0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Long Boom

Smart Recovery

Terms of Trade

Ring of Fire

New Entrants

Up-skilling

Broadening

Pathways

Reserve

111,000 77,000 69,000

89,000

109,000

80,000 44,000 64,000

66,000 68,000

57,000 66,000

Demand for QualificationsTotal demand for qualifications will be 236,000, but possibly as much as 277,000 over the period 2011-12 to 2016-17. Under the Smart Recovery scenario, a third of demand will be for higher education qualifications with the remaining two-thirds for VET qualifications.

Qualification Level Number

Post Graduate 23,000

Bachelor degree 54,000

Advanced Diploma/Diploma 34,000

Certificate IV 29,000

Certificate III 63,000

Certificate II 29,000

Certificate I 4,000

Total 236,000

Total Demand for Qualifications, 2011-12 to 2016-17 Total Demand for Qualifications by level, 2011-12 to 2016-17

Skills for AllThe introduction of Skills for All has resulted in a 43% increase in enrolments. The majority of this increase has been at Certificate I and II level (24,600 or 55.7%) and amongst private providers (23,100 or 52.3%). To date government investment under Skills for All has broadly aligned with the Commission’s previous projections of industry demand for qualifications.

8,400

11,800

2,900 1,000

16,200

3,500

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

CertI / II

CertIII / IV

Diploma& Above

Private Providers TAFE SA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Projected Demand for VET Qualifications in the Five Years to 2015-16

Skills for All Enrolments, 2012-13

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Increase in Enrolments under Skills for All, 2011-12 to 2012-13 Distribution of Projected Demand and Skills for All Enrolments across Occupation Groups

The Participation ChallengeA labour force participation rate of 64.5% in 2024-25 is considered to be the minimum rate required, based on the Commission’s modelling of demand for qualifications, to ensure the availability of labour does not constrain economic activity. To achieve this rate of participation, both male and female participation rates will need to increase, particularly within prime working ages.

Labour force participation rate, South Australia, 1996-97 to 2024-25 Percentage Point increase required in Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group

Female

Male

0.0

1.02.03.04.05.06.0

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

7.08.09.0

10.011.012.0

60.0%

60.5%

61.0%

61.5%

62.0%

62.5%

63.0%

63.5%

64.0%

64.5%

65.0%

1996-9

7

1998-9

9

2000-0

1

2002-0

3

2004-0

5

2006-0

7

2008-0

9

2012-1

3

2010-1

1

2014-1

5

2016-1

7

2018-1

9

2020-2

1

2022-2

3

2024-2

5

Skills for Jobs 2013Highlights

The Commission will monitor:

• The policy discourse over the next year on TAFE SA’s transition as a large, efficient and quality provider delivering essential skills and training requirements for the State in a fully contestable market.The South Australian VET System, Vol 1, P24

• Skills for All as it continues to fundamentally change the publicly funded Vocational Education and Training system.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – Skills for All, Vol 1, P37

• The approach taken by the Department of Further Education, Employment, Science and Technology to modify the Funded Training List.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – Funded Training List, Vol 1, P40

• The implementation of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, with a particularly focus on the likely future workforce needs of the Disability and Care sectors and issues related to workforce development, skills and qualifications acquisition and utilisation.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – The Participation Challenge, Vol 1, P69

• The impact of changes to Government policy on access for adults to the South Australian Certificate of Education within the State schooling system.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – The Participation Challenge, Vol 1, P72

• The efficiency of public expenditure within the Vocational Education and Training System.Executive Summary, Vol 1, P7

• Any changes to Higher Education policy from the Commonwealth Government and the implications for skills development in South Australia.Executive Summary, Vol 1, P7

The Commission will investigate:

• Whether the Vocational Education and Training system is adequately servicing industry demand for qualifications within the State.Results of the Modelling, Vol 1, P19

• How better connections can be achieved between post-school education and the labour market, in particular how the system can better build the Adaptive Capacity of our workplaces and workforces while recognising that national Training Packages are based on the development of skills for a particular occupation.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – Building Adaptive Capacity, Vol 1, P56

• The opportunity to further develop Adelaide as a Learning City, creating a State wide emphasis on life-long learning underpinned by pathways and partnerships between education sectors.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – A State of Learning, Vol 1, P61

Skills for Jobs 2013The Training and Skills Commission’s Forward Agenda 2014The recommendations and policy discussions contained within the Training and Skills Commission’s Five-Year Workforce Development Plan Skills for Jobs 2013 represents the Commission’s forward agenda and the platform for extensive stakeholder consultation in 2014.

