2011 Stock Market Outlook_show
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Transcript of 2011 Stock Market Outlook_show
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2011 STOCK MARKETOUTLOOK
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
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QUICK REVIEW 2010: PSEI
The PSEI returned37.62% for the full year,roughly 60% of 2009srecord 63% gains.
This is the fourth best yearover the last decade
2009 = 63.0%
2006 = 42.3%
2003 = 41.6%
Market returns over 40%every three (3) years
Ranked 3rd in ASEAN 6
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QUICK REVIEW 2010:VOLUME/VALUE
Total volumeturnover reached423.9 B; net of block sales,399.6 B
Total value
turnover reachedphp1.187 T; netof block sales,php971.3B
December tradessaw an above
average flow toFinancials,Holding Firms,Services, Mining& Oil andProperty
Overall,Industrials got
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QUICK REVIEW 2010: FOREIGNVALUENet Foreign fund wasnegative in 4 of the 12months (July-August andNovember-December)
Sales in the last twomonths of the year hardlydented the long-term
picture, accounting for only6.8% of the aggregate netpurchases through October
Daily average netpurchases for the yearamounted to php220.3M
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THE BROAD ECONOMY: GDP(quarterly, yoy)
GDP in January toSeptember at 7.5%returning to pre-crisis/globalrecession levels
Worst-case scenarioof q4 at 1.5% pace,full year GDPaverage remainswithin 5.0%-6.0%target range (dotted
line) an unlikely event
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(source: WWW.CENSUS.GOV.PH)
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THE BROAD ECONOMY: GDP vs. ASEAN 6
RP ranked 3rd behindSingapore and Thailand in terms of real GDP after Q3,2010.
In 2009, Singapore,Malaysia and Thailandregistered negativeGDP growth
RPs 7.4% (through
Q3) betters the 2007pace of 7.1%
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THE BROAD ECONOMY: Inflation
Annual inflation overthe last 10 years havebeen erratic;
Slowest pace in 2007(2.8%), fastest in crisis
year 2008 (9.3%)
2010 sees a slightuptick from 2009 levels,but have remainedwithin targets set by oureconomic managers
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THE BROAD ECONOMY: Interest Rates
Philippine Lending Rates(all maturities) hasconsistently dropped overthe last 10 years;
Remains high comparedto ASEAN 6 peers, behindIndonesias 13.3%
Thailand and Malaysiahave significantly lowerrates for comparableinstruments at a littleover 5.0%
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PSEI Outlook: Technical Condition
Market @ 2ndextendedconsolidation band,4,050-4,200, withpositive bias
1st major pullback line@ 4,125
1st major breakoutpoint @ 4,220
1st consolidation bandcoincided with electionperiod with the Greece
debt-crisis coming intoplay in the later partof the range, lendingnegative volatility
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PSEI Outlook: Daily RSI (14)
RSI on rising trendindicating increasedpositive momentum
Coincident RSI topswith PSEI peaks(>4,000) accompaniedby higher RSI levels,[marked as pts. 1, 2,and 3] positing aprobable positivebreak of 4,000-mark
Less encouraging aresuggestions from the
weekly and monthlycharts, with topsunsupported
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PSEI Outlook: Daily MACD (12,6,9)
MACD broke the signal lineas the PSEI broke its ownnear-term downtrend line,settling at 4,166.04
Histogram shows anincreasing positive gapbetween the MACD and thesignal line, likewise, the line
has crossed over to positiveterritory
Despite the breakout fromthe downtrend, the indexremains within a month-long consolidation range
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PSEI Outlook: STO (10,3,3)
Market at overboughtterritory, 6 days afterrising from oversoldarea and registering abullish crossover of the trigger line;
STO has reached>95, which on twoprior instances,preceded a sell-off ranging from -4.3% to-18.3% over the next
1 to 3 weeks.
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PSEI Outlook: Daily MFI (14)
the Index fell in line withthe MFI suggestions,following a 2-weekdivergence,
Index break of downtrendfrom November 4thsupported by similarbreak of a longer-termdowntrend in the MFI
Breakout line insufficientto provide reliableguidance on the strengthand sustainability of thecurrent direction
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STOCK PICKS: PE Bargains
Six (6) countersacross the HoldingFirm, Property, andIndustrial Sectorspose bargainopporutunities
based on their 5-yrEPS growth;
Price Targetcomputed as
projected 2011 EPSx end-2010 PE
PEG of
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STOCK PICK: MPI
Price rose above10-, 50- and 150pdEMAs
10pdEMA is poisedto break above the50pdEMA,
suggesting a furtherupside momentum
Only the STOsuggests a possiblepullback as it hoversin overboughtterritory and draws apossible break belowits trigger line
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STOCK PICK: AGI
Price has met strongresistance atphp13.00 level;
MACD (2nd chartfrom top) on freshbreak of the signalline, moving intopositive territory,suggesting a build-upof strength
STO requires a near-term pullback, whichshould open a BUYwindow @ php11.20
Volume movementsstable with slightpick-up bias
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STOCK PICK: RLC
Price remains under a2-month downtrendbut is poised tobreakout off thephp16.40 resistance
10pdEMA suggestingan oncoming breakabove the 50pdEMA,with price consistentlyholding php15.40support
MACD draws samepossibility as the EMA
STO keeps break overtrigger line, still freshfrom oversold area
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STOCK PICK: DMC
Positive but gradualprice action, breakinga slight downwardbias, even as it keepsabove all EMAs
MACD still positive,build-up still slow butpositive
STO in overboughtterritory, positing abreak below triggerline, suggesting anear-term slide
AccDist Line stronglyshows accumulativebias
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STOCK PICK: MEG
Support building up atthe php2.38-2.44 range,with Major Support stillat php2.32
Critical price level toreverse positive moodat php2.10
STO overbought,possible near-term slidethat should hold support
MACD gradually pickingup momentum
Distributive pressurelast week of 2010 notmaking a dent on theaccumulative bias
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STOCK PICK: FPH
Price has movedfrom negative trendto consolidativebias betweenphp59.50 php63.00
MACD, STO on evenkeel, supporting thesideways price bias
Distributivepressure stillslightly dominant
Entry window opensas price slidestowards support line
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2010 Positives
Consumer & Business sentiments high
No political risks
Low interest ratesContained Inflation
Increased investments flow
Sustained and stronger global recoveries
Sustained improvement in economicfundamentals
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2010 Risks
European crisis shifting to Spain,Portugal
China monetary tightening to containinflation
Governments revenue efforts
Unforeseen events
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