2012. 4. 27 - Teletogether · 2012 crude oil prices expected at $110~120 reflecting steady actual...
Transcript of 2012. 4. 27 - Teletogether · 2012 crude oil prices expected at $110~120 reflecting steady actual...
2012. 4. 27
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements with respect
to financial conditions, results of operations and business of SK Innovation,
and plans and objectives of the management of SK Innovation.
Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about
SK Innovation’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks,
uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or
performance of SK Innovation to be materially different from any future
results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking
statements.
Financial results for 1Q12 are subject to change according to the outside
independent auditors’ review.
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1Q12 Financial Performance
1Q12 Divisional Analysis
Q&A
Appendix
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(Unit: bn KRW) 1Q11 4Q11 1Q12 QoQ YoY
Sales 17,068.4 16,931.1 18,851.2 11% 10%
Operating Profit 1,192.0 336.7 925.7 175% -22%
EBITDA 1,324.1 472.4 1,045.7 125% -21%
Non-Operating
Profit 11.2 -6.6 -26.0 N/A N/A
Pre-Tax Income 1,203.2 330.1 899.7 173% -25%
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(Unit: bn KRW) 1Q11 4Q11 1Q12 QoQ YoY
Net Interest
Expense -84.6 -56.9 -59.8 N/A N/A
Net F/X Gains 64.5 -7.5 -33.6 N/A N/A
Equity-Method
Earnings 29.8 75.6 68.4 -10% 130%
Others 1.5 -17.8 -1.0 N/A N/A
Net Non-
Operating Profit 11.2 -6.6 -26.0 N/A N/A
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(Unit: bn KRW) End of 2011 End of 1Q12 YoY(amount)
Assets 35,026.8 36,146.3 1,119.5
- Cash & Cash Equivalents 4,567.1 4,289.1 -278.0
Liabilities 20,195.2 20,997.4 802.2
- Debt 8,853.3 8,839.5 -13.8
(Net Debt) (4,286.2) (4,550.4) (264.2)
Shareholders’ Equity 14,831.6 15,148.9 317.3
- Paid-in Capital 468.6 468.6 0
Debt/Equity 136% 139% 3%p
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(Unit: bn KRW) SK
Innovation
SK
Energy
SK
Global Chemical
SK
Lubricants Total
Sales 292.6 14,379.7 3,441.5 737.4 18,851.2
Operating Profit 69.0 574.8 181.9 100.0 925.7
Non-Operating Profit 17.8 -49.8 -7.2 13.2 -26.0
Pre-tax Income 86.8 525.0 174.7 113.2 899.7
※ Excluding inter-company transactions
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Gasoline margins improved from tightened global supply on Asian regular maintenance and low utilization/rationalization of European refineries
Despite regional capacity increase, Diesel/Kerosene margins maintained steady levels owing to power/industrial demand
Healthy refining margins sustained owing to steady global demand
1Q Crude Oil : Strong 1Q Refining Margin : Improved
Source : JBC, Company
Dubai Crude Oil Diesel/HSFO
Gasoline/HSFO
($/Bbl)
Continued strong oil prices from tight global crude oil stocks due to geopolitical risks in Iran and M.E. production troubles, including Syria, Yemen
2012 crude oil prices expected at $110~120 reflecting
steady actual demand in the Asian region
U$/B (average) 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 QoQ
Dubai 78.1 73.9 84.3 100.5 110.7 107.1 106.5 116.1 9.6
Gasoline/HSFO 16.9 14.6 20.1 22.2 22.1 21.3 12.3 21.4 9.1
Diesel/HSFO 18.9 18.4 22.5 28.5 29.8 24.2 22.4 16.8 -5.6
0
50
100
150
08-03 08-09 09-03 09-09 10-03 10-09 11-03 11-09 12-03
0
20
40
60
80
08-03 08-09 09-03 09-09 10-03 10-09 11-03 11-09 12-03
($/Bbl)
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Operating profit increase from inventory gains and dissipation of one-off expenses
Higher Gasoline demand from U.S. driving season and steady regional petroleum product demand expected
Regular maintenance schedule
- HOU 3/19~4/25(38 days)
1Q12 Analysis Outlook
Dissipation of pension plan-related one-off expenses
Increased inventory-related gains on rising oil prices
715.4
97.4 254.1
174.7
574.8
12,242.2 12,012.9 12,589.6 12,556.2
14,379.7
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Operating Profit Sales (OP : Bn KRW) (Sales : Bn KRW)
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Source : ICIS, Platts, Company
(US$/Ton)
Ethylene spreads improved due to tight supply from
regional regular maintenance
Weak polymer spreads due to higher feedstock cost and
sluggish downstream demand
Despite weak downstream demand including
polyester, PX spreads remained steady on regular
maintenance and facility troubles in the region
1Q Olefin Market Conditions 1Q Aromatic Market Conditions
U$/Ton 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 QoQ
Naphtha 992 965 888 1,020 +14.9%
Ethylene-
Naph 299 185 190 213 +12.1%
PE-Naph 378 434 433 342 -21.0%
PX-Naph 518 662 569 570 +0.2%
SM-Naph 415 498 411 413 +0.5% 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
'10 1Q '10 2Q '10 3Q '10 4Q '11 1Q '11 2Q '11 3Q '11 4Q '12 Jan. '12 Feb. '12 Mar.
