2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store Expo February 19 - 21, 2013 The Mirage Hotel Las...
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Transcript of 2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store Expo February 19 - 21, 2013 The Mirage Hotel Las...
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
www.opisnet.com • [email protected]
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
A KINDER, GENTLER 2013
Presentation By: Tom Kloza
OPIS, Chief Oil Analyst732-730-2558 • E-Mail: [email protected]
Website: www.opisnet.com
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
The Non-Global Global Market
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Various Goldman Sachs’ UtterancesOPIS 1/14/2013 Who are you, and what have you done to all the bullish researchers at Goldman Sachs? A version of that question is being asked today after the latest Goldman research report observed that “we continue to believe that the oil price has peaked and expect Brent to trade in a range of $110-$100 bbl in the next three years.”
But just three days later . . . FRANKFURT--The price of oil could reach as much as $150 per barrel this summer, Goldman Sachs chief commodities strategist Jeff Currie said Thursday. At this year's global strategy conference in Frankfurt, Mr. Currie said that he thinks it possible the price may reach $150 a barrel for Brent oil. He said he wouldn't be surprised "if we woke up in summer and oil cost $150" per barrel.
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
The Variability & Volatility in CrudePrices for late-October 2012
WTI – Cushing, OK- $86/bbl •
WTI – West Texas - $82/bbl •WTS – West Texas - $81/bbl
• WCS – Hardisty, Alberta - $56/bblSynCrude – Hardisty, Alberta - $86/bbl
• Bakken - $85/bbl
• ANS - $103/bbl
• Light Sweet Crude - $107.15/bbl
• West African - $113/bbl
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Fiscal Break-Even Numbers
Source: Citi Research
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Spot Diesel And Spot Gasoline Pricing Extremes In 2012
DIESEL GASOLINE
Low (date) High (date) Low (date) High (date)
NY Harbor $2.63 (6/21) $3.38(10/11) $2.61(12/10) $3.50(4/3)
Gulf Coast $2.58 (6/21) $3.33(3/16) $2.24(6/27) $3.25(3/23)
Group 3 $2.61 (6/21) $3.69(10/9) $2.35(12/13) $3.32(9/11)
Chicago $2.50 (6/21) $3.41(10/11) $2.22(12/18) $3.72(3/20)
Los Angeles $2.56 (6/21) $3.47(8/30) $2.43 (12/13) $4.29(10/4)
S.F. $2.54 (6/21) $3.52(8/31) $2.37 (12/13) $4.22(10/4)
Pac NW $2.62 (6/21) $3.63 (4/3) $2.36 (12/6) $3.79(5/23)
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Source: Lipow Oil Associates
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Source: Lipow Oil Associates
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Source: Lipow Oil Associates
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Some Reasonable Forecasts• Total US/Canada increase of 4.6 MMBPD by
2020(from 2011 levels)– U.S. growth of 3.1 MMBPD (to 8.8 MMBPD)– Canadian growth of 1.5 MMBPD (to 4.5 MMBPD)– U.S. growth mostly in PADDs 2 and 3– Declines in Alaska/California to continue– Canadian growth primarily in the West– Revision in upward direction is more likely
• Forecast assumptions– Crude prices (LLS/Brent) remain in $90 to $120 range– Assumes some limitations (manpower, materials, regulatory,
etc.)– Limited production from some high potential prospects– Logistical assets are built to move crude to markets in a timely
fashion
Source: Turner Mason Company
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
U.S. Crude Production Change by PADD 2011 to 2020
Source: Turner Mason Company
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
U.S. Change in Crude Production by Grade 2011 to 2020
Source: Turner Mason Company
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Change in U.S. Product Yields 2011 to 2020
Source: Turner Mason Company
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
But There Is Also The “Super Light”
Light Sour16%
Medium Sour26%
Heavy2%
Super Light12%
Light Sweet44%
PADD 3 Crude Quality 2011
Light Sour 12%
Medium Sour 27%
Heavy 2%
Super Light 20%
Light Sweet 39%
PADD 3 Crude Quality 2020
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
North Dakota versus West AfricaNORTH DAKOTA WEST AFRICA
Crude Price $98/bbl $116/bbl
Gravity 41.0 API 33.5 API
Sulfur 0.20% 0.24%
LPG Volume 3.5% 1.3%
Gasoline Volume 30.7% 17.9%
Distillate Volume 34.5% 45.8%
What does this mean?• Bakken and similar U.S. crudes are cheap versus offshore
blends, but they come with some unwanted friends.• Propane grills and butane lighters should be well supplied.
We’ll make more of those unwanted liquids, even though prices are well below break-even for crude processors.
• The most highly prized molecule -- diesel -- won’t be as easy to manufacture, at least until refineries invest in some additional equipment.
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Observations on U.S. Refining Trends
• Was the flurry of refinery troubles in 2012 a statistical cluster, or a sign of things to come?
• Private Equity money is intrigued by the U.S. refining story. Only a few U.S. North American refineries are candidates for closure. More small refiners could go into Master Limited Partnership structures.
• Watch out for what consultants call the “dumb-belling” of U.S. crude oil supplies.
• Production of diesel, residual fuel, and jet fuel will fall, making exports more difficult.
• U.S. refining just concluded its most profitable summer ever, but much of the lucre was serendipitous. I know of no refineries that anticipated the ongoing surge in light feedstocks.
• The U.S. refining industry could lose the equivalent of two or three medium size plants, as refineries shift their slates toward more superlight super-sweet crude.
• Gasoline should be a surplus product for 7-8 months out of the year, with some exceptions.
