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    2013 | NAHB

    LEGISLATIVECONFERENCE

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    HousingOutlook

    HOUSING BEGAN A SUSTAINED RECOVERY IN 2012

    that has formed a solid basis for continued modest

    growth in the face of several head winds that will

    keep the industry from full take off. Housing starts in 2012

    were 28 percent better than 2011 and early 2013 activity is

    following a similar pace. As a result of the housing pickup,

    construction jobs have increased at a much faster pace

    than overall employment and the housing component of

    overall economic activity is advancing at four or ve times

    the pace of the economy.

    Economic growth will pause in 2013 as the effects of

    higher taxes and lower government spending spreads

    across the economy. NAHB forecasts a 1.9 percent GDP

    growth in 2013 followed by a more robust 2.6 percent

    in 2014 as the scal drag effects are absorbed and the

    underlying private economy recovers. Housing will suffer

    less than other sectors from the slowdown because pentup demand will amplify demand.

    Household formations dropped signicantly during the

    recession from an average of 1.4 million net additions

    each year to 500,000 during the recession. Formations

    picked up beginning in 2011 but remain below underlying

    demographic expectations. NAHB estimates a shortfall

    of 2 million households yet to form from the underlying

    population that has up to this point remained in parentshomes. As the economy and job formations grow, normal

    life cycle trends will spawn these pent up households.

    Other positive housing inuences include extremely low

    mortgage rates and rising home prices. Mortgage rates are

    expected to remain low, although some increase will begin

    as the economy expands in 2014 and more sectors demand

    capital. Home price increases are a double-edged sword

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    but overall, have had a benecial effect. While higher prices

    reduce affordability for rst time home buyers, increasing

    home prices provide more equity to current home owners,

    which is especially important for home owners with little

    or negative equity. Consistently rising prices over the last

    year provide condence to home buyers that they will not

    lose money if they purchase. That effect has been very

    important in the recent rising demand and will continue tobe true over the next year. NAHB forecasts home prices

    will rise 7.4 percent in 2013 and 4.5 percent in 2014 as

    supply begins to catch up with demand.

    Even with these advantages, housing production remains

    at about 60 percent of normal output. Housing starts in

    the rst quarter of 2013 were 969,000 but should be 1.7

    million if underlying demographic demand were back to

    normal. The postponed and slower-than-normal recoverycan be blamed on a whole series of head winds. Leading

    the reasons for limited growth is tight credit for both the

    builder and buyer. Partly due to the unknown and expansive

    regulations affecting mortgage originators and investors,

    credit standards are much tighter than they were during

    more normal periods in the early 2000s. Current lend-

    ing thresholds reduce the number of eligible borrowers,

    which is already reduced by current home owners withlittle or no equity.

    Builders borrow from community banks in the markets

    where they build. But national regulators and local bank

    examiners have kept a lid on lending to residential real estate

    so builders have not been able to expand their inventory.

    The number of new homes for sale has remained at historic

    lows for over a year as builders struggle to get sufcient

    capital to buy land, install infrastructure and build homes.

    Other sectors of the home building industry are also

    struggling to rebuild their supply chain as the industry

    begins to recover. Some building material prices have

    skyrocketed in the past year as capacity for items such

    as lumber, wood panels and wallboard are re-established.

    Labor costs are likely to increase as construction workers

    left the industry when housing starts dropped 80 percent

    from peak to trough.

    The net effect of positive demographic, interest rate

    and home price tail winds against the head winds of credit

    availability and rising prices and/or scarcity for materials,

    workers and lots will allow housing starts to increase to

    1 million in 2013 and 1.2 million in 2014. Full recovery at

    1.7 million starts is several years away as the economyand jobs grow back to normal and the head winds calm.

    NAHB Economics Contact

    Dr. David Crowe

    Chief Economist

    (800) 368-5242, ext. 8383 or

    (202) 266-8383

    Email: [email protected]

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    Tax Reform

    CONGRESS HAS BEGUN DISCUSSING POSSIBLE

    changes to the tax code. In doing so, it is essential

    that Congress take the right approach to foster eco-

    nomic growth. It is critical for future economic prosperitythat Congress not harm job creation and recovery in the

    construction industry.

