2012July13FEMA Natl Sitrep

7/31/2019 2012July13FEMA Natl Sitrep

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This information is provided as a public service. This report is published daily by the FEMA National Watch Center (NWC).Information presented is considered public information and may be distributed or copied. For questions or comments, contact

the NWC at [email protected]. Media inquiries should be directed to FEMA News Desk (available 24/7): E-

mail: [email protected].

Significant National Weather:

Midwest

Showers and thunderstorms,associated with a cold front, are

expected across the region throughthis evening. Severe thunderstormsare possible over the Middle and

Upper Mississippi Valleys.

Damaging winds and hail are theprimary threats.

Northeast

Most of the region will be dry todaywith the exception of a few pockets

of showers and thunderstorms over

New England this afternoon. Isolatedhail and strong winds are the primary

threats for northern and central Maine tonight.

West

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in northern Washington and spread eastward into western

Montana this afternoon; isolated strong winds and hail are possible with these storms. A slight risk ofsevere thunderstorms is forecast across parts of the Northern Rockies, with large hail and locally

damaging winds being the primary threats. The southwestern U.S. will be cooler through this weekend.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to produce heavy rains, up to 1-2 inches per hour through tonight.

Flash flooding is possible across the Desert Southwest. Dry thunderstorms and lightning are possibleacross portions of the Intermountain West. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of California,

Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming are in effect through this evening.

South

The weak stationary front over the southern states will continue to produce scattered showers and

thunderstorms stretching from southeast Texas to the Carolinas today. Flash flooding is possible againacross southeastern Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. (NOAA/NWS, SPC, and HPC)

National Situation ReportAs of 5:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, July 13, 2012


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!La Nias Influenced Extreme Weather and Climate Changes In 2011On July 10, 2012, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) released the State of the Climate

Reportfor 2011. According to the report, back to back La

Nina events occurred in 2011. Although 2011 was the

coolest year on record since 2008, temperatures remainedabove the 30 year average, and 2011 was among the top 15

warmest years since records began in the late 19th century.

The two La Nias during 2011, characterized by cooler-than-average water temperatures in the eastern equatorial

Pacific, affected regional climates and influenced many of

the worlds significant weather events throughout the year.

These included historic droughts in East Africa, thesouthern United States and northern Mexico. La Nia

conditions contributed to an above-average tropical cyclone

season in the North Atlantic hurricane basin and a below-average season in the Eastern North Pacific.

Other climate changes noted in the climate report include rapid changes in the Arctic sea ice, with sea

ice decreases reaching the smallest extent on record. Loss of mass on glaciers around the world, with

loss from Canadian Arctic glaciers and ice caps reaching the greatest losses since measurements beganin 2002.

Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon

dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise.

Ozone levels in the Artic were the at lowest ozoneconcentrations since records began in 1979. The low

ozone levels increase UV radiation levels at the Arctic

surface.

Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content from

the surface to 2,300 feet were record high. Along with

increasing temperatures, ocean salinity trends continue.Oceans were saltier than average in areas of high

evaporation, including the western and central tropical

Pacific, and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including the eastern tropical South

Pacific. This suggests that precipitation is increasing in already rainy areas and evaporation isintensifying in drier locations. For more information visit:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120710_stateoftheclimatereport.html


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Tropical Activity:Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Emilia:

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Emilia islocated about 1,100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip

of Baja California, Mexico. Emilia is moving toward the westnear 14 mph. This motion will continue for the next couple of

days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 70 mph

with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected and

Emilia could become a tropical depression on Saturday.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

from the center.

Tropical Storm Fabio:As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was

located about 485 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. This

general motion is expected to continue for the next couple ofdays. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph

with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during

the next 48 hours and Fabio could become a hurricane bySaturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to

115 miles from the center.

Central Pacific:

Area 1:

An area of weak low pressure (remnants of Daniel) is located450 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Conditions are not

favorable for re-development. There is a LOW chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming atropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected throughSaturday evening.

Western Pacific: No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. territories.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong: Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 (minor)

level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 (strong) level occurred. Space weather for the next 24hours is predicted to be minor: Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 (minor) level are expected. Radio

blackouts reaching the R1 (minor) level are expected.

Declaration ActivityEffective July 12, Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-4068-DR was approved for the state of Florida as a

result of flooding from Tropical Storm Debby June 23, 2012 and continuing. The amendment addsHillsborough and Taylor counties for Individual Assistance, Manatee County for Individual Assistance

(already designated for Public Assistance), Collier, Lee, Levy, Madison, Putnam, Santa Rosa, and

Taylor counties for Public Assistance, and Bradford and Duval counties for Public Assistance (alreadydesignated for Individual Assistance).

National Fire Activity as of July 12, 2012The National Wildland Fire Preparedness Level remains at Level 4. On Thursday, July 12, 2012, initial

wildland fire attack activity was moderate with 269 new fires including 12 new large fires reported.


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Photo Credit: InciWeb Mill Fire

Eleven large fires were contained, resulting in 38 uncontained large fires. One National Incident

Management Organizations (NIMOs), four Type 1 Incident Management Teams (IMTs) and six

Type 2 IMTs are currently assigned to incidents in the Northern/Southern Plains, Central Great Basin,

Northern Intermountain, Northern Rockies and Northern California.

