2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS...
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Transcript of 2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS...
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2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON
THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS AND
GREATER IMPACTS ON USA COASTS THAN IN 2010 IS STILL PLAUSIBLE
June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011
Dr. Walter Hays,
Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction
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2011 FORECAST
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2011 FORECAST
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AREAS OF CONCERN SHIFT AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES
• EARLY SEASON: Western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean [with USA impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.]
• MID-TO-LATE SEASON: The eastern Gulf and Caribbean [with USA and Canadian impacts from the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas, New England, and the Maratimes.]
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CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS
• The orientation and position of the Azores and Bermuda high-pressure areas in the Atlantic.
• The future state of the ongoing La Niña. [La Niña is starting to weaken, which could have an impact on the westerly wind component in the tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.]
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CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS
• The frequency and amount of dust that accompanies disturbances moving off the African coast. [The presence of dust indicates dry air, which can hinder tropical development in the eastern Atlantic.]
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CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS
• A phenomenon known as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) [Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the warm phase, and warm water is "hurricane fuel.]
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STORM TRACKS OF 2011’s FIRST 9 STORMS: ARLENE -- IRENE
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2011’s FIRST STORM
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
JUNE 30TH
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2011’S TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
FIRST SEVERE WINDSTORM OF ATLANTIC -- GULF OF MEXICO BASIN STRIKES VERACRUZ STATE, MEXICO
Thursday, June 30, 2011
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ARLENE’S PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS
Arlene had an estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb and maximum sustained winds of 100 kph (65 mph).
Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.
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ARLENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO:JUNE 30, 2011
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ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS
Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward for up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.
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ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS
Arlene’s storm surge raised water levels by as much as 1/3 to 1 m (1 to 3 feet) along the immediate coast near and to the north of Cabo Rojo.
Arlene generated 20 cm (8 inches) of rain, which was mostly welcome due to the dry conditions, even though it caused minor flooding and triggered 6 landslides.
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PREPARATION FOR ARLENE
Having anticipated flooding, officials in the states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi and closed schools, mobilized emergency medical units and prepared evacuation shelters.
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DEATHS
Government officials reported 22 deaths.
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2011’s SECOND STORM
TROPICAL STORM BRET
JULY 26TH
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2005’S TROPICAL STORM BRET
Bret moved ashore within 24 hours of forming, and dissipated shortly thereafter
in Veracruz, Mexico
JUNE 28TH, 2005
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2011’s THIRD STORM
TROPICAL STORM CINDY
JUNE 26TH
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2005’S CAT 1 HURRICANE CINDY
Cindy initially formed on July 3rd just east of the Yucatan Peninsula; It made landfall twice, Mexico and Louisiana
JULY 3RD , 2005
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2011’s BRET AND CINDY DIED IN THE ATLANTIC
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2011’s FOURTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM DON
JUNE 27TH
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2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (still developing)
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Tropical Storm Don headed across the Gulf towards the oil-rich Texas coast with a Friday (July 29th) arrival.
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2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (approaching landfall)
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TROPICAL STORM DON’S RAIN BROUGHT SOME,
BUT NOT ENOUGH, RELIEF TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN
TEXAS
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PRECURSSOR TO EMILY: JULY 31st
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2011’s FIFTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM EMILY
AUGUST 1, 2011
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EMILY’S PREDICTED PATH OF AUGUST 1st DID NOT HAPPEN
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FLORIDA WAS SPARED: EMILY: DIED IN ATLANTIC: AUGUST 6st
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Dominican Republic: The approaching storm forced
evacuations to avoid flooding, cancellation of
flights, and closure of government offices.
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EMILY ARRIVED IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH 80 KPH WIND AND RAIN: AUGUST 4
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HAITI: 600,000 LIVING IN TENT CITIES AFTER THE 2010 EARTHQUAKE COULD NOT TAKE EVEN
THE MOST BASIC PRECAUTIONS
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Emily caused floods and damaged hundreds of homes
in HAITI.