    Mortgage Interest Deduction

    The mortgage interest deduction (MID) has been part

    of the tax code since its inception in 1913 and is the

    cornerstone of American housing policy. Home owners

    may deduct interest from up to $1 million of acquisition

    mortgage debt and up to $100,000 of home equity loan

    debt. These amounts were set in 1987 and have not been

    adjusted for ination.

    There are many misperceptions regarding this deduc-

    tion, including who benets. In reality, the deduction is a

    middle-class tax break and is particularly benecial for

    younger households and larger families. Two-thirds of the

    benets of the mortgage interest deduction are claimed

    by those earning less than $200,000. Yet these same

    taxpayers pay only 40 percent of all income taxes, meaning

    these deductions make the tax code more progressive

    and fair. As a share of household income, the deduction

    primarily benets those aged 18 to 35, as well as larger

    families. The vast majority of home owners benet from

    the mortgage interest deduction; in any given year, 70%

    of home owners with a mortgage will claim the deduction.

    Second Homes

    Perhaps the least understood component of the mortgage

    interest deduction is the allowance to deduct interest on

    a second home. In fact, many home owners have owned

    a second home without realizing it. For example, when

    a home owner sells one home and purchases another,

    effectively owning two separate principal residences in a

    given tax year. Further, the second home MID rules allow

    up to 24 months of construction loan interest on a newly-

    constructed home to be claimed while the family resides

    in their existing principal residence.

    Second homes may conjure up images of expensive

    beach homes (although such homes are more likely to be

    rented out, in which case the owner does not claim the

    mortgage interest deduction, or are owned free-and-clear),

    but second homeownership is much more diverse. Everystate, except for Connecticut, has at least one county with

    10 percent or more of its housing stock as second homes.

    Low Income Housing Tax Credit

    The tax code also contains numerous provisions to support

    rental housing. One of the most uniqueand effective

    provisions is the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC).

    Created as part of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the LIHTC

    promotes public-private partnerships to produce afford-

    able rental housing. The LIHTC allows private equity to be

    raised at a lower cost, which makes it possible to operate

    these projects successfully with below-market rents. In

    general, the LIHTC serves households earning 60 percent

    or less of the area median income. Because compliance is

    monitored by the state housing nance agencies as well

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    as the investors, LIHTC projects have a foreclosure rate

    that is one-third of other multifamily properties.

    The LIHTC is currently producing approximately 75,000

    new apartment homes annually, and since its inception,

    the LIHTC has produced more than 2 million affordable

    rental units. Despite its success, this is not sufcient to

    replace the number of affordable apartments lost each year.

    Even in this tough economic climate, the LIHTC cre-

    ates 95,000 new full time jobs per year across all U.S.

    industriesgenerating $2 billion in federal tax revenue.

    No other housing program has been as successful as the

    LIHTC in producing safe, quality, affordable rental housing.

    Solutions

    Recently, several scal commissions have suggested re-

    ducing or eliminating the mortgage interest deduction;

    the capital gains exclusion; the Low Income Housing Tax

    Credit; and the deduction of property taxes, amongst oth-

    ers. These proposed tax increases would further depress

    home prices; put countless more home owners underwater;

    and trigger a new wave of foreclosures. Eliminating or

    scaling back these vital housing incentives will also shrink

    the local tax base of many communities, causing already

    cash-strapped state and local governments to further cut

    jobs and essential services. Raising taxes on home owners

    and homebuilders is just not sound public policy.

    R E COMMEND A T I O N S

    Oppose any changes to the tax code that would

    increase taxes on home owners, renters, or home

    builders;

    Co-sponsor H. Con. Res. 4, introduced by

    Representative Gary Miller, expressing the senseof Congress that the mortgage interest deduction

    should not be further restricted.

    NAHB Government Affairs Contact

    JP Delmore

    Assistant Vice President, Government Affairs

    (800) 368-5242, Ext. 8412 or (202) 266-8412

    Email: [email protected]

    ImmigrationReform

    T

    HE IMMIGRATION DEBATE HAS HEATED UP AGAIN

    in the 113th Congress, with both the House andSenate set to consider legislation in the second half

    of the year. As lawmakers work to craft compromise legisla-

    tion, these proposed changes will have a direct impact on

    businesses, even if they do not use immigrant labor. It is

    therefore vitally important that Congress understand the

    need for a fair and workable employer verication system

    and a set of visa programs that appropriately reects the

    needs of the construction industry.

