2014 Manning Barometer

Setbacks and Opportunities

Methodology • A total of 1,ooo on-line interviews were conducted

with adult Canadians along with an oversample of 500 self-defined Conservatives. The interviews were conducted between December 16th to 18th, 2013. The margin of error for a representative sample of this size is 3.1 percentage points within a 95% confidence interval.

• The margin of error is greater when looking at sub-segments of the population Results reported in this presentation have a maximum margin of error of 4.9 percentage points within a 95% confidence interval.

• Detailed findings can be found on the Manning Centre website.

Setbacks

2% 3%

12%

47%

12%

5%1%

17%

2%4%

14%

52%

13%

3%1%

10%

2013 2014Political Ideology

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

4.24.0

4.14.0

3.9

Political Ideology

Atlantic: 2012: 4.22013: 4.02013: 3.9

Political Ideology

Quebec: 2012: 3.92013: 3.92013: 3.9

Ontario: 2012: 4.12013: 4.02014: 3.9

Prairies: 2012: 4.32013: 4.22014: 4.1

BC: 2012: 4.22013: 4.02014: 3.8

Liberal Cons. NDP Green None Don't know

31%

26%

18%

6% 5%9%

In general terms, which of the following party affiliations do you most closely

identify with?

Party Identification

Atlantic: 2012: 26%2013: 18%2014: 25%

Regional Conservative ID

Quebec: 2012: 12%2013: 13%2014: 16%

Ontario: 2012: 35%2013: 24%2014: 25%

Prairies: 2012: 40%2013: 43%2014: 48%

BC: 2012: 33%2013: 25%2014: 20%

Economy as Dominant Concern

14%

11% 11%

5% 5% 5% 5%

5.52 5.364.59

2.67

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Economy)

On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

5.22 4.89 4.60

2.42

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Health Care)

On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

5.72 5.725.17

3.74

Perceived Ability to Deal With Most Important Issue (Unemployment)

On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

5.61 5.604.76

3.30

Perceived Ability to Deal With Emerging Issue (Poverty and Environment)

On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent

Canada’s Preparedness to Deal with Upcoming challenges in...

Economy Social Issues Democratic Institutions

2% 3% 3%

24% 22% 20%

Very Prepared Somewhat Prepared

Opportunities: Clear Conservative Policy Directions

Direction of the country

48%51%

1%

Right direction Wrong directionDK

Current CPC support : 29%

Atlantic: Right : 44%Wrong: 35%

Right/Wrong DirectionRegional Differences

Quebec: Right : 49%Wrong: 49%

Ontario: Right : 49%Wrong: 51%

Prairies: Right : 60%Wrong: 40%

BC: Right : 32%Wrong: 68%

Direction of the country (All Canada)

51%

49%

Economy

61%

38%

Moral and Ethical Issues

41%

59%

Social Policies 4

4%

55%

Democratic Processes and Insti-

tutions

Direction of the country (Conservatives)

61%

39%

Economy

62%

38%

Moral and Ethical Issues

49%

51%

Social Policies

52%

48%

Democratic Processes and Insti-

tutions

59%

41%

Economy

In their own words

Next steps for democracy

In their own words

Next steps for the economy

In their own words

Next steps for social policy

In their own words

Next steps for society

Canadian Consensus

• 93% of Canadians support enhancing the powers of elections Canada to investigate electoral wrongdoings

• 93% support full disclosure of how public funds are spent

• 92% want to make Party Leaders more accountable to their respective caucus

Canadian Consensus

• 91% want to develop renewable energy

• 89% support reforming campaign financing laws to prohibit unions and companies from providing loans to parties and candidates

• 89% want to strengthen the role of caucus in the House of Commons

• 84% of Canadians support expanding trade with other countries

Conservative Agenda and Public AgendaHIGH PUBLIC, LOW CONS.• Better balance between energy

development and environment

• The environment

• Health Care

HIGH PUBLIC, HIGH CONS.• Investing in

renewable energy

• Settling aboriginal land claims

• Full disclosure of spending of public funds

• Aging population

• Jobs & economy

• Reform or abolish Senate

• Accountability

• Tolerance

• Providing well paid jobs to young Canadians

• Dealing with euthanasia

• Skills training for older workers

• Expanding international trade

LOW PUBLIC, LOW CONS.• Legalize marijuana

• Abortion

• Extending working lives of Canadians beyond 65

• Creating high quality jobs in energy sector

• Attracting highly skilled foreign workers

LOW PUBLIC, HIGH CONS.• Reducing the cost of doing business

• Limiting immigration

General public agenda

Conservative Supporters Agenda

Concluding Remarks

Winning Back “The 16%”

• Men

• Between the age of 46 and 64

• In Ontario

• University Education

Winning Back “The 16%”

• Health Care

• Lower Taxes

• Aging Population

• Accountability

• Full Disclosure of

Spending of Public Funds

NEXT STEPS: Policy priorities

HIGH PUBLIC SUPPORT AND HIGH CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT

• Investing in renewable energy

• Settling aboriginal land claims

• Full disclosure of spending of public funds

• Aging population• Jobs & economy• Reform or abolish Senate

• Accountability• Tolerance• Providing well paid jobs

to young Canadians• Dealing with euthanasia• Skills training for older

workers• Expanding international

trade

Conservative Intellectual Capital

31.0%

26.4% 27.8% 26.0% 26.0%

18.0%

Liberals Conservatives NDP

LIB

CONS

NDP

Party Identification Tracking: A Cautionary Tale