Six MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel have been activated to support wildland fire

suppression operations. The MAFFS are from the 302nd Airlift Wing, Colorado Springs (U.S. Air ForceReserve), the 146th Airlift Wing, Channel Islands (California Air National Guard), and the 153rd Airlift

Wing, Cheyenne (Wyoming Air National Guard). The aircraft are operating out of Hill Air Force Base,

UT, and Boise, ID. (NIFC)

Wildfires Western U.S.California Wildfires

Mill Fire, Colusa CountyThe fire began on July 7, and is located 10 mileswest of Stonyford, CA (pop. 149) (approximately

97 miles northwest of Sacramento, CA) in

northwestern Colusa County in the MendocinoNational Forest.

The fire has burned 18,985 (+2,985) acres and is

40% (+5) contained. The estimated date ofcontainment is July 20. Five structures weredestroyed, and 113 residences and 5 other buildings

are threatened. There are 1,582 (+265) personnel

with Type 2 IMT supporting fire suppressionefforts.

Robbers Fire, Placer County

The fire began on July 11, and is located in Iowa Hill near Shirttail Canyon (an unincorporated area

between Colfax [pop. 1,963] and Foresthill [pop. 1,483]) in Placer County, approximately 70 miles

northeast of Sacramento, CA. The fire has burned 800 (+600) acres and is 10 %( +10) contained. No

homes have been destroyed; however, 150 homes are threatened. Mandatory evacuations are in progressfor at least 80 residents. One shelter is open with no occupants in Forest Hill, CA. There are 1,821

personnel with a Type 1 IMT supporting fire efforts.

State and Local Response

The California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) Inland Region is in the SEOC providing

support to Placer County. The Placer County EOC is activated at Level II (partial activation). TheColusa County EOC is not activated.

Federal Response

The Region IX RRCC is not activated. The Regional Watch Center is at Watch/Steady State and ismonitoring the situation. There have been no requests for FEMA Assistance.

Oregon Wildfires

Miller Homestead, Harney County

The fire began on July 8, and is located 1/2 miles west of Frenchglen (pop. 12) Harney County (pop.

7,609); approximately 183 miles southeast of Bend, OR. The fire has burned 110,000 acres and is 10%

contained. The estimated date of containment is July 18. These Residents in the south Harney Lake areaare asked and encouraged to leave their residences and retreat to the north immediately. Residents in the

community of Frenchglen are asked to be on standby and prepared to leave their residence at a

moments notice. The American Red Cross has set up an evacuation center in Burns, OR to assistevacuees. Local highway closures in effect. There are 254 personnel with a Type 2 IMT supporting fire

efforts.


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Long Draw Wildfire, Malheur County

The fire originated on July 8, and is located near Basque (pop. 10) in Malheur County (pop. 31,615);

approximately 80 miles southwest of Boise, ID in southeastern Oregon. The fire has burned 455,029acres with 50% containment. Numerous range structures have been burned and several head of cattle

have been lost due to fire activity. An unknown number of structures were reported burned and 290

structures are threatened. There are 308 personnel with a Type 2 IMT supporting fire efforts. No reportsof fatalities or injuries, and no evacuations or shelters are open at this time.

State and Local Response

Oregon Office of Emergency Management Emergency Coordination Center (ECC) is at normal

operations.

Federal Response

The Region X RRCC is not activated. Bothell MOC is at Watch/Steady State and is monitoring the

situation. No request for FEMA Assistance.(Region X; InciWeb)

Regional Response Coordination Center Activation Levels

Region RRCC Regional Watch Center

I Watch/Steady State Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Watch/Steady State 24/7

III Watch/Steady State 24/7

IV Watch/Steady State 24/7

V Watch/Steady State 24/7

VI Watch/Steady State Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Watch/Steady State 24/7

VIII Level III (M-F 8:00 a.m. 5:00 p.m. MDT) Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Watch/Steady State 24/7

X Watch/Steady State Bothell MOC (24/7)

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments

Number of Counties/Tribes

Region State EventIA/PA

Requested Ongoing Complete(Estimated)

Start / End Date

III VA Severe Storm PA 4 4 0Begin: 7/11End: TBD

III WV Severe Storm PA 55 11 0Began: 7/10End: TBD


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IV FL Flooding TS Debby

IA 28 (+2) 2 26(+3)Began: 6/29End: TBD

PA 36 2 34Began: 6/29End: TBD

V MN Flooding IA5 Counties& 1 Tribe

0 0Begin: 7/12End: TBD

V WIFlooding

PA

3 Counties

& 1 Tribe 0 0

Begin: 7/17

End: TBD

VI NM

Little Bear Wild Fire

Bonita Lake area

Burn Scar

PA 1 1 0Began: 7/9End: TBD

VIII MT Ash Creek Wildfires PA2 Counties

1 Tribe0 0

Began: 7/16End: TBD

VIII COHigh Park and Waldo

FiresPA 3 3 0

Began: 7/5End: 7/20

Incident Management Assistance Teams

National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

BLUE(East)

COWHITE

(Central)RED

(West)

Regional Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I VT Region V Region IX-1

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-2

Region III WV Region VI-2 Region X

Region IV-1 Region VII

Region IV-2 FL Region VIII CO

= Available / Mission Capable= Available / Partially Mission Capable

= Assigned/Deployed= Out of Service


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Open Field Office & Designated Counties as of 7/13/2012

2012July13FEMA Natl Sitrep

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