2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

© 2011, Blue Rock Station

Preparing for the Post-Fossil Fuel Economy

Jay Warmke Blue Rock Station


This program is a registered educational program with the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES . The content within the program is not created or endorsed by the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES nor should the content be construed as an approval of any product, building method, or service. Information on the specific content can be addressed at the conclusion on the program, by the Registered Provider.

Credit earned for completing this program will automatically be submitted to the Columbus Green Building Forum. Completion certificates can be obtained by contacting the Provider directly.

Columbus Green Building Forum


Learning Objectives:1. Participants will learn how the evolution of fuel over the past century has led to building practices as well as how cities and society has organized itself.2. Participants will be exposed to how these fuel systems (for heating/cooling, electrical, and transportation) will change dramatically over the coming decades.3. Participants will also learn how traditional raw materials used for construction will dramatically increase in cost, if available at all - and what alternatives may arise.4. We will explore how these changes may dramatically impact how buildings are constructed, as well as how society will organize itself (cities, suburbs, green areas, etc).


What is Blue Rock Station?


“Pollution is nothing but the resources we are not harvesting. We allow them to disperse because we've been ignorant of their value.”- R. Buckminster Fuller

What is Blue Rock Station?


The Year is 1911World population, 1.7 billion40,000 Model T's produced, double from

1910


EVERYTHING is about to change AGAIN...

we are entering the

post-petroleum economy

The Year is 2011


The GaiaStatic Century?

Leave her like you found her.


What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet


The bottom line...But w hat about Me?


8 New “Americas”


The Numbers are SO Huge

For Example:US uses 3,741,485,000 MW-h per y

Give everyone a 60 W light bulb and let them use them for 8 hours per day...Add 1,576,800,000 MW-h per y or about 42% of the annual US use


What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out


So, how did we get here?19561974


In One Generation...

1933


What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more.


It is not about running out!• 4% production drop will result

in 177% increase in cost• Estimate 3-10% drop each

year “There will be an average of two-percent

annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”

- VP Dick Cheney


Wonderful world of compounding...Even at half that rate...• 2010 $3.00 per gallon• 2011 x 139% = $4.17• 2012 x 139% = $5.80• 2013 x 139% = $8.06• 2014 x 139% = $11.20• 2015 x 139% = $15.57


What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better


The energy contained in One Barrel of oil contains the equivalent of 25,000 human hours of labor (12 people working 40 hrs per week)Currently 1 barrel = $10025,000 hrs x $8 = $200,000

The Oil Economy


2006


The Electrical GridWorldwide demand

will double over next 40 years


So where is it coming from?


Coal?2.5%60 years


Nuclear?

1977Build one brand new billion-watt nuclear power plant every 1.6 days until the year2050, they will generate only about 8 terawatts.


Natural Gas?


Peak Oil!


So, what's Next? "The Americans will always do the Right Thing…after they have exhausted all the Alternatives."

- Winston Churchill


Green Technology

Solar Wind BioMass Hydro Ocean Power Hydrogen


Wind?• Currently only 2.3% of electricity in US

• 20% by 2030

• Capacity has grown 50% each year


Wind?

• 2010 study shows potential of 37 petawatts annually – 9 times the current electrical consumption


Solar Power? 2010, installed PV

doubled Costs

dropped 30%


Solar Power? US Solar Doubled

again in 2011 69% of

US electricity from solar

by 2050 From Scientific American


So where WILL it come from?

Conserva

tionEffic

iencies

Hydroelect

ric

Fossil Fuels

Renewables


What if we cut Energy in Half?


Green Technology

2007Utility-Scale Wind

Cost of Renewable Energy

Cost of Fossil Fuels


Green Technology

2015Residential Solar

Cost of Renewable Energy

Cost of Fossil Fuels


Green Technology

Cost of Renewable Energy cut in half every 4 years

Moore'sJay's Law


Energy is NOT the Problem


Energy is NOT the Problem

It (the Sun) provides enough energy in one minute to supply the world's energy needs for one year. In one day, it provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years. In fact, "The amount of solar radiation striking the earth over a three-day period is equivalent to the energy stored in all fossil energy sources." - NASA


Ask Yourself...

What will the world look like when energy is free, and everything else is very very expensive?


How will it affect...

Transportation?City Structures?Buildings?The Economy?


Who am I talking about...

The Rich?

Middle Class?The Poor?


Downwardly Mobile...

as globalization begins to level the playing field.


Transportation – Short TermTransition to electric – so all buildings require integration of vehicles as load as well as storage devices


What about Systems

Smart Grid creating peer-to-peer energy systems.

AC or DC or Wireless?Independent versus

municipal systems ($3.5 million for sewers for 200 homes?)


Power Integrated into Everything


Transportation – Long TermRuralification of City Centers?

–City clusters for social interaction and resource conservation

– Rural give up access for space. Will virtual packaging change this?


So What is Virtual Packaging?Already exists on Internet

–Amazon.com or I-tunes– Is local inventory

required?–Virtual Main Street–Cooperative delivery

So how does this change the design of retail/commercial?


What about Virtual Housing?When CGI is cheaper than real... what then?

We live in “fake homes” now, why not take the plunge?


Communal HousingIndependent dwellings contain only what we

need, all other “activity rooms” shared.– Result, larger livable space,

smaller units per person» Entertainment Room» Kitchen» Dining Room» Bedroom» Bathroom» Foyer» Study


Building Materials

He who has the most garbage, wins (cradle to cradle).

Balance energy efficiency with material costs.


Water

Access to water will determine where you live.

– Is Chicago the next great city?


The GaiaStatic Century

Pack out what you Pack in...

“May you live in Interesting Times”

» Chinese Curse


There will be problems...

2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

Technology

Transcript of 2011 expo-post fossil-fuel