2014 Job Market Perspectives
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- 1.Job Market Perspectives 2014
2. 2 The U.S. job market: the work continues 3. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 3adeccousa.com Our 2013 edition of Job Market Perspectives noted that the employ- ment market was a work in progress. Jobs had been added albeit in stronger spurts that occurred in the beginning of 2012 and the economy was in a better place than it had been for quite some time. The year concluded without any major shifts and with a general sense of optimism. 2013 began in a very similar pattern to 2012 with the addition of 622,000 new jobs in the first quarter. However, the pace of the job market had cooled slightly by the end of the second quarter and the same persistent questions heard in the past emerged where are the jobs? Is there a chance of a double dip recession? Will the economy ever return to its pre-recession state? Additionally, a number of other issues the fiscal cliff, uncertainty around the Affordable Care Act, the timing of decisions facing the Federal Reserves policies, and the federal government shutting down from political gridlock on October 1, 2013 made the economic climate a bit harder for business owners and hiring managers to feel confident about hiring. Despite numbers that were not as robust or as high as hoped throughout the year, one trend that did emerge and continue was consistency in the economy. As more and more experts analyzed the nations unemployment, it became apparent that the return to post-recession hiring levels would not happen overnight. However, more than 1.4 million jobs were added between January and August and preliminary estimates for a healthy holiday season added to an overall sense of progress a feeling needed to keep the economy moving in the right direction. 2013: The year in review 4. 4 A milestone occurred in September 2013 that received some media attention, but not nearly as much as it did on the day it happened five years before. On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers the fourth largest investment bank in the United States filed the largest bankruptcy claim in U.S. history. This action played a major role in setting off the financial crisis, causing a need within weeks for the federal government to bail out other banking institutions, the automotive industry and homeowners with defaulted mortgages. In the weeks prior to the crisis, the unem- ployment rate had already started the climb upward. While the rate had stayed in the 4 percent range throughout 2007, it had risen to 6.1 percent by September 2008 trouble had already been brewing for some time. We now know that economists have pinpointed the beginning of the recession as December 2007, and the end of the recession as June 2009. But, as weve passed the fifth anniversary of the begin- ning of the financial crisis and are now approaching the same anniversary of the end of the recession, how much has actually changed? Are we better off now than we were then? Payrolls add 169,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is 7.3% and there are 11.3 million unemployed Americans. Most robust payroll addition since the start of the recession. 332,000 jobs are added. The unemployment rate is 7.7%. The date economists identify as the end of the recession. The unemployment rate is 9.5%. The month economists identify as the start of the recession. The unemployment rate is 5.0% and there are 7.7 million unemployed Americans. The biggest drop in total non-farm payrolls. 830,000 jobs are lost in this month. The unemployment rate is 8.7%. Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy setting off the start of the financial crisis. In the coming months, the government steps in to keep major banks, the auto industry and homeowners afloat. The unemployment rate is 6.1%. DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 How far have we come in six years? 5. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 5adeccousa.com The job market by sector Non-Farm Labor Force 138 136.8 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 93 459 830 472 74332 169 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 332, FEB 13 Biggest loss 830, MAR 09 IN THOUSANDS Private Sector Labor Force 115.6 115 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 51 429 812 442 87319 152 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 319, FEB 13 Biggest loss 821, APR 09 IN THOUSANDS The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million in December 2013, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. BLS: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT, DECEMBER 2013 6. 6 The job market by sector Construction 7.49 5.83 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 33 70 162 95 16 48 0 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 48, FEB 13 Biggest loss 162, MAR 09 IN THOUSANDS Manufacturing 13.7 12 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 11 83 173 145 923 14 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 44, JAN 12 Biggest loss 295, JAN 09 IN THOUSANDS Retail 15.57 15.38 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 5.5 73 95.9 23.8 25.8 44 55.3 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 69.6, NOV 12 Biggest loss 122.2, NOV 08 IN THOUSANDS 7. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 7adeccousa.com Healthcare services 13.1 14.66 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 27.2 13.4 7.2 25.4 6 28.6 32.7 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 36.6, SEP 12 Biggest loss 6, DEC 13 IN THOUSANDS Business & professional services 18 18.25 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 39 61 137 105 1993 23 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 99, NOV 10 Biggest loss 194, NOV 11 IN THOUSANDS Financial activities 8.28 7.9 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 10 36 44 25 4 3 5 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 23, MAR 12 Biggest loss 53, APR 09 IN THOUSANDS Healthcare services is the only sector that did not lose jobs during the recession 8. 