase-since-october-2013 xxvii DeSanctis, Adam “Existing Home Sales Rise in October, First Year Over Year Increase Since October, 2013” NAR News Release, November 20, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/11/existing-home-sales-rise-in-october-first-year-over-year-increase-since-october-2013 xxviii Yun, Lawrence, ”Real Estate Trends and Outlook” Presentation at Residential Real Estate Forum,

National Association of Realtors (November 7, 2014)

xxix Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Rough First Quarter Reduces 2014 Growth









http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/11/existing-home-sales-rise-in-october-first-year-over-year-increase-since-october-2013





29

xxx Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “A Solid Second Half for the Economy” Fannie

Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, August 11, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


xxxi DeSanctis, Adam “Existing Home Sales Lose Momentum in November as Inventory Slightly Tightens”

NAR News Release, December 22, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.realtor.org/news-

releases/2014/12/existing-home-sales-lose-momentum-in-november-as-inventory-slightly-tightens

xxxii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Housing Caught a Winter Cold and the



xxxiii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Rough First Quarter Reduces 2014 Growth



xxxiv Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This

Year” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, July 12, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


xxxv Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Moderating Growth in 2015” Fannie Mae:



xxxvi Yun, Lawrence, ”Real Estate Trends and Outlook” Presentation at Residential Real Estate Forum, National Association of Realtors (November 7, 2014) xxxvii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This



xxxviii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Rough First Quarter Reduces 2014 Growth



xxxix Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “A Solid Second Half for the Economy” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, August 11, 2014 [journal on-line] available from http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Summary_081814.pdf


http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/12/existing-home-sales-lose-momentum-in-november-as-inventory-slightly-tightens

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/12/existing-home-sales-lose-momentum-in-november-as-inventory-slightly-tightens








30

xl Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “On Track for Faster Growth” Fannie Mae:



xli Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Our Thoughts Near Term Growth Outlook

Remains Intact” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, September 10, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from


xlii Yun, Lawrence, ”Real Estate Trends and Outlook” Presentation at Residential Real Estate Forum,


xliii Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Housing Caught a Winter Cold and the



xliv Foot Traffic, November, 2014 [journal on-line] available at

http://www.realtor.org/infographics/infographic-november-2014-foot-traffic

xlv Yun, Lawrence, ”Real Estate Trends and Outlook” Presentation at Residential Real Estate Forum,


xlvi Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with

a Whimper” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, December 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available







31

IV. Residential Bibliography

“Databases, Tables and Calculators by Subject” Bureau of Labor Statistics Data, [journal on-line]

available from http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

“Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter Estimate: Bureau of Economic Analysis, [journal on-line]

available from http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

“National Income and Product Accounts, Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2014” Bureau of

Economic Analysis, [journal on-line] available from


“United States GDP Growth Rate: 1947-2014” Trading Economics [journal on-line] available from


Foot Traffic, November, 2014 [journal on-line] available at


Amado, Kimberly “Dow Jones Closing History: Top Highs and Lows Since 1929” About News [journal

on-line] available from

http://useconomy.about.com/od/stockmarketcomponents/a/Dow_History.htm

DeSanctis, Adam “Existing Home Sales Rise in October, First Year Over Year Increase Since October,

2013” NAR News Release, November 20, 2014 [journal on-line] available from

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/11/existing-home-sales-rise-in-october-first-year-over-

year-increase-since-october-2013

DeSanctis, Adam “Existing Home Sales Lose Momentum in November as Inventory Slightly Tightens”

NAR News Release, December 22, 2014 [journal on-line] available from

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/12/existing-home-sales-lose-momentum-in-november-

as-inventory-slightly-tightens

32

Davidson, Paul “Business Investment Outlook Brightens” USA Today, April 21, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/21/business-investment-

outlook-brightening/7875061/

Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “2014: Private Forces Move to the Fore”

Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, January 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Chilly Start to 2014” Fannie Mae:

Economic & Strategic Research, February 10, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “On Track for Faster Growth” Fannie Mae:



Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Inventory Adjustment and Weather Aside,


available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Housing Caught a Winter Cold and the

Economy Sneezed” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, May 12, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “Rough First Quarter Reduces 2014 Growth


from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Velz, Orawin “A Stronger Second Half Can’t Save This



33

Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “A Solid Second Half for the Economy” Fannie

Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, August 11, 2014 [journal on-line] available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Our Thoughts Near Term Growth Outlook

Remains Intact” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, September 10, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “U.S. Growth Outlook Remains Solid but

Global Growth Slows” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, October 10, 2014 [journal on-

line] available from


Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “Moderating Growth in 2015” Fannie Mae:



Duncan, Douglas, Hughs-Cromwick, Brian, Vel, Orawin “2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with

a Whimper” Fannie Mae: Economic & Strategic Research, December 10, 2014 [journal on-line]

available from


Yun, Lawrence, ”Real Estate Trends and Outlook” Presentation at Residential Real Estate Forum,


Yun, Lawrence, “Report on November, 2014 Survey” Realtor Confidence Index [journal on-line]

available from http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/2014-11-realtors-

confidence-index-2014-12-22.pdf

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