2013 Investor Conference2013 Investor Conference · 2013. 7. 15. · 2013 Investor Conference2013...
Transcript of 2013 Investor Conference2013 Investor Conference · 2013. 7. 15. · 2013 Investor Conference2013...
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2013 Investor Conference2013 Investor Conference2013 Investor Conference2013 Investor ConferenceEmerson OverviewEmerson OverviewDavid N. FarrDavid N. Farr
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
February 11 2013February 11, 2013Safe Harbor Statement
Our commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements, including our outlook for the remainder of the year and Emerson undertakes no
Non-GAAP Measures
the remainder of the year and Emerson undertakes no obligation to update any such statement to reflect later developments. Information on factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from those discussed today is available in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports as filed with the SEC.
Non GAAP Measures
In this presentation we will discuss some non-GAAP measures (denoted with an *) in talking about our company’s performance, and the reconciliation of those measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is contained within this presentation or is available at our website www.emerson.comunder the investor relations tab.
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Investor Conference Investor Conference –– AgendaAgendaMonday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Investor Conference Investor Conference –– AgendaAgendaMonday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Monday, February 11, 2013Time Title Presenter
3:00 – 5:00pm Emerson Overview D. N. Farr
5:00 – 5:45pm Network Power Systems Overview D. S. Barbour
5:45 – 6:15pm Q&A
6 15 6 45 C kt il6:15 – 6:45pm Cocktails
6:45pm Dinner
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Investor Conference Investor Conference –– AgendaAgendaTuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013Investor Conference Investor Conference –– AgendaAgendaTuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013Tuesday, February 12, 2013
7:00AM - 8:00AM BREAKFASTGROUP A GROUP B
8:00AM - 8:30AMTravel to Delaware
Depart for Learning Center8:30AM - 9:00AM Global Service Overview
Group A1 Group A2 Group B1 Group B29:00AM - 9:15AM
DCIM Lab Technology/FWTMonitoring Center Training Floor
9:15AM - 9:30AM Training Floor Monitoring Center9:30AM - 10:00AM Technology/FWT DCIM Lab
Travel to Delaware10 00AM 10 30AM10:00AM - 10:30AM
Travel to Learning Center Group B1 Group B210:30AM - 11:00AM DCIM Lab Technology/FWT11:00AM - 11:30AM Global Service Overview11:00AM - 11:30AM Global Service Overview
Technology/FWT DCIM LabGroup A1 Group A2
11:30AM - 11:45AM Monitoring Center Training FloorTravel to Hotel11:45AM - 12:00PM Training Floor Monitoring Centerg g
12:00PM – 12:30PM Travel to Hotel12:30PM – 1:30PM LUNCH
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Investor ConferenceInvestor Conference –– Emerson AttendeesEmerson AttendeesInvestor ConferenceInvestor Conference –– Emerson AttendeesEmerson AttendeesInvestor Conference Investor Conference Emerson AttendeesEmerson AttendeesInvestor Conference Investor Conference Emerson AttendeesEmerson AttendeesCorporate
David Farr Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerCraig Ashmore Executive Vice President – Planning and DevelopmentFrank Dellaquila Executive Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerEd Monser President and Chief Operating OfficerCharlie Peters Senior Executive Vice PresidentKathy Button Bell Vice President and Chief Marketing OfficerPat Fitzgerald Director – Investor RelationsLal Karsanbhai Vice President – Planning
Network Power SystemsScott Barbour Executive Vice PresidentScott Barbour Executive Vice PresidentFrank Bibens President – Global ServicesSteve Hassell President – AvocentL M i Vi P id t Pl i d D l t
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Lynne Maxeiner Vice President – Planning and DevelopmentChuck Spears President Network Power Sales AmericasArmand Visioli President – ASCO Power Technologies
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Emerson Experienced a Strong Start to Fiscal Emerson Experienced a Strong Start to Fiscal 20132013Emerson Experienced a Strong Start to Fiscal Emerson Experienced a Strong Start to Fiscal 201320132013201320132013
Q1 2012 Q1 2013Q1 2013 vs.
Q1 2012Sales $5.3B $5.6B 4.6%
GP Margin 38.7% 39.7% +1.0 pts
5.6% Underlying Sales Growth*
OP Margin* 13.2% 14.6% +1.4 pts
EBIT* $611 $727 19.1%
% f S l * 11 5% 13 1% +1 6 t% of Sales* 11.5% 13.1% +1.6 pts
Operating Cash Flow $334M $554M 65.7%
Free Cash Flow* $204M $439M 114.7%Free Cash Flow $204M $439M 114.7%
EPS $0.50 $0.62 24.0%
DPS $0.40 $0.41 2.5%
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Emerson Had a Very Strong First Quarter in 2013, Which Will Help Us to Achieve Our Fiscal Year Targets
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Underlying Orders TrendsUnderlying Orders TrendsTrailing 3Trailing 3--Month Average vs. Prior YearMonth Average vs. Prior YearUnderlying Orders TrendsUnderlying Orders TrendsTrailing 3Trailing 3--Month Average vs. Prior YearMonth Average vs. Prior YearTrailing 3Trailing 3 Month Average vs. Prior YearMonth Average vs. Prior YearTrailing 3Trailing 3 Month Average vs. Prior YearMonth Average vs. Prior Year
This slide has been omitted
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Fiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial Expectations
Operational Performance 2013E DeltaPerformance
20122013E Delta
Sales $24.4B $25.0 - $25.6B 2% - 5%
GP Margin 40.0% ~40.5% ~50 bps
^
GP Margin 40.0% 40.5% 50 bps
OP Margin* 17.7% 17.8% - 17.9% 10-20 bps
EBIT* $3.9B ~$4.1B ~5%
% of Sales* 16.1% 16.2% - 16.3% 10-20 bps
Operating Cash Flow $3.1B ~$3.35B ~9%
Free Cash Flow* $2.4B ~$2.65B ~10%
EPS $3.39 $3.53-$3.63 4% - 7%
ROTC 19.4% ~20% ~60 bps
8^Operational Performance*: Excluding goodwill impairment of $592M pretax or $0.72 per share in 2012
Remember: We Still Expect 70-80% of 2013 EPS Growth in the First Half
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2013 Outlook2013 Outlook –– Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook2013 Outlook –– Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook 2013 Outlook Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook 2013 Outlook Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value● Global Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) is Forecasted to Grow
Only 3-5% in 2013, but this could be optimistic● This will lead to a 2-5% Underlying Sales* Growth in 2013,
with minimal acquisitions in plan● Positive order trends suggest several of our businesses –gg
Process Management, Climate Technologies, Commercial & Residential Solutions – Should Experience Solid Underlying Growth
● Another Record Year for Profit Margins is expected – as we expect all time highs in Gross and Operating Profit Margins
● Significant Cash Flow Improvement is expected to occur –● Significant Cash Flow Improvement is expected to occur producing an incremental gain of $200-$300M in Free Cash Flow*, after a weak Fiscal 2012
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Underlying Global Economics Have Underlying Global Economics Have Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets of Growth Still Existof Growth Still Exist
Underlying Global Economics Have Underlying Global Economics Have Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets of Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Exist
GFI % Change GFI 2012/13E2010/2011 2011/2012 GFI 2013E $ Real Growth
United States 3.0% 6.1% $2.6T 3-5%R id ti l (3 8%) 9 3% $0 5T 13 15%Residential (3.8%) 9.3% $0.5T 13-15%Non-Residential (8.0%) 9.2% $1.7T 2-4%
Western Europe 1.6% (1.7%) $2.8T (2%)-(1%)Australia / New Zealand 5.1% 8.6% $0.5T 4-6%Japan 0.3% 5.7% $1.3T 1-2%Canada 6.6% 3.1% $0.4T 2-4%Mature Markets 2.2% 2.7% $7.6T 1-3%
Emerging Asia 7.5% 5.9% $5.8T 4-6%China 9.5% 7.5% $3.9T 5-7%India 5.5% 3.4% $0.6T 3-5%
Eastern Europe / Russia 9 8% 4 3% $1 1T 2 3%Eastern Europe / Russia 9.8% 4.3% $1.1T 2-3%Latin America 10.1% 3.6% $1.2T 4-5%Middle East and Africa 6.8% 5.5% $0.5T 2-4%Emerging Markets 8.2% 5.3% $8.6T 3-5%
10Source: IHS Global Insight and Emerson assessment 10
World GFI GrowthEmerson Underlying Sales* Growth
4.7%11%
3.8%3%
3-5%2-5%
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United StatesUnited States Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentUnited StatesUnited States Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentUnited StatesUnited States Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentUnited StatesUnited States Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed Investment
14%
16%2012 2013E
Non-Residential GFI
10%
12%
14%Residential GFI
o es de t a GResidential GFI: 13% - 15%
4%
6%
8%
Non Residential GFI: 2% 4%
0%
2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Non-Residential GFI: 2% - 4%
Residential GFI 9.3% 13-15%Non-residential GFI 9.2% 2-4%Total US GFI 6.1% 3-5%
11Source: IHS Global Insight
United States Residential Market Is Expected to Be Stronger in 2013 and Non-Residential Markets Will be Weaker
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Underlying Global Economics Have Underlying Global Economics Have Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets of Growth Still Existof Growth Still Exist
Underlying Global Economics Have Underlying Global Economics Have Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets Softened in 2012/2013 But Solid Pockets of Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Existof Growth Still Exist
GFI % Change GFI 2012/13E2010/2011 2011/2012 GFI 2013E $ Real Growth
United States 3.0% 6.1% $2.6T 3-5%R id ti l (3 8%) 9 3% $0 5T 13 15%Residential (3.8%) 9.3% $0.5T 13-15%Non-Residential (8.0%) 9.2% $1.7T 2-4%
Western Europe 1.6% (1.7%) $2.8T (2%)-(1%)Australia / New Zealand 5.1% 8.6% $0.5T 4-6%Japan 0.3% 5.7% $1.3T 1-2%Canada 6.6% 3.1% $0.4T 2-4%Mature Markets 2.2% 2.7% $7.6T 1-3%
Emerging Asia 7.5% 5.9% $5.8T 4-6%China 9.5% 7.5% $3.9T 5-7%India 5.5% 3.4% $0.6T 3-5%
Eastern Europe / Russia 9 8% 4 3% $1 1T 2 3%Eastern Europe / Russia 9.8% 4.3% $1.1T 2-3%Latin America 10.1% 3.6% $1.2T 4-5%Middle East and Africa 6.8% 5.5% $0.5T 2-4%Emerging Markets 8.2% 5.3% $8.6T 3-5%
Source: IHS Global Insight and Emerson assessment
World GFI GrowthEmerson Underlying Sales* Growth
4.7%11%
3.8%3%
3-5%2-5%
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Western EuropeWestern Europe Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentWestern EuropeWestern Europe Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentWestern EuropeWestern Europe Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed InvestmentWestern EuropeWestern Europe Gross Fixed InvestmentGross Fixed Investment
4%2012 2013E
2%
-2%
0%
(2%) – (1%)
-4%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Western Europe GFI (1.7%) (2%) – (1%)
Source: IHS Global Insight
Western Europe Will Continue to Struggle in 2013, But Slight Improvements are Starting to Show Up
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The Global Material Inflation Trends and The Global Material Inflation Trends and Emerson’s ActionsEmerson’s Actions –– Expect to Be Green in 2013Expect to Be Green in 2013The Global Material Inflation Trends and The Global Material Inflation Trends and Emerson’s ActionsEmerson’s Actions –– Expect to Be Green in 2013Expect to Be Green in 2013
3%
4% Price %Net Material Inflation %
Emerson s Actions Emerson s Actions Expect to Be Green in 2013 Expect to Be Green in 2013 Emerson s Actions Emerson s Actions Expect to Be Green in 2013 Expect to Be Green in 2013 Emerson Net Material Inflation vs. Price
?