8 The job market by sector Temporary 2.55 2.81 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 14.4 25.3 58.3 20.5 27.5 13.1 40.4 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 52.9, JAN 10 Biggest loss 119.6, NOV 08 IN THOUSANDS IT consulting & management 933 2.91 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 12.3 7.2 6.3 4 5.36.6 1.7 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 12.3, DEC 07 Biggest loss 9.4, JAN 10 IN THOUSANDS Legal 1.17 1.12 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 2.6 4.2 4.2 5.1 .5 2.7 .8 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 4.3, JUL 11 Biggest loss 6, FEB 09 IN THOUSANDS 9. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 9adeccousa.com Accounting 966 927.2 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 12 .7 .3 6.1 24.7 13.4 2.4 THOUS THOUS DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 31, NOV 10 Biggest loss 24.7, DEC 13 IN THOUSANDS Engineering & architectural services 1.4 1.37 Jobs gained Jobs lost Total employed 5.1 10.9 17.8 11.9 5.33.1 .4 MILLION MILLION DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13 DEC 07 DEC 13 Biggest gain 7.6, JAN 12 Biggest loss 19.5, FEB 09 IN THOUSANDS Employment in retail trade rose by 55,000 in December. Within the industry, job gains occurred in food and beverage stores (+12,000), clothing and accessories stores (+12,000), general merchandise stores (+8,000), and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+7,000). Retail trade added an average of 32,000 jobs per month in 2013. BLS: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT, DECEMBER 2013 10. 10 2014 outlook After reviewing economic data from the last five years, it is apparent how dire the jobs landscape was from 2007 to 2009 with thousands of jobs being lost each month. The upturn seen the last two years is a sign that prospects are improving. In fact, economists predict 2014 to be similar to 2013 in a number of ways. 11. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 11adeccousa.com Overall job market outlook Experts believe that 2014s economy will most likely grow at a slightly quicker pace than 2013s, but the year will not be marked by explosive growth. Payrolls are expected to increase in a pattern similar to what was seen in 2013 consistent, but not robust, growth. The majority of economists are forecasting that the pace of hiring in 2014 will be around 200,000 jobs a month, which is slightly higher than the 2013 average. At this pace, the unemployment rate could potentially fall to 6.8 percent by the end of the year. However, the unemployment rate may sneak up if formerly discouraged, non-looking job seekers begin to look for work or re-enter the workforce. While an additional 200,000 jobs per month would have been a very welcome sight in 2009, the reality is that Americans have already been waiting longer than previously expected. At this rate, it will take a number of years for the economy to return to pre-recession levels. The upside in this data is that payroll additions have become more consistent, and ultimately this continuity brings stability, which encourages hiring. With the August 2013 data reflecting 42 straight months of private sector growth, there is reason to be optimistic about the future. 12. 12 Where the jobs are by sector Construction Retail Business & Professional Services Manufacturing Healthcare Financial Activities 122,000 380,000 614,000 77,000 208,000 84,000 NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED Carpentry Painting Plumbing Electrical work Food and beverage stores Furniture and home furnishing stores Automobile dealers Advertising, promotions and public relations Human resources Information security Plastic and rubber products manufacturing Wood product manufacturing Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Personal care Home health aides Physical therapy assistance Credit intermediation Banking Insurance carriers HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS 13. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 13adeccousa.com The health care and social assistance sector will account for almost a third of the projected job growth from 2012 to 2022. Employment in the construction sector is expected to see a large increase, while still not reaching prerecession levels. Manufacturing is projected to experience a slight decline in employment over the projection period. BLS: MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW, DECEMBER 2013 Temporary Legal Engineering & Architectural Services Computer Systems Design & IT Consulting & Management Accounting 247,400 1,000 38,000 113,700 12,700 NEW JOBS ADDED JOBS LOST NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED NEW JOBS ADDED Professional sector positions Service producing positions Paralegals Legal assistants E-discovery Civil engineering Automated design Structure maintenance Software development Cybersecurity Network infrastructure Certified public accountants Auditing Compliance HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS HOT JOBS 14. 14 Mountain Pacific West South Central MT ID WY NV UT CO AZ NM WA OR CA HI AK TX LA AR OK 6.7% 8.0% 6.1% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS Healthcare Professional & business services Leisure & hospitality Construction Healthcare Engineering Green technology IT Construction Healthcare Professional & business services Customer service Machinery operators Where the jobs are by region Unemployment data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Report, November 2013 15. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 15adeccousa.com West North Central East North Central New England East South Central South Atlantic Middle Atlantic ND SD MN NE IA KS MO WI MI IL IN OH VT CT MA NH ME RI MS AL TN KY FL GA SC NC VA WV MD DE DC PA NJ NY 4.9% 7.9% 6.9% 7.7% 6.7% 7.