2013 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

2013 Missouri Economic Forecast

Dr. David Mitchell, DirectorBureau of Economic Research

US and Missouri Compared(Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2009 to 2011)

FIREM

anGov

Health/E

dRetail

Info PST

Wholesa

le

Admin/Waste

Constructi

on

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Missouri US

Bureau of Economic Research MSU

US and Missouri Compared(Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2010 to 2011)

FIREM

anGov

Health/E

dRetail

Info PST

Wholesa

le

Admin/Waste

Constructi

on

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Missouri US



Missouri Business LoansThds of 2012:2 SA dollars

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,000

15,000,000

16,000,000

17,000,000

18,000,000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


Missouri Real Estate LoansThds of 2012:2 SA dollars

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

65,000,000

70,000,000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 30-89 days

(thds of dollars)

12/31/2

005

12/31/2

006

12/31/2

007

12/31/2

008

12/31/2

009

12/31/2

010

12/31/2

011

6/30/2

0120

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 90+ days

(thds of dollars)

12/31/2

005

12/31/2

006

12/31/2

007

12/31/2

008

12/31/2

009

12/31/2

010

12/31/2

011

6/30/2

0120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

US PI/Real Esate LoansMO PI/Real Estate Loans

$4.62

$3.26


12

14

16

18

20

22

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Missouri PI/Biz Loan (left axis)US PI/Biz Loan (right axis)

$3.26

$19.80


Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)

210,000

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

235,000

240,000

245,000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR and CAGR Trends)

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

2.9%1.7%

2%


Growth in Real Personal Income(Year over Year)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US Missouri

1.4%


Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2011 to 2012)

Less than zero

$0 to $10

$10 to $25

$25 to $50

$50 or more


Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2007Q4 to 2012)

Less than -$100

-$100 to -$50

-$50 to $0

$0 to $50

Greater than $50


US and Missouri Home Prices(1980:Q1 = 100 ; Constant $1980)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

US Missouri

99

114


US and Missouri Home PricesYear over Year Percent Change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

US Missouri


City Level Housing Prices(1995:1 =100; 1995 constant $)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Kansas City SpringfieldSt. Louis Joplin

KC 106STL 112Joplin 106Spfd 94


New Single Family Home Permitsper 10,000 population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Missouri US

13

16.1


Missouri Unemployment Rate

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Peak 9.7Current 6.9


Missouri-US Unemployment Rate Difference

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-0.9


Major City Unemployment Rates

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Kansas City St. Louis

KC 6.6STL 6.7


Other Unemployment Rates

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Minor MSAs Rural

5.5

6.9


Current County Unemployment RateSeptember 2012

Less than 5

5 to 6

6 to 7

7 to 8

greater than 8


Labor Force in Missouri

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


Labor Force in Missouri

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1.6%

0.6%-0.9%


Year to Year Change in Missouri Labor Force

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,00024,558

12,594

4,135

21,564

-21,454

-6,547

-34,042


Missouri Employment

• Peak of 2,914,418 Dec. 2006

• Trough of 2,755,850 Dec. 2009

• 2012 Average 2,794,099

• Current 2,780,697

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2012 = March 1997


Index of Missouri and US Employment(Jan 2000 = 100)

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Missouri US


US and Missouri CPS Employment(Nov 2007 =100)

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Missouri US

96.1

97.5


Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


Percent Change in County Employment September 2011 to September 2012

less than -4

-4 to -2

-2 to 0

0 to 2

greater than 2


Missouri CES and CPS Employment Compared

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CES Employment CPS Employment


Missouri CES and CPS Employment Compared

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CES Employment CPS Employment


Missouri Employment Breakdown

Industry Jan-12 Sep-12 ChangeChange in

PercentEmploy (CPS) SA 2,812.9 2,780.6 -32.3 -1.1

Nonfarm (CES) NSA 2,593.8 2,676.4 82.6 3.2Nonfarm (CES) SA 2,650.4 2,659.7 9.3 0.4

Private 2,217.1 2,227.4 10.31 0.5Construction 102 100.1 -1.9 -1.9

Financial 157.2 160.4 3.2 2.0Government 433.3 432.3 -1 -0.2

Health 419.5 428.3 8.8 2.1Information 57.9 56.3 -1.6 -2.8

Leisure 268.1 264.7 -3.4 -1.3Manufacturing 252 247.1 -4.9 -1.9

Mining 4.1 4.2 0.1 2.4Prof Biz Services 335.7 347.3 11.6 3.5

Retail 297.2 294.9 -2.3 -0.8Trans/Utilities 98.2 93.9 -4.3 -4.4

Wholesale 116.4 115.8 -0.6 -0.5Other Services 112.7 111.9 -0.8 -0.7


Monthly Change in Employment (CPS)

-16,000

-12,000

-8,000

-4,000

0

4,000

8,000


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Monthly Change in Employment (CES)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Construction(thds)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Manufacturing (thds)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Financial (thds)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Health/Education (thds)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Retail (thds)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Government (thds)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Where is Missouri Growing?(January 2012 to today)

• Kansas City (-2,946)

• St. Louis (496)

• MSA Minor (-3,200)

• Rural (-8,954)90

92

94

96

98

100

102


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kansas City Minor MSAsRural St. Louis

Nov 2007 = 100

2012-->


Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000


Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $-

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0


Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600


Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20124,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400


2013 Missouri ForecastIndustry 2013 F Change (thds)

Nonfarm (CES) 2,672.90 13.2Private 2,250.2 22.8

Construction 104.4 4.3Financial 162.2 1.8

Government 428 -4.3Health 439.1 10.8

Information 54.1 -2.2Leisure 260.3 -4.4

Manufacturing 246.3 -0.8Mining 4.3 0.1

Prof Biz Services 363.3 16.0Retail 291.5 -3.4

Trans/Utilities 91.4 -2.5Wholesale 115.7 -0.1

Other Services 111.6 -0.3

Unemployment Rate (SA) 6.10% Real Personal Income

(Millions) 241,220 4,265

2013 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

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Transcript of 2013 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.