1%
2%
Flat to (0 5%)
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?
(1%)
0% (0.5%)
(4%)
(3%)
(2%)
Deflation Period
(1.5%) to (2.0%)
Deflation Period
∆Price & NMI
(4%)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F 2015F
Period
Neutral
Period
We Will See Flat to Slightly Down Price in Fiscal 2013, and the Net Material Inflation will be Negative (1.5%) to (2.0%). However, We are Concerned
That Inflation Could Start to Emerge in Late 2013 or Early 201414
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During Significant Deflation Points of Inflection, During Significant Deflation Points of Inflection, it is Normally a Challenge to Remain Net Green it is Normally a Challenge to Remain Net Green (Price vs. Material Inflation)(Price vs. Material Inflation)
During Significant Deflation Points of Inflection, During Significant Deflation Points of Inflection, it is Normally a Challenge to Remain Net Green it is Normally a Challenge to Remain Net Green (Price vs. Material Inflation)(Price vs. Material Inflation)(Price vs. Material Inflation) (Price vs. Material Inflation) (Price vs. Material Inflation) (Price vs. Material Inflation)
20%
World Producer Price Index (PPI) Year-over-Year Change
10%
15% Inflection Point?
5%
10%
-5%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42010 2011 2012 2013E
PPI 6.3% 11.1% (0.2%) 1.2% 1.5% - 2.5% 3.0% - 5.0%
2014F 2015F
Price Cost Deflation Will Put Price Pressure on Emerson in 2013 Versus 2011 and 2012
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Creating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidShare
RepurchaseProfit
Growth
ROTCEBIT Margin
14 - 18+%Drives EPS
$5BAcquisitions
ROTCTarget 15 - 25%
14 - 18+%OP Margin15 - 19+%
EPS 10 - 13% CAGR
Operating Capital Efficiency• Trade Working Capital –
Underlying Sales
Growth
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Historical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth TrendsHistorical Gross Fixed Investment Growth Trends
GFI Growth
Periods with HighGrowth Rates
8%
10%
Average GFI Growth: 5.2%
Average GFI Growth: 6.4%
6%
8%
“Slower Global Recovery”
2012-2015F CAGR: 3-5%
RecessionAverage: 3% to 4%
Recession2%
4%
0%1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E2014F 2015F1995 2000 2003 2008 20152010
World GFI Growth Rates Have Slowed Down in 2012. A Lower Growth Environment is Expected Over the Next Three Years.
This Drives a Modified Near-Term Value Creation Chart Source: Global Insight and Emerson assessment 17
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Creating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson in the Value at Emerson in the NearNear--Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson in the Value at Emerson in the NearNear--Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentNearNear Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentNearNear Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth Environment
Share RepurchaseProfit
Lower Sales Growth Will Slightly Dampen Our Traditional
EPS and ROTC Targets
ROTC
RepurchaseProfitGrowth
EPS and ROTC Targets
Acquisitions
Target 18 - 22%EBIT Margin~17.5%
OP Margin~19%
Drives EPS 7 - 9% CAGR
Operating Capital Efficiency• Trade Working Capital –
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2012 2012 --2015F Global Gross Fixed (GFI) Investment 2015F Global Gross Fixed (GFI) Investment Growth TrendsGrowth Trends2012 2012 --2015F Global Gross Fixed (GFI) Investment 2015F Global Gross Fixed (GFI) Investment Growth TrendsGrowth Trends
2-4%
Growth TrendsGrowth TrendsGrowth TrendsGrowth Trends
United StatesMATURE 2 4%2-4%
0-2%Western Europe
United States
Canada
MATURE
Mature2-3%
1-3%
3-5%
3-5%Eastern Europe / Russia
Japan
EMERGING
Australia & New Zealand
3 5%
5-7%
3-5%
p
Emerging Asia
Latin America
EMERGING
Emerging 4-6%
3-5%
5-7%
Middle East
Africa
4 6%
3-5%World GFI Growth
Source: IHS Global Insight and EMR assessment 19
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Given the Current Economic Environment, We Given the Current Economic Environment, We Expect 2012Expect 2012--2015F Underlying Sales Growth to be 2015F Underlying Sales Growth to be in the 3%in the 3% -- 5% Range5% Range
Given the Current Economic Environment, We Given the Current Economic Environment, We Expect 2012Expect 2012--2015F Underlying Sales Growth to be 2015F Underlying Sales Growth to be in the 3%in the 3% -- 5% Range5% Rangein the 3% in the 3% 5% Range5% Rangein the 3% in the 3% 5% Range5% Range
$30$B
Growth in the Next Three Years Will Be Slower ~$27 4B
$24.2B $24.4B$25~$25.5B
$27.4B
$21.0B
$20 2012 – 2015F: 3-5% Underlying Growth2010 – 2012: 7.7%
$152010-2015F CAGR: 5-7%
$102010 2011 2012 2013E 2015F
2010 2015F CAGR: 5 7%
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2010-2015F Growth Could Still Be in the 5-7% Range Because of Very Strong 2011 Underlying Growth* of 11%
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How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying GrowthHow Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth
Sales ($B)$29
2012 2015 T t 3 5% G th $2 4
$24.4B$25
$27 2012-2015 Target: 3-5% Growth Internal Strategic
InvestmentsEmerging MarketsMature
~$27.4B
$21
$23MarketsMature
Markets
$17
$19
$13
$15 The Three Key Macro Growth Drivers Within Emerson to Drive ~$3B of
Incremental Sales Over 2012-2015F
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$112012 2015F
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Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Lower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentKey Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Lower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed Investment
● North America– Continued recovery of the U.S. residential market and upgrades– Consumers will continue moderate spending levels– Oil & Gas investments both upstream and downstream– Continued reasonable levels of capital spending on automation to
ff t ti ht i kill d l b k toff-set tightening skilled labor market● Asia Pacific
– China has started to increase fixed investments to drive moderate tt b d b d frecovery - pretty broad based so far
– Southeast Asia driven Oil & Gas investments and China recovery– India should see a solid growth year driven by government election
● Europe– Much growth or recovery is not expected, but It has stabilized and
should see better capital investment environment as year progresses and as we move into 2014progresses, and as we move into 2014
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Emerson Continues to Invest in Countries with Emerson Continues to Invest in Countries with Strong Growth PotentialStrong Growth PotentialEmerson Continues to Invest in Countries with Emerson Continues to Invest in Countries with Strong Growth PotentialStrong Growth PotentialStrong Growth PotentialStrong Growth PotentialStrong Growth PotentialStrong Growth Potential
30%
35%2002-12SalesCAGR
2012EMRSales
2002-12GFI
CAGR
Share of Real (2005 USD) Worldwide Gross Fixed Investment2012Real GFI
20%
25%United States
China20% 16%$3.0B$10.0B 4%
13%0%
$2.0T$2.2T
10%
15% Top EMs (excluding China)
Western Europe
17%$2.1B8%
$3.9B 5%0%
$1.1T
$2.6T
10%
5%
10% Next Tier EMs 5% 10%$2.4B$1.2T
Japan $0.3B 4%(1%)$0.9T
10%
0%1992 2002 2012 Emerson Emerging
Market % of Sales~40%36%19%9%
2015F201220021992
Emerson is Strategically Positioned to Benefit from GFI Growth in Emerging Markets and a Good Recovery in North America
Top EMs: India, Brazil, Russia, MexicoNext Tier EMs: Africa, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Singapore, UAE, Thailand, Colombia, Poland, Turkey, Czech Rep, Indonesia 23
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Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Lower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentKey Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Key Global Investment Trends That Will Drive a Lower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed InvestmentLower But Reasonable Level of Fixed Investment
● North America– Continued recovery of the U.S. residential market and upgrades– Consumers will continue moderate spending levels– Oil & Gas investments both upstream and downstream– Continued reasonable levels of capital spending on automation to
