School Bell SignalsPolls and Perspectives on

K-12 Education & Schooling

Midwest Association for Public Opinion Research (MAPOR)38th Annual Conference

November 23, 2013

Paul DiPernapaul@edchoice.org

“A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?”

Profile of Friedman/Braun Research SurveysData Collection & Processing: Braun Research, Inc. (BRI)

Interview Period: approx. 7 to 10 days

Interview Method: Live Telephone | approx. 70% landline and 30% cell phone

Sample Frame: National / General Population = Adults (age 18+)State = Registered Voters

Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD

Population Samples: National / General Population = approx. 1,000State = approx. 600

Margins of Error: National / General Population = ± 3.1 percentage points State = ± 4.0 percentage points (MOE higher for demographic groups)

Response Rates: Landline (LL) = approx. 10% to 15%Cell Phone = approx. 10% to 15%

Weighting? Yes (Age, Race, Ethnicity, Gender, Region, Landline/Cell)

Oversampling? National = Yes State = No

Considering the following perspectives in the Friedman/Braun Research surveys…

~ National (18+)

~ Regions (18+)

~ States (RV)

~ Demographics: National, States

Observing the following metrics…

~ Levels

~ Margins (i.e. differences, gaps)

~ Intensities (strong positive – strong negative)

~ Min vs. Max

Limitations, Future Research

• Larger state samples to improve demographic interpretations

• Cell phone proportion of overall sample

• Caveat: timing of state polls

• Caveat: comparing demographics across states

• Direct comparisons of issues and policies

• Test ordering of issue/policy questions

• Test wording of issue/policy questions

Survey Topics

• Priority issue; Attention to K-12 education• Direction of K-12 education• Rating the state’s public school system• K-12 education spending/funding• Grade local schools (public, charter,

private) • Preferred school type

• Charter schools• School vouchers• Education savings accounts (ESAs)• Tax-credit scholarships

Focus

• Direction of K-12 education (right direction vs. wrong track)

• Rating the state’s public school system (excellent, good, fair, poor)

• Indicated school preferences (by school type)

• Views on school vouchers (favor vs. oppose)

What do respondents say about the

state of K-12 education in the

U.S. / in their own state?

Direction of K-12 Education (2013)

Right Direction Wrong Track

% %

Hispanic 38 49 -11 73

18 to 34 33 45 -12 134

Urban 34 56 -22 174

Northeast 32 59 -27 199

Midwest 32 60 -28 226

School Parent 29 60 -31 509

Republican 30 62 -32 244

35 to 54 29 62 -33 390

Under $40,000 28 61 -33 273

Small Town 27 60 -33 261

Democrat 28 64 -36 273

NATIONAL 26 62 -36 1,000

Non-Schooler 25 62 -37 488

Suburban 24 62 -38 355

$40,000 to $79,999 25 64 -39 282

$80,000 & Over 25 64 -39 299

White 25 64 -39 717

West 24 63 -39 199

Asian 14 54 -40 20

South 21 64 -43 376

Black 24 68 -44 110

Independent 20 67 -47 288

55 & Over 20 72 -52 425

Rural 18 75 -57 176

Population Margin N =

Rating the State's Public School System

Good/Excellent Fair/Poor

% %

ND-13 77 20 57 18 605IA-13 65 34 31 8 605

KS-10 63 35 28 4 602MT-12 60 28 32 9 604WA-12 52 44 8 -3 602NJ-10 52 45 7 -2 602ME-13 50 45 5 -1 604AK-11 48 47 1 -3 1,006AR-10 48 48 0 -6 603TN-12 47 49 -2 -6 606ID-11 46 51 -5 -8 1,202

NC-12 45 52 -7 -6 601NY-10 43 56 -13 -14 603TX-13 42 54 -12 -6 613IN-10 42 55 -13 -11 1,017

MS-10 42 57 -15 -12 603AL-10 40 58 -18 -16 601RI-13 35 60 -25 -14 602

LA-12 34 63 -29 -20 802NM-11 32 65 -33 -19 808

Margin Intensity N = Population

“If it were your decision and you could select any type of school, what type of school would you select in order to obtain the best education for your child?”

What do respondents say

about school vouchers?

