2011 Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference

Election Trends and Campaign Planning Workshop

Why Are We Here?

• Going to the voters for transit funding is a necessary financing tactic for many communities

• Transportation ballot measures are overwhelmingly successful

• Success requires research, strategy and support

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

States with Transportation Ballot Measures2000-2010

LEGENDSuccessful TransportationMeasuresNo Successful TransportationMeasuresNo Transportation Measures

Transit Appears on the Ballot Every Year• More transportation

measures are placed on the ballot in election years

• The willingness of communities to go to the ballot was affected by the recession in 2009

• But 2010 had more measures than any year since monitoring began in 2000

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010Total

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

3214

4117

56

2449

1848

11

57

367

Total Number of Measures

Public Transportation Measures Win at the Polls

• 70% Approval Rate for Transportation Measures

• Twice the Approval Rate of All Ballot Measures

• Success Across Region, Population, Party Affiliation

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

68%

46%51%

71%

82%83%

65%66%

77%73%

77%

70%

Percentage of Transit Ballot Measures Approved

2000-2010Public Transportation Finance Measures

• 309 finance measures on ballots between 2000-2010

• 84% of all transportation measures are finance-related

• Sales tax increases or renewals are most common type

• Bonds are most successful with 84% approval—but are far more common on statewide ballots than local and regional

• Property tax measures are more successful than sales tax measures, with 81% approved vs. 59%

Property Tax26%

Sales tax39%

Bonds11%

Vehicle Fee 3%

Advisory or Non-binding

3% Other18%

Types of Ballot Measures 2000-2010

• Property Tax vs. Sales Tax– Sales tax measures more

common than property tax measures over last decade

– In 2010, property tax measures are more than 3x as prolific as sales tax measures

– Property tax measures are more successful than sales tax measures, with 81% approved vs. 59%

Types of Measures in 2010

Property Tax53%

Sales tax14%

Bonds9%

Vehicle/Hotel Fee Increase

14%

Advisory or Nonbind-

ing5%

Other5%

Types of Ballot Measures in 2010

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

LEGEND

Win

Loss

Mixed Bag

Who Went to the Ballot in 2010?

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

2010 Overall ResultsElection Day

Wins:23Losses: 8Total:31Success Rate: 74%

2010 Wins:44Losses: 13Total:57Success Rate: 77%

November 2, 2010Nearly $500 million approved by voters84% of measures were finance-related

2010This year alone, voters approved over $1 billion

Red vs. BlueTransportation Ballot Measures Cross the Partisan Divide

RED• 42% of measures (13) were in

regions that voted primarily for Republican candidates.

• 69% of measures (9) were approved.

• Slightly fewer measures on ballots in right-leaning regions, but voters support them at a rate on par with the 10-year average.

Blue• 58% of measures (18) were in

regions that voted primarily for Democratic candidates.

• 77% of measures (14) were approved.

• Slightly more likely to go to the ballot with transportation issues; approval rate above average for the day.

31 Transportation Measures on the November 2 Ballot

Ballot Trends

• Highly Specific Ballot Language• Growing Use of Sales Tax for Infrastructure• Plan & Project Funding Approval Measures• Aggressive Public Education & Outreach• Multiple Elections• Advisory Measures• More Non Sales or Property Tax Finance

Measures

Do Transit Measures Always Win the First Time?

Why Measures Fail the First Time• Too much money—The amount is just

too high for one measure• Not the right mix of projects—Trying

to appease too many may end up pleasing no one at all

• Consequences aren’t apparent—Sometimes voters just haven’t been properly educated on what they will lose

• Not enough support—Not having a strong opposition doesn’t negate the need for a strong coalition of support

• Not enough research and strategy—A clear plan for success, research, polling and voter education can go a long way.

When at First You Don’t Succeed…• St. Louis—Lost in 2008, won in 2010 with

a stronger coalition and new GOTV strategy

• Seattle—Lost in 2007, won in 2008 after cutting “roads” portion of “Roads & Transit” proposition

• Kalamazoo, MI—Countywide measure failed in 2008, two measures won in 2009 (small countywide & additional city-only measure)

• Grand Rapids, MI—Lost millage increase in 2009, won in 2011 with greater urban support

• Mahoning County, OH—Lost in Spring 2008, but won in November 2008 when voters realized entire system was at risk

Tough Times for TransitThe Impact of a Struggling Economy on Transportation Campaigns

Impact at Local Level• Home foreclosures and

unemployment ↑, property and sales tax revenue ↓

• Communities forced to go to ballot just to prevent service cuts—harder to get enough $ for system growth

• Budget gaps increased by limits on use of federal funding for operating

State Support Declines• States struggle to balance

budgets—transit funding grabbed to fill the gaps

• States provide authorization for regional or local ballot measures (e.g., GA and CA)

May 3, 2011A Good Day for Transit

Success at the ballot box is not limited to November ballots, federal election years, thriving economies or certain types of measures:• 100% Success Rate on May 3• 8 Measures on the ballot in

communities in Michigan and Ohio– 1 sales tax renewal– 3 millage renewals– 2 millage increases

Hallmarks of Successful CampaignsEarly Steps…

• Clear & Specific— "What's in it for me?” “What are we ‘buying’?”

• Messengers & Champions—well-known, public or private sector figures can be valuable assets

• Polling and Research—Identify voters’ values and concerns; level of funding they can support

• Fundraising—start early!• Know the Local Politics – Manage

timing, reputations, other issues• Coordination – Plan for smooth

collaboration with the agency, coalition and campaign

…Keep Going

• Strong Coalition—organize support from like-minded groups, grassroots and the business sector—they will help celebrate your success!

• Respond to Critics—Be prepared for criticism and address it directly

• Stay on Message—Don’t let criticisms distract voters

• Incorporate New Tools & Tactics – New Media, Aggressive Field Operation

• It’s a Campaign. Run it like one.

Most Important Thingswhen planning your next campaign…

• “Know When to Say No”• “Focus on Wants & Needs of Citizens, Not Transit

Agency.”• “Craft a realistic budget that best meets your

campaign objectives.”• “Field is not an a la carte strategy.”• “Start Your Campaign NOW.”• “Research, Information, Analysis.”