2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT Multifamily ... · 2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT...

February 10, 2012

2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

Multifamily Market Dynamics

Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research, Mortgage Bankers Association

Multifamily Rental in the Broader Housing Market

• MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book

• MBA Analysis of American Housing Survey

• MBA Analysis of Census Population Projections

• MBA Analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey

• Reports from MBA’s Research Institute for Housing America

• MBA Analysis of Housing Starts Data

© 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Structure Size, 2009

3

Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.


Composition of renter households, by building size, 2009

4


Thousands of households


Composition of Renter Households, by Building Size, 2009

5




Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009

6




Changes in Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, & Homeownership Rate

7

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.


Projected population change, by age, 2010 –2015 & 2015 – 2020

8

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau


Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, by Age of Householder, 2000 to 2010

9


Less than 35 years old Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to 64 Age 65 and older


Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners and Renters Since 1992

10

Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, “The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying,” Research Institute for Housing America (2011).


Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since 1992

11

Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, “The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying,” Research Institute for Housing America (2011).


Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates

12

Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A. Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).


Percent of Tenants “Probably” or “Definitely” Intend to Renew

13

Source: Kingsley Associates.


Multifamily Fundamentals

• MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book

• MBA Analysis of REIS Data

• MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data

• MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings

• MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data

• MBA Analysis of Moody’s, NCREIF and Green Street Property Price Data


Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & Occupancy Rates, by Property Type by Quarter

15

Source: Reis, Inc.© 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Net Operating Income Among NCREIF Properties

16

Source: NCREIF.


Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009

17

Source: Equity Residential.

Q3 2009 to Q3 2010 Q3 2010 to Q3 2011


Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million & Greater

18

Source: Real Capital Analytics.


Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates, Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater

19

Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.


Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100)

20

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF.


Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2007Q3 = 100)

21

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF and Dow Jones.


Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($thousands)

22

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF.


Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate, Thousands of Units

23

Source: Census Bureau.


Multifamily Finance

• MBA’s Annual Report on Multifamily Lending

• MBA’s Annual Origination Summation

• MBA’s Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index

• MBA’s Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding

• MBA’s Annual Report on Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturity Volumes

• MBA’s Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates


Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities at Constant Maturity, Monthly Averages of Daily Data (percent)

25

Source: Federal Reserve Board.


Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)

26

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing.


Mortgage Bankers Multifamily & Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes (index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right)

27

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.


Index of Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers’ Originations, by Investor Group (2001 average quarter = 100)

28

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.


Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac & Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)

29

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Lending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases.


Multifamily Lending in 2010, by Lender Average Loan Size

30

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.


Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)

31

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds.


Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)

32

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding.


Multifamily and Other Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Among Major Investor

33


Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO)

Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including in process of foreclosure)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)


Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily Mortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31, 2010

34

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.


Contact Information & MBA Resources

Jamie WoodwellVice President

Commercial Real Estate ResearchMortgage Bankers Association

1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036

[email protected]

MBA homepage: www.mortgagebankers.org

MBA research page: www.mortgagebankers.org/research

Research Institute for Housing America:http://www.housingamerica.org

MBA Newslink:http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink


mailto:[email protected]

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/research

http://www.housingamerica.org/

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink

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