ff t ti ht i kill d l b k toff-set tightening skilled labor market● Asia Pacific
– China has started to increase fixed investments to drive moderate tt b d b d frecovery - pretty broad based so far
– Southeast Asia driven Oil & Gas investments and China recovery– India should see a solid growth year driven by government election
● Europe– Much growth or recovery is not expected, but It has stabilized and
should see better capital investment environment as year progresses and as we move into 2014
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progresses, and as we move into 2014
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Emerson’s Key NearEmerson’s Key Near--Term Growth Regions Term Growth Regions –– Top PrioritiesTop PrioritiesEmerson’s Key NearEmerson’s Key Near--Term Growth Regions Term Growth Regions –– Top PrioritiesTop PrioritiesTop PrioritiesTop PrioritiesTop PrioritiesTop Priorities
United States& Canada
Huge Growth opportunity remains both upstream and downstream, if Government leaders open up Expanded Oil & Gas Exploration and Canada to U S pipeline
We have good penetration but plenty of t d th h P t hi lik
MatureEmerging
Exploration and Canada to U.S. pipeline. Also U.S. residential housing markets are gaining positive momentum
Mexico room to expand through Partnerships like Pemex: a top growth priority over the next 3 years, as we drive to $1B in salesGreat opportunity for growth as the region i f ll f N t l R d ti dEastern
Europe / Russia
We will take advantage of our strong
is full of Natural Resources and continued infrastructure build out and production expansion to serve Western Europe
China
g ginvestments in the region – We Expect a Good Recovery in 2013 and 2014. We have significant growth penetration left across all emerging markets
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SoutheastAsia
Significant Oil & Gas and natural resource investments and “balance against China”. Growth across the region should show steady opportunities
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How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying GrowthHow Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth
Sales ($B)
$27
$292012-2015 Target: 3-5% Growth ~$27.4B
$24.4B
$23
$25
$27 gInternal
Strategic Investments
Emerging MarketsMature
M k t
• Oil & Gas in North AmericaR id ti l M k t
$19
$21Markets
There Will Be Good Growth Available in U.S., Canada some European Markets (Germany / Italy)
• Residential Market Recovery in U.S.
$13
$15
$17
Canada, some European Markets (Germany / Italy) and Australia, as China Recovery takes hold
$11
$13
2012 2015F2010 2012 2010-2012 CAGR 2015F 2012-2015F CAGR
Mature Market Sales
$13.9B $15.7B 6.5% ~$16.7B ~2%
26+1.8B +1.0B
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Growth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 YearsGrowth in Mature Markets is Key to Next 3 Years● Gross Fixed Investment in Mature Markets will grow
2%-3%, Emerson’s sales should grow slightly above th k t 2 3 %the market: 2-3+%
● Oil & Gas Investments and recovery of residential market in North America will drive significant growthmarket in North America will drive significant growth
● Investments in Shale Gas in Canada will also help the growth (3-Year CAGR: 7%+)growth (3 Year CAGR: 7% )
● No overall growth expected in Western Europe
● Australia should recover growth in 2014 and 2015 as● Australia should recover growth in 2014 and 2015 as China markets recover
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20102010--2012 Mature Market Sales Were Solid and 2012 Mature Market Sales Were Solid and PositivePositive20102010--2012 Mature Market Sales Were Solid and 2012 Mature Market Sales Were Solid and PositivePositivePositivePositivePositivePositive
2012 Sales
2010-2012
CAGR14% $0 9B
Canada
U.S.
14% $0.9B
5% $3.9B
Western Europe
Japan
5% $10B5% $
7% $0.3B
Australia & New Zealand
2010-2012 CAGR
2012 Sales
2012 Sales 2010-2012 CAGRMature Markets $15.7B 6.5%
49% $0.6B
Mature Markets Grew $1.8B Over Just 2 Years and Should Continue to Drive Moderate Growth Over the Next 3 Years – +$1B, Led by U.S. and Canada
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20122012--2015F Sales in Mature Markets2015F Sales in Mature Markets20122012--2015F Sales in Mature Markets2015F Sales in Mature Markets20122012 2015F Sales in Mature Markets2015F Sales in Mature Markets20122012 2015F Sales in Mature Markets2015F Sales in Mature Markets$18
JapanUnited WesternE CanadaAustralia &
New Zealand ~$16 7B
Sales ($B)
$16
JapanStates Europe
Canada New Zealand $16.7B$15.7B
$12
$14
$10
$12
Mature Markets 2012-2015F CAGR: ~2%
$82015F2012
The United States Will Account for Most of Emerson’s Mature Market Growth Over the Next Three Years – Emerson Will Take Advantage of a
Better U.S. Investment Environment29
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United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdown
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdown
• Strong Investments in UpstreamOil & Gas • Strong Investments in Upstream and Downstream• 3-Year CAGR: 8%+
Residential • U.S. Residential Market isU it d St t Residential MarketU.S. Residential Market is Expected to Recover
• 3-Year CAGR: 15%+
United States
Industrial • Reasonable Levels of Capital
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Reasonable Levels of Capital Spending on Automation
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Mature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed InvestmentMature Markets Gross Fixed Investment
5% 5% 5% 5%6% 6% 6% 6%
90%
100%
Canada
Australia & New Zealand
17% 16% 17% 16%
70%
80% Japan2010-2015F
Change(1 pts)
41% 41% 39% 38%
40%
50%
60% Western Europe2010-2015F
Change
31% 32% 33% 35%20%
30%
40%
United States
(3 pts)
31% 32% 33% 35%
0%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2015F
2010-2015F Change+4 pts
2010 2011 2012 2015F
Source: IHS Global Insight and EMR assessment- 2012 Nominal GFI Base, with Real Growth Rates
Mature GFI $7.2T $7.4T $7.6T0 $8.1T0United States and Canada Should Offer Solid Growth Prospects
31
-
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdown
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdown
• Strong Investments in UpstreamOil & Gas • Strong Investments in Upstream and Downstream• 3-Year CAGR: 8%+
Residential • U.S. Residential market isU it d St t Residential MarketU.S. Residential market is expected to recover
• 3-Year CAGR: 15%+
United States
Industrial • Reasonable levels of Capital
32
Reasonable levels of Capital Spending on Automation
-
Oil & Gas Companies are Making Significant Oil & Gas Companies are Making Significant Investments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and CanadaOil & Gas Companies are Making Significant Oil & Gas Companies are Making Significant Investments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and CanadaInvestments in United States and Canada
North America Top 10 Oil & Gas Companies
(Upstream & Midstream)
Strong Investments Announced in U.S. Indicate Growth in the Oil & Gas Market
6%6%
(Upstream & Midstream)CAPEX Spend $266B (2013-2017)
TransCanadaChevron
Iowa Fertilizer’s investments in a greenfield nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facility in Iowa
A i l t tl i t ti /
~$1.4B6%
6%6%
5%55%
ExxonMobil
Enbridge
Imperial OilSasol plans to invest in 2 plants to take advantage of cheap natural gas unlocked
Ammonia plants currently in construction/ detailed-engineering or in FEED studies 8
$21B 5%4%
55%
3%4%
3%2%
Imperial Oil
Shell
Suncor EnergyAnadarko
advantage of cheap natural gas unlocked by the U.S. shale revolution
Potential LNG export projects in U.S., with strong interest in exports for non-NAFTA
Others
~$21B
16 2% BPPetroChina
North America Top 10 Oil & Gas C i Will A f
trading partners
Capital investments in shale gas are expected between 2010 and 2015. Shale gas’ economic contribution in U.S. is
16
$1 9T
33
Companies Will Account for ~$120B of the Total Capex
Investments
gas economic contribution in U.S. is expanding rapidly from $76B in 2010 to $118B in 2015.