Ethylene-Naph PE-Naph
SM-Naph PX-Naph
Improved base chemicals spreads on regional regular maintenance and facility troubles
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OP increase from improved base chemicals spreads and dissipation of one-off expenses
242.9
132.9
306.3
92.2
181.9
3,891.4 4,186.3
3,621.3 3,356.1 3,441.5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Operating Profit Sales
Olefin spreads expected to improve on expectations of
easing of Chinese monetary policies
PX prices/spreads expected to weaken on low PTA
utilization from delayed recovery of Chinese polyester
demand
1Q12 Analysis Outlook
Improved base chemicals prices/spreads due to
reduced supply from regular maintenance and troubles
at regional units
Dissipation of the previous quarter’s one-off expenses
related to pension plan amendment
(OP : Bn KRW) (Sales : Bn KRW)
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160.1 131.4 120.4
82.4 126.6
277.8 245.2 260.9 252.0 251.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Operating Profit Sales
Main factor for operating profit increase
- Dissipation of previous quarter’s one-off
impairment loss
2012 Exploration Plans
- Colombia CPO-4 and SSJN-5 blocks
Higher operating profits from the dissipation of one-off expenses
1Q Average Daily Production Major Issues
1,000
BOE/D Total
Oil
Portion
Peru
88
Vietnam
15-1
Peru
56
Yemen
LNG
1Q12 63 29% 21 4 24 12
4Q11 63 30% 22 5 26 10
(bn KRW)
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Slight increase in OP on inventory-related gains despite temporary base oil margin decline
Temporary decline in base oil margins on production cost increase from rising oil prices and off-season demand decrease
Slight increase in operating profits owing to inventory-related gains at overseas subsidiaries, despite lower base oil margins
1Q12 Analysis Outlook
Base oil margins expected to improve due to the effect of passing on higher crude oil prices
87.3
130.6
198.5
91.3 100.0
611.1
672.9 694.3 730.8 737.4
0
250
500
750
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Operating Profit Sales
(OP : Bn KRW) (Sales : Bn KRW)
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1. Utilization Rate – Petroleum/Petrochemical Plants
2. Product Sales – Petroleum/Petrochemical
3. Maintenance Schedule
Petrochemical
Petroleum
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Unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
NCC 72% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 63% 96% 99% 100% 98% 100%
PE 94% 100% 97% 98% 98% 86% 97% 77% 95% 95% 95% 100% 100%
PP 93% 100% 100% 98% 100% 98% 100% 81% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100%
PX 98% 98% 74% 86% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
CDU 82% 72% 69% 71% 74% 80% 75% 83% 81% 78% 76% 80% 78%
Ulsan 94% 80% 77% 83% 88% 91% 87% 96% 93% 88% 91% 92% 88%
Incheon 42% 47% 44% 35% 30% 44% 39% 44% 46% 47% 30% 36% 46%