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS Customer service Transportation Healthcare Education Customer service Manufacturing Administrative support Engineering Education Healthcare IT Finance Healthcare Professional & business services Customer service Healthcare Professional & business services Finance Construction Finance Professional & business services Healthcare IT Construction 16. 16 Adecco recently polled 500 senior executives Vice President and above across a variety of industries within the United States to get their insights on two important issues relating to the jobs landscape: the skills gap and challenges facing their business. The skills gap Which of the following do you feel best defines the gap in the U.S. workforce skills gap? Lack of soft skills (i.e., communication, critical thinking, creativity, collaboration) 44% Lack of technical skills 22% Lack of strong leadership skills 14% Lack of computer based technology skills 12% I dont think there is a skills gap in the U.S. workforce 8% Which of the following do you feel is the greatest contributing factor to the skills gap in the U.S. workforce? U.S. education system doesnt educate/prepare people with the skills needed for todays job market 54% People are not interested in pursuing careers in sectors/fields affected by the skills gap (e.g., science, technology, engineering, math) 23% Lack of on-the-job training or enrichment opportunities 22% What are business leaders seeing? 17. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 17adeccousa.com Do you think corporate apprenticeship/ training programs (i.e. one-on-one shadowing, cross training) could help alleviate the skills gap in the U.S. workforce? Which of the following industries is most affected by the skills gap in the U.S. workforce? Employers must consider how to set up low-cost training and employee education programs. These could include knowledge transfer between junior and senior staff members, or working with local schools to clearly define what skills your organization needs in its future employees. Manufacturing 30% Technology 21% Professional & Business Services 19% Engineering 12% Healthcare Services 11% Construction 4% Finance 2% Leisure & Hospitality 2% Which of the following is the biggest barrier to creating in-house training programs that could help address the skills gap in the U.S. workforce? The cost of developing training programs 42% Not enough personnel to conduct training programs 10% Executive team doesnt think its a priority or needed 30% Employees not interested in participating in programs 18% Yes 89% No 11% 18. 18 Senior executives dont believe the challenges they face are from high unemployment or skilled workers, but more so federal policies and the high costs attached to labor. Challenges facing businesses Which of the following, if any, is a threat to U.S. business as a result of the skills gap in the U.S. workforce? More investment is going to companies abroad instead of to U.S. companies 64% Businesses are missing out on growth opportunities 45% R&D product development is suffering 34% Profits are suffering 30% Which of the following, if any, do you think is a challenge foreign companies face when expanding locations into the U.S.? High cost of labor in the U.S. 61% Healthcare costs in the U.S. 37% U.S. labor regulations 36% Lack of skilled workers in the U.S. 33% U.S. union demands 32% Pension/retirement costs in the U.S. 28% Lack of demand for products or services offered in the U.S. market 11% None of the above 5% Which of the following, do you think is currently the greatest threat to the U.S. economy? Federal spending 24% Global competition 22% High unemployment 20% Lack of skilled workers to fill jobs 13% Government regulations 10% Economic turmoil abroad 8% Lack of computer based technology skills 3% 19. 2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco 19adeccousa.com More work ahead As we look back on challenges that have faced the economy and the job market in the last five years, were now able to better understand how deep the cuts went. As we continue to recover from these setbacks, it is becoming clearer that, while progress is taking place, complete recovery will take time. Throughout the year, weve seen many of our clients express enough confidence in the economy to move forward on hiring decisions and bring temporary workers on to permanent payrolls; a very encouraging sign that we believe will continue into the next year. As we look towards 2014, there are a number of positive strides taking place within the job market that all signal a strengthening economy. With nearly four years of private sector payroll additions under the U.S. economys belt, many believe that 2014 will build on the growth seen in 2013 with similar, if not slightly higher, job additions, and continued growth in the service producing sectors. The U.S. has seen a number of changes to the economy in the past six years, and its finally safe to say that the nations jobs landscape is moving in the right direction. For more information on job market and hiring trends, please visit adeccousa.com or contact your local Adecco representative today. 20. 2014 Adecco 877.8.adecco adeccousa.com Adecco Staffing U.S. is the nations leading provider of recruiting and workforce solutions. We partner with small and mid-sized businesses, as well as Fortune 500 companies across all major industries. And we offer job opportunities and advice to American workers at every stage of their careers. Adecco has over 400 career centers and, on any given day, connects 70,000 workers to the best job opportunities across the country, making us one of Americas largest employers. We leverage this position of leadership to help individuals continuously improve their position at work and in life. To be fulfilled, but never complacent. To set their sights higher and achieve more than they thought possible. Whether your goal is to change careers, or change the world, we want to help you find what youre looking for and get more out of work.