Source: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, IHS Global Insight
$1.9T
-
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdown
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdown
• Strong investments in UpstreamOil & Gas • Strong investments in Upstream and Downstream• 3-Year CAGR: 8%+
Residential • U.S. Residential Market isU it d St t Residential MarketU.S. Residential Market is Expected to Recover
• 3-Year CAGR: 15%+
United States
Industrial • Reasonable levels of Capital
34
Reasonable levels of Capital Spending on Automation
-
Housing Recovery Remains on Track, and Will Housing Recovery Remains on Track, and Will Be HelpfulBe HelpfulHousing Recovery Remains on Track, and Will Housing Recovery Remains on Track, and Will Be HelpfulBe HelpfulBe HelpfulBe HelpfulBe HelpfulBe Helpful
2 02.5
Housing Starts, M unitsSource: Census Bureau, NEMA/BIS
0 51.01.52.0
Total
0.00.5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Single family
● Housing Market Recovery is Gaining Momentum
– New housing starts rose to their highest level since the middle of 6
7
1 41.61.8
Single Family Home Sales, M unitsSource: Census Bureau
highest level since the middle of November 2008
● Housing Starts Up 25% and 35% in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013
6 9 M th L f HVAC I t ll ti4
5
6
0.40.60.81.01.21.4
New (left axis)– 6-9 Month Lag for HVAC Installation– Additional 100K Systems Sales
35
30.00.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Existing (right axis)
-
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdown
United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent United States Will Offer Emerson Excellent Growth Opportunities Through this Global Growth Opportunities Through this Global SlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownSlowdown
• Strong investments in UpstreamOil & Gas • Strong investments in Upstream and Downstream• 3-Year CAGR: 8%+
Residential • U.S. Residential market isU it d St t Residential MarketU.S. Residential market is expected to recover
• 3-Year CAGR: 15%+
United States
Industrial • Reasonable Levels of Capital
36
Reasonable Levels of Capital Spending on Automation
-
Industrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market ReboundIndustrial Automation Market Rebound
$B
U.S. Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Manufacturing
$300
$400 3 Trends Pointing to a U.S. Manufacturing Rebound
• Dissipating cost advantages of3.5% Growth
Today
$100
$200 Dissipating cost advantages of outsourcing
• A weakening dollar is making U.S. d tt ti t f iI d t i l M hi
5.6% Growth
$-goods more attractive to foreign buyers
• Energy production is booming in the $15
$20
Industrial Machinery
U.S. (petroleum and coal products represent 10% of U.S. manufacturing production, up from 3% in 2000)
$5
$10
$15
4.4% Growth
2.8% GrowthSource: The Wall Street Journal
$-1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2.8% Growth
37
-
How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying GrowthHow Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth
Sales ($B)
$27
$292012-2015 Target: 3-5% Growth ~$27.4B
$24.4B
$23
$25
$27 gInternal
Strategic Investments
Emerging MarketsMature
$
• China• Southeast Asia• Mexico• Eastern Europe /
R i$19
$21Markets
Russia• Middle East
$13
$15
$17
Last 2 Years of Investments Will Pay off With Increased Growth in Key Emerging Markets in
$11
$13
2012 2015F
China, India, Latin America, Middle East and Africa. We Have Plenty of Room for Strong Growth in Emerging Markets – Low Penetration Today
2010 2012 2010-2012 CAGR 2015F 2012-2015F CAGR
Emerging Market Sales
$7.1B $8.7B 10.0% ~$10.7B ~7%
+1.6B +2.0B 38
-
Growth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging MarketsGrowth in Emerging Markets● Gross Fixed Investments in Emerging Markets will grow
4-6%, Emerson’s Sales Will Grow at a Higher Rate: ~7%
● Top Emerging Countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China) will drive approximately 60% of Emerson’s sales in emerging markets in the next three yearssales in emerging markets in the next three years
● China has started to increase fixed Investments to drive moderate recoverymoderate recovery
● Oil & Gas investments will drive growth in Southeast Asia
● Upcoming government election in India will most likely generate a solid 2013-2014 growth year
39
-
20102010--2012 Emerging Market Sales Grew 2012 Emerging Market Sales Grew $1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR20102010--2012 Emerging Market Sales Grew 2012 Emerging Market Sales Grew $1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR$1.6B / 10% CAGR
2012 Sales
2010-2012
CAGR Eastern CAGR
18% $1.1B
Europe
6% $4.9B
Asia PacificLatin
America
Middle East / Africa
6% $4.9B16% $1.4B
2010-2012 2012
13% $1.3B
CAGR2012 Sales2012 Sales 2010-2012
CAGREmerging Markets $8.7B 10%
40
A Nice Balance in All Emerging Markets. Sales Dollar Increases Over the Past Two Years - $1.6B
-
20122012--2015F Sales in Emerging Markets2015F Sales in Emerging Markets20122012--2015F Sales in Emerging Markets2015F Sales in Emerging Markets20122012 2015F Sales in Emerging Markets2015F Sales in Emerging Markets20122012 2015F Sales in Emerging Markets2015F Sales in Emerging Markets
$12 Middle East & Af i
EasternEuropeLatinA i ~$10 7B
Sales ($B)
$8
$10& Africap/ Russia
Latin America
Asia Pacific
~$10.7B
$8.7B
$6
$8
$2
$4Emerging Markets
2012-2015F CAGR: ~7%
$0
$2
2015F2012
Emerson Has a Good Balance Across All the Emerging Markets and Gaining Strength in the Next Important Tier of Emerging Markets
41
-
We Have Invested Significantly in Top Emerging We Have Invested Significantly in Top Emerging Economies Over the Last 5 Years, Which Will Economies Over the Last 5 Years, Which Will Drive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth Opportunities
We Have Invested Significantly in Top Emerging We Have Invested Significantly in Top Emerging Economies Over the Last 5 Years, Which Will Economies Over the Last 5 Years, Which Will Drive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth OpportunitiesDrive Our Near Term Growth Opportunities
Russia• Added 655+ People
16 N OffiMexico
• 16 New Offices• 1 New Facility• 10 New Regional Offices• Spent Over $60M CapEx
• Added 125+ Customer Facing People
• 5 New Offices• 2 New Service Centers• Spent Over $113M on
New Facilities
India• Added 1,860+ People• 28 New OfficesB il
China• Added 540+ Customer
Facing People• 134 New Offices• 28 New Offices
• Spent Over $80M CapExBrazil
• Added 770+ People• 3 New Offices• Sorocaba Facility Expansion
S t O $60M C E
• 134 New Offices• 13 New Service Centers• 10 Facility Expansions• Spent Over $200M CapEx
42
• Spent Over $60M CapEx
-
Strong Oil & Gas and Infrastructure Investments Strong Oil & Gas and Infrastructure Investments Along With a Reasonable Rebound in China Will Along With a Reasonable Rebound in China Will Drive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market Growth
Strong Oil & Gas and Infrastructure Investments Strong Oil & Gas and Infrastructure Investments Along With a Reasonable Rebound in China Will Along With a Reasonable Rebound in China Will Drive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market GrowthDrive Solid Emerging Market Growth
$4.0Sales ($B)
2002 CAGR 16%2007 2012
Top 5 Emerging 54%
$2 0
$3.02012
2015F
p g gMarket Sales % of Total Emerging Sales
59%54%
$8.7B$6.1B
$1.0
$2.0CAGR 10%
CAGR 13%
CAGR 22%
CAGR 19%Approaching
$1BApproaching
$1B
$0.0Mexico Brazil Russia India China
2012 Sales $0 6B $0 4B $0 5B $0 6B $3 0B2012 Sales $0.6B $0.4B $0.5B $0.6B $3.0B2012-2015FGFI Growth 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0%
2015F $0 8B $0 5B $0 6B $0 8B $3 8B2015F ~$0.8B ~$0.5B ~$0.6B ~$0.8B ~$3.8B
43
These Five Markets Will Drive ~60% of Our Emerging Market Sales, As We Approach 40% of Total Sales in Emerging Markets
-
Total China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business GroupTotal China Sales by Business Group
~$3.8B2005–2012 CAGRCommercial13%
2012 China Economic Slowdown Hurt us, but
$3.0B$2.7B
16.8%
26 4%
Commercial & Residential Solutions
Industrial
13%10-yr CAGR
Slowdown Hurt us, but Recovery Has Started
$
10.5%
26.4%AutomationClimate Technologies
$1.1B 12.6%Process Management
2005 2010 2012 2015F
16.1%NetworkPower
Mid-Tier Investments will Augment Growth in the Next Three Years, But Core Products Drive Largest Dollar Growth
44Note: excludes Motors & Appliances
-
Investing in the China MidInvesting in the China Mid--Tier Market Tier Market ––New Product DevelopmentNew Product DevelopmentInvesting in the China MidInvesting in the China Mid--Tier Market Tier Market ––New Product DevelopmentNew Product DevelopmentNew Product DevelopmentNew Product DevelopmentNew Product DevelopmentNew Product Development
$0.3B $3.0B ~$3.8B Emerson Sales in China Have Grown t 20% CAGR O
Top Tier China
$2.3B76%96%
at a 20% CAGR Over the Last 12 Years
~$2.8B74%
$290M
Mid-Tier China Sales
Top-Tier China Sales
$0.7B24%
96%
4% ~$1.0B26%2000 2012 2015F
24%
Industrial91 Mid-Tier Products Currently in Market 2013-2015 Total
26%
Industrial Automation
Climate Technologies
NetworkP
+14 42
+3 14
+4 22
2811
18PowerProcess
