2012 Mobile Trends - Forrester · 2012 Mobile Trends JULIE A. ASK, VICE ... Airline example based...

2012 Mobile Trends

JULIE A. ASK, VICE PRESIDENT & PRINCIPAL ANALYST

JEFFREY S. HAMMOND, PRINCIPAL ANALYST

May 30, 2012

Jeffrey S. HammondApplication Development &

Delivery Professionals

Mobile development

Julie A. AskeBusiness & Channel Strategy

Professionals

Mobile strategy

We see four key categories of mobile trends

1. Consumer expectations will be both high

and conflicted.

2. Mobile is a key business strategy enabler.

3. Success in the mobile ecosystem will elude

incumbents and embrace newcomers.

4. Emerging technologies need standards and

scale to succeed.

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3


and conflicted.





scale to succeed.


Mobile services are maturingL

evel

of

mo

bile s

op

his

ticati

on

High

Low

Evolution of services over time

Nothing

Multichannel

Cross-

channel

Mobile-

unique

Advanced

contextual

Consistency

Enhancement

Breakthrough

Simplification

“How” >> “what” — beginning in 2012

Success In Mobile

What

• Availability of applications

and Web

• Benchmarking features,

content, functionality

• Use of mobile throughout

workstreams (e.g., sales,

production) or consumer

life cycle

How

• Convenience

• Ease of use

• Simplicity and quickness

associated with completing

tasks

- 2 days

• Change reservation

• Reserve seat

• View reservations

- 2h

• Check gate

• Departure time

• Lounge access

• Upgrade

Flight

• Arrival time

• Food order

• Movies

• Wi-Fi

+ 2h

• Ground

transportation

• Lost luggage

• Navigation

+ 2 days

• Customer service

• Mileage status

• Reward travel

• Upcoming reservations

Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page content

Airline example based on user time

Forrester defines context as

“the sum total of what your customer

has told you and is experiencing at

their moment of engagement.”

Context includes:

Situation: the current location, altitude, and

speed the customer is experiencing.

Preferences: the history and personal decisions

the customer has shared with you.

Attitudes: the feelings or emotions implied by

the customer’s actions and logistics.

Think of this less as “Big Brother” watching . . .

Source: Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos)

. . . and more like “Big Mother” helping

Privacy will be the cost of convenience.


and conflicted.





scale to succeed.


MobileThirty-four percent of smartphone owners have owned one for less than a year, 80% for less than three years.

TabletsTablet sales will eclipse laptop sales by 2015. Many retailers are seeing 5% to 10% of traffic from iPads alone. Today.


Are you ready for this new world? How do you stack up?

You don’t have a mobile strategy.

Your mobile services are a subset of your PC experience.

Your mobile team consists of one person or less.

You have not optimized your website for mobile.

You are still pursuing one-off projects.

You are not working closely with your technology counterparts.

Some obvious signs you are behind


Maybe you have benchmarked your services versus your competition? And you feel good?

Those who will triumph . . .

… are working on infrastructure,

staffing, and competencies that are

hard to see unless you look closely.

Flight- 2 days + 2h- 2h + 2 days


• Reserve seat

• View reservations

• Check gate

• Departure time

• Lounge access

• Upgrade

• Arrival time

• Food order

• Movies

• Wi-Fi

• Ground

transportation

• Lost luggage

• Navigation


• Mileage status

• Reward travel


Let’s go back to the airline example

Airline example based on user time


• Mileage status

• Reward travel


Traveler mobile tasks

What does actualizing this experience take?

Flight- 2 days + 2h- 2h + 2 days

• Book reservation


• Request upgrade

• Reserve seat

• Check gate

• Departure time

• Lounge access

• Upgrade

• Arrival time

• Food order

• Movies

• Wi-Fi

• Baggage carousel

• Ground transportation

• Lost luggage

• Navigation

Flight reservation processes

Flight timeline

Travel business

processes

Customer loyalty processes

Flight processes

Baggage handling processes

Platforms empower ecosystems of customer

experiences

Socialnetworks

AftermarketSuppliersCustomer

support

Plug-insRepeatpurchase

Maintenance

Analytics

Upsell/x-sell

Customer

Transactional relationships Customer context

Platform

Platform

Platform

If this is what you are spending annually . . .L

evel

of

mo

bile s

op

his

ticati

on

High

Low


Nothing

Multichannel

Cross-

channel

Mobile-

unique

Advanced

contextual

< $200K

$500K- $1M

$1M- $2M

. . . you should worry.

Leaders are spending at these levels L

evel

of

mo

bile s

op

his

ticati

on

High

Low


Nothing

Multichannel

Cross-

channel

Mobile-

unique

Advanced

contextual

$2M- $3M

$3M- $10M

$5M- $50M+

Building businesses


and conflicted.





scale to succeed.


Who were the forces in mobile five years ago?


How about for enterprise development?


Many of these companies still play very

vital roles, but the power has shifted to

upstarts and Internet giants.

The importance of the open Web will grow

Who should you pay attention to now?


The operating system bloodbath will continue


Who can afford to cede the market?


and conflicted.





scale to succeed.


HTML5 makes progress but is not a panacea

What works well

2D vector graphics

Audio/video

CSS media queries

Touch events

Web storage

Geolocation

Web messaging

Web Workers

What doesn’t

3D graphics/WebGL

A/V capture

Media capture

Form inputs

Speech

Index DB

WebRTC

WebSockets


A simple guide for technology decisions

Think about the workloads you are automating . . .

Native Web

Middleware

Hybrid

Performance

Cost

Agility

Experience

. . . but be hindered by network limitations

• Only in 2o11 did we see >50% of devices on 3G networks, but 4G adoption will move faster.

• Capacity alone isn’t the fix —congestion is deadly.

• Wi-Fi will be necessary for fat multimedia . . . reliable access at home, but where else?

NFC will fail to live up to its hype . . .

• About 40 million NFC devices shipped in

2011; we may see 80 million to 100 million

by the end of 2012 . . . and NFC as a

standard feature in smartphones in 2013.

• Timing of “critical mass” or 20% adoption is

not likely until 2014/2015.

• Consumers won’t care — it’s just another

“connective” technology.

. . . and will go well beyond wallets

PaymentTransport card

Access

control Connectivity

Service

discoveryDebit card

Summary

Consumers will expect more contextual experiences but will

simultaneously be concerned about privacy and security.

Mobile strategies will need to go beyond phones and will require a

scalable approach, as differentiation will lie more in “how simple”

it is rather than “what” you offer.

The devices, platforms, and players are still in flux; there’s value in

technology that gives you flexibility.

There’s no single “silver bullet” development approach; focus on

workloads and creating “useful” experiences.

Jeffrey S. [email protected]

@jhammond

+ 1 617 613 6164

Julie A. [email protected]

@julieask

+1 415 355 6002

Thank you

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

2012 Mobile Trends - Forrester · 2012 Mobile Trends JULIE A. ASK, VICE ... Airline example based...

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