2011 Annual Operating Plan2011 Annual Operating Plan

April 1 Runoff ForecastApril 1 Runoff Forecast

Albuquerque District

DefinitionsDefinitionsNative/Natural Rio Grande water: Water that comes directly from the Rio Grande Basin

San Juan-Chama water: Water that is imported into the Rio Grande Basin from the San Juan Basin through the San Juan-Chama Project

Rio Grande Compact: Agreement between the states of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas that apportions Rio Grande water between the three stateswater between the three states.

Article 7: Section of the Rio Grande Compact that dictates storage in reservoirs. If Rio Grande Project storage is less th 400 000 ft t El h t B tt d C b ll t fthan 400,000 ac-ft at Elephant Butte and Caballo, no storage of Rio Grande water can take place at El Vado except to satisfy Native American needs or as part of the Emergency Drought Water Agreement.

Definitions (cont.)cfs- cubic feet per second (roughly 7.5 gallons/second)

Acre foot = approximately 326,000 gallons or 43,560 cubic feety g

Hydrograph – graph of flow rate per unit time

The District – Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD)

The City – City of Albuquerque now Albuquerque BernalilloThe City – City of Albuquerque now Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA)

NRCS – Natural Resources Conservation Service

Minnow water (supplemental water) – Water leased by Reclamation to meet flow targets specified in the 2003 Biological OpinionBiological Opinion

P&P – Prior & Paramount

What Drives the ProcessWhat Drives the ProcessVolume Forecast from the NRCSBased on snowpack, soil moisture, climate forecast

Choose similar year based on similar volumeActual hydrograph vs. average hydrographCan tweak timing of hydrograph to best match forecastedCan tweak timing of hydrograph to best match forecasted conditions (warm Spring vs. cool Spring)

Inflows/Outflows based on nature and policiespArticle VII restrictionsFlood control and channel capacityTiming of water deliveriesDemand curves from water usersRequirements of the 2003 Biological Opinion

R i t b d i fl / tflReservoir storage based on inflow/outflow

Operated By:

Dams:

Reclamation Corps Water Supply Recreation

Flood Control

Sediment Control

HERON

EL VADO

ABIQUIU

NAMBE FALLS

GALISTEO

COCHITI

JEMEZ CANYON

ELEPHANT BUTTE

2010: The Year in Review

Heron ReservoirHeron Reservoir1200

800900

0200400600800

1000

0100200300400500600700800

Inflow Actual Inflow Outflow Actual outflow

300000350000400000

100000150000200000250000300000

Storage Actual Storage

El Vado ReservoirEl Vado Reservoir

35004000

35004000

0500

100015002000250030003500

0500

100015002000250030003500

0

Inflow Actual Inflow

0

Outflow Actual outflow

140000160000180000200000

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000

Storage Actual Storage

Abiquiu ReservoirAbiquiu Reservoir

350040004500

160018002000

0500

100015002000250030003500

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Inflow Actual Inflow Outflow Actual outflow

180000

200000

220000

240000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Storage Actual Storage

Cochiti ReservoirCochiti Reservoir80000

90000

5000

6000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1000

2000

3000

4000

30000

Storage Actual Storage

0

Outflow Actual outflow

4000

5000

6000

0

1000

2000

3000

Inflow Actual Inflow

Current Snow ConditionsCurrent Snow Conditions

Rio Chama Snow DataRio Chama Snow Data

Chamita SNOTEL 2010-11

16

20

reci

p(in

.)

Chamita SNOTEL 2010 11Elev. 8400'

4

8

12

r Equ

ival

ent &

Pr

0

1/1/

2010

2/1/

2010

1/1/

2011

2/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

Snow

Wat

er

1 1 4

10-11 SWE Data Avg. SWE 10-11 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Rio Chama Snow DataRio Chama Snow Data

Cumbres SNOTEL Site 2010-11

20

25

30

cip

(in.)