HOU 100% 73% 98% 100% 100% 98% 99% 99% 81% 100% 99% 97% 85%
#1 RFCC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 83% 74% 100% 98% 100%
#2 RFCC 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 69% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100%
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(Unit : kBbl)
(Unit : kTon)
Product Domestic Export Sub-Total Product Domestic Export Sub-Total Product Domestic Export Sub-Total
Gasoline 6,168 5,202 11,370 Gasoline 6,672 6,229 12,901 Gasoline 6,203 6,774 12,977
Kerosene 3,303 288 3,591 Kerosene 2,273 264 2,537 Kerosene 2,164 324 2,488
Diesel 11,408 16,873 28,281 Diesel 12,568 17,812 30,380 Diesel 10,656 17,627 28,283
Fuel Oil 8,271 4,448 12,719 Fuel Oil 3,889 3,847 7,736 Fuel Oil 4,870 3,686 8,556
Jet Oil 451 6,859 7,310 Jet Oil 484 7,369 7,853 Jet Oil 414 9,296 9,710
Other 5,453 5,199 10,652 Other 6,716 8,285 15,001 Other 6,077 4,886 10,963
Total 35,054 38,869 73,923 Total 32,602 43,806 76,408 Total 30,384 42,593 72,977
4Q11 1Q121Q11
Product Domestic Export Sub-Total Product Domestic Export Sub-Total Product Domestic Export Sub-Total
Ethylene 42 58 100 Ethylene 38 45 83 Ethylene 37 48 85
PX 58 450 508 PX 60 582 642 PX 71 299 370
SM 38 218 256 SM 4 228 232 SM 19 122 141
PE/PP 106 126 232 PE/PP 65 110 175 PE/PP 75 86 161
BTX 101 938 1,039 BTX 5 789 794 BTX 68 674 742
Other 313 376 689 Other 281 327 608 Other 319 348 667
Total 658 2,166 2,824 Total 453 2,081 2,534 Total 589 1,577 2,166
1Q11 4Q11 1Q12
※ Numbers exclude sales between SK Energy, SK Global Chemical and SK Lubricants
Petrochemical
Petroleum
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Petrochemical
Petroleum
Capacity 2010 2011 2012
Olefins #1 NCC (200 kTon/yr) - - -
#2 NCC (660 kTon/yr) 10/4~11/4 (32 days) - -
Polymers
#1 PE (220 kTon/yr) 10/12~11/4 (24 days) - -
#2 PE (190 kTon/yr) 10/20~11/5 (17 days) - -
#1 PP (183 kTon/yr) 10/18~11/2 (16 days) - -
#2 PP (193 kTon/yr) 10/20~11/4 (16 days) - -
EPDM (20 kTon/yr) 10/18~11/26 (40 days) - Oct.~Nov.(29 days)
Aromatics
#2 PX (348 kTon/yr) - - 10/4~11/2(30 days)
NRC (28.0 MB/D) - - 10/4~11/2(30 days)
#1 PX (410 kTon/yr) - - -
NAC (45.0 MB/D) - - -
NRP (45.0 MB/D) 6/21~7/25 (35 days) - 3/20~4/24(36 days)
Lubricants
Site Capacity (b/d) 2010 2011 2012
Ulsan CLX
#1 CDU (60,000) 5/11~5/26 (15 days) 9/15~10/11 (27 days) -
#2 CDU (110,000) 5/12~5/23 (12 days) - 10/11~11/9 (30 days)
#3 CDU (170,000) 6/28~7/26 (29 days) - -
#4 CDU (240,000) - 3/10~3/17 (8 days) 3/20~4/22 (34 days)
#5 CDU (260,000) - 5/8~6/8 (32 days) -
HOU (45,000) - 3/7~3/22 (16 days) 3/19~4/25 (38 days)
#1 RFCC (57,000) - 5/9~6/6 (29 days) -
#2 RFCC (70,000) 6/28~8/3 (37 days) - -
Incheon CLX
#1 CDU (75,000) - - -
#2 CDU (200,000) - 6/13~7/24 (42 days) -
Capacity (b/d) 2010 2011 2012
Ulsan # 1 LBO (12,300) - 3/7 ~ 3/27 (21 days) 3/19~4/25 (38 days)
Ulsan # 2 LBO (12,000) - - 3/22~4/24 (34 days)
DUMAI LBO (9,000) 4/27 ~ 5/9 (13 days) 10/8 ~ 10/29 (22 days)