    Employment Verication

    Congress is considering a nationwide expansion of the

    electronic employment verication system (E-Verify) to

    ensurethat employersonly hire individuals authorized to

    work in the United States. NAHB believes that the system

    must be fair, efcient, and not impose signicant burdens

    on employers. A workable system will:1.Maintain current law, holding every U.S. employer ac-

    countable only for the identity and work authorization

    status of their direct employees. Congress should not

    require employers to verify someone elses workers

    such as a subcontractors employeesas this is both

    unfair and impracticable.

    2.Maintain the current liability standards to ensure employersunderstand their level of compliance. Employers who

    knowingly hire undocumented workers will continue

    to be held accountable.

    3.Make sure that any compulsory federal E-Verify program

    contains a robust safe harbor for employers so that

    those who use the system in good faith will not be held

    liable for errors in the E-Verify system.

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    4. Include a strong preemption clause, preventing state

    and local governments from creating their own versions

    of verication requirements for employers. This is es-

    sential for any business that operates in multiple states.

    5.Allow employers to begin the E-Verify process when

    a worker accepts a position, rather than be required

    to wait until after their start date.

    6. Permit the system to provide telephone access as well

    as Internet access, which will make the system more

    workable for small employers.

    Labor Shortages

    The home building industry, with the contribution of a

    substantial immigrant workforce, plays a critical role in

    sustaining the national economy and meeting the nations

    housing needs. Today, foreign-born workers account for

    22 percent of the construction labor force nationally.

    The inow of foreign-born labor into construction is cyclical

    and coincides with overall housing activity. Their share was

    rising rapidly during the housing boom years when labor

    shortages were widespread and serious. However, even

    during the severe housing downturn and a period of high

    unemployment, the construction labor force continued to

    recruit new immigrants to replace native and foreign-born

    workers leaving the industry.

    The improvement in housing markets over the last year

    has been a welcome change for the economy. NAHB is

    anticipating total housing starts of 1 million this year and

    1.2 million in 2014 as the market continues its gradual

    rebound. However, this turnaround presents new labor

    challenges for the construction industry.The January and March 2013 NAHB/Wells Fargo

    Housing Market Index (HMI) surveys, which gauge sales

    conditions from builders across the county, indicate that

    labor shortages are quickly rising on home builders list of

    most signicant problems. Forty-six percent of the builders

    surveyed experienced delays in completing projects on

    time. Fifteen percent of respondents had to turn down

    some projects, and nine percent lost or cancelled sales

    as a result of recent labor shortages. Trades with a high

    concentration of immigrant workers also tend to have

    more vacancies and labor shortages.

    NAHB strongly believes that the nation should imple-

    ment a new market-based visa system that would allow

    more immigrants to legally enter the construction workforce

    each year. Despite efforts to recruit and train Americanworkers, the housing industry faces a very real impediment

    to full recovery if work is delayed or even cancelled due to

    worker shortages. A new, workable visa program would

    complement the industrys skills training efforts within the

    nations borders and ll the labor gaps needed to meet

    the nations housing needs.

    R E COMMEND A T I O N S

    Support comprehensive immigration reform that

    includes a fair and workable employer verication

    system and a market-based visa program that

    allows the residential construction industry to fully

    participate in the program.

    Oppose any attempt to require home builders

    to verify the work authorization status of their

    subcontractors or subcontractors workers. As

    with current law, employers who knowingly use

    subcontract labor that violates immigration laws

    will continue to be held accountable.

    NAHB Government Affairs Contact

    Suzanne Beall

    Federal Legislative Director(800) 368-5242, Ext. 8407 or

    (202) 266-8407

    Email: [email protected]

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    HousingFinanceReform

    Background

    TH E H OU S I N G GOV E R N M E N T SPON SOR E D

    enterprises (GSEs)Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and

    the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBanks)have

    been, and remain, critical components of the U.S. hous-

    ing nance system. They were created by Congress tosupport mortgage market liquidity and help address af-

    fordable housing needs.

    The GSEs have operated with implicit government

    backing that allows them to raise funds at favorable

    rates, which ultimately benets mortgage borrowers.