School Vouchers, Favor vs. Oppose (2013)

Favor Oppose

% %

School Parent 70 24 46 28 509

Under $40,000 67 23 44 19 273

Small Town 67 23 44 16 261

Black 65 24 41 25 110

18 to 34 64 24 40 6 134

Independent 66 28 38 9 288

South 65 28 37 12 376

Midwest 66 31 35 18 226

35 to 54 65 30 35 20 390

$40,000 to $79,999 63 29 34 19 282

Republican 63 32 31 12 244

White 61 32 29 9 717

Urban 60 31 29 16 174

NATIONAL 60 32 28 9 1,000

Northeast 58 31 27 -1 199

Rural 59 33 26 10 176

Non-Schooler 56 35 21 1 488

$80,000 & Over 57 39 18 -2 299

Suburban 56 38 18 0 355

55 & Over 55 37 18 4 425

Asian 57 41 16 1 20

Hispanic 51 36 15 -1 73

Democrat 52 38 14 7 273

West 50 39 11 5 199

Population Margin Intensity N =

State Voters on School Vouchers

Favor Oppose

% %

MS-10 74 20 54 33 603

NJ-10 69 26 43 20 602

IN-10 66 24 42 24 1,017

NY-10 66 26 40 26 603

TX-13 66 27 39 15 613

AK-11 64 29 35 16 1,006

LA-12 63 29 34 21 802

AL-10 62 28 34 16 601

NM-11 62 30 32 15 808

AR-10 60 30 30 21 603

TN-12 59 31 28 11 606

NC-12 57 32 25 14 601

ND-13 58 34 24 8 605

RI-13 56 33 23 9 602

KS-10 57 36 21 14 602

ID-11 56 35 21 8 1,202

WA-12 55 35 20 4 602

ME-13 55 38 17 3 604

IA-13 54 38 16 5 605

MT-12 52 39 13 4 604

Margin Intensity N = Population

Conclusions

• Americans have been very negative wrt direction of K-12 education in the country, and in most of their own states

• Broad disconnect between respondents’ survey preferences and actual school enrollments.

• Without definition or context, a plurality of Americans favor school vouchers

• With a definition, we see majority support• Variation in terms of margins and

intensities

Thank You

Questions, Comments, or Suggestions?

Paul DiPernapaul@edchoice.org

Additional context…

About the Friedman Foundation

• Established in 1996 by Milton and Rose Friedman

• 501(c)(3) / Non-partisan / Non-profit

• Based in Indianapolis, IN, we work in more than 20 states for any given year.

“Working with local and state partners, we are committed to research, education, and

outreach on the vital issues and implications related to choice and competition in K-12 education.”

Why does Friedman conduct surveys?

• Assessment (national, states)

• Comparison (states, demographics)

• Document (national, states, demographics)

• Awareness & Conversation (states)

Appendix 1

Preferred School Type (2013)

Public School Private School Charter School Home School

% % % %

NATIONAL 34 45 10 7 1,000

School Parent 31 48 7 8 509

Non-Schooler 35 43 11 7 488

Northeast 38 41 12 4 199

South 29 47 8 11 376

Midwest 31 52 10 6 226

West 41 38 12 5 199

Urban 34 50 8 6 174

Suburban 27 46 12 9 355

Small Town 39 41 8 8 261

Rural 38 42 10 7 176

Democrat 41 45 9 3 273

Republican 25 49 10 14 244

Independent 31 47 10 8 288

18 to 34 31 49 9 8 134

35 to 54 27 48 10 8 390

55 & Over 40 40 10 6 425

Under $40,000 35 47 8 7 273

$40,000 to $79,999 35 43 14 6 282

$80,000 & Over 31 48 9 8 299

Hispanic 34 34 20 11 73

Asian 42 40 8 3 20

Black 35 44 14 3 110

White 33 48 8 7 717

Population N =

Brief Findings

• Americans are very negative wrt direction of K-12 education in the country, by more than 2-to-1

• Groups most likely to be negative: South, African Americans, Independents, 55+, Rural

• ND stands out as positive; also KS, MT, AK, AR• NC, ID, WA, IN, ME – least likely “right direction”

• ND, IA, KS, MT – highest ratings• NM, LA, RI, AL – lowest ratings

• ND – greatest positive intensity• LA, NM, AL, RI, NY – greatest negative intensity

What do respondents say about

spending in K-12 education?