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Key Drivers of Oil Price Volatility in the Next 14 Months
• Outright crude oil prices
• North American crude oil logistics
• Variable gasoline recipes
• Export & Import Dynamics
• Financial Fund Flows
• The Madness of Crowds
• And one key driver that deserves its own slide…
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
• Shallow product inventories are quick-to-fill, but also quick-to-empty
• Storage per capita is a mere fraction of what it was in 1975-1985
• Refinery turnarounds, maintenance, and projects accent the tidal swings
• Nowhere is this more of an issue than California, and the West Coast.
The Problem with Just-In-Time Inventory
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
The Seven Sisters (Ranges for 2012 Spot Prices)
ChicagoGasoline $2.45-$3.46/galULSD $2.65-$3.33/gal New York Harbor
Gasoline $2.61-$3.50/gal ULSD $2.63-$3.36/gal
Gulf CoastGasoline $2.45-$3.46/galULSD $2.65-$3.33/gal
Group 3Gasoline $2.57-$3.32/galULSD $2.66-$3.65/gal
Los AngelesGasoline $2.41-$4.29/galULSD $2.66-$3.47/gal
San FranciscoGasoline $2.39-$4.14/galULSD $2.54-$3.44/gal
Pacific NorthwestGasoline $2.42-$3.74/galULSD $2.61-$3.63/gal
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Go With the Flow!
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Why Summers Sometimes Sizzle These Days An Oil & Population Thought Experiment
1980 population 35.3-million
1980 population 6.554-million
2013 population 59.3-million
2013 population 11.07-million
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Some Rocky Mountain Extrapolations
Some PADD 5 Extrapolations
Why Summers Sometimes Sizzle These Days An Oil & Population Thought Experiment
• In 1980, every Rocky Mountain citizen had about 43 gallons of gasoline in storage for their eventual use. Those same citizens had about 24.3 gallons of diesel.
• By 2012, the Rocky Mountain population had about 24.9-gallons of gasoline per person, a drop of about 18 gallons/each. That same population had just 14 gallons of diesel, down more than 10 gallons from 1980.
• In 1980, every resident could count on about 38.53 gallons of gasoline in western state storage. Last summer, that number had dipped to about 19.77 gallons per person, or almost precisely half of what it was back in 1980.
• In 1980, each PADD 5 citizen had about 16.46 gallons per person of diesel. Last summer, that per person allotment was down to about 8.8 gallons.
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Why Summers Sometimes Sizzle These Days An Oil & Population Thought ExperimentObservations:• We’ve seen refining output rise during the same time
frame. Summer gasoline output in PADD 5 is about 1.59-million b/d these days versus just over 1-million b/d in 1980. Diesel output in PADD 5 is 586,000 b/d versus 322,000 b/d thirty three years ago. In the Rockies, gasoline production is around 291,000 b/d versus 174,000 b/d in 1980. Distillate production in PADD 4 is 204,000 b/d versus 129,000 b/d in 1980.
• So, we have better organs, and a better circulatory or distribution system . . . as long as everything works!
• Lessons learned. Refinery disruptions in either region are far more important than various inventory swings. This is probably the region of the planet that has moved most severely to just-in-time inventory management.
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
The Creeping Western Population Growth
State 1980 Population 2013 Population* %
Change
Washington 4.130-million 7.000-million +69.5%
Utah 1.461-million 2.846-million +94.8%
New Mexico 1.300-million 2.120-million +63.0%
Nevada 0.799-million 2.700-million +238%
Montana 0.787-million 1.018-million + 29%
Idaho 0.945-million 1.614-million +70.8%
Hawaii 0.965-million 1.400-million +45.0%
WPMA States 10.387-million 18.698-million +80%*I pulled these population statistics out of my ass!
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Monthly Diesel Margins
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
Janua
ry
Febru
ary
Mar
chApr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
August
Septe
mbe
r
Octob
er
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
2012 2011
2010 2009
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
0.301
0.203
0.266
0.249
0.340
0.237
0.2150.227
0.286
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
NewEngland
Mid-Atlantic Southeast Great Lakes Midwest Southwest Rockies West USA
2012 2011 2010 2009
Annual Diesel Margins
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
A Look Into The Future
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
• North America will have much cheaper crude than the rest of the world in this decade. Combined with the cheapest natural gas, that could lead to a renaissance in some industries.
• The seasonality of gasoline will only increase as time goes on. There are fundamental reasons why this market is bipolar.
• Buying in bulk on large pricing downdrafts gives marketers a huge advantage. Volatility can be leveraged for some smart businesses.
• Iran, and world hot spots can change everything, but not in a secular manner. ..
Predictions
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Most Popular Cars and Trucks in the U.S.Make Model EPA MPG* Jan. 2013 Sales Change from Jan. 2012 Sales
Ford F-Series 13-18 46,841 +21.7%
Chevrolet Silverado 12-21 35,445 +32.0%
Toyota Camry 25-41 31,897 +12.7%
Honda Accord 22-30 23,924 +75.2
Toyota Corolla/Matrix 22-30 23,822 +32.4
Ford Fusion 25-47 22,399 +64.5
Honda Civic 22-44 21,881 Unch.
Nissan Altima 27-38 21,464 – 4.0
Dodge Ram 14-20 20,474 +14.3
Ford Escape 23-33 19,939 +15.5
Honda CR-V 23-31 17,809 – 6.1
Chevrolet Equinox 16-32 17,223 +26.1
Ford Focus 28-40 16,161 +12.2
Chevrolet Malibu 21-37 15,823 + 7.8
Toyota Prius 40-50 15,772 +36.5
Ford Explorer 16-24 15,207 +52.6
*MPG ranges for regular gasoline
Biggest Loser
Biggest Gainer
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Some Recommended Reading
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
Questions & Answers
2013 WPMA National Convention & Convenience Store ExpoFebruary 19 - 21, 2013 • The Mirage Hotel • Las Vegas, Nevada
www.opisnet.com • [email protected]