Management
+4 22
+38 62
140
1824
45
-
Emerson Has a Lot of Runway for Growth Across Emerson Has a Lot of Runway for Growth Across Our Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesEmerson Has a Lot of Runway for Growth Across Emerson Has a Lot of Runway for Growth Across Our Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total SalesOur Emerging Markets at 36% of Total Sales
Top 5 Next 12
2002 2012 2002 2012
3%
2002 2012 2002 2012
5% 1% 3%
Emerson Sales
Emerson SalesTargeted
GFI
$0 7BEmerson Sales $1 2B $5 1B $2 5B
Targeted GFI
10YR CAGR16%
10YR CAGR14%$0.7B
Total GFI
Targeted GFI
$0.9T $5.3T $0.5T $1.5T
$40B $106B $50B $90B
Emerson Sales $1.2B $5.1B $2.5B16%
10%
14%
7%
~5% Penetration of our Key Markets ~3% Penetration of our Key Markets
g $ $ $ $%
Source: IHS Global Insight and Emerson assessment
2002-2012: Emerson’s Position Strengthened In Key Emerging Markets. We Will Continue On This Path In Order To Increase Our Penetration In
These Markets – Plenty of Room for Growth46
-
Our Current Relative Position in Key Emerging Our Current Relative Position in Key Emerging MarketsMarkets –– and Top Prioritiesand Top PrioritiesOur Current Relative Position in Key Emerging Our Current Relative Position in Key Emerging MarketsMarkets –– and Top Prioritiesand Top Priorities
Process Management Network Power
Industrial Automation
Climate Technologies
Commercial & Residential Solutions
Mexico
Markets Markets and Top Priorities and Top Priorities Markets Markets and Top Priorities and Top Priorities
Mexico
Brazil
Russia
India
Top 5 Countries
China
Malaysia
Singapore
UAE
The Next12 Impactful
UAE
Africa
Saudi Arabia
Thailand12 Impactful
Markets Czech RepublicPoland
Colombia
S th KSouth Korea
Turkey
Indonesia
Note: Colors signify our current strength of presence to drive growth 47
-
Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia is a Key Pocket of Growthis a Key Pocket of GrowthSoutheast AsiaSoutheast Asia is a Key Pocket of Growthis a Key Pocket of GrowthSoutheast AsiaSoutheast Asia is a Key Pocket of Growth is a Key Pocket of Growth Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia is a Key Pocket of Growth is a Key Pocket of Growth
This slide has been omitted
48
-
Middle EastMiddle East is Another Key Pocket of Growthis Another Key Pocket of GrowthMiddle EastMiddle East is Another Key Pocket of Growthis Another Key Pocket of GrowthMiddle EastMiddle East is Another Key Pocket of Growthis Another Key Pocket of GrowthMiddle EastMiddle East is Another Key Pocket of Growthis Another Key Pocket of Growth
This slide has been omitted
49
-
We Continue to Increase Our International and We Continue to Increase Our International and Emerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets PresenceWe Continue to Increase Our International and We Continue to Increase Our International and Emerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets PresenceEmerging Markets Presence
100%Gross Fixed Investment Emerson Sales
75%45%
49% 64%~60%MatureMature
74%
50%80%
55%
91%
74%81%
25%
55%
51%
EmergingEmerging 36%~40%
26%
0%1992 2002 2012 2015F
20%
1992 2002 2012 2015F
EmergingEmerging
9%
36%26% 19%
Twenty Years Ago, Our Sales Mix Did Not Reflect Global Investment Patterns.Emerson Continues to Invest in Emerging Markets to Grow and Rebalance
1992 2002 2012 2015F
Source: IHS Global Insight and Emerson assessment 50
-
Our Past Investments in Emerging Markets are Our Past Investments in Emerging Markets are Continuing to Pay Off with Strong Sales Growth; Continuing to Pay Off with Strong Sales Growth; Mature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has Returned
Our Past Investments in Emerging Markets are Our Past Investments in Emerging Markets are Continuing to Pay Off with Strong Sales Growth; Continuing to Pay Off with Strong Sales Growth; Mature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has ReturnedMature Market Growth Has Returned
2012-15F
$8 7B$15.7B
2012
Emerging MarketsMature Markets
$7 1B$13.9B
2010
~$10 7B~$16.7B
2015F CAGR
~7%~2%
$24.4B$8.7B
Total Emerson SalesEmerging Markets
$21.0B$7.1B
~$27.4B~$10.7B
~3-5%~7%
∆ Mature Markets$$1.8B
$~$1.0B
∆ Emerging Markets $1.6B ~$2.0B
51
~55% of Growth Over the Last Two Years has Come from Mature Markets.For the Next Three Years Emerging Markets will Continue to Be a Source of
High Growth and Increased Incremental Sales
-
How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying GrowthHow Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? How Do We Drive to a $27.4B Company by 2015? 20122012 –– 2015: 32015: 3--5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth2012 2012 2015: 32015: 3 5% Underlying Growth5% Underlying Growth
Sales ($B)$29
2012 2015 T t 3 5% G th $2 4
$24.4B$25
$27 2012-2015 Target: 3-5% Growth Internal Strategic
InvestmentsEmerging MarketsMature
~$27.4B
• Internal Strategic Programs
• New Products & Markets
• Service $21
$23MarketsMature
Markets
Infrastructure• Perfect Execution
$17
$19
Internal Strategic Investments Leverage Our Global Presence and Ensure We Keep Our
Technology Edge. Focusing on Both Customers and Execution, We Drive Benefits
on Operational Sales and Profits$13
$15
52
on Operational Sales and Profits$11
2012 2015F
-
Strategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments RoadmapStrategic Investments Roadmap● Over the last 12 years, targeted Strategic Investments
allowed us to pursue Higher Growth and Profit O t iti d t l f tOpportunities and create value for our customers
● We were able to Increase Our Services & Solutions at a global level by upgrading our infrastructure andglobal level by upgrading our infrastructure and increasing our headcount
● We invested in Innovation and Technology, defendingWe invested in Innovation and Technology, defending our core markets and entering new ones
● Strategic Investments Increased Sales and Both Gross and Operating Margins, and we will keep investing to obtain further growth
53
-
We Continue to Invest to Increase Technology Base and We Continue to Invest to Increase Technology Base and Service & Solution Capabilities to Drive a Higher Gross Service & Solution Capabilities to Drive a Higher Gross Profit Margin and Sustainable ProfitabilityProfit Margin and Sustainable Profitability
We Continue to Invest to Increase Technology Base and We Continue to Invest to Increase Technology Base and Service & Solution Capabilities to Drive a Higher Gross Service & Solution Capabilities to Drive a Higher Gross Profit Margin and Sustainable ProfitabilityProfit Margin and Sustainable Profitability
2000 2010 2012 2013E 2015F
Reported
Profit Margin and Sustainable ProfitabilityProfit Margin and Sustainable ProfitabilityProfit Margin and Sustainable ProfitabilityProfit Margin and Sustainable Profitability
2000 2010 2012 2013E 2015FSales $15.5B $21.0B $24.4B $25.0-25.6B ~$27.4B
GP Margin 35.6% 39.6% 40.0% ~40.5% ~42.0%
OP M i * 16 3% 16 7% 17 7% 17 8% 17 9% 19 0%OP Margin* 16.3% 16.7% 17.7% 17.8%-17.9% ~19.0%
E&D (% of Sales) 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% ~3.4% ~3.5%Directed Strategic Investments $20M $15M $45M ~$45M ~$50M
Services & Solutions (% of Sales) 5% 9% 10% ~11% ~13%(% of Sales)
The Increasing Investments We Made On Technology Strategic ProgramsThe Increasing Investments We Made On Technology, Strategic Programs, and Service & Solution Capabilities Were Successful and Brought Value to
Our Customers and Shareholders54Note: potential sales of Embedded Computing & Power would improve margins by ~50 bps
-
Strategic Investments Focus on Programs That Strategic Investments Focus on Programs That Increase Emerson’s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson’s Strategic Value to CustomersStrategic Investments Focus on Programs That Strategic Investments Focus on Programs That Increase Emerson’s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson’s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson s Strategic Value to CustomersIncrease Emerson s Strategic Value to Customers
E i h dLevel of Customer
Engagement
Services & Solutions
Enriched Business
Model
gage e t
A li ti
Emerging Markets
Solutions
Historical E&D Investments
ProductTechnologies
Application
Expanding Emerson’s Value
within OurMarket Analysis
Strategic Value
within Our Served Markets
Value
55
-
20102010--2013E: Targeted Strategic Investment 2013E: Targeted Strategic Investment Programs Drive Very Specific Technology and Programs Drive Very Specific Technology and Key Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth Repositioning
20102010--2013E: Targeted Strategic Investment 2013E: Targeted Strategic Investment Programs Drive Very Specific Technology and Programs Drive Very Specific Technology and Key Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth RepositioningKey Industry Growth Repositioning
This slide has been omitted
56
-
Strategic Investments Continue to Increase the Strategic Investments Continue to Increase the Value We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our CustomersStrategic Investments Continue to Increase the Strategic Investments Continue to Increase the Value We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our CustomersValue We Deliver to Our Customers