    The housing GSE system functioned well for decades,

    but the past few years have seen unprecedented turmoil.

    Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were found to have serious

    accounting irregularities that required them to be placed

    under government conservatorship and receive direct

    federal support. The FHLBanks have not experienced

    these difculties and continue to operate outside of direct

    government control.

    The regulatory system for the GSEs underwent a complete

    overhaul during this period, with all GSEs now under the

    oversight of a single regulator, the Federal Housing Finance

    Agency (FHFA). As the conservator for Fannie Mae and

    Freddie Mac, FHFA is trying to balance the signicant role

    that Fannie and Freddie have played during the housing

    downturn by supporting mortgage markets and mitigating

    mortgage foreclosures, while reducing taxpayer losses

    and minimizing future risk exposure.

    One thing is clear: the status quo cannot be maintained.

    Serious policy discussions are underway regarding the

    future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following the cur-

    rent, still-indenite conservatorship period, and what, if

    anything, should change in the structure and operation

    of the FHLBanks. A key consideration is the transition

    from the current structure to a future arrangement with-

    out undermining ongoing nancial stabilization efforts and

    disrupting the operation of the housing nance system.

    Solutions

    NAHB believes that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should

    not be converted to government agencies, nor should their

    functions be completely turned over to the private market.

    While major structural and operational changes are needed,

    NAHB believes it is crucial for the federal government to

    continue to provide a backstop for the housing nancesystem to ensure a reliable and adequate ow of affordable

    housing credit in all economic and nancial conditions.

    The need for government support is underscored by the

    current state of the housing nance system, where Fannie

    Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHLBanks, the Federal Housing

    Administration and Ginnie Mae are the only conduits for

    residential mortgage credit. The federal backstop must be

    a permanent xture in order to ensure a consistent supply

    of mortgage liquidity, as well as allow for rapid and effective

    responses to market dislocations and crises.

    NAHB has provided a plan to Congress where the

    federal government would only be called upon when the

    capital and self-funded insurance resources of newly cre-

    ated private secondary market entities are exhausted.

    NAHB supports comprehensive GSE reform legislation thatprotects the American taxpayer while ensuring a safe and

    sound means of providing a reliable ow of housing credit.

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    R E COMMEND A T I O N S

    Pass comprehensive GSE reform legislation that

    ensures the federal government continues to

    provide a backstop for a reliable and adequate

    ow of affordable housing credit in all economic

    and nancial conditions.

    I While NAHB agrees that private capital mustbe the dominant source of mortgage credit, the

    future housing nance system cannot be left

    entirely to the private sector.

    I The historical track record clearly shows thatthe private sector is not capable of providing

    a consistent and adequate supply of housing

    credit without a government backstop.

    I Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should begradually phased into a private-sector-oriented

    system, where the federal governments

    backing is explicit but its exposure is limited.

    I Federal support should be limited tocatastrophic situations where carefully

    calibrated levels of private capital and

    insurance reserves are depleted before anytaxpayer funds are employed to shore up the

    mortgage market.

    I NAHB believes federal support is particularlyimportant in continuing the availability of the

    30-yearxed-rate mortgage, which has been a

    staple of the U.S. housing nance system since

    the 1930s.

    NAHB Government Affairs Contact

    Scott C. Meyer

    Assistant Vice President, Government Affairs

    (800) 368-5242, Ext. 8144 or

    (202) 266-8144

    Email: [email protected]

    Addressingthe HousingProduction

    Credit Crisis

    Background

    T

    HE HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO

    experience a signicant adverse shift in terms andavailability on land acquisition, land development

    and home construction (AD&C) loans and builders with

    outstanding loans are facing mounting challenges. Lend-

    ers are refusing to extend new AD&C credit or to modify

    outstanding AD&C loans in order to provide more time to

    complete projects and pay off loans. Lenders themselves

    often cite regulatory requirements or examiner pressure on

    banks to shrink their AD&C loan portfolios as reasons fortheir actions. While federal bank regulators maintain that

    they are not encouraging institutions to stop making loans

    or to indiscriminately liquidate outstanding loans, reports

    from NAHB members in a number of different geographies

    suggest that bank examiners in the eld have adopted a

    signicantly more aggressive posture.