Estimates of K-12 Education Spending

Per Student % Saying Correct

Spending Spending Range

ID-11 $7,118 26 32 28 1,202TN-12 $7,992 25 31 28 606WA-12 $9,688 19 21 28 602NM-11 $9,648 13 31 23 808LA-12 $10,625 11 29 26 802IA-13 $9,807 11 47 34 605

ND-13 $10,519 11 45 38 605MT-12 $10,189 11 20 44 604TX-13 $8,788 10 49 27 613RI-13 $13,815 10 52 29 602

NC-12 $8,518 8 26 45 601AK-11 $15,353 7 24 27 1,006ME-13 $12,452 7 56 31 604NJ-10 $17,076 11 30 8 602KS-10 $10,201 10 40 12 602IN-10 $9,254 10 39 18 1,017

MS-10 $8,064 9 47 14 603AR-10 $8,854 9 41 16 603NY-10 $17,746 7 38 13 603AL-10 $9,042 7 51 15 601

Under DK N = Population

Learning about specific K-12 spending information influences public opinion.

Split Sample Experiment on School Funding Views

(A) No Info (B) Given Info Change Change

% Funding Too Low % Funding Too Low Points %

WA-12 56 32 -24 -43 602NM-11 62 41 -21 -34 808RI-13 46 26 -20 -43 602

NC-12 66 50 -16 -24 601AK-11 40 26 -14 -35 1,006TN-12 55 41 -14 -25 606LA-12 57 45 -12 -21 802IA-13 45 34 -11 -24 605

TX-13 52 41 -11 -21 613ID-11 57 47 -10 -18 1,202

ND-13 41 33 -8 -20 605MT-12 43 37 -6 -14 604ME-13 52 50 -2 -4 604

Population N =

Brief Findings

• There is an extremely low-level of knowledge about how much is spent (per student) in public schools.

• National: 14% estimated correct range (DK = 22%)

• States: Roughly 1 in 10 estimated correctly (ID, TN = about 1 in 4 correct; DK = 23% to

45%)

• Experiment shows that inserting a per-student spending statistic changes public opinion.

National: 65% → 44% change = -21 points “too low”

10 out of 13 States decreased by at least 10 points

Appendix 2

Right Direction Wrong Track Diff% % N=

AMERICAN ADULTS 26 62 - 36 1,000

School Mom 32 61 - 29 405Non-Schooler 25 62 - 37 488

REGIONNortheast 32 59 - 27 199South 21 64 - 43 376Midwest 32 60 - 28 226West 24 63 - 39 199

COMMUNITYUrban 34 56 - 22 174Suburban 24 62 - 38 355Small Town 27 60 - 33 261Rural 18 75 - 57 176

PARTY IDDemocrat 28 64 - 36 273Republican 30 62 - 32 244Independent 20 67 - 47 288

AGE GROUP18 to 34 33 45 - 12 13435 to 54 29 62 - 33 39055 & Over 20 72 - 52 425

HOUSEHOLD INCOMEUnder $40,000 28 61 - 33 273$40,000 to $79,999 25 64 - 39 282$80,000 & Over 25 64 - 39 299

RACE/ETHNICITYHispanic 38 49 - 11 73Asian 14 54 - 40 20Black 24 68 - 44 110White 25 64 - 39 717

Q3. In the United States, do you feel things in K-12 education are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have generally gotten off on the wrong track?

Direction of K-12 Education

Right Direction Wrong Track

% %

ND-13 66 19 47 605KS-10 49 38 11 602MT-12 49 38 11 604AK-11 46 39 7 1,006AR-10 46 41 5 603NJ-10 39 39 0 602IA-13 40 46 -6 605

MS-10 41 52 -11 603TN-12 36 50 -14 606LA-12 34 50 -16 802NY-10 36 53 -17 603AL-10 35 53 -18 601NM-11 34 52 -18 808ME-13 31 50 -19 604RI-13 32 52 -20 602IN-10 31 52 -21 1,017

WA-12 31 52 -21 602TX-13 33 55 -22 613ID-11 31 57 -26 1,202

NC-12 29 55 -26 601

Margin N = Population

Brief Findings

• Broad disconnect between private preferences and actual school enrollments.

• Given the choice, a plurality of Americans (45%) would select a private school for their child.

• 31% of current School Parents preferred a public school; nearly half (48%) chose a private school.