This slide has been omitted
57
-
E&D Investments: Confirm Our Technological E&D Investments: Confirm Our Technological Leadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityE&D Investments: Confirm Our Technological E&D Investments: Confirm Our Technological Leadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our ProfitabilityLeadership and Increase Our Profitability
~$1B
Engineering & Development Investments
Patents GrantedPatents Granted~2,000
25%
28%
$623M
$808M 1,646
45%50%
Emerging
72%
17%$6 3
Emerging1,081
40%
45%
50%
Emerging
55%83%75% 72%
Mature
60%
50%
Mature
E&D % of Sales 2.8% 3.3% ~3.5%
2007 2012 2015F2007 2012 2015F
MatureMature
We Will Continue to Moderately Increase Our E&D Investments to Drive Further Growth and Achieve Our Gross Profit Target of 42%
58
-
Emerson’s New Product Engineering HeadcountEmerson’s New Product Engineering Headcount20102010--2012: Increased +1,081 People2012: Increased +1,081 PeopleEmerson’s New Product Engineering HeadcountEmerson’s New Product Engineering Headcount20102010--2012: Increased +1,081 People2012: Increased +1,081 People20102010 2012: Increased 1,081 People2012: Increased 1,081 People20102010 2012: Increased 1,081 People2012: Increased 1,081 People
This slide has been omitted
59
-
Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010--20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010--20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010 20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010 20132013
Our Investments in Technology Drive Our Market Leadership, Create Value to Customers, and Support
Introduction Year
p, , ppSales and Margin Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013E
Introduction Year
Numbers Of Major Programs 72 66 106 120
Intro + 5 Years Sales Expectations $8.9B $8.4B $10.5B $11.0B
Between 2010-2012 We Launched 244 New Products That Will Result in $25+B Sales Over the Next 5 Years
60
-
Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010--20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010--20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010 20132013Major New Products Launches 2010Major New Products Launches 2010 20132013DeltaV SIS
CHARM I/O Logic Solvers
Liebert NXL 1100 KVA
CHARM I/O Logic SolversSafety
InstrumentedSystems
Leveraging CHARM
High Level Power Availability
T f b d CHARMsTransformer-based UPS LIFE™ - Enabled
(up to 1100 KVA Modules)
250 – 1100 kVA Modules
3 Next Generation Scroll Compressors Wireless
With 1 4BWith over 1.4B operating hours,
wireless is moving into main stream
operations
Refrigeration Market Residential Market
•Significantly Smaller•More Efficient•Embedded
•Energy Efficient•Size•Increased
2010 2011 2012 CAGR
Bookings $75M $120M $195M 61%
p•Embedded Electronics
•Increased Diagnostics
•New Regulations
61
-
20102010--2012: We Invested Globally on Customer 2012: We Invested Globally on Customer Facing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and Penetration20102010--2012: We Invested Globally on Customer 2012: We Invested Globally on Customer Facing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and PenetrationFacing People to Increase Sales and Penetration
3,415 3,772 3,526 3,865, ,
4,365 5,087
357339
526 773
282 449
,
Investments 2010-2012247
167722
North America $33MLatin America $28MEurope $51M
& f $
247
∆
Middle East & Africa $31MAsia Pacific $106M
Total $249M
2010 Customer
Facing
2012 Customer
Facing
Over the Next 3 Years We Will Add 1,950+ Customer Facing People to Support Our Technology Investment and to Enhance Our Partnership With Customers
62
-
China Investment for Growth tChina Investment for Growth to Protect and o Protect and Extend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer BaseChina Investment for Growth tChina Investment for Growth to Protect and o Protect and Extend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer BaseExtend Our Broad Customer Base
5 000+5,000+
1,410 1,7671,925+ Sales
Headcount
E i i
3,724 4,372
2010 2012 2013E
2,605 3,110+Engineering Headcount2,314
We Have Over 4,000 Customer-Facing and Engineering Personnel in a Key Growth Market and We Have Rebalanced Westward
63
-
Services & Solutions Support Our Growth and Services & Solutions Support Our Growth and Deliver Value to Customers at Several LevelsDeliver Value to Customers at Several LevelsServices & Solutions Support Our Growth and Services & Solutions Support Our Growth and Deliver Value to Customers at Several LevelsDeliver Value to Customers at Several LevelsDeliver Value to Customers at Several Levels Deliver Value to Customers at Several Levels Deliver Value to Customers at Several Levels Deliver Value to Customers at Several Levels
~$3.4B2012 2007 2012
$1 8B$2.4B
2012Sales
2007-2012CAGR
Contracts $550M +6%
Maintenance $697M +11%$1.8B Maintenance $697M +11%Repair and Rebuild $493M +8%Engineering and Consulting $286M +3%
$1.6B
ConsultingInstallation $355M +28%
Training $31M +4%2007 2010 2012 2015F Total $2,412M +9%
% of Sales 9% 10% ~12%7%
Services & Solutions Accounting for ~12% Of Our Sales in 2015 Will be Key in Achieving the Financial Targets that Differentiate us from Our Competitors
64
-
Our Service Headcount Reflects the Company’s Our Service Headcount Reflects the Company’s Installed BaseInstalled BaseOur Service Headcount Reflects the Company’s Our Service Headcount Reflects the Company’s Installed BaseInstalled BaseInstalled Base Installed Base Installed Base Installed Base
$104B$45B
2,500People 1,615$45Bp 1,615People
Last 10 Years of
SalesCurrent
Headcount
$38B
$10B
1,872People
165People
814People $9B
Service Headcount:3,549
290
5,0182,609 3,695
1,953 3,316
Service Headcount
(2012)
Installed BaseSales
(Last 10 years)2010 2012 2015FProcess Management Network Power
+940
2010 2012 2015FClimate Technologies
+100
290
2010 2012 2015F
+1,323190
,160
g g
Over the Next 3 Years We Will Add 2,300+ Service Personnel to Harvest MRO Opportunities and to Protect Our Valuable Installed Base
65
-
We Plan to Open 35 New Service Centers Over We Plan to Open 35 New Service Centers Over The Next 3 Years The Next 3 Years –– After Opening 102 from 2010After Opening 102 from 2010--20122012
We Plan to Open 35 New Service Centers Over We Plan to Open 35 New Service Centers Over The Next 3 Years The Next 3 Years –– After Opening 102 from 2010After Opening 102 from 2010--201220122012201220122012
2012 2015F 2012-15Process Management 383 407 +24
We Will Develop Our Service Infrastructure In Emerging Markets
Service Center Locations
Process Management 383 407 +24Network Power 265 266 +1Climate Technologies 16 26 +10
Infrastructure In Emerging Markets and In Clusters Across Major
Installed Base Sites66
-
Process ManagementProcess Management Provides Support to Provides Support to Customers Promptly, Everywhere, Customers Promptly, Everywhere, and for Every Needand for Every Need
Process ManagementProcess Management Provides Support to Provides Support to Customers Promptly, Everywhere, Customers Promptly, Everywhere, and for Every Needand for Every Need
Proximity & Responsiveness
People: 4hrParts: 24hr
People: 4hrParts: 24hr
People: 4hrParts: 24hr
and for Every Needand for Every Needand for Every Needand for Every NeedSystems Measurement/FlowFinal Controls
Responsiveness Required Quick Ship: 5 daysDepot: 2hr
QuickShip: 10 daysStaging: 24hr
Quick Ship: 5 daysDepot: 24hr
Super 3 Super Centers3 Super CentersSupeCenterTier 3
S i 380 Service Centers380 Service Centers
pp• Outage Management • Depot Repair Center
• Multi Business Unit • Training Center
Service CenterTier 2
380 Service Centers380 Service Centers• Multi Business Unit • Quick Ship/Repair
• Software Upgrade • Embedded Resources
Field ServiceTier 1
2,609 Field Service Engineers2,609 Field Service Engineers• Repair/Replace • Basic Maintenance
• Local Response in Remote Areas• Meter Calibration
We Adapted Our Service & Solutions Capabilities to Our Customers’ Needs. The Proximity and Responsiveness We Provide are Unmatched
67
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Emerson Continues to Invest in Enriched Emerson Continues to Invest in Enriched Business Models: Business Models: Climate TechnologiesClimate TechnologiesResidential Solutions BusinessResidential Solutions Business ModelModel
Emerson Continues to Invest in Enriched Emerson Continues to Invest in Enriched Business Models: Business Models: Climate TechnologiesClimate TechnologiesResidential Solutions BusinessResidential Solutions Business ModelModelResidential Solutions BusinessResidential Solutions Business ModelModelResidential Solutions BusinessResidential Solutions Business ModelModel
This slide has been omitted
68
-
Climate TechnologiesClimate Technologies’ Deep System Diagnostics ’ Deep System Diagnostics Convert Data into Information and Deliver First Convert Data into Information and Deliver First Class Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and Services
Climate TechnologiesClimate Technologies’ Deep System Diagnostics ’ Deep System Diagnostics Convert Data into Information and Deliver First Convert Data into Information and Deliver First Class Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and ServicesClass Solutions and Services
