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Contact Information John Mankowski, NPLCC Coordinator john_mankowski@fws.gov 360-534-9330

Mary Mahaffy, NPLCC Science Coordinator mary_mahaffy@fws.gov 360-753-7763

510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 102, Lacey, WA 98503-1263 Please refer to NPLCC website for the most updated information: www.northpacificlcc.org

The North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) supports conservation efforts and sustainable resource management in light of climate change and related stressors. To achieve this goal, the NPLCC supports projects that provide foundational information and science-support tools across the North Pacific region. In 2011, the NPLCC awarded over $800,000 to eleven projects. Projects are led by federal agencies, universities, and non-governmental organizations and many rely on collaboration with multiple partners.

Projects can be categorized into four main themes:

NPLLC Projects Synopses2011

1. Projections of Change across Landscapes 2. Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning3. Information Synthesis and Dissemination

4. Modeling Species and Habitat Distributions

Five projects are new studies, while the other six projects build upon work already underway in their respective subject matter. Research associated with three projects is also supported by neighboring LCCs: two by the Great Northern LCC and one by the California LCC. A common theme through many of these projects is using landscape-level modeling based on science for the development of on-line, interactive tools intended to help managers make the best decisions for species and habitat conservation.

In addition to these eleven projects, $32,000 was awarded to the University of Alaska Southeast and the University of Washington to synthesize existing climate change research and tools. As coordination and communication are key to effective science-based management across this large region, an additional $31,000 will be used to support workshops for NPLCC stakeholders. These workshops will bring together Canadian and American scientists and natural resource managers to facilitate information exchange regarding climate adaptation for species and habitats of common concern.

Photograph taken by Ken Morrish

Photograph taken by Sue L. Powell

Photograph taken by Sue L. Powell

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Projections of Change across Landscapes

Hydrology of Climate Change and Wetlands

In the Pacific Northwest, predicted changes in precipitation and temperatures due to climate change are expected to lead to decreased snowpack, earlier spring peak streamflows, decreased summer streamflows, and soil moisture stress. This project will model specific hydrological effects for diverse wetlands, including wet meadows, small ponds, riparian areas, and forest wetlands for 2020, 2040, and 2080. Combining existing datasets and results of climate models will allow a different perspective on changes in aquatic habitats. Products will be available to help resource managers assess wetland changes at landscape levels and to develop climate adaptation strategies for species that are dependent on wetland habitats.

Project Lead: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

Partners: Western Washington University, National Park Service, EcoAdapt

Soil Maps to Identify Drought-Sensitive Areas

Predictions for climate change in the North Pacific region call for precipitation increasing in winter and spring, and decreasing in summer. These alterations will increase the chances for water stress of vegetation, pest outbreaks, and wildfire. An examination of soil characteristics, such as soil water availability, can help scientists and managers predict how forest cover will respond to climate changes. This project will provide detailed soil maps, vegetation models, and a forecast map that shows where trees are most likely to be affected by precipitation and temperature changes. Managers will be able to use these tools to better understand where and why trees may be more vulnerable and to respond with mitigation strategies.

Project Lead: Conservation Biology Institute http://consbio.org/

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3

Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Humboldt Bay

The Humboldt Bay National Wildlife Refuge is a protected bay and wetland area on the northern California coast. The Refuge is home to many native plant species and is an important stopover for migratory shorebirds. Rising temperatures due to climate change are predicted to melt glacial ice and induce sea-level rise (SLR), which will threaten this low-elevation refuge. Scientists will study how SLR affects salt marsh habitats and will collect data on elevation, plant communities, and tidal range. Products from this project will include raw data and elevation and vegetation maps that are important tools managers can use for monitoring ecosystem responses, including wildlife species and abundance to SLR and storms. Research is also funded by the California LCC at several other locations.

Project Lead: USGS Western Ecological Research Center http://www.werc.usgs.gov/

A Conservation Priorities Tool for Freshwater and Forests

Projections of Change across Landscapes

Scientists are working to understand climate change while resource managers and policymakers are attempting to plan for its effects on the landscape. This project will develop a dynamic Decision Support Tool that will facilitate the sharing of climate and natural resource data. Diverse datasets will be compiled, standardized, and made available to every user to help visualize the potential effects of climate change on freshwater and forest ecosystems throughout the NPLCC region. The tool will expand resource conservation by encouraging communication between scientists, policymakers, managers, and landowners. Ultimately, the tool will be expanded to include other geographic areas and additional terrestrial species.

Project Lead: Ecotrust http://www.ecotrust.org/

Partners: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Earth Systems Institute

Photo courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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4

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning

Case Studies in Landscape Vulnerability Assessments

As a result of climate change, the complex landscapes of the Willamette Basin and British Columbia Protected Areas will likely experience changes in the distributions of plant and wildlife species. This project will assess the vulnerability of these species to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature. Researchers will work with mangers, landowners, and conservation practitioners to explore how projected changes in climate, wildlife, and vegetation can be used to develop adaptation strategies. The team will hold workshops with stakeholders to interpret the results of the vulnerability assessments and to apply the results to specific management needs. This project will build on complementary studies already underway by the Great Northern LCC.