• ND, MT, IA – largest public school proportions

• RI, LA, NY, TX – largest private school proportions

• ID stands out wrt charter schools

Appendix 3

Public Schools, Preference vs. Actual

ND-13 60 94 34 601

IA-13 49 93 44 1,006

MT-12 50 95 45 603

NJ-10 40 86 46 1,202

MS-10 43 91 48 1,017

KS-10 40 91 51 605

LA-12 31 82 51 602

TN-12 40 92 52 802

AL-10 38 91 53 604

NC-12 34 87 53 603

WA-12 40 93 53 604

ID-11 38 92 54 602

IN-10 38 92 54 808

ME-13 36 90 54 603

AK-11 39 94 55 601

AR-10 37 92 55 605

NM-11 37 92 55 602

NY-10 29 85 56 606

RI-13 29 85 56 613

TX-13 34 93 59 602

Population N = Preference % Actual % Gap

Private Schools, Preference vs. Actual

ND-13 28 6 -22 605

ID-11 27 4 -23 1,202

MT-12 28 5 -23 604

AR-10 33 7 -26 603

NJ-10 39 13 -26 602

AK-11 30 3 -27 1,006

KS-10 35 8 -27 602

WA-12 35 7 -28 602

MS-10 38 9 -29 603

AL-10 40 9 -31 601

IA-13 38 7 -31 605

NM-11 36 5 -31 808

IN-10 41 8 -33 1,017

NC-12 39 6 -33 601

TN-12 40 7 -33 606

ME-13 42 8 -34 604

LA-12 49 14 -35 802

NY-10 49 14 -35 603

RI-13 54 12 -42 602

TX-13 47 4 -43 613

Population N = Preference % Actual % Gap

Charter Schools, Preference vs. Actual

IA-13 5 0 -5 605

ND-13 5 0 -5 605

TX-13 8 3 -5 613

LA-12 10 4 -6 802

RI-13 10 3 -7 602

MS-10 8 0 -8 603

AL-10 8 0 -8 601

IN-10 10 2 -8 1,017

TN-12 9 0 -9 606

ME-13 9 0 -9 604

MT-12 9 0 -9 604

AK-11 15 4 -11 1,006

AR-10 12 1 -11 603

NJ-10 12 1 -11 602

KS-10 13 1 -12 602

NM-11 15 3 -12 808

NC-12 15 3 -12 601

NY-10 14 1 -13 603

WA-12 14 0 -14 602

ID-11 22 5 -17 1,202

N = Population Preference % Actual % Gap

Appendix 4

Brief Findings• Without definition or context, 43% of Americans

favor school vouchers, vs. 28% oppose (DK = 30%)

• Given a definition, support jumps to 60%, opposition jumps to 32% (DK = 8%)

• MOST likely to support: School Parents, < $40K, Small Town, African Americans, 18 to 34

• LEAST likely to support: West, Democrats, 55+, Suburban, High Income, ≥ $80K

• MOST supportive states: MSi, NJ, INi, NYi, TX• LEAST supportive states: MT, IA, ME, WA, ID • Dem Range: 56 (MS) ↔ 22 (AK, ND) ↔ -28 (MT) • GOP Range: 62 (NJ) ↔ 21 (TX), 20 (AR) ↔ 25

(ID) • Ind Range: 65 (NY) ↔ 27 (WA) ↔ 10 (ND)

National surveys to look for every year…

February MetLife Survey/Harris

May Friedman Foundation/Braun Research

August AP/NORC Center

Education Next-PEPG/KN

PDK/Gallup

National surveys asking school voucher questions

Terry Moe (1995/2001)

• Low awareness and information ( ~ 2:1)• National, 60% vs. 32% = + 28 • Parents, 68% vs. 24% = + 44• African Americans, 73% vs. 18% = + 55• Latinos, 71% vs. 18% = + 53

Public Agenda (1999)

• National, 57% vs. 36% = + 21 Intensity = 29% vs. 23% = + 6

• Parents, 68% vs. 27% = + 41Intensity = 40% vs. 17% = + 23

PDK/Gallup (1970 to 2013)

“Do you favor or oppose allowing students and parents to choose a private school to attend at public expense?”

EdNext-PEPG/KN (2007 to 2013)

“A proposal has been made that would use government funds to pay the tuition of low-income students who choose to attend private schools. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?”

PDK/Gallup (1970 to 2013)Public Support for [Vouchers]

EdNext-PEPG/KN (2007 to 2013)Public Support for Low-Income Vouchers

Question wording varies from sponsor to sponsor…

Moe’s recommendations for item construction (p. 200)

• Vouchers would be available to parents generally, not just to existing private school parents

• Vouchers would enable parents to choose among public, parochial, and private options in deciding where their children go to school

• Vouchers would be financed by the government and thus paid for out of taxes

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?

A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?