Elev. 10,400'

10

15

20

Equi

vale

nt &

Pre

0

5

/1/2

010

2/1/

2010

/1/2

011

2/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

Snow

Wat

er E

11 1 2 1 2 3 4 5

10-11 SWE Data Avg. SWE 10-11 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Rio Chama Snow ComparisonRio Chama Snow Comparison

Rio Chama Snowpack Comparison

70

80

90

hes)

Rio Chama Snowpack Comparison

40

50

60

l Bas

in S

WE

(inc

09-10

10

20

30Tota

l

10-11

0

10

11/2

12/2 1/2

2/2

3/2

4/2

5/2

Rio Chama Snow ComparisonRio Chama Snow Comparison

Ri Ch S k C i

60

70

80

ches

)

Rio Chama Snowpack Comparison

40

50

60

l Bas

in S

WE

(inc

Average

10

20

30Tota 10-11

0

11/2

12/2 1/2

2/2

3/2

4/2

5/2

Rio Grande Snow DataRio Grande Snow Data

Upper Rio Grande SNOTEL 2010-11

10

12

14

Prec

ip (i

n.)

Elev. 9,400'

4

6

8

ater

Equ

ival

ent &

0

2

1/1/

2010

2/1/

2010

1/1/

2011

2/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

Snow

Wa

1 1

'10-11 SWE data Avg. SWE '10-11 Precip. data Avg. Precip.

Rio Grande Snow DataRio Grande Snow Data

Wolf Creek Summit SNOTEL 2010-11

30

35

40

Prec

ip (i

n.)

Elev. 11,000'

15

20

25

ater

Equ

ival

ent &

0

5

10

Snow

Wa

11/1

/201

0

12/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

2/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

'10-11 SWE data Avg. SWE '10-11 Precip. data Avg. Precip.

Sangre de Cristo Snow DataSangre de Cristo Snow Data

10

12

Prec

ip (i

n.)

Red River Pass SNOTEL 2010-11Elev. 9,850'

6

8

10

er E

quiv

alen

t & P

0

2

4

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Snow

Wat

e

11/1

/201

0

11/1

5/20

10

11/2

9/20

10

12/1

3/20

10

12/2

7/20

10

1/10

/201

1/24

/201

2/7/

201

2/21

/201

3/7/

201

3/21

/201

4/4/

201

4/18

/201

5/2/

201

5/16

/201

10 11 SWE data Avg SWE 10 11 Precip Avg Precip10-11 SWE data Avg. SWE 10-11 Precip. Avg. Precip.

Sangre de Cristo Snow DataSangre de Cristo Snow Data

Santa Fe SNOTEL 2010-11

12

14

16

18

ecip

(in.

)

Elev. 11,445'

6

8

10

12

r Equ

ival

ent &

Pr

0

2

4

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

Snow

Wat

e r

11/1

/

11/1

5/

11/2

9/

12/1

3/

12/2

7/

1/10

/

1/24

/

2/7/

2/21

/

3/7/

3/21

/

4/4/

4/18

/

5/2/

5/16

/

10-11 SWE data Avg. SWE 10-11 Precip. Avg. Precip.

2011 Water Operations Modeling

March 2003 BiOp Flow Requirements – Dry YearNov 16 – June 15 June 16 – Nov 15

Cochiti

Nov 16 June 15 June 16 Nov 15

Central

Isleta

100 cfs

Isleta

S A iSan Acacia

San Marcial

Major AssumptionsMajor Assumptions• April 1 70% most probable forecast• Dry year target flow requirements• Same monsoon conditions as forecast

hydrograph year• Storage occurs under the EmergencyStorage occurs under the Emergency

Drought Water Agreement for MRGCD & ReclamationReclamation

• Storage of water for Prior & Paramount landslands

April Forecast DataMost

Probable P f

April 1 70% Probability

V l fPercent of Average

Volume, ac-ft (% of avg)

2010 2011 20112010 2011 2011

Rio Grande nr Del Norte 94% 73% 340,000 (64%)

El Vado Reservoir Inflow 97% 71% 144 000 (61%)El Vado Reservoir Inflow 97% 71% 144,000 (61%)

Rio Grande at Otowi 99% 49% 370,000 (39%)