The Commission will promote:

• The current policy settings on VET in Schools.The Commission’s view of the South Australian VET Sector – VET in Schools, Vol 1, P28

• Access to, and the expansion of, Learner Support Services and the Building Family Opportunities programs.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – The Participation Challenge, Vol 1, P75

• The expansion of Careers Services and information that assists students undertaking publicly funded training to be better matched to appropriate employment or training pathways.The Commission’s Policy Agenda – The Participation Challenge, Vol 1, P48

• Investment in, and access to, Vocational Education and Training as well as Adult Community Education.Training and Skills Development Act 2008 – Section 10 Functions of the Commission

• Policies that assist in the sustainability and capacity of Registered Training Organisations.Executive Summary, Vol 1, P6

The Commission will action:

• Additional regional consultations and prioritise a stronger regional presence to better understand the needs of industry within our regions.Regional Profiles Overview, Vol 2, P72

• Working with the State Government to address the decline in commencements of traineeship and apprenticeships through joint activities that involve industry and enterprises.South Australia’s Vocational Educational Education System, Vol 1, P36

• A review of the Traineeship and Apprenticeship Pathways Schedule to ensure its relevance to employers and the Vocational Education and Training system.Executive Summary, Vol 1, P7

• Specific consultation activity with bi-partite industry bodies, Regional Development Australia networks, continuing Industry Skills Boards, national Industry Skills Councils, business groups, Unions and other industry and peak associations to inform the Commission’s advice to the Minister for Employment, Higher Education and Skills.Introduction from the Chair, Vol 1, P2

• Actively reporting to the Minister for Employment, Higher Education and Skills on quality issues as they arise through stakeholder engagement.Introduction from the Chair, Vol 1, P2

Recommendation 1: A comprehensive analysis of potential market failures (regional and remote areas, thin markets, specialist courses) and the demands on the VET sector in these markets is undertaken to support the better understanding of the role of the public provider.

Recommendation 2: The State Government urgently examine funding to TAFE SA with a view to providing more transparent support through the transition period to a fully contestable VET environment. The review should identify and allocate an appropriate level of funding to the unique nature of the public provider whilst not protecting the entire breadth of service delivery where there is sufficient private market activity to promote innovation and efficiency.

Recommendation 3: Careers Services be expanded to provide tailored, South Australian specific employment information before individuals undertake publicly funded training to ensure students are matched with appropriate employment or pathway focused training.

Recommendation 4: More timely and comprehensive data be collated to better ascertain the quality outcomes of Skills for All, including completions and destination information that can be subjected to thorough analysis.

Recommendation 5: A network of workforce planning practitioners who can provide advice focusing on training and other responses (such as attraction, retention and job re-design) should form a critical part of Skills for All.

Recommendation 6: The immersion of industry into the process of redesigning the approach to changing the Funded Training List and the approach be guided on the principles of productivity and labour force participation.

Recommendation 7: The framework for reviewing courses on the Funded Training List consider: the needs of the South Australian and local economies, whether publicly funded training is the appropriate mechanism to address the need, market failures and that qualifications support an individual’s access to further education and training or employment.

Recommendation 8: The building of a capacity management system that allows an allocation of funded training positions to high quality providers based on an open and transparent set of criteria that has the flexibility to ensure innovation in delivery methods, business certainty for providers, capacity throughout the year and the transferability of preferred provider status based on measurable outcomes.

Recommendation 9: Stopping the universality of the Funded Training List so that regional localities, contracts of training, Group Training Organisations, and school based programs will be treated differently.

Recommendation 10: A banded funding model reflective of the relative benefit to the South Australian economy, individuals and enterprise be implemented.

Recommendation 11: The State Government take a leadership role in the support and development of a more coherent structure of qualifications that supports changing labour market demands.

Recommendation 12: The embedding of Learner Support Services in the training system, with support for students with complex needs becoming a fundamental part of ensuring the demand driven VET training system meets the needs of disadvantaged learners.

Recommendation 13: Long-term, cross-departmental funding is supported to continue the Building Family Opportunities program throughout South Australia.

Recommendations to the Minister

This document complements the Training and Skills Commission’s Five-Year Workforce Development Plan Skills for Jobs 2013 which can be accessed

electronically at www.tasc.sa.gov.au