2014 Meat Animal Outlook Chris Hurt Purdue Extension Service August 2013
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Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University 2014 Meat Animal Outlook Chris Hurt Purdue Extension Service August 2013
description
2014 Meat Animal Outlook Chris Hurt Purdue Extension Service August 2013. A Year of High Anxiety!. $5-. $8+. $5 to $6. Corn Price. 2013 Crop Size and Price?. A New Year and Maybe a New ERA Lower Feed Prices Lower Farm L evel Animal P rices Moderating Retail Meat Prices. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of 2014 Meat Animal Outlook Chris Hurt Purdue Extension Service August 2013
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
2014 Meat Animal OutlookChris Hurt
Purdue Extension Service
August 2013
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
A Year of High Anxiety!
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
$5 to $6
$5-
$8+
Corn Price
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
2013 Crop Size and Price?
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
A New Year and Maybe a New ERA
1. Lower Feed Prices
2. Lower Farm Level Animal Prices
3. Moderating Retail Meat Prices
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Time to get back in the GAME: Production
2013 2014
Beef -1% -6%
Pork +1% +3%
Chicken +2% +3%
Turkey -1% +3%
Total $ Meats 0% +1%
Eggs +1% +1%
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Per Capita Total Meats and PoultryRetail Weight: USDA
Po
un
ds
pe
r ca
pita
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
06-07 8 9 10 11 12 13 1480
85
90
95
100
105
94.294.9
93.8
86.3
Change in Per Capita Consumption vs. Pre-Feed Price Surge
Turkey Chicken
Pork Beef
% o
f 200
6 an
d 20
07
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
06-07 8 9 10 11 12 13 1480
90
100
110
120
130
140
150Change in Price: 2006 & 2007 = 100
Live Steers
Chicken-Wholesale
Live Hogs
Turkey
% o
f 200
6 &
200
7
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
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95
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
32,531.331,711.8
29,295.3
U.S. Beef Cows January 1M
illio
n H
ead
6 YearsExpansion
8 YearsContraction
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000All Cattle and Calves: January 1
Mil
lio
n H
ea
d
1952
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Source: Kansas State University
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Costs
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
$87 $85
$92 $92
$83
$95
$115
$123$125
$131Choice Steer per Capita Supplies and Prices
Price
Per Capita Supply
$/Cw
t.
Poun
ds/C
apit
a
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
$111$107 $108
$103$96
$109
$134
$146$142
$165
750-800 Oklahoma City Feeder Steer Prices and per Capita Supplies
Price
Per Capita Supply
$/cw
t.
Poun
ds/c
apita
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Beef Cow Expansion Requires:1. Improved Pasture
2. Calf Prices of $1.75+
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
PASTURE Recovery:
57% of Beef Cows
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Drought Trimmed $2.6 Billion From U.S. Pork Industry c. hurt Purdue
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 46 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
Purdue Estimated Hog Costs Per Live Hundredweight: $
/cw
t
$35
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 46 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
43
48
52 5350
3940
53
57
4243
39
50
6060
50
6971
65626261
5959
6970
6261
6563
56
Purdue Estimated Hog Prices and Costs Per Live Hundredweight:
Hog Price
Costs
$/c
wt
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
M90 J91S9
2D93
M95 J96S9
7D98 M0 J01 S2 D3 M5 J6 S7 D8
M10 J11S1
24,500.0
5,000.0
5,500.0
6,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000Breeding Herd and Market Herd (Million Head)
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
7.22
7.87
8.83
10.09
f(x) = 0.0774819455082613 x + 6.77600995732575R² = 0.969819254632257
Annual U.S. Pigs Per Litter
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
M2
J2
S2
D2
M3
J3
S3
D3
M4
J4
S4
D4
M5
J5
S5
D5
M6
J6
S6
D6
M7
J7
S7
D7
M8
J8
S8
D8
M9
J9
S9
D9
M10
J10
S10
D10
M11
J11
S11
D11
M12
J12
S12
D12
M13
J13
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
% Change in US Breeding HerdVersus Same Quarter Previous Year: USDA
Quarter Reports:March, June, Sept, Dec
Pe
rce
nt
March ‘10 = 5.76m down 7% from Mar 08
June 13= 5.882 down 2% from June 13
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14$38
$43
$48
$53
$58
$63
$68
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$50
$47 $47 $48
$41
$55
$66
$61$63
$60
Barrow & Gilt prices and Per Capita Supplies
Price
Per Capita Supply
$/cw
t.
Poun
ds/c
apit
a
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
$71
$64
$76$80
$78
$83
$79
$87
$102
$93
Broiler Per Capita Supplies and Prices
Price Per Capita
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
$73$77
$82
$88
$77
$90
$102$106
$100 $99
Turkey Prices and Per Capita Supplies
Price Per Capita
Pric
e
Poun
ds/C
apit
a
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
5
10
15
20
25 23%22%
Exports % of Domestic Production
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Beef
Eggs
Pe
rce
nt
Source: Iowa State University
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Rockwell Print Jay County
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