This slide has been omitted
69
-
Creating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidShare
RepurchaseProfit
Growth
ROTCEBIT Margin
14 - 18+%Drives EPS
$5BAcquisitions
ROTCTarget 15 - 25%
14 - 18+%OP Margin15 - 19+%
EPS 10 - 13% CAGR
Operating Capital Efficiency• Trade Working Capital –
Underlying Sales
Growth
-
20052005 –– 2015F Profitability2015F Profitability20052005 –– 2015F Profitability2015F Profitability2005 2005 2015F Profitability2015F Profitability2005 2005 2015F Profitability2015F Profitability2010 2012 2015F2005
35.7%39.6% 40.0% 42.0% Gross Profit~42%
15.0% 16.7%17.7% 19.0% Operating Profit~19%
*
13.6% 14.9% 16.1%17.4% EBIT~17.5% *
71
Through-the-Cycle EBIT* Margin is 14% – 18%+, Driven by a Continuous Focus on Perfect Execution Programs
Note: potential sales of Embedded Computing & Power would improve margins by ~50 bps
-
Our Perfect Execution Strategy Our Perfect Execution Strategy ––A Key Driver of WorldA Key Driver of World--Class PerformanceClass PerformanceOur Perfect Execution Strategy Our Perfect Execution Strategy ––A Key Driver of WorldA Key Driver of World--Class PerformanceClass PerformanceA Key Driver of WorldA Key Driver of World Class PerformanceClass PerformanceA Key Driver of WorldA Key Driver of World Class PerformanceClass Performance
The Right Product.On Time. Every Time. • Best lead time to customers• Unwavering customer loyalty
Providing Value to Customers and a Return to Shareholders • Solutions to today’s challenges• Continuously improving total cost
Best in Class Asset M t
• Optimal product availability • Matching supply to customer demand
and a Return to Shareholders Continuously improving total cost
Management • Matching supply to customer demandContinually Improve Core • Leading technology and solutions
Profitability to Invest for Growth • Positioned to win in growth areas
72
-
Perfect Execution Benefits are All Centered Perfect Execution Benefits are All Centered Around Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and EfficiencyPerfect Execution Benefits are All Centered Perfect Execution Benefits are All Centered Around Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and EfficiencyAround Speed and Efficiency• Delivering world-class customer service differentiates and builds loyalty
- Elevating customer engagement to anticipate needs fasterf- Equipping customer facing employees with the best tools and training
• Solutions capabilities create value for customers- Innovative approaches to optimization allow customers to focus on growth
- Helping customers manage resources more efficiently – just like we do ourselves
• Rigorous focus on optimizing asset management- Investing in capabilities and technologies to position customers to win- More efficient resource allocation maintains focus on customer needs
• Higher levels of innovation drive growth for customers and Emerson- Continuously investing in new products and solutions- Anticipating technology trends to position for the futureg gy
73
Again, This is a Journey We Must Accelerate and Make Happen in Today’s Slower Growth Market Environment
-
Our Robust Profit Planning Process Continues to Our Robust Profit Planning Process Continues to Drive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsOur Robust Profit Planning Process Continues to Our Robust Profit Planning Process Continues to Drive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and ReturnsDrive Margin, Cash Flow and Returns
Supply ChainProcurementLogistics
Product PortfolioDevelopment ProcessProduct Line Integration
Facility ReviewFacility MixBest Practices Logistics
Lean EnterpriseDemand & Production Plan
Product Line Integration, Rationalization, Prioritization Quality
Best PracticesRisk Management
Asset UtilizationInventoryDSO & DPO
Price InitiativesPower & Risk AnalysisNew Services / Features
Annual Profit ReviewsNow Led by Bob Sharp DSO & DPO
CAPEXNew Services / FeaturesVisibility Initiatives Vendavo
y p…….
Perfect Execution
Human ResourcesLabor ProductivityMedical Inflation
Ethics & SafetySafety Audit ResultsEthics Training
ITERP / Oracle UpdatesSystem Updates Medical Inflation
Job MovesCompensation ContainmentTraining/Development
Ethics TrainingSystem UpdatesNew SoftwareEmerson.com
74
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Emerson Performance MetricsEmerson Performance Metrics -- ExampleExampleEmerson Performance MetricsEmerson Performance Metrics -- ExampleExampleEmerson Performance Metrics Emerson Performance Metrics ExampleExampleEmerson Performance Metrics Emerson Performance Metrics ExampleExampleCustomer Satisfaction
Customer Service LevelsQuality
On-Time Delivery Customer Loyalty
QualityLead Time Quality (PPM)
Asset Utilization
InventoryDSO & DPO
Days Sales Outstanding Days Payable Outstanding
DSO & DPOCAPEX Days in Cash Cycle Inventory Turnover
Supply Chain
Procurement
Lead Time Service Level
LogisticsLean EnterpriseDemand & Production Plan
Regionalization Forecast Accuracy
75
-
Emerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy ScorecardEmerson Regionalization Strategy Scorecard
Americas EuropeAsia
Pacific
1 – 5 (Worst) to (Best)
Markets
2000 Today 2015 2000 Today 2015 2000 Today 2015Manufacturing 5 5 5 2 2 2 3 2 2Engineering 5 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2S l Ch i
Americas
atio
n
Supply Chain 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 1 2Customer Sales / Service 4 4 5 - - - - - -Manufacturing - - - 3 3 4 - - -Engineeringng
Loc
a
Engineering - 1 1 4 4 5 - 2 2Supply Chain - - - 3 3 4 - - -Customer Sales / Service - - - 4 4 5 - - -Manufacturing 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 5 5
Europe
fact
urin
Manufacturing 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 5 5Engineering - 2 3 - 2 3 2 4 5Supply Chain 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 5Customer Sales / Service 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5
AsiaPacificM
anuf
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5
76
The Emerson Regionalization Strategy is a Key Component of the Planning Process at each of our Business Units – Global Best Cost and Perfect Execution
-
Perfect ExecutionPerfect Execution –– Key ActionsKey ActionsPerfect ExecutionPerfect Execution –– Key ActionsKey ActionsPerfect Execution Perfect Execution Key ActionsKey ActionsPerfect Execution Perfect Execution Key ActionsKey Actions● Global Vice President of Profit Planning and Perfect Execution
Bob Sharp – Reports to Ed Monser
● Integration of Perfect Execution principles into the Profit Planning process
● Increasing collaboration with customers and suppliers in an g ppintegrated sales and operations planning process
● Supply Chain lead time integrated into the new product development processdevelopment process
● Regional alignment of sales, manufacturing, and the supply base for better supply chain integration and shorter lead timesL t i id t i t ti f dd d● Leverage enterprise wide system integration for added operational efficiency
● In delivering this strategy, we also significantly improve our risk iti hil t ki d t f E ’ i t t iposition, while taking advantage of Emerson’s investment in
global scale and infrastructure
77
-
We Will Focus on Acquisitions and Divestitures We Will Focus on Acquisitions and Divestitures That Align With Our Value Creation StrategyThat Align With Our Value Creation StrategyWe Will Focus on Acquisitions and Divestitures We Will Focus on Acquisitions and Divestitures That Align With Our Value Creation StrategyThat Align With Our Value Creation Strategy
$29Sales ($B) ~$28.5B
That Align With Our Value Creation StrategyThat Align With Our Value Creation StrategyThat Align With Our Value Creation StrategyThat Align With Our Value Creation Strategy
Portfolio
$25
$27Portfolio
Management
I t l• Strong Cash
Generation$24.4B
2012-2015 Target: 3-5% ~$27.4B
$21
$23Internal
StrategicInvestments
Emerging Markets
Mature
Generation• Strategic Capital
Allocation• Acquisitions &
Divestitures• $2 $3B Acquisitions
$17
$19Markets • $2-$3B Acquisitions
• $2-$2.5B Divestitures
$13
$15
$112012 2015F
78
-
Creating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating LongCreating Long TermTerm Value at Emerson:Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson: Value at Emerson: Still ValidStill ValidShare
RepurchaseProfit
Growth
ROTCEBIT Margin
14 - 18+%Drives EPS
$5BAcquisitions
ROTCTarget 15 - 25%
14 - 18+%OP Margin15 - 19+%
EPS 10 - 13% CAGR
Operating Capital Efficiency• Trade Working Capital –
Underlying Sales
Growth
-
Operating Capital Efficiency DrivesOperating Capital Efficiency DrivesSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsOperating Capital Efficiency DrivesOperating Capital Efficiency DrivesSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and ReturnsSignificantly Higher Cash Flow and Returns
Average Trade Working Capital % to Sales
$4.0B $4.3B$4.5B $4.0B
Long Term Targets
$3.6B ~$4.3B
17.9% 19.0% 16.8% 16.7% 17.5%
$4.0B
-
20122012--2015F Cash Sources & Uses2015F Cash Sources & Uses20122012--2015F Cash Sources & Uses2015F Cash Sources & Uses
100%
20122012 2015F Cash Sources & Uses2015F Cash Sources & Uses20122012 2015F Cash Sources & Uses2015F Cash Sources & Uses