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Haiti, which has had an ongoing cholera problem
since the January 19, 2010 earthquake faced even greater problems after Emily’s heavy rainfall.
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Tropical Storm Emily broke apart and became a tropical
depression on August 6th-- no longer a threat to Florida.
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2011’s SIXTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
AUGUST 13TH
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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN: 450 MILES N-NE OF BERMUDA; AUGUST 13rd
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2011’s SEVENTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM GERT
AUGUST 14th
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TROPICAL STORM GERT FORMED NEAR BERMUDA ON AUGUST 15 AND DIED
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Monday, August 15, 2011 marked the start of what is sometimes called the Cape
Verde season, when the most powerful storms tend to be spawned off the coast
of West Africa.
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2011’s EIGHTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
DEVELOPING AS OF AUGUST 17th
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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY’S PATH ENDED ON AUGUST 22ND
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2011’s NINTH STORM
TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FORMED ON AUGUST 20th DEVELOPED INTO FIRST HURRICANE
OF SEASON ON AUGUST 22nd
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE ON AUGUST 21st : TO BE FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE BECOMES FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011: AUG 22
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ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---
• ---caused loss of power for 1 million people, loss of water for 100,000 people, downed trees, damaged homes, forced evacuations and school and office closures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but no deaths,
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(Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---
• ---- posed an immediate threat to the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic for 15 hours, but…
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(Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---
• --- missed Haiti where 600,000 refugees are still living in tents, but exacerbated flooding and mudslides in the northern region where past storms have killed thousands, and
• --- worsened conditions for fighting the cholera epidemic that has already killed some 6,000 people.
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FLOODING: NAGUABO, PR; AUG 22
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FLOODING: PONCE AGOSTO, PR; ZA, PR; AUG 24th
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AUG 23 FORECAST : IRENE BECAME A CAT 3 STORM
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AUG 23: IRENE’S FORECAST HAD A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SOME TIME
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The potential risk is very high, because it would take just a slight shift in the storm track to the west to make a dramatic change in the
economic and health-care impacts of the storm should it make
landfall in a highly populated area.
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Irene may be the catalyst the insurance industry has been
seeking in its quest for across-the-board premium increases,
in what may become the costliest year in history for
global natural disasters.
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EVACUATION UNDERWAY IN NORTH CAROLINA
• As of Wednesday morning (August 24th), Irene intensified to a CAT 3 hurricane, with a high probability of becoming a CAT 4.
• Residents in some parts of North Carolina were advised to evacuate.
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NORTH CAROLINA: EVACUATIONS STARTING FOR REAL; AUGUST 24th
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AUG 24: FORECAST SHOWS EYE OF STORM SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
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AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC
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WHAT TO EXPECT ALL THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND
• Rain--flooding• Wind—damage to homes and
buildings• Storm surge—flooding• Beach erosion and mudslides--
irreversible loss
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AUG 28: IRENE HAD NEW YORK CITY IN ITS SIGHTS
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AUGUST 28: LANDFALLIrene made landfall over New
York’s Coney Island with winds of 100 kph (65 mph) before reaching New York City at 9 A.M. bringing a storm surge
that sent 1 m (3 1/2-ft) of water into New York Harbor.
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GOOD NEWSNew York City’s risk from the wind field decreased significantly when
Hurricane Irene suddenly weakened early on Sunday
morning.
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BAD NEWS Irene Became a Regional and Local Flooding Event With a Mix of Fresh and Salt Water
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IRENE ON SUNDAY, AUGUST 28th
Although Weakened and Downgraded to a Tropical Storm, Irene was still a
Dangerous Storm for Cities Located in Front of and Behind the Storm’s Eye
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Cities in the northeast (e.g., New York City, Long Island, Philadelphia, Trenton, and others) had to face Irene’s storm surge, rain fall, and
New Moon high tides
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WHAT NORTHEAST CITIES FACED
• Storm surge (5-8 ft in NY City), and “new moon” tides (2-3 ft)—, flooding with potential for deaths, especially if people drive through standing water or get trapped in autos or buildings.
• Overflowing/encroaching rivers--