2014 Grand Challenge Symposium
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Transcript of 2014 Grand Challenge Symposium
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2014 Grand Challenge Symposium
UseIT Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology
Southern California Earthquake Center
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The Grand Challenge
Use SCEC-VDO to visualize earthquake scenarios, in particular Loma Prieta type aftershock sequences, in honor of the 25th anniversary the 1989 M6.9 earthquake.
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Loma Prieta M6.9 Background
• This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake.
• Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the post-earthquake review process that places red, yellow, or green placards on shaken buildings. Its successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident.
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The Grand Challenge Process
1. Rupture Selection Process
2. Visualizing the Risk- ShakeMaps and HAZUS
3. Improving SCEC-VDO
4. Creating Visualizations
5. Conclusions
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UCERF3Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast 3
Four main model components:1. Fault models2. Deformation models3. Earthquake rate models4. Probability models
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Hazard Curve – OpenSHA• By Location
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List Generation
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Final Rupture ID’s: Loma Prieta “Like”
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USGS List
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SCEC-VDO & UCERF3
• Obtained rupture ID’s
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Super Computer Generated Simulations
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List Generation
23 x 500 = 11,500 Simulations!
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Final SimulationsSimulation for rupture ID 64481North San Andreas Fault M7.2 Substantial
Typical
Minor
Minor
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Probabilistic Interpretation Analysis Team
Gutenberg-Richter relation
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Data & Statistical AnalysisAnalysis Team
Main Magnitude
M7.2
This graph shows that scenarios with higher number of aftershocks have a greater probability of having a magnitude larger than the main event.
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ShakeMapsVisualization
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Implementing ShakeMaps into HAZUSAnalysis Team
• HAZUS uses census data to help determine economic losses as well as injuries and fatalities for a given area.
• In addition to census data, HAZUS requires the user to supply a ShakeMap in a file format that it can interpret.
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HAZUS and GIS
• Once specific parameters are set, HAZUS is able to generate loss estimates based on economic investments, injuries, and fatalities.
• Using the raw data generated from HAZUS, the user can then map this data via GIS.
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SCEC-VDODevelopment
What is SCEC-VDO?• Southern California Earthquake Center-Virtual Display of Objects • A software application that allows the exploration of faults, earthquakes,
and other geological events in a 3-dimensional environment
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SCEC-VDODevelopment
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SCEC-VDODevelopment
How does it work?• SCEC-VDO is built using
Java – Java3D, a separate library
for 3D visualization– It is program that has
numerous plugins that allow the user to display different geological features on a map
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SCEC-VDODevelopment
How does it help the scientific community?• SCEC-VDO is widely used by geologists and seismologists to develop new
models– UCERF3
• Visual representation of a complex natural phenomena– Geometry of fault ruptures– Connections– Topography– Video-making Capability
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HAZUS Plugin in SCEC-VDODevelopment
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HAZUS Plugin in SCEC-VDODevelopment
• Updates• Events class was hard-coded and
required over 5000 lines of code• Now has under 800 lines of code and
new HAZUS info can be added easily• New color scheme• Legend Updates
• Importing Process• Information needed is put into XML file• New tab is added if necessary
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Loma Prieta Near You VideosVisualization
• The team created videos for each of the 23 rupture scenarios.
• Each video contains three-dimensional viewing of the rupture plane.
• ShakeMaps and HAZUS were integrated into each visualization.
Rupture Plane of a Magnitude 7.2 Scenario on the Northern San Andreas Fault
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Scripting PluginDevelopment
• Why is it important to have video production capabilities in SCEC-VDO?
• What are itsshortcomings?
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Timeline Scripting PluginDevelopment
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Aftershock Scenario SortingDevelopment
o Eliminating Spontaneous Events and related aftershockso Filtering events by various attributes
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Aftershock VisualizationsVisualization Team
Typical Scenarios- contained an average amount of aftershocks based on the five hundred simulations provided.
Minor Scenarios- contained less than the average number of aftershocks.
Substantial Scenarios- contained more than the average number of aftershocks.
Substantial Aftershock Scenario for the Great Valley 4b Fault
The team created videos that spatially demonstrated three different types of aftershock scenarios for each rupture.
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Media TeamMichael MatchenMichael Gonzalez
Sarah VargasTerri Mcintosh
Michael Francisco
Analysis TeamRachel Hausmann
Sheila BartElena Pierce
Georgina CamposKrystel Rios
Thanh Le
Development TeamErnest Scapini
Ali SellstedMark Krant
Brandon GreenGreg Berger
Francisco RaygozaPaulo Dos Santos
Visualization TeamJackie FelixRyan Meier
Krista McPhersonRory Norman
Paulo Dos Santos
Dr. Tom JordanDr. Bob de GrootNick RousseauMark Benthien