Project Lead: University of Washington http://depts.washington.edu/landecol/

Partners: The Nature Conservancy, Washington Dept. Fish & Wildlife, National Park Service, National Wildlife Federation

Vulnerability of Nearshore Species and Habitats to Climate Change

Nearshore ecosystems, primarily estuarine habitats and ocean waters to a depth of 200 meters, are undergoing rapid changes including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and habitat loss due to sea-level rise. Effects on nearshore species, such as fish and invertebrates, will vary substantially according to their exposure to these alterations and the species’ physical traits. Scientists will build upon on-going work to predict which species and habitats are at the greatest risk and which climate disturbances are the most potentially harmful. This study will develop a web-based tool to support management decisions and to inform the public of the relative vulnerability of nearshore species and habitats to climate change.

Project Lead: USGS Western Fisheries Research Center http://wfrc.usgs.gov/index.html

Partners: US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Environmental Protection AgencyPhotograph taken by Matt T. Lee

Photograph taken by Matt T. Lee

Photograph taken by USGS Brome McCreary

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5

Regional Conservation in Coastal Rainforests

In 2010, the Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center led a collaborative effort to discuss data discrepancies and information gaps among researchers in British Columbia and Alaska. This project will build on advances made on inventories and data-layer development in this first workshop and present a second cross-boundary workshop. Goals are to develop climate and geographic location (geospatial) datasets that support regional conservation in the coastal temperate rainforests of Southeast Alaska and British Columbia. Further, the workshop will facilitate the development of standardized information, coordination of data sharing, and planning for use of cross-boundary datasets to address critical conservation issues.

Project Lead: Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center http://acrc.alaska.edu/ Partners: University of Alaska Southeast

The nearshore and open ocean environments of the North Pacific region are among the most productive in the world and are predicted to undergo several environmental alterations due to climate change. Physical and biological changes will be widespread and will require an elevated level of coordination and communication among conservation stakeholders and research agencies. National Wildlife Federation will convene 12 expert focus groups for comprehensive, cross-disciplinary discussions of the most up-to-date information on climate change effects and adaptation strategies in coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems across the NPLCC. The focus groups will discuss climate change impacts and information gaps to build on two comprehensive reports that summarize current and future threats to these ecosystems. They will also discuss research needs and potential priorities for marine and freshwater systems impacted by climate change to help inform the NPLCC’s consideration of activities.

Project Lead: National Wildlife Federation http://www.nwf.org/

Marine & Coastal and Freshwater Ecosystem Focus Groups

Information Synthesis and Dissemination

Photograph taken by Matt T. Lee

Photograph taken by Sue L. Powell

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6

Modeling Species and Habitat Distributions

North Pacific Birds and Climate Change

Existing information from previous studies about birds, including work done in 2010 by the California LCC, is available for much of the NPLCC area. The goal of this project is to integrate the information to simulate current and future abundance and distribution of birds for three climate change scenarios in the Pacific Northwest: low, medium, and high temperature increases. Project results will provide interactive tools and sample outcomes that are essential for conservation planning. The most important environmental influences of current and future distribution and abundance of birds will be identified. Additionally, to help prioritize management areas and activities, this project will identify which species and populations are at greatest risk.

Project Lead: PRBO Conservation Science http://www.prbo.org/cms/index.php

Partners: American Bird Conservancy, Klamath Bird Observatory

Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity

As human population and urban growth increase, wildlife movement is inhibited by fragmentation of their natural habitat. Changes in climate are expected to increase habitat fragmentation due to changing vegetation, water availability, and other conditions. Effective wildlife habitat management will include planning for connective corridors for species to move between different patches of habitat. The project will use sophisticated modeling software to identify areas with high potential for isolation of wildlife populations and low potential for wildlife movement in and out of habitat patches. Project goals include creation of an interactive web-mapping application to help forest land managers identify and prioritize wildlife corridors for species that use subalpine and mountain conifer habitat.

Project Lead: University of Montana http://web.dbs.umt.edu/npflcc/

Photograph taken by Matt T. Lee

Photograph taken by Ali Paulson

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Modeling Species and Habitat Distributions

The Washington Connected Landscapes Project

Warmer temperatures resulting from climate change may affect wildlife species by forcing them to adjust their ranges in order to remain in areas with desirable climate and habitat characteristics. The Washington Connected Landscapes Project studies how wildlife movement may be inhibited by a lack of connected habitats, due mainly to habitat fragmentation. This project, co-funded by the Great Northern LCC, will develop mapping tools that analyze habitat connectivity for suites of species. The project also includes tools to plan for climate adaptation by mapping corridors that follow climatic gradients, allowing resource managers to prioritize conservation and restoration projects. Mapping tools will be tested and refined in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.

Project Lead: The Nature Conservancy http://www.nature.org/

Partners: Washington Wildlife Habitat Connectivity Working Group

Photograph taken by Matt T. Lee

Photographs without credit are public domain.