$11B $11B
Dividends$4B80% 36%
We will return ~58% of cash to
our
Operating Cash Flow
$11B
Share Repurchases$2-$3B
40%
60% ~22%our
shareholders
CapEx
Acquisitions$2-$3B
20%
40%~22%
p$2B
0%Cash Sources
2012-2015FCash Uses2012-2015F
20%
Note: Does not reflect divestitures of $2.0B - $2.5B in revenue 81
-
Continuously Repositioning the Business and Continuously Repositioning the Business and EndEnd--Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000Continuously Repositioning the Business and Continuously Repositioning the Business and EndEnd--Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000EndEnd Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000EndEnd Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000Market Portfolio: Emerson Since 2000● Consolidated sales increased at 4% CAGR● Profitability increased at both the Gross Profit Level (+4.4 pts) and y ( p )
at the Operating Profit* Level (+1.4 pts)● Acquired 85 Companies ($6.1B Annual Sales) and Divested 26
Companies ($2 6B Annual Sales)Companies ($2.6B Annual Sales)● International Sales Expanded from 38% to 59% of total Emerson
sales● Actively repositioned our portfolio of businesses into Higher
Growth and More Profitable Markets– Exited the Motors and Appliance components businessespp p
– Built out the Network Power Systems platform
– Evaluating potential sale of Embedded Computing & Power business which would improve margins by ~50 bps but reduce sales by ~$1 4Bwhich would improve margins by ~50 bps, but reduce sales by ~$1.4B in 2014
82
-
20002000--2012 Continuous Portfolio Management2012 Continuous Portfolio Management20002000--2012 Continuous Portfolio Management2012 Continuous Portfolio Management20002000 2012 Continuous Portfolio Management 2012 Continuous Portfolio Management 20002000 2012 Continuous Portfolio Management 2012 Continuous Portfolio Management Acquisitions
Appliance & ToolsCommercial & Residential
Solutions 8%
ClimateTechnologies
Appliance & Tools22%
Industrial
ClimateTechnologies
15%
85 Companies
IndustrialAutomation
Technologies16%
Network
Industrial Automation
21%
p$6.1B of Annual Sales
22%
Network Power21%
Network Power25%26 Companies
$2 6B f A l S lProcess
Management19%
21%Process
Management31%
$2.6B of Annual Sales
2000
19%
Divestitures2012
83
-
Embedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power Profile2012 Segment Sales2012 Segment Sales2012 Segment Sales2012 Segment Sales
Industrial / Medical / Test &
Embedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power ProfileEmbedded Computing & Power ProfileProductsProductsProductsProducts
35%
12%
ComputingMeasurement
Embedded Computers
Processing Boards
AC-DC Power Supplies
53%Component Interfaces
DC-DC Converters
Telecom / Mobile
($M) 2012
Financial Financial HighlightsHighlightsFinancial Financial HighlightsHighlights Sales by GeographySales by GeographySales by GeographySales by GeographyUnited States
& Canada
CommunicationsInterfaces Converters Mobile
($M) 2012Sales $1,389Adjusted EBITDA $102
% of Sales 7.3%
23%
14%58%
AsiaPacific
% of Sales 7.3%EBIT $14% of Sales 1.0%
14%
5%
58%Europe
Latin America 84
-
Lower Growth Environment Will Also Affect Lower Growth Environment Will Also Affect Business Group Growth Rates Through This Business Group Growth Rates Through This Current CycleCurrent Cycle
Lower Growth Environment Will Also Affect Lower Growth Environment Will Also Affect Business Group Growth Rates Through This Business Group Growth Rates Through This Current CycleCurrent CycleCurrent CycleCurrent CycleCurrent CycleCurrent Cycle
C i l &
2012-2015F Growth
Commercial & Residential Solutions
Climate Technologies 5-7%
4-6%
Industrial Automation 2-4%
Process Management
Network Power 5-7%
6-8%
2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
3 - 5%
Process Management
Emerson Growth Targets
6 8%
Growth Through 2015 Will be Lower Due to Slower, Choppy Global Economic Environment
3 5%Emerson Growth Targets
85
-
Emerson’s Acquisition Spending 2005Emerson’s Acquisition Spending 2005 –– 2015F2015FEmerson’s Acquisition Spending 2005Emerson’s Acquisition Spending 2005 –– 2015F2015FEmerson s Acquisition Spending 2005 Emerson s Acquisition Spending 2005 2015F2015FEmerson s Acquisition Spending 2005 Emerson s Acquisition Spending 2005 2015F2015FAcquisition Spending by Year$4
$B
$3.0 $3
$2.0-$3 0
$2$3.0
$0.5
$0.8
$0.4 $0.6
$1.0
$0.2 $0.2
$1$0.5-$0.7
$02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2012-
2015F
In the 2012-2015F Period We Continue to Focus on Small to MediumIn the 2012 2015F Period We Continue to Focus on Small to Medium Size Bolt-On Acquisitions to Strengthen Our Current Platforms
– Don’t Anticipate Anything Big in 201386
-
Our Acquisition Efforts Will Be Tailored to Our Acquisition Efforts Will Be Tailored to Strengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business PlatformsOur Acquisition Efforts Will Be Tailored to Our Acquisition Efforts Will Be Tailored to Strengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business PlatformsStrengthening Our Business Platforms
Core Adjacent Geography Opportunistic Technology
Process Management Network Power et o o eSystems IndustrialAutomation Climate Technologies Commercial & Residential Solutions
Process Management and Industrial Automation Have Significant
Residential Solutions
g gOpportunities to Continue to Grow Their Platforms into Global Franchises – We Plan to Focus our Acquisition Activities in These Two Businesses,
but All Businesses are Looking for Opportunities87
-
2013 Outlook2013 Outlook –– Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook2013 Outlook –– Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook 2013 Outlook Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value2013 Outlook 2013 Outlook Key Highlights to Drive ValueKey Highlights to Drive Value● Global Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) is Forecasted to Grow
Only 3-5% in 2013, but this could be optimistic● This will lead to a 2-5% Underlying Sales* Growth in 2013,
with minimal acquisitions in plan● Positive order trends suggest several of our businesses –gg
Process Management, Climate Technologies, Commercial & Residential Solutions – Should Experience Solid Underlying Growth
● Another Record Year for Profit Margins is expected – as we expect all time highs in Gross and Operating Profit Margins
● Significant Cash Flow Improvement is expected to occur –● Significant Cash Flow Improvement is expected to occur producing an incremental gain of $200-$300M in Free Cash Flow*, after a weak Fiscal 2012
88
-
Fiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial ExpectationsFiscal 2013 Financial Expectations
Operational Performance 2013E DeltaPerformance
20122013E Delta
Sales $24.4B $25.0 - $25.6B 2% - 5%
GP Margin 40.0% ~40.5% ~50 bps
^
GP Margin 40.0% 40.5% 50 bps
OP Margin* 17.7% 17.8% - 17.9% 10-20 bps
EBIT* $3.9B ~$4.1B ~5%
% of Sales* 16.1% 16.2% - 16.3% 10-20 bps
Operating Cash Flow $3.1B ~$3.35B ~9%
Free Cash Flow* $2.4B ~$2.65B ~10%
EPS $3.39 $3.53-$3.63 4% - 7%
ROTC 19.4% ~20% ~60 bps
89^2012 Operational Performance*: Excluding goodwill impairment of $592M pretax or $0.72 per share in 2012.
Remember: We Still Expect 70-80% of 2013 EPS Growth in the First Half
-
Creating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson in the Value at Emerson in the NearNear--Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentCreating Long Creating Long Term Term Value at Emerson in the Value at Emerson in the NearNear--Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentNearNear Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth EnvironmentNearNear Term with a Lower Growth EnvironmentTerm with a Lower Growth Environment
Share RepurchaseProfit
Lower Sales Growth Will Slightly Dampen Our Traditional
EPS and ROTC Targets
ROTC
RepurchaseProfitGrowth
EPS and ROTC Targets
Acquisitions
Target 18 - 22%EBIT Margin~17.5%
OP Margin~19%
Drives EPS 7 - 9% CAGR
Operating Capital Efficiency• Trade Working Capital –
-
We Must Focus on Pockets of Growth in Order to We Must Focus on Pockets of Growth in Order to Drive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyWe Must Focus on Pockets of Growth in Order to We Must Focus on Pockets of Growth in Order to Drive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing EconomyDrive Strong Results in a Slowing Economy
SalesGrowth
• Due to the slow economic environment underlying sales growth target has been revised to 3-5% for 2012-2015F.
• Positioning to capture pockets of growth in emerging and
Margin Improvement
3-5%
• Strong track record of continuous margin improvement. • Technology investments and Perfect Execution strategy
• Positioning to capture pockets of growth in emerging and mature markets.
~17.5% EBIT ~19% OP
Acquisitions • Plan to spend $2-3B in acquisitions in the next three
years
• Technology investments and Perfect Execution strategy will help drive higher levels of profitability.
Share
cqu s t o s$2-3B
• Plan to spend $2-3B in share repurchase in the next three
years. • Focus will be on bolt-on strategic acquisitions that
enhance business platforms.
Repurchase$2-3B
years.