    As a result of this regulatory pressure, the home building

    industry is having extreme difculty in obtaining credit for

    viable projects. Builders with outstanding construction and

    development loans are experiencing intense pressure as

    the result of requirements for signicant additional equity,

    denials on loan extensions, and demands for immediate

    repayment. In short, the credit window seems to have been

    slammed shut for builders all over the country.

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    Solutions

    NAHB has presented banking regulators with specic in-

    stances of credit restrictions, provided data showing no

    difference in credit access across market conditions; and

    requested specic changes to current regulatory guidance.

    To date, these efforts have not produced any tangible

    results. With the spigot for housing production loans cut

    off, it is clear that congressional action is needed to helpopen the ow of credit to home builders. Without such

    action, there can be no housing recovery, which has major

    implications for our nations ability to recover from the

    current economic downturn.

    With the introduction of legislation to address the regu-

    latory barriers to construction lending, the prole of this

    lending crisis has been raised signicantly in Congress. In

    fact, in the last Congress, NAHB supported legislation toaddress this issue that ultimately garnered the support of

    113 bipartisan members in the House of Representatives

    and 8 Senators. The legislation has been reintroduced once

    again to continue the momentum gained during the last

    congressional session. Moving forward, NAHB will push

    once again for the passage of the Home Construction

    Lending Regulatory Improvement Act, H.R. 1255, intro-

    duced by Representative Gary Miller (R-CA) and CarolynMcCarthy (D-NY), and S. 1002, the Home Building Lending

    Improvement Act of 2013, introduced by Senator Robert

    Menendez (D-NJ) and Johnny Isakson (R-GA).

    The momentum generated by these two bills, is now

    the basis for new bipartisan legislation before Congress to

    tackle the issue of overly restrictive bank examiner regula-

    tion. H.R. 1553, the Financial Institutions Examination Fair-

    ness and Reform Actintroduced by Financial Institutions

    Subcommittee Chairman Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) and

    Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), as well as S. 727

    introduced in the Senate by Banking Committee members

    Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), would provide

    new standards for bank examinations. Of particular note

    to the home building industry, such new standards would

    specify that a commercial loan (including AD&C loans) cannot

    be placed in nonaccrual status solely because the collateral

    has deteriorated in value. Additionally, the legislation would

    clarify that a new appraisal is not required on a commercial

    loan unless an advance of new funds is involved. NAHB

    strongly supports H.R. 1553 and S. 727 and as this legislation

    moves forward in Congress, we will advocate for additional

    elements of our credit crisis reform legislative agenda to beincorporated to strengthen the overall bill.

    R E COMMEND A T I O N S

    Members of the House of Representatives:

    Cosponsor H.R. 1255, theHome Construction

    Lending Regulatory Improvement Act, introduced

    by Representatives Gary Miller of CA and Carolyn

    McCarthy of NY.

    I H.R. 1255 directs the banking regulators toissue new guidance in three key areas:

    1.Cease implementing a 100 percent capital

    bank lending limit for AD&C loans as a hard

    limit, and utilize the 100 percent capital guid-

    ance as it was intended;

    2.Use as-completed values when assessing

    the collateral of residential AD&C loans they

    intend to fund to completion and use arms

    length transactions standards when assess-

    ing new loans;

    3.Abstain from compelling a lender to call or

    curtail AD&C loans where the home builder

    is current in making payments in accordancewith the loan documents.

    Members of the Senate:

    Cosponsor S. 1002, theHome Building Lending

    Improvement Act of 2013, introduced by Senator

    Robert Menendez of NJ and Johnny Isakson of

    GA.

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    I S. 1002 directs the banking regulators to issuenew guidance in two key areas:

    1.Change the 100 percent capital bank lending

    threshold that triggers additional scrutiny

    for construction loans to 125 percent and

    clarify that if a bank exceeds that threshold,

    it should not be treated as a hard cap on

    further construction lending, but a multi-fac-

    tor analysis of the banks portfolio and risk

    management;

    2.Abstain from compelling a lender to call

    construction loans where the home builder

    is currently making payments and provides

    for a work out period before charging off a

    loan.

    NAHB Government Affairs Contact

    Scott C. Meyer

    Assistant Vice President, Government Affairs

    (800) 368-5242, ext. 8144 or

    (202) 266-8144

    Email: [email protected]

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