2014 GENEVA MOTOR SHOW OICA PRESS CONFERENCE · GENEVA MOTOR SHOW OICA PRESS CONFERENCE ... •The...

2014

GENEVA

MOTOR

SHOW

OICA PRESS

CONFERENCE

Patrick BLAIN – President

March 5, 2014

March 5, 2014 1

I. Production (2013/2012/2009)

II. New vehicles sales (2013/2005)

III. Sales forecasts 2014

IV. Vehicles in use (2012/2005)

V. Motorization rate (2012/2005)

VI. Fatalities are decreasing worldwide

VII. Statement : how can public policies attract

investment in the auto sector

OICA statistics

All data are “all vehicles”: PC, LCV, HCV, BUS

2 March 5, 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 011 2 012 2 013

Million

3

I. Production: Evolution by region 2013

March 5, 2014

87.2 2013/2012: +3.6%, +3 million

+8%

+9%

+4%

0%

-1%

-2%

+9%

JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE

EU 27/EFTA

NAFTA

SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST

AFRICA

28% 25%19%

24%

14%19%

22%

19%16%

17%

33%36%

4% 6% 5%

4% 3% 4%1% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2 009 2013

AFRICA




JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

NAFTA

EU 27

4

I. Production: share by region 2013/2009/2005

March 5, 2014

4 years 4 years

+16 pts

+3 pts

-3 pts

-3 pts

-10 pts

+5 pts

-3 pts -6 pts

+2 pts -1 pt

+1 pt -1 pt

0

5

10

15

20

25 Million

0

5

10

15

20

25

I. Vehicles production: top 15 countries

1,4% 1,8%

2,2%

2,5% 2,5%

2,7%

3% 3,5%

4,3% 4,4%

5,1%

6,5%

11%

12,6%

25,2%

2005

17,7% 16%

8,5% 8,5%

5,5% 5,3% 4,1%

4%

3,7% 2,7%

2,5%

2,4%

2% 1,7% 1,5%

2013

March 5, 2014 5

Top 15 = 89% of

global production

Top 15 = 86%

of global

production

Top 5: 60%

Top 10: 78%

Top 5: 56%

Top 10: 76% Of global production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

6

II. New vehicles’ sales*: growth by region

March 5, 2014

2013/2012: +3.9%, +3.2 million 85.4

+7%

+7%

+3%

+2%

0%

-2%

-4%

* Not including police, military and administration vehicles

AFRICA



NAFTA

EU 27/EFTA


JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

27% 25% 16%

31%

20%

22%

11%

9%

8%

20%

34% 39%

5% 7% 7%

4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2009 2013

AFRICA


CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA MIDDLE EAST JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

NAFTA

EU 27/EFTA

7

II. New vehicles’ sales* share by region 2013/2009/2005

March 5, 2014

4 years 4 years

+14 pts +5 pts

-2 pts

-1 pt -11 pts

+2 pts

-2 pts -9 pts

+2 pts +1 pt


25,7%

18,6%

6,3%

4,4% 3,8%

3,8%

3,5% 3% 2,6% 2,1%

1,8%

1,7%

1,6%

1,4%

1,3%

0

5

10

15

20

25

8

II. New vehicles’ sales*: Top 15 countries – 2013/2005

March 5, 2014

2013

26,4%

8,9% 8,7%

5,5%

4,3% 3,9%

3,8% 3% 2,7% 2,6%

2,5% 2,2%

1,8% 1,8%

1,5%

0

5

10

15

20

25 Million

2005 Top 15 = 80% of

global sales

Top 5: 59%

Top 10: 74%

Top 5: 54%

Top 10: 70%

Of global sales

Top 15 = 82% of

global sales


9

III. 2014 sales forecasts

594

693

551

567

342

418

Total +2%

around 88 M vehicles

USA +5%

Brazil +1%

South Africa 0% Australia +5%

Russia -5%

Germany +2%

March 5, 2014

Japan

-10%

UK* +1%

France 0%

Italy** +1%

UE 28 +3%

China +8%

to +10%

Others +4%

* only LV ; **only PC

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Million

JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

IV. Vehicles in use: growth by region

March 5, 2014 10

2012/2011: +4.1%, +45 million 1.144 Bn

+1%

+1%

+1%

+4% +6%

+7%

+11%

EU 27/EFTA


NAFTA



AFRICA

IV. Vehicles in use: region shares

March 5, 2014 11

30% 28% 25%

31% 29%

27%

10%

9%

8%

14% 18%

22%

6% 6% 7%

6% 7% 7%

3% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2009 2012

AFRICA


CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA MIDDLE EAST

JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA

NAFTA

EU 27/EFTA

4 years 3 years

+1 pt

+4 pts

+4 pts

-1 pt -1 pt

-2 pts -2 pts

-2 pts -3 pts

+1 pt

12

V. Motorization rate 2005

594

693

551

525

567

342

418

Average rate: 144 veh./1,000 inh.

797

586

195

124

181 142

86 44 64 24

9

40

663

117

146

217

124

143

NAFTA: 631

C&S

America: 110

AFRICA: 34 Asia (exc J&SK)/

Oceania/Middle

east: 35

J&SK: 523

RU/TK/Other Europe: 178 EU 27/EFTA: 531

March 5, 2014

13

V. Motorization rate 2012

594

693

551

525

567

342

418

Average rate: 170 veh./1,000 inh.

791

624

276

187

279 175

111 60 84 79

18

73

713

279

191

317

173

191

NAFTA: 647

C&S

America: 160

AFRICA: 42 Asia (exc J&SK)/

Oceania/Middle

east: 67

J&SK: 539

RU/TK/Other Europe: 254 EU 27/EFTA: 563

March 5, 2014

+3%

+46%

+6%

+25%

+90%

+3%

+43%

+18%

Versus

2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

NAFTA EU 27/ EFTA

JAPAN/SK RUSSIA/ TURKEY/

OTHER EUROPE

CENTRAL/ SOUTH

AMERICA

ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA

MIDDLE EAST

AFRICA

2005 2012

14

V. Motorization rate by region 2012/2005

March 5, 2014

MORE THAN 500 v/1,000inh.

MORE THAN 160 v/1,000 inh.

MORE THAN 60 v/1,000inh.

500

15 March 5, 2014

VI. Fatalities are decreasing worldwide

0

5

10

15 Emerging markets

Sources: IRTAD, UNECE – Fatalities rates per 10,000 vehicles

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5 Mature markets

•OICA members elaborated for the first time a statement to present their vision of the role of

public policies in attracting investment in the automotive sector.

• Manufacturing motor vehicles is vital to a strong economy, since around the world, prosperity is

so linked to mobility.

•The vehicle manufacturing industry is strategically important and helps drive national

economies, whether in terms of investment, employment, R&D and linkages to other industrial

sectors. .

• Public policies can contribute to the success of the auto industry in such fields as :

1. Market potential development

2. Legal stability and predictability

3. Skilled workforce and competitive labor costs

4. Suppliers base development

5. Logistics

•More details :

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//Press-release_Conclusion-Round-Table-

Dubrovnik.pdf

16 6 March, 2013

VII. How can public policies attract

investment in the automotive sector ?

http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Press-release_Conclusion-Round-Table-Dubrovnik.pdf











Thank you for your attention

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