Santa Fe River nr Santa Fe 133% 26% 800 (17%)Santa Fe River nr Santa Fe 133% 26% 800 (17%)

Jemez blw Jemez Dam 102% 18% 5,400 (12%)

Heron Reservoir Inflow 97% 80% 67,000 (54%), ( )

Major ResultsMajor Results• Snowmelt runoff much below normal

BiO fl i t t th h t th• BiOp flow requirements met through out the irrigation seasonS l t l t l l d b• Supplemental water releases already began late-March

• Recreational flows provided for the Rio Chama• Recreational flows provided for the Rio Chama through all of the Summer

• Almost all to all supplemental water exhausted• Almost all to all supplemental water exhausted by end of year

• MRGCD season shortened and/or all storageMRGCD season shortened and/or all storage exhausted

Heron ReservoirHeron Reservoir

Proposed 2011 Heron OperationsStorage Capacity=401,000 ac-ft

290000900

2011 Heron Operations

250000

270000

290000

700

800

900

Total Predicted Inflow = 63,500 ac-ft

210000

230000

250000

400

500

600

rage

[ac-

ft]

ow [c

fs]

Inflow

Outflow

170000

190000

210000

200

300

400

StorFl

o

Storage

150000

170000

0

100

Reservoir will drop 14 feet from beginning of year to end

El Vado ReservoirEl Vado Reservoir

Proposed 2011 El Vado Operations

Storage Capacity= 180,000 ac-ft

160000

1800002500

2011 El Vado Operations

100000

120000

140000

160000

1500

2000

[ac-

ft]

cfs]

Inflow

Outflow

40000

60000

80000

500

1000 Stor

age

Flow

[c Storage

0

20000

0

500

S

ElEl VadoVado Reservoir:Reservoir:

El Vado StorageP&P – 25,000 ac-ftEDW, MRGCD – 18,500 ac-ftEDW, BOR – 12,300 ac-ft

El El VadoVado Reservoir:Reservoir:Lake Level: Dropping from a peak at Lake Level: Dropping from a peak at elevelev. . 6893’ 6893’ to to 6779’ 6779’ by by EOYEOY

ABIQUIU LAKEABIQUIU LAKE

Proposed 2011 Abiquiu OperationsWater Supply SJ-C storage capacity =182,000 ac-ft

1800001600

2011 Abiquiu Operations

170000

175000

1200

1400

Inflow

155000

160000

165000

600

800

1000

Stor

age

[ac-

ft]

Flow

[cfs

] Outflow

Storage

145000

150000

155000

200

400

600

1400000

Estimated Hydrograph at Embudo

2011 Flow at Embudo

500

600

300

400

ow [c

fs]

100

200

Flo

0

COCHITI LAKECOCHITI LAKE

Proposed 2011 Cochiti Operations

2011 Cochiti Operations

53000

53500

1600

1800

51000

51500

52000

52500

800

1000

1200

1400

age

[ac-

ft]

ow [c

fs]

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

49500

50000

50500

51000

200

400

600

800

Stor

a

Flo

49000

49500

0

200

JEMEZ CANYON DAMJEMEZ CANYON DAM

Estimated Hydrograph below Jemez ReservoirReservoir

2011 Flow below Jemez Dam

60

70

40

50

ow [c

fs]

10

20

30Flo

0

Estimated Hydrograph at Central Ave.

2011 Flow at Central Ave Gage

1400

1600

800

1000

1200

ow [c

fs]

200

400

600

Flo

0

200

Estimated Flow at San Acacia

2011 Flow at San Acacia Gage

1600

1800

800

1000

1200

1400

ow [c

fs]

200

400

600

800

Flo

0

200

Proposed Elephant Butte Operationsoposed ep a t utte Ope at o s

2011 Elephant Butte Operations

450000

500000

1600

1800

2000

300000

350000

400000

1000

1200

1400

1600

age

[ac-

ft]

ow [c

fs]

Inflow

Outflow

Storage

150000

200000

250000

200

400

600

800 Stor

a

Flo

100000

150000

0

200

Maximum Elevation = 4338’. Minimum Elevation= 4314’